2004 In Review The Padres moved into a shiny new park in 2004, and all things considered fared much better than the Astros, Phillies, Reds, Pirates and Brewers did upon the opening of their new parks. 87-75 is a nice season, but only good enough for 3rd place in the NL West and 4th place in the NL Wild Card race. Petco Park was a fairly strong pitcher?s park, but not much stronger than the Murph used to be. The Murph gave up more HRs than PetCo, but PetCo?s dimensions allowed for more doubles and triples. Though I?m sure Kevin Towers and Bruce Bochy would rather see Giles/Klesko/Nevin trotting leisurely around the bases after a HR, rather than busting their hump (and pulling a hammy) going for a triple.
Individually, there were a couple of nice stories. Trevor Hoffman came back from injury had a fantastic year (53/8 K/BB ratio). Akinoki Otsuka was nearly unhittable, though one of these days some ump is going to call him for a balk with that funky start/stop delivery. Jake Peavy, at 23, won the NL ERA crown (though arm troubles limited him to just 166.1 innings). And despite losing the ROY to Jason Bay, Khalil Greene lived up to the hype and had a fantastic season with the bat (273/349/446) and with the glove. Bad news? Well, how about this?on a team with Nevin/Klesko/Giles, Mark Loretta had the highest SLG at .495.
2004 Offseason in Review Word was that Towers? number 1 job was to get a fleet footed CF who will run down the balls in the gaps, and that can play small ball to manufacture runs in Petco. Enter Dave Roberts, who should be your 2005 NL stolen base champion.
Quick side note, I?m typing this thing up while sitting on my couch with ESPNews muted on the television. Well, in a span of about 10 minutes they cut away to the various NCAA conference tournaments for interviews with the various coaches. Seemingly every interview with the coach is being done by some smokin? hot sideline reporter. So the question is, when will Playboy do its Girls of ESPN pictorial?
Other major offseason moves include: David Wells leaving the Pads for the BoSox and a dozen jelly-filled Dunkin Donuts, bringing in utility man Eric Young, bringing back Woody Williams, and hoping Darrel May?s gopheritis can be brought under control at Petco.
Catchers Ramon Hernandez had a fine year in San Diego with a 276/341/477 line. He still doesn?t walk much but he did cut his strikeouts by about 45%. Spent over a month on the DL. He has a good shot at being named to the All Star team this year.
First Base Phil Nevin was healthy, call Ripley?s!!! Missed about 160 games on the DL in 2002 and 2003 combined, but managed to get 547 ABs in 2004. Hit pretty well?289/368/492. Even if healthy, his best days are behind him.
Second Base Mark Loretta was one of Hunsicker?s greatest additions, but because the team didn?t make the playoffs in 2002, nobody remembers. He hit 424/481/576 in about 20 games that year, then went to the Padres where he could play everyday. He?s kept right on rolling: 314/372/441 in 2003 and 335/391/495 in 2004. 65 extra-base hits, 58 walks, just 45 strikeouts. My favorite Padre.
Shortstop Greene may be the best SS in the NL by 2006. Not sure if that is a indictment on the state of SS play in the NL or a statement of the quality of Greene?s performance. Along with Peavy he is the future of the franchise.
Third Base The baseball world is waiting for Sean Burroughs to arrive. He?s just 24, but will be entering his 3rd full season in 2005. In over 1200 ABs, he has just 10 career HRs, which isn?t going to cut it for a 3B even if he can hit .290. He?ll be expensive by the time his power fully develops.
Outfield Klesko/Roberts/Giles. OK, I?ll call it right now. Dave Roberts will lead all OFs in putouts in 2005. I really like the move of adding Roberts. He won?t hit much but he?ll put up an OBP of .340 or so and will terrorize pitchers/catchers once he gets on. Like Carlos Beltran, he doesn?t just steal bases, he steals them without getting caught?38 SBs just 3 CS. Giles is in the final year of his contract, so perhaps he?ll return to his 35+ HR ways. Klesko is a butcher in the field, and his shoulder is just slightly better than Bagwell?s, robbing him of his power (just 6 HRs on the road in 2004).
Starters Jake Peavy, Brian Lawrence, Adam Eaton, Woody Williams, Darrel May. Peavy is a legit #1, Eaton has the stuff to be an excellent #2 (think of him playing WaMi to Peavy?s Oswalt), and Lawrence/Williams can both give you 200 IP of better than league average pitching. Darrel May will be a serviceable #5 starter, and to the extent Bochy can limit his pitching to Petco, PacBell and Dodger Stadium, he?ll be better than that.
Bullpen They could make a run at the Dodgers for best bully in the NL. Hoffman/Otsuka/Linebrink combined for about 215 innings and 215 total base runners. Hoffman?s 2.30 ERA was the worse of the bunch, while Linebrink?s 3.19 to 1 K/BB ratio was the worse for that metric. That said, I can?t imagine Linebrink putting up similar stats in 2005, which is why I believe the Dodgers bully is a bit better. Interesting fact about the Padres in 2004?no lefty in the bullpen.
Outlook Think the Padres would like to do the Giles for Bay/Perez deal over again? A Peavy/Perez 1-2 punch would be disgusting. A couple of 24-year olds mowing down the old men in SF and LA would be fun to watch over the next 5 years. Alas, the Way Back machine is on the fritz and once it does get cranking again, I?m using it to place Derek Bell on the expansion draft instead of Abreu and to place Santana on the 40-man after the 1999 season.
Much like the Dodgers and the Giants, most of the offense on the Padres is either old or injury prone. Klesko/Nevin/Giles have to be healthy and productive for the Padres to have a chance. Still not a bad team, but not one that is likely to make a strong run at the playoffs, unless injuries hit both the Dodgers and Giants hard.
Fantasy Projections Assumes an NL-only league, 10 teams, 5x5 rules. Avg/HR/RBI/R/SB. W/K/ERA/WHIP/Saves
Hernandez?270/20/75/60/0. One of the better catcher in the NL to grab, but I have a hard time paying for catchers. I mean, yeah his numbers are better than a guy like Damian Miller, but is it really worth the extra $9 it will take to get him? Me, I?d rather have Abreu/Rolen/Miller than Carlos Lee/Chipper/Ramon Hernandez. He?ll go for $10-$12, but I wouldn?t go higher than $5.
Nevin?285/20/85/75/0. Don?t bid on 500+ ABs, it ain?t gonna happen. A $24 player when playing 150 games, max out around $15 and you?ll be OK.
Loretta?305/10/65/90/5. A solid $18 player. I have him as a #2 hitter, which is why his RBIs are so low. If he drops to #3, boost up the RBI by 10-15 and peg him at $20.
Greene?275/15/75/65/5. $11. If he hits #2, drop the RBI to 60 and boost the runs scored to 85 or so. And max out at $13.
Burroughs?280/10/75/65/5. $9, but the upside is there. When/if he starts hitting for power, he?ll be a $20 player. Not a bad guy to take a chance on in keeper leagues.
Klesko?280/15/85/70/5. $14 for the Donut Truck, whose best days are clearly behind him. He likely has 1 big season left in him, though you won?t be able to tell when it will happen. Note?if you are a big believer in 2nd half stats foretelling the following year?s production then Klesko is your man. 313/420/514 in the 2nd half.
Roberts?280/3/45/95/55. Can he play 145+ games and get his 500+ ABs needed to lead the league in steals? History says ?no?, as his career high in ABs is 422 in 127 games LA in 2002. Given that, the ?proper? value is about $18 or $19. Bidding anything more is a foolish, since you?d be gambling on a 32 year old speedster to set new highs in games played and ABs. Well, I?m nothing if not a fool. Bid up to about $5 less than Juan Pierre would go for. I think $23 or $24 is good value for Roberts since I believe he?ll get those 50+ SBs. And unlike Pierre, he won?t have to get 80 attempts to steal 55 bases. Downside risk?Freddy Guzman.
Giles?295/25/100/90/5. A $25 player who will help you across the board, but won?t dominate any one category. Compare him to another $25 player in Adam Dunn. Dunn will hit 35 points lower, but will crush 20 more home runs. Remember, not all $25 players are the same. If you can spare average but need HRs, go with Dunn. If you need all around help, go for Giles. He is in a contract year.
Peavy?15/200/3.15/1.25/0. Healthy--$22. Odds he?ll pitch 200+ innings aren?t very good. 177 innings in a couple different levels in 2002. 194 innings in 2003. 170 innings in 2004. He?ll turn 24 on May 31st of this year. Here?s why allocating too much money for pitching is foolish?you just don?t know about injuries. Put me down on UNDER 200 innings, and put me down for a final bid of $18.
Eaton?11/165/3.75/1.3/0. A frustrating pitcher who can look dominant one start then like crap the next one. I think he?ll take a step up in 2005, finally dropping his ERA below 4.00. Has done well in lowering his BB rate while maintaining his K rate. Worth $10 now with possible upside of $17 or $18 worth of value. I?d take him and his upside over Weaver or Lowe.
Lawrence?13/110/4.00/1.32/0. One of the worst K rates for any ?good? pitcher. Workhorse though, has gone over 200 innings in each of the past 3 years while never going on the DL. A solid $9, without much upside.
Williams?10/120/4.00/1.31/0. Numerically, he?s worth the same as Lawrence--$9. However, he?s 38 and is slowly but surely losing it. Petco will help him a bit, but I just can?t see the upside with him. He, Eaton and Lawrence are all worth about the same, but Eaton is the guy to focus in on as he is the only one who could break through and put up a really nice year.
May?10/125/4.15/1.35/0. A flyball pitcher who allows too many of those flies to clear the OF wall. Petco will help, but he?ll get pounded on the road. If you can shuffle your lineup, he?s not a bad guy to have. $5, no upside.
Hoffman?4/50/2.75/1.15/40. No longer an ?elite? closer but one who still gets the job done with the best of them. Gagne, Lidge, Benitez, Izzy, and then Hoffman. Closers are often over-bid, so be careful. Worth about $23, but go up to $25 if you need a closer and the Big 4 are gone. But if you grab Hoffman you?ll need to also grab?
Otsuka?9/75/2.50/1.16/5. Insurance against another Hoffman injury, as well as the likely candidate to close out games where Hoffman has pitched too often in recent days. Will also grab close to double digit wins, given the strength of the Padres bullpen. Bid up to $10.
