2004 In Review The Giants had another successful season, being in the playoff hunt until the final game of the season. FrankenBarry had his usual MVP season, and got some surprise help from other geriatrics like JT Snow (36 years old, hitting 327/429/529) and Marquis Grissom (37 years old, hitting 279/323/450), along with nice seasons from Ray Durham (282/364/484) and Pedro Feliz (276/305/485). Despite playing in one of the toughest hitters parks, the Giants scored the 2nd most runs in the league, just 3 less than the NL-leading Cardinals. Of course, with a 362/609/812 monster in the middle of the line-up, you?re going to score some runs.
But in the end it was the pitching that let the team down. Other than Jason Schmidt (3.20 ERA in 225 innings), the other starters for the Giants put up a combined 4.47 ERA. How did their relievers do? 4.53 ERA with an ugly 1.54 WHIP. Matt Herges and Dustin Hermanson combined for 40 saves and an ERA close to 5.00 on the year as ?closers?. Astros fans don?t have to think very hard to come up with 2 key blown saves by Hermanson down the stretch (the Bagwell dribbler/Berkman HR game and the Finley Grand Slam game).
2004 Offseason in Review So the offense is old, but still pretty effective, yet the pitching is suspect. How would you fix it? Of course, you sign 37-year-old Moises Alou, 34-year-old Mike Matheny and 38-year-old Omar Vizquel. To their credit they did nab Armando Benitez to close out games. Seems like Sabean didn?t see any starters he liked on the market so he got the best closer he could and then tried to add defense at SS and C (Vizquel and Matheny instead of Feliz and Pierzynski). One of the oldest teams in the NL just got a lot older.
Catchers AJ Piersynzski pissed of a lot of his teammates and pitchers (never good to do when you are a catcher). Supposedly Brett Tomko called him a cancer (AJ, now with the White Sox, apparently gave some kid $100 after hitting a HR off of Tomko this Spring). Pqrstuvski (fuck it, you know who I mean) went 272/319/410, which Matheny won?t be able to replicate. 3 years, $10.5M is a lot to pay for a defensive-minded catcher. But I think with this particular team it is well worth it. The Giants didn?t get a whole lot out of P-ski last year, so the defensive upgrade is probably worth the loss of offense, considering they added Alou to replace Michael Tucker?s 450 ABs.
First Base JT Snow shocked everyone by having a career year at the age of 36. With the signing of Omar Vizquel at SS, look for Pedro Feliz to get some ABs over here at 1B. A platoon seems likely?Snow hit about 75 points higher versus righties and Feliz about 25 points higher versus lefties.
Second Base While his days of stealing 25+ bases a year are over, Ray Durham is still a valuable leadoff hitter. However, he?s missed about 40 games a year the past two seasons. He?s 33 so he may start fading fast. Weird?he slugged .484 last year. That?s higher than Bagwell, Brian Giles, Lyle Overbay and Cliff Floyd.
Shortstop I went to a Spring Training game at Chain-o-Lakes Stadium in 2003, and Vizquel was easily the most popular Indian there. It was Vizquel bobblehead day, so that was a nice souvenir to pick up. Omar had a pretty good 2004 campaign?hitting .291 and swiping 19 bases. If he can repeat his .353 OBP hitting between Durham and Bonds, he?ll score 100 runs. Neifi Perez didn?t give them much in 2004?232/276/295 (though he did serious damage to the Astros in the 2nd game of the season) but Devei Cruz actually had a pretty damn fine year?292/322/431. He?ll be pretty valuable as a backup in case Omar gets hurt.
Third Base Remember when Edgardo Alfonzo was an MVP candidate and a gold glove caliber 2B? Now he?s a Punch and Judy 3rd sacker (289/350/407) whose back seems ready to go out on him at any time. Extra base hits have been declining over the past 3 seasons from 42 to 40 to 38 last year. If he continues to lose power, look for Pedro Feliz to get some ABs over here.
Outfield I gotta admit, I am excited to see this outfield play some defense. Your 2005 SF Giants outfield (from left to right): FrankenBarry?Marquis Grissom?Piss Hands. Pac Bell?s vast right-center field power alley and quirky design make for a bunch of triples. Having these guys man the OF makes things even worse. Which OF would be worse defensively?Biggio/Lane/Berkman or Bonds/Grissom/Alou. You make the call!!!
Offensively, if Alou is healthy he?ll produce crazy numbers hitting behind Barry. One of 2004?s biggest shocks, from a stats perspective, was Alou getting over 600 ABs. No way that repeats in 2005. Grissom has lost a step or two but he still is a productive offensive player, cranking out 50 extra-base hits in 2004. Bonds is amazing and will once again put up numbers that are unreal. He?ll likely go something like 320/500/750 and people will consider that a step back.
Starters Jason Schmidt, Noah Lowry, Kirk Rueter, Brett Tomko and Jerome Williams. Williams may eventually become a solid #2 pitcher and Lowry was a pleasant surprise, but Tomko and Rueter are just plain awful. Other than munching 400 innings, they aren?t going to do much for the Giants this season. Jesse Foppert started his post-Tommy John comeback last year. If he progresses rapidly, look for the Giants to cut either Tomko or Rueter.
Bullpen Thankfully, Hermaphrodite is off to the White Sux while Armando Benitez assumes the role of closer. Benitez has been pretty solid for a long time. Despite being passed around like a joint at a Bob Marley concert in 2003, he was successful at every stop: 3.10 era with the Mets, 1.94 with the Yanks and 3.15 with the Mariners. He bumped his K/BB ratio to about 3:1 which was a huge part o his 1.29 ERA in 2004. Look for David Aardsma to make a bid for the setup job.
Outlook As long as Bonds is healthy, the Giants will be in the thick of things. The bully should be better with Benitez and Aardsma instead of Herges and Hermanson. The starting pitching (other than Schmidt) is still below average. Offensively, the health of the gray beards is the only glaring question. Every starter is either old or has a history of health issues. Feliz and Tucker are the main backups, so expect them to get plenty of work. I think the winner of the division will be the one (of the Giants and Dodgers) that is healthier. If both teams are equally healthy, I?d give the edge to the Giants because of Bonds. The Clear does a body good, yo!
Fantasy Projections Assumes an NL-only league, 10 teams, 5x5 rules. Avg/HR/RBI/R/SB. W/K/ERA/WHIP/Saves
Matheny?245/7/40/35/0. A $1 catcher, and one with the least amount of upside. Stay away unless he?s all that is left.
Snow?270/10/85/60/3. His overall value depends where he hits in the lineup and how much playing time he loses to Feliz. I?m assuming he?ll bat5th (Durham-Vizquel-Bonds-Alou-Snow-Grissom), getting plenty of RBIs after Bonds is walked. I?m also assuming he gets 450 ABs. If he bats 2nd you can drop his RBIs to 55 but increase his runs to 85 or 90. A $10 player without much upside.
Durham?285/12/60/105/10. The speed is gone but still a good table setter (can pretty much guarantee a .360-.365 OBP). Hitting in front of Bonds and Alou will result in lots of runs scored. Would probably lead the league in runs scored if he could be counted on for 150 games. Worth about $18 or so, but perhaps you can pick him up a bit cheaper in your league since he?s missed so much time the last 2 years. Probably at least one disgruntles former Durham-owner who bid $25 only to see him on the DL for a month. Don?t bid expecting the 150 games.
Vizquel?270/5/40/85/15. Again, I?m assuming he hits 2nd. I?d stop the bidding at $10 because there are other middle infielder that bring the same thing to the table as Vizquel. Probably worth a bit more but Devei Cruz showed he was a valuable backup and Vizquel will turn 38 in April. Expect 450-500 ABs.
Alfonzo?275/10/65/50/5. Looks like the #7 hitter in the lineup. With Matheny/Pitcher/Durham behind him, the runs won?t be there. And with Alou/Snow(Feliz)/Grissom between him and Bonds, the RBI opportunities won?t be there either. Especially when an IBB to Alfonzo gets you Matheny/Pitcher. $8 or less.
Bonds-335/40/95/130/5. The BBs deflate his value as he won?t get a chance to drive in many runs. Best player in real life, about #5 or #6 in fantasy baseball. $30.
Grissom?270/17/90/75/5. Also turns 38 in April, but has gotten 550+ ABs the last 2 years. Bump up his RBIs if he hits 5th behind Bonds/Alou. $14.
Alou?285/20/100/80/0. $16 since you can?t expect him to play in 150+ games again (though he has the past 2 seasons). If he plays 150 games, he?ll be worth $23 or $24 and will drive in 130 runs. Note?hit just 10 HRs away from Wrigley last year (his 29 led the NL in HRs at home).
Feliz?270/15/60/45/3. I don?t think he?ll repeat 2004?s 503 ABs. He?ll spell Snow at 1B and Alfonzo at 3B, probably generating about 350 ABs. Don?t over-bid here. He won?t get the playing time. $10 only if he qualifies at SS in your league (19 games last year). $8 otherwise. At 500+ ABs he?s worth about $14.
Schmidt?18/210/3.05/1.18/0. Stud. Bid full value. $27.
Rueter?10/75/4.65/1.45/0. Keep away. Unless you need innings, keep far away. $1.
Tomko?12/110/4.50/1.40/0. A step up from Rueter but not much. $1. Don?t let his ERA fool you. Pac Bell helped him cut his HRs nearly in half.
Lowry?13/140/3.85/1.28/0. Someone who could take a nice step up. Just 24 years old. $12 is what he?s worth but see if you can?t get him for around $10.
Williams?12/140/4.05/1.30/0. Pretty much a notch below Lowry all the way across the board. Max out at $10 but try to get him for $8.
Benitez?4/65/2.25/1.15/40. Top 5 closer in the NL. You?ll need to pay $25 to get him. Worth about $23 (that strikeout rate is declining).
