Author Topic: Ausmus  (Read 5474 times)

astrox

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Ausmus
« on: June 15, 2006, 07:05:06 pm »
Of all qualified Catchers, Ausmus is the worst at caught stealing percentage at a lowly .133, but 5th in fielding percent at .995.  Today was a prime example of teams picking up on that with Pierre stealing 4 bases.  If it weren't the Cubs, those stolen bases would have been very hard to overcome.

Everyone always raves about his defense and that offense from your catcher isn't what you're looking for, well now he's got great offensive production but his defense is sucking.
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MusicMan

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2006, 07:08:24 pm »
Who wants the first swing at this pinata?

Please limit your destruction of this post to one of three points:

1.  New thread for existing discussion
2.  Poor use of statistics
3.  Lack of understanding of a catcher's "defense"
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2006, 07:09:44 pm »
Yawn.

Call me when Aramis Ramirez steals four bases.

astrox

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2006, 07:16:16 pm »
Quote:

Who wants the first swing at this pinata?

Please limit your destruction of this post to one of three points:

1.  New thread for existing discussion
2.  Poor use of statistics
3.  Lack of understanding of a catcher's "defense"





1.  Failed to see existing discussion
2.  So his poor CS%, is of no importance?
3.  Should have clarified, not that it would have mattereed.  My main point was that with poor CS% but pretty good fielding percent mixed in with how he calls a great game makes it frustrating to know what to do.  On top of all that, he is having a great year offensively.

Or something like that.
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Arky Vaughan

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2006, 07:16:58 pm »
The Astros are middle of the pack in OBP allowed at .333, i.e., they have an average number of baserunners:

The Link

They're middle of the pack in stolen bases allowed, at 35:

The Link

They're toward the bottom of the pack in caught stealing, at 10:

The Link

So, despite having a roughly average number of baserunners, and not throwing out that many, they're still not that bad off in allowing stolen bases.

Ausmus isn't what he once was, but something, perhaps his reputation, is keeping the Astros from being overwhelmed with stolen bases.

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2006, 07:21:24 pm »
Quote:

...2.  So his poor CS%, is of no importance?...





Nope, the number you want to look at is the total steals.  Theoretical steals don't do nothing.

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2006, 07:21:35 pm »
Arky.  In addition to Ausmus' reputation, Pettite has a pretty good pickoff move so you probably won't have a lot of stolen base attempts when he pitchers.  What distubed me over the past few days is that the Cubs were able to steal on a pickoff last night and today on a pitch out.

It seems that when we are talking about Ausmus' defensive abilities these days, we are largely referring to his ability to call a game, to calm down pitchers, and to block balls in the dirt (although with respect to the latter it appears like his skills are diminished as well).
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2006, 07:25:13 pm »
Quote:

My main point was that with poor CS% but pretty good fielding percent mixed in with how he calls a great game makes it frustrating to know what to do.




Catcher's fielding percentage is about as irrelevant a statistic as I can think of.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2006, 07:31:16 pm »
you are showing your ass, but i'll bet you do that often.

todd, you've been almost sane for quite a while, but that post is nuts.

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2006, 07:52:27 pm »
Quote:

Arky.  In addition to Ausmus' reputation, Pettite has a pretty good pickoff move so you probably won't have a lot of stolen base attempts when he pitchers.  What distubed me over the past few days is that the Cubs were able to steal on a pickoff last night and today on a pitch out.

It seems that when we are talking about Ausmus' defensive abilities these days, we are largely referring to his ability to call a game, to calm down pitchers, and to block balls in the dirt (although with respect to the latter it appears like his skills are diminished as well).





Ausmus is 36 years old and has caught more than 13,000 innings, so it should come as no surprise if his defense is not what it once was.

What's interesting is that this year and last year Ausmus has seen his lowest rate of stolen base attempts in his career.

Over his career, Ausmus has averaged a stolen base attempt every 11 innings. Last year, it was one every 19 innings, and this year, it's one every 14 innings.

This year, Ausmus has allowed a stolen base once every 16 innings. Over his career, that average has been one stolen base every 17 innings. So, he's not being stolen on all that frequently, either.

The real difference is that over his career, Ausmus has thrown out a runner once every 30 innings. This year, the average is once every 118 innings.

So there's your downside: Ausmus is allowing stolen bases at a rate per inning not much different than his career. But he's throwing out baserunners about a quarter as often as he has over his career.

At the current rates against him, Ausmus would probably allow only about five more stolen bases this season than his career average. But he would also throw out about 28 fewer runners this season than his career average.

If he were throwing out 36 percent of baserunners, as he has over his career, that would be 12 more caught stealing, and 12 fewer stolen bases allowed. But even Ausmus is human.

Here are his career numbers: The Link

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2006, 07:55:07 pm »
Quote:

you are showing your ass, but i'll bet you do that often.

todd, you've been almost sane for quite a while, but that post is nuts.

sports fans, runners steal on pitchers.





True, but in his prime, Ausmus, like Ivan Rodriguez, was extremely effective in throwing out base runners season to season, even as the pitching staffs changed. If a pitcher gives a good catcher a chance, the catcher's arm can make a difference.

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2006, 09:02:58 pm »
Jim.  Am I missing something?  Do you think that Ausmus is as good at blocking pitches as he was a couple of years ago?  Just based on watching him, I don't think he is.

So what are his other defensive skills?  He's never been great at blocking the plate.  And he isn't as adept at throwing out runners as he once was.  I agree that players steal off of pitchers, but are you suggesting that his pitchers were so much better at holding runners when Ausmus was throwing out runners at a 40%+ clip?

Ausmus is what he is.  He's smart.  He calls a great game.  And the pitchers love and trust him.  That's pretty good.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2006, 09:31:53 pm »
I understand he's pretty handsome too.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2006, 09:58:47 pm »
yes, you are missing something. a lot. i cannot understand it for you and will not try.

he is fantastic at blocking pitches in the dirt. he does not block the plate in the traditional way, but he get the outs. i do not know about his CS % and do not care. if the pitchers were better at holding runners, his % would be better. Pierre will steal on everyone.

what would you complain about if everything were perfect? a thread like this makes absolutely no sense to me.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #14 on: June 16, 2006, 12:41:34 am »
 and to block balls in the dirt (although with respect to the latter it appears like his skills are diminished as well).

I've seen nothing of the sort.   I did see Ausmus try and backhand a ball...and miss it horribly...and there was actually a runner on first that advanced.  This was a couple weeks ago (IIRC), and I was stunned.  Why stunned?  Because it was the first time I've ever seen him try that with a runner on.  Even Ausmus can fuck up every once and awhile.  I'm absolutely thrilled with his play this season, even if he is all washed up (wink, wink).

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #15 on: June 16, 2006, 02:57:19 am »
Quote:


2.  So his poor CS%, is of no importance?





It's not that it's not important, it's that it's not particularly descriptive of Ausmus.  Like pitching wins, CS% is affected by many things.  If a pitcher is 4-8 with a 2.97 ERA, would you say he's sucking because he has a poor winning %?  Of course not.  You also wouldn't say a catcher sucks because of a poor CS%.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #16 on: June 16, 2006, 10:19:05 am »
Wait.  So, I know this sounds crazy, but you mean, baserunners think he's good.  So the only ones that try to steal are the fast guys?  And so, like, it's harder to throw them out.  Or something.  Is that it?

Or, as someone else said above, "wake me up when Aramis Ramirez steals 4 bases."
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #17 on: June 16, 2006, 10:24:44 am »
Quote:

Quote:

...2.  So his poor CS%, is of no importance?...





Nope, the number you want to look at is the total steals.  Theoretical steals don't do nothing.





Well, they are runners erased, right? From the other thread, you compare Estrada and Ausmus -- same number of successful steals against, but Estrada has thrown out more runners. Wouldn't Estrada's numbers in this department be preferable, because he's taken more runners off the basepath?
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #18 on: June 16, 2006, 10:35:14 am »
how on earth do you know without more analysis than reciting a number?

1. who is stealing the bases--legitimate base stealers or are entire teams running?
2. how many were on pitchouts or easily handled fastballs?
3. what pitch did the pitcher throw on the steal--fastball or offspeed or breaking pitch?
4. where was the pitch--in a spot where the catcher could easily catch and throw or in a spot where he had to lunge or throw off-balace?
5. were any of the pitches in the dirt or wild pitches?
6. did the infielder mishandle an otherwise good throw?
7. did the hitter impede the throw in some way?
8. how many of the base stealers scored after stealing the base?
9. what was the score at the time of the steal?
10. did the first and third defensive call dictate that no throw be made to second?
11. how well did the pitcher hold the runner to prevent a good jump?

the CS% does not, in and of itself, mean bad defense.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2006, 10:44:41 am »
Quote:

I understand he's pretty handsome too.




Outsports Magazine readers think so. The Link

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2006, 10:45:42 am »
Quote:

how on earth do you know without more analysis than reciting a number?

1. who is stealing the bases--legitimate base stealers or are entire teams running?
2. how many were on pitchouts or easily handled fastballs?
3. what pitch did the pitcher throw on the steal--fastball or offspeed or breaking pitch?
4. where was the pitch--in a spot where the catcher could easily catch and throw or in a spot where he had to lunge or throw off-balace?
5. were any of the pitches in the dirt or wild pitches?
6. did the infielder mishandle an otherwise good throw?
7. did the hitter impede the throw in some way?
8. how many of the base stealers scored after stealing the base?
9. what was the score at the time of the steal?
10. did the first and third defensive call dictate that no throw be made to second?
11. how well did the pitcher hold the runner to prevent a good jump?

the CS% does not, in and of itself, mean bad defense.





Jiminy Cricket!  You'd have to watch a game to see all of that.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2006, 10:48:20 am »
Way to muddy up that crystal clear water, Jim.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2006, 11:20:09 am »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

...2.  So his poor CS%, is of no importance?...





Nope, the number you want to look at is the total steals.  Theoretical steals don't do nothing.




Well, they are runners erased, right? From the other thread, you compare Estrada and Ausmus -- same number of successful steals against, but Estrada has thrown out more runners. Wouldn't Estrada's numbers in this department be preferable, because he's taken more runners off the basepath?





Of course not.  Having a good throwing catcher isn't about getting extra outs, it's about preventing steals.  If Catcher A is 2 out of 10 throwing out runners in 1,000 innings and Catcher B is 20 out of 100, who would you take?
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #23 on: June 16, 2006, 11:27:16 am »
i'll say again that i never understand threads like this. Ausmus wins a game with the clutchest of clutch hits so some yahoo starts a "yeah, but his defense sucks" thread.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #24 on: June 16, 2006, 11:32:30 am »
Quote:

i'll say again that i never understand threads like this. Ausmus wins a game with the clutchest of clutch hits so some yahoo starts a "yeah, but his defense sucks" thread.




I'm kinda glad they do, though.  Us yahoos sometimes learn something from threads like this.  

The Astros only keep Ausmus around for his offense anyway.  and for BudGirl.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #25 on: June 16, 2006, 11:43:56 am »
Quote:

i'll say again that i never understand threads like this. Ausmus wins a game with the clutchest of clutch hits so some yahoo starts a "yeah, but his defense sucks" thread.




Won't be long before someone's here to give us the stats about why contending teams can't afford to trade defense up the middle just to get a .300 hitter in the lineup.  Some people are just born to bitch and will always find a way.
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MusicMan

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #26 on: June 16, 2006, 11:48:14 am »
8 of 9 and the Royals coming to town.

Enjoy the ride, folks.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #27 on: June 16, 2006, 12:57:37 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

...2.  So his poor CS%, is of no importance?...





Nope, the number you want to look at is the total steals.  Theoretical steals don't do nothing.




Well, they are runners erased, right? From the other thread, you compare Estrada and Ausmus -- same number of successful steals against, but Estrada has thrown out more runners. Wouldn't Estrada's numbers in this department be preferable, because he's taken more runners off the basepath?





Of course not.  Having a good throwing catcher isn't about getting extra outs, it's about preventing steals.  If Catcher A is 2 out of 10 throwing out runners in 1,000 innings and Catcher B is 20 out of 100, who would you take?




The scenario I asked about was more this: Runners are 5 for 10 against Catcher A, and 5 for 20 against Catcher B. Other things equal, Catcher B's numbers would be preferable.

Jim, I completely agree - if assessing whether Catcher A or B was better defensively, then all those things should be asked and answered, along with a lot of things that have nothing to do with stealing. That wasn't my point; sorry I wasn't clear.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #28 on: June 16, 2006, 01:11:04 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

...2.  So his poor CS%, is of no importance?...





Nope, the number you want to look at is the total steals.  Theoretical steals don't do nothing.




Well, they are runners erased, right? From the other thread, you compare Estrada and Ausmus -- same number of successful steals against, but Estrada has thrown out more runners. Wouldn't Estrada's numbers in this department be preferable, because he's taken more runners off the basepath?





Of course not.  Having a good throwing catcher isn't about getting extra outs, it's about preventing steals.  If Catcher A is 2 out of 10 throwing out runners in 1,000 innings and Catcher B is 20 out of 100, who would you take?




The scenario I asked about was more this: Runners are 5 for 10 against Catcher A, and 5 for 20 against Catcher B. Other things equal, Catcher B's numbers would be preferable.

Jim, I completely agree - if assessing whether Catcher A or B was better defensively, then all those things should be asked and answered, along with a lot of things that have nothing to do with stealing. That wasn't my point; sorry I wasn't clear.




A catcher that discourages runners from even trying won't put up numbers to show that.  Runners will only go when they're sure they can make it.

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #29 on: June 16, 2006, 01:17:07 pm »
Quote:


The scenario I asked about was more this: Runners are 5 for 10 against Catcher A, and 5 for 20 against Catcher B. Other things equal, Catcher B's numbers would be preferable.





Well of course.  It kind of goes without saying that in theory you'd rather allow 5 SB with a 75% CS rate than allowing 5 SB with a 50% rate.  That's like saying if you've got two pitchers both with an ERA of 1.97, and one's record is 15-5 and the other's is 10-10, all esle being equal, you'd rather have the 15-5 guy's numbers.  But that's not what I read from your first post.  The argument in this thread seems to be that Ausmus sucks because he has a low CS%.  While poor defensive catchers often do have low CS percentages, a low percentage is by no means diagnostic of a poor defensive catcher.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #30 on: June 16, 2006, 01:25:08 pm »
Quote:

A catcher that discourages runners from even trying won't put up numbers to show that.  Runners will only go when they're sure they can make it.




see also outfield assists... a right fielder known to have a strong accurate arm won't have as many guys try him, and so won't have as many assists.
Someone known to have a weak, or inaccurate arm, will have more guys try.

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #31 on: June 16, 2006, 01:40:59 pm »
Quote:

see also outfield assists... a right fielder known to have a strong accurate arm won't have as many guys try him, and so won't have as many assists.
Someone known to have a weak, or inaccurate arm, will have more guys try.




I believe Biggio, in his first year in CF, lead the league in OF assists quite deep into the season.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #32 on: June 16, 2006, 02:17:09 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

see also outfield assists... a right fielder known to have a strong accurate arm won't have as many guys try him, and so won't have as many assists.
Someone known to have a weak, or inaccurate arm, will have more guys try.




I believe Biggio, in his first year in CF, lead the league in OF assists quite deep into the season.





Soriano has 10 so far.

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #33 on: June 16, 2006, 03:04:39 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

I believe Biggio, in his first year in CF, lead the league in OF assists quite deep into the season.




Soriano has 10 so far.





From the looks of things, Jacque Jones ought to get quite a few opportunities.  What were those, 8-hoppers to the plate from short right?  Yeccchh.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #34 on: June 17, 2006, 10:06:50 pm »
Brownie reported tonight that Officer Brad showed up early today for the second day in a row to work on his throws to second.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #35 on: June 17, 2006, 10:42:12 pm »
U FOO! What the heck are you trying to start? Pierre is probably the fastest person in baseball. I think our pitchers need to learn to keep the runners closer. I don't know about everyone else, but I'm glad Ausmus is on our team.

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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #36 on: June 19, 2006, 12:05:14 am »
Quote:

Quote:

I understand he's pretty handsome too.




Outsports Magazine readers think so. The Link

Of course, I came upon that link via a google search. I've never heard of the magazine, if it really exists... NTTAWWI.





Wow, he beat Modano in the first round.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #37 on: June 19, 2006, 12:11:52 am »
well you should know.  Passing as a gay male just so you could stuff the ballot.  Despicable.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #38 on: June 19, 2006, 01:22:35 pm »
That's not so surprising- if you notice, Brad was the #1 seed in that bracket. If he'd lost to the #16 seed it would've been a huge upset.
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Re: Ausmus
« Reply #39 on: June 19, 2006, 02:06:59 pm »
Quote:

That's not so surprising- if you notice, Brad was the #1 seed in that bracket. If he'd lost to the #16 seed it would've been a huge upset.




I don't think Modano should have been a 16 seed.  I do think Brad is hotter than Mike, but both are pretty special.

One thing Mike has going for him is that he isn't married.
''I just did an interview with someone I like more than you. I used a lot of big words on him. I don't have anything left for you.'' --Brad Ausmus

Well behaved women rarely make history.