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Author Topic: HOF odds?  (Read 7968 times)

Zan

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HOF odds?
« on: April 13, 2006, 12:15:18 am »
Let me state upfront that these questions (however stupid) are genuinely put:

1. Is there a source for betting on a player making the HOF?
2. If so, what are the odds for Berkman and Oswalt?
3. Do you think Berkman and/or Oswalt will make the Hall?
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jasonact

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2006, 12:24:34 am »
Quote:

Let me state upfront that these questions (however stupid) are genuinely put:

1. Is there a source for betting on a player making the HOF?
2. If so, what are the odds for Berkman and Oswalt?
3. Do you think Berkman and/or Oswalt will make the Hall?



1. Probably, but it's probably very shady.
2. My guess better for Oswalt than Berkman, but it's WAY too early and useless to say for either.
3. No way to give an accurate guess at this time.

I'm glad you recognize the stupidity of the questions, but I wonder why you decided to post them in the first place.
...
Okay. Finished wondering.
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mihoba

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2006, 12:26:43 am »
Quote:

3. Do you think Berkman and/or Oswalt will make the Hall?



Much too early to tell. However, if they keep up the pace and remain healthy for another 10 years or so, maybe.
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pravata

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2006, 12:28:42 am »
Oswalt on the Hall of Fame. "It's a building with names in it, to me,"
The Link
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astro pete

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2006, 12:33:54 am »
Quote:

Oswalt on the Hall of Fame. "It's a building with names in it, to me,"
The Link



I'm hoping for a boy.
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Zan

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #5 on: April 13, 2006, 12:41:11 am »
Quote:


I'm glad you recognize the stupidity of the questions, but I wonder why you decided to post them in the first place.




3 reasons:
1)I was just curious people's take on how long they'll maintain this dominance.
2)I'm fantasizing about my kids growing up with a studly HOF tandem, like I did with Bagwell and Bidge.  
3)Asking stupid questions doesn't bother me.
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Ankh

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2006, 01:34:56 am »
baseball-reference.com has a cute little "similar players at current age" list for every player. In this case, Oswalt is most similar to Tim Hudson and Mike Mussina, and Berkman to Tim Salmon and Magglio Ordonez.

Just ask yourself if those guys are HoF worthy.  In this case, sure, Berkman and Oswalt are on track for HoF careers, but they need *many* more years of sustained excellence to be considered.
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Zan

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #7 on: April 13, 2006, 11:58:44 am »
Quote:

baseball-reference.com has a cute little "similar players at current age" list for every player. In this case, Oswalt is most similar to Tim Hudson and Mike Mussina, and Berkman to Tim Salmon and Magglio Ordonez.

Just ask yourself if those guys are HoF worthy.  In this case, sure, Berkman and Oswalt are on track for HoF careers, but they need *many* more years of sustained excellence to be considered.



Thanks.

Baseless, wild speculation doesn?t bother me, because I don?t take baseball opinions seriously anyways. I figure everything stated about baseball is all in good fun, regardless, because it?s ultimately unimportant. So I wanted to know if people?s gut suggests they?ll make the HoF or not.
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JimR

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2006, 12:17:42 pm »
baseball is not ultimately unimportant, junior. to many here, it is very important.
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HudsonHawk

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2006, 12:45:23 pm »
Quote:

baseball is not ultimately unimportant, junior. to many here, it is very important.



And to those who earn a living and support a family from it, it's even more important.
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Arky Vaughan

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2006, 12:48:23 pm »
Quote:

Let me state upfront that these questions (however stupid) are genuinely put:

1. Is there a source for betting on a player making the HOF?
2. If so, what are the odds for Berkman and Oswalt?
3. Do you think Berkman and/or Oswalt will make the Hall?



Here are some names to think about as you ponder these questions yourself:

Dwight Gooden
Daryl Strawberry
Dale Murphy
Don Mattingly
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otterj

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2006, 12:49:57 pm »
Baseball opinions are very important?
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HudsonHawk

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2006, 12:55:47 pm »
Quote:

Baseball opinions are very important?



To some people, very much so.
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astro pete

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2006, 12:56:59 pm »
Sam Kellerman, on sports:

 
Quote:

 Sports is man's joke on God, Max. You see, God says to man, 'I've created a universe where it seems like everything matters, where you'll have to grapple with life and death and in the end you'll die anyway, and it won't really matter.' So man says to God, 'Oh, yeah? Within your universe we're going to create a sub-universe called sports, one that absolutely doesn't matter, and we'll follow everything that happens in it as if it were life and death.'"

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HudsonHawk

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2006, 01:12:52 pm »
Quote:

Sam Kellerman, on sports:

 
Quote:

 Sports is man's joke on God, Max. You see, God says to man, 'I've created a universe where it seems like everything matters, where you'll have to grapple with life and death and in the end you'll die anyway, and it won't really matter.' So man says to God, 'Oh, yeah? Within your universe we're going to create a sub-universe called sports, one that absolutely doesn't matter, and we'll follow everything that happens in it as if it were life and death.'"





You could make that argument about anything.  Education doesn't matter, commerce doesn't matter, science doesn't matter.  None of that is "life and death"; therefore, it absolutely doen't matter.
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pravata

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2006, 01:21:09 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Baseball opinions are very important?



To some people, very much so.



You'd think the topic would be of some importance to anyone who spends any time in a forum especially designated for baseball opinions. It'd be pretty stupid to do so otherwise.  This renders even more pathetic the misguided trolls who are advising us to "get a life".
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otterj

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2006, 01:22:04 pm »
I love the smell of baseball and existentialism in the morning...
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astro pete

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2006, 01:22:38 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Sam Kellerman, on sports:

 
Quote:

 Sports is man's joke on God, Max. You see, God says to man, 'I've created a universe where it seems like everything matters, where you'll have to grapple with life and death and in the end you'll die anyway, and it won't really matter.' So man says to God, 'Oh, yeah? Within your universe we're going to create a sub-universe called sports, one that absolutely doesn't matter, and we'll follow everything that happens in it as if it were life and death.'"





You could make that argument about anything.  Education doesn't matter, commerce doesn't matter, science doesn't matter.  None of that is "life and death"; therefore, it absolutely doen't matter.



And he probably did.  But, I bet he also recognized the difference between sports and, say, education.
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Jacksonian

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2006, 01:25:13 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Sam Kellerman, on sports:

 
Quote:

 Sports is man's joke on God, Max. You see, God says to man, 'I've created a universe where it seems like everything matters, where you'll have to grapple with life and death and in the end you'll die anyway, and it won't really matter.' So man says to God, 'Oh, yeah? Within your universe we're going to create a sub-universe called sports, one that absolutely doesn't matter, and we'll follow everything that happens in it as if it were life and death.'"





You could make that argument about anything.  Education doesn't matter, commerce doesn't matter, science doesn't matter.  None of that is "life and death"; therefore, it absolutely doen't matter.



And he probably did.  But, I bet he also recognized the difference between sports and, say, education.



In many ways sports provides education.
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BizidyDizidy

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2006, 01:26:27 pm »
From that existentialist perspective, explain the difference between sports and education.
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astro pete

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2006, 01:26:42 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Sam Kellerman, on sports:

 
Quote:

 Sports is man's joke on God, Max. You see, God says to man, 'I've created a universe where it seems like everything matters, where you'll have to grapple with life and death and in the end you'll die anyway, and it won't really matter.' So man says to God, 'Oh, yeah? Within your universe we're going to create a sub-universe called sports, one that absolutely doesn't matter, and we'll follow everything that happens in it as if it were life and death.'"





You could make that argument about anything.  Education doesn't matter, commerce doesn't matter, science doesn't matter.  None of that is "life and death"; therefore, it absolutely doen't matter.



And he probably did.  But, I bet he also recognized the difference between sports and, say, education.



In many ways sports provides education.



I agree with that.
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jasonact

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2006, 01:27:48 pm »
Quote:

Sam Kellerman, on sports:

 
Quote:

 Sports is man's joke on God, Max. You see, God says to man, 'I've created a universe where it seems like everything matters, where you'll have to grapple with life and death and in the end you'll die anyway, and it won't really matter.' So man says to God, 'Oh, yeah? Within your universe we're going to create a sub-universe called sports, one that absolutely doesn't matter, and we'll follow everything that happens in it as if it were life and death.'"





Very good quote. Ultimately, very little actually matters, even most if not all of our careers. We like to think they matter because it helps us achieve some peace in the struggle to determine the meaning of life.
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HudsonHawk

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2006, 01:29:08 pm »
Quote:


And he probably did.  But, I bet he also recognized the difference between sports and, say, education.



In his world, there is no difference.  You end up dead either way, and neither sports nor education changes that.
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astro pete

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2006, 01:32:44 pm »
Quote:



Very good quote. Ultimately, very little actually matters, even most if not all of our careers. We like to think they matter because it helps us achieve some peace in the struggle to determine the meaning of life.



It's from this week's Sports Illustrated.  I think everyone here probably agrees on the proper place athletics occupy in the grand scheme of life, but with no new Clarks popping in today, we're left with nothing better to argue about.
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astro pete

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2006, 01:35:34 pm »
Quote:

Quote:


And he probably did.  But, I bet he also recognized the difference between sports and, say, education.



In his world, there is no difference.  You end up dead either way, and neither sports nor education changes that.



Well, he is dead, and he was just being funny.
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jasonact

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #25 on: April 13, 2006, 01:36:30 pm »
Quote:

From that existentialist perspective, explain the difference between sports and education.



There is little real existential difference. I think it depends on how you define education. Some consider baseball and sports in general a kind of necessary life education that undergirds our humanity. Others see education in a more formal, hierarchical way. The drive for human betterment, which might but does not necessarily include education, is essential. Not for its own sake but because of the inherent drives of humanity, such as the essential drive to exist.

Ultimately, the difference depends on how one defines education and whether or not sports meet that criteria. They are both means to an end, the end being a drive to survive through human betterment. For some, sports meet that criteria and are meaningful. For others, it doesn't and, therefore, is meaningless.
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BizidyDizidy

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #26 on: April 13, 2006, 01:41:57 pm »
What does "better" mean?
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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #27 on: April 13, 2006, 01:44:38 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Sam Kellerman, on sports:

 
Quote:

 Sports is man's joke on God, Max. You see, God says to man, 'I've created a universe where it seems like everything matters, where you'll have to grapple with life and death and in the end you'll die anyway, and it won't really matter.' So man says to God, 'Oh, yeah? Within your universe we're going to create a sub-universe called sports, one that absolutely doesn't matter, and we'll follow everything that happens in it as if it were
life and death.'"





You could make that argument about anything.  Education doesn't matter, commerce doesn't matter, science doesn't matter.  None of that is "life and death"; therefore, it absolutely doen't matter.




It's not like sports are more important than cardio-vascular surgery......O.K. Baseball is but soccer and other stupid sports aren't.
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jasonact

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #28 on: April 13, 2006, 01:52:18 pm »
Quote:

What does "better" mean?



It all has to do with the drive to survive. "Better" is a subjective idea that someone believes will somehow prolong one's life, even by the smallest of margins. In reality, however, most of those efforts are fruitless or even counterproductive.
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BizidyDizidy

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #29 on: April 13, 2006, 02:05:58 pm »
So living longer is better? Why?

This whole conversation is probably dumb, but the point is that when you adopt the existentialist perspective there is no criteria for judging "better" whatsoever.
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S.P. Rodriguez

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #30 on: April 13, 2006, 02:35:01 pm »
Quote:

So living longer is better? Why?

This whole conversation is probably dumb, but the point is that when you adopt the existentialist perspective there is no criteria for judging "better" whatsoever.



You're right, it is...
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astro pete

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #31 on: April 13, 2006, 02:38:59 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

So living longer is better? Why?

This whole conversation is probably dumb, but the point is that when you adopt the existentialist perspective there is no criteria for judging "better" whatsoever.



You're right, it is...



Which is why the Astros better play today...
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S.P. Rodriguez

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #32 on: April 13, 2006, 02:45:39 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

So living longer is better? Why?

This whole conversation is probably dumb, but the point is that when you adopt the existentialist perspective there is no criteria for judging "better" whatsoever.



You're right, it is...



Which is why the Astros better play today...



Amen to that...  If I don't watch it, I'm going to post something that's going to get Jim to tell me to go visit an ACLU fan site.
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JimR

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #33 on: April 13, 2006, 02:51:31 pm »
might as well go now and save me the trouble. this thread has gone to hell. it has become a Psuedo-Intellectual postoff.
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davek

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #34 on: April 13, 2006, 02:55:45 pm »
Quote:

might as well go now and save me the trouble. this thread has gone to hell. it has become a Psuedo-Intellectual postoff.



Heavy on the psuedo...
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Jacksonian

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #35 on: April 13, 2006, 03:00:08 pm »
Quote:

might as well go now and save me the trouble. this thread has gone to hell. it has become a Psuedo-Intellectual postoff.



Are you feeling alright?
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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #36 on: April 13, 2006, 03:18:54 pm »
yep--and you? how's your Mom 'n them?
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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #37 on: April 13, 2006, 03:23:16 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Baseball opinions are very important?



To some people, very much so.



You'd think the topic would be of some importance to anyone who spends any time in a forum especially designated for baseball opinions. It'd be pretty stupid to do so otherwise.  This renders even more pathetic the misguided trolls who are advising us to "get a life".



I think I'm being shushed by a librarian.  Not "us", you.
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Jacksonian

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #38 on: April 13, 2006, 03:28:07 pm »
Quote:

yep--and you? how's your Mom 'n them?



Well, good.  I was a bit concerned because you wrote "pseudo-intellectual" rather than the more accurate "bullshit."
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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #39 on: April 13, 2006, 03:36:25 pm »
just trying to show off a bit.
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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #40 on: April 13, 2006, 03:41:04 pm »
librarians are supposed to shush those who are making noise and bothering the serious students.
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Zan

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #41 on: April 13, 2006, 03:49:12 pm »
Quote:



Here are some names to think about as you ponder these questions yourself:

Dwight Gooden
Daryl Strawberry
Dale Murphy
Don Mattingly



Let me ask a different question then:
Of all the players Oswalt and Berkman have been comparable to at this age who are HoF elibible, do you think more have made or missed the HoF?
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NeilT

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #42 on: April 13, 2006, 03:52:53 pm »
What's wrong Jim, did I kick your dog?
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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #43 on: April 13, 2006, 03:57:45 pm »
Besides being psuedo-intellectual, this thread is also prima facie evidence that promotion from "clark" status doesn't necessarily correlate to quality output...
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Arky Vaughan

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #44 on: April 13, 2006, 04:06:18 pm »
Quote:

Quote:



Here are some names to think about as you ponder these questions yourself:

Dwight Gooden
Daryl Strawberry
Dale Murphy
Don Mattingly



Let me ask a different question then:
Of all the players Oswalt and Berkman have been comparable to at this age who are HoF elibible, do you think more have made or missed the HoF?



Take a look at the similar players lists at baseball-reference.com.

For Oswalt, through age 27, the list is:

Tim Hudson (960)
Mike Mussina (946)
John Candelaria (939)
Jack McDowell (937)
Kevin Appier (935)
Doug Drabek (934)
Lefty Williams (933)
Matt Morris (930)
Kevin Millwood (928)
Bob Welch (926)

For Berkman, through age 29, the list is:

Tim Salmon (946)
Magglio Ordonez (931)
Wally Berger (929)
Danny Tartabull (926)
Charlie Keller (917)
Mo Vaughn (916)
Albert Belle (914)
Fred Lynn (912)
Jeff Bagwell (907)
David Ortiz (901)

I'd read that to say that (1) similarity scores are a useful tool, but not definitive, and (2) it's very, very difficult to make the Hall of Fame, and it's even harder to tell who's going to make it only halfway through a career.

Try this approach by way of comparison. Which of Berkman's most-similar players looked like they might make the Hall of Fame at age 29?  At least half those guys looked on track, but at this point, only Bagwell seems like a sure thing. In other words, it's much more common to look like a future Hall of Famer at a certain age than to be a future Hall of Famer at a certain age.

When Dale Murphy was Berkman's age, it was inconceivable to most people that not only would he not make the Hall of Fame, but that he wouldn't even be a borderline candidate.

As an aside, I think this helps put into perspective how phenomenally great a baseball player Jeff Bagwell was.
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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #45 on: April 13, 2006, 04:07:04 pm »
Quote:

Let me ask a different question then:
Of all the players Oswalt and Berkman have been comparable to at this age who are HoF elibible, do you think more have made or missed the HoF?



I just called the future, and they said that Roy made it in on the 2nd ballot, but Maybelline suffered through a series of off-season recreational injuries and excessive fried chicken intake in his early 30's that kept him from really putting the whole resume together. That's pretty definitive, so place your bets accordingly.
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Arky Vaughan

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #46 on: April 13, 2006, 04:10:41 pm »
Quote:

Let me state upfront that these questions (however stupid) are genuinely put:

1. Is there a source for betting on a player making the HOF?
2. If so, what are the odds for Berkman and Oswalt?
3. Do you think Berkman and/or Oswalt will make the Hall?



Let me put it this way: while you might put some money on who's going to win certain games in the NCAA tournament, would you put very much money at the beginning on who's going to win the whole thing?
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jasonact

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #47 on: April 13, 2006, 06:28:55 pm »
Quote:

So living longer is better? Why?

This whole conversation is probably dumb, but the point is that when you adopt the existentialist perspective there is no criteria for judging "better" whatsoever.



I didn't say living longer was better. I said that the betterment of the self is often instinctively assumed to lead to longer life (and in many instances it does). Living longer is an instinct. It's neither good nor bad. It simply is.

Actually, there is a criteria for judging better, but it is different from person to person, which is why I described it as subjective. I have my idea of betterment, and you have yours. We may have similarities, but they are not the same. The commonality is the instinct to survive.
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JimR

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #48 on: April 13, 2006, 07:06:20 pm »
anyone have a spare sock?
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NeilT

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #49 on: April 13, 2006, 07:12:30 pm »
Wrong target?
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Arky Vaughan

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Re: HOF odds?
« Reply #50 on: April 13, 2006, 08:12:28 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

So living longer is better? Why?

This whole conversation is probably dumb, but the point is that when you adopt the existentialist perspective there is no criteria for judging "better" whatsoever.



I didn't say living longer was better. I said that the betterment of the self is often instinctively assumed to lead to longer life (and in many instances it does). Living longer is an instinct. It's neither good nor bad. It simply is.

Actually, there is a criteria for judging better, but it is different from person to person, which is why I described it as subjective. I have my idea of betterment, and you have yours. We may have similarities, but they are not the same. The commonality is the instinct to survive.



The Void is over. Please cut it out.
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