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Author Topic: Roy, 25-30?  (Read 2263 times)

CrawfordBoxes

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Roy, 25-30?
« on: April 08, 2006, 07:59:10 pm »
I remember John Kruk going out on a limb Randy's first season in NY saying that he would win 30 games. Not exactly haha. I think Roy Oswalt, as long as he stays healthy, has a realistic chance to win 25-30 games this year. I know we'll have to score more then 1 run a game for him to do it but what would you say his chances are? I say he wins 25 this year!
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Bench

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Re: Roy, 25-30?
« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2006, 09:06:48 pm »
Quote:

I remember John Kruk going out on a limb Randy's first season in NY saying that he would win 30 games. Not exactly haha. I think Roy Oswalt, as long as he stays healthy, has a realistic chance to win 25-30 games this year. I know we'll have to score more then 1 run a game for him to do it but what would you say his chances are? I say he wins 25 this year!



If he makes 30 starts, then he'll certainly have a chance at 30 wins.
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Savage

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Re: Roy, 25-30?
« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2006, 10:11:26 pm »
Have to keep Qualls from coming in afterwards for him as well.
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CrawfordBoxes

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Re: Roy, 25-30?
« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2006, 11:24:45 pm »
yeah no shit...qualls looks pathetic so far this season.
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David in Jackson

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Re: Roy, 25-30?
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2006, 11:55:14 am »
Quote:

I remember John Kruk going out on a limb Randy's first season in NY saying that he would win 30 games. Not exactly haha. I think Roy Oswalt, as long as he stays healthy, has a realistic chance to win 25-30 games this year. I know we'll have to score more then 1 run a game for him to do it but what would you say his chances are? I say he wins 25 this year!



John Kruk is an idiot.
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mihoba

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Re: Roy, 25-30?
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2006, 11:57:32 am »
Quote:

I think Roy Oswalt, as long as he stays healthy, has a realistic chance to win 25-30 games this year. I know we'll have to score more then 1 run a game for him to do it but what would you say his chances are? I say he wins 25 this year!



Please keep your "thoughts" to yourself. The BBG's do not take kindly to blatent homerism and downright unrealistic expectations.

At the game last night, after he reached 0-2 on Soriano in the second, some kind of strange wind propelled a high fly ball to right just over Lane's glove into the stands. Now I know why.

Oh, and by the way, since the advent of 5-man rotations, no one has 'a realistic chance' to win 30 games. A pitcher will only get 35-36 starts max a year. The last player to do it (Denny McLain in the 'last year of the pitcher', 1968) was in a four man rotation.
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No? in Austin

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Re: Roy, 25-30?
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2006, 03:41:37 pm »
When I read the first three words, I thought to myself "Oh boy... here come the BBGs...".  No wonder the wheels fell off for Oswalt.  He looked very uncomfortable on the mound last night for sure.
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jasonact

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Re: Roy, 25-30?
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2006, 03:54:14 pm »
Of course he has a chance to win 25-30, but SO much can happen over the course of a season, even for a healthy pitcher. It is highly unlikely that anyone will win 25-30 this year. Here is the win total for the MLB leader in wins over the last 10 years (notice that NO ONE has gotten to 25 wins in that time):

2005 - 22 (Willis, Florida)
2004 - 21 (Schilling, Boston)
2003 - 22 (Halladay, Toronto)
2002 - 24 (Johnson, Arizona)
2001 - 22 (Morris, Co-ards)
2000 - 22 (Glavine, Atlanta)
1999 - 23 (Martinez, Boston)
1998 - 20 (by 4 different pitchers)
1997 - 21 (Clemens, Toronto)
1996 - 24 (Smoltz, Atlanta)

The last time any pitcher won as many as 25 games in a season was in 1990, when the A's Bob Welch won 27. The last time before that was Steve Stone for Baltimore in 1980. That's only 2 25-game winners in the last 26 years. The last NL pitcher to win that many was Steve Carlton with 27 in 1972, and that was before relief pitching became as big a part of the game as it is now. That should tell you how difficult it is to win that many games in a season, even with good health and good offense and defense behind you.

So, yes, Roy has a chance to win 25-30, but not a realistic chance. 20-22 is probably the most realistic best-case scenario, but that's only if everything goes right, meaning no more games like last night.
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No? in Austin

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Re: Roy, 25-30?
« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2006, 04:44:38 pm »
Quote:

Of course he has a chance to win 25-30, but SO much can happen over the course of a season, even for a healthy pitcher.



Ahum, no he doesn't.  Not unless Garner turns into Dusty Baker or Lou Pinella and decides to meat grind Roy.  That would be a travestry and reason enough to get rid of Scraps if he were to do so, especially for a meaningless 25-30 win season in return.
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jasonact

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Re: Roy, 25-30?
« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2006, 04:50:26 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Of course he has a chance to win 25-30, but SO much can happen over the course of a season, even for a healthy pitcher.



Ahum, no he doesn't.  Not unless Garner turns into Dusty Baker or Lou Pinella and decides to meat grind Roy.  That would be a travestry and reason enough to get rid of Scraps if he were to do so, especially for a meaningless 25-30 win season in return.



The word "chance" used in the loosest sense possible. If he gets 25-30 starts, he theoretically has a chance for 25-30 wins, since you technically need only 5 IP/game to get a win, but it ain't gonna happen.
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Arky Vaughan

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Re: Roy, 25-30?
« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2006, 06:00:05 pm »
Quote:

I remember John Kruk going out on a limb Randy's first season in NY saying that he would win 30 games. Not exactly haha. I think Roy Oswalt, as long as he stays healthy, has a realistic chance to win 25-30 games this year. I know we'll have to score more then 1 run a game for him to do it but what would you say his chances are? I say he wins 25 this year!



I would put the probability of any pitcher winning 25 games this season at less than 1%.

The BBGs don't even need to get involved with odds that low.

If John Kruk really meant that, then a large portion of the fat around his waist has somehow migrated to his head.
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CrawfordBoxes

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Re: Roy, 25-30?
« Reply #11 on: April 09, 2006, 10:12:20 pm »
I don't know, we'll see what happens.
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David in Jackson

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Re: Roy, 25-30?
« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2006, 10:46:45 am »
Quote:

Of course he has a chance to win 25-30, but SO much can happen over the course of a season, even for a healthy pitcher. It is highly unlikely that anyone will win 25-30 this year. Here is the win total for the MLB leader in wins over the last 10 years (notice that NO ONE has gotten to 25 wins in that time):

2005 - 22 (Willis, Florida)
2004 - 21 (Schilling, Boston)
2003 - 22 (Halladay, Toronto)
2002 - 24 (Johnson, Arizona)
2001 - 22 (Morris, Co-ards)
2000 - 22 (Glavine, Atlanta)
1999 - 23 (Martinez, Boston)
1998 - 20 (by 4 different pitchers)
1997 - 21 (Clemens, Toronto)
1996 - 24 (Smoltz, Atlanta)

The last time any pitcher won as many as 25 games in a season was in 1990, when the A's Bob Welch won 27. The last time before that was Steve Stone for Baltimore in 1980. That's only 2 25-game winners in the last 26 years. The last NL pitcher to win that many was Steve Carlton with 27 in 1972, and that was before relief pitching became as big a part of the game as it is now. That should tell you how difficult it is to win that many games in a season, even with good health and good offense and defense behind you.

So, yes, Roy has a chance to win 25-30, but not a realistic chance. 20-22 is probably the most realistic best-case scenario, but that's only if everything goes right, meaning no more games like last night.



Wow - that's more research (or "readin'") than professional baseball commentator John Kruk has probably ever done.
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BUWebguy

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Re: Roy, 25-30?
« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2006, 11:32:25 am »
Quote:

Quote:

I remember John Kruk going out on a limb Randy's first season in NY saying that he would win 30 games. Not exactly haha. I think Roy Oswalt, as long as he stays healthy, has a realistic chance to win 25-30 games this year. I know we'll have to score more then 1 run a game for him to do it but what would you say his chances are? I say he wins 25 this year!



I would put the probability of any pitcher winning 25 games this season at less than 1%.



So you're telling me there's a chance...
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