Author Topic: Rosenthal predicts NL Central (Read 4696 times)

jwhudson · « **on:** January 22, 2006, 09:34:23 am »

It's starting already - Cardinals pick to win NL Central again. The Link

DVauthrin · « **Reply #1 on:** January 22, 2006, 11:58:28 am »

I can't wait until the season starts and the Astros offense/team starts performing really well and the people writing articles like this are left sucking their thumbs.

It would be nice to see any decent reporter use RESEARCH for once. See this guy named Lance Berkman, he missed all of April and spent May getting his swing back. He isn't important though? Nor is the fact that the Astros didn't have a good Bagwell replacement last season, but this year they have Preston Wilson. Then last but not least, guys like Lane and Ensberg don't have get adjusted to new roles unlike the early part of last season.

Yes, I realize guys like Willy/Jason could be privy to the "sophomore" slump this year but you have a deep bench with Lamb and Burke among others(Bruntlett, OP, Bagwell or Scott) who could help contribute if they struggle.

shortstop · « **Reply #2 on:** January 22, 2006, 12:44:11 pm »

Quote:

I can't wait until the season starts and the Astros offense/team starts performing really well and the people writing articles like this are left sucking their thumbs.

It would be nice to see any decent reporter use RESEARCH for once. See this guy named Lance Berkman, he missed all of April and spent May getting his swing back. He isn't important though? Nor is the fact that the Astros didn't have a good Bagwell replacement last season, but this year they have Preston Wilson. Then last but not least, guys like Lane and Ensberg don't have get adjusted to new roles unlike the early part of last season.

Yes, I realize guys like Willy/Jason could be privy to the "sophomore" slump this year but you have a deep bench with Lamb and Burke among others(Bruntlett, OP, Bagwell or Scott) who could help contribute if they struggle.

He says the Cards are the expected to be frontrunners again with the Astros on their heels and the Cubs a maybe depending on the health of their starting pitching. Everyone else is getting better but not yet in a position to contend. He says the Cards made a bunch of changes and will have a spark from their new stadium but nothing is certain ? who knows what they?ll get from Rolen, Edmonds and Carpenter in 2006. As for the Astros, Wilson is the only addition to a weak hitting lineup, but he still expects them to be the main chalengers.

What's wrong with that? Granted, there's not much substance in there, but it's about as good a preview of the NL Central as anyone can give in January. Just because he's not giving us the title and praisng our off season "transactions" doesn't mean he's not a decent reporter or failed to do his homework.

Fredia · « **Reply #4 on:** January 22, 2006, 03:20:09 pm »

good let the press predict whatever they want. does not matter. who wil be haning the nlc pennant at their park this year. sometimes almost seems like the more down and out the good guys are they more they suck it up and move on and as in the case of last year do well
if you beleive in all the preditions out there someone predict that harrison ford or sean connery will meet fall madly in love with me.. thanks in advance

JimR · « **Reply #5 on:** January 22, 2006, 03:34:18 pm »

Rosenthal is very plugged in to scouts and other baseball people. much (most?) of what he writes is what people inside baseball think.

jasonact · « **Reply #6 on:** January 22, 2006, 09:36:09 pm »

Isn't this par for the course? When was the last time the Astros were picked by the majority to win their division? The Astros don't have a lot of "self-promoting" players and players that get a lot of play on ESPN (Roger being one glaring exception). We should not underestimate the effect that the media has on sportswriters and even baseball insiders. They haven't heard much from the Astros this offseason, outside of the Clemens saga, so they assume that they haven't done much this off-season to improve. The Cardinals and Cubs have each brought in some players, albeit relatively low-impact players, and made a little noise, so they might get a bit more attention than they should at this point. Improving health and continuous development of young players get little air time and, therefore, get little weight with predictors. For me, that's what makes pre-season predictions so much fun: You can read them, smile, and say, "We'll see."

Frankly, though, I didn't read anything in that article that I unequivicolly disagreed with. No, he didn't mention the health of Berkman or the potential improvement of the younger players, but he didn't mention a lot of different aspects of the other teams in the division either. (It's only one column, after all.) He called the Cardinals the favorite. At this point, I have to agree, although I know the Astros won't be far behind. Remember that in 2005, most picked the Astros to finish 3rd and some picked them 4th in the Central in 2005 (behind the Cardinals, Cubs, and Reds). We all saw how that turned out.

DVauthrin · « **Reply #9 on:** January 23, 2006, 02:02:41 am »

Honestly:

Catcher: I doubt Brad hits as well as he did in the second half for a full year, so probably below average offensively in this spot.

First: Lance for a full year really helps. The team averaged 3.5 runs per game without him healthy and 4.5 or so in the 4 months he was healthy.

2nd: Biggio. I could easily see a dropoff in Bidge, but I think he can still be an average hitting NL 2B minimum(and Burke/Bruntlett can help spell him in slumps)

SS: Everett: He can do better than he did last year, though that's not saying much.

3B: Ensberg: I could see a dropoff from him(.800-.850 OPS range), but he should still be an above average NL 3B offensively.

LF: Wilson: This is trading in Burke's six something OPS for an .800 OPS give or take a few points. Major upgrade if he stays healthy(knock on wood)

CF: Willy: I could see a rough early of the year for Willy, but again, you have guys like OP, Burke, Bruntlett, Wilson who can play CF in a pinch. I think his speed will keep his average high though.

RF: Lane: Jason settled in big time last year from June on, posting an .800 plus OPS each of the four months. I'd expect around the same this year.

Point is I could see Everett improving enough to offset Brad's decline(it wouldn't take much). Then you have the upgrade over Burke in LF which at worst offsets declines I might forsee in Bidge, Willy, Morgan, if they even occur. Lastly, you have Lance for a full year instead of 4 months. And a lineup of Willy-Bidge-Lance-Morgan-Lane-Burke-Ausmus-Everett averaged 4.5 runs per game or so from june on. Now add Wilson in place of Burke. Even with certain downticks in production, the addition of Wilson should make up for them.

And the reason they ranked 11th last year in runs is they averaged a pathetic 3.5 runs per game through April/May. And in April they missed Lance. In May, Lance was honing his swing after a long layoff and Bags had his surgery and the team had no good replacement. Those things are addressed this year.

Froback · « **Reply #11 on:** January 23, 2006, 11:27:01 am »

While I am not conceding the season to anyone at this point, his predictions make alot of sense.

IF Rolen is healthy, I think you have a hard time arguing that the Astros are stronger than the 3rdnals in line-up. Also the 3rdnals have the Cy Young winner from last year. Last year they were the #2 Starting pitching staff to us, and they lost Morris and we lost Clemens, who lost more? They did lose from their bullpen, so the Astros are still better there. So it boils down to is our better bullpen a bigger of-set than their better line-up?

IF Rolen is healthy and IF Clemens comes back in mid-late May, then I think these teams are going to battle down the stretch, but I still think the 3rdnals are built to win in the regular season more than the Astros are (but Houston is built to win better in the post-season).

So I don't think he is that far off. But don't forget...

The ASTROS are the DEFENDING NL CHAMPS, and the 3rdnals are not!

JimR · « **Reply #12 on:** January 23, 2006, 11:34:25 am »

why on earth do you care?

otterj · « **Reply #16 on:** January 24, 2006, 02:19:52 am »

Vegas agrees with Ken.

Odds to win the National League Central:

St.Louis -200 ($10 wins $5)
Chicago +275
Houston +600 ($10 wins $60)
Milwaukee +2000
Pittsburgh +4000
Cincinnati +4000

These odds surprised me.

Kit · « **Reply #17 on:** January 24, 2006, 02:17:16 pm »

Those odds seem so off to me....is this on line somewhere?

6-1 is a very good bet....Astros (I can see 6-1 on a NL Pennant but not divison.)

1-2 is a very poor bet....on Cards I think...

Vegas here I come...

Ty in Tampa · « **Reply #20 on:** January 24, 2006, 03:39:34 pm »

Cubfan is optimistic.

Pope is catholic.
Everybody dies.
Water is wet.
Etc.

TenThirty · « **Reply #24 on:** January 24, 2006, 08:40:55 pm »

i Dunno. I'm kinda liking that Brew Crew at 20 for 1. They remind me a little of the Indians this time last year. A few guys seemed primed for a breakout.

Author Topic: Rosenthal predicts NL Central (Read 4696 times)

strosrays

No? in Austin