Real reason Astros offense wasn't hot in 05

[Froback]

Alot of people have be-moaned that the Astros offense stunk last year because they had 3 automatic outs in the 7-9 places in the line-up.

While I agree, Everett and Ausmus are not stellar hitters, I began to question if they really deserve the blame so many people lay at their feet.

Forgive me for using some statistics here, but I think they merit a look.

Obviously our biggest run producers are going to be our #3 and #4 hitters.  In every line-up that is ussually the case.  But there is a catch, they need people to drive in to be run-producers.  So looking at the Astros 1 and 2 slots is important, I think to their overall offensive production.

Of all ML clubs, the Astros were 27th out of 30 teams in OBP from the lead-off spot.  Now I am not going to say Willy must go, I think he will improve alot, and gives us a weapon at the top with his speed (that I think we will see him use more as he gets comfortable).  Now the difference in the Astros lead-off batter and the ML average is about 30 more times of getting on, whether by hit, walk or HBP.  Given that the Astros Leadoff man scored roughtly 38% of the time they got on (90/236), that would translate into 11 more runs.  BTW, Willy wasn't the only lead-off hitter and his OBP is closer to ML average then the team was, so Willy won't have to improve THAT much to yield the ML average.
The Astros #2 hitter's OBP was roughly average compared to the rest of the league.
The Astros #3 hitter was just outside the top 10 in both OBP and OPS (mostly I think because Lance missed the first month, otherwise they probably would have been top 10).
The Astros #4 hitter was actuall #2 overall in OBP and #3 in OPS, so Ensberg really did all we could ask for and more.
The Astros #5 hitter is where we really hit the skids.  Dead last in OBP, a full 100 points behind the #1 team. And in OPS 26th out of 30 teams.  Now if we have Jason Lane there full time or even Bagwell this will improve itself.  Heck if you plug in Jason's number for the season instead, you get top 10 in OPS, but still bottom 10 in OBP, so obviously Jason is a slugger, not a table setter, which is ok.
The Astros #6 hitter last year was just slightly (ever so slightly) better than league average last year.  Most of this was probably due to Jason Lane's production, since Lane was often bumped here to give the lefty/right switch when Lamb or OP played.  But Burke factored into this slot too.
The Astros #7 hitter (mostly Everett) was 26 and 29 in OBP and OPS, but the White Sox were dead last in both areas.  So obviously the Astros chose defense over hitting here.  The #7 hitter was about as far from average as the #1 hitter.
The Astros #8 hitter (mostly Ausmus) was 7th in the Majors in OBP but 21st in OPS.  Well we all know Ausmus is not a power hitter, and never has been, but in the NL, ahead of your pitcher you need to be able to get on, to allow him to bunt you over.

So what we can see from this breakdown is the Astros had 2 holes, and Ausmus wasn't really one of them.  The two holes were the "other guy" (LF/1B) and Everett.  And honestly, Everett can be explained as defense over offense... and "other guy" we can take comfort in the fact that Bagwell might be back, or maybe the mysterious FA we "supposedly" are talking to.

So if you add in those extra 11 runs I talked about in the lead-off spot, the Astros were only 20 runs away from ML average.  And then when you consider Berkman missed a month and Ensberg missed 2 weeks (not to mention being injured when he did come back)... AND Bagwell might return to the line-up, I think people are WAY overblowing the Astros offensive woes!

That doesn't mean they shouldn't try to improve, but I am SO tired of hearing about how bad they were offensively that I felt the need to express that here.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

nice points.  The only one I disagree with was an implied assumption, possibly on my part, that Ensberg will duplicate last season.  I'm not saying he won't, only it's the first time he's put a season like that.  The only concern is if there is a dramatic drop off.  I don't think there will be but it's still a risk.  

Your statement about the astros #1 and #2 hitters scoring 38% of the time they reached base, how does that compare to league average?  I'm curious because the big knock on Willy, as you stated, is his OBP isn't as high as one would hope from a leadoff.  However, if he's able to be more efficient with the opportunities he has, then he obvious has offset the impact of his below avg OBP.  I've looked for this type of break out before but can't find it.  Mind sharing your source or was this something you put together?

[jasonact]

Good assessment. Good luck trying to get people to buy it, though. Some Astros fans out there considered the re-signing of Ausmus as an offensive death sentence for 2006 and especially 2007, and nothing you or I can say will change their minds.

In addition to Ensberg and Bagwell hopefully overcoming their 2005 injuries, I'm hoping we begin to some improvement from Taveras, specifically in his discipline at the plate. His BB/K ratio was atrocious last year (1:4). Imagine the threat he would be if he turned that ratio around or just evened it out a little. (A few more doubles would be nice too, but I won't get greedy.)

[Froback]

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nice points.  The only one I disagree with was an implied assumption, possibly on my part, that Ensberg will duplicate last season.  I'm not saying he won't, only it's the first time he's put a season like that.  The only concern is if there is a dramatic drop off.  I don't think there will be but it's still a risk.  

Your statement about the astros #1 and #2 hitters scoring 38% of the time they reached base, how does that compare to league average?  I'm curious because the big knock on Willy, as you stated, is his OBP isn't as high as one would hope from a leadoff.  However, if he's able to be more efficient with the opportunities he has, then he obvious has offset the impact of his below avg OBP.  I've looked for this type of break out before but can't find it.  Mind sharing your source or was this something you put together?

The 38% was just for the leadoff hitter (the #2 hitter scored 41%).  Keep in mind my breakdown was by batting order slot, not individual.  And I got my stuff from ESPN's stats and put the stuff to use.  So it was just an observation thing by me.

 Added in the Edit: This was why I was so excited when I was hearing about Abreu being available.  If we could put a .400 OBP guy in the #2 hole, he would score approximately 115 runs for us or 20 more than we got last year.

[BUWebguy]

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The 38% was just for the leadoff hitter (the #2 hitter scored 41%).  Keep in mind my breakdown was by batting order slot, not individual.

Right; I think the question is, what was the MLB avg for the leadoff slot (and #2)? Were the Astros avg, above avg or below avg in those percentages?

[Arky Vaughan]

Ahem:

The Link

[Arky Vaughan]

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I'm hoping we begin to some improvement from Taveras, specifically in his discipline at the plate. His BB/K ratio was atrocious last year (1:4). Imagine the threat he would be if he turned that ratio around or just evened it out a little. (A few more doubles would be nice too, but I won't get greedy.)

There has been a lot of discussion about Willy T, with respect to the Rookie of the Year voting, trades and his potential for improvement. Willy is one of the most exciting Astros players to watch in several years. He also did a tremendous job given that he was just 23 and made the jump to playing full-time in the majors.

That said, Taveras is going to need improvements in his defense, offense and baserunning to take a step forward.  He must learn to read the ball off the bat better and run better patterns to the ball; his plate discipline requires serious improvement; he must learn how to contribute at the plate with runners on base; his reading of pitchers needs to get better (nobody with his speed should be getting thrown out 25 percent of the time).

The Astros realize this, as they have repeatedly noted that Taveras is a work in progress.  He turns 24 on Christmas day, so he's still very young.  If he can learn these things, he'll be a valuable asset for years to come. But right now, if the Astros got the right trade offer, could get something valuable for him, and could acquire someone else to play center field, that might not be such a bad thing, given how much Taveras needs to learn.

[Arky Vaughan]

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I think the question is, what was the MLB avg for the leadoff slot (and #2)? Were the Astros avg, above avg or below avg in those percentages?

Here is a comparison of the National League team-average to the Astros:

     ------NL------  ----Astros-----   ---Dif----
Pos   OB   R    Pct    OB   R    Pct     Pct    R
-------------------------------------------------
#1   253  99  39.2%   234  90  38.5%   -0.7%   -2
#2   238  95  39.9%   231  95  41.1%   +1.3%   +3
#3   264  99  37.5%   260  96  37.0%   -0.6%   -1
#4   252  94  37.3%   271  98  36.2%   -1.1%   -3
#5   232  86  37.1%   196  84  42.8%   +5.7%  +11
#6   222  75  33.8%   220  75  34.1%   +0.2%   +1
#7   206  65  31.6%   181  56  30.9%   -0.7%   -1
#8   198  61  30.9%   202  57  28.2%   -2.7%   -5
#9   134  42  31.3%   139  42  30.3%   -1.0%   -1

The "Dif" columns figure the difference in the percentage of runners on base scored as well as the difference in runs that this percentage represents (i.e., had the Astros scored at the league rate, how many greater or fewer runs would have scored?).  As a team, the Astros matched the league average of 35.5 percent.  Another way to put this: the Astros did not finish below the league average in runs scored due to the fact that they failed to drive in runs as efficiently as the league average.

Where the Astros lagged badly was in getting on base. Here is a comparison to the National League:

      NL   Hou   -----Dif-----
Pos  OBP   OBP   Pts   OB    R
------------------------------
#1  .338  .317   -21  -15   -6
#2  .330  .324    -6   -4   -2
#3  .370  .369    -1   -1    0
#4  .361  .391   +30  +21   +8
#5  .340  .291   -49  -33  -14
#6  .335  .333    -2   -1    0
#7  .320  .285   -35  -22   -7
#8  .317  .330   +13   +8   +2
#9  .234  .246   +12   +7   +2

In the "Dif" columns, "Pts" is the difference in points of OBP, "OB" is the difference in runners on base (given the same number of plate appearances), and "R" is the difference in runs, based on the percentages of runners scored above.  The Astros were a cumulative 42 runners and 18 runs behind the league average by this measure.  The "damage" caused at Nos. 1 and 2 are not nearly as great, combined, as at No. 5, and only barely exceed that at No. 7.

So, yes, maybe there is something to complaining about the holes in the middle and toward the bottom of the line-up.

Just for the record: No. 8, aka Brad Ausmus, was just fine at that slot in the batting order.

[jasonact]

Absolutely. I really like the potential that this guy has, but he certainly has work to do on every aspect of his game. We have to remember that he made the jump from AA to the majors and was STILL a major ROY candidate. That's saying something. The reports I read talk about how "teachable" he is. With his talent, teachable is perhaps the best thing that can be said about him.

I was very surprised, however, to see him essentially stop using his speed at the end of the season and in the playoffs. His SB attempts drastically dropped off (4 SB in 5 attempts in Sept and Oct including playoffs), and he almost never attempted to bunt for hits late in the year. Is there a reasonable theory out there as to why this aspect of the offense disappeared?

[Ty in Tampa]

My head hurts.

[pravata]

Quote:
Absolutely. I really like the potential that this guy has, but he certainly has work to do on every aspect of his game. We have to remember that he made the jump from AA to the majors and was STILL a major ROY candidate. That's saying something. The reports I read talk about how "teachable" he is. With his talent, teachable is perhaps the best thing that can be said about him.

I was very surprised, however, to see him essentially stop using his speed at the end of the season and in the playoffs. His SB attempts drastically dropped off (4 SB in 5 attempts in Sept and Oct including playoffs), and he almost never attempted to bunt for hits late in the year. Is there a reasonable theory out there as to why this aspect of the offense disappeared?

Taveras, a notoriously slow healer, strained left hamstring in late May.  From June to the end of the season he hit over .300 in every month except Sept.  3bs began to play on top of him, yet he still beat out many infield hits.

[Arky Vaughan]

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Taveras, a notoriously slow healer, strained left hamstring in late May.  From June to the end of the season he hit over .300 in every month except Sept.  3bs began to play on top of him, yet he still beat out many infield hits.

Which is really the beauty of him.  You can't coach speed, but if you can coach all that other stuff, you've got a nice young player on your hands.

[jasonact]

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Taveras, a notoriously slow healer, strained left hamstring in late May.  From June to the end of the season he hit over .300 in every month except Sept.  3bs began to play on top of him, yet he still beat out many infield hits.

Yeah, but the drop-off in SB attempts and bunt hit attempts seemed to happen in August or September, not May or June. Is there any evidence that the strained hamstring had a significant flare-up late in the season? Maybe it was a strategic reason? Maybe he lost some confidence?

[Andyzipp]

Reoccurance of the Hip flexor he suffered from in 2004.

[jasonact]

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Reoccurance of the Hip flexor he suffered from in 2004.

That makes sense. Was that stated somewhere as the reason, or are you speculating?

[pravata]

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Taveras, a notoriously slow healer, strained left hamstring in late May.  From June to the end of the season he hit over .300 in every month except Sept.  3bs began to play on top of him, yet he still beat out many infield hits.

Yeah, but the drop-off in SB attempts and bunt hit attempts seemed to happen in August or September, not May or June. Is there any evidence that the strained hamstring had a significant flare-up late in the season? Maybe it was a strategic reason? Maybe he lost some confidence?

Maybe he was hitting over .350 for the month.

[jasonact]

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Maybe he was hitting over .350 for the month.

Meaning what?

[pravata]

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Maybe he was hitting over .350 for the month.

Meaning what?

Nevermind.