Author Topic: 2019 Rule 5 Draft  (Read 2930 times)

Nate Colbert

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2019 Rule 5 Draft
« on: March 06, 2019, 02:54:11 pm »
Stop laughing.

It's never too early to know who's at risk for being lost (and relatedly who might be more likely to be included in deals at the trade deadline). I haven't done any independent research and am assuming (for now) Roster Resources is accurate in identifying player who'll be Rule 5 eligible for the first time*. Herewith the 50 players with an R5 bullseye on them...

RHP Brandon Bailey
RHP Ronel Blanco
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Chad Donato
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Cristian Javier
RHP Carson LaRue
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Enoli Paredes
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez
RHP Cesar Rosado
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Carlos Sanabria
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Gabriel Valdez

LHP Brett Adcock
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Ryan Hartman
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman

C Oscar Campos
C Ruben Castro
C Scott Manea
C Jamie Ritchie
C Chuckie Robinson

1B Taylor Jones

3B Abraham Toro

SS Jonathan Arauz
SS Miguelangel Sierra

INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
INF Ronaldo Urdaneta
INF Enmanuel Valdez

UTIL Alex De Goti
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez

OF Yordan Alvarez
OF Carmen Benedetti
OF Ronnie Dawson
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda
OF Stephen Wrenn

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


*As I go thru their list I immediately see one error with Arauz being identified as Rule 5 eligible for the first time in 2019 when in fact it was 2018.

juliogotay

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Re: 2019 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2019, 03:50:46 pm »
I would expect someone to take a chance on Alvarez.

jbm

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Re: 2019 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2019, 03:55:14 pm »
He'll be protected

Jacksonian

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Re: 2019 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2019, 03:55:37 pm »
I would expect someone to take a chance on Alvarez.

Barring a disasterous season no one will have the chance.
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MusicMan

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Re: 2019 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2019, 05:43:36 pm »
He'll be protected

He’ll get MLB at bats this year.


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austro

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Re: 2019 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2019, 06:47:15 pm »
Seems like Bostick and Toro might need decisions, too.
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Jacksonian

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Re: 2019 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2019, 08:50:07 am »
Seems like Bostick and Toro might need decisions, too.

Bostick has been through the draft already and was not taken.  He'll have to make strides this year to be considered.
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JimR

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Re: 2019 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2019, 09:02:39 am »
Echoing others, no way Alvarez is left unprotected.
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juliogotay

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Re: 2019 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2019, 09:20:56 am »
Echoing others, no way Alvarez is left unprotected.

Toro looks like a pretty promising hitting prospect, too.

moriartp

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Re: 2019 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2019, 01:33:31 pm »
Bailey could definitely get popped.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2019 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2019, 03:47:49 pm »
Guys who'll either be traded or on the 40-man roster come draft day in December: Yordan Alvarez, Abraham Toro, Ronnie Dawson, Brandon Bailey.

I could also make the case for some additional pitchers beyond Bailey to force their way into serious consideration depending on how they progress in 2019.

Jacksonian

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Re: 2019 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2019, 03:51:04 pm »
Guys who'll either be traded or on the 40-man roster come draft day in December: Yordan Alvarez, Abraham Toro, Ronnie Dawson, Brandon Bailey.

I could also make the case for some additional pitchers beyond Bailey to force their way into serious consideration depending on how they progress in 2019.

Given a good year I'd bet one or both of Adcock and Hartman would be put on the 40-man.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2019 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2019, 03:51:49 pm »
Given a good year I'd bet one or both of Adcock and Hartman would be put on the 40-man.

Agree on Adcock, disagree on Hartman.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2019 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2019, 08:23:24 am »
"...am assuming (for now) Roster Resources is accurate in identifying player who'll be Rule 5 eligible for the first time."

No more assumptions with regards to RR. The error on Arauz I noted previously should have been an immediate red flag to check their work on other players and particularly the international signees. Updating from the work I did for the 2018 Rule 5 draft thread, the following 4 categories have to be considered when evaluating potential 2019 protectees:

Category
1. A HS draftee taken in 2015 or earlier: none
2. A college draftee taken in 2016 or earlier: Bailey, Dawson, Adcock, Toro, Wrenn, Nick Hernandez, Hartman, Donato, Benedetti, Ryne Birk, LaRue, De Goti, Colin McKee, Jones, Robinson, Manea <1>
3. IFAs aged 16-18 at signing who inked a contract in Aug 2015 or earlier: Urdaneta, Yeuris Ramirez, E. Valdez, Humberto Castellanos, L. Rodriguez, Paredes, Rosado, Felipe Tejada  <2>
4. IFAs aged 19 and older at signing who inked a contract in Aug 2016 or earlier: Anibal Sierra, Yohan Ramirez, Jose Bravo, Ronel Blanco, Carlos Sierra, Alfredo Angarita <3> <4>


<1>Problem #1 to fix is that Nick Hernandez, Ryne Birk and Colin McKee need to be added since RR failed to include them.
<2>Problem #2 to fix is that Yeuris Ramirez, Humberto Castellanos and Felipe Tejada need to be added since RR also failed to include them.
<3>Problem #3 to fix is that Anibal Sierra, Yohan Ramirez, Jose Bravo, Carlos Sierra and Alfredo Angarita need to be added since again RR failed to include them.
<4>Problem #4 to fix is certainly the biggest name of all and involves the incorrect inclusion rather than incorrect exclusion. That would be Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez was signed by the Dodgers on June 15, 2016. That was a mere 12 days away from his birthday. A birthday on which he would have turned 19.  So he instead falls into Category 3 (age 16-18 at signing) which means he still has one more year before becoming subject to the Rule 5.


So the corrected list with the 60 players who have an R5 bullseye on them...

RHP Brandon Bailey
RHP Ronel Blanco
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Jose Bravo
RHP Humberto Castellanos
RHP Chad Donato
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Nick Hernandez
RHP Cristian Javier
RHP Carson LaRue
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Colin McKee
RHP Enoli Paredes
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yohan Ramirez
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez
RHP Cesar Rosado
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Carlos Sanabria
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Carlos Sierra
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Felipe Tejada
RHP Gabriel Valdez

LHP Brett Adcock
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Ryan Hartman
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman

C Oscar Campos
C Ruben Castro
C Scott Manea
C Jamie Ritchie
C Chuckie Robinson

1B Taylor Jones

3B Abraham Toro

SS Jonathan Arauz
SS Anibal Sierra
SS Miguelangel Sierra

INF Alfredo Angarita
INF Ryne Birk
INF Juan Pineda
INF Yeuris Ramirez
INF Nick Tanielu
INF Ronaldo Urdaneta
INF Enmanuel Valdez

UTIL Alex De Goti
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez

OF Carmen Benedetti
OF Ronnie Dawson
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda
OF Stephen Wrenn

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


Remind me to shoot myself if I ever cite RR again. MLBTR owns and/or is affiliated with RR but the accuracy of one certainly doesn't extend to the other.