Author Topic: Keuchel (Read 13155 times)

juliogotay · « **on:** December 11, 2018, 08:37:02 am »

Keuchel and Free Agency:

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/12/10/dallas-keuchel-winter-meetings-free-agency?xid=socialflow_twitter_si&utm_campaign=si-mlb&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social

jbm · « **Reply #1 on:** December 11, 2018, 08:51:28 am »

Interesting read. Sometimes, I wonder if teams overthink these things.

JimR · « **Reply #2 on:** December 11, 2018, 09:19:07 am »

As my pal Matt Hudson said best: the Astros got Keuchel’s best. He is in decline.

geezerdonk · « **Reply #3 on:** December 11, 2018, 10:30:15 am »

Keuchel has always pitched on the thinnest of margins. His ability to stay within the margins has deteriorated and hitters have made adjustments. My guess is that he will have a hard time getting a contract anywhere near what he thinks that he is worth.

Fredia · « **Reply #4 on:** December 11, 2018, 10:54:08 am »

sadly I agree with you or he would have something by now

Col. Sphinx Drummond · « **Reply #5 on:** December 11, 2018, 11:19:57 am »

Quote from: JimR on December 11, 2018, 09:19:07 am

As my pal Matt Hudson said best: the Astros got Keuchel’s best. He is in decline.

I agree. I think a even bigger problem is his ability to stay healthy for a full season. After 2015 I had hoped he would be able to have a career like Mark Buehrle , a rugged, quick working, control pitcher with a fastball topping out in the mid 80s. Keuchel is not rugged. I think he is still capable of pitching well on occasion. Atlanta would be a good landing spot for him.

Waldo · « **Reply #6 on:** December 11, 2018, 12:38:30 pm »

Quote from: Col. Sphinx Drummond on December 11, 2018, 11:19:57 am

I think a even bigger problem is his ability to stay healthy for a full season.

He started a career-high 34 games in 2018.

juliogotay · « **Reply #7 on:** December 11, 2018, 01:01:12 pm »

Quote from: geezerdonk on December 11, 2018, 10:30:15 am

Keuchel has always pitched on the thinnest of margins. His ability to stay within the margins has deteriorated and hitters have made adjustments. My guess is that he will have a hard time getting a contract anywhere near what he thinks that he is worth.

And what Boras has convinced him he is worth.

Col. Sphinx Drummond · « **Reply #8 on:** December 11, 2018, 03:48:17 pm »

Quote from: Waldo on December 11, 2018, 12:38:30 pm

He started a career-high 34 games in 2018.

2016 & 2017.

Waldo · « **Reply #9 on:** December 12, 2018, 09:59:01 am »

Quote from: Col. Sphinx Drummond on December 11, 2018, 03:48:17 pm

2016 & 2017.

Right, but he was pretty durable before that and after that.

das · « **Reply #10 on:** December 12, 2018, 03:32:55 pm »

Quote from: Waldo on December 11, 2018, 12:38:30 pm

He started a career-high 34 games in 2018.

...and, 200+ innings. Although, since it was a walk year, I'm sure he would have pitched until his arm fell off to make that number.

I was thinking about him a bit yesterday. I'm not convinced that his performance last year was decreasing control. He lives (and dies) at the bottom of the zone so much and his big bump and BAA and # of hits (highest in all of the AL last year) can probably be explained away by him coming up (and ever so slightly in) in the zone. His heat maps are not representative of someone loosing control (overall diameter increase, significant increase in core diameter) but instead shows a tightening of the core. Instead, they indicate an intentionality to go a bit up and in. I'm wondering if this is 1) because he's lost the bottom of the zone to the umps (no longer getting the benefit of the doubt 3 years removed from his Cy campaign) and 2) trying to jam the uppercut swingers inside. He did a good job on #2 but the soft contact dribblers generated by #1 were death by 1,000 cuts.

Col. Sphinx Drummond · « **Reply #11 on:** December 12, 2018, 06:47:56 pm »

Quote from: Waldo on December 12, 2018, 09:59:01 am

Right, but he was pretty durable before that and after that.

Yeah. I hope he stays healthy and pitches great against all but the Astros.

VirtualBob · « **Reply #12 on:** December 14, 2018, 08:36:48 am »

Quote from: das on December 12, 2018, 03:32:55 pm

...and, 200+ innings. Although, since it was a walk year, I'm sure he would have pitched until his arm fell off to make that number.

I was thinking about him a bit yesterday. I'm not convinced that his performance last year was decreasing control. He lives (and dies) at the bottom of the zone so much and his big bump and BAA and # of hits (highest in all of the AL last year) can probably be explained away by him coming up (and ever so slightly in) in the zone. His heat maps are not representative of someone loosing control (overall diameter increase, significant increase in core diameter) but instead shows a tightening of the core. Instead, they indicate an intentionality to go a bit up and in. I'm wondering if this is 1) because he's lost the bottom of the zone to the umps (no longer getting the benefit of the doubt 3 years removed from his Cy campaign) and 2) trying to jam the uppercut swingers inside. He did a good job on #2 but the soft contact dribblers generated by #1 were death by 1,000 cuts.

This sounds very reasonable. Thanks for the observations/speculations.

HudsonHawk · « **Reply #13 on:** December 14, 2018, 09:52:10 am »

Personally, I think he's just in decline and doesn't have the strength he did a few years ago. When you get tired, you tend to go up in the zone. And when you're already on a razor thin margin, even losing a little can make a big difference.

In short, he's just getting older and his best years are behind him.

JimR · « **Reply #14 on:** December 14, 2018, 11:36:37 am »

His attempt to pitch inside to RH hitters was a disaster. He did better staying away with sinkers and changeups.

juliogotay · « **Reply #15 on:** January 07, 2019, 12:41:45 pm »

I don't know if this has been previously reported but the Astros offered Keuchel a 5-year extension after his CY season.

•Southpaw Dallas Keuchel stands as the most decorated starter remaining on the open market, but if the Astros had their way, he wouldn’t be available. The Astros offered Keuchel a five-year, $90MM extension early in the 2016 campaign, but he turned it down, according to Rosenthal. At that point, Keuchel was a 28-year-old coming off an AL Cy Young-winning season. Now 31, Keuchel hasn’t been quite as effective since his career-best campaign, though he remains an above-average starter and should rake in a high-paying multiyear deal before the offseason is out. Having made $22.35MM in salaries since he rejected the Astros’ offer, Keuchel will need to sign for $67.65MM as a free agent in order to match what Houston offered him, Rosenthal notes.

TenThirty · « **Reply #16 on:** June 07, 2019, 10:33:53 am »

Good signing by the Braves. A motivated Keuchel to mentor a young rotation. 13M for the rest of the season, means he will have made about $40M in the first four years of the 5 year contract he was offered and rejected in 2016. Looks like he is going to wind up out about $25-30M or so over the period - misplayed his hand. Still wish him nothing but the best.

I suppose if he had signed that, we might not have made all the moves we did (specifically Cole), so no regrets on this side either.

MRaup · « **Reply #17 on:** June 07, 2019, 10:41:30 am »

Quote from: TenThirty on June 07, 2019, 10:33:53 am

Good signing by the Braves. A motivated Keuchel to mentor a young rotation. 13M for the rest of the season, means he will have made about $40M in the first four years of the 5 year contract he was offered and rejected in 2016. Looks like he is going to wind up out about $25-30M or so over the period - misplayed his hand. Still wish him nothing but the best.

I suppose if he had signed that, we might not have made all the moves we did (specifically Cole), so no regrets on this side either.

Where is this narrative that Keuchel will be some kind of mentor to anyone coming from? He was a whiner that bitched publicly instead of keeping his bullshit drama inside the clubhouse when he was with the Astros. Did he go to How-To-Stop-Being-A-Douche camp while he wasn't playing ball?

geezerdonk · « **Reply #18 on:** June 07, 2019, 12:25:49 pm »

Maybe a change of scenery will help, but I doubt it. If you are a malcontent playing for the Astros, it is unlikely that you can be happy anywhere.

Mr. Happy · « **Reply #19 on:** June 07, 2019, 03:51:35 pm »

Assuming that they don't find his health in trouble, he'll start tomorrow night for Gwinnett.

MusicMan · « **Reply #20 on:** June 07, 2019, 04:30:29 pm »

He dominated in getting us back to the postseason, he played a key role in our championship, and I’m grateful.

And he’s gone, and I won’t lose a wink of sleep about it.

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BizidyDizidy · « **Reply #21 on:** June 07, 2019, 05:00:25 pm »

Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out

chuck · « **Reply #22 on:** June 07, 2019, 05:04:39 pm »

You necks are out of control. The guy won a fucking Cy Young award with the team. So he has an opinion. Who cares. Christ, at least he didn't do something unforgivable like protest police brutality.

Mr. Happy · « **Reply #23 on:** June 07, 2019, 05:23:24 pm »

In my opinion, Keuchel is a descending player. We got the best of him. His stuff is, and always has been, marginal.

VirtualBob · « **Reply #24 on:** June 07, 2019, 07:58:19 pm »

Quote from: geezerdonk on June 07, 2019, 12:25:49 pm

Maybe a change of scenery will help, but I doubt it. If you are a malcontent playing for the Astros, it is unlikely that you can be happy anywhere.

Wherever you go, there you are.

VirtualBob · « **Reply #25 on:** June 07, 2019, 07:59:22 pm »

Quote from: Mr. Happy on June 07, 2019, 05:23:24 pm

In my opinion, Keuchel is a descending player. We got the best of him. His stuff is, and always has been, marginal.

This.

MRaup · « **Reply #26 on:** June 07, 2019, 08:04:52 pm »

Quote from: chuck on June 07, 2019, 05:04:39 pm

You necks are out of control. The guy won a fucking Cy Young award with the team. So he has an opinion. Who cares. Christ, at least he didn't do something unforgivable like protest police brutality.

Because that's a totally legit comparison on the TalkZone.

BizidyDizidy · « **Reply #27 on:** June 07, 2019, 08:43:20 pm »

Who gives a shit, just think he's a slightly above average player who still thinks he's Cy Young

chuck · « **Reply #28 on:** June 07, 2019, 09:44:42 pm »

The animus is totally unnecessary, unwarranted and, frankly, unbecoming.

BizidyDizidy · « **Reply #29 on:** June 07, 2019, 09:58:50 pm »

Yes, it's totally normal for a player to reject the QO (and other offers) and not sign until mid June.

chuck · « **Reply #30 on:** June 07, 2019, 10:06:08 pm »

Quote from: BizidyDizidy on June 07, 2019, 09:58:50 pm

Yes, it's totally normal for a player to reject the QO (and other offers) and not sign until mid June.

Why do you care? You goons are cheering what you perceive as his misfortune and celebrating his absence. It's just ugly and unnecessary.

BizidyDizidy · « **Reply #31 on:** June 07, 2019, 10:09:12 pm »

C'mon Chuck. He could've been contributing to this team for months. You must've read his ruminations on his true value vs. what every MLB club offered him. Wasn't a very player sympathetic story to me.

HudsonHawk · « **Reply #32 on:** June 07, 2019, 10:43:16 pm »

I kinda agree with chuck here. Keuchel is not a bad guy, he is simply not worth what he thinks he is, and his hubris has cost him tens of millions of dollars. But it's impious to exult over the slain.

WVastro · « **Reply #33 on:** June 07, 2019, 10:45:20 pm »

Quote from: chuck on June 07, 2019, 10:06:08 pm

Why do you care? You goons are cheering what you perceive as his misfortune and celebrating his absence. It's just ugly and unnecessary.

This is exactly how I feel.

chuck · « **Reply #34 on:** June 07, 2019, 10:48:19 pm »

I'm not advocating sympathy, dude. It's clear that he misplayed his hand. I just think the Schadenfreude is a bad look. And, also, the unbridled joy that he's not an Astro any longer. I don't get that at all.

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #35 on:** June 08, 2019, 02:22:22 am »

How many of these necks will boo Keuchel when he shows up in Houston at some point, just like they did Beltran. Morons

As for DK and his salary, well he is paying big bucks to his agent to handle that. That dude, Boras, royally over played that hand, to the point of negligence.

But yeah, fuck one the guys who helped lead the Astros out of the wilderness all the way to a World Series. .....

juliogotay · « **Reply #36 on:** June 08, 2019, 09:27:56 am »

Quote from: HudsonHawk on June 07, 2019, 10:43:16 pm

I kinda agree with chuck here. Keuchel is not a bad guy, he is simply not worth what he thinks he is, and his hubris has cost him tens of millions of dollars. But it's impious to exult over the slain.

And he was the one Crane asked to call JV to let him know he "would like it here". Certainly could not have been viewed by management as a malcontent at that time.

Snuffy · « **Reply #37 on:** June 09, 2019, 10:05:40 am »

Quote from: juliogotay on June 08, 2019, 09:27:56 am

And he was the one Crane asked to call JV to let him know he "would like it here". Certainly could not have been viewed by management as a malcontent at that time.

+1

Snuffy · « **Reply #38 on:** June 09, 2019, 10:19:56 am »

Quote from: juliogotay on June 08, 2019, 09:27:56 am

And he was the one Crane asked to call JV to let him know he "would like it here". Certainly could not have been viewed by management as a malcontent at that time.

+1
Surely, deep down, he knew that JV would become the anchor of the staff if he joined the Astros.

utastro · « **Reply #39 on:** June 12, 2019, 10:52:51 pm »

Wasn’t DK offered a $17 million+ QO this season? Between rejecting the extension and the QO, he’s left a lot of money on the table.

Gizzmonic · « **Reply #40 on:** June 18, 2019, 11:50:44 am »

I guess everyone already knows this, but Keuchel signed with the Braves:

https://theathletic.com/1015756/2019/06/06/braves-make-big-move-agree-to-13m-rest-of-year-deal-with-dallas-keuchel/

TerryPuhl21 · « **Reply #41 on:** June 18, 2019, 01:05:55 pm »

His first start for the Braves is Friday night. In his last minor league start at AA, he gave up 11 hits and 3 runs in what I think was 7 innings.

I’m wishing him no ill will. Pulling for him unless we have to play Atlanta. Having said that, I’m betting his season is going to be ugly. We find out Friday night.

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JimR · « **Reply #42 on:** June 18, 2019, 01:55:14 pm »

Quote from: TerryPuhl21 on June 18, 2019, 01:05:55 pm

His first start for the Braves is Friday night. In his last minor league start at AA, he gave up 11 hits and 3 runs in what I think was 7 innings.

I’m wishing him no ill will. Pulling for him unless we have to play Atlanta. Having said that, I’m betting his season is going to be ugly. We find out Friday night.

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Screw Keuchel.

geezerdonk · « **Reply #43 on:** June 18, 2019, 03:53:18 pm »

Who's Keuchel?

Mr. Happy · « **Reply #44 on:** June 20, 2019, 09:57:26 am »

Quote from: JimR on June 18, 2019, 01:55:14 pm

Screw Keuchel.

+1

doyce7 · « **Reply #45 on:** July 16, 2019, 09:02:00 pm »

I know he isn't very popular around here these days but having Keuchel on this team right now would be a huge help.

He's 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA for Atlanta in 5 starts averaging over 6 innings a start, 7+ innings in his last 3 starts

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JimR · « **Reply #46 on:** July 16, 2019, 09:19:55 pm »

Quote from: doyce7 on July 16, 2019, 09:02:00 pm

I know he isn't very popular around here these days but having Keuchel on this team right now would be a huge help.

He's 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA for Atlanta in 5 starts averaging over 6 innings a start, 7+ innings in his last 3 starts

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His choice. He could have been on this team two different times. Fuck him.

doyce7 · « **Reply #47 on:** July 16, 2019, 09:55:51 pm »

Quote from: JimR on July 16, 2019, 09:19:55 pm

His choice. He could have been on this team two different times. Fuck him.

While it's true he could have been on this team, I'll never hold it against a player for trying to make more money, if he thinks he can. He bet wrong and his pocket will pay for it.

Not taking the offer in 2016 was a reasonable gamble and not taking the qualifying offer? Nobody takes the qualifying offer.

I wish him well, I know you do not and that's ok. But the Astros didn't make a real offer to return this offseason, that I've read. So they are just as much to blame for him not being an Astro.

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JimR · « **Reply #48 on:** July 16, 2019, 10:03:13 pm »

Quote from: doyce7 on July 16, 2019, 09:55:51 pm

While it's true he could have been on this team, I'll never hold it against a player for trying to make more money, if he thinks he can. He bet wrong and his pocket will pay for it.

Not taking the offer in 2016 was a reasonable gamble and not taking the qualifying offer? Nobody takes the qualifying offer.

I wish him well, I know you do not and that's ok. But the Astros didn't make a real offer to return this offseason, that I've read. So they are just as much to blame for him not being an Astro.

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Bullshit, doyce. Bullshit. One year at $17.5 million is a real offer. Kiss his sss all you want. Glad he is elsewhere.

doyce7 · « **Reply #49 on:** July 16, 2019, 10:12:30 pm »

Quote from: JimR on July 16, 2019, 10:03:13 pm

Bullshit, doyce. Bullshit. One year at $17.5 million is a real offer. Kiss his sss all you want. Glad he is elsewhere.

You don't extend a QO if you think the guy is going to accept it, otherwise they would have offered CFM one. You only offer it to guys who you think are going to sign a 50+ million dollar deal. Only 2 guys have ever signed the QO, Colby Rasmus after 2015 and Hyun-Jin Ryu last offseason. They did not want him and that's fine. But now they are paying for lack of SP depth.

If he continues pitching this way the rest of the season he will make up his money in the offseason.

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chuck · « **Reply #50 on:** July 16, 2019, 10:29:33 pm »

Quote from: JimR on July 16, 2019, 10:03:13 pm

Glad he is elsewhere.

Me too. I'm digging Framber and Hector as much as everyone else is.

doyce7 · « **Reply #51 on:** July 16, 2019, 10:41:57 pm »

Quote from: chuck on July 16, 2019, 10:29:33 pm

Me too. I'm digging Framber and Hector as much as everyone else is.

I just don't get it. Marwin signed elsewhere, gets nothing but love. Morton signs elsewhere, gets nothing but love. Kuechel? Fuck that guy for leaving. Was Dallas outspoken, yeah, but so is Justin Verlander. Can you see Verlander giving that "disappointed" interview that Kuechel got so much shit for? I can.

He, along with Altuve, Marwin and Springer are what turned this franchise around and got them going in the right direction.

Was he kind of a dick sometimes? Maybe.
He he bitch about strikezones? Yeah he did but what pitcher doesn't?
Should he have taken the deal in 2016? Probably but I understand the decision.
Should have taken the QO? No, absolutely not. Did it backfire? Yeah sure but don't forget, it wasn't just Kuechel who misread the market and cost himself money. Many guys did.

The hate just seems too strong for what he "did"

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chuck · « **Reply #52 on:** July 16, 2019, 11:12:27 pm »

He didn't do shit other than pitch his ass off, win key games in tough places to pitch and win a Cy Young award.

Other than that, fuck that guy.

HudsonHawk · « **Reply #53 on:** July 17, 2019, 07:03:00 am »

Quote from: doyce7 on July 16, 2019, 09:55:51 pm

.... But the Astros didn't make a real offer to return this offseason, that I've read. So they are just as much to blame for him not being an Astro.

They offered him more than anyone else was willing to. How much over market value does it take to be "real"?

HudsonHawk · « **Reply #54 on:** July 17, 2019, 07:04:50 am »

Quote from: doyce7 on July 16, 2019, 10:41:57 pm

I just don't get it. Marwin signed elsewhere, gets nothing but love. Morton signs elsewhere, gets nothing but love. Kuechel? Fuck that guy for leaving.

No one faults guys for taking more money elsewhere. That doesn't apply to Keuchel, however.

Col. Sphinx Drummond · « **Reply #55 on:** July 17, 2019, 07:36:58 am »

I still like Keuchel but not as much as I did in 2015.

doyce7 · « **Reply #56 on:** July 17, 2019, 08:02:35 am »

Quote from: HudsonHawk on July 17, 2019, 07:03:00 am

They offered him more than anyone else was willing to. How much over market value does it take to be "real"?

If you were Kuechel, would you have accepted the QO? I wouldn't have, once again, only 2 guys ever have. The 2 guys that accepted, Colby Rasmus who would have never gotten near that and Hyun-Jin Ryu who is older than Kuechel and had pitched 41 games in the prior 4 seasons.

My point with all this is that making an offer that you know will be rejected, isn't actually making an offer.

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Ty in Tampa · « **Reply #57 on:** July 17, 2019, 08:59:44 am »

I feel the same for Keuchel as I do for CFM and Marwin. I wish they were all still Astros. They aren't so I don't really think of them much.

HudsonHawk · « **Reply #58 on:** July 17, 2019, 09:14:16 am »

Quote from: doyce7 on July 17, 2019, 08:02:35 am

If you were Kuechel, would you have accepted the QO? I wouldn't have, once again, only 2 guys ever have. The 2 guys that accepted, Colby Rasmus who would have never gotten near that and Hyun-Jin Ryu who is older than Kuechel and had pitched 41 games in the prior 4 seasons.

I don't know. I'd like to think I'm more self aware than Keuchel is, but maybe I wouldn't be. His agent advised him to take it.

Quote

My point with all this is that making an offer that you know will be rejected, isn't actually making an offer.

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My point is that's ridiculous. Offering a guy far more than he's worth on the open market and that other teams are willing to offer certainly qualifies as a legitimate. I would not have even made the QO to him and still felt like I made a legitimate offer.

Keuchel was very clear about the Astros offer in 2016 and the QO: "I'm not going to *not* test free agent waters, not matter what the Astros offer." I get it. That doesn't mean the Astros somehow tried to cheat him.

HudsonHawk · « **Reply #59 on:** July 17, 2019, 09:18:03 am »

Quote from: Col. Sphinx Drummond on July 17, 2019, 07:36:58 am

I still like Keuchel but not as much as I did in 2015.

I like Keuchel just fine, and harbor no ill will towards him. I appreciate all he did for the Astros. But his best days are behind him, and he's simply not worth what he thinks he is. That doesn't make either of us bad people.

JimR · « **Reply #60 on:** July 17, 2019, 09:56:34 am »

Quote from: HudsonHawk on July 17, 2019, 09:18:03 am

I like Keuchel just fine, and harbor no ill will towards him. I appreciate all he did for the Astros. But his best days are behind him, and he's simply not worth what he thinks he is. That doesn't make either of us bad people.

Keuchel is just fine where he is. Of course, he is not a bad person. What sets me off every time is “the Astros never made him a ‘real’ offer and are as much to blame for his leaving as he is.”

Tom Servo · « **Reply #61 on:** July 17, 2019, 10:36:30 am »

https://theathletic.com/1081094/2019/07/17/turned-off-by-astros-offers-keuchel-happy-being-a-perfect-fit-in-braves-puzzle/

Quote

Unlike other free agents who caved and accepted far less than they were looking for as the offseason wore on or even as spring training was getting underway, Keuchel and Kimbrel, who had rejected Boston’s qualifying offer, refused to just take the best offer they could get. The spurned proposals included a pair of offers that Keuchel found particularly distasteful from the Astros in March: $15 million for one year or $24 million for two.

...

Keuchel said it was important to him that he sign an offer worth more than the $17.9 million qualifying offer he turned down, even if on a prorated basis. It was the principle of it.

“That was very important for me,” he said. “Because under no circumstances has it ever happened before where a guy turns down a qualifying offer, and the club that offered the qualifying offer ended up offering less for a one-year deal without even throwing a pitch. The season hadn’t started, spring training hadn’t even started, and I was offered less from the (Houston) team that I was offered in the qualifying offer.

“That just shows you how some teams operate. That’s not how I do business or how I think anybody else would do business in my shoes. So that was really the main focal point of kind of branching this thing out to where it was. And prorated or not, I think contractually where I’m at right now is a lot better place than I would be if I was back in Houston.”

HudsonHawk · « **Reply #62 on:** July 17, 2019, 10:46:26 am »

Quote from: Tom Servo on July 17, 2019, 10:36:30 am

https://theathletic.com/1081094/2019/07/17/turned-off-by-astros-offers-keuchel-happy-being-a-perfect-fit-in-braves-puzzle/

Hey, whatever Keuchel needs to tell himself to justify the fact that he cost himself tens of millions of dollars. I'd probably try to spin the shit out of it too. That doesn't mean the QO was some ridiculous low ball.

BlownRanger · « **Reply #63 on:** July 17, 2019, 11:03:49 am »

Quote from: doyce7 on July 17, 2019, 08:02:35 am

If you were Kuechel, would you have accepted the QO? I wouldn't have, once again, only 2 guys ever have. The 2 guys that accepted, Colby Rasmus who would have never gotten near that and Hyun-Jin Ryu who is older than Kuechel and had pitched 41 games in the prior 4 seasons.

My point with all this is that making an offer that you know will be rejected, isn't actually making an offer.

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Actually, Matt Wieters and Brett Anderson accepted QOs just days after Colby.

My biggest beef with Keuchel was when he would have a pitching lline like 2.3 IP, 8 hits, 5 runs; and then after the game say something like "I thought I threw pretty well today".

doyce7 · « **Reply #64 on:** July 17, 2019, 08:50:35 pm »

Quote from: BlownRanger on July 17, 2019, 11:03:49 am

Actually, Matt Wieters and Brett Anderson accepted QOs just days after Colby.

My biggest beef with Keuchel was when he would have a pitching lline like 2.3 IP, 8 hits, 5 runs; and then after the game say something like "I thought I threw pretty well today".

I forgot about Wieters and Anderson. Man that was an odd year for QO's.

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doyce7 · « **Reply #65 on:** July 17, 2019, 09:05:24 pm »

Quote from: HudsonHawk on July 17, 2019, 09:14:16 am

My point is that's ridiculous. Offering a guy far more than he's worth on the open market and that other teams are willing to offer certainly qualifies as a legitimate. I would not have even made the QO to him and still felt like I made a legitimate offer.

The only way to know if the QO is more or less than market value is to decline the offer. Once you decline the offer, it's gone and you are stuck. Again, his fault but that's why I say it isn't a real offer. We are not going to agree about this, that's fine. I'll move on, no sense in this back and forth continuing.

[quote author=HudsonHawk link=topic=120603.msg658376#msg658376 date=1563372856
Keuchel was very clear about the Astros offer in 2016 and the QO: "I'm not going to *not* test free agent waters, not matter what the Astros offer." I get it. That doesn't mean the Astros somehow tried to cheat him.
[/quote]

I don't think the Astros tried to cheat him but I also don't think they really wanted him back unless it was at a huge discount. And that's ok. Kuechel bet on himself and he lost. The Astros bet on not needing him and were mostly right, until recently.

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HudsonHawk · « **Reply #66 on:** July 18, 2019, 06:34:32 am »

Quote from: doyce7 on July 17, 2019, 09:05:24 pm

The only way to know if the QO is more or less than market value is to decline the offer. Once you decline the offer, it's gone and you are stuck. Again, his fault but that's why I say it isn't a real offer. We are not going to agree about this, that's fine. I'll move on, no sense in this back and forth continuing.

Fine, we'll agree to disagree. I just don't see how you can say $17.9MM was a low ball when it was clearly more than anybody else was willing to offer. And don't get me started on the $90MM he turned down in 2016...

Quote

I don't think the Astros tried to cheat him but I also don't think they really wanted him back unless it was at a huge discount. And that's ok. Kuechel bet on himself and he lost. The Astros bet on not needing him and were mostly right, until recently.

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Discount? Again, it was more than anyone else was willing to pay him. The Astros tried to sign him at OVER his market value. TWICE! I get that he overvalued himself. That doesn't mean that the Astros tried to discount him. They were clearly the highest offer.

JimR · « **Reply #67 on:** July 18, 2019, 07:35:09 am »

Quote from: HudsonHawk on July 18, 2019, 06:34:32 am

Fine, we'll agree to disagree. I just don't see how you can say $17.9MM was a low ball when it was clearly more than anybody else was willing to offer. And don't get me started on the $90MM he turned down in 2016...

Discount? Again, it was more than anyone else was willing to pay him. The Astros tried to sign him at OVER his market value. TWICE! I get that he overvalued himself. That doesn't mean that the Astros tried to discount him. They were clearly the highest offer.

Absolutely this. No other team offered him as much as the Astros. The attitude that anything under what he wanted was lowball and not a “real” offer is simply wrong. Keuchel wanted to leave. Good for him.

Mr. Happy · « **Reply #68 on:** July 18, 2019, 10:41:51 am »

Quote from: HudsonHawk on July 18, 2019, 06:34:32 am

Fine, we'll agree to disagree. I just don't see how you can say $17.9MM was a low ball when it was clearly more than anybody else was willing to offer. And don't get me started on the $90MM he turned down in 2016...

Discount? Again, it was more than anyone else was willing to pay him. The Astros tried to sign him at OVER his market value. TWICE! I get that he overvalued himself. That doesn't mean that the Astros tried to discount him. They were clearly the highest offer.

Absolutely right, HH.

geezerdonk · « **Reply #69 on:** July 18, 2019, 12:02:58 pm »

That's right. He wanted to leave. He was no longer in the spot light. All the attention was being directed to Verlander and Cole. Ego can be expensive.

JimR · « **Reply #70 on:** July 18, 2019, 01:03:10 pm »

Quote from: geezerdonk on July 18, 2019, 12:02:58 pm

That's right. He wanted to leave. He was no longer in the spot light. All the attention was being directed to Verlander and Cole. Ego can be expensive.

Yup

D.WARD · « **Reply #71 on:** July 18, 2019, 02:34:56 pm »

If we are talking about wishing someone would have re-signed, I would say Charlie Morton is the one who is missed. He is currently 11-2 with a 2.35 and 148K's. I would say that Miley came along much cheaper than Keuchel and has done just as good of a job, if not better than Keuchel did last year.

JimR · « **Reply #72 on:** July 18, 2019, 02:55:52 pm »

Quote from: D.WARD on July 18, 2019, 02:34:56 pm

If we are talking about wishing someone would have re-signed, I would say Charlie Morton is the one who is missed. He is currently 11-2 with a 2.35 and 148K's. I would say that Miley came along much cheaper than Keuchel and has done just as good of a job, if not better than Keuchel did last year.

Absolutely true. Both points.

das · « **Reply #73 on:** July 18, 2019, 03:33:38 pm »

Quote from: JimR on July 18, 2019, 07:35:09 am

Absolutely this. No other team offered him as much as the Astros. The attitude that anything under what he wanted was lowball and not a “real” offer is simply wrong. Keuchel wanted to leave. Good for him.

Exactly right. The Astros have offered him $15M, $17.9M, $24M and $90M in the last three years. He's turned them all down. The Astros were not the problem here.

das · « **Reply #74 on:** July 18, 2019, 03:37:11 pm »

Quote from: D.WARD on July 18, 2019, 02:34:56 pm

If we are talking about wishing someone would have re-signed, I would say Charlie Morton is the one who is missed. He is currently 11-2 with a 2.35 and 148K's. I would say that Miley came along much cheaper than Keuchel and has done just as good of a job, if not better than Keuchel did last year.

Yup. Months in now, his is the most stinging Astros loss of a FA in the entirety of my fandom. That said, the Rays offer was so extravagant, it even surprised Morton. It's proving to be a prescient move on their part, for sure, but it's hard to manage to such an outlier.

JimR · « **Reply #75 on:** July 18, 2019, 04:07:31 pm »

Quote from: das on July 18, 2019, 03:37:11 pm

Yup. Months in now, his is the most stinging Astros loss of a FA in the entirety of my fandom. That said, the Rays offer was so extravagant, it even surprised Morton. It's proving to be a prescient move on their part, for sure, but it's hard to manage to such an outlier.

He has not made through the season I injured yet either.

Mr. Happy · « **Reply #76 on:** July 19, 2019, 10:32:08 am »

Quote from: das on July 18, 2019, 03:37:11 pm

Yup. Months in now, his is the most stinging Astros loss of a FA in the entirety of my fandom. That said, the Rays offer was so extravagant, it even surprised Morton. It's proving to be a prescient move on their part, for sure, but it's hard to manage to such an outlier.

Bigger than the Big Unit? Beltran?

das · « **Reply #77 on:** July 19, 2019, 12:06:47 pm »

Quote from: Mr. Happy on July 19, 2019, 10:32:08 am

Bigger than the Big Unit? Beltran?

Yes on both accounts. For Beltran, he was a rental that I hoped would stay but felt confident that the team would still be a playoff contender with Bagwell, Biggio, Berkman, Ensberg, Lane, Palmeiro, etc… at the helm on offense and field defense. I was dazzled by his performance during the rental, for sure but also suspected he’d come back to earth over a full season, which he did and that might be the difference in a few games over the year. Which, in turn, would not have raised my expectations from playoff contender to WS contender.

Regarding Johnson, he was a rental and I never expected him to resign with the team. I had a hope but that was not based on anything other that fanboi desires and was deeply countered by the practical realities of the FA market at the time and known intelligence suggesting destinations on other teams.

About Morton, McCullers status was known and Morton represented the difference between WS aspirations and a potentially historic run for the year. Couple that with all the chatter about his happiness playing for THIS specific team, it was a shock and the implications were potentially noteworthy and actually being realized. So, yes, easily including Beltran and Johnson.

Mr. Happy · « **Reply #78 on:** July 20, 2019, 07:07:34 am »

Quote from: das on July 19, 2019, 12:06:47 pm

Yes on both accounts. For Beltran, he was a rental that I hoped would stay but felt confident that the team would still be a playoff contender with Bagwell, Biggio, Berkman, Ensberg, Lane, Palmeiro, etc… at the helm on offense and field defense. I was dazzled by his performance during the rental, for sure but also suspected he’d come back to earth over a full season, which he did and that might be the difference in a few games over the year. Which, in turn, would not have raised my expectations from playoff contender to WS contender.

Regarding Johnson, he was a rental and I never expected him to resign with the team. I had a hope but that was not based on anything other that fanboi desires and was deeply countered by the practical realities of the FA market at the time and known intelligence suggesting destinations on other teams.

About Morton, McCullers status was known and Morton represented the difference between WS aspirations and a potentially historic run for the year. Couple that with all the chatter about his happiness playing for THIS specific team, it was a shock and the implications were potentially noteworthy and actually being realized. So, yes, easily including Beltran and Johnson.

Excellent points. I knew we had no shot at the Big Unit, but I really thought we had Beltran.

MusicMan · « **Reply #79 on:** July 20, 2019, 09:19:24 am »

Quote from: Mr. Happy on July 20, 2019, 07:07:34 am

Excellent points. I knew we had no shot at the Big Unit, but I really thought we had Beltran.

I recall convincing myself that the massive turnout and response to Johnson’s starts would convince Drayton to keep him.

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BizidyDizidy · « **Reply #80 on:** July 20, 2019, 11:38:05 am »

I would say the failure to sign RJ over a 4th year was probably one of the most hilariously terrible fuckups of a personnel decision (in hindsight at the very least)

JimR · « **Reply #81 on:** July 20, 2019, 12:19:10 pm »

Quote from: BizidyDizidy on July 20, 2019, 11:38:05 am

I would say the failure to sign RJ over a 4th year was probably one of the most hilariously terrible fuckups of a personnel decision (in hindsight at the very least)

He was not going to stay in Houston. Mrs. Unit wanted Arizona.

Mr. Happy · « **Reply #82 on:** July 20, 2019, 12:25:09 pm »

Quote from: JimR on July 20, 2019, 12:19:10 pm

He was not going to stay in Houston. Mrs. Unit wanted Arizona.

That's exactly what I recall.

JimR · « **Reply #83 on:** July 20, 2019, 01:15:21 pm »

Quote from: Mr. Happy on July 20, 2019, 12:25:09 pm

That's exactly what I recall.

Maybe was her home