Author Topic: .OPS+ (Read 5826 times)

juliogotay · « **on:** May 29, 2018, 10:23:59 am »

Interesting pregame radio interview yesterday with Astros Sr. Dir. of Baseball Operations/Research and Innovation Brandon Taubman.
Some interesting things including that they really like .OPS+ as a stat. They have their own "secret sauce" formula for evaluating players but it is very similar to .OPS+. Taubman agree with Sparks that they should put a players .OPS on the scoreboard when a player comes to bat rather than the .BA.

jbm · « **Reply #1 on:** May 29, 2018, 10:27:22 am »

We'll need a new Mendoza line.

JimR · « **Reply #2 on:** May 29, 2018, 10:44:09 am »

Quote from: juliogotay on May 29, 2018, 10:23:59 am

Interesting pregame radio interview yesterday with Astros Sr. Dir. of Baseball Operations/Research and Innovation Brandon Taubman.
Some interesting things including that they really like .OPS+ as a stat. They have their own "secret sauce" formula for evaluating players but it is very similar to .OPS+. Taubman agree with Sparks that they should put a players .OPS on the scoreboard when a player comes to bat rather than the .BA.

Barf

MusicMan · « **Reply #3 on:** May 29, 2018, 10:50:21 am »

By "secret sauce", they mean it's more similar to wOBA or wRC+, which weight walks, HBP, singles, doubles, triples, and homers all differently, and each according to how common they are across the league for that year.

It's like saying "yes, you should definitely use Ragu, spaghetti is fabulous", but not mentioning the fact that your sauce uses completely different ingredients.

juliogotay · « **Reply #4 on:** May 29, 2018, 02:01:40 pm »

Quote from: MusicMan on May 29, 2018, 10:50:21 am

By "secret sauce", they mean it's more similar to wOBA or wRC+, which weight walks, HBP, singles, doubles, triples, and homers all differently, and each according to how common they are across the league for that year.

It's like saying "yes, you should definitely use Ragu, spaghetti is fabulous", but not mentioning the fact that your sauce uses completely different ingredients.

He specifically said their sauce was similar to wRC or OPS+. He specifically said OPS is a "pretty good metric.....we all ought to pay attention to it".

Reuben · « **Reply #5 on:** May 30, 2018, 10:16:23 am »

Quote from: MusicMan on May 29, 2018, 10:50:21 am

By "secret sauce", they mean it's more similar to wOBA or wRC+, which weight walks, HBP, singles, doubles, triples, and homers all differently, and each according to how common they are across the league for that year.

It's like saying "yes, you should definitely use Ragu, spaghetti is fabulous", but not mentioning the fact that your sauce uses completely different ingredients.

I imagine their formula also incorporates batted-ball data (exit velo, launch angle, yada yada), rather than just using the game outcomes. So someone who's hit lots of screaming liners right at fielders still gets credit for doing something positive.

OPS+ is a great quick-and-dirty comparative stat. Obviously it's leaving a whole lot of things out. But every stat does, if you only choose to look at one single stat.

JimR · « **Reply #6 on:** May 30, 2018, 10:31:32 am »

Quote from: Reuben on May 30, 2018, 10:16:23 am

I imagine their formula also incorporates batted-ball data (exit velo, launch angle, yada yada), rather than just using the game outcomes. So someone who's hit lots of screaming liners right at fielders still gets credit for doing something positive.

OPS+ is a great quick-and-dirty comparative stat. Obviously it's leaving a whole lot of things out. But every stat does, if you only choose to look at one single stat.

OPS is nothing but a sum of two numbers, and you have to look at the individual numbers to know what kind of hitter he is.

Astros Fan in Big D · « **Reply #7 on:** May 30, 2018, 11:13:01 am »

Quote from: JimR on May 30, 2018, 10:31:32 am

OPS is nothing but a sum of two numbers, and you have to look at the individual numbers to know what kind of hitter he is.

3 statisticians are hunting in the woods and encounter a deer.

The first one shoots and misses to the left.
The second one shoots and misses to the right.

The third one says "We got him!"

Reuben · « **Reply #8 on:** May 30, 2018, 11:31:12 am »

Quote from: JimR on May 30, 2018, 10:31:32 am

OPS is nothing but a sum of two numbers, and you have to look at the individual numbers to know what kind of hitter he is.

So if you had to pick only one stat to look at, with no idea what the other stats were, what would you choose?

HudsonHawk · « **Reply #9 on:** May 30, 2018, 12:10:17 pm »

Quote from: Reuben on May 30, 2018, 11:31:12 am

So if you had to pick only one stat to look at, with no idea what the other stats were, what would you choose?

Why would you look at only one stat? That's like using only one ingredient in your spaghetti sauce.

Reuben · « **Reply #10 on:** May 30, 2018, 01:52:44 pm »

Quote from: HudsonHawk on May 30, 2018, 12:10:17 pm

Why would you look at only one stat? That's like using only one ingredient in your spaghetti sauce.

Oh, I'm not advocating only looking at one stat. But if one were forced to choose between, say, Batting Average and OPS+ as the one stat you could see - up on a scoreboard, in this discussion - OPS+ would be the better choice.

I'd like to see AVG/OBP/SLG along with HR and RBI, personally. Maybe even Plate Appearances.

JimR · « **Reply #11 on:** May 30, 2018, 02:38:17 pm »

Quote from: Reuben on May 30, 2018, 11:31:12 am

So if you had to pick only one stat to look at, with no idea what the other stats were, what would you choose?

Not OPS. That tells me nothing.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #12 on:** May 30, 2018, 02:49:09 pm »

Quote from: JimR on May 30, 2018, 02:38:17 pm

Not OPS. That tells me nothing.

I thought certainly you were going to say "vision."

HudsonHawk · « **Reply #13 on:** May 30, 2018, 08:34:13 pm »

Quote from: Reuben on May 30, 2018, 01:52:44 pm

Oh, I'm not advocating only looking at one stat. But if one were forced to choose between, say, Batting Average and OPS+ as the one stat you could see - up on a scoreboard, in this discussion - OPS+ would be the better choice.

I'd like to see AVG/OBP/SLG along with HR and RBI, personally. Maybe even Plate Appearances.

If you were making buscuits, and you could only use one ingredient...

Outlawscotty · « **Reply #14 on:** May 31, 2018, 06:41:01 am »

Quote from: HudsonHawk on May 30, 2018, 08:34:13 pm

If you were making buscuits, and you could only use one ingredient...

I'll take gravy for $100

MusicMan · « **Reply #15 on:** May 31, 2018, 08:11:15 am »

Quote from: Outlawscotty on May 31, 2018, 06:41:01 am

I'll take gravy for $100

$100 for gravy? Must’ve gone to Snooze.

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Col. Sphinx Drummond · « **Reply #16 on:** May 31, 2018, 10:50:13 am »

If some crazy person held a gun to your head and said you must make a lineup and could only use one stat, which stat would you choose? Average, OBP, OPS...etc.

MusicMan · « **Reply #17 on:** May 31, 2018, 11:06:16 am »

Quote from: Sphinx Drummond on May 31, 2018, 10:50:13 am

If some crazy person held a gun to your head and said you must make a lineup and could only use one stat, which stat would you choose? Average, OBP, OPS...etc.

Obviously whichever one the person holding the gun wanted me to.

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Col. Sphinx Drummond · « **Reply #18 on:** May 31, 2018, 04:21:41 pm »

Quote from: MusicMan on May 31, 2018, 11:06:16 am

Obviously whichever one the person holding the gun wanted me to.

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They really don't care and they kill you for asking.

Astros Fan in Big D · « **Reply #19 on:** May 31, 2018, 06:54:09 pm »

Quote from: Sphinx Drummond on May 31, 2018, 04:21:41 pm

They really don't care and they kill you for asking.

I knew those analytic types would be the end of us all.

JimR · « **Reply #20 on:** June 01, 2018, 08:24:14 am »

Them: “Wow!. He has an OPS of .950!

Me: “Really? What is his OBP?”

Them: “Dunno. I’ll look it up.”

Me: “Never mind. What is his SLG?”

Them: “Dunno. I’LL look it up.”

Crazy.

Col. Sphinx Drummond · « **Reply #21 on:** June 01, 2018, 12:26:49 pm »

Quote from: JimR on June 01, 2018, 08:24:14 am

Them: “Wow!. He has an OPS of .950!

Me: “Really? What is his OBP?”

Them: “Dunno. I’ll look it up.”

Me: “Never mind. What is his SLG?”

Them: “Dunno. I’LL look it up.”

Crazy.

Really. You have a good player and you don't know if he's a slugger or a high OBP guy or a combination of both.