BA prospect list

[toddthebod]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/astros-top-10-prospects-2018-222724/?utm_content=buffer64e4c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#9BtP3RHYyFlqeXg0.97

Top 4 is as expected.  But Nova, Solis, and Alcala in the top ten?  Thoughts? 

[VirtualBob]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/astros-top-10-prospects-2018-222724/?utm_content=buffer64e4c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#9BtP3RHYyFlqeXg0.97

Top 4 is as expected.  But Nova, Solis, and Alcala in the top ten?  Thoughts?

Alcala is that good, and I really like H.Perez.  That said, there are way too many of these "Top XXX" lists, and I think some of them go for shock value ... a sort of 'we are really ahead of the crowd calling _____ a top prospect'.  There is 0 downside and a lot of upside for them if they hit on one of these long shots.

[Reuben]

Alcala is that good, and I really like H.Perez.  That said, there are way too many of these "Top XXX" lists, and I think some of them go for shock value ... a sort of 'we are really ahead of the crowd calling _____ a top prospect'.  There is 0 downside and a lot of upside for them if they hit on one of these long shots.

I thought the same thing when BP put Jonathan Arauz up at #6 on their list.

[Reuben]

By the way, I listened to part of a BA podcast discussing Pirates prospects today. They were gushing about a pitcher (who I hadn't heard of until this, frankly) named Mitch Keller, who according to them is one of the very top pitching prospects in baseball. They said that, when they ask scouts what pitchers they like best (prospect-wise), they usually say either Keller, Reyes (from StL, injured this year), Buehler (LAD), or Forrest Whitley.

[Reuben]

More gushing praise for Whitley on the BA Top 100 Prospects podcast. They ranked him 10th overall; he's the 2nd pitcher on the list after Shohei Ohtani. Said scouts rave about him.

[juliogotay]

Baseball America has ranked the Astros has having 10th best ML farm system. The rest of the West has Angels at 14, Oakland 18, Texas 23 and Seattle 30.

[toddthebod]

A lot of the rating value comes from Tucker and Whitley.  How do they rank the rest of the Astros system?

[NeilT]

A lot of the rating value comes from Tucker and Whitley.  How do they rank the rest of the Astros system?

Not as well as they do with Tucker and Whitley.

[juliogotay]

A lot of the rating value comes from Tucker and Whitley.  How do they rank the rest of the Astros system?

Something called Baseball Pipeline has Houston ranked with the 11th best farm. They have Whitely 9, Tucker 17 and Boukaskas 76.
They ranked Oakland @ 14 as next best in the AL West. Followed by Anaheim 16, Texas 19 and Seattle 27.

BA has Houston at 10 overall with Whitely # 10, Tucker #15, Alvarez #62 and Boukaskas #76. Oakland also has 4 prospects in BA's Top 100 while Anaheim, Texas and Seattle come in with 3/2/1 respectively in the Top 100. Here is BA's overview. https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018-houston-astros-top-10-prospects/#5OOBBjXXWV7VSOTQ.97

[Duman]

The more list you read, you start finding a consensus.  I used to do a compilation of all the list and get an average ranking for a player - that kept me from falling for someone's man crush on a certain player's tool (nttawwt)

[MusicMan]

The more list you read, you start finding a consensus.  I used to do a compilation of all the list and get an average ranking for a player - that kept me from falling for someone's man crush on a certain player's tool (nttawwt)

Do I have such a spreadsheet? Yes. Have I spent time asking how to properly weight “not listed” and “honorable mention”? Also yes.


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[VirtualBob]

Do I have such a spreadsheet? Yes. Have I spent time asking how to properly weight “not listed” and “honorable mention”? Also yes.


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And then there is the weighting of sources ... sometimes based on gut feel and sometimes based on looking at past predictions and how they fared.  Lots of math to validate a SWAG.

[Duman]

Do I have such a spreadsheet? Yes. Have I spent time asking how to properly weight “not listed” and “honorable mention”? Also yes.


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Here is mine from several years ago.  I think after the 2012 season

[Reuben]

Here is mine from several years ago.  I think after the 2012 season

The thing that jumps out at me from that spreadsheet (aside from the now-laughable consensus ranking of Singleton ahead of Correa) is how many of those guys have made it to the majors for at least a cup of coffee: all of the first 20, I think, and several others including Brett Phillips and Devenski down at #44-45. That seems like a really high percentage.

[juliogotay]

Damn, I just threw out a stack of BA's featuring the top 10 prospect in whichever division the Astros were in at the time going back almost 20 years. Pre-Luhnow most of these were total ML busts. I had forgotten about most of them but so many did not even have a cup of ML coffee.

[Reuben]

Damn, I just threw out a stack of BA's featuring the top 10 prospect in whichever division the Astros were in at the time going back almost 20 years. Pre-Luhnow most of these were total ML busts. I had forgotten about most of them but so many did not even have a cup of ML coffee.

A lot of futility in there. Remember when we were pinning our hopes on TJ Steele, Jio Mier, Ross Seaton, and Jonathan Meyer? On the other hand, Jose Altuve, Dallas Keuchel, and George Springer were pretty good pre-Luhnow prospects.

[juliogotay]

A lot of futility in there. Remember when we were pinning our hopes on TJ Steele, Jio Mier, Ross Seaton, and Jonathan Meyer? On the other hand, Jose Altuve, Dallas Keuchel, and George Springer were pretty good pre-Luhnow prospects.

I'll see you Steele, Mier and Seaton for Robert Stiehl, Mike Nannini, and Hector Gimenez.

[VirtualBob]

Just looking at the top 3 for the past 12 years is an eye-opener.

2017 - Martes, Tucker, D.Paulino
2016 - Reed, Martes, Bregman
2015 - Correa, Appel, Velasquez
2014 - Correa, Springer, Appel
2013 - Correa, Singleton, Springer
2012 - Singleton, Cosart, Springer
2011 - Lyles, DeShields, Villar
2010 - Castro, Mier, Lyles
2009 - Castro, Norris, Seaton
2008 - Towles, F.Paulino, Patton
2007 - Pence!, Patton, Albers
2006 - Hirsch, Patton, Nieve

Other notable names: Max Sapp (#9 in 2007), Colin Delome (#9 in 2008), Jon Gaston (#9 in 2009), Chia-Jen Lo (#5 in 2009), Austin Wates (#9 in 2010), Tanner Bushue (#8 in 2010), Mike Foltynewicz (#9 in 2011), Nick Tropeano (#9 in 2012), Asher Wojciechowski (#10 in 2013) and Brett Phillips (#5 in 2014).

[MusicMan]

The change from 2011 to 2012 is stark.


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[Reuben]

The change from 2011 to 2012 is stark.


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I'm sure this has been remarked on before, but it's ironic that arguably Ed Wade's biggest triumph as Astros GM - trading 1 and 1/2 seasons of Pence for Cosart, Singleton, and Domingo Santana - those 3 guys didn't actually end up providing much Major League impact for the team. Really, it's only due to Luhnow trading Cosart for Marisnick, Martes, and Moran that the Astros got any value out of the Pence trade. And of course, the Cosart deal also got them the comp pick that became Daz Cameron, who helped them trade for Verlander.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

The change from 2011 to 2012 is stark.


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True, but all three of the 2011 names are still in the league. (just not in Houston)

[Duman]

Just looking at the top 3 for the past 12 years is an eye-opener.

2017 - Martes, Tucker, D.Paulino
2016 - Reed, Martes, Bregman
2015 - Correa, Appel, Velasquez
2014 - Correa, Springer, Appel
2013 - Correa, Singleton, Springer
2012 - Singleton, Cosart, Springer
2011 - Lyles, DeShields, Villar
2010 - Castro, Mier, Lyles
2009 - Castro, Norris, Seaton
2008 - Towles, F.Paulino, Patton
2007 - Pence!, Patton, Albers
2006 - Hirsch, Patton, Nieve (

Other notable names: Max Sapp (#9 in 2007), Colin Delome (#9 in 2008), Jon Gaston (#9 in 2009), Chia-Jen Lo (#5 in 2009), Austin Wates (#9 in 2010), Tanner Bushue (#8 in 2010), Mike Foltynewicz (#9 in 2011), Nick Tropeano (#9 in 2012), Asher Wojciechowski (#10 in 2013) and Brett Phillips (#5 in 2014).

My theme looking at this list is 2 out of 3 ain't bad.  It is rare, even when you have a talent rich system to have all your prospects hit.  If you get 2 out of your top 3 to be every day players, that is success.  3 out of three in the majors is good too.  But what makes a great team is 2 out of 3 becoming stars (see 13 & 14).

[juliogotay]

My theme looking at this list is 2 out of 3 ain't bad.  It is rare, even when you have a talent rich system to have all your prospects hit.  If you get 2 out of your top 3 to be every day players, that is success.  3 out of three in the majors is good too.  But what makes a great team is 2 out of 3 becoming stars (see 13 & 14).

OK, but consider that the 2 in 2013 and 2014 were the same two guys. Not like new talent working itself into the top of the heap.

[roadrunner]

Crazy how AJ Reed just doesn't even feel like he's on the radar anymore.

[juliogotay]

Crazy how AJ Reed just doesn't even feel like he's on the radar anymore.

Reed could be a late-bloomer that finally gets it together. The fact that he doesn't seem to be motivated enough to get his body in better shape though doesn't encourage me.

[Lefty]

Wade got a bum rap with a lot of the fanbase, but that '06 to Springer prospect list is ugly.

[MusicMan]

Wade got a bum rap with a lot of the fanbase, but that '06 to Springer prospect list is ugly.

Wade was dealt a horrible hand. I’m not certain how well he played it, but he certainly wasn’t the problem that Purpura and Drayton were.


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[juliogotay]

Reed could be a late-bloomer that finally gets it together. The fact that he doesn't seem to be motivated enough to get his body in better shape though doesn't encourage me.

Speak of the Devil. Luhnow says Reed showed up in good shape.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Speak of the Devil. Luhnow says Reed showed up in good shape.

Spherical?

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Spherical?

He's been on an Ovaltine diet?

[Duman]

Jayne has compiled the composite top prospects.  Make sure you read to the bottom and see the list from last year and what has happened to those folks. 

[VirtualBob]

Jayne has compiled the composite top prospects.  Make sure you read to the bottom and see the list from last year and what has happened to those folks.

Yes. She does a great job. A must-read site for sure.

[austro]

Has there been any sort of update on Brady Rodgers?

[mrpink]

Has there been any sort of update on Brady Rodgers?

Looks like he's throwing from flat ground. Also, he went fishing last week.

[austro]

Looks like he's throwing from flat ground. Also, he went fishing last week.

If he can cast a lure, he can pitch a baseball!

[NeilT]

Looks like he's throwing from flat ground. Also, he went fishing last week.

What did he catch?

[chuck]

What did he catch?

In what hotel did he stay?

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

In what hotel did he stay?

Probably one close to the International Game Fish Association Museum.

[juliogotay]

Probably one close to the International Game Fish Association Museum.

Holiday Inn for the win.

[Reuben]

BA released an updated Top 100 Prospects list today. Whitley, Tucker, and Alvarez all stayed in roughly the same place, but Corbin Martin vaulted from unranked up to #85.

Scouting Report: Martin was a reliever in the Texas A&M bullpen for two and a half seasons, but in his junior year he moved into the rotation. He became the team's Saturday starter and while his fastball velocity dipped a little, the command and the quality of his breaking balls improved with more work. The Astros signed Martin for $1 million as a second-round pick and used him in their tandem-starter system, something not all that unusual for Martin because of his multi-role background. Martin's 90-94 mph fastball has excellent glove-side life. He also throws an average slider that has bigger shape than most, with its break coming earlier than other sliders. His curve is a little behind the slider, and his changeup is generally below-average but it will flash above-average at times and could develop into a better weapon. Martin has a quick arm but his delivery has some effort and a high back elbow. He has the makings of four pitches and potentially average to above control, so there's no reason to not let him continue starting.

link