Author Topic: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan  (Read 4987 times)

BlownRanger

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Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« on: November 03, 2017, 10:51:15 am »
https://sports.yahoo.com/houston-astros-went-great-legendary-won-first-world-series-110037559.html  (courtesy of Astros County)

Among the many interesting tidbits:  The insinuation that Hinch purposely got kicked out of the Aug 31 game in order to lobby Luhnow on the Verlander trade.

Scary quote from Luhnow on the trade:  "I was comfortable with it not happening".
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Bench

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2017, 11:05:46 am »
Great article.  Interesting tidbit about how the Astros agree to indemnify Hinch for the fines associates with up to two ejections each season. 
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subnuclear

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2017, 11:06:03 am »
It's nice to have an owner and front office that gives a crap about the medical side of things. Getting Keuchel and McCullers and Correa and Springer back for the playoffs had a huge impact and a lot of teams would have screwed that up.

homer

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2017, 11:20:04 am »

Scary quote from Luhnow on the trade:  "I was comfortable with it not happening".


We already knew this, though some refuse to believe it.
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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2017, 11:24:05 am »
Scary quote from Luhnow on the trade:  "I was comfortable with it not happening".

They won a lot of games without him.  But I think this proved to Luhnow that the regular season isn't the postseason.
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Jacksonian

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2017, 11:24:55 am »
It's nice to have an owner and front office that gives a crap about the medical side of things.

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HudsonHawk

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2017, 11:27:56 am »
Brady Aiken hates you.

It's amusing to look back now at all the gnashing of teeth over the Aiken non-signing, and then realize the player they got instead is Alex Bregman. 
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

doyce7

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2017, 11:29:49 am »
It's amusing to look back now at all the gnashing of teeth over the Aiken non-signing, and then realize the player they got instead is Alex Bregman.
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BlownRanger

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2017, 11:43:59 am »
It's amusing to look back now at all the gnashing of teeth over the Aiken non-signing, and then realize the player they got instead is Alex Bregman.

It's also scary to recall that the Astros upped their offer to Aiken at the last minute.  Thank god it wasn't accepted.
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Jacksonian

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2017, 01:01:02 pm »
It's amusing to look back now at all the gnashing of teeth over the Aiken non-signing, and then realize the player they got instead is Alex Bregman.

Knee-jerk reactionism makes us look foolish.

Not only did they get Bregman, but they were vindicated with Aiken's subsequent injury and Tommy John surgery.
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JimR

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2017, 01:13:56 pm »
We already knew this, though some refuse to believe it.

No, that is not at all what was said here. Luhnow had to be ok with not doing the deal because until about 10:00 pm on August 31, the Tigers has said no on Velander for over a month. He though the deal was dead.
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Ebby Calvin

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2017, 01:51:00 pm »
No, that is not at all what was said here. Luhnow had to be ok with not doing the deal because until about 10:00 pm on August 31, the Tigers has said no on Velander for over a month. He though the deal was dead.

Lunhow goes to my church and we had an organized outing before an Astros game at MMPUS with him right after July 31.  Lots of people in a conference room with him talking on various topics for about 30 minutes.
At the end he took questions and said - please no questions about the Aug 31 deadline.  We're not getting Verlander.
I realize he wouldn't have told us either way, but it sure seemed like he was resigned to not getting him.
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juliogotay

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2017, 11:14:42 am »
This season would make a Michael Lewis follow-up to Moneyball.

JJxvi

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2017, 04:03:42 pm »
It's amusing to look back now at all the gnashing of teeth over the Aiken non-signing, and then realize the player they got instead is Alex Bregman.

The Astros 2014 draft is pretty insane already. The next 4 picks in that draft all have made the majors (Derek Fisher, AJ Reed,  JD Davis, Daniel Mengden) plus ending up with the #2 pick in 2015 out of it (Bregman).

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2017, 01:14:06 am »
Lunhow goes to my church and we had an organized outing before an Astros game at MMPUS with him right after July 31.  Lots of people in a conference room with him talking on various topics for about 30 minutes.
At the end he took questions and said - please no questions about the Aug 31 deadline.  We're not getting Verlander.
I realize he wouldn't have told us either way, but it sure seemed like he was resigned to not getting him.

Interesting. Do we know which team re-ignited the talks?

Navin R Johnson

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2017, 02:22:53 am »
Which jives with exactly what I said on Aug 1, Luhnow didn't want to give up prospects for Verlander.  He was overridden by some folks above him.  I had this reaffirmed again this evening.   It upsets some people to hear that.   Luhnow has been an amazing GM, I hope he is the Astros GM for 20 more years but without the right people pushing the buttons, Verlander isn't an Astros. 
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subnuclear

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #16 on: November 11, 2017, 05:13:59 am »
Who does that upset?  Who thought Verlander was going to be better than 1998 Randy Johnson? 

JimR

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #17 on: November 11, 2017, 07:22:09 am »
Which jives with exactly what I said on Aug 1, Luhnow didn't want to give up prospects for Verlander.  He was overridden by some folks above him.  I had this reaffirmed again this evening.   It upsets some people to hear that.   Luhnow has been an amazing GM, I hope he is the Astros GM for 20 more years but without the right people pushing the buttons, Verlander isn't an Astros.

I am not going to argue with you or your sources, and Luhnow’s reluctance to trade prospects he considers elite is well-documented. I also know, though, from my excellent source in MLB Luhnow rubs some people in the industry the wrong way, and many take great pleasure in criticisizing him and in trying to make him look bad to others in baseball. He is portrayed as a pedantic intellectual nerd who relies too much on analytics and not the good old boy most longtime MLB types are. I heard my friend constantly belittle his accomplishments up until this year, even after the 2015 playoff run.

I do believe Luhnow had an untouchable list in talking to the Tigers in July. No doubt the pitcher (Perez?) was on it. There also is no doubt from all the many articles I have read the Tigers said no to trading JV at the initial trade deadline and well into August. It also is well-documented the Tigers did not finally decide to tear it down and rebuild until late August when they traded Upton to LAA.

Even your sources may agree, unless they are in my friend’s camp and do not like Luhnow, he was talking with the Tigers about JV for quite some time. Most baseball writers say the Tigers said no consistently to trading their icon face of the franchise. I do not doubt Luhnow said no to Perez (if that is his name) all along. Perhaps you read the recent story about Hinch’s getting ejected in the first inning deliberately on Aug. 31 so he could lobby Luhnow to get Verlander. Luhnow said he’d try, but by late deadline night, the Tigers still were saying no. Again, and I have no personal knowledge, by all accounts the Tigers got the ball rolling a couple of hours from the deadline when Avila called Luhnow to say “ok, we’ll trade him,” and they agreed on the prospects almost immediately.

So two things happened: the Tigers decided to let their icon go, and Luhnow decided to include the high end pitcher in the deal. Whether the impetus came from Crane or Hinch or both or whether Luhnow decided on his own Verlander was an important piece makes no real difference to me. I assume baseball decisions are a team effort involving the GM/front office, the manager, and the owner, and Crane should have the last word on money issues. Luhnow has traded well-regarded prospects in the past to get Gomez and Giles. What does bother me, because I hear it constantly from my friend, is the narrative which goes “Luhnow should get no credit for____. He was not going to do it and had to be directed to make the move.” Fill in the blank with the action or decision at issue. The purpose of the narrative is to belittle and to discredit the man and his accomplishments because the speaker dislikes him.

So, Navin, this is why I am skeptical of the narrative. If Luhnow was reluctant to trade Perez, so what? Some of our fellow posters here at least mildly criticized the deal because of losing him. Luhnow made the deal, gave up the prospects, and look what happened. The only reason I can see to belittle his role in the decision is your sources share my friend’s view of Luhnow. If Luhnow thought the package was too much to give for a 35-year old pitcher who struggled in the first have, again, so what? Go back and read the comments here in July and August about acquiring JV. The consensus was a resounding NO!

I am not questioning the substance of what your sources said. Without knowing who they are or their relationship to and opinion of Luhnow, however, I am skeptical of their “He had to be ordered to do it” narrative for the reasons stated above. I hear the same stuff every spring when I spend 10 days at ST with my MLB scout friend.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2017, 09:09:32 am by JimR »
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juliogotay

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #18 on: November 11, 2017, 08:31:00 am »
Good summation, Jim. Franklin Perez was the pitcher in the deal going north. I believe I was one of the folks here that didn't think Verlander was the answer back in July or so. And yet I was ecstatic as hell when the deal was done. I think part of my change-of-heart was that I thought the "give-up" for JV was reasonable if not underwhelming as none of Tucker, Whitley, Martes were included.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2017, 08:37:42 am by juliogotay »

Navin R Johnson

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #19 on: November 11, 2017, 10:48:27 am »
So two things happened: the Tigers decided to let their icon go, and Luhnow decided to include the high end pitcher in the deal. Whether the impetus came from Crane or Hinch or both or whether Luhnow decided on his own Verlander was an important piece makes no real difference to me.


Well that is really it.   Jeff how made up his mind that what the Tigers wanted for JV, was more than he was willing to part with.   Im sure his group had numbers to back up, giving up XYZ for JV and the EFV didn't add up.   Sometimes you have to look past the numbers, which is why folks called him and directed him to get a deal done.

You were decidedly (& clearly correct) in the go get Verlander camp for a while.  I was more so in the Luhnow camp of not giving away the farm.   Of course I thought the Tigers were asking for Whitley & Tucker.    The deal they ended up making was an absolute no-brainer .
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juliogotay

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #20 on: November 11, 2017, 12:05:27 pm »
Well that is really it.   Jeff how made up his mind that what the Tigers wanted for JV, was more than he was willing to part with.   Im sure his group had numbers to back up, giving up XYZ for JV and the EFV didn't add up.   Sometimes you have to look past the numbers, which is why folks called him and directed him to get a deal done.

You were decidedly (& clearly correct) in the go get Verlander camp for a while.  I was more so in the Luhnow camp of not giving away the farm.   Of course I thought the Tigers were asking for Whitley & Tucker.    The deal they ended up making was an absolute no-brainer .

When Luhnow spoke of the deal right after it was consummated he talked about the "closeness" of getting it down and he seemed almost non-plussed by that and I thought that a little odd. But I'm probably reading something into it that is not there. When my wife wanted to know why I was so excited about the deal I said JV was exactly what this team needed. I equated him to taking the mound to John Wayne with a badge.

JimR

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #21 on: November 11, 2017, 01:45:06 pm »
Well that is really it.   Jeff how made up his mind that what the Tigers wanted for JV, was more than he was willing to part with.   Im sure his group had numbers to back up, giving up XYZ for JV and the EFV didn't add up.   Sometimes you have to look past the numbers, which is why folks called him and directed him to get a deal done.

You were decidedly (& clearly correct) in the go get Verlander camp for a while.  I was more so in the Luhnow camp of not giving away the farm.   Of course I thought the Tigers were asking for Whitley & Tucker.    The deal they ended up making was an absolute no-brainer .

The word “directed” is what bothers me. The only person (I think) with authority to order a trade is Crane. I do not think anyone on the business side has that authority. I have read Hinch lobbied for the deal and Crane told Luhnow the money did not matter. Maybe Crane also said “If Detroit will trade him, do the deal. Give up as little as you can, but get it done.” I do not think anyone but Crane could “direct” the GM to make a trade.
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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #22 on: November 11, 2017, 01:55:00 pm »
The word “directed” is what bothers me. The only person (I think) with authority to order a trade is Crane. I do not think anyone on the business side has that authority. I have read Hinch lobbied for the deal and Crane told Luhnow the money did not matter. Maybe Crane also said “If Detroit will trade him, do the deal. Give up as little as you can, but get it done.” I do not think anyone but Crane could “direct” the GM to make a trade.

I do not know but I have always assumed that the information that Navin's (impeccable) source shared came straight from Crane because, as you say, Crane is the only person within the organization that can direct the general manager to do something. And I have always wondered whether Crane was telling an intransigent Luhnow to quit dicking around over prospects and get a doable deal done or if there was something a little more, I don't know, self-serving in Crane's version of events. For example, I could well imagine that after lots and lots of back and forth Luhnow finally had a deal more or less in place and Crane calls and says Do it! which of course Luhnow was going to do but at the end of the day in Crane's mind he was the motivating factor.

And my wondering about that could just be what's left of a crippling Drayton hangover.
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JimR

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #23 on: November 11, 2017, 02:02:26 pm »
I do not know but I have always assumed that the information that Navin's (impeccable) source shared came straight from Crane because, as you say, Crane is the only person within the organization that can direct the general manager to do something. And I have always wondered whether Crane was telling an intransigent Luhnow to quit dicking around over prospects and get a doable deal done or if there was something a little more, I don't know, self-serving in Crane's version of events. For example, I could well imagine that after lots and lots of back and forth Luhnow finally had a deal more or less in place and Crane calls and says Do it! which of course Luhnow was going to do but at the end of the day in Crane's mind he was the motivating factor.

And my wondering about that could just be what's left of a crippling Drayton hangover.

Dunno. You’ll have to ask Navin who his source is, but I am reasonably certain no one but Crane could direct a deal.
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chuck

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #24 on: November 11, 2017, 02:37:25 pm »
Dunno. You’ll have to ask Navin who his source is, but I am reasonably certain no one but Crane could direct a deal.

I know who his source is, dude. What I'm interested in is whether Crane actually had to tell Luhnow to do the deal otherwise the deal that happened would not have happened or whether Crane's involvement is a bit of revisionist history in order to hog some of the credit. I don't really care one way or the other, I'm just curious.
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JimR

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #25 on: November 11, 2017, 02:38:50 pm »
I know who his source is, dude. What I'm interested in is whether Crane actually had to tell Luhnow to do the deal otherwise the deal that happened would not have happened or whether Crane's involvement is a bit of revisionist history in order to hog some of the credit. I don't really care one way or the other, I'm just curious.

I do not know. I have never read anything quoting Crane hogging the glory.

ETA: too much intrigue for me. I think big deals should be teamwork between the owner, front office, and dugout, and if Luhnow listened to Hinch and Crane imploring him to do a deal his numbers guys said no on, good for him.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2017, 02:42:18 pm by JimR »
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chuck

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #26 on: November 11, 2017, 03:26:06 pm »
I do not know. I have never read anything quoting Crane hogging the glory.

Crane's comment, if it indeed was Crane, was said privately and not meant for public consumption. That leads me to believe that Luhnow was resisting a deal and that Crane felt like he needed to give him a directive. But obviously I have seen other Astros owners try to take credit for everything positive that ever happens to the team so I do possess that unfortunate reflex.
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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #27 on: November 11, 2017, 06:13:19 pm »
This is from a Detroit Free Press article on Aug. 31, speculating that Verlander wouldn’t be traded til the off-season. Of relevance- “A couple names that have piqued the Tigers’ interest are young righty Forrest Whitley, who is thought to be untouchable, and another young righty, Franklin Perez.
The Astros have shown a willingness to complete a deal with Perez as the centerpiece, but the Tigers – rightly – want more in return.”

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #28 on: November 11, 2017, 07:21:12 pm »
There was also Andyzipp's source around mid-August saying they had the made the Tigers an offer, Tigers said no, but they thought Detroit would come around because the offer was a good one. I'm curious if Zipp can share anything on that now, what the offer was at the time, and the idea that Luhnow was "overridden" by "people above him."
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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #29 on: November 11, 2017, 07:32:52 pm »
This account makes it seem that the discussions for the last several weeks prior to the trade centered around money in addition to personnel, which is ultimately Crane's call.  I couldn't find it but I'm sure I read somewhere that Crane was more gung-ho and encouraging Luhnow while Luhnow was not as enthusiastic, but I don't see why that particularly matters:

According to people familiar with the negotiations but not authorized to speak publicly, the Astros earlier in August offered to pay $18 million annually of the $28 million Verlander will make in 2018 and 2019. That was $2 million below Detroit's asking price.

The Astros later conceded to paying $19 million per year. When on Aug. 31 Luhnow and Avila agreed to the prospect package the Astros would send the Tigers - highly touted 19-year-old righthander Franklin Perez, outfielder Daz Cameron and catcher Jake Rogers - Astros owner Jim Crane gave the go-ahead for the final $1 million needed to meet the Tigers' ask.
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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #30 on: November 11, 2017, 07:39:37 pm »
Here's Crane's description which is also focused on the money:

Crane said the acquisition of Verlander, who according to reports will receive $40 million of his $56 million in salary over the next two years from the Astros, "is a big number."
"We did get some concessions, but we think we can keep it within our budget and stay focused and be all right," Crane said. "It is a lot of money."
Crane said he received a call from general manager Jeff Luhnow at about 4:30 p.m. Thursday with word that the trade could happen.
"He and I agreed on the players and it came down to a financial number (in having the Tigers pay some of Verlander's salary), he said. "We leaned in on that, got that done, and it really came down to the wire. We were happy to get it done."
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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #31 on: November 12, 2017, 04:53:08 pm »
I am not going to argue with you or your sources, and Luhnow’s reluctance to trade prospects he considers elite is well-documented. I also know, though, from my excellent source in MLB Luhnow rubs some people in the industry the wrong way, and many take great pleasure in criticisizing him and in trying to make him look bad to others in baseball. He is portrayed as a pedantic intellectual nerd who relies too much on analytics and not the good old boy most longtime MLB types are. I heard my friend constantly belittle his accomplishments up until this year, even after the 2015 playoff run.

I do believe Luhnow had an untouchable list in talking to the Tigers in July. No doubt the pitcher (Perez?) was on it. There also is no doubt from all the many articles I have read the Tigers said no to trading JV at the initial trade deadline and well into August. It also is well-documented the Tigers did not finally decide to tear it down and rebuild until late August when they traded Upton to LAA.

Even your sources may agree, unless they are in my friend’s camp and do not like Luhnow, he was talking with the Tigers about JV for quite some time. Most baseball writers say the Tigers said no consistently to trading their icon face of the franchise. I do not doubt Luhnow said no to Perez (if that is his name) all along. Perhaps you read the recent story about Hinch’s getting ejected in the first inning deliberately on Aug. 31 so he could lobby Luhnow to get Verlander. Luhnow said he’d try, but by late deadline night, the Tigers still were saying no. Again, and I have no personal knowledge, by all accounts the Tigers got the ball rolling a couple of hours from the deadline when Avila called Luhnow to say “ok, we’ll trade him,” and they agreed on the prospects almost immediately.

So two things happened: the Tigers decided to let their icon go, and Luhnow decided to include the high end pitcher in the deal. Whether the impetus came from Crane or Hinch or both or whether Luhnow decided on his own Verlander was an important piece makes no real difference to me. I assume baseball decisions are a team effort involving the GM/front office, the manager, and the owner, and Crane should have the last word on money issues. Luhnow has traded well-regarded prospects in the past to get Gomez and Giles. What does bother me, because I hear it constantly from my friend, is the narrative which goes “Luhnow should get no credit for____. He was not going to do it and had to be directed to make the move.” Fill in the blank with the action or decision at issue. The purpose of the narrative is to belittle and to discredit the man and his accomplishments because the speaker dislikes him.

So, Navin, this is why I am skeptical of the narrative. If Luhnow was reluctant to trade Perez, so what? Some of our fellow posters here at least mildly criticized the deal because of losing him. Luhnow made the deal, gave up the prospects, and look what happened. The only reason I can see to belittle his role in the decision is your sources share my friend’s view of Luhnow. If Luhnow thought the package was too much to give for a 35-year old pitcher who struggled in the first have, again, so what? Go back and read the comments here in July and August about acquiring JV. The consensus was a resounding NO!

I am not questioning the substance of what your sources said. Without knowing who they are or their relationship to and opinion of Luhnow, however, I am skeptical of their “He had to be ordered to do it” narrative for the reasons stated above. I hear the same stuff every spring when I spend 10 days at ST with my MLB scout friend.

Just to add a little bit to this excellent post, the ESPN The Magazine had an article just before the playoffs started that made me believe that Hinch had no part in getting Verlander.    Namely, Hinch was getting texts from Luhnow about the whole process that he described as "yes, no, yes, no, yes, no, YES!".   Remember this was all during the flooding and when the team was playing games in Florida and coming home to destruction everywhere,   

JJxvi

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Re: Excellent Column from Jeff Passan
« Reply #32 on: November 13, 2017, 10:27:42 am »
People hear what they want to hear and if they want to hear bad things about someone they will read it into anything.  Jeff Luhnow is not normally the dictator of the Houston Astros.  He's got guys he's hired  and previous regimes have hired to tell him what to do and I'm sure they dont all agree.  Acting like the entire organization marches to Jeff Luhnow's whims unless he is "ordered" to do something else is ludicrous.  It's a team game, even outside the white lines, and it's clear that team made the right decisions in the end, and Luhnow is a big part of that.

Even if Luhnow really didn't want to do the deal, the process still has value.  A deal for a  player like Justin Verlander can be seen as such a slam dunk that somebody needs to be holding the brakes on the bus.   It's part of the reason he's hired all those information decision guys.  If 30 team employees are all in lockstep screaming "oh my God yes, we have to get Justin Verlander, it'd be so amazing" then thats how you end up making a deal that looks more like Tucker and Whitley for Verlander rather than the one we actually made.