Author Topic: Wild Card Race  (Read 10714 times)

toddthebod

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Wild Card Race
« on: September 19, 2017, 11:06:12 pm »
I have given up on the Yankmees not winning one of the wild cards.  The question is the second wild card.  I really don't want the Angels to make the playoffs.  I can just see Poo Holes killing the Astros if we faced him.  Not to mention Trout and Phillips who had 40 doubles against the Astros last week.  And I think the Astros match up well against the Twins.  On the other hand, I want the Astros to reclaim the top spot in the AL so the Angels beating the Indians would be a good thing.  I hate all of these permutations. 
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MusicMan

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2017, 09:18:10 am »
I don't care who plays in the WC, although I agree getting the Twins would be ideal. Getting into that 1 slot is crucial to avoid facing Sale twice and letting the Indians and Red Sox beat up on each other.


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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2017, 09:44:23 am »
I don't care who plays in the WC, although I agree getting the Twins would be ideal. Getting into that 1 slot is crucial to avoid facing Sale twice and letting the Indians and Red Sox beat up on each other.


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This would be nice, but when a team wins 26 out of 27 (or something like that)....

We cannot afford to lose another game, and the surreal Oakland series hurt terribly.
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BlownRanger

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2017, 09:48:24 am »
I don't care who plays in the WC, although I agree getting the Twins would be ideal. Getting into that 1 slot is crucial to avoid facing Sale twice and letting the Indians and Red Sox beat up on each other.


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Not only do you get Sale twice, you get another bad-ass lefty in Pomeranz.  That Fenway series to end the season could be fascinating.

That being said, the Astros should be confident, regardless of the opponent.
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ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2017, 10:43:34 am »
Just putting this out there, with all due respect to the BBGs.

Houston's Magic Numbers to clinch home field advantage against the following team
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Any AL Wild Card winning team ... CLINCHED***
Rockies -- 1*
Cubs -- 4*
D-Backs -- 5*
Red Sox -- 7**
Nationals -- 12**
Indians -- 14**
Dodgers -- 15*

*Takes into account that the Astros win tie breakers due to better divisional record
**Takes into account Astros would lose tie breakers due to H2H record, so this is the Magic Number to finish a game ahead
***Already Clinched since Wild Card teams can't have home field over an intraleague division champ. i.e. a 95 win D-Backs team would start the NLCS on the road at a 90-win Cubs team

It's crazy that the Astros Magic Numbers against the Indians and Dodgers have gotten so close all of a sudden.   
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 01:22:22 pm by ValpoCory »

das

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2017, 12:03:02 pm »
It's crazy that the Astros Magic Numbers against the Indians and Dodgers have gotten so close all of a sudden.

14-5 will do that for you. The potential what-if's from that crazy Oakland series are mind boggling.
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TerryPuhl21

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Wild Card Race
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2017, 12:28:36 pm »
I think the Twins will eventually wrap up that second wild card. Angels could catch or get ahead of them by a game or two by weeks end but 7 of the Twins last 10 games are against Detroit. I think Minny goes 6-5 over their final 11 putting them at 84 wins. That means the Angels would have to go 8-4 over their final 12 just to catch them. I guess it is possible, but I think unlikely that happens. If they loose another game in this Indians series, and let's say they drop 2 of 3 against us, then they basically have to win out if the Twins can go .500 the rest of the way.


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« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 12:33:56 pm by TerryPuhl21 »

JimR

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2017, 06:51:36 pm »
14-5 will do that for you. The potential what-if's from that crazy Oakland series are mind boggling.

Starting with if Hinch had not used Fiers and our frontline relievers had been their normal selves, wewould have done no worse than split.
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2017, 10:25:35 am »
Houston's Magic Numbers to clinch home field advantage against each team (11 games left)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Any AL Wild Card winning team -- CLINCHED
Any NL 2nd Wild Card team -- CLINCHED
Cubs -- 2
D-Backs -- 4
Red Sox -- 6
Nationals -- 11
Dodgers -- 13
Indians -- 13

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2017, 10:25:57 am »
Astros Winningest Seasons
-------------------------------------------
1. 1998 -- 102 wins
2. 1999 -- 97 wins
3. 1986 -- 96 wins
4t. 2017 -- 93 wins (with 11 games left to play)
4t. 2001 -- 93 wins
4t. 1980 -- 93 wins

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2017, 11:57:26 pm »
Houston's Magic Numbers to clinch home field advantage against each team (9 games left)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Any AL Wild Card winning team -- CLINCHED
Any NL 2nd Wild Card team -- CLINCHED
Cubs -- 1
D-Backs -- 3
Red Sox -- 5
Nationals -- 8
Indians -- 11
Dodgers -- 12

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2017, 11:57:51 pm »
Astros Winningest Seasons
-------------------------------------------
1. 1998 -- 102 wins
2. 1999 -- 97 wins
3. 1986 -- 96 wins
4. 2017 -- 94 wins (with 9 games left to play)

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2017, 12:37:19 am »
Since the start of play on September 14th, here are the records of the Top 4 AL teams.

Astros -- 8-1
Red Sox -- 8-1
Yankees -- 7-2
Indians -- 7-2

Man, the AL Playoffs are going to be fun.

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2017, 12:37:43 am »
Houston's Magic Numbers to clinch home field advantage against each team (8 games left)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Any AL Wild Card winning team -- CLINCHED
Any NL 2nd Wild Card team -- CLINCHED
Cubs -- CLINCHED
D-Backs -- 1
Red Sox -- 4
Nationals -- 7
Indians -- 10
Dodgers -- 10

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2017, 12:38:05 am »
Chance to tie the Mike Scott-led 1986 Astros on Sunday night.

Astros Winningest Seasons
-------------------------------------------
1. 1998 -- 102 wins
2. 1999 -- 97 wins
3. 1986 -- 96 wins
4. 2017 -- 95 wins (with 8 games left to play)

Navin R Johnson

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2017, 01:08:04 pm »
If I am reading the standings correctly, If the Astros win tonight they would eliminate the Rangers from the wildcard race.   That would be enjoyable.
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doyce7

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2017, 01:34:00 pm »
If I am reading the standings correctly, If the Astros win tonight they would eliminate the Rangers from the wildcard race.   That would be enjoyable.
The rangers elimination number is at 2 and the twins are off today. So an Astros win wouldn't "eliminate" the rangers but it would put them on deaths doorstep.

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Navin R Johnson

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2017, 01:37:29 pm »
The Rangers lost the series to the Twins, 4-3.  So if they ended up tied at  82 wins (which is the max the Rangers could get to with a loss tonight) then the Twins would win the wildcard. 
There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2017, 01:43:00 pm »
Meanwhile in the NL, Arizona clinched the home wild card spot yesterday. Arizona beat Miami later thanks to a walk off hit by Julio Daniel (as I like to call him). The same Julio Daniel has 14 home runs in September, an Arizona record for home runs in one month. He has 27 home runs in 56 games since joining the Diamondbacks.
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MusicMan

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2017, 02:09:50 pm »
The Rangers lost the series to the Twins, 4-3.  So if they ended up tied at  82 wins (which is the max the Rangers could get to with a loss tonight) then the Twins would win the wildcard.

Nope. Head to head only factors for home field. If they end the season tied, they play one game for the wild card spot. MIN would be the home team, I believe.


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BudGirl

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2017, 02:28:39 pm »
Why don't the Astros take care of business against the Rangers and let the Twins take care of their business?  I fully expect the Astros to do their best to firm up the playoff picture in the next couple days.  Everyone knows how important these games are to the Rangers so I say, "Go kick some ass Astros!!!"
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Navin R Johnson

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2017, 02:52:09 pm »
Nope. Head to head only factors for home field. If they end the season tied, they play one game for the wild card spot. MIN would be the home team, I believe.


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That makes sense.
There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.

Bench

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2017, 05:05:36 pm »
Nope. Head to head only factors for home field. If they end the season tied, they play one game for the wild card spot. MIN would be the home team, I believe.


That's my understanding as well.
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toddthebod

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2017, 10:44:09 pm »
Why don't the Astros take care of business against the Rangers and let the Twins take care of their business?  I fully expect the Astros to do their best to firm up the playoff picture in the next couple days.  Everyone knows how important these games are to the Rangers so I say, "Go kick some ass Astros!!!"

Very little will make me happier this week than the Astros eliminating the Rangers from the playoffs.  If that happens tomorrow, I think the Astros should celebrate on the field. 
Boom!

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #24 on: September 26, 2017, 12:00:06 am »
Houston's Magic Numbers to clinch home field advantage against each team (6 games left)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Any Wild Card team in either league and the Cubs -- CLINCHED
Red Sox -- 2
Nationals -- 6
Indians -- 9
Dodgers -- 9


Huge night seeing the Astros gain a game on the Red Sox.  That means at worst, they'll only need to win 1 game in Boston.   And of course they could clinch home field in the ALDS as early as Tuesday night.

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #25 on: September 26, 2017, 12:00:29 am »
Astros Winningest Seasons
-------------------------------------------
1. 1998 -- 102 wins
2. 1999 -- 97 wins
3t. 2017 -- 96 wins (with 6 games left to play)
3t. 1986 -- 96 wins

Duke

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #26 on: September 26, 2017, 07:49:06 am »
Looks like my chance to win the race for the lid is doomed (97).   Glad to lose that one.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #27 on: September 26, 2017, 08:40:26 am »
Looks like my chance to win the race for the lid is doomed (97).   Glad to lose that one.

If the Astros win 98, then you would win.
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #28 on: September 26, 2017, 09:10:03 am »
If the Astros win 98, then you would win.

I didn't know you'd changed the rules.
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #29 on: September 26, 2017, 09:11:40 am »
I didn't know you'd changed the rules.

Proof that no one really reads my posts.

Quote
9.  Game 1 of the 2017 season will not be included in the win total (in other words, the pick is based on games 2-162.)
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #30 on: September 26, 2017, 10:00:18 am »
Proof that no one really reads my posts.

I was told there would be no math!
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #31 on: September 26, 2017, 10:02:33 am »
If the Astros win 98, then you would win.

Cool.  Thanks BG.  Not sure why I thought I had 97.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #32 on: September 26, 2017, 10:02:55 am »
Looks like my chance to win the race for the lid is doomed (97).   Glad to lose that one.

Also, I truly hope you were planning on eating frito pie for lunch today.  Hubris of the highest degree.
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JimR

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #33 on: September 26, 2017, 03:45:17 pm »
Come on, Twins!
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ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #34 on: September 26, 2017, 10:50:07 pm »
Come on, Twins!

What a night for the Astros. Astros win. Red Sox, Indians, and Nationals all lose!

Houston's Magic Numbers to clinch home field advantage against each team (5 games left)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Any Wild Card team in either league, the Cubs, and the Red Sox -- CLINCHED
Nationals -- 4
Indians -- 7
Dodgers -- 8

Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS will be at Minute Maid Park next Thursday and Friday.

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #35 on: September 26, 2017, 10:50:39 pm »
Astros Winningest Seasons
-------------------------------------------
1. 1998 -- 102 wins
2t. 2017 -- 97 wins (with 5 games left to play)
2t. 1999 -- 97 wins

Bench

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #36 on: September 27, 2017, 09:27:47 am »
What a night for the Astros. Astros win. Red Sox, Indians, and Nationals all lose!

Houston's Magic Numbers to clinch home field advantage against each team (5 games left)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nationals -- 4




The Nationals took 2 out of 3 from the Astros this season, which I assume settles the tiebreaker if they end up with the same record.  But what would be the tie-breaker between NL and AL teams with identical regular season records that face each other in the world series but did not have an interleague series?
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #37 on: September 27, 2017, 09:48:38 am »
It's the best record within each team's division.

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #38 on: September 27, 2017, 10:21:19 am »
It's the best record within each team's division.

Yep.  Houston wins that 2nd tie breaker with everyone, although the only team left for which it could apply, the Dodgers, are well in front.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #39 on: September 27, 2017, 10:24:44 am »
If the Astros keep winning over the weekend and manage to take the best record/first seed, it would be at the expense of the Sawks and could push them into the wildcard which would net the Astros nothing in the matchup except possibly missing Sale in Game 1.
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #40 on: September 27, 2017, 10:29:58 am »
And just in case you were wondering, and I know you were, a rained out and cancelled regular season game this week helps the team without the tiebreaker, since the half game difference removes the benefit of the tiebreaker.

Current Magic Numbers:
Nationals -- 4
Indians -- 7
Dodgers -- 8

So hypothetically speaking, if the Astros game this afternoon is rained out, then the Magic Numbers would drop to
Nationals -- 3
Indians -- 6
Dodgers -- 8

It's a little bit easier to think of the final day of the season.  Say the Astros lead the Indians by 1 game 101-60 (.627) vs. 100-61.  The Astros Magic Number would be 1.   Say the Indians win to move to 101-61 (.623)   The Astros would clinch with a win or a rain out.  Both would drop the Magic Number to 0. 

Same thing if the Indians-Twins series finale is rained out tomorrow ... that also benefits the Astros.   It's easier to think of the Indians-White Sox finale on Sunday.   Say that Indians game gets rained out, and they finish at 100-61.  That would make the Astros game on Sunday meaningless, as even a Sunday loss to finish at 101-61 would finish ahead of Cleveland.

So pray for rain, even though none is in the forecast.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2017, 10:33:35 am by ValpoCory »

Navin R Johnson

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #41 on: September 27, 2017, 10:43:33 am »
If the Astros keep winning over the weekend and manage to take the best record/first seed, it would be at the expense of the Sawks and could push them into the wildcard which would net the Astros nothing in the matchup except possibly missing Sale in Game 1.

That seems like a pretty good net.
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #42 on: September 27, 2017, 11:17:37 am »
That seems like a pretty good net.

Yep.  It makes facing Sale twice in a short series less likely.  I'd take that.
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #43 on: September 27, 2017, 04:29:55 pm »
Pending the outcomes of the night games ...

Houston's Magic Numbers to clinch home field advantage against each team (4 games left)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Any Wild Card team in either league, the Cubs, and the Red Sox -- CLINCHED
Nationals -- 3
Indians -- 6
Dodgers -- 7

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #44 on: September 27, 2017, 04:32:53 pm »
Astros Winningest Seasons
-------------------------------------------
1. 1998 -- 102 wins
2. 2017 -- 98 wins (with 4 games left to play)

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #45 on: September 28, 2017, 09:10:55 am »
Pending the outcomes of the night games ...

Houston's Magic Numbers to clinch home field advantage against each team (4 games left)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Any Wild Card team in either league, the Cubs, and the Red Sox -- CLINCHED
Nationals -- 3
Indians -- 6
Dodgers -- 7

the way this club plays on the road I don't even worry about that.

Cleveland's home attendance is 22nd in MLB. Dodgers #1. Houston #15 for reference.

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #46 on: September 28, 2017, 10:51:31 am »
The worst outcome for the Astros last night would be the Twins losing and Angels losing, for it essentially means 2 Indians wins (Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon).    That came to fruition, and almost all of the Twins starting lineup is taking today off.   Dozier, Mauer, Rosario, Buxton, Escobar, Giminez, Grossman.  All 7 of those guys, who are their usual starters, are benched today. 
« Last Edit: September 28, 2017, 04:20:20 pm by ValpoCory »

JimR

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #47 on: September 28, 2017, 12:04:13 pm »
The worst outcome for the Astros last night would be the Twins losing and Angels losing, for it essentially means 2 Indians wins (Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon).    That came to fruition, and almost all of the Twins starting lineup is taking today off.   Dozier, Mauer, Rosario, Buxton, Escobar, Giminez, Grossman.  All 7 of those guys who their usual starters are benched today.

That is fucking bullshit for the one seed race and is the kind of lack of integrity stuff I hate. The Indians finish with the White Sox.
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ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #48 on: September 28, 2017, 04:21:01 pm »
That is fucking bullshit for the one seed race and is the kind of lack of integrity stuff I hate. The Indians finish with the White Sox.

Yep.  And to no one's surprise, the Twins B team was no match for the Indians A team.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #49 on: September 28, 2017, 04:38:20 pm »
That is fucking bullshit for the one seed race and is the kind of lack of integrity stuff I hate. The Indians finish with the White Sox.

Meanwhile, the Astros are starting 8 regular starters (and Maybin) tonight in Boston.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #50 on: September 28, 2017, 04:52:51 pm »
Wtf, Minn.  They have Friday thru Sunday to kick their heels up.

 The twins reward for this *may* be that they get to face the Indians if they get past the yankmees in the wc game.


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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #51 on: September 28, 2017, 05:00:12 pm »
Wtf, Minn.  They have Friday thru Sunday to kick their heels up.

 The twins reward for this *may* be that they get to face the Indians if they get past the yankmees in the wc game.
To be fair, if I'm a twins fan, I want no part of the Astros after what happened earlier this year.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #52 on: September 28, 2017, 05:07:29 pm »
To be fair, if I'm a twins fan, I want no part of the Astros after what happened earlier this year.

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Geez.  You score 11 runs in an inning and suddenly the other team doesn't way to play you anymore.

I do wonder if they have a preference.  But I suspect it was simply a reward thing for the 2nd wc lockup.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #53 on: September 28, 2017, 05:10:37 pm »
I do wonder if they have a preference.  But I suspect it was simply a reward thing for the 2nd wc lockup.

I doubt they care at all.  Just giving their guys the day off on a noon game the day after they started celebrating at midnight. 
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doyce7

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #54 on: September 28, 2017, 05:11:44 pm »
Geez.  You score 11 runs in an inning and suddenly the other team doesn't way to play you anymore.

I do wonder if they have a preference.  But I suspect it was simply a reward thing for the 2nd wc lockup.
Wasn't just that inning though, Astros scored like 40+ runs in 3 games. But as I said if I was a twins "fan" not player or management personnel. If I was a player I wouldn't care who I played, as a coach or manangement person I would slightly rather play the Indians because they know them better. As you say, I doubt this played any factor in who played today.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #55 on: September 28, 2017, 07:50:58 pm »
That is fucking bullshit for the one seed race and is the kind of lack of integrity stuff I hate. The Indians finish with the White Sox.

I sort of agree, but the real answer is "don't put yourself in this position by giving away games to the likes of the A's and White Sox."
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #56 on: September 28, 2017, 09:58:40 pm »
I sort of agree, but the real answer is "don't put yourself in this position by giving away games to the likes of the A's and White Sox."

Those 2 sweeps definitely stand out in the turd pile of the second half.

The Oakland one especially.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #57 on: September 28, 2017, 11:30:12 pm »
Houston's Magic Numbers to clinch home field advantage against each team (3 games left)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Any Wild Card team in either league, the Cubs, and the Red Sox -- CLINCHED
Nationals -- 1
Indians -- 5
Dodgers -- 6

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #58 on: September 28, 2017, 11:38:27 pm »
With tonight's 12-2 Astros win ...

Houston's run differential moved up to +197, good for 2nd best in the league (CLE +244)
Houston's total runs scored moved up to 886, good for 2nd most in team history. (2000, 938)

I don't know what's more surprising ... how good that 2000 offense was, or that they had a negative run differential on the season.   That year solidified Minute Maid Park's reputation as a band box in most commentators minds, despite the stadium being a statistically neutral to slightly pitcher-friendly park since.  And as a slight statistical anomaly ... back to back seasons as being the most pitcher friendly ballpark in MLB.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #59 on: September 28, 2017, 11:49:54 pm »
I sort of agree, but the real answer is "don't put yourself in this position by giving away games to the likes of the A's and White Sox."

I don't have anything against the Twins for doing what they're doing. They manage their team, the Astros manage theirs. Don't want to have to rely on someone else...don't get swept by the worst team in the league down the stretch.
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #60 on: September 29, 2017, 12:06:16 am »
I don't have anything against the Twins for doing what they're doing. They manage their team, the Astros manage theirs. Don't want to have to rely on someone else...don't get swept by the worst team in the league down the stretch.

While it's frustrating to see a crap lineup face Cleveland when you are rooting for the Indians to lose, I agree.  I also don't have anything against it.  It was the right move, and it was sure to happen once the Angels lost to the White Sox. 

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #61 on: September 29, 2017, 07:02:19 am »
What the Astros did in any other game before this has nothing to do with the lineup the Twins put on the field yesterday. The fans who attended watched a forfeit. Many times in many years managers have commented on their responsibilities to the integrity of the pennant races. The Twins’ lineup, hangovers or not, ignored this principle. Many of you do not believe in it. I do.
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #62 on: September 29, 2017, 08:26:09 am »
What the Astros did in any other game before this has nothing to do with the lineup the Twins put on the field yesterday. The fans who attended watched a forfeit. Many times in many years managers have commented on their responsibilities to the integrity of the pennant races. The Twins’ lineup, hangovers or not, ignored this principle. Many of you do not believe in it. I do.

Oh please. Get off your high horse. No one doesn't believe in the "integrity of the pennant races". The Twins don't owe the Astros anything, just like the Astros don't owe the Yankees anything.

 I'm pretty sure this is exactly what you tell me.
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #63 on: September 29, 2017, 09:30:20 am »
Oh please. Get off your high horse. No one doesn't believe in the "integrity of the pennant races". The Twins don't owe the Astros anything, just like the Astros don't owe the Yankees anything.

 I'm pretty sure this is exactly what you tell me.

High horse, eh? I think they owe the races, not teams, and I think integrity is an issue. That may have gone out of style. You don’t, and that’s fine. If they had been playing the White Sox, effectively forfeiting the game would not hurt anyone. Should the Astros pitch Fiers today with a AAA lineup and hand the Division to Boston or should they play a varsity lineup and try to win? What should the Yankees expect from Houston today?  I understand the Astros have a selfish reason to win, and the Twins did not. That’s part of my point.

My views about an obligation to the game and to competition are sincerely held, Matt. I am sure yours are also. Idealism perhaps, but as everyone knows, I am old.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #64 on: September 29, 2017, 09:34:00 am »
With tonight's 12-2 Astros win ...

Houston's run differential moved up to +197, good for 2nd best in the league (CLE +244)
Houston's total runs scored moved up to 886, good for 2nd most in team history. (2000, 938)

I don't know what's more surprising ... how good that 2000 offense was, or that they had a negative run differential on the season.   That year solidified Minute Maid Park's reputation as a band box in most commentators minds, despite the stadium being a statistically neutral to slightly pitcher-friendly park since.  And as a slight statistical anomaly ... back to back seasons as being the most pitcher friendly ballpark in MLB.



back to back seasons as being the most pitcher friendly ballpark in MLB.

Astonishing. Never would I have guessed this.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #65 on: September 29, 2017, 09:39:27 am »
back to back seasons as being the most pitcher friendly ballpark in MLB.

Astonishing. Never would I have guessed this.

It baffles me that the Astros can have far and away the most runs scored in the majors while playing half of their games in "the most pitcher friendly ballpark."  Of course, there's a good chance I have no idea what park factor really means.   Maybe it's just a factor of the Astros' historic road offense? 
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #66 on: September 29, 2017, 10:00:51 am »
MMP 2017                                                Road

Astros             Opponents               Astros                Opponents
  395      Runs     327                          491      Runs         362

  115       HRs      101                          121       HRs            90

  .812     OPS      .688                         .841      OPS           .757




Navin R Johnson

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #67 on: September 29, 2017, 10:15:07 am »
MMP 2017                                                Road

Astros             Opponents               Astros                Opponents
  395      Runs     327                          491      Runs         362

  115       HRs      101                          121       HRs            90

  .812     OPS      .688                         .841      OPS           .757






Any thoughts on the reason?   While it is easier to hit a homer to LF, if you don't hit it out you are less likely to get an extra base hit, and with the LF playing closer, less likely to get a hit to LF in general?

Does the shifting that the Astros do have an effect as well?
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #68 on: September 29, 2017, 10:23:56 am »
It's all because of Altuve's weird home-road splits. 
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #69 on: September 29, 2017, 10:29:59 am »

Any thoughts on the reason?   While it is easier to hit a homer to LF, if you don't hit it out you are less likely to get an extra base hit, and with the LF playing closer, less likely to get a hit to LF in general?

Does the shifting that the Astros do have an effect as well?

My WAG is climate conditions like high humidity and the closed roof (lack of "jet stream"). I wonder what the numbers look like roof closed vs. open?
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #70 on: September 29, 2017, 10:54:45 am »
It baffles me that the Astros can have far and away the most runs scored in the majors while playing half of their games in "the most pitcher friendly ballpark."  Of course, there's a good chance I have no idea what park factor really means.   Maybe it's just a factor of the Astros' historic road offense?

It's partly the Astros historic road offense, but equally due to their opponents offense doing better against Astros pitching when not at Minute Maid Park.

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #71 on: September 29, 2017, 11:28:55 am »
Are you guys rooting for or against the Yankees this afternoon?

Argument for rooting for the Yankees ... increases the odds of Boston needing to mess up their desired playoff rotation. 
Argument for rooting against the Yankees ... Houston might get some of the Red Sox B teamers, slightly increasing the odds of Houston catching the Indians
Argument for who the hell cares ... Astros are beating everyone right now, so might as well destroy the Red Sox soul.  Worry about yourselves. That's it.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2017, 11:32:37 am by ValpoCory »

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #72 on: September 29, 2017, 12:00:25 pm »
Are you guys rooting for or against the Yankees this afternoon?

Argument for rooting for the Yankees ... increases the odds of Boston needing to mess up their desired playoff rotation. 
Argument for rooting against the Yankees ... Houston might get some of the Red Sox B teamers, slightly increasing the odds of Houston catching the Indians
Argument for who the hell cares ... Astros are beating everyone right now, so might as well destroy the Red Sox soul.  Worry about yourselves. That's it.

I want the Yankees to win out and Boston to loose out (of course) so they have to play a one game playoff before the wild card and burn up Sale in the process.
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Navin R Johnson

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #73 on: September 29, 2017, 12:13:26 pm »
If the Red Sox clinch, I hope they have to celebrate after losing 14-4.
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #74 on: September 29, 2017, 12:25:21 pm »
I want the Yankees to win out and Boston to loose out (of course) so they have to play a one game playoff before the wild card and burn up Sale in the process.

This right here.
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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #75 on: September 29, 2017, 06:08:37 pm »
I just want the Astros to give it their best shot and, the good Lord willing, things will work out.

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #76 on: September 29, 2017, 06:18:15 pm »
High horse, eh? I think they owe the races, not teams, and I think integrity is an issue. That may have gone out of style. You don’t, and that’s fine. If they had been playing the White Sox, effectively forfeiting the game would not hurt anyone. Should the Astros pitch Fiers today with a AAA lineup and hand the Division to Boston or should they play a varsity lineup and try to win? What should the Yankees expect from Houston today?  I understand the Astros have a selfish reason to win, and the Twins did not. That’s part of my point.

My views about an obligation to the game and to competition are sincerely held, Matt. I am sure yours are also. Idealism perhaps, but as everyone knows, I am old.

The Astros should do what's in their best interest to win the World Series. If that means resting a couple of players or not spending the top relievers in say a 14 inning game right before the ALDS, I'm fine with that. That doesn't mean I've thrown integrity out the window. I don't think Hinch's comments about "not showing too much" this series reveals some moral failing in his part.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

ValpoCory

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #77 on: September 29, 2017, 10:32:50 pm »
Tonight's Astros win clinched home field advantage for Houston in a prospective Astros-Nationals World Series.

Houston's Magic Numbers to clinch home field advantage against each team (2 games left)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Any Wild Card team in either league, the Cubs, Red Sox, and Nationals -- CLINCHED
Indians -- 4
Dodgers -- 4

Things to note ... If the Magic Number against the Dodgers falls to 2 tomorrow, that means the Rockies clinch a playoff spot tomorrow and likely won't play many starters against the Dodgers on Sunday. So it's extremely likely the Astros will finish with the over 3rd best record.

But still, it's cool that with 2 days left in the season, the Astros can still finish with the overall 1 seed.

If all 3 teams finish at 102-60, then no team clinches home field throughout the postseason. 

LA would have home field over Cleveland
Cleveland would home field over Houston
Houston would have home field on LA.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2017, 11:07:47 pm by ValpoCory »

Navin R Johnson

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Re: Wild Card Race
« Reply #78 on: September 29, 2017, 11:13:50 pm »
Fuck the Cubs.
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