Last night

[JimR]

For me, it was an eerie reminder of the 8th inning of Game 6 in the 2015 playoffs. Two lucky bloop hits, a two our walk to a .170 hitter, and a hanging slider--anything they needed, they got.

The loss did not bother me. Streaks always end. The way we lost bothered me a lot.

[BudGirl]

I'm not sure what bothered me about the loss.  I think this team is learning more from losses this year than they have in the past.  Not sure that makes sense, but they seem to gain more experience this time around.  They are a different team in so many ways than in 2015.  And, I think they start a new streak today! 

[HudsonHawk]

What bothered me most was how much they brought it upon themselves.  Walking the tying run with two out...letting the tying run score from 1B on what should have been a routine single to LF...letting what should have been an easy out to end the 9th end up the winning run....getting beat on your less than best pitches...

There's an old saying about "making" the other team beat you.  It felt last night that they "let" the other team beat them. 

[Knoxbanedoodle]

For me, it was an eerie reminder of the 8th inning of Game 6 in the 2015 playoffs. Two lucky bloop hits, a two our walk to a .170 hitter, and a hanging slider--anything they needed, they got.

The loss did not bother me. Streaks always end. The way we lost bothered me a lot.

Game 4. Ditto.

[Andyzipp]

I guess my hope is that they learn when they start relaxing, shit happens.  The focus in the field and especially at the plate was lacking last night after Beltran's homer.

Combine that with Hinch picking a spot to test Gudaun and Hoyt, and you get last night.

[HudsonHawk]

I guess my hope is that they learn when they start relaxing, shit happens.  The focus in the field and especially at the plate was lacking last night after Beltran's homer.

Combine that with Hinch picking a spot to test Gudaun and Hoyt, and you get last night.

I guess I'm not bothered by the testing of Guduan and Hoyt.  You have to do it sometime, last night was as good as any.  But Giles has to do better.  Sure the bases were loaded when he came in, and letting a runner or two score is not what gets me.  But he can't give up all three.  He *has* to be able to get an out before letting all three runs score.  The defensive alignment there irritates me too.

[Andyzipp]

I guess I'm not bothered by the testing of Guduan and Hoyt.  You have to do it sometime, last night was as good as any.  But Giles has to do better.  Sure the bases were loaded when he came in, and letting a runner or two score is not what gets me.  But he can't give up all three.  He *has* to be able to get an out before letting all three runs score.  The defensive alignment there irritates me too.

Me too on Guduan and Hoyt.  A 5 run lead in the 8th inning in June when you have a double digit lead in your division should be an ideal time to try some stuff out.

Giles is concerning.  I don't understand him avoiding his fastball last night.  Those sliders aren't effective when they aren't set up.

And shifts suck.

[Jacksonian]

I guess I'm not bothered by the testing of Guduan and Hoyt.  You have to do it sometime, last night was as good as any.  But Giles has to do better.  Sure the bases were loaded when he came in, and letting a runner or two score is not what gets me.  But he can't give up all three.  He *has* to be able to get an out before letting all three runs score.  The defensive alignment there irritates me too.

Giles has entered the game with the bases loaded 3 times this year.  He's allowed all 3 to score twice.  The other time he came on with two outs and got the batter to hit a liner right at Reddick.  Looking at his work this year, he's been his best when starting the inning in a save situation.  He's allowed 7 of 12 inherited base runners to score this year.  I'm a bit surprised the front office hasn't had Hinch stop bringing him in with runners already on rather than just start the 9th in a save situation.

[homer]

The sliders aren't effective when they don't slide.

[Navin R Johnson]

On a good note, how about that slide to score from Beltran?   Also, Garry Pettis has been superb, some of the best 3rd base arm swinging in a long time.   

[HudsonHawk]

And shifts suck.

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I'll elaborate on my point a little...It's no secret I am not a fan of the shift the way the Astros employ it.  Not that it doesn't have it's place, but I think the Astros do it too often with too many hitters and in too may circumstances.  Traditional fielding position is not random.  It's based on years and years of data and experience.  And for 140 years, the ball that Perez hit in the 9th is an out.  In fact, Giles made the pitch he wanted, got Perez to do exactly what he wanted (roll over and hit a weak ground ball to 2B), but it ended up being the winning run.  Likewise the positioning on the 3-run double in the 8th...I understand they were protecting the gaps, but they let a routine ball beat them.  It the other team beats you...if Merrifield hits one in the gap, or if Perez hits one back up the middle in the 9th, then that's them beating you.  But when you get exactly what you're hoping for, but it beats you because you've moved out of the way, it feels like you're expecting to not make a play, or expecting that Giles cannot get Perez out.  In short, it's a loser mentality to me.  That bothers me.

[Navin R Johnson]

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I'll elaborate on my point a little...It's no secret I am not a fan of the shift the way the Astros employ it.  Not that it doesn't have it's place, but I think the Astros do it too often with too many hitters and in too may circumstances.  Traditional fielding position is not random.  It's based on years and years of data and experience.  And for 140 years, the ball that Perez hit in the 9th is an out.  In fact, Giles made the pitch he wanted, got Perez to do exactly what he wanted (roll over and hit a weak ground ball to 2B), but it ended up being the winning run.  Likewise the positioning on the 3-run double in the 8th...I understand they were protecting the gaps, but they let a routine ball beat them.  It the other team beats you...if Merrifield hits one in the gap, or if Perez hits one back up the middle in the 9th, then that's them beating you.  But when you get exactly what you're hoping for, but it beats you because you've moved out of the way, it feels like you're expecting to not make a play, or expecting that Giles cannot get Perez out.  In short, it's a loser mentality to me.  That bothers me.

Im with you.   Here is Perez's spray chart.  he has hit plenty of balls where he did last night.   

http://i66.tinypic.com/287hg9h.jpg

[Andyzipp]

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I'll elaborate on my point a little...It's no secret I am not a fan of the shift the way the Astros employ it.  Not that it doesn't have it's place, but I think the Astros do it too often with too many hitters and in too may circumstances.  Traditional fielding position is not random.  It's based on years and years of data and experience.  And for 140 years, the ball that Perez hit in the 9th is an out.  In fact, Giles made the pitch he wanted, got Perez to do exactly what he wanted (roll over and hit a weak ground ball to 2B), but it ended up being the winning run.  Likewise the positioning on the 3-run double in the 8th...I understand they were protecting the gaps, but they let a routine ball beat them.  It the other team beats you...if Merrifield hits one in the gap, or if Perez hits one back up the middle in the 9th, then that's them beating you.  But when you get exactly what you're hoping for, but it beats you because you've moved out of the way, it feels like you're expecting to not make a play, or expecting that Giles cannot get Perez out.  In short, it's a loser mentality to me.  That bothers me.

Not sarcasm, and I know it's old man shouting at clouds territory, but I hate the way shifts are employed in MLB these days. 

[Jacksonian]

Im with you.   Here is Perez's spray chart.  he has hit plenty of balls where he did last night.   

http://i66.tinypic.com/287hg9h.jpg

I don't know.  It looks like he's only hit about 10 grounders toward the second baseman's traditional spot.  He's hit several dozen on the ground toward the left side.

ETA: Of course it could be that all 10 or so grounders to the right were done so against a shift.

[HudsonHawk]

I don't know.  It looks like he's only hit about 10 grounders toward the second baseman's traditional spot.  He's hit several dozen on the ground toward the left side.

ETA: Of course it could be that all 10 or so grounders to the right were done so against a shift.

Looks to me like he's hit even fewer ground balls up the middle. 

Still, not my point.  If Perez beats you, he beats you.  But don't have your guy win the matchup and still lose because you were afraid you couldn't win. 

[doyce7]

I always look at it one of two ways. You can lose and you can get beat. Last night the Astros lost. It sucks but it happens. I don't have a problem with anything hinch really did in the game. I'm ok with guduan pitching the 8th, when he faltered, bringing in Hoyt was fine as he has been really good this year. You pay your closer to get big outs so I have no problem bringing in Giles. It's just that nothing was executed, just gotta move on from it, it's a long season.

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[doyce7]

I always look at it one of two ways. You can lose and you can get beat. Last night the Astros lost. It sucks but it happens. I don't have a problem with anything hinch really did in the game. I'm ok with guduan pitching the 8th, when he faltered, bringing in Hoyt was fine as he has been really good this year. You pay your closer to get big outs so I have no problem bringing in Giles. It's just that nothing was executed, just gotta move on from it, it's a long season.

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Oh and yeah fuck the shifts

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[Jacksonian]

Looks to me like he's hit even fewer ground balls up the middle. 

Still, not my point.  If Perez beats you, he beats you.  But don't have your guy win the matchup and still lose because you were afraid you couldn't win.

I'll agree that I don't like the shift that much but doubly so with Giles since he's not one to hit spots so much as just throw.  I'll disagree that he won the matchup because Perez hit it exactly where the Astros didn't want him to.  And likely on purpose.  Seeing other at-bats of his from last night it looks an awful lot like he was trying to go the other way often.

[doyce7]

I'll agree that I don't like the shift that much but doubly so with Giles since he's not one to hit spots so much as just throw.  I'll disagree that he won the matchup because Perez hit it exactly where the Astros didn't want him to.  And likely on purpose.  Seeing other at-bats of his from last night it looks an awful lot like he was trying to go the other way often.

As a pitcher your job is to either strike a guy out or induce weak contact. He induced weak contact. That should be a win for the pitcher.

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[Jacksonian]

As a pitcher your job is to either strike a guy out or induce weak contact. He induced weak contact. That should be a win for the pitcher.

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You can't take the batter out of the equation.  2 outs.  Be a base runner.  He did exactly what he needed to do especially when the defense leaves nearly half the infield open.

[HudsonHawk]

I'll agree that I don't like the shift that much but doubly so with Giles since he's not one to hit spots so much as just throw.  I'll disagree that he won the matchup because Perez hit it exactly where the Astros didn't want him to.  And likely on purpose.  Seeing other at-bats of his from last night it looks an awful lot like he was trying to go the other way often.

Disagree.  Giles got exactly what every pitcher in the history of baseball has wanted in that situation.  Again, you're playing scared.  I don't like it. 

[HudsonHawk]

You can't take the batter out of the equation.  2 outs.  Be a base runner.  He did exactly what he needed to do especially when the defense leaves nearly half the infield open.

You don't ask pitchers to pitch to the shift.  That's completely backwards. 

[Jacksonian]

Disagree.  Giles got exactly what every pitcher in the history of baseball has wanted in that situation.  Again, you're playing scared.  I don't like it.

When a major league hitter hits a ball into a GIANT opening on the infield it's a win for the hitter when he's trying to do that.  He deliberately didn't pull it into the shift.  That's the consequence of playing scared.

[Jacksonian]

You don't ask pitchers to pitch to the shift.  That's completely backwards.

That's exactly what they're asked to do, otherwise why shift?  Which is a big reason why they hate it.

[HudsonHawk]

That's exactly what they're asked to do, otherwise why shift?  Which is a big reason why they hate it.

Right.  That's my point.  That's the wrong way to do it.

[Jacksonian]

Right.  That's my point.  That's the wrong way to do it.

On that I completely agree.

[doyce7]

That's exactly what they're asked to do, otherwise why shift?  Which is a big reason why they hate it.

If you try to pitch into the shift your essentially taking away half your options, you cant pitch like that. If you watch pitch sequence for any pitcher, they are not pitching into the shift.

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[juliogotay]

Giles home/road splits are: 

HOME   .100/163/.125  with 16K/2BB

ROAD:   .304/.377/.522 with 13K/6BB

Overall the Astros are 36-2 while leading after 7. Both losses to the KC.

[gundy315]

Defensive shifts aside, I firmly believe that 99 mph heat at the letters -- instead of the 4th slider, in the same general location, in the 5th pitch of the at bat -- puts Merrifield away.   I don't know if that was Giles' or Gattis' call there, but the pitch call had me shouting at the TV, in real-time.  Hinch, in his post-game comments, did not seem happy about the pitch sequence, either.

Perhaps Giles gets Merrifield if he buries that last slider, but Giles was rushing to get warm in the pen, and it seemed a really bad spot to rely on a "feel" pitch.

[BizidyDizidy]

I agree, I was shocked they threw so many sliders; he's got to have a better chance of putting an 87mph in play than a 99mph pitch.

[JimR]

Great discussion, and I agree with much/most all of it. Was Gregerson unavailable? Why Guduan/Hoyt instead of him with a 4 run lead. Merely a question, and I have no problem with anything that happened in the 8th except Giles/Gattis pitch selection. From the very first one he threw, Giles' slider had no bite and just rolled, but he kept throwing the to Merrifield. He seemed to be sitting on it, and he got a hanger just as Yuli did the night before. Giles often falls in love with his slider and seems to forget he throws a 100 mph FB. Use it! One of the downsides of the streak was the lack of need for Giles, and it is hard for anyone to stay sharp during lack of use.

Hoyt looked tired, and Guduan pitched in bad luck. Again, where was Gregerson to start the 8th? Did Hinch think he was a bad matchup for 3-4-5? The killer was Perez' pop up falling.

[Waldo]

Was Gregerson unavailable? Why Gudual/Hoy instead of him with a 4 run lead.

That is a good question, and a scenario I hadn't envisioned.  Sipp, Gregerson, and Harris were the only pitchers not used last night, and I'm assuming Harris was the only one unavailable.

Attempting to follow the decision tree...

Royals had the left-handed Hosmer and Moustakas batting 1st and 3rd in the inning.  Guduan's good inning Monday night probably gave Hinch some confidence in him and he was probably looking for lefty/lefty matchups on Hosmer and Moustakas.  Guduan gets in trouble, and with two righties coming up I guess Hinch preferred Hoyt over Gregerson for putting out the fire with only one out.  Then Hoyt gets in trouble with two outs and Giles becomes the more obvious choice to get out of the inning.  And even disregarding the walkoff HR, if the game had gone to extras Hinch would've had to rely on his two least reliable pitchers in high leverage situations (Sipp and Gregerson).

Just a series of decisions that blew up in his face.

[Jacksonian]

That is a good question, and a scenario I hadn't envisioned.  Sipp, Gregerson, and Harris were the only pitchers not used last night, and I'm assuming Harris was the only one unavailable.

Attempting to follow the decision tree...

Royals had the left-handed Hosmer and Moustakas batting 1st and 3rd in the inning.  Guduan's good inning Monday night probably gave Hinch some confidence in him and he was probably looking for lefty/lefty matchups on Hosmer and Moustakas.  Guduan gets in trouble, and with two righties coming up I guess Hinch preferred Hoyt over Gregerson for putting out the fire with only one out.  Then Hoyt gets in trouble with two outs and Giles becomes the more obvious choice to get out of the inning.  And even disregarding the walkoff HR, if the game had gone to extras Hinch would've had to rely on his two least reliable pitchers in high leverage situations (Sipp and Gregerson).

Just a series of decisions that blew up in his face.

Not bringing him in to get the last out in the 8th shows a serious lack of faith in Gregerson.

[Jacksonian]

Guduan has been ok but I think the bullpen really misses Peacock.  I'm hoping when Musgrove returns this weekend Peacock is moved back to the pen and Guduan sent down rather than Paulino simply being sent down.

[Navin R Johnson]

Gregerson

http://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Luke-Gregerson-feels-lost-on-the-mound-11194964.php

[Ty in Tampa]

Gregerson

http://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Luke-Gregerson-feels-lost-on-the-mound-11194964.php

That's his problem. He's looking for that grove instead of that groove.

[Waldo]

Not bringing him in to get the last out in the 8th shows a serious lack of faith in Gregerson.

Hinch's recent use of Gregerson would seem to indicate exactly that.  Gregerson since May 1:

High leverage: 1.2 IP, 5.40 ERA
Medium leverage: 1 IP, 18.00 ERA
Low leverage: 8.2 IP, 4.15 ERA

[BlownRanger]

I don't want to overreact to one loss.  The Astros were not going to go 146-16.

However, like a lot of others, I find the bullpen situation worrisome, and I don't think the Astros can afford to go another six weeks with 60% of their rotation made up of guys whose effectiveness is limited to two times through the opposing lineup.  For that reason I ask the question:  should Luhnow consider moving earlier on dealing for a reliable, veteran starter?  I'm sure there are advantages to patiently waiting for the deadline (although I'm not sure what they are), but there is an immediate need for more innings out of the rotation, and I don't think a healthy Musgrove really offers that much more in the way of innings.

My two cents.

[chuck]

That's his problem. He's looking for that grove instead of that groove.

One nation under a grove, gettin' down just for the trunk of it.

[JimR]

That is a good question, and a scenario I hadn't envisioned.  Sipp, Gregerson, and Harris were the only pitchers not used last night, and I'm assuming Harris was the only one unavailable.

Attempting to follow the decision tree...

Royals had the left-handed Hosmer and Moustakas batting 1st and 3rd in the inning.  Guduan's good inning Monday night probably gave Hinch some confidence in him and he was probably looking for lefty/lefty matchups on Hosmer and Moustakas.  Guduan gets in trouble, and with two righties coming up I guess Hinch preferred Hoyt over Gregerson for putting out the fire with only one out.  Then Hoyt gets in trouble with two outs and Giles becomes the more obvious choice to get out of the inning.  And even disregarding the walkoff HR, if the game had gone to extras Hinch would've had to rely on his two least reliable pitchers in high leverage situations (Sipp and Gregerson).

Just a series of decisions that blew up in his face.

None of which I disagree with. Guduan did ok, but the poppy falling was a killer. Giles not trusting his fastball after he saw his slider was not biting is my sole regret.

[Jacksonian]

I don't want to overreact to one loss.  The Astros were not going to go 146-16.

However, like a lot of others, I find the bullpen situation worrisome, and I don't think the Astros can afford to go another six weeks with 60% of their rotation made up of guys whose effectiveness is limited to two times through the opposing lineup.  For that reason I ask the question:  should Luhnow consider moving earlier on dealing for a reliable, veteran starter?  I'm sure there are advantages to patiently waiting for the deadline (although I'm not sure what they are), but there is an immediate need for more innings out of the rotation, and I don't think a healthy Musgrove really offers that much more in the way of innings.

My two cents.

The problem is who is willing to deal?  Every AL team is no more than 5.5 games from the playoffs.  And why would any NL team deal right now for anything other than the moon?

[Waldo]

None of which I disagree with.

Me neither.

[JimR]

Guduan has been ok but I think the bullpen really misses Peacock.  I'm hoping when Musgrove returns this weekend Peacock is moved back to the pen and Guduan sent down rather than Paulino simply being sent down.

Guduan went back down today. Diaz up. Fresh arm.

[juliogotay]

Guduan went back downtoday. Diaz up. Fresh arm.

I think this is a good move.

[Jacksonian]

Guduan went back down today. Diaz up. Fresh arm.

Luhnow's done a nice job of this kind of bullpen manipulation.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

As someone who only gets to see most games thru gamecast, I want to say thanks to the rest of you for GZ discussions and threads like this one.

Fuck the cubs.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

As someone who only gets to see most games thru gamecast, I want to say thanks to the rest of you for GZ discussions and threads like this one.

Fuck the cubs.

[JimR]

The problem is who is willing to deal?  Every AL team is no more than 5.5 games from the playoffs.  And why would any NL team deal right now for anything other than the moon?

I read not too long ago Vargas (KC) may be available. We see him tonight.

ETA: I know a team cannot win them all, but it must win the games it should win. Last night was one of those. Giles' comments demonstrated he knew he fucked up and why. I hope he takes that lesson with him the rest of the way. He had 9 straight appearances without allowing a baserunner before the Rangers series, I think. I hope they are talking to him about his approach.

[Waldo]

He had 9 straight appearances without allowing a baserunner before the Rangers series, I think.

Nope.  In his nine appearances before the Rangers series, he faced four batters for 1 IP against the Tigers and Marlins, five for 1 IP and gave up a run against the Yankees (the "Marisnick throw home" game), and faced three batters to get one out against the Yankees in the doubleheader nightcap.

He's faced the minimum in only 10 of his 25 games.

[JimR]

Nope.  In his nine appearances before the Rangers series, he faced four batters for 1 IP against the Tigers and Marlins, five for 1 IP and gave up a run against the Yankees (the "Marisnick throw home" game), and faced three batters to get one out against the Yankees in the doubleheader nightcap.

He's faced the minimum in only 10 of his 25 games.

Research beats trying to remember what I heard Kalas say every time.

[Reuben]

Giles had amazing numbers in Philly. I'm assuming his 5 blown Saves or whatever mostly came when he was a setup man for Papelbon - when he'd have been much more likely to come in with the tying run already on base.

For whatever reason he hasn't been able to find the same level of dominance despite having the same great stuff. Ideally a guy like him might still be apprenticing under a top closer on a team as good as the Astros.

At least these two HR to Beltre and Moosetackles were the first two he's allowed this year. Remember that was a huge problem last year.

[HudsonHawk]

Giles had amazing numbers in Philly. I'm assuming his 5 blown Saves or whatever mostly came when he was a setup man for Papelbon - when he'd have been much more likely to come in with the tying run already on base.

For whatever reason he hasn't been able to find the same level of dominance despite having the same great stuff. Ideally a guy like him might still be apprenticing under a top closer on a team as good as the Astros.

At least these two HR to Beltre and Moosetackles were the first two he's allowed this year. Remember that was a huge problem last year.

And the HR to Beltre doesn't bother me in the least.  He had a 7-run lead, and said "here it is, hit it if you can".  I want him to challenge hitters in that situation.  The one to Moustakas, however, was not good. 

[juliogotay]

Giles this year; 15 saves in 16 save opportunities.
1.29 ERA in save situations. 
7.61 ERA in non-save situations.

[JimR]

Giles this year; 15 saves in 16 save opportunities.
1.29 ERA in save situations. 
7.61 ERA in non-save situations.

The KC game was a save situation.