International Draft in 2018

[Nate Colbert]

The terms of the international draft are being fleshed out in the CBA currently being negotiated with the MLBPA. If agreed to by the players, the new draft will:

• go into effect for the first time in March of 2018
• consist of 10 rounds held over two days
• only involve players at least 18 years of age once fully implemented in 2021 (currently players can be signed at age 16)
• involve MLB operating a plantation facilities in the Dominican Republic where players will live and develop skills prior to being drafted

Link

[Duman]

I would take exception to your plantation comment. 

1.  No one is keeping kids there.  They can leave when ever they want.
2.  They are getting marketable skills.  I can tell you at least in the Astros case, since JL became general manager, the kids who came to Greeneville from the DR were much better prepared from a language and soft skills stand point. Even if they don't make it to the states, having some of these skills will put them ahead of many other 16-18 year olds in the DR.
3.  I would prefer the kids being housed at a MLB facility with decent food, shelter and medical care than at a training camp run by a guy who is going to get 30% of their signing bonus. 

Is it a perfect option?  No, but it is much better than the current system.  If you have doubts, go back and watch Pelotero. 

[Nate Colbert]

Cutting out the buscones (if they're able to actually do that) is a good thing. Putting all 30 major league teams on a level playing field regarding the ability to sign international amateur players is a good thing. But you're naive if you think this isn't more about bonus suppression than anything else. And picking the pocket of dirt-poor kids in the Dominican (and their families) and putting that money in the hands of billionaire MLB owners gives me a bit of heartburn. But the bigger issue for me is the law of unintended consequences. Without the larger financial incentives, I would be concerned that more of those kids will stay with soccer balls rather than picking up baseballs. The talent drain to other sports in the USA over the last 40+ year has been huge. I would hate to see the same thing happen in Latin America.

[roadrunner]

Cutting out the buscones (if they're able to actually do that) is a good thing. Putting all 30 major league teams on a level playing field regarding the ability to sign international amateur players is a good thing. But you're naive if you think this isn't more about bonus suppression than anything else. And picking the pocket of dirt-poor kids in the Dominican (and their families) and putting that money in the hands of billionaire MLB owners gives me a bit of heartburn. But the bigger issue for me is the law of unintended consequences. Without the larger financial incentives, I would be concerned that more of those kids will stay with soccer balls rather than picking up baseballs. The talent drain to other sports in the USA over the last 40+ year has been huge. I would hate to see the same thing happen in Latin America.

Agreed on all counts.  It seems like Manfred listens to feedback, so hopefully he is aware of these concerns when designing the draft. 

[Duman]

Cutting out the buscones (if they're able to actually do that) is a good thing. Putting all 30 major league teams on a level playing field regarding the ability to sign international amateur players is a good thing. But you're naive if you think this isn't more about bonus suppression than anything else. And picking the pocket of dirt-poor kids in the Dominican (and their families) and putting that money in the hands of billionaire MLB owners gives me a bit of heartburn. But the bigger issue for me is the law of unintended consequences. Without the larger financial incentives, I would be concerned that more of those kids will stay with soccer balls rather than picking up baseballs. The talent drain to other sports in the USA over the last 40+ year has been huge. I would hate to see the same thing happen in Latin America.

Yes, it is about bonus suppression.  Buscones do much more pocket picking/ exploiting than MLB will.

The talent drain to other sports in the US has little to do with bonus money.  It has to do with perceptions of quick fame &  realities of available scholarships. 

Football - 85 college scholarships and play right away in the NFL
Basketball - 13 college scholarships and can play right away in the NBA or international league.  Even if you are in the D-League, it is not a big jump to the NBA.
Baseball - 11.7 college scholarships and will likely play in the minors making less than minimum wage before making it to the majors. 

Which path would you pick? 

Sure other sports like soccer and lacrosse are taking some talent from baseball but I have no problem with kids doing what they enjoy.

[Nate Colbert]

To see the deleterious impact of instituting a draft, look at what happened in Puerto Rico. Prior to 1990, PR players were not subject to the MLB draft and could sign as free agents to the highest bidder just like other foreign amateur players. The talent level coming out of Puerto Rico then dropped significantly and numerous articles (like this one in the NY Times) attributed the drop to the draft or at least raised the question as to whether there was a link. With Lindor and Correa maybe that 20 to 25-year decline in talent is finally beginning to turn itself around.

The pros of instituting the draft (possibly get rid of the blood-sucking buscones, level the playing field for all 30 teams, possibly eliminate or cut down on the use of PEDs) are pretty overwhelming. I'm not totally convinced, though, there won't be some downsides in the longer run.

[chuck]

Rooting around in the Times after reading the above piece I found this.

It seems evident that once Puerto Rican players were subject to the amateur draft virtually all MLB teams decided to abandon their gold rush mentality on the island, reasonably so, possibly, and the amount of good instruction available to the average young player dried up almost entirely. And, of course, since in PR there is basically nothing like the youth baseball infrastructure that exists in the US the production of talent decreased noticeably.

I would expect the same thing to happen in the DR if individual teams abandon or greatly scale back their training facilities. That would be a real shame for the game at all levels. And, it's worth mentioning, in the cases of these island players it is almost never an issue of losing a player to another sport. There are effectively no other sports in these places. What I see is these players losing out to better prepared US Americans.

Of course the DR has three times the population that PR has so individual teams may feel that it's more important to maintain an active presence there.

[Duman]

A significant difference is most MLB teams already have infrastructure in the DR with academies.  Those didn't exist in PR.  Also there was plenty of cheap talent in Ven. & DR at that time.  Scouting in Ven has been curtailed significantly in recent years and most MLB teams have closed their academies there.   

It is interesting that the article in NYT was done in 2012 when PR had the first over all pick and two more guys picked in the supplemental 1st round. It was clear there was a dip after the draft was instituted but it appears that per capita, there are more PR kids drafted out of HS than most other states. 

Also look at the diversity in names of academies in PR now in recent draft years.  The market has responded.  Yes it has taken a while but it appears a correction has taken place. 

I am sure there will be some negative and unintended consequences of the draft.  Some smart GM or young whipper snapper who works for one will find a loop hole to exploit. Eventually, it will be corrected, that is how markets work. 

[Nate Colbert]

I don't know why a lot of that individual team infrastructure that's currently in place in the DR wouldn't wither away and be subsumed by the MLB complex/complexes. I suspect the DSL would still exist but it would consist of MLB-run teams rather than pitting the various academy teams against one another. There's no reason to have the Astros or other clubs putting developmental personnel down there. At the age these kids would be drafted at (18), you'd assign 'em to SS clubs in the US.

[Duman]

How many 18 year old (or younger) foreign kids were in SS ball this year?  9 (10 if you count Muriel who is from PR and was drafted in 15)

Of the 9, only 5 started the year in the US on a SS roster.  4 were promoted to the US during the season.  I see that as a much more common occurrence. 

Drafted in March
Have two months to assess and start DSL season slightly ahead of US SS teams.
Send the most advanced kids to US during the season. 

You will still need the academies.  You just might not need two teams. 

[Duman]

Well done pro and con piece done by BA

[Nate Colbert]

Ben Badler on the brewing protest by the buscones (including some verbal support by unnamed scouts who aren't fans of the proposed changes either).

[Nate Colbert]

A number of Dominican and Venezuelan MLBers have spoken out against the proposed draft.

And now the MLBPA apparently is pushing back hard on the idea in the CBA negotiations. From the article:

As one union source put it [regarding the tradeoff of eliminating draft pick compensation on free agents vs instituting a draft]: “We aren’t giving them something that affects 30 percent of big leaguers and probably 50 percent of minor leaguers in exchange for something that affects less than 20 players every year, especially guys who are staring $17 million in the face.”

[Reuben]

Well, when you put it THAT way...

[Nate Colbert]

Jayson Stark

Possible path to compromise: in lieu of draft, international spending limits that are "more effective" than the ones currently in place.

[Nate Colbert]

B-L-I-N-K

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  11 minutes ago
Sources: Owners have backed off the international draft as a requirement for a new collective-bargaining agreement.

[Nate Colbert]

Jayson Stark

Possible path to compromise: in lieu of draft, international spending limits that are "more effective" than the ones currently in place.

Early reports on new CBA say hard cap of $5MM (some reports say $6MM) annually that teams won't be allowed to exceed.

Cuban-born players who are at least 25 years old, with six-plus years of experience in Serie Nacional, will maintain exemption from the international bonus pool (that's up from 23 years old and 5 years in SN currently). No one has yet said (publicly anyway) whether players from the NPB and KBO would be similarly impacted. The biggest name out there of course is Otani so if Japanese and Korean players will fall under similar rules then his move to MLB could be postponed from as early as next offseason (when he's 23) to after the 2019 season.

[Nate Colbert]

Cuban-born players who are at least 25 years old, with six-plus years of experience in Serie Nacional, will maintain exemption from the international bonus pool (that's up from 23 years old and 5 years in SN currently). No one has yet said (publicly anyway) whether players from the NPB and KBO would be similarly impacted. The biggest name out there of course is Otani so if Japanese and Korean players will fall under similar rules then his move to MLB could be postponed from as early as next offseason (when he's 23) to after the 2019 season.

At least one published report now saying that via the CBA being "tweaked" or thru some other mechanism it's possible that Otani would be allowed to join MLB earlier than 2019.

[Nate Colbert]

Best recap of the new hard cap on international spending (as well as the CBA changes to draft pick compensation) that I've seen to date is this article from Jonathan Mayo.

Based on Mayo's article, it appears the Astros in the 2017 signing period (beginning next July 2) will have $4.75MM available to spend. However, the penalties from exceeding the 2016 spending limits continue to carryover under the new CBA so that Houston won't be able to sign any individual player for more than $300K.