Brexit will be studied in political science class for a very long time...
So, a weakened PM - David Cameron - was not expecting to retain that job after the upcoming election because his Conservative party was not expected to gain a majority in the House of Commons (think House of Representatives and Speaker). He did want to secure his position as leader of his party though, so he came up with a plan - over coffee one morning, apparently - to throw a bone to the right-wing activists in his party; he'd give them the EU referendum they'd always wanted. That would make them happy and stop them trying to oust him from his leadership position. It was an easy call; there's no way the British public would vote "Leave", especially after the show of unity in the UK around the Scottish independence referendum.
To the surprise of many, Cameron's Conservative Party won a majority, and he was duly installed as PM. So now he had to make good on his promise.
What followed was a effort of breathtaking dishonesty from both sides. Brexiters threatened that we'd all be killed by terrorists if we stayed; and that EU dues would bankrupt us. How much better, they argued, if we took the GBP 350 million we pay to Europe each week and spend it, say, on the National Health Service. Interestingly, the Remain campaign also threatened death by terrorism and promised an improved health service. So there was no real difference to either camp - you were going to die by terrorism or lack of healthcare either way you voted - except for the thinly veiled streak of racism running through the Brexit campaign.
The results were shocking to me but, when you unpack them, totally realistic. Older generations were majority Leave while younger generations were majority Remain; Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland were majority Remain while England was majority Leave; the English cities (notably London) were majority Remain while the balance of the country was majority Leave. Basically, older, less educated English people voted the rest of the UK out of Europe, because they were scared that immigrants will kill them and/or be in front of them in the line for a free hip replacement.
Drowned out in the cacophony of lies from both campaigns, were the disinterested voices who said that leaving would destabilize the world economy and the pound, cost the country its standing as a world leader and see an outflow of jobs. You know, all the things that happened immediately and dramatically after the vote tally was final. One of the lead Brexiters was Michael Gove who countered all such sage advice by stating - correctly it seems - that the British people are fed up of listening to the experts.
So now:
- Cameron has lost the job he so desperately tried to cling on to;
- The opposition party is in tatters due to its inability to defend the Remain position
- The Domesday predictions of "so called" experts have arrived with a vengeance - a UK recession is all-but inevitable at this point;
- Brexit leaders have been shown to have no plan now that Cameron has left them holding this very noisy baby;
- Brexit leaders have already disavowed any suggestion that the GBP 350 million per week is going to the NHS, that the number itself (that was emblazoned upon the side of their campaign bus) is not accurate (true) and that the NHS might, actually, need to be privatized;
- Non-racist Brexiters have a massive dose of buyers remorse - it even has a name: "Bregret";
- Racist Brexiters have been emboldened to the point that they are now openly abusing people who aren't "them", telling "them" to get out of the country; and
- Your, yes, your 401k is, on average, $2,500 smaller than it was last Thursday morning.
In the aftermath, Bregret seems to be taking hold. Brexiters, who claimed that they would negotiate with the EU prior to invoking Article 50 - which starts a two-year clock ticking for full and final exit from the EU - have had that rug pulled out from under them. EU leaders have stated that there will be no negotiation without an invocation of Article 50 - and it was reckless of anyone to believe that there would be any other reaction than this. The UK loses all bargaining power once the Article 50 clock is ticking, so we are already at the first hurdle, and we have fallen.
Unbundling the UK form Europe is such an enormous and unfathomable task, that there's no way to get it done in two years without massive trauma to the UK. All the Brits living and working abroad have to apply for work permits - with little incentive for their European host to allow them - having just been told to go fuck themselves. All Europeans living and working in the UK have to do likewise; but they will likely get an easier ride - except from the UKIP camp who are now moving on to Phase 2 of purifying the English race.
They will have to erect and police a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland; because that was so popular before. Scotland, Northern Ireland and maybe even Wales will push for a referendum on leaving the UK - the Scots will almost certainly get theirs and next time they will vote out. Businesses - particularly in the financial sector - will leave London for European financial centers. Britain will (probably already has) lose its status as a world leader; something it will never regain in its future as an independent island nation with a small economy.
This is a disaster of epic proportions, and everybody knows it.
[As a complete aside, with England still in Euro 16, it will be interesting to see how our European hosts react to the national anthem when we play later today. Lucky for them, today they play Iceland; if they win, the next play France...]
I guess I picked the right year to get my US citizenship. Eh? Oh.
