Timely hitting

[JimR]

Last night was our season in microcosm. Chance after chance, and the hitters do not deliver. With two on and no out, Correa pops up. With two out and nobody on, he doubles off the wall. Altuve and Springer go out meekly in the 9th. Gattis has good swings and bad luck on the mistake pitch, but whiffs.

Argh, baseball! Gotta have this one tonight.

[HudsonHawk]

One of the themes this year has been no productive outs.  It's typically strikeouts, but popups and shallow fly balls essentially result in the same.  It's been glaring all year and it was on display last night. 

Also, is it just me or has the running game we saw early this year seem to have disappeared?

[JimR]

One of the themes this year has been no productive outs.  It's typically strikeouts, but popups and shallow fly balls essentially result in the same.  It's been glaring all year and it was on display last night. 

Also, is it just me or has the running game we saw early this year seem to have disappeared?

I agree with all of this. we do not move runners with outs a lot of the time, and I think we have stopped running like we were.

[roadrunner]

I also wonder what happened to the running game.  One of the main themes during the 10-game winning streak was running all over the opposition.  Part of that may have been pitchers overlooking the team's speed, and therefore now they are paying more attention to it, and part of it may be Springer being shelved for 1-2 months...but now that he's back I'd like to see that be a part of the offense again.  It feels like the offense is waiting on the big hit (which rarely comes) rather than trying to create a run.

Good point, HH, on the lack of productive outs.

1.5 weeks left, so there isn't much time left for correction...

[JimR]

it is the situational awareness stuff we argued about yesterday. with few exceptions, it is an entire team of "Chuckie be hackin'."

[mrpink]

Fangraphs has a metric they call "clutch".

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

The Astros rank 29th overall.  Right between the D-Backs and Reds.  The Royals are 1st.

[Bench]

I was amazed to see a stat earlier this week that Correa is batting .400 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position. 

[juliogotay]

I also wonder what happened to the running game.  One of the main themes during the 10-game winning streak was running all over the opposition.  Part of that may have been pitchers overlooking the team's speed, and therefore now they are paying more attention to it, and part of it may be Springer being shelved for 1-2 months...but now that he's back I'd like to see that be a part of the offense again.  It feels like the offense is waiting on the big hit (which rarely comes) rather than trying to create a run.

Good point, HH, on the lack of productive outs.

1.5 weeks left, so there isn't much time left for correction...

Marisnick was a big part of that running game and he has been relegated to part-time status. Also he went a long period without getting on base like he did early in the season when he was in the lineup. He seems like a very fundamentally sound player, doesn't make many mental errors on the bases or in the field. I hope they keep him.

[ValpoCory]

Last night was our season in microcosm. Chance after chance, and the hitters do not deliver. With two on and no out, Correa pops up. With two out and nobody on, he doubles off the wall. Altuve and Springer go out meekly in the 9th. Gattis has good swings and bad luck on the mistake pitch, but whiffs.

Argh, baseball! Gotta have this one tonight.

I posted this in another thread, but it belongs here, so I'll move it. 

The Astros had a whopping 19 plate appearances last night with the tying run on base.  The Astros were 1 for 15 with 4  walks and 0 RBI in those opportunities.

So frustrating.

[JimR]

Marisnick was a big part of that running game and he has been relegated to part-time status. Also he went a long period without getting on base like he did early in the season when he was in the lineup. He seems like a very fundamentally sound player, doesn't make many mental errors on the bases or in the field. I hope they keep him.

Base stealing wise, we lose nothing with Gomez over Marisnick and are better with them both playing. Marisnick ran at least three times last night, but the hitters fouled pitches off. More "Chuckie be hackin'."

[NeilT]

Part of the problem is that for RBI they've bought Gattis, Carter, and Rasmus, all of whom share power and inconsistency and a relatively cheap price.  They've raised Correa, Springer, Altuve, and Singleton, one of whom hasn't performed, one of whom isn't an RBI guy, and two of whom are getting there. The trade for Gomez was the best they could do to solve the problem, and he's not playing. They need a player (or two players) who they don't have, and I don't think they expected themselves to be in the position of needing them yet.

[Reuben]

With the steals thing, I suspect that Altuve and possibly Springer are a bit banged up, and feeling reluctant to run with their legs not 100%. Gomez might be in the same boat, just comparing his SB numbers in previous years.

Correa might be running less because the league has realized he's a sneaky basestealer when given the opportunity.

[juliogotay]

Part of the problem is that for RBI they've bought Gattis, Carter, and Rasmus, all of whom share power and inconsistency and a relatively cheap price.  They've raised Correa, Springer, Altuve, and Singleton, one of whom hasn't performed, one of whom isn't an RBI guy, and two of whom are getting there. The trade for Gomez was the best they could do to solve the problem, and he's not playing. They need a player (or two players) who they don't have, and I don't think they expected themselves to be in the position of needing them yet.

From the minors I think Reed and Tyler White could make positive contributions next year. Maybe platoon at 1B or even share some time at DH. Obviously neither brings the veteran savvy that may be missing.

[ValpoCory]

Correa might be running less because the league has realized he's a sneaky basestealer when given the opportunity.

They got him this time.

[Reuben]

From the minors I think Reed and Tyler White could make positive contributions next year. Maybe platoon at 1B or even share some time at DH. Obviously neither brings the veteran savvy that may be missing.

It'll be interesting to see what they do this offseason. Catcher is an obvious position they could upgrade, but there's hardly anything there on the FA market, unless you love Matt Wieters. 1B has Chris Davis and not much else, and I doubt the Astros will sign a FA there anyway. OF has some interesting guys - Heyward and Upton are expected to get megabucks, and there's Alex Gordon, Cespedes, Fowler, Rasmus...

I could easily see them not signing a major FA hitter. Maybe they'll make some trades.

[Navin R Johnson]

They could really use a middle of the order hitter, none of Gattis, Carter, Gomez, Lowrie, Rasmus, are what you want hitting 4th on a playoff team.  All (well minus Carter) are guys I love having on the team, but they are being asked to bat in a spot they aren't fit for.

Correa seems like a natural in the 3 hole, but they need to find someone to bat 4th.  Could Springer become the 4 hole hitter?  If not him, where does that player come from.  Stick with cleanup hitter by committee?

[MusicMan]

Gattis was supposed to be the 4 hole guy. He's had a disappointing season.


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[NeilT]

In September they've lost 14 games.  Of the 14 games, they've lost 8 games giving up more than 5 runs.  5-7, 3-8, 9--10, 3-5, 5-6, 3-14, 2-8, and 5-6. In 3 of the 7 wins, they've  given up 5 or more runs.  The combined ERA is 11th in the AL, at 5.01.  The hitting average is 5th in the AL at .270, and 2nd in OPS, at .807, but  before today 11th in the AL in runs scored. They're scoring a bit fewer than 5 runs a game (which doesn't seem horrible) and giving up slightly more than 5 runs a game (which seems pretty bad).  They've scored fewer than 3 runs in 4 of 21 games.  They've given up 4 or more runs in all but 5 games.  You should win some games when you have 3 runs.  They haven't.  You should win some games when you have 2 runs.  They haven't. 

Of the 20 losses, 7 were bullpen losses.  3 for Neshek, 1 each for Perez and Gregerson, 2 for Harris.  Fields has given up 10 earned runs. 

The starters have a combined ERA (excluding Feldman's injury game) of 4.18.  Only McCullers has an ERA less than 4 (3.24).

[Jacksonian]

It'll be interesting to see what they do this offseason. Catcher is an obvious position they could upgrade, but there's hardly anything there on the FA market, unless you love Matt Wieters. 1B has Chris Davis and not much else, and I doubt the Astros will sign a FA there anyway. OF has some interesting guys - Heyward and Upton are expected to get megabucks, and there's Alex Gordon, Cespedes, Fowler, Rasmus...

I could easily see them not signing a major FA hitter. Maybe they'll make some trades.

Tyler White will be attending instructs this fall as a catcher.  I'm curious how that goes.

[Noe]

Gattis was supposed to be the 4 hole guy. He's had a disappointing season.


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I don't know about that. He's nearing 100 rbis and has over 25 hrs. He's not a league leader for sure, but the idea is that your #5 hitter is your top run producer and your cleanup guy is your top masher. Gattis has no one behind him that is consistently putting up the production you expect out of your #5. So he hits in a position that is a hybrid, part masher, part run producer because he has to hit that way in this lineup.

Get a Moises Alou type #5 behind Gattis and then watch what he can do as a pure masher.  He'll get more fastballs to hit and more opportunities to do some damage if the other team wants to avoid that run producing #5.

[Jacksonian]

In September they've lost 14 games.  Of the 14 games, they've lost 8 games giving up more than 5 runs.  5-7, 3-8, 9--10, 3-5, 5-6, 3-14, 2-8, and 5-6. In 3 of the 7 wins, they've  given up 5 or more runs.  The combined ERA is 11th in the AL, at 5.01.  The hitting average is 5th in the AL at .270, and 2nd in OPS, at .807, but  before today 11th in the AL in runs scored. They're scoring a bit fewer than 5 runs a game (which doesn't seem horrible) and giving up slightly more than 5 runs a game (which seems pretty bad).  They've scored fewer than 3 runs in 4 of 21 games.  They've given up 4 or more runs in all but 5 games.  You should win some games when you have 3 runs.  They haven't.  You should win some games when you have 2 runs.  They haven't. 

Of the 20 losses, 7 were bullpen losses.  3 for Neshek, 1 each for Perez and Gregerson, 2 for Harris.  Fields has given up 10 earned runs. 

The starters have a combined ERA (excluding Feldman's injury game) of 4.18.  Only McCullers has an ERA less than 4 (3.24).

Per Mcbrag tweet the bullpen ERA has skyrocketed to over 6 in September.

[NeilT]

Per Mcbrag tweet the bullpen ERA has skyrocketed to over 6 in September.

Even when the bullpen doesn't outright lose the game, they're digging the hole deeper.

[NeilT]

This is fascinating.  For team BA, the month by month splits are April .238, May .236, June .246, July .257, August .237, September .271.  For runs scored it's 39, 52, 51, 35, 38, 39.  They have hit far better in September than any other month, but haven't scored more runs.  HR probably explains a lot of that: 29, 39, 45, 30, 36, 30.

Pitching is where it really jumps around.  April ERA, 3.04.  May jumps to 4.03, June 3.34, July 3.52, August 2.61--and I don't remember August being that spectacular, September 4.96.  4.96. Pitching in September has just nose-dived.  Diven. Doved.

[JimR]

I don't know about that. He's nearing 100 rbis and has over 25 hrs. He's not a league leader for sure, but the idea is that your #5 hitter is your top run producer and your cleanup guy is your top masher. Gattis has no one behind him that is consistently putting up the production you expect out of your #5. So he hits in a position that is a hybrid, part masher, part run producer because he has to hit that way in this lineup.

Get a Moises Alou type #5 behind Gattis and then watch what he can do as a pure masher.  He'll get more fastballs to hit and more opportunities to do some damage if the other team wants to avoid that run producing #5.

I totally agree with this.

[JimR]

This is fascinating.  For team BA, the month by month splits are April .238, May .236, June .246, July .257, August .237, September .271.  For runs scored it's 39, 52, 51, 35, 38, 39.  They have hit far better in September than any other month, but haven't scored more runs.  HR probably explains a lot of that: 29, 39, 45, 30, 36, 30.

Pitching is where it really jumps around.  April ERA, 3.04.  May jumps to 4.03, June 3.34, July 3.52, August 2.61--and I don't remember August being that spectacular, September 4.96.  4.96. Pitching in September has just nose-dived.  Diven. Doved.

Neil, the issue is not are they getting hits but when do they not. Time after time this team failed to score important runs with less than two outs and runners on. HH's point yesterday about not making productive outs was a great one.
They do not move runners or have situational awareness at the plate.

No one can or will argue your point on the bullpen. It collapsed in September. Perhaps if the hitters had come through more often in the many situations they had, the bullpen might not have been under so much pressure to either hold a slim deficit or to protect a slim lead.

[NeilT]

The hitters are producing a half-run more per game than they've produced all season. They are hitting significantly better in September than any month since June. If they're pressing, it's because they're starting two runs down every game and then having their leads blown.

7 losses by the bullpen. 7. A full run worse in Era by the starters. A bullpen with an era over 6. Meanwhile they're batting .270 and producing nearly 5 runs per game. This was not a hitter problem.

[JimR]

The hitters are producing a half-run more per game than they've produced all season. They are hitting significantly better in September than any month since June. If they're pressing, it's because they're starting two runs down every game and then having their leads blown.

7 losses by the bullpen. 7. A full run worse in Era by the starters. A bullpen with an era over 6. Meanwhile they're batting .270 and producing nearly 5 runs per game. This was not a hitter problem.

ok. I give up.

[Jacksonian]

The hitters are producing a half-run more per game than they've produced all season. They are hitting significantly better in September than any month since June. If they're pressing, it's because they're starting two runs down every game and then having their leads blown.

7 losses by the bullpen. 7. A full run worse in Era by the starters. A bullpen with an era over 6. Meanwhile they're batting .270 and producing nearly 5 runs per game. This was not a hitter problem.

I think the bullpen problems are a cumulative effect of the pressure they've been under since the beginning of May.  They've finally worn out.  The hitters aren't capable of producing the necessary runs game in and game out to provide the cushion the pitchers now need to secure wins.

[JimR]

and run averages are useless to tell what happened game to game.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

and run averages are useless to tell what happened game to game.

Point taken, but I think games like yesterday are indicative of what Neil's saying.  Hitters rally back and put runs on the board after starting in a hole, bullpen puts them behind again, and they muster one run too few in their last rally.  I feel like we've seen that pattern a lot this month, and it seems that the stats bear that out.

[HudsonHawk]

I think the bullpen problems are a cumulative effect of the pressure they've been under since the beginning of May.  They've finally worn out.  The hitters aren't capable of producing the necessary runs game in and game out to provide the cushion the pitchers now need to secure wins.

+1,000,000

The difference between last year and this year has been the bullpen.  They are the reason the Astros have been in first place and are fighting for a post-season spot.  Neshek has been a rock most of the year.  Harris was a godsend.  Gregerson has been a legit closer.  They have been so good most of the year , and their outstanding job is the reason we are able to even talk about them collapsing in September.  And they have.  And it's been disappointing.  Not for me, but for them.  I look at a guy like Will Harris...everyone has given up on you, picked up off the scrap heap by a team no one gave much of a chance...and then to come out and pitch so well for so long.  To walk a guy in a crucial situation or give up a big 2-out hit to surrender a lead has got to be gut wrenching for these guys. 

[Reuben]

Tyler White will be attending instructs this fall as a catcher.  I'm curious how that goes.

I'm not holding out much hope that a corner IF with shaky defense can convert to MLB-caliber catcher after reaching the AAA level, are you? I know he's supposed to be very intelligent and hard-working, and I'm pulling for him, but I can't think of any player that has done it before.

[juliogotay]

I'm not holding out much hope that a corner IF with shaky defense can convert to MLB-caliber catcher after reaching the AAA level, are you? I know he's supposed to be very intelligent and hard-working, and I'm pulling for him, but I can't think of any player that has done it before.

I bet his future his 1B or DH if he is even a major league caliber hitter.

[Waldo]

I don't know about that. He's nearing 100 rbis and has over 25 hrs. He's not a league leader for sure, but the idea is that your #5 hitter is your top run producer and your cleanup guy is your top masher. Gattis has no one behind him that is consistently putting up the production you expect out of your #5. So he hits in a position that is a hybrid, part masher, part run producer because he has to hit that way in this lineup.

Get a Moises Alou type #5 behind Gattis and then watch what he can do as a pure masher.  He'll get more fastballs to hit and more opportunities to do some damage if the other team wants to avoid that run producing #5.

I've tried to keep a lot of this in the perspective of where Luhnow, et al. thought the team would be this year, i.e. a .500-ish team that probably wouldn't compete for anything.  I suspect the lineup will look a lot different next year, especially with a full season of Correa and hopefully with fewer extended injuries to important contributors like Springer, Lowrie, and Gomez.

[Noe]

I've tried to keep a lot of this in the perspective of where Luhnow, et al. thought the team would be this year, i.e. a .500-ish team that probably wouldn't compete for anything.  I suspect the lineup will look a lot different next year, especially with a full season of Correa and hopefully with fewer extended injuries to important contributors like Springer, Lowrie, and Gomez.

Gomez intrigues me. I have not followed his career much other than the dust ups he has had in the past from his antics on the field and of course his unwillingness to back down to anyone who trash talks him. That is probably an unfair assessment of his true baseball skills, but the little I've seen of him so far, he has the potential to be a very good hitter in the five hole. He's aggressive and seems to have a good idea what is needed to drive in a run. His splits when it comes to RISP are a bit incredible (in a positive way) to me. If he works out as a five hitter instead of a run scorer at the top of the order (if you have Springer, Altuve and Correa already working that part of the lineup), you've got a pretty good start to a very scary solid lineup (and not a fragmented lineup I saw this year). What you do to bat *behind* those top five (Altuve, Springer, Correa, Gattis, and Gomez) is anyones guess, but I would look towards Tucker as the next candidate in line to take a full time position as a left fielder and the #6 guy hitting behind Gomez. Time for Tucker to prove he can hit and play more consistently given his chance to do so. After that, it's gravy IMHO.

[mrpink]

Gomez intrigues me. I have not followed his career much other than the dust ups he has had in the past from his antics on the field and of course his unwillingness to back down to anyone who trash talks him. That is probably an unfair assessment of his true baseball skills, but the little I've seen of him so far, he has the potential to be a very good hitter in the five hole. He's aggressive and seems to have a good idea what is needed to drive in a run. His splits when it comes to RISP are a bit incredible (in a positive way) to me.

http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=109797.msg302113#msg302113

I guess we were both wrong.  Me more than you though.

[juliogotay]

http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=109797.msg302113#msg302113

I guess we were both wrong.  Me more than you though.

He became more of a power hitter in 2012.

[Noe]

http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=109797.msg302113#msg302113

I guess we were both wrong.  Me more than you though.

Yup, was basing it on his defense at the time and the things he brought to the table as an acquire by the Mets from the Twinkies. Swing and a miss then... hopefully I'm not wrong about his ability to be a run producer if so called upon.

[Kit]

Speaking of timely, It's the 29th anniversary of the Mike Scott no-no to clinch. We could use a bit of that ju-ju right now.  I know it's been a bummer the last couple weeks. But Hey, its 9 games to go and were in the playoff hunt gawdangit!! Let's go get em Stros!!!

[juliogotay]

Speaking of timely, It's the 29th anniversary of the Mike Scott no-no to clinch. We could use a bit of that ju-ju right now.  I know it's been a bummer the last couple weeks. But Hey, its 9 games to go and were in the playoff hunt gawdangit!! Let's go get em Stros!!!

Man that makes me feel old. 29 years. I was I the dome for all three of those great-pitched games. I was also there for opening day that year. I remember Ryan started and Will Clark led off the game with a shot into the tunnel.

[Kit]

I remember Scott drilling the first batter of the game in that no-no. Wouldn't be a bad way to start tonight, we haven't pitched inside enough and the Rangers have looked way to comfortable up there lately.