Revisiting the 2009 draft

[Duman]

With the release of Telvin Nash this week, I went back and looked at the 2009 draft.  Here are some observations:

Astros drafted 51 players.  They signed 36 of them.  Of the 36 signed 4 have made it to the majors.

Enrique Hernandez (6th round)
Keuchel (9th round)
Jake Gobbert (13th round)
J. D. Martinez (20th round)

Four players made it to AAA
Mier (only one still active in minors but is at AA) 1st round
Meyer - 3rd round supplemental
Wikoff - 5th round
Castro - 10th round

4 made it to AA
Nash - 3rd round
Orloff - 9th round
Berner - 14th round
Butera - 21st round

4 more made it to high A
Donovan - 23rd round
Modica - 24th round
Hogue - 35th round
Schurz - 44th round

Eight only made it to Low A (Bushue 2nd, Walker 8, Williams 11, B. Kemp 19, Bray 27,  Stines 33, Rivera 37, Sarisky 40
Twelve didn't make it to full season ball. These include 4th round pick B. J. Hyatt plus picks 15, 16,17,18,22,25,29,31, 34, 38, 50.

Last season in affiliated ball:
09 - 4 (highest pick #18 McDonald)
10 - 11 (highest pick #8 Walker)
11 - 7 (highest pick #11 Williams)
12 - 2 ( #4 Hyatt & Hogue #35)
13 - 3 (#2 Bushue, 5 Wikoff, 9 Orloff
14 - 2 (#10 Castro & 37 Rivera)
15 - 1 (Nash #3)

Trades:
Hernandez #6 - Traded with Austin Wates, Jarred Cosart to Marilns for Moran, Marisnick & Frances Marte (July 14) - That trade is looking very good with the way Marisnick is playing and Marte is pitching in low A.

Gobbert  #13- Traded to A's for Travis Blackley April 13 - Blackley appeared in 42 games out of the Astros pen for a WAR of .01 and was then flipped to the Rangers  in August for a PTBNL &/or cash.  It appears it was cash because I could find no record of a PTBNL.

Of the players who didn't sign, there is one in the Majors now.  Paco Rodriguez was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2012 draft by the Dodgers and is currently in their pen. 

A total of 8 improved their draft slot by not signing.  Three were top ten round picks (#32 G. Peavey, #36 G. Saladino, and #48 Rodriguez)
One went backwards - #45 Moralis dropped to 49th round in 2011.

Four were never drafted again - #12, #28, #30, #39

Two signed NDFA contracts with after college - #26 Pare & #49 Smith

Of the 15 who didn't sign, only four are still active.

#26 Pare - High A - Giants
#32 Peavey - AA - Mets
#36 Saladino - AAA - White Sox
#49 Rodriguez - MLB - Dodgers
Three of those four were the ones re-drafted in the top 10 rounds.  Pare is the outlier who signed the NDFA contract in 13 with the Giants.

The other 7 who played affiliated ball never made it to AA before being released. 

Summation:
The Astros front office at the time swung and missed at several toolsy HS kids high in the draft. Five of the first 7 players picked were HS kids and only one made it to the show (Hernandez)

They did well identifying some quality potential further down the draft grabbing Keuchel in the 8th and Martinez in the 20th.  Their performance has softened the blow of missing on the top picks. 

The biggest bust go to Bushue and Hyatt which both had their careers cut short by injuries.  Hyatt never made it to full season ball and Bushue spent parts of four season in short season ball.

[pots]

Awesome summary.

I find the Keuchel signing a great story for those that don't know it. 

Scouts recollection:

Stevenson, who signed one-time top prospect Yovani Gallardo, said Keuchel is the pick he takes the most pride in. The scout compares him to Kenny Rogers and Mark Buehrle.

"You would go away unimpressed (in college if you watched him once)," Stevenson said. "You'd walk away and go, 'Ho hum.' If you didn't know him and didn't catch him on a regular basis, you could not appreciate what he did week after week after week."

Stevenson would put down his radar gun when Keuchel took the mound to pretend he had little interest.

When draft day came around in 2009, Keuchel hadn't been seen by Astros scouting director Bobby Heck - only by Stevenson and crosschecker Ralph Bratton.

Stevenson thought the lefty was second-round material.

"I was wearing out Ralph," Stevenson said. "I'm at home watching it on the Internet and literally (telling Bratton), Dallas Keuchel, Dallas Keuchel, Dallas Keuchel. Just wearing him out."

He was theirs in the seventh round.

From Heck:

Dallas Keuchel, I didn't see him pitch that spring," Heck said. "First time I saw Dallas Keuchel was instructional league, after his draft. There's always some anxiety when you take a guy in the first 10 rounds and you didn't see him as scouting director. And then when I saw him, you want to hug the guys that did a good job on him."

Also from article referring to the miss on Trout:

The Astros, like most teams, missed out on Mike Trout in the 2009 draft. The team's first-round pick that year, shortstop Jiovanni Mier at No. 21 overall, hasn't developed offensively. Trout went four selections later.

"I think we could have done a better job on Michael Trout," Heck said. "You know Jio Mier, at the time we thought we were taking the best high school shortstop in the draft."

Heck said the Astros just didn't scout Trout well enough.

[jbm]

I think that if you get a Keuchel and JD, along with Hernandez, that's a successful draft.  I'm not sure why that is considered "softening the blow" just because they were later round picks.  An interesting analysis is to add the WAR (or similar type measure) of all the players drafted by each team.  I'd be surprised if the Astros 2009 draft, generally thought to be poor, didn't finish in the top half or higher, at least in the last year.

[Nate Colbert]

Awesome summary.

+1

[Duman]

Baseball reference has the war for the players drafted on their draft pages.  Here are the war for the players who have made it to the bigs. It is updated daily so it might go up or down slightly.

#6 Hernandez - 1.9
#8 Keuchel - 8.0
#13 Goebbert - -0.1
#20 Martinez - 3.4

Total War = 13.2

When you add in the unsigned player (Rodriguez 2.1) you get a total draft war of 15.3 or 3.1 per major leaguer. 

for comparison, here are all the other team's:

Angels        40.5 (Trout accounts for 31.5 of that) 5.8 per player
A's                1.8 , 0.2 per player
Blue Jays     21.5, 2.2 per player
Braves          5.8, 1.4 per player
Brewers        9.6, 1.4 per player
Cardinals    30.6, 4.4 per player (Matt Carpenter 12 & Shelby Miller 8.3 account for most of that)
Cubs             5.1 , 1.0 per player
Devil Rays  -0.6 or -0.2 per player (that is one bad draft)
D-Backs     29.3, 2.9 per player (Goldschmidt accounts for 18.2 and Pollock for 9.6)
Dodgers     -0.2, -0.1 per player (and that came from a player who didn't sign!)
Giants       11.8, 2.4 per player (Belt accounts for 10.2)
Indians     14.5, 1.8 per player (Kipnis = 14.7 - Alex White was their #1 pick that year)
Mariners  22.8, 3.3 per player (Ackley 8.5 & Seager 14.9)
Marlins      6.3, 3.1 per player
Mets          0.7, 0.3 per player
Nats         18.2, 2.6 per player (Strasburg 11.3 & Storen 6.2)
O's              0.0, 0.0 per player (swing & a miss - not a single draft pick signed or unsigned has made it to the bigs)
Padres       -1.2, -0.3 per player
Phillies       4.0, 0.7 per player
Pirates        4.5, 0.8 per player
Rangers      1.2, 0.3 per player
Red Sox       0.2, 0.1 per player
Reds          16.6, 2.8 per player (Mike Leake 9.9)
Rockies      23.6, 3.9 per player (Arenado 10.2)
Royals          6.8, 1.0 per player
Tigers          -1.8, -0.6 per player
Twins          12.7, 3.2 per player (Brian Dozier 10.9)
White Sox    0.2, 0.0 per player

So the Astros are 8th highest, not a bad draft

[Duman]

I think that if you get a Keuchel and JD, along with Hernandez, that's a successful draft.  I'm not sure why that is considered "softening the blow" just because they were later round picks.  An interesting analysis is to add the WAR (or similar type measure) of all the players drafted by each team.  I'd be surprised if the Astros 2009 draft, generally thought to be poor, didn't finish in the top half or higher, at least in the last year.

It is softening the blow because you if you do your draft correctly, you should get your best players early not later.  You can chose to take several views of how this draft worked out. 

1. The Astros were better at scouting college players than HS players in that draft.
2. They got lucky and got some late round bargains. And they were unlucky with injuries with some of their top picks.

[Duman]

Finally, to compare this draft to other Astros drafts:
2010    0.7, 0.2 per player (DeShields 0.
2008   7.0, 2.3 per player (Castro 8.1)
2007  -2.3, -0.8 per player (all the players who made it weren't signed)
2006   5.2, 1.7 per player (Norris 4.7)
2005   4.5, 1.1 per player (Barnes 2.7)
2004  66.4, 11.1 per player (Pence 26.8, Zobrist 36.3)
2003   11.9, 1.5 per player (Stubbs 8.9 - didn't sign)
2002   6.5, 1.3 per player (Feldman7.6 didn't sign)
2001   0.5, 0.1 per player (eight players made it - Matt Albers 2.8 is highest)
2000  27.1, 3.4 per player (Bourne 22.9 didn't sign)

[Reuben]

Great info and interesting discussion. Small nit - I would count the players with negative WAR as a 0. They should not detract from the guys who had success in MLB; after all, even a below-"replacement"-level major-leaguer helped the team in some way - mopping up innings, filling in for an injured player, etc. And that's better than a draft pick who washes out in A-ball.

[Duman]

I agree. The O's 09 draft where no players have made the majors is worse than any team with a neg WAR.

Looking at WAR simply assesses the teams ability to ID  MLB talent. Very little can be drawn from a development standpoint. For example the 04 draft looks great but the Astros saw none of Zobrist WAR and he was traded away for very little WAR value gained.  He also blossomed after he left the Astros.


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[pots]

It is softening the blow because you if you do your draft correctly, you should get your best players early not later.  You can chose to take several views of how this draft worked out. 

1. The Astros were better at scouting college players than HS players in that draft.
2. They got lucky and got some late round bargains. And they were unlucky with injuries with some of their top picks.

Not sure lucky is the right word.  You scout all the players you draft.  Certainly Keuchel is not a lucky pick.  Stevenson was all over him.  The only place I think you can use lucky is if you drafted an injured guy and really have no idea if he'll regain his form.  Like say Armstrong.  Or maybe if someone fell down to you for signability reasons like McCullers.  Mengden is a bit lucky.  He was battling a back injury, was really hard to tell how he was going to turn out. 

[Knoxbanedoodle]

I agree. The O's 09 draft where no players have made the majors is worse than any team with a neg WAR.

Looking at WAR simply assesses the teams ability to ID  MLB talent. Very little can be drawn from a development standpoint. For example the 04 draft looks great but the Astros saw none of Zobrist WAR and he was traded away for very little WAR value gained.  He also blossomed after he left the Astros.


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IIRC, Zobrist hit and got on base at every level in our minor league system. Who came over in that deal?

[Nate Colbert]

IIRC, Zobrist hit and got on base at every level in our minor league system. Who came over in that deal?

Huff.

[Duman]

I contend luck is exactly the right word.  The chances of a player making it to the majors decrease by each round. 

One study ( Matt Garretioch) broke it down by round & by pre-draft experience:

1st round college draftee has an almost 80% chance of making it to the majors.
1st round HS draftee has a 74% chance of making it to the majors
1st round JC draftee has just a 33% chance of making it to the majors (small sample size issue)

8th round College draftee has just a 25% chance of making it to the majors

So if you draft a college pitcher in the 8th round that becomes an ace, you have struck gold.  Yes you did your homework but according to this report, the chances of an 8th round college pick becoming an occasional all star or better was about 4%.  You can't say that is all skill.  There is a good amount of luck involved in getting that type of return from that draft slot.  (even just the luck that he fell that far and everyone else missed on him)

[jbm]

There is a reason some clubs hit more frequently than other clubs in the later rounds.  I doubt it's random chance.     

[Duman]

IIRC, Zobrist hit and got on base at every level in our minor league system. Who came over in that deal?

July 12, 2006: Traded by the Houston Astros with Mitch Talbot to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for Aubrey Huff and cash. (Huff played in 68 games .250/.341/.478 - he was granted free agency, signed with Baltimore and did well for them).

He had done well in our minor system (better than I had remembered) but had only reached AA at 25 (getting old to be a prospect).  TB put him at AAA immediately and he was in the majors later in the 06 season.  He struggled there for a few years bouncing between AAA & MLB before becoming a full time guy and an all star in 09.

[Duman]

There is a reason some clubs hit more frequently than other clubs in the later rounds.  I doubt it's random chance.     

I agree.  Show me the evidence that the Astros were one of those clubs in 2009?

[jbm]

Look at your first post: two above average contributors in the later rounds.  If I knew that they never scouted them and pulled their names out of a hat, then I would subscribe to the luck theory. 

[Duman]

Finally, to compare this draft to other Astros drafts:
2010    0.7, 0.2 per player (DeShields 0.
2008   7.0, 2.3 per player (Castro 8.1)
2007  -2.3, -0.8 per player (all the players who made it weren't signed)
2006   5.2, 1.7 per player (Norris 4.7)
2005   4.5, 1.1 per player (Barnes 2.7)
2004  66.4, 11.1 per player (Pence 26.8, Zobrist 36.3)
2003   11.9, 1.5 per player (Stubbs 8.9 - didn't sign)
2002   6.5, 1.3 per player (Feldman7.6 didn't sign)
2001   0.5, 0.1 per player (eight players made it - Matt Albers 2.8 is highest)
2000  27.1, 3.4 per player (Bourne 22.9 didn't sign)

Do any of these drafts make you think that the Astros excelled at drafting contributing players late in the draft? 

Before the 09 draft, the last time a player drafted & signed after the 8th round made it to the majors was 2004 - that year 4 ended up at least getting a cup of coffee (Patton 9th but signed for 2nd round $, Reineke #13, Sutton #15 and Towles #20.  Prior to that they had some good years with late round picks.  The fact that you saw none in the years before and none so far in the years after leads me to believe you can't just chalk it up to scouting and hard work.  I believe they scout and work hard every year.

[jbm]

What does 2000 draft, or the different people involved in that draft, have to do with the 2009 draft?  For that matter, what does one year have to do with another.  Even within the tenure of the same GM, teams presumably change their approach over time: who they employ as scouts, crosscheckers, how that info is compiled and analyzed, how they make decisions on draft day, etc. 

A somewhat more defensible assertion, if one is predisposed towards a randomness/luck philosophy, is to compare the Wade/Heck drafts solely.  In that respect, 2010 might turn out to be damn good, supporting an assertion that they had started to adapt over time, and were reasonably proficient at identifying and selecting talent.

[Duman]

You said:

There is a reason some clubs hit more frequently than other clubs in the later rounds.

I am still waiting for evidence that supports that the Astros of 2009 were not just one hit wonders but were a club that "hits more frequently than other clubs"

I contend they were not.  I contend they scouted and drafted HS kids who didn't work out.  They scouted college kids later that exceeded their expectations (otherwise, they wouldn't have drafted them that late).  They got lucky that these guys exceed expectations of where they were drafted and have made a otherwise rough draft look good. 

[jbm]

We are speaking in circles.  To me, the proof is in the pudding and It makes no sense to presuppose anything deeper than the success of your choices.  You see it differently. 

Also, I think you are confusing my reply about clubs that hit more frequently.  That was a reply to your assertion that all later round successes are purely luck, which you supported by statistics of the average.  Successes of the particular (choose whatever club you feel is better than average throughout the draft) should not be confused with successes of the average.  Using your logic, I could average the success of all 1-1s and then claim luck or unluck to any team whose pick exceeded or fell below that average.  That would be absurd. 

I do buy into Reuben's idea of injury being a form of luck, but other than that, a team's track record speaks for itself.  It's a corollary of Parcell's observation: you are what your record says you are.

[Duman]

Go back and read my post- I said "good amount of luck." Never said purely luck.

I have been following the Astros drafts for years.  The later round success of 2009 does not fit the track record post Hunsucker.  I chalk it up to "Blind squirrel finds nut". The squirrel was working hard but it didn't find the nut because of it's skill. 

I would contend there is some luck involved in any draft selection.  The further down the draft board you go, the greater the luck grows.