Top Prospect Lists 2015

[Nate Colbert]

BA first up with theirs (rank on last year's list):

• Correa (#1)
• Appel (#3)
• Folty (#4)
• VV (#6)
• Feliz (#9)
• Phillips (#30)
• Moran (NR - #2 on Marlins list)
• Ruiz (#11)
• Teoscar (#16)
• Hader (#14)

[roadrunner]

BA first up with theirs:

• Correa
• Appel
• Folty
• VV
• Feliz
• Phillips
• Moran
• Ruiz
• Teoscar
• Hader

That article mentions the Nix grievance.  Is that actually still in play?

[Jacksonian]

That article mentions the Nix grievance.  Is that actually still in play?

Yes.

[Ebby Calvin]

BA first up with theirs (rank on last year's list):

• Moran (NR - #2 on Marlins list)

I wonder if this says more about the depth of the Marlins/Astros farm systems or if Moran has regressed in their eyes.

[Nate Colbert]

I wonder if this says more about the depth of the Marlins/Astros farm systems or if Moran has regressed in their eyes.

More the former than the latter.

[juliogotay]

More the former than the latter.

Santana has conspicuously slipped on the list despite having a productive year. Maybe just Phillips and Teoscar having more tools?

[roadrunner]

Yes.

Any idea when that will be resolved?

[Duman]

Phillips with a big jump this year.  From #30 last year to #6 this year. 

Last year's list for those like me with short memories:

1. SS Carlos Correa
2. OF George Springer
3. RHP Mark Appel
4. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
5. RHP Lance McCullers
6. RHP Vincent Velasquez
7. 1B Jon Singleton
8. OF Domingo Santana
9. RHP Michael Feliz
10. RHP Asher Wojciechowski

McCullers is also notably absent from the list this year.  I wonder how far down the list he and Santana are.  I would expect both would still be 11-15 range guys.

[Mike S.]

Curious where Fisher and Reed rank.  Would also think 11-15 range?

[Nate Colbert]

Curious where Fisher and Reed rank.  Would also think 11-15 range?

I would think those two plus Davis all would fit in to those slots.

[Reuben]

I would think those two plus Davis all would fit in to those slots.

I feel like I say something like this every year, but you know you've got a great farm system when Lance McCullers - a guy with a 70 fastball and 70 curve - doesn't make your Top 10.

From the Top 10 Chat Vincent Lara-Cinisomo did today, it sounds like McCullers, Fisher, Reed, Davis, and maybe Kemp were all "close" to making the Top 10. Of Santana, he said:

"I think another year has to help. The problem is he looked so overmatched in the majors, he probably needs another Triple-A stint just to rebuild the confidence. But yes, scouts I spoke to were surprised how he was beaten by even good velocity, let alone premium. More troubling was how low his energy was and the lack of discipline he showed."

...
"I was stunned about the scouts’ evaluations of Santana, who at 22 was very young for Triple-A and did well, but he did not show well, beyond the obvious stats."

...
"Teoscar has zipped by him. Hernandez has a similar skill set and better makeup, and that goes a long way."

He also had some surprisingly effusive things to say about Conrad Gregor, although he described him as a below-average 1B.

[jbm]

I'd be surprised if those pitches really grade out that high. Maybe the curve flashes that occasionally. I doubt the FB ever does.

[Reuben]

I'd be surprised if those pitches really grade out that high. Maybe the curve flashes that occasionally. I doubt the FB ever does.

? Are we talking about the same guy, and the same 20-80 scale? LMC throws in the high 90s, and his curve has been described as one of the best in the minors.

[jbm]

Same guy, but must be different idea of the scale, but my conception of the scale might be badly off.

In my mind, a 70 grade pitch is basically at the far end of the distribution curve.  It's a pitch most average batters might know is coming, but still can't handle.  In other words, not common at all.

How many 70 pitches were on last year's MLB staff?  I can only think of one: McHugh's curve.  I might be forgetting others, but it's been a few months. So, having two 70 pitches, with one being a fastball, would put one in the upper tier of MLB pitchers, not middling in high A ball.

[Reuben]

Same guy, but must be different idea of the scale, but my conception of the scale might be badly off.

In my mind, a 70 grade pitch is basically at the far end of the distribution curve.  It's a pitch most average batters might know is coming, but still can't handle.  In other words, not common at all.

How many 70 pitches were on last year's MLB staff?  I can only think of one: McHugh's curve.  I might be forgetting others, but it's been a few months. So, having two 70 pitches, with one being a fastball, would put one in the upper tier of MLB pitchers, not middling in high A ball.

Yeah, his numbers in Lancaster were disappointing, but a) it's Lancaster, b) he was 20 years old, and c) he still allowed less than a hit per inning (barely) and K'd 10.7 per 9 IP. Here's what BA said about him a year ago, when he was the Astros' #5:

McCullers has two potential 70 pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale. He fires a 93-98 mph fastball that sometimes he struggles to keep in the zone because of its excellent life. His breaking ball can be described as either a curveball or slider, but either way it has 11-to-5 downward movement. At 81-85 mph it's harder than the average curveball. He's equally effective against lefties and righties because of the power and bite on his breaking ball. Scouts wonder if McCullers will wind up in the bullpen, because his changeup is well below average now. He throws it because he knows he has to develop it, but it lacks deception, separation or movement.

Callis/Mayo at mlb still rate him 6th in the Astros system, and grade his FB 70, curve 65, change 45, control 45. Their current take on him:

McCullers... succeeds thanks to his excellent fastball-curveball combination. His fastball sits in the mid-to-upper 90s, with good movement. McCullers' breaking ball has different shapes and sizes, but the best ones look like hard late curveballs.

The rest of McCullers' game isn't as advanced as those two pitches, but it shows promise. Though he has improved his changeup as a professional, he still has work to do on the pitch and he needs to tighten his command. Some scouts still feel McCullers is best suited for a role in short relief like his father, but there is growing sentiment that he can make it as a starter.

So basically, what's holding him back, in the eyes of most scouts, is his lack of control, experience, and a good 3rd pitch. Nobody seems to doubt that his FB and curve are top-notch, or that he's an excellent prospect overall (mlb rated him #76 overall).

[jbm]

Those are potential grades.  Prospect touts like those you mention really need to tighten up their language, imo.  Their sloppiness makes the language meaningless and therefore virtually unusable in conveying information.

For example, how can someone have a 70 fastball and 45 control?  Command, or the less demanding idea of control, of the fastball is integral to how it plays, or what kind of weapon it is for a pitcher.  If you don't have even major league average control, then you have little command, and a fastball that is rarely commanded is hardly an elite, or near elite pitch.

In sum, the touts should always use present/projected grades, and be careful when projecting a high percentage of prospect pitches as elite. Just my opinion.  Rant over.

[pots]

Same guy, but must be different idea of the scale, but my conception of the scale might be badly off.

In my mind, a 70 grade pitch is basically at the far end of the distribution curve.  It's a pitch most average batters might know is coming, but still can't handle.  In other words, not common at all.

How many 70 pitches were on last year's MLB staff?  I can only think of one: McHugh's curve.  I might be forgetting others, but it's been a few months. So, having two 70 pitches, with one being a fastball, would put one in the upper tier of MLB pitchers, not middling in high A ball.

Folty has an 80 fastball.   The rating is how good the pitch is, control is counted separately.  In some ways they are tied together in other ways they are not.  A 98 mph fastball down the middle is about as effective as a 88 mph fastball on the corner.  But control can be worked on and you can't add 10 mph to your fastball.  So it makes sense to keep them separate.   And you rather have a prospect with a 70 fastball, 65 curveball and 45 control than one with a 45 fastball, 45 curveball, and 70 control.  Not that they can't find a way to make it on mostly control, it is just that the first player might be an ace and the second one an innings eater

[jbm]

Folty doesn't have an 80 fastball.  One day, he might have a 70 fastball, but he doesn't even have that at this point.  If ratings/grades are to mean anything, they must convey usefulness on a MLB diamond.  Putting a gun on a fastball and acting like it is any more than a number on a screen is superficial, and doesn't fully convey how good the pitch is. 

If I am a GM, looking to acquire a player, I need information on how effective that player is, will likely be, or possibly might be.  I can't survive with measures saying a FB is generationally elite, then put the guy on the mound and watch that elite fastball regularly get squared. 

[Reuben]

In any case, the original point stands. A guy like McCullers not even making the org Top 10 (though mlb.com obviously disagrees significantly, and probably others do) means the system is in great shape. And the fact that a lot of the top guys now will be or at least could be in AA or higher in 2015 is certainly encouraging.

[Reuben]

Folty doesn't have an 80 fastball.  One day, he might have a 70 fastball, but he doesn't even have that at this point.  If ratings/grades are to mean anything, they must convey usefulness on a MLB diamond.  Putting a gun on a fastball and acting like it is any more than a number on a screen is superficial, and doesn't fully convey how good the pitch is. 

If I am a GM, looking to acquire a player, I need information on how effective that player is, will likely be, or possibly might be.  I can't survive with measures saying a FB is generationally elite, then put the guy on the mound and watch that elite fastball regularly get squared. 

Good god man, let it go. No one thinks that these prospect rating systems are talking about a prospect's current MLB-level skills. If that were the case they'd need to go a lot lower than 20 for Rookie-ball players. They are all entirely about future, projectable, ability. And like Pots said, they rate control separate from each individual pitch.

[jbm]

So, was Folty's fastball an 80 the day before he came to Houston, or the day after?  I'm just advocating rigor into the discussion.  Not sure why that bothers you. 

[astrosfan76]

Folty doesn't have an 80 fastball.  One day, he might have a 70 fastball, but he doesn't even have that at this point.  If ratings/grades are to mean anything, they must convey usefulness on a MLB diamond.  Putting a gun on a fastball and acting like it is any more than a number on a screen is superficial, and doesn't fully convey how good the pitch is. 

If I am a GM, looking to acquire a player, I need information on how effective that player is, will likely be, or possibly might be.  I can't survive with measures saying a FB is generationally elite, then put the guy on the mound and watch that elite fastball regularly get squared. 

To be fair, they (BA/MLB.com) do put present and future grades on players in their handbook/lists. Looking at prospects, what good is to judge them based just on where they are currently? Tools "arrive" at different rates: power and command being the last to show up in games. That's why Correa can get a 65 power grade, though he's never come close to that in games, yet.

I think that what you're wanting is command/control being scrapped entirely as separate tools and incorporated as part of the package for each pitch. That's fine, and all, but for a quick-look format, it's easier to see that a player has this kind of velocity/movement/bite on a pitch (pitch grade), but has command problems (separate tool), than to explain all of that in one grade.

I really wouldn't think a GM would find himself in a position where he's only relying on a few scouting grades to make a decision. If so, shame on him and shame on his scouts.

[jbm]

To be fair, they (BA/MLB.com) do put present and future grades on players in their handbook/lists.

And if every person also did this, I would have never commented. 

[VirtualBob]

...  Putting a gun on a fastball grade on a pitch and acting like it is any more than a number on a screen is superficial, and doesn't fully convey how good the pitch is. ... 

FIFY

[Nate Colbert]

I don't recall seeing this when it came out but this is Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs take on Astros prospect rankings (obviously this was done before recent transactions):

1. Correa
2. Appel
3. VV
4. Moran
5. Ruiz
6. McCullers
7. Folty
8. Phillips
9. Santana
10. Teoscar
11. Tropeano
12. Fisher
13. Reed
14. Hader
15. Feliz
16. Fontana
17. Davis
18. Tucker
19. Stassi
20. Emanuel
21. Thurman
22. Musgrove
23. Kemp
24. Rodgers
25. DDS
26. Torreyes

[VirtualBob]

I don't recall seeing this when it came out but this is Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs take on Astros prospect rankings (obviously this was done before recent transactions):

1. Correa
2. Appel
3. VV
4. Moran
5. Ruiz
6. McCullers
7. Folty
8. Phillips
9. Santana
10. Teoscar
11. Tropeano
12. Fisher
13. Reed
14. Hader
15. Feliz
16. Fontana
17. Davis
18. Tucker
19. Stassi
20. Emanuel
21. Thurman
22. Musgrove
23. Kemp
24. Rodgers
25. DDS
26. Torreyes

Which makes it all the more strange that Rollins was selected in the Rule 5.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Which makes it all the more strange that Rollins was selected in the Rule 5.

I guess it just goes to show that most Rule 5 picks are for roster depth, not fishing for a future franchise cornerstone.

[juliogotay]

Rollins may be polished enough to stick. The fact that he is LH increases the likelihood ( I think) as he could be a situation guy out of the pen for a year. Interesting that the Astros protected Torreyes over DDS.

[astrosfan76]

Rollins may be polished enough to stick. The fact that he is LH increases the likelihood ( I think) as he could be a situation guy out of the pen for a year. Interesting that the Astros protected Torreyes over DDS.

I get what you're saying about DDS; ceiling-wise, he has much more potential. I think it boils down to who they thought was more likely to contribute this season at the MLB level. Torreyes was successful at AAA last season and has a legitimate shot of being a good utility player this season. DDS is a guy who is basically going to hold a roster spot on the bench until he can be sent down for 2016, unless the Rangers trade for him. Really, he's at least one full season of development away from being ready for a big-league job, I don't see how hiding him in the dugout does anything other than stunt his growth as a player.

[roadrunner]

The depth in the org seems so ridiculous.  Didn't Gregor have a big year last year?  He didn't even crack this list.

The next few years should be fun to watch these guys coming up.

[Reuben]

I'm surprised to see Feliz, DDS, JD Davis, and Kemp rate so low, and to see Emanuel, Thurman, and Rodgers rate so high despite very down seasons (and in Rodgers' case, two seasons).

I'd almost forgotten about Telvin Nash. A quick glance at his OBP and SLG% - .330 and .484 - and 22 HR in just 84 games in Corpus look quite intriguing... but then you notice the .227 AVG and 112 K in 273 ABs. Still, while it seems like he's been around forever, he won't turn 24 until Spring Training and could feasibly be ready for AAA - or, as ready as he's gonna be. I love this line from the article: one scout suggest Nash as a 100 PA call-up to run into some homers before the league figures him out (and then send him back down).

[juliogotay]

I'm surprised to see Feliz, DDS, JD Davis, and Kemp rate so low, and to see Emanuel, Thurman, and Rodgers rate so high despite very down seasons (and in Rodgers' case, two seasons).

I'd almost forgotten about Telvin Nash. A quick glance at his OBP and SLG% - .330 and .484 - and 22 HR in just 84 games in Corpus look quite intriguing... but then you notice the .227 AVG and 112 K in 273 ABs. Still, while it seems like he's been around forever, he won't turn 24 until Spring Training and could feasibly be ready for AAA - or, as ready as he's gonna be. I love this line from the article: one scout suggest Nash as a 100 PA call-up to run into some homers before the league figures him out (and then send him back down).

Nash=Carter?

One thing that strikes me about the top 25 (I've eliminated Tropeano from the discussion) is that it is heavier towards position players than pitchers. I would prefer to see a better balance especially since Luhnow has been dealing from pitching as a stated strength. Of course I'm probably just nit-picking since it's the off-season and there is nothing else to complain about.

[astrosfan76]

Nash=Carter?

One thing that strikes me about the top 25 (I've eliminated Tropeano from the discussion) is that it is heavier towards position players than pitchers. I would prefer to see a better balance especially since Luhnow has been dealing from pitching as a stated strength. Of course I'm probably just nit-picking since it's the off-season and there is nothing else to complain about.

Carter was a much better hitter as a farmhand. He was a career .283 hitter in the minors and was a guy who would strike out once in every four AB. After destroying AA in '09 to a tune of .337/.435/.576 at 22 (119K in 593 AB), he was ranked as high as #11 (BP) or #28 (BA) in the minors. I wish Nash could be as big of a deal as Carter was.

The ironic thing is that the drafts under Luhnow have felt heavier in pitching. I know they grabbed Reed, Fisher, and Davis early in last year's draft, but overall, it seems like they have put a premium on stocking up on pitching. Largely, I think this a by-product of the types of pitchers they have targeted. When you go after college pitchers who don't have huge stuff, you may end up with a bunch of guys who fill out the back-end of a top-20 list in a good system. I think that is where we are. That doesn't mean that we don't have several pitchers who could viable options in a MLB rotation, they may just be more #4/#5 types. Of course, if 2014's draft had turned out differently, we may be having a different discussion.

[Mike S.]

I've read it as part of the old adage you can never have enough pitching.  Perhaps that's being too simplistic?

[astrosfan76]

Bernie Pleskoff, from MLB.com, posted his top 10 list for the minors, with Correa coming in at #2. He has Bryant at #1 and Buxton at #3, for reference. Those three will probably be in some order on most of the lists that come out. I don't anticipate Correa sitting at #1 on many, but I can see him at #2 on several lists. Pleskoff did consider Correa for the top spot and knocked Buxton for his inability to stay healthy, so far, also stating that he doubts he can live up to the lofty expectations many have placed on him. He still thinks he'll be a star, but not the perennial MVP candidate that others predict.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/104792060/bernie-pleskoffs-picks-top-10-prospects

[juliogotay]

Bernie Pleskoff, from MLB.com, posted his top 10 list for the minors, with Correa coming in at #2. He has Bryant at #1 and Buxton at #3, for reference. Those three will probably be in some order on most of the lists that come out. I don't anticipate Correa sitting at #1 on many, but I can see him at #2 on several lists. Pleskoff did consider Correa for the top spot and knocked Buxton for his inability to stay healthy, so far, also stating that he doubts he can live up to the lofty expectations many have placed on him. He still thinks he'll be a star, but not the perennial MVP candidate that others predict.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/104792060/bernie-pleskoffs-picks-top-10-prospects

Interesting in that there aren't many OFers on that list.

[astrosfan76]

Interesting in that there aren't many OFers on that list.

Yeah, you could make a case that Bryant will be in the outfield before long, especially if the Cubs hold on to all of Castro, Baez, Almora, Russell, and Bryant (or even three of the five). But, there doesn't seem to be overwhelming amount of talent in the minors in the outfield, right now (though, I don't keep up with prospects as much as I used to).

I also found it interesting that the list had four SS. I don't know a lot about Seager, but it sounds like he could move off shortstop. Even if he does, you're still left with three legitimate MLB shortstops in the top five, though. That's pretty impressive.

[Nate Colbert]

MLB Pipeline has been publishing their top 10 prospect lists by position. A.J. Reed comes in at #5 on the top 1B list.

Not terribly surprising but Mark Appel was not on the Top 10 RHP list published a couple of days ago. If that somehow causes you angst, Jonathan Mayo did have this to say in today's mailbag:

Appel didn't fall too far out of the top 10, a sign of our belief in his overall stuff. Though he righted the ship with a strong Arizona Fall League performance, his struggles in 2014 made us have just enough pause to knock him down just a touch.

Carlos Rodon was #2 on the Top 10 LHP list.

[Nate Colbert]

John Sickels begins work on his Astros top prospects list.

With 4 catchers on the list, I would have expected Roberto Pena to be one of them. Other names you might argue should be on there (may have been on his list of 60 before cutdown): Joe Sclafani, Jason Martin, Mitch Lambson, Tyson Perez. Also, newly-acquired Akeem Bostick (Sickels had him rated #13 on his Rangers list last year in a talent-laden system).

Apparently Sickels likes 80s music.

[MusicMan]

John Sickels begins work on his Astros top prospects list.

With 4 catchers on the list, I would have expected Roberto Pena to be one of them. Other names you might argue should be on there (may have been on his list of 60 before cutdown): Joe Sclafani, Jason Martin, Mitch Lambson, Tyson Perez. Also, newly-acquired Akeem Bostick (Sickels had him rated #13 on his Rangers list last year in a talent-laden system).

Apparently Sickels likes 80s music.

Sickels has posted his top 20

[Nate Colbert]

MLB Pipeline has been publishing their top 10 prospect lists by position. A.J. Reed comes in at #5 on the top 1B list.

2B list was posted yesterday--Tony Kemp wasn't in the Top 10 but was one of two players in the "Next Up" section.

3B list posted today had Colin Moran listed at #9 (Rio Ruiz was #10).

[Duman]

Crawfish boxes just posted the first of their top 30 pod casts.  I think it is in three segments.  One of the things I like is they actually hold themselves accountable for where they placed guys last year and talk about what changed that dropped a guy from 28 to 107 (M P Cokinos). 

One of the guys who is talking lives in the So. Cal area and sees several Lancaster games.  Another is a physical therapist and is very good at breaking down mechanics.  He also has some pretty good inside connections as well.  I enjoy this podcast every year.  It gives a good overview of some of the top players in the system. 

[MusicMan]

Correa tops mlb.com's SS list.  By the way, there are a TON of high-ceiling SS's coming up.

[astrosfan76]

Correa tops mlb.com's SS list.  By the way, there are a TON of high-ceiling SS's coming up.

Not that this is a revelation, but the kid could be special.  That's Berkman-level hitting from an above-average fielding shortstop. 

[Nate in IA]

Having got to see that 'kid' play in person, he is definitely something special.   Men amongst boys type special.   He is very fluid in his fielding, made every play I saw with a couple of spectacular plays thrown in.   Has great plate discipline and never tries to do too much with the bat.   We'll see how his growth and training this winter have helped.   I pray we get to see this guy play SS for the Astros for a long time...

[Reuben]

Not that this is a revelation, but the kid could be special.  That's Berkman-level hitting from an above-average fielding shortstop. 

Whoa now, pump the brakes just a tad there. Not many batters at any position ever reach "Berkman-level" heights offensively. I think that's a bit much to expect from Correa. Not that my own expectations for him are particularly conservative either.

[Jacksonian]

Whoa now, pump the brakes just a tad there. Not many batters at any position ever reach "Berkman-level" heights offensively. I think that's a bit much to expect from Correa. Not that my own expectations for him are particularly conservative either.

Age-comparative, last season for him was remarkably Berkman-level like.

[Reuben]

Age-comparative, last season for him was remarkably Berkman-level like.

interesting. Though I'll bet Altuve's season at that age was even better.

[Jacksonian]

interesting. Though I'll bet Altuve's season at that age was even better.

A tick less power (his second highest season slg) and 2 levels lower but very similar slash line.

[astrosfan76]

Whoa now, pump the brakes just a tad there. Not many batters at any position ever reach "Berkman-level" heights offensively. I think that's a bit much to expect from Correa. Not that my own expectations for him are particularly conservative either.

I'm going off the grades they gave him:  70 hitter with 65 power, those are Berkman-esque tools.  That doesn't mean I'm saying he'll put up Berkman numbers annually, but that's the kind of talent implied with those grades. 

[pots]

In comaprison to Berkman's scouting reports at age 21 out of Rice, only one had Berkman's future power at 75 and another at 65.  The rest were 60 and lower.  Hitting wise he was predicted 55-65.  So Correa's grades are higher than Berkman's at a similar age



Some of the scouts really had no faith in him

[astrosfan76]

Thanks for posting that, I had forgotten about that database. Luckily, the most-optimistic of the scouts was Ralph Bratton, and that he had the chance to pitch for his guy in the draft.

[Nate Colbert]

Apologies if already posted: on K. Law's 2015 top 100 prospects list, Astros had five players: #3 Correa, #44 Appel, #56 VV, #73 Moran, #76 Phillips. Had 7 players on last year's list: #4 Correa, #11 Appel, #19 Springer, #70 Folty, #78 Singleton, #80 DDJ, #82 VV. Folty (#47) also showed up on this year's list as did Rio Ruiz (#93).

I believe MLB.com publishes their Top 100 Prospect list tomorrow.

[Nate Colbert]

4 guys on the MLB.com Top 100 list: #3 Correa, #30 Appel, #71 Domingo Santana, #86 VV. In a tweet, Jim Callis said Moran fell in the 101-105 range and threw in the now exceedingly familiar comment "scouts not sold on power or D".

From a separate article:

Beyond the Pirates with their MLB-best seven representatives in the Top 100, the Twins and Cubs each boast six. The Rangers, Mets, Royals, D-backs and Red Sox claim five players on the list. Four teams placed just one player among the Top 100: the Brewers, Cardinals, Tigers and World Series champion Giants.

[astrosfan76]

MLB.com also rated Correa as the best hitter among the Top 100. Appel was "in the running" with his slider, behind Rodon, as was still-a-prospect Folty with his fastball (behind Giolito). In a mailbag, Callis admitted that Correa may still be underrated, noting:

As I noted on the MLB Network broadcast, Correa might be underrated, which seems silly to say about someone who went first overall in the 2012 Draft and currently ranks No. 3 on the Top 100. But he doesn't get included in the Buxton vs. Bryant debate as to baseball's best prospects as much as he should, and Correa is even better than we realized on Draft Day three years ago. He has more pure hitting ability and a better chance to stay at shortstop than anticipated.
Correa also should grow into big-time power as he gets stronger and more experienced, so those Rodriguez and Tulowitzki comparisons aren't outlandish. Correa is a big-bodied shortstop capable of providing at least solid defense at the position while contending for batting titles and possibly home run titles. He's a special player.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/108160444/pipeline-inbox-carlos-correa-still-may-be-underrated-at-shortstop
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/107759988/jim-callis-best-tools-of-top-100-prospects-list

[Nate Colbert]

BP released their Astros Top 10 list today:

1. Carlos Correa
2. Mark Appel
3. Vincent Velasquez
4. Brett Phillips
5. Derek Fisher
6. Michael Feliz
7. Lance McCullers
8. Domingo Santana
9. Colin Moran
10. Teoscar Hernandez

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Wow.  I guess the 2014 draft worked out pretty well after all.

I hope they focus on pitching and up the middle guys this year.

[astrosfan76]

Wow.  I guess the 2014 draft worked out pretty well after all.

I hope they focus on pitching and up the middle guys this year.

I was surprised to see Fisher that high, also.  I like him, but that's the highest I've seen him on a list.  I like Reed and Davis, also.

You could have your wish at the top of the draft, looking at this early mock by Callis & Mayo.  All of the players in their top 10 fall into those categories, with two shortstops (Brendan Rodgers and Danby Swanson from Vanderbilt), pitchers from both sides of the mound (HS and college), and a toolsy CF (Daz Cameron). 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/103053582/2015-mock-draft-callis-mayo-call-top-10

[Duman]

Crawfish Boxes have posted a composite spreadsheet of all the rankings.  Composite top 10 is as follows:

Correa
Appell
Velasquez
Moran
Phillips
Feliz
McCullers
Santana
Hernandez
Fisher

[Nate Colbert]

4 guys on the MLB.com Top 100 list: #3 Correa, #30 Appel, #71 Domingo Santana, #86 VV. In a tweet, Jim Callis said Moran fell in the 101-105 range and threw in the now exceedingly familiar comment "scouts not sold on power or D".

There was a supplemental list published of the top 20 prospects who didn't make the Top 100 list. In addition to Moran, Michael Feliz and Brett Phillips made that list. So the Astros ended up with seven of the top 120 prospects as rated by MLB.com. Tied the Pirates, Cubs and Red Sox for most by any organization.

[astrosfan76]

BP published their list today, with Correa again at #3.  In a twist, though they have Bryant at #5, with Addison Russell going #2.  Maybe there's more in the paid content, and I'm sure they'll field questions in their chat this evening, but Correa out-tooled Russell in every tool except running; Russell had a 5, which apparently was the cut-off since Correa's run wasn't listed.  It wasn't that they tied in categories and the run tool was the tie-breaker, but Correa was a full grade better with the arm and 1/2 grade better in the hit, power, and fielding tools.  Russell missed about half the season, also, due to hamstring issues.  I guess the one significant difference is that Russell played at AA, while Correa was at High-A, otherwise I don't get it.   

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25538

[juliogotay]

The Twins are really loaded with top prospects.

[Nate Colbert]

Callis discusses Brett Phillips, ranking him as his #1 "sleeper".

Good read.

[Nate Colbert]

My BA Prospect Handbook is apparently still sitting in an Amazon warehouse, but piecing together bits and pieces I've seen from around the web this is their 11-31 Astros rankings:

11. Lance McCullers, RHP
12. Domingo Santana, OF
13. Derek Fisher, OF
14. Preston Tucker, OF
15. J.D. Davis, 3B
16. A.J. Reed, 1B
17. Francis Martes, RHP
18. Tony Kemp, 2B/OF
19. Joe Musgrove, RHP
20. Max Stassi, C
21. Adrian Houser, RHP
22. Brady Rodgers, RHP
23. Roberto Peña, C
24. Ronald Torreyes, 2B/UTIL
25. Andrew Aplin, OF
26. Kent Emanuel, LHP
27. Jake Buchanan, RHP
28. Asher Wojciechowski, RHP
29. Andrew Thurman, RHP
30. Danry Vásquez, OF
31. Conrad Gregor, 1B

[Ebby Calvin]

My BA Prospect Handbook is apparently still sitting in an Amazon warehouse, but piecing together bits and pieces I've seen from around the web this is their 11-31 Astros rankings:

11. Lance McCullers, RHP
12. Domingo Santana, OF
13. Derek Fisher, OF
14. Preston Tucker, OF
15. J.D. Davis, 3B
16. A.J. Reed, 1B
17. Francis Martes, RHP
18. Tony Kemp, 2B/OF
19. Joe Musgrove, RHP
20. Max Stassi, C
21. Adrian Houser, RHP
22. Brady Rodgers, RHP
23. Roberto Peña, C
24. Ronald Torreyes, 2B/UTIL
25. Andrew Aplin, OF
26. Kent Emanuel, LHP
27. Jake Buchanan, RHP
28. Asher Wojciechowski, RHP
29. Andrew Thurman, RHP
30. Danry Vásquez, OF
31. Conrad Gregor, 1B

Is Pena the one with the rocket arm?

[Jacksonian]

Is Pena the one with the rocket arm?

That's him.

[Reuben]

Picked up my copy from the BA offices today. That is indeed the 11-31 order. Keep in mind this was compiled before the Gattis trade, so Folty is in the #3 spot and Ruiz #8. Based on their depth chart, Fontana, Wilson Amador, Chris Lee and Franklin Perez (the RHP they signed out of VZ last July for $1m) seem the most likely candidates to move up into the bottom of the list.

Their pick for Top 2015 Sleeper oddly didn't show up on the Depth Chart: SS/OF Osvaldo Duarte, "stocky 5-foot-9 bundle of energy has double-plus speed and hit his way to US in 2014".

[pots]

Callis discusses Brett Phillips, ranking him as his #1 "sleeper".

Good read.

Callis is late to the party here.   Law has him at #76 already.  Actually, he's not even willing to come to the party yet.  Just saying there is a good chance he could show up. 

[MusicMan]

Interesting article on speed stats vs. scouts' run tool.  Features Correa grading out much higher than scouted.

[Nate Colbert]

The very busy Kylie McDaniel of FG puts together a Top 200 list with the following junior Astros on it:

• #5 Correa
• #18 Appel
• #75 Velasquez
• #107 Phillips
• #121 Moran
• #126 McCullers
• #142+ Santana

From the chat:

The buzz on Velasquez’s medical is brutal and he finished poorly, with some speculation he was hurt in the AFL.

[Jacksonian]

The very busy Kylie McDaniel of FG puts together a Top 200 list with the following junior Astros on it:

• #5 Correa
• #18 Appel
• #75 Velasquez
• #107 Phillips
• #121 Moran
• #126 McCullers
• #142+ Santana

Swing and a miss leaving Feliz out of his top 200.

[Reuben]

The very busy Kylie McDaniel of FG puts together a Top 200 list with the following junior Astros on it:

• #5 Correa
• #18 Appel
• #75 Velasquez
• #107 Phillips
• #121 Moran
• #126 McCullers
• #142+ Santana

From the chat:

Well, Velasquez WAS hurt in the AFL - strained his lat. I'm assuming he's alluding to a different injury, but that and the vague " brutal medical" comment seem in need of explanation.

[Duman]

Well, Velasquez WAS hurt in the AFL - strained his lat. I'm assuming he's alluding to a different injury, but that and the vague " brutal medical" comment seem in need of explanation.

He also missed a season with TJ shortly after he was drafted.

[jaklewein]

He also missed a season with TJ shortly after he was drafted.

I know its not the same first name...nor is the last name the same, but you have to wonder if they're getting Vince mixed up with Derick. 

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/update/24963945/astros-prospect-derick-velazquez-undergoes-tommy-john-surgery

[Nate Colbert]

BA came out with their Top 100 Prospects list today. Only Correa and Appel on the list. In the Ask BA page, they list 15 guys who just missed plus 98 more players (if I counted right) who merited consideration including several Astros which are reflected below. So summing up:

Correa:

• BA #4
• BP #3
• ESPN #3
• FG #5
• MLB.com #3

Appel:

• BA #31
• BP #35
• ESPN #44
• FG #18
• MLB.com #30

VV:

• BA #116-213
• BP #75
• ESPN #56
• FG #75
• MLB.com #86

Moran:

• BA #116-213
• BP #NR
• ESPN #73
• FG #121
• MLB.com #101-120

Phillips:

• BA #101-115
• BP #NR
• ESPN #76
• FG #107
• MLB.com #101-120

Santana:

• BA #NR
• BP #NR
• ESPN #NR
• FG #142-200
• MLB.com #71

Feliz:

• BA #116-213
• BP #NR
• ESPN #NR
• FG #NR
• MLB.com #101-120

McCullers:

• BA #116-213
• BP #NR
• ESPN #NR
• FG #126
• MLB.com #NR

Hader:

• BA #116-213
• BP #NR
• ESPN #NR
• FG #NR
• MLB.com #NR

Teoscar:

• BA #116-213
• BP #NR
• ESPN #NR
• FG #NR
• MLB.com #NR

[astrosfan76]

It is rough to see the drop off from last year, but on the bright side, it isn't from regression by the players, (in most cases), but graduations and trades. At this point next year, we could have 4 in the top 50. I expect Appel to reach the majors, but not early enough to exhaust his prospect status. Correa could be in the same boat (and could be #1 on some lists, depending on graduations). Having two picks in the top 5, could get us the others; Rondon and Schwarber sit at 15 and 19 this year and Aiken surely would have topped them, if yeah. So, with those players and guys like Phillips proving themselves at higher levels, we should have more prospects on these lists next year.

[Mike S.]

Agreed.  At first glance, Nate's summary is a bit disheartening.  But, then you think about the context between those players and their respective rankings and it becomes a much different conversation.

Also, massive thanks to Mr. Colbert for his incredible output of news during the offseason.  Certainly made the Void far more tolerable on my end.

[Duman]

From the out of sight out of mind category, let's look at players we lost/traded this off season:
Folty
BA: 101-115
BP: unranked
ESPN: 47
FG: 69
MLB: 78
 

Ruiz
BA: 116-213
BP: Unranked
ESPN: 93
FG: 43
MLB: unranked


Delino DeShields Jr, nor any of the other players lost in the rule five draft were ranked at all.

[astrosfan76]

From the out of sight out of mind category, let's look at players we lost/traded this off season:
Folty
BA: 101-115
BP: unranked
ESPN: 47
FG: 69
MLB: 78
 

Ruiz
BA: 116-213
BP: Unranked
ESPN: 93
FG: 43
MLB: unranked


Delino DeShields Jr, nor any of the other players lost in the rule five draft were ranked at all.

That's kind of the quandary that the club finds itself in. It has so much depth that they are going to lose guys, but that talent has large enough ?'s that they aren't going to make a lot of lists. I honestly don't see how DDS stays on the Rangers' big-league club without killing his development. It will be a little easier for the others to stick, though neither are ready.

Where the club will see a drop-off due to losing those guys is in the org. rankings. But, that's just what happens; it's hard to have a top-5 farm system year-after-year.

[Nate Colbert]

Well, Velasquez WAS hurt in the AFL - strained his lat. I'm assuming he's alluding to a different injury, but that and the vague " brutal medical" comment seem in need of explanation.

4 months later and that lat strain is still a problem--needs another three weeks or so before able to throw.

No mention of any other injury.

[Nate Colbert]

Sickels has a Top 50 pitching prospects list:

• #15 Appel
• #33 Feliz
• #40 Hader
• #47 VV

And a Top 50 hitting prospects list:

• #2 Correa

[Reuben]

Sickels has a Top 50 pitching prospects list:

• #15 Appel
• #33 Feliz
• #40 Hader
• #47 VV

And a Top 50 hitting prospects list:

• #2 Correa

first thing that jumps out at me on the hitters list is that Buxton is only 4th. Second thing is that the Cubs have 3 of the top 5, and 4 of the top 11. Damn.

[Lefty]

Second thing is that the Cubs have 3 of the top 5, and 4 of the top 11. Damn.

Well, the Cubs must be destined for greatness.

[austro]

Well, the Cubs must be destined for greatness.

Or incredible heartbreak.

[Mr. Happy]

Or incredible heartbreak.

I vote for the latter. Ftc

[juliogotay]

Bryant has 6 HRs this spring with two yesterday.

[Reuben]

Bryant has 6 HRs this spring with two yesterday.

Well I'm sure that when the Cubs keep him in AAA for the first few weeks of the season to delay his FA clock, Olney, Gammons, Rosenthal etc. will all give them just as much shit for it as they gave the Astros for doing the same with Springer last year.

[roadrunner]

Well I'm sure that when the Cubs keep him in AAA for the first few weeks of the season to delay his FA clock, Olney, Gammons, Rosenthal etc. will all give them just as much shit for it as they gave the Astros for doing the same with Springer last year.

My sarc meter may be off, but I'm thinking it will be a "shrewd move" by the Theo team in Chicago rather than robotic overlords using players as assets like the evil empire Luhnow runs down here.

[Nate Colbert]

Sickels has a Top 50 pitching prospects list:

• #15 Appel
• #33 Feliz
• #40 Hader
• #47 VV

And a Top 50 hitting prospects list:

• #2 Correa

And now Sickels comes out with his Top 175 Prospects list ranking together both pitching and hitting prospects:

• #2 Correa
• #33 Appel
• #70 Feliz
• #85 Hader
• #95 VV
• #109 Santana
• #113 McCullers
• #129 Fisher
• #141 Phillips
• #148 Moran
• #160 Reed

And the 100 or so "in the picture" players includes:

• Davis
• Gregor
• Teoscar
• Kemp

[astrosfan76]

MLB.com has the farm system at #8. delving into the club's top 30 prospects.  Correa and Appel again sit at the top, with the usual suspects following them in some order.  The list does have some more interesting guys at the back-end, though, with some of the recent international signings making an appearance.  Brief scouting reports are available on all of the prospects.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=hou   

[Reuben]

I was surprised Domingo Santana was all the way up at #3, considering how down many scouts seem to be on him, and the plethora of qualified candidates to put ahead of him. Then again, he is still very young, and put up excellent numbers in AAA in 2014. I forgot he hit for a .296, along with the HR and RBIs. Maybe he can still learn not to flail away like a jackass every time a Major League pitcher throws a ball in the general direction of home plate.

[Ebby Calvin]

Maybe he can still learn not to flail away like a jackass every time a Major League pitcher throws a ball in the general direction of home plate.

I think we found our 2015 slogan.

[Nate Colbert]

So BA released a top 20 DSL Prospects list (subscription) the other day. The Astros had a couple of players on the list. SS Joan Mauricio has been mentioned on the website before. He started out in the DSL before being bumped to the GCL. He put up poor numbers in the latter which Ben Badler attributed to him being "gassed" by that point of the season (the Astros shut him down for instructional league so he could focus on getting physically stronger). CF Vicente Sanchez was also on the list and has also been previously mentioned. The lefty-swinging Sanchez is listed at 5'11'' 170 lbs who despite his size shows quite a bit of pop. Badler also called him an athletic CF (better than an unathletic one I'm sure) with solid-average speed and a "tick below-average" arm.

[Nate Colbert]

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB  10 minutes ago
Sent Jacob Nottingham in, should be up soon. @paulisgreat: With Ronald Torreyes traded, who do you replace him with in the @astros Top 30?

[astrosfan76]

BA with their Top 50 Mid-Season Prospect List:

#21- Brett Phillips
#39 - Mark Appel

A few quotes from their chat:

Reed was in strong consideration for the top 50 because of his strong power production...He basically hasn’t stopped hitting since. He would have been in the list if we’d gone 75 team.

Dave (New York City): Where would recent signees Alex Bregman and Carson Fulmer slot, based on their College/CWS/Draft evaluations?
John Manuel: Bregman is fascinating to me; I think he’s be in the top 30, around where Gleyber Torres ranks (28). Those guys are similar; I’d give Torres a slight edge for hitting ability with Bregman a slight defensive edge, more likely to stay at SS.

Drew (Topeka, KS): How close was A.J. Reed to cracking the top 50? Phillips, his partner in crime while in Lancaster, came in at 21, but who will ultimately be the better hitter?
J.J. Cooper: Phillips is a much, much more well-rounded player than Reed. If you said pure hit I think they are pretty similar, maybe you could give a slight edge to Reed, but Phillips will do that while providing defense in center field and running ability while Reed will do it as an adequate defensive first baseman.

And in the Correa (who was DQ'd from their list) category:

Kyle (Dallas, TX): Time for the obligatory 'what if' question - had they still been eligible, where would Correa, Buxton and Sano ranked?
John Manuel: Correa 1, Buxton 2 for me … I would have put Sano 6 or 7, would be fun to debate him vs. Schwarber.

Mark (Huntington Beach): For strickly fantasy purposes the better long term offensive player regardless of position is Correa or Seager ?
J.J. Cooper: I’ll take Correa.

Jason (Dallas): Correa or Bogaerts? And how close is it between the two?
J.J. Cooper: Give me Correa. Bogaerts is a very good young player. I’d rather have Correa than any other shortstop in the majors right now.

No one asked about Bryant, so we can't really tell if they'd revise their preseason list.  But, hey, they like him more than Buxton now.  The second question is kind of leading, as Correa has more defensive value, with the debate being that Seager had a little more offensive upside before the season.  And for the trifecta, Cooper puts Correa above all MLB shortstops, including Addison Russell, who was ranked ahead of him on some lists (including theirs). 


http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-50-prospects2015/
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-50-prospects-chat/

[Nate Colbert]

BA has also come out with an midseason update to the Astros Top 10 List. The revised list:

1. Phillips
2. Appel
3. Feliz
4. Reed
5. Martes
6. Fisher
7. Musgrove
8. Hader
9. Nottingham
10. Kemp

They also listed a "rising" prospect and a "falling" prospect, with Akeem Bostick the former and Teo Hernandez the latter.

Although the article itself is behind a paywall, among the comments it did note that Nottingham had worked with roving catching instructor Mark Bailey and had improved behind the plate to the extent that scouts now felt he would be able to stick there. Very encouraging.

[Astrofan59]

BA has also come out with an midseason update to the Astros Top 10 List. The revised list:

1. Phillips
2. Appel
3. Feliz
4. Reed
5. Martes
6. Fisher
7. Musgrove
8. Hader
9. Nottingham
10. Kemp

Really surprised to see Martes that high.  Pleased, but surprised.

[juliogotay]

Really surprised to see Martes that high.  Pleased, but surprised.

The list is a good mix. 5 pitchers, 2 OFers, a catcher, a 1b, and a guy that can play OF and 2b.

[Reuben]

BA has also come out with an midseason update to the Astros Top 10 List. The revised list:

1. Phillips
2. Appel
3. Feliz
4. Reed
5. Martes
6. Fisher
7. Musgrove
8. Hader
9. Nottingham
10. Kemp

Huh, I'll be damned. I tried to make a list just a few days ago in a TZ thread. I came up with:

Phillips
Bregman/K. Tucker/Cameron
Feliz
Appel
Nottingham
Fisher
AJ Reed
Musgrove
Kemp
Francis Martes
Hader
Moran
Gustave
JD Davis
T. Hernandez
Guduan

I dunno. Really hard to rank these guys, and I'm sure I must be forgetting somebody important (Akeem Bostick...). You could throw Eshelman and Ferrell in there somewhere too and get an even 20.

It's definitely still a system with a ton of interesting guys, particularly if you count the new draftees.

[roadrunner]

Devenski?

[Mike S.]

Still early to include someone like Daniel Mengden?

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Still early to include someone like Daniel Mengden?

Mengden's gotten knocked around a bit in Lancaster.  If he finishes the season strong there, I think he's in the top-15.

[juliogotay]

Sickel's has a mid-season Top  75 list out. No Astro before #29, Brett Phillips, but seven total of the 75. Wow. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/7/12/8940113/top-75-mlb-prospects-mid-season-update?_ga=1.239104835.1911031477.1357570501

Kemp, selected to play in the Futures Game yesterday, was not one of the seven.

[jbm]

I put little stock in prospect rankings in general and absolutely none in Sickels.  Unless things have changed, he does little more than "evaluate" minor league stats.  I have yet to see any significant insights from anyone who uses that as their primary tool.  To make matters worse, it seems to be all the rage and has become the lazy alternative to learning about things which might actually predict future performance.

Sorry to take a shit on the Sickels' list; the last week has made me grumpy.

[Mike S.]

That said, his assessment of Appel (#56) seems pretty spot on:

"Still flashes brilliance, still erratic."

[pots]

New Top 30 prospect list out on mlb.com

And your #1 is.....Bregman.  What?? How can he possibly be put in front of Phillips.  Odd. 

Then:
Phillips
Appel - his resilience on this list is impressive
Daz Cameron
Kyle Tucker
Velasquez - soon to be eliminated from eligibility, but I don't understand why he isn't top 3
Santana
Reed
Feliz
Martes
Fisher
Musgrove
Moran
Hader
Kemp
Davis
Riley Ferrell
Eshelman
Sierra
Guduan
Houser
Teocar Hernandez
Devenski
Paulino
Danry Vasquez
Wojceicowski
Rodgers
Alpin
Fontana
Bostick

[Jacksonian]

New Top 30 prospect list out on mlb.com

And your #1 is.....Bregman.  What?? How can he possibly be put in front of Phillips.  Odd. 

Then:
Phillips
Appel - his resilience on this list is impressive
Daz Cameron
Kyle Tucker
Velasquez - soon to be eliminated from eligibility, but I don't understand why he isn't top 3
Santana
Reed
Feliz
Martes
Fisher
Musgrove
Moran
Hader
Kemp
Davis
Riley Ferrell
Eshelman
Sierra
Guduan
Houser
Teocar Hernandez
Devenski
Paulino
Danry Vasquez
Wojceicowski
Rodgers
Alpin
Fontana
Bostick

I have an issue with not only items here but also some of their positional top 10's and their top 100.

[Reuben]

I have an issue with not only items here but also some of their positional top 10's and their top 100.

My initial take is I'm surprised to see Akeem Bostick way down at #30, and that Jandel Gustave didn't even make the list. But I would love to hear you expand on your comment.

[juliogotay]

Teoscar is pretty far down on that list. Is his stock dropping that much?