Next year's team

[MusicMan]

Am I wrong to think that, with a few tweaks, this team could be a wild card contender next year?

Move #1:
Astros send Dexter Fowler and Brett Oberholtzer to the Boston Red Sox for Garin Cecchini and Burke Badenhop.

Move #2:
Astros sign Luke Gregerson to a 2 year, $14M contract

Move #3:
Astros sign Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda as their "splash" signing, with Jim Crane announcing that the resolution of the CSNH situation allows this flexibility.

2015
C  -  Castro
1b -  Singleton
2b -  Altuve
3b -  Cecchini
SS - Gonzalez/Correa (mid-season call-up)
LF  - Grossman
CF - Marisnick
RF - Springer
DH - Carter
Bench: Corporan/Stassi, insert veteran 1b signing here, Dominguez, Presley/Santana

SP:
1. Keuchel
2. McHugh
3. Maeda
4. Feldman
5. Tropeano

BP:
Qualls, Gregerson, Folty, Badenhop, Sipp, and Fields

That's easily a plus-.500 team.  Possibly a playoff contender.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Does Cacchini have enough pop to be a #3 hitter?  Looks like he's an OBP improvement over Dominguez, but if you just need someone to keep the hot corner warm for Moran, why get a youngster and not a 1 year contract on a servicable vet?

[MusicMan]

Does Cacchini have enough pop to be a #3 hitter?  Looks like he's an OBP improvement over Dominguez, but if you just need someone to keep the hot corner warm for Moran, why get a youngster and not a 1 year contract on a servicable vet?

I've seen him viewed as a .300/20 HR guy, and I'm not convinced Moran will be that.  Plus you're getting Badenhop, who is a plus reliever.

[Jacksonian]

Am I wrong to think that, with a few tweaks, this team could be a wild card contender next year?

Move #1:
Astros send Dexter Fowler and Brett Oberholtzer to the Boston Red Sox for Garin Cecchini and Burke Badenhop.

Move #2:
Astros sign Luke Gregerson to a 2 year, $14M contract

Move #3:
Astros sign Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda as their "splash" signing, with Jim Crane announcing that the resolution of the CSNH situation allows this flexibility.

2015
C  -  Castro
1b -  Singleton
2b -  Altuve
3b -  Cecchini
SS - Gonzalez/Correa (mid-season call-up)
LF  - Grossman
CF - Marisnick
RF - Springer
DH - Carter
Bench: Corporan/Stassi, insert veteran 1b signing here, Dominguez, Presley/Santana

SP:
1. Keuchel
2. McHugh
3. Maeda
4. Feldman
5. Tropeano

BP:
Qualls, Gregerson, Folty, Badenhop, Sipp, and Fields

That's easily a plus-.500 team.  Possibly a playoff contender.

Alright Todd, what have you done with MM?

[HudsonHawk]

Just me, but I'd be wanting to replace Grossman.

[NeilT]

Just me, but I'd be wanting to replace Grossman.

Is Grossman an offensive place-holder until Correa comes up?

[HudsonHawk]

Is Grossman an offensive place-holder until Correa comes up?

Not unless you plan to move Correa to LF.

[Jacksonian]

Just me, but I'd be wanting to replace Grossman.

I agree and think an outfield of Marisnick, Fowler, and Springer would be pretty good.

The offense needs Singleton to be a hitter and a replacement for Dominguez.

[jbm]

I have no idea why people want to ditch Fowler.  He more than adequately fills one of the three outfield spots.  Grossman has shown improvement, but enough to be a starting corner outfielder on a good team?  Marisnick certainly has potential, but his bat is pretty empty.

[JimR]

I have no idea why people want to ditch Fowler.  He more than adequately fills one of the three outfield spots.  Grossman has shown improvement, but enough to be a starting corner outfielder on a good team?  Marisnick certainly has potential, but his bat is pretty empty.

I agree with this re Fowler.

[NeilT]

I have no idea why people want to ditch Fowler.  He more than adequately fills one of the three outfield spots.  Grossman has shown improvement, but enough to be a starting corner outfielder on a good team?  Marisnick certainly has potential, but his bat is pretty empty.

Fowler's excellent.

[David in Jackson]

Who becomes a free agent after the 2014 season?

[HudsonHawk]

Who becomes a free agent after the 2014 season?

Jesse Crain.  I believe everyone else is under club control, with options on Jose Veras and Matt Albers.

[Bench]

Jesse Crain.  I believe everyone else is under club control, with options on Jose Veras and Matt Albers.

Damn. Just when Crain was about to get healthy.

[HudsonHawk]

Damn. Just when Crain was about to get healthy.

Yes, the Astros will have spent a cool $6MM (10% of the club payroll) on Crain and Albers without either of them ever throwing a pitch.

[JimR]

Yes, the Astros will have spent a cool $6MM (10% of the club payroll) on Crain and Albers without either of them ever throwing a pitch.

Albers pitched.

[juliogotay]

I have no idea why people want to ditch Fowler.  He more than adequately fills one of the three outfield spots.  Grossman has shown improvement, but enough to be a starting corner outfielder on a good team?  Marisnick certainly has potential, but his bat is pretty empty.

Marisnick looks like a guy that may become a hitter, at least develop some power. He's still learning. Tucker may be ready for LF by June.

[HudsonHawk]

Albers pitched.

Oops, you're right.  I had Crain on the brain and was thinking of them both as the same, but Albers has made several appearances. 

[Jacksonian]

Oops, you're right.  I had Crain on the brain and was thinking of them both as the same, but Albers has made several appearances. 

10 innings worth.

[Jacksonian]

Marisnick looks like a guy that may become a hitter, at least develop some power. He's still learning. Tucker may be ready for LF by June.

His minor league work was pretty good.  He showed some pop but didn't walk that much.  He may end up resembling Fowler a bit as a major league hitter.

Tucker remains behind Santana still.

[MusicMan]

I have no idea why people want to ditch Fowler.  He more than adequately fills one of the three outfield spots.  Grossman has shown improvement, but enough to be a starting corner outfielder on a good team?  Marisnick certainly has potential, but his bat is pretty empty.

Because he only has one year of club control left, and is an asset at the team's deepest position organizationally.  I'd hate to see him go, but I think he fetches the most to fill other spots without suffering a too-dramatic drop off to the next man up.

[juliogotay]

10 innings worth.

And, for the most part, looked pretty good. He would be a good "addition" to the pen next year if healthy.

[juliogotay]

His minor league work was pretty good.  He showed some pop but didn't walk that much.  He may end up resembling Fowler a bit as a major league hitter.

Tucker remains behind Santana still.

I totally forgot about Santana.

[Jacksonian]

I totally forgot about Santana.

I still feel the breezes.

[Jacksonian]

Because he only has one year of club control left, and is an asset at the team's deepest position organizationally.  I'd hate to see him go, but I think he fetches the most to fill other spots without suffering a too-dramatic drop off to the next man up.

I'm still in favor of keeping him.  There is outfield depth but with the offensive uncertainties (which Castro is the major leaguer? can Singleton hit in the majors? can they find a 3b who can hit? who plays ss? they don't appear to be sold on Marwin and Villar hasn't proven he can hit much less field consistently. Can Springer stay healthy?) after this season I'd rather have that veteran bat in the lineup.

[Dark Star]

To contend for a wild card, they will have to clilmb over/past at least one team ahead of them in the division, I assume.

Which team (OAK? ANA? SEA?) is going to decline enough in one year for that to happen? Leaving out for the moment Texas will also certainly be improved in 2015, I am assuming (again.)

[ValpoCory]

To contend for a wild card, they will have to clilmb over/past at least one team ahead of them in the division, I assume.

You don't have to assume that.  A 4th place team cannot make the playoffs, at least not next year.

[drew corleone]

make =/= contend.

[Navin R Johnson]

Altuve, Fowler, Springer, Carter and hopefully Singleton make up a solid core in the lineup.  I'd think they need some more offense from either 3rd or LF.  SS, I'd be happy to just plug in a veteran the Astros could depend to play above average defense.

I think where this team ends up is gonna depend on Springer being healthy and Singelton turning into a viable ML 1st sacker.

Depending on what they add to the bullpen too, it seems like posting a winning record next year is in play.   If the Astros were 74-72 right now, they'd be 6 games out of the wildcard in the AL....If they hadn't been forced to move, 1 out in the NL.

[Fredia]

dont get me wrong i love the optimism. but didnt the astros just win one against the nl this year

[subnuclear]

Altuve, Fowler, Springer, Carter and hopefully Singleton make up a solid core in the lineup.  I'd think they need some more offense from either 3rd or LF.  SS, I'd be happy to just plug in a veteran the Astros could depend to play above average defense.

I think where this team ends up is gonna depend on Springer being healthy and Singelton turning into a viable ML 1st sacker.

Depending on what they add to the bullpen too, it seems like posting a winning record next year is in play.   If the Astros were 74-72 right now, they'd be 6 games out of the wildcard in the AL....If they hadn't been forced to move, 1 out in the NL.

Maybe it will be on TV too.

[mrpink]

....If they hadn't been forced to move, 1 out in the NL.

If they hadn't been forced to move they likely wouldn't have Carter at least and who knows what other changes.

[roadrunner]

I did this in my head a few weeks ago.  My version signed Stephen Drew to play SS and Ervin Santana as a SP.

[Navin R Johnson]

If they hadn't been forced to move they likely wouldn't have Carter at least and who knows what other changes.

Carter would have played 1st or LF. 

[Reuben]

The bottom line is they have gotten awful hitting from 1B and LF, generally the 2 easiest positions to get decent offense from, and 3B, less easy but still typically counted on for run production. If they can turn those spots in the order from huge minuses to pluses or at least something approaching decent, and find 2-3 more good relievers in addition to Qualls, Fields, Sipp and whoever else (Folty, or will he start next year?), then it's not hard to picture this team being decent.

Of course, one could question whether Keuchel and McHugh will be able to replicate their excellent numbers next year, but all in all the rotation looks to be in decent shape.

FWIW, I hope they keep Fowler too (and bat him leadoff, where he belongs, for God's sake).

[MusicMan]

I think where this team ends up is gonna depend on Springer being healthy and Singelton turning into a viable ML 1st sacker.

I think this nails it.

[Nate Colbert]

I believe everyone else is under club control, with options on Jose Veras and Matt Albers.

I'm pretty sure Veras is a FA--the option for 2015 (which would have paid him $5.5MM) was bought out when the Cubs released him.

Wouldn't mind seeing the Astros bring him back next year. Actually had a pretty decent year, at least since he came off the DL while still with the Cubs: 2.38 ERA in 34 IP with 27 H allowed and 39/12 K/W.

[NeilT]

Don't forget the bullpen.  consistency there remains the easiest place to pick up wins.

[Nate Colbert]

John Manuel of BA profiles Moran (some of this has been mentioned before about him):

The not so good: low energy, lumbering ("a legitimate 20 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale"), awkward, walk rate as a pro has plummeted as pitchers "attacked his inside-out, handsy swing".

The good: good hands, "good enough instincts and reactions to handle third base, along with a very accurate, above-average arm".

If you want to play the comp game <rolls eyes> and despite what seems like a lot more negatives than positives, Manuel throws out Dave Magadan and Kyle Seager.   

[roadrunner]

The bottom line is they have gotten awful hitting from 1B and LF, generally the 2 easiest positions to get decent offense from, and 3B, less easy but still typically counted on for run production. If they can turn those spots in the order from huge minuses to pluses or at least something approaching decent, and find 2-3 more good relievers in addition to Qualls, Fields, Sipp and whoever else (Folty, or will he start next year?), then it's not hard to picture this team being decent.

Of course, one could question whether Keuchel and McHugh will be able to replicate their excellent numbers next year, but all in all the rotation looks to be in decent shape.

FWIW, I hope they keep Fowler too (and bat him leadoff, where he belongs, for God's sake).

I would be confident betting on one of Keuchel or McHugh falling off next season, but maybe I'm just a pessimist.

[NeilT]

Somehow a confident pessimist seems wrong.

[Mr. Happy]

Somehow a confident pessimist named Roadrunner seems wrong.

[Aussie Astro]

I would be confident betting on one of Keuchel or McHugh falling off next season, but maybe I'm just a pessimist.

Have you always been a pessimist or just since you became an Astros fan?

[HudsonHawk]

I would be confident betting on one of Keuchel or McHugh falling off next season, but maybe I'm just a pessimist.

What about their pitching makes you think this year's performance has been a fluke?

[NeilT]

What about their pitching makes you think this year's performance has been a fluke?

Actually, the answer to that would make a fine trailer to a B-movie:  "IT CAME FROM NOWHERE, IT LEFT NOTHING BEHIND BUT DESPAIR!"

Not to say that's what's gonna happen, but we've kind of been primed for failure. 

[Reuben]

What about their pitching makes you think this year's performance has been a fluke?

Not roadrunner, but speaking for myself (since I'm the one who initially wondered if one or both might fall off), just the fact that they were relatively unknown before this year, particularly McHugh. So I just wonder if hitters might make some adjustments. Not saying either guy will/could revert to their previous form, just that they both had truly exceptional seasons and it will be tough to match that going forward.

[VirtualBob]

Not roadrunner, but speaking for myself (since I'm the one who initially wondered if one or both might fall off), just the fact that they were relatively unknown before this year, particularly McHugh. So I just wonder if hitters might make some adjustments. Not saying either guy will/could revert to their previous form, just that they both had truly exceptional seasons and it will be tough to match that going forward.

Keuchel was not unknown over at the bus stop.  He continues to exceed expectations, and when that is the pattern over a number of years, it calls into question the expectations themselves.  He's probably not the ace in any real MLB rotation, but he is a very solid #3.  I don't know that much about McHugh, but I will choose to be optimistic.

[Jacksonian]

Keuchel was not unknown over at the bus stop.  He continues to exceed expectations, and when that is the pattern over a number of years, it calls into question the expectations themselves.  He's probably not the ace in any real MLB rotation, but he is a very solid #3.  I don't know that much about McHugh, but I will choose to be optimistic.

McHugh's minor league work was quite good.  He had very limited major league experience before coming to Houston.  He made adjustments and now his major league work looks a bit like his minor league work.

[Jacksonian]

Keuchel was not unknown over at the bus stop.  He continues to exceed expectations, and when that is the pattern over a number of years, it calls into question the expectations themselves.  He's probably not the ace in any real MLB rotation, but he is a very solid #3.  I don't know that much about McHugh, but I will choose to be optimistic.

As long as Keuchel can locate his stuff well enough, he'll continue to generate enough groundballs to end innings.

[jbm]

Yeah, neither one of them is doing it with mirrors.  The likelihood of their dropoff would be similar to any other pitcher, imo.

[geezerdonk]

Is Altuve having a career year? Will he be able to play at this level for the next few years or will he drop back to his pre-2014 performance? Can Carter duplicate his 2014 second half next year? If yes for both players, it could mean a swing of 20 games or so.

[Nate Colbert]

Move #1:
Astros send Dexter Fowler and Brett Oberholtzer to the Boston Red Sox for Garin Cecchini and Burke Badenhop.

(1) Isn't Badenhop a FA at the end of this season? Why/how would the Astros be trading for him???

(2) Major questions as to whether Cecchini can stick at 3B. The fact the Red Sox began playing him some out in LF this year at Pawtucket seems to suggest what Ben Cherington & Co. currently think of his defensive prowess at the hot corner (and given the struggles of Will Middlebrooks they need a 3B unless they're planning on shifting Bogaerts to the position). A little digging would have seen the concerns about his defense which are noted here, here and here.

To recap: a starting outfielder (who many people would want to keep) plus a starting pitcher for a free agent and a prospect with major defensive issues at the position you're trying to fill. An all-time classic, sir. We salute you!

BTW, you might want to refer to this in the future.

[juliogotay]

Is Altuve having a career year? Will he be able to play at this level for the next few years or will he drop back to his pre-2014 performance? Can Carter duplicate his 2014 second half next year? If yes for both players, it could mean a swing of 20 games or so.

As much as we love Altuve it would be silly to think that this is anything but a career year. I hope he goes out and proves me wrong for the next ten years.
Carter could be just breaking out and should be able to maintain a semblance of these last couple of months if he doesn't go back to old habits.

[Navin R Johnson]

As much as we love Altuve it would be silly to think that this is anything but a career year. I hope he goes out and proves me wrong for the next ten years.

Maybe Altuve doesn't hit .340 next year, but I don't see him dropping off a bunch.  The little guys has simply hit no matter where he has played.  In the minors he hit .327 over 4 seasons, despite always playing at levels were he was on average 2 years younger than his teammates. 

I'd expect him to hit 300+ for the foreseeable future, especially if the team keeps getting players to put around him.

[Reuben]

Keuchel was not unknown over at the bus stop. 

Hunh. The "bus stop"? What's that?

I was referring to him being relatively unknown to Major League hitters/teams, not Astros fans. And hasn't he been using a different slider this year? Hitters may eventually find a way to pick that up better, or lay off the low ones better.

[JimR]

Hunh. The "bus stop"? What's that?

are you serious?

[Nate Colbert]

are you serious?

Adjust your sarc meter.

[MusicMan]

(1) Isn't Badenhop a FA at the end of this season? Why/how would the Astros be trading for him???

I thought he still had a year of arb left.

(2) Major questions as to whether Cecchini can stick at 3B.

These same questions exist for Moran.

The fact the Red Sox began playing him some out in LF this year at Pawtucket seems to suggest what Ben Cherington & Co. currently think of his defensive prowess at the hot corner (and given the struggles of Will Middlebrooks they need a 3B unless they're planning on shifting Bogaerts to the position).

Or, given that Bogaerts continues to play 3b and they went to find Drew again for SS, maybe they thing Xander's future is at 3b?

To recap: a starting outfielder (who many people would want to keep) plus a starting pitcher for a free agent and a prospect with major defensive issues at the position you're trying to fill. An all-time classic, sir. We salute you!

You and the mouse in your pocket are quite welcome, even if you do come off quite the asshole in this post.

[Nate Colbert]

Asshole? This board is all about shooting down dumb trade ideas (which usually come from clarks) and generally not in the politest of terms. If you want to make me the asshole because you're the target, then I say pull on your big boy pants and stop whining.

[Lefty]

I would be confident betting on one of Keuchel or McHugh falling off next season, but maybe I'm just a pessimist.

And you have to assume that Fowler will play only 120 or so games

[HudsonHawk]

Asshole? This board is all about shooting down dumb trade ideas (which usually come from clarks) and generally not in the politest of terms. If you want to make me the asshole because you're the target, then I say pull on your big boy pants and stop whining.

I don't think trading Fowler is a dumb idea, I just don't understand why people are so anxious to do it.  I'd look to replace another outfielder (see Grossman, Robbie) before I'd look to replace Fowler.

[VirtualBob]

As long as Keuchel can locate his stuff well enough, he'll continue to generate enough groundballs to end innings.

Exactly.

[roadrunner]

I have no reason to believe either Keuchel or McHugh will drop off other than it's tough for a lot of pitchers to put together back to back good seasons, and it's harder to expect it with two relatively unknown breakout guys like them. 

Of course maybe I'm just conditioned to losing teams since 07 and these are the kind of things that happen to losing teams.  If this team is going to be contending next year then I guess these guys would be a reason why. 

All of that said, I'm optimistic about next year and am expecting a season right around .500.

[Dark Star]

I have no reason to believe either Keuchel or McHugh will drop off other than it's tough for a lot of pitchers to put together back to back good seasons, and it's harder to expect it with two relatively unknown breakout guys like them. 

Of course maybe I'm just conditioned to losing teams since 07 and these are the kind of things that happen to losing teams.  If this team is going to be contending next year then I guess these guys would be a reason why. 

All of that said, I'm optimistic about next year and am expecting a season right around .500.

Be careful.

1.) Mister Happy thinks you are a pessimist, and he is - or at least used to be - one of the darker characters to ever inhabit this place. It's like Jean-Paul Sartre calling you a miserable, suffering bastard.

2.) Bearing losing teams since '07 has been tough, but don't let it condition you to losing. The best way to enjoy watching baseball and following a team is to be ever hopeful, even ridiculously so.  I am not pulling old man bullshit on you, but like some others, I have been following this team since the 1960s. And it has lost a lot more than it has won. But, speaking for myself, I never have felt conditioned to it.

Drink a beer, smoke a doobie, hit the crack pipe one more time - whatever. Then tune in the game on the TV (if you can get it on TV, that is), and be ever hopeful.

[subnuclear]

The Astros were 86-75 in 2008, so only losing teams since 2009.

[toddthebod]

I agree with this re Fowler.

Totally agree on Fowler.  I would not get rid of him.

[chuck]

Totally agree on Fowler.  I would not get rid of him.

Not even as a piece of a seventeen-player, three-team trade?

I guess all of us inevitably fade towards conventionality as we drift into our middle age.

[David in Jackson]

As much as we've a big step forward this year, I think the team faces big questions in three of four infield positions for next year:

1b. Singleton has been a disaster.  He was clearly rushed and not ready to be a major league regular this season.  There are some positive signs and he may well become a quality starter with power, but he's a big risk to put out there for 150 games in 2015. Guzman (who?) is history.
2b. Altuve - he's got this.
SS. What to do?  Villar continues to be erratic.  Marwin is a capable utility guy.  Petit is good organizational depth.  But who starts?  A one-year placeholder before Correa?
3b. I thought Dominguez would take a step forward this year and he went backward.  What is his future?  Is Moran a possibility for 2015?

In the OF, you've got to like Springer and Fowler.  Grossman and Marisnick and Presley have all been good, but the team could really benefit from one big bat in LF.

Thoughts?

[jbm]

It's no secret Singleton has disappointed, but I'd still bet heavily that he will be an average to well above average first baseman. 

I also question the general conclusion that if a player struggles, it means he was brought up too early.  For some, the initial struggles seem like dues that need to be paid and spending further time in AAA isn't getting those dues paid.  That's my hope at least. 

[David in Jackson]

I hope you're right and I've certainly not given up on Singleton.  I just see some risk in assuming he will be a solid contributor as an everyday 1b in 2015.  He will be watched closely in Kissimmee in 2015.

[jbm]

I agree.  He is certainly an evaluation/decision the front office must make.

[Reuben]

I agree.  He is certainly an evaluation/decision the front office must make.

Yeah, I'm starting to wonder if he might benefit from starting back in AAA next year to find himself again and maybe regain some confidence. The perpetual swinging out of his shoes when it is clearly not working for him is baffling to me. Maybe they're giving Carter all these starts at 1B in part to see if signing a stop-gap/reclamation project DH is an option until Singleton gets straightened out.

As for SS, I see no reason why Marwin can't be the starter next year, unless/until Villar has a miraculous breakthrough (it looked like he had back in early May...).

I really thought Dominguez would build on his very nice 2nd half from last year. His season has been a real bummer. Maybe they sign some scrap-heap 3B to compete with him in ST.

I wouldn't want them to sign another LF; I'm curious to see what Marisnick can do next year. His ABs have looked a whole lot better lately.

[NeilT]

I don't think next year's team will be a win-now team, and I think you will see a combination of Villar and Marwin at SS next year, with the position slotted for Correa in 2016.  That's pretty early for Correa, but there you are.  I've liked how Marisnick has settled in as the season progressed, and I thought Carter and Springer and Singleton were the big bats? You want more?

Dominguez is a disappointment this season.  It'll be interesting to watch both Dominguez and Singleton in spring training.

[BudGirl]

I'm taking a page from Jim's "be patient" book.  I think Singleton will get it. 

[roadrunner]

I'd be surprised if Luhnow doesn't sign a vet SS as a stop-gap until Correa is ready.

[mrpink]

Has anyone heard if Singleton plans to play winter ball?

[Bench]

I'd be surprised if Luhnow doesn't sign a vet SS as a stop-gap until Correa is ready.

Lowrie?

[Reuben]

I'd be surprised if Luhnow doesn't sign a vet SS as a stop-gap until Correa is ready.

Not that everyone has to agree with me, but what exactly do you not like about giving the job to Marwin? He's hit .273/.321/.394 this year, with 14 doubles and 6 HR in 306 trips to the plate. If you project that out to full-time duty you're talking about a very good defensive SS, switch-hitter, with the potential to rack up 30 doubles and 10-15 HR. And he'll be 26 years old next year.

Sure, his success with the bat this year could be a fluke... or maybe he's turned a corner and can even improve a little more. His last full season in the minors, in 2011, he hit .288/.343/.400, with 30 doubles, in 124 games split evenly between AA and AAA. So it's not completely unprecedented. If you believe his bat can be adequate for a SS, then the only real flaw I can see is he's not as fast a baserunner as you expect from that type of player.

Edit: and here's MLBTR's list of free agent SS:
Mike Aviles (34) – $3.5MM club option with a $250k buyout
Clint Barmes (36)
Asdrubal Cabrera (29)
Stephen Drew (32)
Rafael Furcal (37)
J.J. Hardy (32)
Jed Lowrie (31)
John McDonald (40)
Nick Punto (37) – $2.75MM club/vesting option with a $250K buyout
Hanley Ramirez (31)

Hardy, Lowrie, and Hanley are appealing, but are all likely to get big long deals I'd imagine.

[austro]

Not that everyone has to agree with me, but what exactly do you not like about giving the job to Marwin? He's hit .273/.321/.394 this year, with 14 doubles and 6 HR in 306 trips to the plate. If you project that out to full-time duty you're talking about a very good defensive SS, switch-hitter, with the potential to rack up 30 doubles and 10-15 HR. And he'll be 26 years old next year.

Sure, his success with the bat this year could be a fluke... or maybe he's turned a corner and can even improve a little more. His last full season in the minors, in 2011, he hit .288/.343/.400, with 30 doubles, in 124 games split evenly between AA and AAA. So it's not completely unprecedented. If you believe his bat can be adequate for a SS, then the only real flaw I can see is he's not as fast a baserunner as you expect from that type of player.

Edit: and here's MLBTR's list of free agent SS:
Mike Aviles (34) – $3.5MM club option with a $250k buyout
Clint Barmes (36)
Asdrubal Cabrera (29)
Stephen Drew (32)
Rafael Furcal (37)
J.J. Hardy (32)
Jed Lowrie (31)
John McDonald (40)
Nick Punto (37) – $2.75MM club/vesting option with a $250K buyout
Hanley Ramirez (31)

Hardy, Lowrie, and Hanley are appealing, but are all likely to get big long deals I'd imagine.

I wouldn't touch Ramirez with a 10-foot pole. That's some bad locker room juju, not what we need with a young team. I think you could do a lot worse than Marwin. I'm more curious about the catcher spot: if my catcher is going to hit .220 with little power, I want a lot better defense out of him.

[roadrunner]

Not that everyone has to agree with me, but what exactly do you not like about giving the job to Marwin? He's hit .273/.321/.394 this year, with 14 doubles and 6 HR in 306 trips to the plate. If you project that out to full-time duty you're talking about a very good defensive SS, switch-hitter, with the potential to rack up 30 doubles and 10-15 HR. And he'll be 26 years old next year.

Sure, his success with the bat this year could be a fluke... or maybe he's turned a corner and can even improve a little more. His last full season in the minors, in 2011, he hit .288/.343/.400, with 30 doubles, in 124 games split evenly between AA and AAA. So it's not completely unprecedented. If you believe his bat can be adequate for a SS, then the only real flaw I can see is he's not as fast a baserunner as you expect from that type of player.

Edit: and here's MLBTR's list of free agent SS:
Mike Aviles (34) – $3.5MM club option with a $250k buyout
Clint Barmes (36)
Asdrubal Cabrera (29)
Stephen Drew (32)
Rafael Furcal (37)
J.J. Hardy (32)
Jed Lowrie (31)
John McDonald (40)
Nick Punto (37) – $2.75MM club/vesting option with a $250K buyout
Hanley Ramirez (31)

Hardy, Lowrie, and Hanley are appealing, but are all likely to get big long deals I'd imagine.

I don't think I would consider Marwin "very good" at SS, but I'd be okay with him.

2015 seems like a year that the FO will want this team to turn a corner.  Adding a veteran to help establish some order in the clubhouse should be a priority, whatever position that is.  I don't even know who that was supposed to be this year...I guess Feldman and the bullpen FA's that never pitched.

Hardy, Lowrie, or Drew all seem like candidates for a 3-4 year deal.  I think the Astros might be able to overpay for a 2-year deal if they were really concerned about blocking Correa.  Or Luhnow could sign one of these guys to a 3-4 year deal, give Dominguez another shot at 3b and if he isn't cutting it then bring Moran/Correa up to play 3b or move Hardy/Drew to 3b (I don't think Lowrie could play 3b). 

I would rather spend money at filling in the infield gaps with veterans rather than throw money into the never ending bullpen black hole.  If it creates problems with prospects coming up, then those are good problems to have. 

[roadrunner]

I wouldn't touch Ramirez with a 10-foot pole. That's some bad locker room juju, not what we need with a young team. I think you could do a lot worse than Marwin. I'm more curious about the catcher spot: if my catcher is going to hit .220 with little power, I want a lot better defense out of him.

I would have had no problem with the Astros taking a shot at HanRam and trying him at 3b, but I doubt he would want to come here.  He will have suitors.

Trading for a veteran catcher who is trying to get more playing time would be a good way to challenge Castro in the spring.  Not sure where Stassi fits in the long term plans.

[Jacksonian]

As much as we've a big step forward this year, I think the team faces big questions in three of four infield positions for next year:

1b. Singleton has been a disaster.  He was clearly rushed and not ready to be a major league regular this season.  There are some positive signs and he may well become a quality starter with power, but he's a big risk to put out there for 150 games in 2015. Guzman (who?) is history.
2b. Altuve - he's got this.
SS. What to do?  Villar continues to be erratic.  Marwin is a capable utility guy.  Petit is good organizational depth.  But who starts?  A one-year placeholder before Correa?
3b. I thought Dominguez would take a step forward this year and he went backward.  What is his future?  Is Moran a possibility for 2015?

In the OF, you've got to like Springer and Fowler.  Grossman and Marisnick and Presley have all been good, but the team could really benefit from one big bat in LF.

Thoughts?

If Marisnick's minor league work is any guide he should be a .280+ hitter and slug .450+ next year.

[Jacksonian]

if my catcher is going to hit .220 with little power, I want a lot better defense out of him.

Castro/Corporan relative to all other AL catchers by team are near the bottom in batting average, but they are middle of the pack in on-base percentage and slugging percentage and in the top 5 in home runs.  Castro's low batting average and strike outs have masked what appears to be an otherwise reasonable offensive season for Astros catchers compared to the offensive contributions by other AL catchers to their teams.

[HudsonHawk]

I'm more curious about the catcher spot: if my catcher is going to hit .220 with little power, I want a lot better defense out of him.

I want better defense out of him, regardless of how he hits.

[VirtualBob]

Castro/Corporan relative to all other AL catchers by team are near the bottom in batting average, but they are middle of the pack in on-base percentage and slugging percentage and in the top 5 in home runs.  Castro's low batting average and strike outs have masked what appears to be an otherwise reasonable offensive season for Astros catchers compared to the offensive contributions by other AL catchers to their teams.

That chart is misleading ... it does not compare Castro/Corporan totals to other catcher combos' totals, but only includes stats from games when they were playing catcher.  It also includes a few games of Max Stassi at a .313/.313/.375 slash line.  I am too lazy to track down all the missing data, but there are 46 "missing" ABs, mostly Castro at DH, I imagine, which include 9 hits (.196 BA) and 1 HR.  If we leave Stassi out and combine all of Castro/Corporan's stats, we get a slash line of .226/.290/.369 and 20HR, compared to the .231/.295/.375 and 19 HR in the chart.  Sorting by OPS, that would drop them from 9th (.669) to 11th (.659).  Still not terrible, but I think that by NOT including Castro's dismal performance at DH the chart does not give an accurate picture.

Edited to correct typos.

[David in Jackson]

If you had told me that Castro and Dominguez would take a step backward, SS would be unsettled, we'd get nothing out of 1b (Singleton, Guzman, Krauss), and Springer would miss the last 2-3 months, I wouldn't have thought we'd be almost 20 games better.  The big key this year was starting pitching and great seasons from Altuve and Carter.

[geezerdonk]

Castro is exceptional when it comes to handing scuffed baseballs to the umpire - very efficient - no wasted movement and he perches the ball on his fingertips giving the umpire the maximum area to grasp. I don't think that there has been a mishandled transfer this season.

[Uncle Charlie]

I hope the Astros make a big push for the young Cuban kid.  They played for Abreu last year, so maybe they'll try again this year.  MLBTR reports he has a 70 on the power scale with his drawbacks being he swings and misses a lot.

[HudsonHawk]

The big key this year was starting pitching...

This. This right here.

[Nate Colbert]

I hope the Astros make a big push for the young Cuban kid. 

I get the Cuban guys confused from time to time but you are talking Yasmani Tomas here, correct?

[juliogotay]

Luhnow says bullpen is a priority and that they will look for more starting pitching and offense from corner IF and OF. Nothing surprising there.

[Bench]

Luhnow says bullpen is a priority and that they will look for more starting pitching and offense from corner IF and OF. Nothing surprising there.

So the plan is to get better players?  He IS a genius.

[Reuben]

So the plan is to get better players?  He IS a genius.

I believe it was get better players AND try not to injure them.

[juliogotay]

So the plan is to get better players?  He IS a genius.

I thought you may like to hear where he envisions improving the club.

[David in Jackson]

The big question going forward, I think, is whether this is a small market team (like Tampa Bay) built on the farm system or whether the budget goes up (with TV deal in place, etc.) and our payroll is in the top 1/2, 1/3 fitting our market size.

[pots]

FWIW, Singleton has started slow at most levels.  I see no reason why the majors would be any different. 

[Fredia]

new plan start fast and finish faster

[NeilT]

I believe it was get better players AND try not to injure them.

AND know exactly when they're scheduled to imitate the Gas Can.

[Bench]

AJ Hinch "close to becoming" the new manager? 

[Ron Brand]

AJ Hinch "close to becoming" the new manager? 

Some interesting stuff here.

But Arizona’s young foundation appeared to underachieve last season— the team finished 82-80, two games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the pallid National League West — and a poor start to 2009 doomed Melvin, who was popular among players but less so in a front office that questioned his commitment to the club’s build-from-within philosophies. General Manager Josh Byrnes explained Hinch’s arrival by repeatedly citing his “organizational advocacy,” a euphemism for which the team was roundly mocked; Hinch’s page on the Web site Baseball-Reference.com was quickly sponsored by a Diamondbacks fan who cackled, “A J Hinch ... brimming with organizational advocacy.”

[jbm]

I see wikipedia already has him as the manager.  I have no opinion at all of him, but I doubt this move invigorates the fan base.

[Mr. Happy]

I see wikipedia already has him as the manager.  I have no opinion at all of him, but I doubt this move invigorates the fan base.

It infuriates this fan.

[NeilT]

That he was on Wikipedia, or that he was hired?

[Mr. Happy]

That he was on Wikipedia, or that he was hired?

The latter.

[Reuben]

The latter.

Why?

[Mr. Happy]

Why?

He was overmatched in Arizona.

[jbm]

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/09/29/hiring-of-hinch-gives-gm-a-rare-second-chance-to-get-it-right/#27131101=0

It's from a JDJO article, but I found this interesting:

Crane did not like the way Luhnow’s relationship with Bo Porter imploded into a very public and ugly divorce before Porter was fired this past Labor Day. Whether it was Porter or Luhnow’s fault is uncertain, but Crane sided with Luhnow. Now Luhnow is the one essentially on the clock.

“You never want to go through that,” Crane said. “It’s unfortunate. Bo’s a great guy. I wish him the best. I’m sure he’ll do well wherever he ends up, but when things aren’t running smooth sometimes a decision has to be made.

“These guys know that we’ll make decisions if we don’t feel like we’re getting the results that we want.”

I found this one disturbing:

We learned something all the time, like A.J. just said,” Luhnow said. “I want to make sure that we put A.J. in a position to be successful. And so we’re going to talk collaboratively about the staff. It’s not going to be his guys or my guys. It’s going to be the Astros’ guys.

“We’re going to go through the existing staff. We’re going to talk about potentially people that he knows, people that I know, people that neither of us know, and we’re going to figure out what’s the right way to build this thing so that we do it in a collaborative fashion.”

[Reuben]

He was overmatched in Arizona.

A lot of people probably thought Joe Torre and Bobby Cox and Tony LaRussa were overmatched in their first year as MLB managers too. Personally I can probably count the times I've thought about the Diamondbacks without taking my shoes off, so I have no opinion of Hinch, but I'm guessing you were a close observer of the team, or...?

[Lefty]

I found this one disturbing:

How is any of that disturbing?

[jbm]

This part:

its not going to be his guys...........

Just as I want the owner to let the GM hire his staff, I want the GM to let the manager hire his staff.  I don't think its at all optimal to have the manager as such a direct extension of the GM. Having real separation seems healthier.

[Mr. Happy]

A lot of people probably thought Joe Torre and Bobby Cox and Tony LaRussa were overmatched in their first year as MLB managers too. Personally I can probably count the times I've thought about the Diamondbacks without taking my shoes off, so I have no opinion of Hinch, but I'm guessing you were a close observer of the team, or...?

I did pay attention to the Snakes when he was manager because of the number of stories that kept popping up about the players' negative reactions to his managerial methods.

[NeilT]

I did pay attention to the Snakes when he was manager because of the number of stories that kept popping up about the players' negative reactions to his managerial methods.

maybe he learned something.  They picked him, he can probably fill out a lineup card and deliver it to the umpires, in my mind it's not yet time to be pissed off.

[Reuben]

maybe he learned something.  They picked him, he can probably fill out a lineup card and deliver it to the umpires, in my mind it's not yet time to be pissed off.

So he's at least better than Cecil Cooper is what you're saying.

[Mr. Happy]

maybe he learned something.  They picked him, he can probably fill out a lineup card and deliver it to the umpires, in my mind it's not yet time to be pissed off.

I'm not pissed off, but it is clear that Hinch is Luhnow's man, and I agree with Chuck that Luhnow is on the clock and that he's hitched his wagon, for better or worse, to Hinch.

[HudsonHawk]

He was overmatched in Arizona.

Well, he's in the American League now.  How hard can it be?

[roadrunner]

This part:

Just as I want the owner to let the GM hire his staff, I want the GM to let the manager hire his staff.  I don't think its at all optimal to have the manager as such a direct extension of the GM. Having real separation seems healthier.

I don't see anything wrong with the GM being an integral part of the hiring process, especially when he is trying to instill certain strategies into the players on the field.  Ideally it would all be a collaborative effort, which is what it sounds like it will be. 

The manager's role is being reduced throughout baseball, so this isn't exactly unique to the Astros.

[jbm]

The manager's role is being reduced throughout baseball, so this isn't exactly unique to the Astros.

Examples?

[Mr. Happy]

Examples?

Called shifts by the stat geeks?

[roadrunner]

Examples?

Not sure if you subscribe to BP, but here's an article talking about the types of managers being hired (young and inexperienced) and what it might mean.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22171

If your vision is that as a GM you have substantial input into roster construction and usage, you’re not really all that worried about your new manager being inexperienced there. (In fact, you may well prefer it over a manager who wants a larger amount of input than you really want to give him.) In terms of tactics, all of these men have played in the majors and so have seen everything before. And if you have strong opinions on tactics, again, it may be easier to find a manager who doesn’t and provide him with guidance. Or you can find coaches that help supplement a manager’s abilities there.

[jbm]

That article didn't support what you implied.  That article basically said "recent managerial hires show a trend to being less experienced and there needs to be a way to implement SABR knowledge/tactics on the field."  There wasn't much focus beyond that, and the article didn't give examples of successful organizations where the clubhouse was an extension of the GM, and not the domain of the manager.  

It might be a subtle difference, but IMO, communication feels more free and more productive when there are clearly separated levels of authority, and better communication produces an environment for better performance.  It might also be a difference in my conception of a manager, and what I assume is a different conception.  If you view a manager's duties to basically be filling out lineups and making in game moves, then this arrangement makes more sense.  If you view a manager's duties to bring out the most in his GM given talent, this arrangement seems sub-optimal.

But, I'm often wrong and hope the ever evolving Luhnow experiment succeeds.

[juliogotay]

This part:

Just as I want the owner to let the GM hire his staff, I want the GM to let the manager hire his staff.  I don't think its at all optimal to have the manager as such a direct extension of the GM. Having real separation seems healthier.

Whose guy was Strom? Porter's or Luhnow's? I'm not absolutely sure but I believe he was Luhnow's and that has worked out well I think. Luhnow has a vision on how to do things and you need to be true to that end and find guys that not only believe in those methods but can implement them. If it doesn't work it's all on Luhnow anyway.

[roadrunner]

That article didn't support what you implied.  That article basically said "recent managerial hires show a trend to being less experienced and there needs to be a way to implement SABR knowledge/tactics on the field."  There wasn't much focus beyond that, and the article didn't give examples of successful organizations where the clubhouse was an extension of the GM, and not the domain of the manager.  

It might be a subtle difference, but IMO, communication feels more free and more productive when there are clearly separated levels of authority, and better communication produces an environment for better performance.  It might also be a difference in my conception of a manager, and what I assume is a different conception.  If you view a manager's duties to basically be filling out lineups and making in game moves, then this arrangement makes more sense.  If you view a manager's duties to bring out the most in his GM given talent, this arrangement seems sub-optimal.

But, I'm often wrong and hope the ever evolving Luhnow experiment succeeds.

The article doesn't come out and say what I said but I think it provides some support.  I don't think it's a coincidence that these managers are being hired for their first gigs while the analytical approach in front offices continue to be ramped up across baseball.