Roy Oswalt, ultimate big-game pitcher?

[Houston]

http://www.baseballnation.com/2014/1/28/5353248/big-game-pitchers-roy-oswalt-all-time

[JimR]

obviously never heard of the Oswalt Inning

[Limey]

Oh, I thought it said "big game bitcher".

[Kit]

good for the wizard...wish they'd used a different photo tho

[Fredia]

but astros only exist in the al world sadly

[Reuben]

from the article, quoting Bill James:

1. Roy Oswalt

And no, I am not just being provocative. Gibson's won-lost record in regular-season Big Games was 36-14; Oswalt's is 37-9. Gibson's teams were 40-17; Oswalt's were 46-12. Think about it: 46-12 in Big Games. Gibson's ERA was 2.26; Oswalt's was 2.63. When you adjust for context, I suspect that Oswalt wins that one. Oswalt pitched 80 fewer innings than Gibson, but struck out almost as many batters (341 to 352) and walked half as many (73 to 144).

I have to admit, as much as Oswalt acted like a prima-donna-dickhead on his way out of town, and as disappointing as his 2005 WS start was, those are some pretty impressive numbers. I wonder, though, how James defines a "Big Game". If it's games vs. the Cincinnati Reds, of course, Roy would easily be #1.

[mrpink]

I wonder, though, how James defines a "Big Game". If it's games vs. the Cincinnati Reds, of course, Roy would easily be #1.

From Neyer's previous article:

What's a Big Game? As you might imagine, Bill's come up with a precise definition. Which takes up, as you might imagine, a whole article of its own. So I will summarize: a Big Game is a regular-season game toward the end of the season that materially affects your team's chance of reaching the postseason. Using Bill's method, roughly 8 percent of all the games since the middle 1950s were Big Games.

[Ron Brand]

I really like Bill James. I enjoy reading what he writes. He's done a colossal service to the game with his research, insights and conclusions and has sparked a massive wave of research. But sometimes, I think he's full of shit.

[Arky Vaughan]

I really like Bill James. I enjoy reading what he writes. He's done a colossal service to the game with his research, insights and conclusions and has sparked a massive wave of research. But sometimes, I think he's full of shit.

OK. Care to elaborate further in the context of this particular thread?

[Ron Brand]

OK. Care to elaborate further in the context of this particular thread?

I'm in the middle of dinner on a break from work, so I can't hit it real hard but it looks like he's putting a disproportionate weight to wins. Yes 80% is extraordinary but not being able to see through the paywall I don't know what his methodology is. If wins are the bulk of his reasoning, I'm not comfortable with that because the pitcher doesn't necessarily control that. I'd be more comfortable if he'd made the point in terms of limiting the opposition to numbers well under their established level of performance, but I can't see where he said anything along those lines.

Comparing him to Gibson by way of strikeouts and ERA doesn't work for me either because a the game is so different now from back then, markedly so in those two respects.

Just because it smells funny to me doesn't make him wrong, it's just lacking the backup I'd need to support that conclusion. That's shorthand. It just strikes me as unlikely that Oswalt is the King of Big Game pitchers given the other dominating hurlers we've seen.

What do you think?

[Arky Vaughan]

I'm in the middle of dinner on a break from work, so I can't hit it real hard but it looks like he's putting a disproportionate weight to wins. Yes 80% is extraordinary but not being able to see through the paywall I don't know what his methodology is. If wins are the bulk of his reasoning, I'm not comfortable with that because the pitcher doesn't necessarily control that. I'd be more comfortable if he'd made the point in terms of limiting the opposition to numbers well under their established level of performance, but I can't see where he said anything along those lines.

Comparing him to Gibson by way of strikeouts and ERA doesn't work for me either because a the game is so different now from back then, markedly so in those two respects.

Just because it smells funny to me doesn't make him wrong, it's just lacking the backup I'd need to support that conclusion. That's shorthand. It just strikes me as unlikely that Oswalt is the King of Big Game pitchers given the other dominating hurlers we've seen.

What do you think?

Thanks for the reply. I'd seen that he was writing the articles, but I haven't read them. I do have access to the site, though, so I will take a look.

[Limey]

What do you think?

Let go your conscious self, and stretch out with your feelings.

Of all the pitchers in MLB history, would you pick Oswalt to start?

I'm thinking no.

[subnuclear]

Let go your conscious self, and stretch out with your feelings.

Of all the pitchers in MLB history, would you pick Oswalt to start?

I'm thinking no.

I would choose 1998 Randy Johnson or 1986 Mike Scott, but 2005 NLCS game 6 is still my favorite Astros games.

[homer]

Let go your conscious self, and stretch out with your feelings.

Of all the pitchers in MLB history, would you pick Oswalt to start?

I'm thinking no.

Which would you pick to close?

[Navin R Johnson]

So basically Bill James thinks Roy Oswalt is the most "clutch" pitcher of all-time?  Interesting.

[Lefty]

Which would you pick to close?

Mitch Williams, obviously.

[Arky Vaughan]

So basically Bill James thinks Roy Oswalt is the most "clutch" pitcher of all-time?  Interesting.

That's not what the series of articles is about.

It's about defining what constitutes a "big game" in terms of the regular season then compiling the performance of the starting pitchers in all "big games" since the '50s. The "big game" definition is based on how late in the season the game was, whether the team was in a playoff race, whether the opponent was also in the race and the quality of the opponent. You're playing your division rival in September a few games ahead or behind, that's the prototypical "big game," but the definition also includes other games that you might consider "must-win" for a team in contention.

It turns out, when you look at the records of all starting pitchers since the '50s in "big games," James thinks Oswalt comes out on top, just ahead of Bob Gibson:

"And no, I am not just being provocative. Gibson’s won-lost record in regular-season Big Games was 36-14; Oswalt’s is 37-9. Gibson’s teams were 40-17; Oswalt’s were 46-12.   Think about it: 46-12 in Big Games. Gibson’s ERA was 2.26; Oswalt’s was 2.63. When you adjust for context, I suspect that Oswalt wins that one. Oswalt pitched 80 fewer innings than Gibson, but struck out almost as many batters (341 to 352) and walked half as many (73 to 144).

"In certain ways we are not as good at making myths now as we were a generation ago. The Wild Card system DOES create more Big Games, I believe, but sometimes it creates Big Games for second-place and third-place teams. The story lacks the clarity and symmetry of a pennant race; it is a harder story to tell.

"Roy Oswalt won a tremendous number of Big Games for the Astros in the mid-2000s, but when there are six pennant races to follow and two Wild Cards, things get lost in the shuffle. Oswalt’s constant drumbeat of Big Wins late in the season didn’t have the impact of Bob Gibson winning 7 games in September of ’64. But . . . just the facts. Oswalt has won 80% of his Big Games. Wow."

[Arky Vaughan]

Let go your conscious self, and stretch out with your feelings.

Of all the pitchers in MLB history, would you pick Oswalt to start?

I'm thinking no.

It's not predictive. It's looking backward. It is a factual matter that Oswalt pitched very well and won a lot of important games for the Astros in playoff races. Notwithstanding the ignominy he receives here for his big mouth, the Astros were very fortunate to have him in his prime.

[Ron Brand]

So do you agree with his methodology and his conclusion? Is W/L the driving factor?

[juliogotay]

It's not predictive. It's looking backward. It is a factual matter that Oswalt pitched very well and won a lot of important games for the Astros in playoff races. Notwithstanding the ignominy he receives here for his big mouth, the Astros were very fortunate to have him in his prime.

In discussing Roy and Berkman in these threads of late it just emphasizes what a great ride Astros fans enjoyed  from the late 90s through the mid 2000s. Yes, the Astros were  fortunate to have Roy O in his prime.

[Mr. Happy]

In discussing Roy and Berkman in these threads of late it just emphasizes what a great ride Astros fans enjoyed  from the late 90s through the mid 2000s. Yes, the Astros were  fortunate to have Roy O in his prime.

You are so right. From Bagwell to Biggio to Berkman to Oswalt, we were treated to some wonderful baseball for a long time.

[Navin R Johnson]

How is defining "big games" different then looking at "clutch" situations from batters and opining that player X is more "clutch" than player Y?

I am not trying to nitpick James' methodology, it just seemed weird coming from the godfather of SABR, since the SABR crowd considers the word clutch as blasphemy.

[subnuclear]

How is defining "big games" different then looking at "clutch" situations from batters and opining that player X is more "clutch" than player Y?

I am not trying to nitpick James' methodology, it just seemed weird coming from the godfather of SABR, since the SABR crowd considers the word clutch as blasphemy.

If you carefully defined quantitatively what 'clutch' meant and then made of list of players ordered by 'clutchiness' then that would be ok. However, 'clutch' is usually defined anecdotally or drunkenly; therefore annoying to those of us who approach life more systematically.  

With this he is likely showing that because the 'Big Game' pitchers' list is so different from what normally people think of as 'Big Game' pitchers that the label is not very meaningful.

[Navin R Johnson]

http://research.sabr.org/journals/the-statistical-mirage-of-clutch-hitting

They basically say, good hitters are good hitters and that the situation doesn't change that.  How is that different from clutch pitching?

Or

“Over the course of a game, a month, a season or a career, there is virtually no evidence that any player or group of players possesses an ability to outperform his established level of ability in clutch situations, however defined,” wrote Joe Sheehan for Baseball Prospectus, a prominent Web site devoted to the statistical analysis of the game, in 2004.

How is James' Clutch pitching any different from all the folks who have tried to define clutch hitting, only to be shot down by the likes of James?

Did Bill come up with a new magic formula?

[Ron Brand]

I'm just guessing because it's hidden, but maybe he's just looking at a phenomena, a set of similar occurrences, giving that set a title, and then looking at players who performed well in that set. Comparing multiple instances of 7+ inning performances is in no way analogous to isolated at-bats. What a batter does in five pitches can't be treated the same way as what a pitcher does over the course of a start. It'd support your 'clutch' example more if he were looking at how well the pitcher did in high leverage at bats only. James is broadening the scope far beyond that.

[astrosfan76]

Roy Oswalt, ultimate big-game agent:

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 46m

All-Star pitcher Roy Oswalt has decided to retire, and plans to work with his agent, Bob Garber. 163 wins, 102 losses.

[Ty in Tampa]

Roy Oswalt, ultimate big-game agent:

Territory: Weir, MS and surrounding metropolitan area.

[Randy Watson]

I was sitting in the Diamond Level late during the 2000 season.  Two young guys are sitting behind me with a middle aged man.  I started talking to him as he was very friendly.  Bigtime southern accent.

Turns out it was Roy O and Adam Everett.  The older man was Roy's dad.  About as country as you could be.  They were being honored during the 7th inning stretch for winning gold during the Olympics.  Both were two of the top players on that team.

I remarked that it is pretty cool to have a gold medal.  They asked if I would like to see them.  I said of course.  And asked where they were. Both of them had their gold medals in their back pockets of their jeans with the ribbons all wadded up.

[Reuben]

Great story.

edit: Too bad Roy stumbled after 2011. For a while there, it looked like both he and Lance would have really good shots at the HOF, if they could remain relatively productive into their late 30's.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Roy and Lance are signing one-day contracts in order to retire as Astros.  Nice.

[NeilT]

Roy and Lance are signing one-day contracts in order to retire as Astros.  Nice.

That is nice.

[Bench]

Roy and Lance are signing one-day contracts in order to retire as Astros.  Nice.

Roy better pitch a shut out.

[Fredia]

maybe they should sneak in a season.. counldnt be any worse

[Houston]

Underrated Roy Oswalt one of the best

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/44252/underrated-roy-oswalt-one-of-the-best

[Kit]

I've probably only seen around 10-12 games the entire history of Austin/Roundrock but I was lucky enough to see one of the greatest ever..Roy's first game in AA, a 14K? a complete game shutout..I'm sure you heard the story...they called him up from single A for a spot start.. .Roy had a 2 way ticket to send him back right after the game the word was that Nolan was at the game, and called the front office after and told them no way you can send this kid back to A ball....doesn't seem that long ago and yet   

[JimR]

I've probably only seen around 10-12 games the entire history of Austin/Roundrock but I was lucky enough to see one of the greatest ever..Roy's first game in AA, a 14K? a complete game shutout..I'm sure you heard the story...they called him up from single A for a spot start.. .Roy had a 2 way ticket to send him back right after the game the word was that Nolan was at the game, and called the front office after and told them no way you can send this kid back to A ball....doesn't seem that long ago and yet   

I broadcast that game with Capps and interviewed Roy after the game. we had Purpura in the booth during the game, and he was adamant that Roy was going back.