Almost there....alomst there....

[Foghorn]

By my calculations (and no, I won't show you the math), the Astros are about 60 days away from being interesting for the first time in years.  Not the Astros system, but the actual big league team.  In the next 60 days, I suspect the following things will happen:

(1)  Jonathan Singleton suspension will be over and he will take over at 1B for the big club after a biref stop in the minors.

(2)  Jared Cosart will be in the majors, taking a normal turn in the rotation.  (Don't give me any of that bullpen shit for Cosart.  If we have more than enough starters, sure I'll entertain the idea.  But for now, he's a starter).

(3)  George Springer takes a spot in the OF, playing everyday even if he strikeouts as often as Rick Ankiel.

(4)  Altuve makes his second straight All Star team, and continues to be amongst the league leaders in hitting.

Thats 4 players, none of which would be older than 23.5 years of age.  4 players to watch develop and grow (if you can get CSNH). 

Meanwhile, other kids in the system keep working their way up.  Domingo Santana...kid isn't even 21 yet and he's hitting 247/360/546 in AA.  He'll be ready to join the big club in about 12 months.  Nolan Fontana...he's about ready to kill the Giovanni Meier experience.  He's hitting 326/462/489 in Lancaster.  But Foggy...everyone hits well in that stadium.  You gotta take park effects into account.  Oh yeah Poindexter?  He's hitting 375/518/500 ON THE ROAD.  How about Folty?  getting the bump to AA and he's taking it in stride.  between lancaster and Corpus he's got a 2.83 ERA and 39 K's in 35 IP.  And he's only 21.5.  Give him another 12-18 months of seasoning and he'll be ready to join Cosart in 2015.  McCuellers will probably join them in 2016. 

The worst is behind us, my friends.  In 60 days it will be more fun to read the Astros box score then to read the Hooks or RiverBandits boxscore.  We are almost there!!!!

[BudGirl]

Hells Yeah!!!

[Limey]

Didn't the guy saying "Almost there..." miss the target and then get blasted to smithereens?

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

I don't know if we'll see Springer that soon.  I'd bet he'll be in OKC by then for sure, but nothing we've heard out of Luhnow indicates that they're willing to rush him, even in the measured way that they did with Altuve and Pence.

[Foghorn]

I don't know if we'll see Springer that soon.  I'd bet he'll be in OKC by then for sure, but nothing we've heard out of Luhnow indicates that they're willing to rush him, even in the measured way that they did with Altuve and Pence.

He'll be 24 in September.  Its not "rush"ing him.  I believe he's older than Altuve.  He's older than Jordan Lyles. 

[David in Jackson]

He'll be 24 in September.  Its not "rush"ing him.  I believe he's older than Altuve.  He's older than Jordan Lyles. 

OK, mabe Lyles isn't the best comp (was he rushed, or is he just not good?), but I get your point.

[Fredia]

i can remember when 24 was way to young to be an astro

[Noe]

He'll be 24 in September.  Its not "rush"ing him.  I believe he's older than Altuve.  He's older than Jordan Lyles. 

Guys who graduate college (or at least complete their college eligibility) tend to be ready for the majors a lot sooner than later. And that is typically because they are older for the leagues they are assigned to. I don't think you're too far off when it comes to Springer. In my mind, I had him, Singleton, and Cosart as September callups this year. The time table may as well be accelerated since they have nothing else to try with this current crop of 'Stros.

BTW - word I hear is Nolan Fontana is really impressive and the Houston brass are really liking this kid.

[Bench]

Here's an upbeat article about the Astros, The Joy of Tanking, that could basically be subtitled How I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb.

[Foghorn]

Guys who graduate college (or at least complete their college eligibility) tend to be ready for the majors a lot sooner than later. And that is typically because they are older for the leagues they are assigned to. I don't think you're too far off when it comes to Springer. In my mind, I had him, Singleton, and Cosart as September callups this year. The time table may as well be accelerated since they have nothing else to try with this current crop of 'Stros.

BTW - word I hear is Nolan Fontana is really impressive and the Houston brass are really liking this kid.

Springer is crushing it in CC.  Not sure what more time in the minors is going to do for him.  Same with Cosart.  Once you pass the Super 2 Arbitration cut off, theres no reason to keep them down (provided they continue to excel).

Singleton would have been my choice to win the job in spring training if not for the suspension.  Again, I don't know what we think he'll learn at OKC that he couldn't learn in Houston.  

Fontana's BB% is crazy.  He's a college kid who should be fast tracked up the system.   I would expect him to finish the year in AA.  I'd plan on him to join the big club, if all goes well, mid-season next year.  1st half of 2013 in High A.  2nd half of 2013 in AA.  1st half of 2014 in AA/AAA.  2nd half of 2014 in the majors.

[Noe]

Springer is crushing it in CC.  Not sure what more time in the minors is going to do for him.  Same with Cosart.  Once you pass the Super 2 Arbitration cut off, theres no reason to keep them down (provided they continue to excel).

Singleton would have been my choice to win the job in spring training if not for the suspension.  Again, I don't know what we think he'll learn at OKC that he couldn't learn in Houston.  

Fontana's BB% is crazy.  He's a college kid who should be fast tracked up the system.   I would expect him to finish the year in AA.  I'd plan on him to join the big club, if all goes well, mid-season next year.  1st half of 2013 in High A.  2nd half of 2013 in AA.  1st half of 2014 in AA/AAA.  2nd half of 2014 in the majors.

Gerry the Hun who had a penchant of promoting guys from AA once said "Really, after AA, they have nothing else to prove in the minors. If they are ready in AA, they are ready for the big leagues." I was always facinated with his views and then realized that AAA (once Round Rock started to play AAA ball) that indeed the level of competition wasn't better in AAA, just more guys who needed somewhere to play while waiting out a numbers game (and also some guys trying to re-invent themselves as major leaguers). For true prospects, if they are 1) young enough and 2) talented enough and 3) show they can play in AA... then the majors is not a big jump that needs to be tempered by time in AAA.

Mind you, that is prospects only. For all others, the ladder to climb is pretty much set as is.

[Noe]

BTW - what I heard on Fontana was this "Don't be surprise if he is competing for job in the majors next spring".

[Noe]

Here's an upbeat article about the Astros, The Joy of Tanking, that could basically be subtitled How I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb.

The only problem with this article is that Luhnow himself said they *are* trying to compete (the job of all major league team is to compete to win, not to tank on purpose). So this calls into question the very idea of charging fans to go see a team that has an express interest in losing to get better at the major league level.

If Luhnow says this is true, yes, we're doing this very thing... then Jim Crane just bought himself another major PR fiasco. In that he charges fans full major league prices while he knowingly endorses *losing* because they are not even trying to compete. So I take this article with a grain of salt. The outcome may be good in the long term, I do not disagree... but is it purposeful that they are losing? I think even Luhnow would say that is absolutely *not true*.

To say an organization is tanking is to say they are consorting with gamblers or being unethical to fans and the other teams in the majors. You just don't say such a thing.

[Foghorn]

The Astros have about 7 players who are currently performing very well for their league/age:

Springer
Altuve
Cosart
Santana
McCuellers
Folty
Fontana

Singleton would be added to that group based on last years stats.  And Correa is doing fairly well in low A as an 18 year old.    Ruiz is struggling.  Oh well...

If you mix in the 2013 First Pick Overall (say Appel to keep it simple) and the 2014 First Pick Overall (call him Player X), then you have a pretty solid core of players who will be ready to contribute to a winning team in 2016.  None of which will be older than 27.

C--Not sold on Castro, who will 29 in 2016.  Probably need to grab a decent somewhere, or perhaps one develops.
1B--Singleton
2B--Altuve
SS--Fontana/Correa
3B--Dominguez/Correa/Ruiz
LF--Santana
CF--Springer
RF--TBD

SP1--Appel
SP2--Cosart
SP3--McCuellars
SP4--Player X
SP5--Folty

Find a catcher, find another OFer with some pop, grow a reliever or two.  

[Foghorn]

Didn't the guy saying "Almost there..." miss the target and then get blasted to smithereens?

Yes, and thanks for catching the quote.

[Noe]

The Astros have about 7 players who are currently performing very well for their league/age:

Springer
Altuve
Cosart
Santana
McCuellers
Folty
Fontana

Singleton would be added to that group based on last years stats.  And Correa is doing fairly well in low A as an 18 year old.    Ruiz is struggling.  Oh well...

If you mix in the 2013 First Pick Overall (say Appel to keep it simple) and the 2014 First Pick Overall (call him Player X), then you have a pretty solid core of players who will be ready to contribute to a winning team in 2016.  None of which will be older than 27.

C--Not sold on Castro, who will 29 in 2016.  Probably need to grab a decent somewhere, or perhaps one develops.
1B--Singleton
2B--Altuve
SS--Fontana/Correa
3B--Dominguez/Correa/Ruiz
LF--Santana
CF--Springer
RF--TBD

SP1--Appel
SP2--Cosart
SP3--McCuellars
SP4--Player X
SP5--Folty

Find a catcher, find another OFer with some pop, grow a reliever or two.  

Here is the thing. I believe what you are saying, but for a bullpen, I would spend a little money to leverage against the pressure you're going to put on a young team that is ready to win. A while back, when Tampa Bay was ready to break loose and actually went to the World Series, the bullpen for said team was actually made up of veteran arms with a smattering of young arms. The closer was the guy who was deemed washed up in Detroit (Troy Percival) and some others who were no longer prime guys elsewhere, including Dan "Wrecking Ball" Wheeler, Chad Bradford, and Trever Miller. That gave Tampa the leisure of allowing David Price, Matt Garza, and other young *starters* to work their talented magic.

Bottomline for me: I agree with you with the caveat that winning in 2016 isn't just about what is in the Farm... it is also what they (the Astros organization) are going to be willing to spend for helping said young team win. A few veteran presence guys who know how to win sprinkled here and there will really help. I hope they (the Astros) will be ready to spend by then. Time will tell.

[pots]

The Astros have about 7 players who are currently performing very well for their league/age:

Springer
Altuve
Cosart
Santana
McCuellers
Folty
Fontana

Wojciechowski and Tropeano belong in said group

[geezerdonk]

I am thinking that Asher Woj will be right behind Cosart.

[remy]

Didn't the guy saying "Almost there..." miss the target and then get blasted to smithereens?

Cover me, Porkins.

[jbm]

The pitching in AAA may not include more top arms, but it is more advanced than AA. You can watch multiple AA games without seeing major league breaking pitches.  Not so in AAA.  

I have no idea if player X can handle the jump, but bringing some up before they are well-prepared carries risk.  

[Noe]

The pitching in AAA may not include more top arms, but it is more advanced than AA. You can watch multiple AA games without seeing major league breaking pitches.  Not so in AAA.  

I have no idea if player X can handle the jump, but bringing some up before they are well-prepared carries risk.  

Actually, that's kind of a myth. You'll see plenty of breaking pitches and off speed pitches in AA. What you will see more often in AAA is *when* those pitches might be used. IOW - a 3-2 count is usually a fastball count in AA. In AAA, not necessarily so. In the majors, it doesn't matter, if the guy trust his location and fastball... doesn't even matter if you expect it, see it, and are ready for it... he'll get you out.

But the hitter will see assortment of pitches in AA and if they can hit, they can hit. When they get to the majors, they get the added benefit (if they are good enough) to play every day and learn and also have coaches and veteran players around to help with the mental aspect. AAA, not going to happen as much.

[Randy Watson]

Great post.  Thanks.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Couldn't we realistically see DDJr in CF and Springer pushed to RF?  Or is the idea that DeShields will eventually usurp Altuve?

[Jacksonian]

The Astros have about 7 players who are currently performing very well for their league/age:

Springer
Altuve
Cosart
Santana
McCuellers
Folty
Fontana

Singleton would be added to that group based on last years stats.  And Correa is doing fairly well in low A as an 18 year old.    Ruiz is struggling.  Oh well...

If you mix in the 2013 First Pick Overall (say Appel to keep it simple) and the 2014 First Pick Overall (call him Player X), then you have a pretty solid core of players who will be ready to contribute to a winning team in 2016.  None of which will be older than 27.

C--Not sold on Castro, who will 29 in 2016.  Probably need to grab a decent somewhere, or perhaps one develops.
1B--Singleton
2B--Altuve
SS--Fontana/Correa
3B--Dominguez/Correa/Ruiz
LF--Santana
CF--Springer
RF--TBD

SP1--Appel
SP2--Cosart
SP3--McCuellars
SP4--Player X
SP5--Folty

Find a catcher, find another OFer with some pop, grow a reliever or two.  

There is at least one major league catching prospect at each of the four active minor league levels.
You've hit on one area where the Astros lack depth: outfield.  But Santana is a RF. In your scenario you need a LF, which should be easier to find.
I think you have to put the brakes on the vision of everyone below AA.  A-ball performances, good and bad, can be meaningless given that development at the cost of production is so high.
Villar and Fontana are the same age.  Fontana should be proving himself at AA by now.
There is plenty of 3,4,5 type starting pitching depth in AA and AAA; a couple have been mentioned.

[Jacksonian]

Couldn't we realistically see DDJr in CF and Springer pushed to RF?  Or is the idea that DeShields will eventually usurp Altuve?

He's got to prove he can hit.  He hasn't done that yet.  He could go either way (depending on where Springer and Altuve stand at the time) if he can make it to the bigs.

[VirtualBob]

He's got to prove he can hit.  He hasn't done that yet.  He could go either way (depending on where Springer and Altuve stand at the time) if he can make it to the bigs.

He needs to cut down on CS too ... last year must have gone to his head.

[roadrunner]

We also seem to be extrapolating players' major league impact based on 6 weeks of A/AA ball.  I love being optimistic about the minors, but some of these guys are going to fall off.

DDS has a long way to go and I think the Astros will take extra care of him in the minors so not to rush him and push Altuve out.  The goal being to line up DDS' major league starting 2b job with Altuve's free agency exit (or trade prior to).  Reminds of the Hunsicker years.

[pots]

Fontana should be proving himself at AA by now.

You realize he signed last July?

[Foghorn]

Villar and Fontana are the same age.  Fontana should be proving himself at AA by now.

Tell it to Luhnow.  He's a college player you took with a 2nd round draft pick.  His career OBP is about .460 in A Ball.  Time to move him up.

I'm starting to think the Astros are not going to take a pitcher with the #1 pick.  Rather theres the big HR hitter from San Diego (edit:  Kris Bryant) who I've seen mentioned as a 3B/OF prospect.  That's who I'm focusing on.  You can get him a little cheaper than you can the big 2 pitchers and you can address an organizational need for another bopper.

[MusicMan]

You can get him a little cheaper than you can the big 2 pitchers and you can address an organizational need for another bopper.

I get that it's an organizational need, but it's damn hard to look at the "major league" rotation and not take a SP.

[Jacksonian]

You realize he signed last July?

Yes, of course I do.  However, he played in the SEC.  He's very polished.  He's exactly the kind of player you'd expect to get promoted very rapidly.

[Jacksonian]

Tell it to Luhnow.  He's a college player you took with a 2nd round draft pick.  His career OBP is about .460 in A Ball.  Time to move him up.

I'm starting to think the Astros are not going to take a pitcher with the #1 pick.  Rather theres the big HR hitter from San Diego (edit:  Kris Bryant) who I've seen mentioned as a 3B/OF prospect.  That's who I'm focusing on.  You can get him a little cheaper than you can the big 2 pitchers and you can address an organizational need for another bopper.

Bryant is certainly a possibility.  I'm looking at Gray still.  I think it will be easier for Luhnow to find a thumper elsewhere in the draft or via trade than it will a #1 type starter.

[Noe]

Bryant is certainly a possibility.  I'm looking at Gray still.  I think it will be easier for Luhnow to find a thumper elsewhere in the draft or via trade than it will a #1 type starter.

Plus a corner veteran hitter is cheaper via free agency than a legit starter. I would rather they focus on stockpiling pitchers and be wise how they spend when it will become necessary. See: Castilla, Vinny (as an example).

[Mr. Happy]

Bryant is certainly a possibility.  I'm looking at Gray still.  I think it will be easier for Luhnow to find a thumper elsewhere in the draft or via trade than it will a #1 type starter.

I agree with you. I believe in getting more pitching. The Dodgers this season have proven what has been proven time and time again in history: you can't have too much pitching.

[Ron Brand]

I agree with you. I believe in getting more pitching. The Dodgers this season have proven what has been proven time and time again in history: you can't have too much pitching.

Exactly. But you can have enough to trade some away.

[Mr. Happy]

Exactly. But you can have enough to trade some away.

I agree. If you have a comfortable surplus, you can trade pitchers for whatever you need.

[MusicMan]

I agree. If you have a comfortable surplus, you can trade pitchers for whatever you need.

Never has there been a pitcher traded for a PR staff.

[pots]

Yes, of course I do.  However, he played in the SEC.  He's very polished.  He's exactly the kind of player you'd expect to get promoted very rapidly.

I like Fontana, and agree he deserves to be promoted soon. He's only had 36 games at Lancaster.  I think he'll be in Corpus at around game 50.  And if he does well and Villar gets called up at some point, then he'll probably get some at bats in OKC this year.  I don't think he has been held back and don't think he will be.    He's also struggled recently and I'd like to see him get in a groove again before the call up.  The biggest concern with him is whether or not he'll hit for enough average.  He started hot at Lancaster but has only hit .234 over the last 10.

[VirtualBob]

Plus a corner veteran hitter is cheaper via free agency than a legit starter. I would rather they focus on stockpiling pitchers and be wise how they spend when it will become necessary. See: Castilla, Vinny (as an example).

+1

[Foghorn]

Bryant is certainly a possibility.  I'm looking at Gray still.  I think it will be easier for Luhnow to find a thumper elsewhere in the draft or via trade than it will a #1 type starter.

I disagree.  Thumpers are in short supply, and from what I can tell Bryant seems to be the biggest, baddest thumper in the draft class. 

I'm not against Gray, or Appel, especially since I think they should be "major league ready" by mid-2015.

[pots]

I disagree.  Thumpers are in short supply, and from what I can tell Bryant seems to be the biggest, baddest thumper in the draft class. 

I'm not against Gray, or Appel, especially since I think they should be "major league ready" by mid-2015.

To me it's a wash.  A Jeff Bagwell is just as hard to find as a Roy Oswalt.  I'd take a clone of either. 

[Jacksonian]

I disagree.  Thumpers are in short supply, and from what I can tell Bryant seems to be the biggest, baddest thumper in the draft class. 

I don't disagree with you, but so are guys who can hit 100 in the 7th inning.

[Bench]

Here's a sobering article about all the Royals can't-miss prospects who missed. 

[mrpink]

Thumpers are in short supply. 

Not according to BP.

Go ahead.  Try to un-see it.

[Ebby Calvin]

Here's a sobering article about all the Royals can't-miss prospects who missed. 

I've been impressed with Grantland's baseball articles.  Very well-written and researched.  It helps that they like the Astros' current approach, too.

[Texifornia]

Not according to BP.

Go ahead.  Try to un-see it.

The '80s seem a lot weirder now than they did then.

[NeilT]

The '80s seem a lot weirder now than they did then.

I thought they were pretty weird then.

[Ron Brand]

I thought they were pretty weird then.

That's the Eagle Scout talking.

[NeilT]

That's the Eagle Scout talking.

Naw, I was in 4H.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Phil Garner's mustache got big props but not his "hairless" and "concave" chest.

[Randy Watson]

I've been impressed with Grantland's baseball articles.  Very well-written and researched.  It helps that they like the Astros' current approach, too.

Everything I have read from Grantland has been fantastic.  They wrote an article on the 80s Rockets team that beat Magic's Laker team in 86 4-1.  The article was about how that team was about to go on a run for some titles before it was devastated by drug bannings (Lloyd, Wiggins, and Lucas) and Sampson's injuries.  It was titled "The Greatest Team that Never Was".  It was excellent sports writing -- a rarity these days.

[Bench]

Everything I have read from Grantland has been fantastic.  They wrote an article on the 80s Rockets team that beat Magic's Laker team in 86 4-1.  The article was about how that team was about to go on a run for some titles before it was devastated by drug bannings (Lloyd, Wiggins, and Lucas) and Sampson's injuries.  It was titled "The Greatest Team that Never Was".  It was excellent sports writing -- a rarity these days.

I also really enjoyed the multi-media "longread" on the Iditarod, Out in the Great Alone.  A really impressive piece of internetting.