Author Topic: The AL West is going to be a bitch  (Read 4919 times)

juliogotay

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The AL West is going to be a bitch
« on: January 29, 2013, 08:15:00 am »
Nothing new in that statement but if Sickels is correct there are two clubs in division with currently stronger farm systems than Houston (Seattle and Texas), and you have to figure that Anaheim will continue to be big FA spenders. Oh, and did I mention Oakland won the division last year? For what it's worth.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/28/3925786/2013-baseball-farm-system-rankings

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2013, 09:04:25 am »
STOP THE PRESSES!
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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2013, 09:49:23 am »
I caught part of the pre-spring training breakdown of the Astros on XM Inside Pitch the other day.

Bud Norris was the guest interview. Seemed like a decent guy. He wants to be the staff ace, which I guess he probably will be, by default if nothing else. Kept referring to his new manager as "Porter". It didn't sound like he was being disrespectful or anything. Maybe, like Morrissey or Dio, Porter prefers to be referred to by his surname.

Jim Bowden was kinder about the starting pitching than I would have been. Norris-Harrell-Cosart can be a solid 1-2-3, Lyles has a chance to be a serviceable back of the rotation starter.  He expects nothing from Humber and/or Alex White. I didn't hear mention of Keuchel.

The only guy Bowden really likes in the current offense is Altuve; he said Lowrie is a competent MLB starter, though his best position is probably 2B, not SS, but of course that won't happen. He should be trade bait again this year as the deadline nears.  Dominguez has the glove to start at 3B now, the question is if he'll hit enough.  He was adamant that there is no reason why Wallace cannot hit MLB pitching, he doesn't know why he hasn't consistently yet. He intimated that one cause might be how Wallace was put in and out of the lineup under Mills, sent down and brought back up, etc. Bowden said now is the time for Houston to find out if Wallace is the real deal once and for all. They have nothing to lose by sticking him out there for 150 games, 500-600 plate appearances. If he does what it sometimes looks like he can do, they have a quality bat at 1B. If not, they can close the book on him and move on.

Both Bowden and the other guy (Paulsen? ... Casey Stern was off) said the team we'll see on the field this year is not the team that will one day return the franchise to respectability. These are all mostly transitional players. Some of them are former prospects in other organizations who didn't pan out (White, Dominguez, etc.) Some might work out, some not. Just about any veteran guy who is having a good year will be traded for more prospects. Luhnow will have to continue in this manner until he finally gets together the team he is trying for. Needless to say, that team might be a few years from now, soonest.

The consensus was it would be another really tough season for the Astros (and their fans), particularly in this division.

None of this is news to anyone who follows the team. Their show is geared to a national audience, who likely don't hear much about Houston beyond how pitiful the franchise has become. Still, it was a little dismaying to me, to hear it. I suppose I am not quite as detached from the team as I'd thought at the denouement of last season - it kind of hurt my heart to think they are likely in for another 100+ loss campaign, and perhaps several more.

I am guessing I will only be keeping up peripherally in 2013; but deep down I hope all the national pundits (and I) are wrong, that it won't be as bad for the Astros and Astros fans as people think.

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2013, 09:51:32 am »
Nothing new in that statement but if Sickels is correct there are two clubs in division with currently stronger farm systems than Houston (Seattle and Texas), and you have to figure that Anaheim will continue to be big FA spenders. Oh, and did I mention Oakland won the division last year? For what it's worth.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/28/3925786/2013-baseball-farm-system-rankings
But notice which team is #1. Now if only the Astros employed someone who had a whole lot to do with shaping that organization's current farm system...
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juliogotay

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2013, 10:16:51 am »
I caught part of the pre-spring training breakdown of the Astros on XM Inside Pitch the other day.

Bud Norris was the guest interview. Seemed like a decent guy. He wants to be the staff ace, which I guess he probably will be, by default if nothing else. Kept referring to his new manager as "Porter". It didn't sound like he was being disrespectful or anything. Maybe, like Morrissey or Dio, Porter prefers to be referred to by his surname.

Jim Bowden was kinder about the starting pitching than I would have been. Norris-Harrell-Cosart can be a solid 1-2-3, Lyles has a chance to be a serviceable back of the rotation starter.  He expects nothing from Humber and/or Alex White. I didn't hear mention of Keuchel.

The only guy Bowden really likes in the current offense is Altuve; he said Lowrie is a competent MLB starter, though his best position is probably 2B, not SS, but of course that won't happen. He should be trade bait again this year as the deadline nears.  Dominguez has the glove to start at 3B now, the question is if he'll hit enough.  He was adamant that there is no reason why Wallace cannot hit MLB pitching, he doesn't know why he hasn't consistently yet. He intimated that one cause might be how Wallace was put in and out of the lineup under Mills, sent down and brought back up, etc. Bowden said now is the time for Houston to find out if Wallace is the real deal once and for all. They have nothing to lose by sticking him out there for 150 games, 500-600 plate appearances. If he does what it sometimes looks like he can do, they have a quality bat at 1B. If not, they can close the book on him and move on.

Both Bowden and the other guy (Paulsen? ... Casey Stern was off) said the team we'll see on the field this year is not the team that will one day return the franchise to respectability. These are all mostly transitional players. Some of them are former prospects in other organizations who didn't pan out (White, Dominguez, etc.) Some might work out, some not. Just about any veteran guy who is having a good year will be traded for more prospects. Luhnow will have to continue in this manner until he finally gets together the team he is trying for. Needless to say, that team might be a few years from now, soonest.

The consensus was it would be another really tough season for the Astros (and their fans), particularly in this division.

None of this is news to anyone who follows the team. Their show is geared to a national audience, who likely don't hear much about Houston beyond how pitiful the franchise has become. Still, it was a little dismaying to me, to hear it. I suppose I am not quite as detached from the team as I'd thought at the denouement of last season - it kind of hurt my heart to think they are likely in for another 100+ loss campaign, and perhaps several more.

I am guessing I will only be keeping up peripherally in 2013; but deep down I hope all the national pundits (and I) are wrong, that it won't be as bad for the Astros and Astros fans as people think.

I sure agree with him on Wallace. Make or break.

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2013, 10:57:35 am »
It's comical, to me at least, to read about Lyles as an afterthought to Cosart, or Norris for that matter. 

Lyles is younger than Cosart, by the way.

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2013, 11:03:13 am »
Quote
11) Houston Astros (25): Another system that has improved rapidly. Strengths: 2012 draft class looks excellent thanks to inventive exploitation of new draft rules. Trades have dramatically improved system depth. Potential impact bats in Singleton, Correa, Springer. Weaknesses: pitching is weaker than hitting especially at the higher levels, no obvious rotation anchor types are close to the majors. It will take time for recent draftees to filter through system.

Cosart would fit the bill as obvious anchor types close to the majors.  There is at least one really intriguing arm at every level.  Along with a bunch of arms at each level that have major league possibilities.  Don't see how the Astros aren't top 5 at this point.

Ron Brand

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2013, 11:06:18 am »
Don't see how the Astros aren't top 5 at this point.

Not enough depth, too many holes, not enough arms, especially starters. They're getting there.
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pots

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2013, 11:08:36 am »
Not enough depth, too many holes, not enough arms, especially starters. They're getting there.

Disagree on the starters.  I'll wait for VB's post but you'll see pretty nice staffs. Especially if Cosart starts in AAA.  

ETA.
They were already juggling 6 man staffs and moving guys to the pen last year and this year their is a whole new crop of starters from Tri-City that is going to demand spots in QC:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=577

Not to mention if they want to get McCullers in the long season mix early (like Folty did).  And if they intend to keep Jack Armstrong as a starter, there is another spot needed somewhere. 
« Last Edit: January 29, 2013, 11:41:54 am by pots »

astrosfan76

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2013, 11:51:00 am »
Quote
11) Houston Astros (25): Another system that has improved rapidly. Strengths: 2012 draft class looks excellent thanks to inventive exploitation of new draft rules. Trades have dramatically improved system depth. Potential impact bats in Singleton, Correa, Springer. Weaknesses: pitching is weaker than hitting especially at the higher levels, no obvious rotation anchor types are close to the majors. It will take time for recent draftees to filter through system.

Cosart would fit the bill as obvious anchor types close to the majors.  There is at least one really intriguing arm at every level.  Along with a bunch of arms at each level that have major league possibilities.  Don't see how the Astros aren't top 5 at this point.

Sickels doesn't have much faith in Cosart being a long-term starter. There are interesting arms, but there aren't many you can label frontline starters, at least not on a contending team.  The two with the best stuff (Cosart & LMC) will have to fight the "potential closer" stigma.  We are getting much better, and there's the potential that we find our future #1 for 2016 in this year's draft.  But, realistically, we do still have some big holes, though we will be able to gradually plug in quality players at positions. 

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #10 on: January 29, 2013, 11:57:43 am »
i have lived through this before and can again..looking forward to the good times
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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #11 on: January 29, 2013, 11:58:23 am »
Not enough depth, too many holes, not enough arms, especially starters. They're getting there.
Cosart, Folty, McCullers, Tropeano, Velazquez, Houser are all pretty intriguing, though (and I think this may be basically what you mean) none of them have quite established themselves as elite prospects.

Behind them you have a slew of guys who have a decent shot as #3-4 types: Oberholtzer, West, Cisnero, Woj-, Rodgers, maybe Ely if he still counts... and then your usual guys who could factor in if they put it all together.

They do seem very thin on LH starters.
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Ron Brand

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #12 on: January 29, 2013, 12:05:14 pm »
To be more specific, there aren't any consensus #1/#2 SPs in the upper minors. There's some #3-5 guys, and as Reuben said not much in the way of southpaws. The reason they aren't ranked higher is mostly because of this - the higher ranked systems all have 1-3 potential aces bubbling around in AA or AAA. Houston's pitching talent is mostly concentrated in the lower rungs and will take a little longer to move up. Houston's impact players are pretty much all AA or below. The strides they've made are good, but they're not Top 5 yet.
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pots

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #13 on: January 29, 2013, 12:22:47 pm »
Sickels doesn't have much faith in Cosart being a long-term starter. There are interesting arms, but there aren't many you can label frontline starters, at least not on a contending team.  The two with the best stuff (Cosart & LMC) will have to fight the "potential closer" stigma.  We are getting much better, and there's the potential that we find our future #1 for 2016 in this year's draft.  But, realistically, we do still have some big holes, though we will be able to gradually plug in quality players at positions.  

I'd argue that Tropeano (expect at CC) and Folty (probably LAN) are both potentional frontline starers.  With Vincent Velasquez also with a high ceiling at QC.  Then there is Jack Armstrong who for the moment may still be a starter with frontline starter stuff.  

And there is a plethora of starters who have the potential for mid to back end rotation.  Never know which ones are going to all of a sudden surprise or which ones (most) will completely bomb.  But every level is full of these guys.  Maybe i'm just overly enthusiastic given that just a few years ago every level had guys who were all long shots at best (except for Lyles).

« Last Edit: January 29, 2013, 12:33:00 pm by pots »

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #14 on: January 29, 2013, 12:33:00 pm »
Kept referring to his new manager as "Porter".

For some reason this conjures up the image of Tal Smith in a Nudie suit. Weird.
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Ron Brand

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #15 on: January 29, 2013, 12:35:21 pm »
For some reason this conjures up the image of Tal Smith in a Nudie suit. Weird.

The real weird part is when you start imagining what passes for Dolly in that scenario.
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EasTexAstro

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #16 on: January 29, 2013, 12:37:31 pm »
For some reason this conjures up the image of Tal Smith in a Nudie suit. Weird.

I would bet that you were the only one with that image. Now we will all suffer with that image.

Screw you.

It's my estimation that every man ever got a statue made of 'em was one kinda sombitch or another.

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #17 on: January 29, 2013, 12:37:59 pm »
For some reason this conjures up the image of Tal Smith in a Nudie suit. Weird.


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roadrunner

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #19 on: January 29, 2013, 03:17:51 pm »
I'd argue that Tropeano (expect at CC) and Folty (probably LAN) are both potentional frontline starers.  


I understand your argument, but most of the pundits will argue they are more mid-rotation guys.

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #20 on: January 29, 2013, 03:20:46 pm »
Not enough depth, too many holes, not enough arms, especially starters. They're getting there.

The Sporting News Baseball Preview magazine just hit the stands, and a better-than-expected campaign by their measure is less than 100 losses. They said the Mets' '62 120 loss season is reachable, so there are the parameters for success and failure in 2013.

Ron Brand

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #21 on: January 29, 2013, 03:27:05 pm »
Normally, I'd say 'Fuck the Sporting News, it's filled by no-talent hacks who can't get a real writing job and is a disgrace to the brand.'

But, it's the AL West we're talking about. Could certainly be historic.
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Ron Brand

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #22 on: January 29, 2013, 03:31:17 pm »
Fuck. Now I've got a coworker who picked up the Sporting News Baseball Preview as well. One of those Ranger fans I so enjoyed hearing the whining of on the last day of the 2012 season.

Quote
Angels are the pick to win the division and league—and Series, over PHA. Rangers have better pitching.

Ugh.
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pots

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #23 on: January 29, 2013, 03:38:12 pm »
The Sporting News Baseball Preview magazine just hit the stands, and a better-than-expected campaign by their measure is less than 100 losses. They said the Mets' '62 120 loss season is reachable, so there are the parameters for success and failure in 2013.

Yes but referring to the farm alone, the Astros were #1 last year (in winning percentage):
http://www.spikesnstars.com/forums/index.php?topic=114928.0

Given they have only improved as the year went on, I'd guess they might take this useless title again in 2013
« Last Edit: January 29, 2013, 03:44:25 pm by pots »

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #24 on: January 29, 2013, 04:13:41 pm »
Fuck. Now I've got a coworker who picked up the Sporting News Baseball Preview as well. One of those Ranger fans I so enjoyed hearing the whining of on the last day of the 2012 season.

Ugh.

Just ask him about Nelson Cruz and steriods. 
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Ron Brand

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #25 on: January 29, 2013, 04:40:46 pm »
Just ask him about Nelson Cruz and steriods. 

I flopped that one out to the other Ranger fan coworker.  Made him pretty sad.
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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #26 on: January 29, 2013, 07:20:26 pm »
Cosart, Folty, McCullers, Tropeano, Velazquez, Houser are all pretty intriguing, though***

Neither here nor there, but im thinking Vazquez will be shooting up a lot of prospect lists by the end of the season...
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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #27 on: January 29, 2013, 07:27:40 pm »
I flopped that one out to the other Ranger fan coworker.  Made him pretty sad.

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Re: The AL West is going to be a bitch
« Reply #28 on: January 30, 2013, 12:05:38 pm »
Hey look, the Astros get to face Albert Pujols again! Ah... oh no... *sigh*