Texas weather next week

[das]

Keep your eyes peeled. Rare central Texas December snowstorm potential. More details as events unfold.

[Limey]

I went to check the local forecast, and all I got was this.

[Mr. Happy]

Keep your eyes peeled. Rare central Texas December snowstorm potential. More details as events unfold.

Up here in Montana, there's snow on the ground right now.

[juliogotay]

Up here in Montana, there's snow on the ground right now.

There is probably snow up there until July.

[das]

I went to check the local forecast, and all I got was this.

that's funny.

[MusicMan]

I went to check the local forecast, and all I got was this.

Inspired by this?

[das]

Up here in Montana, there's snow on the ground right now.

Get used to it.  there is some serious cold bottled up just to your north.  Get ready for it.  It's not a matter of if but when.

[HudsonHawk]

I appreciate your warning, and usually you're my go-to man for all things weather.  But have I explained to you how I am the "anti-snow"?  It will not snow wherever I am.  I could move to the Alaska and it would be shorts weather as long as I was there.  Snow hates me like AT&T hates chuck.

[das]

I appreciate your warning, and usually you're my go-to man for all things weather.  But have I explained to you how I am the "anti-snow"?  It will not snow wherever I am.  I could move to the Alaska and it would be shorts weather as long as I was there.  Snow hates me like AT&T hates chuck.

Apparently, it hates me too.  We haven't had a decent snowstorm here since October of LAST YEAR.

This is the local NWS team internal chatter.  The evening update will be interesting:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
500 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEATHER WILL UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THIS WEEK LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS. THE OFFICIAL START OF WINTER
IS FRIDAY MORNING AND THE WEATHER PATTERN THE FIRST WEEK OF WINTER
MAY ACTUALLY LIVE UP TO ITS SEASONAL BILLING. RECENT NPW ENSEMBLE
RUNS ALL EVOLVE A POTENT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE INTERCONTINENTAL
DIVIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...TAKING A DEEP TROUGH (WITH A FOLLOWING
VERY COLD AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE) ACROSS TEXAS CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A BIT TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFICS...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVIER WEATHER IS ON THE
RISE ON OR AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. AS THE DAYS UNFOLD...THE QUESTION
WILL BE WHETHER WE WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER THE HOLIDAY.

NO RAIN UNTIL MONDAY...THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOMES
QUITE INTERESTING. THE DAYS LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS WILL BECOME
MILD...WINDIER AND MORE HUMID...WITH INCREASING RAIN PROBABILITIES.
RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED AS RECENT RUN-TO-RUN
EXTENDED PROGS ALL INDICATE A VERY WET PATTERN JUST BEFORE...DURING
...AND POSSIBLY AFTER CHRISTMAS DAY. THE LATTER PROGNOSTICATION
IS INTERESTING AS...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A DEEP UPPER LOW SUGGESTS WINTRY PRECIPITATION. ALL CLICHES
ASIDE...BUT STAY TUNED!

It looks like there will be a significant temp delta across the state with very cold readings across north Texas and very war across the south.  This typically makes for some dynamic weather...

[jbm]

Interesting, both in the forecast, and in that the language doesn't include a lot of the fancy acronyms.  When I want a forecast, I actually go to the NOAA site and read the discussion for the Austin\SA area.  I generally get the gist of the forecast, but I have to gloss over the acronyms, and don't get me started about zulu time.  The top of the discussion lists the CST time of posting, and then the discussion uses this Z time or something.  Very confusing. 

[das]

Interesting, both in the forecast, and in that the language doesn't include a lot of the fancy acronyms.  When I want a forecast, I actually go to the NOAA site and read the discussion for the Austin\SA area.  I generally get the gist of the forecast, but I have to gloss over the acronyms, and don't get me started about zulu time.  The top of the discussion lists the CST time of posting, and then the discussion uses this Z time or something.  Very confusing. 

Offices use their own "special" language, some more than others.  In the northeast, the text is nearly illegible, even for a trained meteorologist due to the abundance of acronyms and abbreviations.  This is a holdover from the old teletype days where the number of characters mattered for multiple reasons.

[chuck]

I appreciate your warning, and usually you're my go-to man for all things weather.  But have I explained to you how I am the "anti-snow"?  It will not snow wherever I am.  I could move to the Alaska and it would be shorts weather as long as I was there.  Snow hates me like AT&T hates chuck.

With great astonishment I notice people getting onto the elevator and riding up and down, chatting merrily away. Are you fucking kidding me? You get signal on the elevator? I don't even get reliable signal in my apartment standing next to the window. In fact, getting close to the window seems to make it worse. I should probably turn on the microwave and go stand over there.

[BizidyDizidy]

It figures - my parents came from Houston to NYC for the weekend and got caught in a hurricane. Only makes sense I would go from NYC to HOU and get caught in a snowstorm.

[drew corleone]

I'm seeing mid-70s early in the week and mid-to-low 60s later in the week here in Austin. Is this just a new development that hasn't yet changed the long-range models outlets are using for their current 10-day forecasts?

If there is snow in Austin is will absolutely happen on the 27th or 28th when I am in San Diego.

[EasTexAstro]

I have to drive to Abilene Sunday night and drive back Tuesday night. It would be helpful to know this information a few weeks out.

[NeilT]

I have to drive to Abilene Sunday night and drive back Tuesday night. It would be helpful to know this information a few weeks out.

Agreed.  If I would have known it might snow back in June, I probably would have stayed in Houston for Christmas.

[HudsonHawk]

Frank Billingsley just said mid-70's here next week.  What does Frank have that you don't?  Besides a husband.

[Mr. Happy]

Get used to it.  there is some serious cold bottled up just to your north.  Get ready for it.  It's not a matter of if but when.

I guess that I have no choice. I guess that "banana belt" stuff was really horseshit anyway.

[Waldo]

If there is snow in Austin is will absolutely happen on the 27th or 28th when I am in San Diego.

Punishment for buying tickets to Mack Brown's Traveling Horseshit Show.

[austro]

Punishment for buying tickets to Mack Brown's Traveling Horseshit Show.

I'm probably missing something, but isn't Mack Brown's Traveling Horseshit Show traveling to San Antonio, not San Diego?

[drew corleone]

Correct. I am going to see Baylor-UCLA.

[Waldo]

I'm probably missing something, but isn't Mack Brown's Traveling Horseshit Show traveling to San Antonio, not San Diego?

True, my mistake.  Goes to show how ambivalent I am.

[ybbodeus]

Correct. I am going to see Baylor-UCLA.

Thanks. We need the DUES!

[drew corleone]

My buddy's wedding prevents me from attending the Alamo Bowl.

[BizidyDizidy]

Now that's a good friend

[das]

Frank Billingsley just said mid-70's here next week.  What does Frank have that you don't?  Besides a husband.

A crystal ball, apparently. The diving line between cold 30's and warm 70's will be only a couple of hundred miles. Where that sets up will determine sensible weather for the storm. I can't see where it will be yet but maybe he can. The cards are on the table (storm likely, cold air nearby). Now it's all a matter of how the hand is dealt.

[DVauthrin]

Now that's a good friend

Agreed.  As a Texas alum, I'd rather save the money and watch the torture from home. 

[drew corleone]

His fiancee (Texas alum; he's an Ag) told me she was considering having a tv at the reception. I told her that she shouldn't lessen her special day by broadcasting further disappointment to the handful of Texas fans in attendance. Mack would say that makes me not a true friend of the program, but he can go fuck himself.

[Phil_in_CS]

A crystal ball, apparently. The diving line between cold 30's and warm 70's will be only a couple of hundred miles. Where that sets up will determine sensible weather for the storm. I can't see where it will be yet but maybe he can. The cards are on the table (storm likely, cold air nearby). Now it's all a matter of how the hand is dealt.

Current forecast for here is 60s cooling into the low 30's with rain. Normally the rain has stopped before the big cold gets here.

[OregonStrosFan]

Looking at the forecast trying to figure out to pack in my measly carry-on* for my trip home for the holidays.  The daily forecasts during my stay range from 34' low/56' high to 60'low/76' high.  My solution?  Same as it always is I guess (as similar weather ranges seem to be the norm for my Christmas trips back to Texas)...  Whatever I pack will be wrong and I'll end up borrowing clothes from my dad (and picking up some cheap sports** shirts/jerseys from Walmart...). C'est la vie.

*It's not that I cannot pay the extra baggage fee, or that I am too cheap to pay it, rather the thought of paying United $100+ to check a bag (and then wait, and wait, and wait) in baggage claim to pick up said $100+ bag just annoys me on general principal...

**Normally it'd be some Astros related gear, but I've sworn that off for a while (at a minimum)...  Of course, my preference'd be Baylor gear, but that is a rarity at Walmart (or most other Houston sports stores).  So, that said, I'll probably just end up raiding my dad's closet again (which is a scary thought... but...  I can manage to lie low during Christmas pictures for another year... it'll be okay...).

[Limey]

**Normally it'd be some Astros related gear, but I've sworn that off for a while (at a minimum)...  Of course, my preference'd be Baylor gear, but that is a rarity at Walmart (or most other Houston sports stores).  So, that said, I'll probably just end up raiding my dad's closet again (which is a scary thought... but...  I can manage to lie low during Christmas pictures for another year... it'll be okay...). [/i]

Dude.  Texans gear!

[BudGirl]

Dude.  Texans gear!

He doesn't swing that way.

[Ebby Calvin]

**Normally it'd be some Astros related gear, but I've sworn that off for a while (at a minimum)... 

Then Bud has won.

[ybbodeus]

NICE, EBay.

[das]

Nice discussion and primer (in plain english) from the Ft. Worth NWS guys last night:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
845 PM CST THU DEC 20 2012

.UPDATE...
THE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 0 DEG F AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS
NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS IS ABOUT THE DRIEST AIR I CAN RECALL
IN MANY YEARS. THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TONIGHT...WITH BIG VARIATIONS IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION BASED ON LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY AND SOIL
TYPE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WHICH
WILL KEEP A LIGHT WEST WIND IN PLACE TONIGHT...AND THIS LIGHT WIND
COMBINED WITH HEAT STORED UP IN THE SOIL WILL KEEP TEMPS 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR DEWPOINT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE SW ZONES NEARER TO THE HIGH CENTER.

YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE AFD ENDS HERE. SINCE IT IS A QUIET
NIGHT...ITS WEATHER CLASSROOM AND LAB TIME FOR THOSE INTERESTED...

THE CHRISTMAS NIGHT FORECAST IS ON EVERYONE/S MIND. WE HAVE BEEN
WATCHING THIS SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND
CONTINUE TO RIGHTLY ASSESS THAT A POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER EVENT
EXISTS. UNFORTUNATELY MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THE SKILL IN
THAT TIME RANGE TO ACCURATELY PREDICT THE INTENSITY AND LATITUDE
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TAKE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON TUESDAY. AS WE HAVE SAID IN
THE LAST 2 AFDS...THIS COLD FRONT IS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST.

BUT TO UNDERSTAND WHY...IT IS HELPFUL TO DISCUSS BAROCLINICITY
AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.
ESSENTIALLY THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE BLOBS OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY...OR VORTICITY...OFTEN CALLED SHORTWAVES OR DISTURBANCES.
IN AN ATMOSPHERE WHERE THERE IS VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION...THE MOTION OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS
BASICALLY DICTATED BY THE FLOW THEY ARE A PART OF. THEY BEHAVE
MUCH LIKE A LEAF WOULD IF IT WERE FLOATING DOWN A RIVER.

HOWEVER WHEN HORIZONTAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS EXIST...SUCH AS
WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NEARBY...THIS SIMPLE RULE GOES OUT THE
window. THIS IS CALLED A BAROCLINIC ATMOSPHERE. A DISTURBANCE THAT
MOVES INTO A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INTENSIFY. THIS IS BECAUSE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BEGINS TO INTERFACE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. IN SHORT...THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
CAUSE HEIGHT CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WHICH IN TURN
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER...WHICH IN TURN
STRENGTHENS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...AND ETC. THE WHOLE
THING BECOMES A FEEDBACK LOOP. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE UNDERGOING
BAROCLINIC INTENSIFICATION WILL TRANSFORM INTO A CYCLONE AND WILL
NO LONGER MOVE WITH THE MEAN FLOW...BUT WILL CURVE TOWARD THE
POLE. IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TOWARD THE POLE THE CYCLONE
OFTEN OCCLUDES...MEANING THEY LOSE THEIR ACCESS TO THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS AND THEY WEAKEN. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN MANY MODEL RUNS OF
A BIG WINTER CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CURVING OFF TO THE NORTH. IN THE LATEST MODELS WE NO LONGER SEE
THAT SOLUTION AND SEE A WEAK TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD.

THE REASON WHY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN A POWERFUL
WINTER CYCLONE IN THE PLAINS AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN DUE
TO THE LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE /OR COLD FRONT/ WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE TREND IN MOST OF THE
MODELS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. AS A RESULT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVELS OVER TEXAS
WITHOUT STRENGTHENING BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK
SO FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM THUS DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL
IT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHERE A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXISTS.
THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...IS ONE THAT
WOULD ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF WINTER PRECIP. THIS IS BECAUSE
THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND HAS NO ACCESS TO THE THERMAL GRADIENTS
IT NEEDS TO INTENSIFY. AN INTENSIFYING LOW WOULD BE ABLE AUGMENT
THE WIND FIELDS AND THUS TAP INTO THE GULF FOR MOISTURE.

IN ORDER TO GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM HERE...WE WOULD NEED THE
FRONT TO BE FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT NOT SO FAR
NORTH THAT THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS POLEWARD TURN AND STAYS NORTH OF
THE REGION ALTOGETHER. WE NEED A GOLDILOCKS POSITION OF THIS
FRONT. AGAIN...KNOWING THE PRECISE LOCATION OF A FRONT BEYOND 5
DAYS IS THE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS FORECAST. THANKFULLY THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AND WILL BE SAMPLED BY THE BALLOON
NETWORK. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE IN RANGE OF THE NAM BY TOMORROW
FOR HAVING ANOTHER OPINION ON THIS FRONT/S STRENGTH AND LOCATION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EVEN IF WE DONT GET AN EXPLICIT DEC
25TH FORECAST FROM THE NAM UNTIL SATURDAY.

[Bench]

Why are weathermen always shouting?

[Mr. Happy]

Why are weathermen always shouting?

Not that you want to be compared in any way to me, but I had the same question. What's up with that?

[Limey]

Why are weathermen always shouting?

Maybe they're outside, checking on the weather.

[mrpink]

Not that you want to be compared in any way to me, but I had the same question. What's up with that?

http://www.spikesnstars.com/forums/index.php?topic=113134.msg391419#msg391419

[das]

http://www.spikesnstars.com/forums/index.php?topic=113134.msg391419#msg391419

Beat me to the punch.  Good ferreting...

[Ron Brand]

We're doing Christmas in NYC next week, but the forecasts fluctuate between flurries and nada almost hourly. Drat.

[das]

We're doing Christmas in NYC next week, but the forecasts fluctuate between flurries and nada almost hourly. Drat.

It's a very tough forecast there (and here in Maryland) next week.  Potential is there for a significant winter storm just after Christmas.  Flurries and nada are the two least likely outcomes so you should likely ignore whatever source you were looking at as a valid source of weather info going forward.  Here's the latest NWS forecast.  It will refine and increase in validity over the next 48 hours.

Monday A slight chance of rain after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday Night A slight chance of rain before 9pm, then snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Christmas Day A chance of snow before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Wednesday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Breezy.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.7143528&lon=-74.0059731&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=New%20York%2C%20NY%2C%20USA

[94CougarGrad]

I usually only head to the National Weather Center sites when there are hurricanes or tornadoes heading my direction, so I found the "weather lesson" interesting. Do they do that often on a "slow weather night", so to speak?

[juliogotay]

We're doing Christmas in NYC next week, but the forecasts fluctuate between flurries and nada almost hourly. Drat.

Just got back this afternoon from NYC...been there since the 21st. Come back to snow and ice in Texas after a dry and mild stay there. It was chilly but good weather.