Early 2013 Draft Thread

[astrosfan76]

I don't mean for this to be any kind of official thread, but I've seen some stuff popping up about showcases/tournaments with next year's draft crop.  I imagine that we'll have a very high pick again next year; maybe not top, but close.  Here's what Jonathan Mayo had to say about USA Baseball's Prospect Classic:

Overall, the scouting community has not been overwhelmed to date about the Class of 2013. That’s not to say there’s no talent or that some guys haven’t performed, but the overall evaluation of the group this summer has been so-so, at best.

This doesn't mean that crop will be bad, just that the guys with a track record, like Whitson and Austin Wilson, haven't stepped up and there is no identified phenom.  What I found interesting, though was his list of top performers from the event:

College

Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego
Marco Gonzales, LHP/1B, Gonzaga
D.J. Peterson, 1B/OF, New Mexico
Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas
Trea Turner, 2B, NC State (2014)
Bobby Wahl, RHP, Mississippi State

High School

Cavan Biggio, IF/OF, Houston, Texas
Ryan Boldt, OF, Red Wing, Minn.
Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, San Marcos, Calif.
Robert Kaminsky, LHP, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.
Christian Martinek, LHP, Portland, Ore. (2014)

I remember Craig talking about his kids several years back and saying that Cavan was the bigger, more athletic of the brothers.  Granted, this is only one showcase and I haven't heard his name floated anywhere as a possible #1, but he's someone I'll be following over the next 11 months (and on), to see where he ends up. 

http://minors.mlblogs.com/2012/07/05/top-performers-at-prospect-classic/

[roadrunner]

Article on Biggio: http://espn.go.com/blog/high-school/baseball

Oh the joys of being in the cellar...discussing next year's draft in July.

[astrosfan76]

Thanks for the link.  Yeah, those are the joys of ineptitude and having the 3rd-worst record (1/2 game out of 1st).  That, and "what kind of talent will we acquire for Player X?". 

Here's a quick look at Bleacher Report's early predictions for the Top 10 (in no particular order, I think):

1) Jeremy Martinez (C) - Mater Dei HS, CA - #1 HS prospect according to ESPN, strong defensively, room to grow offensively

2) Karsten Whitston (RHP) - Florida - Picked 9th out of HS by the Padres; stuff is there, results haven't always been.  High ceiling

3) Clinton Hollon (RHP) - Kentucky HS - Has hit 97 MPH, has a good slider, throws change and curve, as well.  6'1" 195.  #1 HS RHP prospect

4) Austin Meadows (OF) - Georgia HS - 5-tool outfielder from Georgia (sound familiar?) 6'3" 200, profiles better in RF, though instincts could let him stay in CF

5) Ryan Stanek (RHP) - Arkansas - Doesn't have the highest ceiling, but stuff is still pretty good and uses it well.  Was impressed watching him against LSU.

6) Colin Moran (3B) - North Carolina - BA's Freshman of the Year in '11; strong defensive player.  Hit for average and power as Freshman; power was sapped in '12 after missing 20 games with broken hand sustained after punching a door following a loss to NC State. 

7) Stephen Gonslaves (LHP) - California HS - Big lefty (6'5" 185) Touches mid-90's with late break and good changeup

8 ) Dominic Ficociello (1B) - Arkansas - Not sure why he's on here.  Good defensively, but at 1B.  Average was ho-hum for college (.290) only hit 6 HR.

9) William Abreu (OF) - Florida HS - Ranked as 2nd-best HS OF prospect in April list, 3rd-best in Top 60 list (not sure when published).  Lefty hitter, above-average defensively at corner, projectable, should hit for power as he matures

10) Kris Bryant (1B/3B) - San Diego - Quick glance didn't find recent full scouting report, but has hit for power and average in both seasons at S.D. Hit for more power (14 v 9 HR) and improved his plate discipline (39/38 v 33/55 BB/K) has been hit 24 times by pitch between the 2 seasons.  Decent speed, going 27-33 in stolen bases between the 2 seasons (only 9 in '12, though).  Has shown huge power this summer in showcases.

Here are some links:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1210500-2013-mlb-mock-draft-early-predictions-for-next-years-top-10-picks
http://espn.go.com/high-school/baseball/recruiting/rankings/players/_/class/2013
http://espn.go.com/blog/high-school/baseball/tag/_/name/clinton-hollon - Follow this one for other HS position rankings

[Jacksonian]

I think we can let this thread play on as the primary repository for draft stuff for next year.

At the ASB the Astros are #1 by 1/2 a game.

[MusicMan]

I think we can let this thread play on as the primary repository for draft stuff for next year.

At the ASB the Astros are #1 by 1/2 a game.

Thanks, 11-23 since June 1!

[Mike S.]

I think we can let this thread play on as the primary repository for draft stuff for next year.

At the ASB the Astros are #1 by 1/2 a game.

Next year's draft is one of the few things helping me keep any sense of enthusiasm or hope for the Astros.

Fuck Bud Selig.

[OregonStrosFan]

Fuck Bud Selig.

Hey, at least he's giving the Cardinals (and 12 other teams) a chance at an extra draft pick in the 2013 draft... (11/30/11 Mayo LINK: Competitive Balance Lottery). To occur on July 18... FYB!!!

[astrosfan76]

Hey, at least he's giving the Cardinals (and 12 other teams) a chance at an extra draft pick in the 2013 draft... (11/30/11 Mayo LINK: Competitive Balance Lottery). To occur on July 18... FYB!!!

I get that they play in what's probably considered a "smaller-market", but it's hard to view a team that averaged over 38,000 at home last season and sports a payroll of $110M as needing help.  Throw in their $233M in revenues last season and they seem to be doing alright.  Granted, Miami and Milwaukee are also in the top 10 in payroll this season, but Miami averages a 6-A high school in attendance and Milwaukee, well they're Milwaukee.  What makes this even better is that the market sizes aren't likely to change that much, so the same teams will be vying for the picks every season, regardless of profitability. 

[chuck]

Hey, at least he's giving the Cardinals (and 12 other teams) a chance at an extra draft pick in the 2013 draft... (11/30/11 Mayo LINK: Competitive Balance Lottery). To occur on July 18... FYB!!!

Is David Stern in charge of this? What the fuck?

$20 says the Brewers manage to win the first one.

[Reuben]

I get that they play in what's probably considered a "smaller-market", but it's hard to view a team that averaged over 38,000 at home last season and sports a payroll of $110M as needing help.  Throw in their $233M in revenues last season and they seem to be doing alright.  Granted, Miami and Milwaukee are also in the top 10 in payroll this season, but Miami averages a 6-A high school in attendance and Milwaukee, well they're Milwaukee.  What makes this even better is that the market sizes aren't likely to change that much, so the same teams will be vying for the picks every season, regardless of profitability. 

It's also absurdly late-acting. They use 2011 revenue/market figures... to award extra picks in the 2013 draft? WTF? "Hey, we know this year sucked for you, but don't worry, a mere two years from now you'll be able to draft an extra kid who might be able to help you six or seven years from now..."

[astrosfan76]

I am a little curious to see if any of the picks are traded.  Depending on which round of the lottery the pick is from, that could be an extra pick after the supplemental round.  While it's not as high as a Supplemental pick, a team at the top of the draft could find that very handy, especially if they wanted to play the draft like the Astros did and create extra cap space with their first-round pick.  The second wave of picks wouldn't be as valuable, but could be a fit where a team would normally receive a PTBNL.  On a side note, I wonder if the Astros will receive revenue sharing this year.  I'm doubtful, but with the gates as low as they have been, I wouldn't be shocked.  I'm sure next year's TV deal will remove any future chance, though.

What I don't like about this, aside from teams like St. Louis receiving treatment akin to the Rays, is adding more picks to the top of the draft.  They had the compensation altered so there would be fewer supplemental picks, then they turn around and add 12 more.  Granted, altering the compensation prevents teams like the Yankees from renting a player for 1/2 a season to fill a hole then getting an extra pick in the next draft.  But, this was also part of the bargaining power of the team trading the player; now a team set to lose a key player has much less bargaining power to expedite their club's improvement.  I can see the good in both situations, but, once again, they're talking out both sides of their mouth.

[OregonStrosFan]

So... Giolito will not be on the 2013 draft board (signed with Nationals for $2.9+M).  Looks like the Astros will have another shot at Appel should they want one though, as he did not sign with the Pirates...

[moriartp]

So... Giolito will not be on the 2013 draft board (signed with Nationals for $2.9+M).  Looks like the Astros will have another shot at Appel should they want one though, as he did not sign with the Pirates...

Giolito wouldn't have been eligible next season, assuming he didn't have some secret plan to spurn UCLA in favor of a juco. Interesting to see that Appel will be on the board again. He's seen as the top talent in the class right now, but you never know what'll happen in a year's time.

Most interesting to me is that the Astros seem pretty well-positioned for three straight first-round picks. They seem headed that direction this year, anyway, and it's hard to see them improving in their first year in the AL without a major talent infusion.

[OregonStrosFan]

Giolito wouldn't have been eligible next season, assuming he didn't have some secret plan to spurn UCLA in favor of a juco. Interesting to see that Appel will be on the board again. He's seen as the top talent in the class right now, but you never know what'll happen in a year's time.

Most interesting to me is that the Astros seem pretty well-positioned for three straight first-round picks. They seem headed that direction this year, anyway, and it's hard to see them improving in their first year in the AL without a major talent infusion.

Why should I let facts get in the way of me beating y'all to a post in the BusRide?!?  Geeeez...

As per Appel, his statement (Via Heyman Twitter feed link):

"Appel: After much thought, prayer & analysis of both opportunities, I came to the conclusion the best decision is to remain at Stanford ...
...continuing my studies, finishing my degree & doing all I can to assist the Cardinal baseball team in our goal to win nat. championship
(more appel)I greatly valued the prospect of a prof. opportunity & I will pursue a prof baseball career after getting my Stanford degree
(more appel) I appreciate the love, support, and guidance from everyone who helped me make this decision.'' (end)"

[MusicMan]

Looks like the Astros will have another shot at Appel should they want one though, as he did not sign with the Pirates...

They should be careful.  If he's bad, he could spoil a whole bunch of picks.

[Andyzipp]

They should be careful.  If he's bad, he could spoil a whole bunch of picks.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[jbm]

Really don't understand Appel not signing.  Makes zero sense to me.  The best case scenario is a repeat of this year's process.  If he stays healthy, and if he pitches well, he will face the exact dynamics as this year, be forced to sign at near the same value he just turned down, and be a year farther away from arbitration and free agency. 

[austro]

Really don't understand Appel not signing.  Makes zero sense to me.  The best case scenario is a repeat of this year's process.  If he stays healthy, and if he pitches well, he will face the exact dynamics as this year, be forced to sign at near the same value he just turned down, and be a year farther away from arbitration and free agency. 

Maybe he likes being at Stanford?

[Mike S.]

Perhaps being originally from Houston he loves the Astros so much that he's bound and determined to be drafted by them?  Very crafty, which is exactly what I would expect from a (pending) Stanford grad.

[OregonStrosFan]

All sorts of 'Competitive Balance Lottery' crap clogging up my Twitter feed today.  The whole concept of a 'Competitive Balance Lottery' that includes STL just pisses me off...

[OregonStrosFan]

Cardinals 'shut out' in the 'Competitive Balance Lottery' (along with the Rays). I'm ever-so-slightly less bent-out-of-shape over it now (for another 350 days or so anyway...).

[Reuben]

Cardinals 'shut out' in the 'Competitive Balance Lottery' (along with the Rays). I'm ever-so-slightly less bent-out-of-shape over it now (for another 350 days or so anyway...).

Yeah, but how in the hell do the Tigers get an extra pick out of it, while the Astros weren't even eligible??

[roadrunner]

Remember, it's based on 2011:

10 smallest market teams and 10 lowest revenues

Detroit was actually included because they receive revenue sharing, which I don't really understand.

I'd say there's a pretty good chance the Astros have a shot at making the lowest revenues of 2012.

[jbm]

I wonder how they actually define a team's market anyway.  Seems rather difficult, IMO. 

[Reuben]

I wonder how they actually define a team's market anyway.  Seems rather difficult, IMO. 

Exactly. For one thing, it seems like the size/timing of each team's TV deals is starting to become a huge factor that will hinder a lot of teams that are locked into cheap, long-term deals. I wonder if they will start to factor that into the Lottery.

[Bench]

They should be careful.  If he's bad, he could spoil a whole bunch of picks.

I can't believe nobody picked that pun yet.  Well done.

[VirtualBob]

I can't believe nobody picked that pun yet.  Well done.

Actually, it took just over 13 minutes for the first "catch":

They should be careful.  If he's bad, he could spoil a whole bunch of picks.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Mike S.]

Most interesting to me is that the Astros seem pretty well-positioned for three straight first-round picks. They seem headed that direction this year, anyway, and it's hard to see them improving in their first year in the AL without a major talent infusion.

Also, from what I can tell today's trade with Toronto essentially replaced one 2013 FA with another (Lyon for Cordero), so I'm assuming there will be compensation round pick there as well?

[moriartp]

Also, from what I can tell today's trade with Toronto essentially replaced one 2013 FA with another (Lyon for Cordero), so I'm assuming there will be compensation round pick there as well?

Highly unlikely under the new CBA. The Astros would have to offer Cordero something like $10-12 million on a one-year deal if memory serves, and that ain't gonna happen. The A/B ranking + arbitration offer system is no longer in effect.

[astrosfan76]

Highly unlikely under the new CBA. The Astros would have to offer Cordero something like $10-12 million on a one-year deal if memory serves, and that ain't gonna happen. The A/B ranking + arbitration offer system is no longer in effect.

I think it is only for the upper echelon of free agents, so I don't think Cordero will qualify for any kind of compensation.

[Reuben]

BA put up their early 2013 Draft Top 50. Appel is #1. 3B Cavan Biggio is #26: "Craig's son is a little more physical (6-foot-1, 180 pounds) and has intriguing power from the left side of the plate".

JaCoby Jones is #48... about the only other name I recognized on a quick glance.

[astrosfan76]

Interesting read on the Cape Cod (and other summer leagues) this year.

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1217488.html

[roadrunner]

Apparently 2013's crop of talent is worse than 2012's (also bad), which sounds about right for the Houston Astros.

[Duman]

Which likely means maximizing the 1-1 draft budget again with multiple top tier players.  I like a diversified portfolio better than all eggs in one basket.

[Reuben]

Which likely means maximizing the 1-1 draft budget again with multiple top tier players.  I like a diversified portfolio better than all eggs in one basket.

Me too, unless it's a Strasburg/Griffey kinda basket.

[astrosfan76]

Apparently 2013's crop of talent is worse than 2012's (also bad), which sounds about right for the Houston Astros.

I'm not going to worry about the crop right now.  I've read that it's a little worse than this year's, but 12 months ago, this year's was supposed to be weak; it wound up as average.  Things will change over the next 9 months; guys will get hurt and others will make huge strides, sometimes they do both (think Giolito had he not gone down).  It doesn't seem like '13 will have the depth of '11 or the immediate FOTF pick, but we still managed to have a great draft in '12, regardless of the year.  I see the same opportunity next June.  I'll just enjoy the ride right now.

[NeilT]

But I've read that the Rhones promise to be . . . wait, wait, am I on the wrong board?

[Mike S.]

No, not at all.  2012 promises to be a very tough year in most of France because of poor weather (especially in Burgundy) leading to very small yields.  Here in Napa, we're looking much better than the last two years (touch wood), although there's still a lot of weather between now and when the Cabernet sauvignon starts coming in.

[juliogotay]

http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2013-mlb-mock-draft-3-0-draft-order-set/25833/

[astrosfan76]

As of right now, BA thinks the college P's are the favorites for 1/1, but they won't hesitate to admit that it's early to try to pin it down.  Meadows could be/probably is in the mix.  Manaea had a huge Cape season and has a good shot if he can continue his dominance this spring.  He has the size and, while he still needs more development with his secondary pitches, his stuff is plenty good.  Throw in his left-handedness and he looks good right now.  

I do like Stanek and was impressed watching him pitch against LSU, but I don't know if I like him at 1/1.  His stuff isn't overwhelming and his build will never be a workhorse build.  But, he does get results.  

Appel is obviously a wild card and if his '13 season looks like his '12 could give an indication how big of a factor money was in their decision to draft Correa.  There's no doubt that it did play a factor, but would they have taken Appel had the money been the same?  The budget will be smaller this year, given the lack of a supplemental pick this year. Callis had them at $10.9M right now, but that should go down once teams start earning supplemental picks.  I'm sure they'll look at the class and factor how much they want to spend on their first pick, but it will be harder to get a guy like Ruiz as late as they did last year if they've already landed a McCullers.  

Back to Appel, it's going to be hard for him to realistically expect the same kind of money he wanted last year, but I'm sure he'll try.  Maybe he turns a corner and doesn't just get good results, but dominates this year.  Even as a senior, there is enough talent to not write him off.  But, based on previous demands and performance, he has to remain a wild card.

Scouting report on Manaea:

http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/2012/08/13/2013-mlb-draft-profile-sean-manaea/

[juliogotay]

A top of the order lefty would be a nice addition. Don't see one in the organization currently.

[astrosfan76]

A top of the order lefty would be a nice addition. Don't see one in the organization currently.

Haven't seen one in a while.  Wandy grew into a quasi-one, but the last time we could look at someone in the minors and give them that label?  Hernandez? 

[juliogotay]

I just noticed that Plutko is at the bottom of the list. Maybe Astros have a second chance at him with the second round choice.

[jbm]

I sought out a Plutko game to see what we missed.  He could be thrown in with lots of college pitchers who have potential, but I had no regrets after watching his start. 

[moriartp]

If you're looking for an ace lefty, the Astros will very likely be in line to take Carlos Rodon first overall in 2014. A million things could change between now and then, but if that draft were held today, I don't think there's any doubt that he'd be the top guy.

[Jacksonian]

If you're looking for an ace lefty, the Astros will very likely be in line to take Carlos Rodon first overall in 2014. A million things could change between now and then, but if that draft were held today, I don't think there's any doubt that he'd be the top guy.

That won't even be a thought for the 13 draft.

Any mock this far out is useless though I find Manaea very intriguing.

[hostros7]

I hope there's a chance to see this SPX guy pitch against St. Thomas and bidge the younger this year.

[astrosfan76]

Could be worth monitoring...

http://newsok.com/high-schools-leedeys-drew-ward-leaning-toward-entering-mlb-draft/article/3716838

He's been labeled the top HS prospect in the '14 draft, if not the overall top prospect of that class.  6'4" 210 with huge offensive potential from the left side. 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=7207

[NeilT]

Who goes first in 2014?

[OregonStrosFan]

Who goes first in 2014?

3-PEAT!!! Uh, um, nevermind....

[astrosfan76]

I should have noted that the above-mentioned player is trying to graduate early and could definitely be a candidate for 1/1 in '13 if he does. 

[accougars]

Whitson is a high ceiling guy that this front office would seem to kick the tires on early in the draft.

[Reuben]

Haven't seen one in a while.  Wandy grew into a quasi-one, but the last time we could look at someone in the minors and give them that label?  Hernandez? 

This got me thinking. Has this team ever had a top of the rotation lefty? It seems as though the Astros have had an unprecedented imbalance towards RH SPs throughout their history. Wandy was not a #1 type, nor Knepper. Hampton and Pettitte arguably so, but weren't really here or at that level long enough to qualify, in my opinion. Ditto for Cuellar. Am I forgetting anyone? Meanwhile, all the great SPs in franchise history, from Dierker, Wilson etc on through Reynolds and Oswalt, all RHP.

[subnuclear]

Randy Johnson was another short timer.

[VirtualBob]

This got me thinking. Has this team ever had a top of the rotation lefty? It seems as though the Astros have had an unprecedented imbalance towards RH SPs throughout their history. Wandy was not a #1 type, nor Knepper. Hampton and Pettitte arguably so, but weren't really here or at that level long enough to qualify, in my opinion. Ditto for Cuellar. Am I forgetting anyone? Meanwhile, all the great SPs in franchise history, from Dierker, Wilson etc on through Reynolds and Oswalt, all RHP.

This is Texas.  They were all branded communists, because they were left handed.  That's the hand they use to ... nevermind.

[juliogotay]

This got me thinking. Has this team ever had a top of the rotation lefty? It seems as though the Astros have had an unprecedented imbalance towards RH SPs throughout their history. Wandy was not a #1 type, nor Knepper. Hampton and Pettitte arguably so, but weren't really here or at that level long enough to qualify, in my opinion. Ditto for Cuellar. Am I forgetting anyone? Meanwhile, all the great SPs in franchise history, from Dierker, Wilson etc on through Reynolds and Oswalt, all RHP.

I think you re-capped it pretty well and answered your own question. Cueller would have been that guy for a while if they had kept him but, Lord knows, the team desperately needed Curt Blefary who solved their first base problem for about twenty minutes.

[astrosfan76]

Here's a link to some free draft profiles.  I've probably referenced some of them before, but there are about a dozen or so writeups with videos. 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/11/3/3516582/2013-draft-profile-index

[astrosfan76]

MLB.com has some great coverage up, including a Top 50 list with videos of the players. 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121120&content_id=40372360&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=draft

[Mike S.]

Innuresting.  Former Houston Astro draftee Jacoby Jones is one spot after Cavan Biggio on that list.

[astrosfan76]

Brian T. Smith had an article up this morning, mainly about why the Astros won't be spending a lot of money this off-season.  But, I did find this line:

The Astros spent more than $10 million on their farm system in 2012 and will invest nearly $20 million next year.

Okay, the draft was ~$11-12M this year.  I don't recall any international signings at all worth noting, so the >$10M figure is right.  The lack of international signings can largely be attributed to the turnover in the international scouting department, so I get that.  The ~$20M figure for next year I'm hoping is accurate, but I'm having trouble figuring out how.  With no supplemental picks, the draft budget should be smaller next year (possibly $1M smaller).  International signings were capped at $2.9M this year. We should have the largest international budget next year, though don't know how high it will be.  Unlike the draft, international signings overages only receive a monetary penalty.  So, maybe they're planning for penalties in the budget.  If they are, more power to them.

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2012/12/01/astros-plan-for-frugal-2013-but-may-open-wallets-later/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter 

[roadrunner]

Brian T. Smith had an article up this morning, mainly about why the Astros won't be spending a lot of money this off-season.  But, I did find this line:

Okay, the draft was ~$11-12M this year.  I don't recall any international signings at all worth noting, so the >$10M figure is right.  The lack of international signings can largely be attributed to the turnover in the international scouting department, so I get that.  The ~$20M figure for next year I'm hoping is accurate, but I'm having trouble figuring out how.  With no supplemental picks, the draft budget should be smaller next year (possibly $1M smaller).  International signings were capped at $2.9M this year. We should have the largest international budget next year, though don't know how high it will be.  Unlike the draft, international signings overages only receive a monetary penalty.  So, maybe they're planning for penalties in the budget.  If they are, more power to them.

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2012/12/01/astros-plan-for-frugal-2013-but-may-open-wallets-later/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter 

This confused me as well.  He may not know what he's talking about though

[moriartp]

There might be other costs beyond player bonuses worked into that figure, too.

[astrosfan76]

There might be other costs beyond player bonuses worked into that figure, too.

You may be correct, with the way that it is worded, that extra costs beyond signing bonuses could drive up next year's numbers.  But, extra costs should be reflected with this year's figures, also.  So, unless he's just rounding to the nearest ten-million, something's off.  He either knows something we don't, doesn't know what he's talking about, or is just trying to get in good with the club with a fluff piece. 

[OregonStrosFan]

With no supplemental picks, the draft budget should be smaller next year (possibly $1M smaller).  International signings were capped at $2.9M this year. We should have the largest international budget next year, though don't know how high it will be.

The international (7/2) free agent budget increases significantly for the Astros in 2013 (as the worst 2012 team), but I can't track down the numbers for the life of me...

[Duman]

I am remembering that worst teams get 5 million to spend internationally in 2013. 

[astrosfan76]

I am remembering that worst teams get 5 million to spend internationally in 2013. 

Wow, did not realize it was going to be that high.  Your memory serves you well, though:

In accordance with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the international system now operates with money pools and penalties for teams that exceed its pools. For the 2012-13 signing period, every team will be able to spend $2.9 million without penalty. Starting in 2013-14, the pools will be based on each team's winning percentage in the prior season, with pools ranging from approximately $1.7 million to $4.8 million.

The "nearly $20M" figure still sounds a little high, but much more likely if they have ~$5M just for the international market.  I remember something about being able to go over their slot as long as the extra guys are given contracts smaller than $10k.  I don't remember the exact number they can give, but it was a fairly large amount.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120702&content_id=34319274&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120702&content_id=34319274&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

[moriartp]

Baseball Prospectus has posted Perfect Game's early draft top 100 (I didn't know those two outfits had partnered up, but it seems like a good move for both).

Here's the link. It's behind the pay wall, but Manaea-Stanek-Appel are 1-2-3. Former Houston draftees Jacoby Jones (33), Adam Plutko (79), and Aaron Blair (83) are on the list, and Cavan Biggio comes in at 62. It's basically the same story you've heard so far: no clear top talent, down year overall, solid depth in college pitching.

[jbm]

Thanks for the link.  I just assumed I would see Appel at the top of these lists.

[astrosfan76]

BA has one up, as well.  I don't have a subscription, but based on this article (and their tweets on the subject), Appel heads into the spring as the frontrunner again and they could see Manaea and Stanek going 1-2-3, with a chance that Frazier or Meadows sneaks in there.  They did have a couple of paragraphs of quotes from Mike Elias, who have an estimated $11.5M to work with:

The Astros join the 2009-10 Nationals as the only teams ever to have consecutive No. 1 overall picks. Mike Elias, in his first year as Houston's scouting director after serving as a special assistant to general manager Jeff Luhnow last year, said the club currently has eight to 10 candidates for the top choice. The Astros will let the spring play out before determining how they'll spread out their money.

"We're trying to keep the book as open as possible," Elias said. "We'll try to scout as many players as possible, and I don't think we'll narrow the pool until late in the process. We're approaching this whole thing as how to extract the most talent from the draft pool, from having 1-1 and having the largest bonus pool and then deciding how to deploy it."

http://ht.ly/2uCw0w

[toddthebod]

It's basically the same story you've heard so far: no clear top talent, down year overall, solid depth in college pitching.

This is so Astros that the team gets the first round draft pick two years in a row and in neither year is there someone like Strasburg or Harper or Price.  It would be great (for the team and the fans) to be able to to draft a player who is good enough to make the big leagues in 2 years or less.  I guess it's a good thing then that the team is going to have a third straight no. 1 pick.

[Andyzipp]

There's a rumor running around Houston that the Astros are sniffing around Kohl Stewart (RHP, St. Pius X HS).  Anyone national mentioning him?  I can't imagine he's 1:1, but he does have a big time arm.

[jbm]

The list above had him at 15

[hostros7]

This is so Astros that the team gets the first round draft pick two years in a row and in neither year is there someone like Strasburg or Harper or Price.  It would be great (for the team and the fans) to be able to to draft a player who is good enough to make the big leagues in 2 years or less.  I guess it's a good thing then that the team is going to have a third straight no. 1 pick.

To be fair, the Washington situation was the exception, not the rule.  Last 20 years of history that is relevant (i.e. excluding drafts where guys still considered prospects):

1990 - Chipper Jones
1991 - Brien Taylor
1992 - Nevin
1993 - A-Rod
1994 - Paul Wilson
1995 - Darin Erstad
1996 - Kris Benson
1997 - Matt Anderson (JD Drew was #2 and considered the better prospect but tough sign, IIRC)
1998 - Pat Burrell
1999 - Josh Hamilton
2000 - Adrian Gonzalez
2001 - Joe Mauer (Mark Prior #2, he of much hype)
2002 - Bryan Bullington
2003 - Delmon Young
2004 - Matt Bush
2005 - Justin Upton
2006 - Luke Hochevar
2007 - David Price
2008 - Tim Beckham
2009 - Strasburg
2010 - Harper


Of those guys, my guess was that only four or five were actually viewed more or less as "can't miss" (Chipper, A-Rod, Strasburg, Harper. . . Erstad may have been viewed that way as well at the time), but I didn't necessarily follow the MLB draft with great fervor pre-Astros really needing to be successful in it.  Interesting that it is about a 50% hit rate for all-star caliber guys (Chipper, Erstad, A-Rod, Hamilton, Gonzalez, Mauer, Upton, Price, Strasburg, Harper).  If the Astros get it wrong two plus times, the team will have a hard time overcoming it, I would imagine. 

[moriartp]

The Astros also have the extra advantage of having the largest international bonus pool next year (and we're all assuming 2014 as well). They'll be able to add a lot of depth. They may not have gotten Strasburg-Harper lucky, but there are other benefits to their situation to help offset that.

[moriartp]

There's a rumor running around Houston that the Astros are sniffing around Kohl Stewart (RHP, St. Pius X HS).  Anyone national mentioning him?  I can't imagine he's 1:1, but he does have a big time arm.

18th on BA's list. Here's their blurb:

Shows a low-to-mid 90s fastball and a power slider, but will be a tough sign away from his football (quarterback) commitment to Texas A&M.

If he drops out of the first round like McCullers did, the Astros will very likely have money to throw at him in the 2nd or later.

[astrosfan76]

“We have right now a list of eight names (being considered for the top pick),” Elias said. “We’re going to keep scouting those guys throughout the year. We’re going to keep our eyes on them and then maybe narrow that list.”


Elias won’t divulge his list of eight candidates for No. 1, but he acknowledges no high school pitcher is in the group.

Doesn't mean that someone else couldn't pop up in the spring, but that seems to quell any Stewart at 1-1 rumors. It also means that they aren't looking at any of the top HS lefties, like Gonslaves or Clarkin. Appel, Manaea, Stanek, Frazier, and Meadows seem like they'd be in that group, but after that? The Cardinals drafted Austin Wilson in 2010, so I wonder if there's still interest there.

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2013/02/10/astros-narrow-pool-for-no-1-pick-to-eight-players/

[jbm]

I saw Wilson listed high.  I have been able to see him sparingly the last two years.  I would be surprised if he was 1-1, but certainly not shocked.

[astrosfan76]

I saw Wilson listed high.  I have been able to see him sparingly the last two years.  I would be surprised if he was 1-1, but certainly not shocked.

I agree, his ceiling is huge and he's a guy you hope/wait to bust out. Between scouting him and Appel, the club should have regular charges in Palo Alto this season. What were your thoughts when you saw Wilson?

[jbm]

I saw him his freshman year against Texas.  Read that he was a five tool player who could have gone first round, so I kept an eye on him. My first impression is how he stood out physically from everyone on that field.  Was disappointed to see him in right instead of center and was further disappointed to see him break poorly on two flies and lack the burst to make the play.  He looked fine at the plate for a freshman.  Just one game, but while physically impressive, he was raw.

Last year, I'd tape the few Stanford games I could.  While I recall thinking that he looked better in the field, I honestly can't say I have particular evidence of improvement.  At the plate, he looked like a pretty mature hitter for a sophomore. 

In general, if I get multiple looks at a player over time, I just want to see progress.  Any amount.  It increases the likelihood that they approach their ceiling.  My assumption at least.  I'm not sure how high his ceiling actually is, but he looks like he is heading in that direction. 

[astrosfan76]

In general, if I get multiple looks at a player over time, I just want to see progress.  Any amount.  It increases the likelihood that they approach their ceiling.  My assumption at least.  I'm not sure how high his ceiling actually is, but he looks like he is heading in that direction. 

That's part of the enigma with him and, to a degree, other Stanford hitters. From what I've read, they're coached to have a strict line-drive, contact-oriented approach. I guess that's why you scout during summer leagues and have workouts for the players, but you're going to have to do a little more guesswork with his game power. He can run, but he's not a runner. He doesn't look like a high-average hitter, though he should be at least average. He has a good arm, but I'm not sure about his defense overall. But, it's the bat that will determine how high he goes.

Kris Bryant looks like a surer thing with the bat, but unless he makes big strides defensively at 3B, it will be hard to pick a right-handed future 1B with the first pick. Well, at least conventionally. Maybe they've done research that leads them to see safety in that type of player. 1B are generally the safest players to give long-term contracts to. But, you're not getting much value outside the bat. So, it better be a very good bat.

[roadrunner]

Anyone else seeing Appel on Friday open against Rice?

[NeilT]

From today's chronicle:

Nearly 40 scouts attended the game for a glimpse of Appel, the Cardinal ace who returned to school for his senior season and could be the No. 1 pick in this summer's Major League Baseball draft.

Appel displayed his coveted 97-mph fastball at times. But his season debut unraveled with pitches left up in the strike zone, a fastball that lacked control and a changeup he never quite got going.

"It was not my typical stuff," said Appel, who allowed five runs - two earned - and seven hits in five innings. "I just wasn't my usual self on the mound today."

[astrosfan76]

He's working on throwing his fastball inside more this season, so that could be part of the control problems. Still early, but that could be something to watch and may go a long ways to his dominance.

The other two top arms:

Junior Sean Manaea (0-1) pitched into the fifth inning, allowing four hits and one run with six strikeouts and three walks. The ISU southpaw was lifted in the fifth after allowing a leadoff walk to IPFW's Tyler Shepherd, who would come around to score on a fielding error with one out in the inning.

Manaea was throwing in the low-mid 90's, according to Twitter reports.

Stanek went 4 innings, allowing 2 hits and a walk, striking out 4. No word on how he looked.

http://www.gosycamores.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPID=7256&DB_OEM_ID=15200&ATCLID=206430661

[astrosfan76]

Stanek with a ho-hum start, needing 76 pitches to get through 3 innings. He gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks, striking out 4. His competition (at least SP-wise) for 1/1 fared much better on the day. Manaea made it through 6 innings against a good CoC lineup, allowing just 1 hit with 2 walks, striking out 10. He was up to 94 with a good slider.

As good as Manaea was, Appel was better, needing 105 pitches in a complete game against Fresno State. He gave up 1 run on 3 hits, walking 1 against 11 strikeouts. He had outings like this last season, particularly down the stretch, so he'll need to keep it up if he wants to improve on last year's draft selection. Well, that and improve his command and being more flexible with his bonus demands wouldn't hurt, either.

[astrosfan76]

Stanek was better this week, but he might be starting to look at 1/1 from the outside. His start Thursday lasted 5 2/3 innings, when he gave up 2 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits and 2 walks. He struck out 3 on 85 pitches. His overall numbers aren't bad, 2.84 ERA with 11K in 12 2/3 innings, but he hasn't been dominant. He's given up 11 hits and 5 walks in those 12+ innings. It's still early and he can turn it around, but he's been outclassed so far.

Manaea has been outclassing him through two starts and Appel has been fantastic so far, throwing in a 3-hitter against Texas last night. He took a no-hitter into the 6th for the second year in a row against Texas and finished the complete game giving up only 1 walk and those 3 hits against 14K (matching his career high). For the season, that gives him a 1.17 ERA with 18 base runners in 23 innings (13 hits/5 walks) and 28 strikeouts. I don't know what the scouting reports are saying, if he's doing a better job commanding his pitches, etc. But, he's seems to be doing something better.

I found this scouting report from last week's start. I haven't seen anything about yesterday's, yet.

http://mets.scout.com/2/1270307.html

[roadrunner]

Carlos Rondon has started to build a case to be 1.1

Does anyone remember if Correa's name had been thrown around yet last year at this time?  I know that nobody was thinking he would go 1 overall up to the week before the draft, but was he in the group of 8-10 guys that people were discussing from the start?

[jbm]

Is Rodon eligible? I thought he was a non-eligible sophomore. 

[roadrunner]

Is Rodon eligible? I thought he was a non-eligible sophomore. 

Oh, maybe.  Dammit

[astrosfan76]

Carlos Rondon has started to build a case to be 1.1

Does anyone remember if Correa's name had been thrown around yet last year at this time?  I know that nobody was thinking he would go 1 overall up to the week before the draft, but was he in the group of 8-10 guys that people were discussing from the start?

Rodon's definitely in the mix for 1/1 in '14. There are a couple of HS kids that are supposed to be pretty good, but Rodon's got to be the top guy right now. I wouldn't mind if we could take him this year.

Some of the PG guys were really high on Correa last year, especially their President. But, he wasn't looked at as a mainstream candidate for 1/1 at this point, from what I recall. Appel, Gausman, Zunino, and to a degree, Buxton were the guys I remember. Giolito had a lot of buzz before he went down, also. Zimmer was gaining a lot of traction, but I don't think he was really looked at as an option this early in the season. So, all this is early speculation. Clint Frazier has a decent shot and we will probably see other guys move up draft boards, as well. Tony Rizzotti out of Tulane is putting together a nice season and will be 21 in April, making him eligible as a sophomore this year. He could be this year's Zimmer.

[Mike S.]

Drew Ward is apparently eligible for the 2013 draft:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2013/03/drew-ward-eligible-for-2013-draft/

[astrosfan76]

Luhnow spent a couple of days on the trail this past week, Thursday, for sure, and based on comments about scouting on the club's off-days, apparently Wednesday, as well.  So, it wouldn't seem like he was scouting college pitching those days.  He made a comment about it being cold wherever he was, but it was cold over most of the country, so I'll try not to read anything into that. 

This weekend featured another rough start for Stanek, who went 4 1/3 innings, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and 5 walks, though he did strike out 5.  It could be something mechanically that can easily be fixed, but clubs may start leaning away from him if he doesn't start turning it around soon.  Manaea had a decent start on Saturday after two weeks off, going 6 innings, giving up 2 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks, striking out 8. 

The big story, again, was Appel, who didn't finish his start, but lasted 7 innings and struck out 15.  He gave up 3 runs (1 earned) on 4 hits and 1 walk.  His ERA now stands at 1.20 and he has peripherals of 12.9 K/9, 7.17 K/BB, and .77 WHIP.  Here are some quotes on him this season:

"He's become more of a baseball player at this point, trying to understand situations and trying to pitch out of situations," Filter (Stanford's coach) said. "He had a fantastic year, number-wise last year, and to try to improve upon that sometimes isn't really do-able. But he's tried to create more angle to the fastball and pitch both sides of the plate with the fastball and he's been able to do that so far this year."

#UNLV coach Tim Chambers on @StanfordBSB's Mark Appel: "He was like Roger Clemens out there. Holy smokes he's good."

The #Texas coaches said @StanfordBSB RHP Mark Appel was "Silly and ridiculous" last weekend in terms of his stuff.

The college hitters are starting to come around, though I'm not big on any of them.  Kris Bryant is now at .379/.556/.897 with 8 HR in 58 at-bats.  He has also walked 21 times, but has struck out 14 times, which is high.  He's made 4 errors, already.  It's still early, so those numbers can look better if he cuts down on them (and I think he will), but he's probably a right-handed 1B in the majors. 

Colin Moran has a ridiculous 18-3 BB/K ratio in 53 at-bats.  He's hitting .340, but it's mostly hollow.  He only has 4 extra-base hits, 2 HR and 2 doubles, with both of those HR coming Saturday in a game where his club scored 20 runs.  People have said that the power will come, but he doesn't seem to have enough projection to be even average at any of the positions he may end up at.  He's not a burner, or even fast (0 SB so far), so I'm not sure why he's even considered an elite prospect (this coming from pundits, I have no idea what the club thinks of him).   

[Jacksonian]

Luhnow spent a couple of days on the trail this past week, Thursday, for sure, and based on comments about scouting on the club's off-days, apparently Wednesday, as well.  So, it wouldn't seem like he was scouting college pitching those days.  He made a comment about it being cold wherever he was, but it was cold over most of the country, so I'll try not to read anything into that. 

This weekend featured another rough start for Stanek, who went 4 1/3 innings, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and 5 walks, though he did strike out 5.  It could be something mechanically that can easily be fixed, but clubs may start leaning away from him if he doesn't start turning it around soon.  Manaea had a decent start on Saturday after two weeks off, going 6 innings, giving up 2 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks, striking out 8. 

The big story, again, was Appel, who didn't finish his start, but lasted 7 innings and struck out 15.  He gave up 3 runs (1 earned) on 4 hits and 1 walk.  His ERA now stands at 1.20 and he has peripherals of 12.9 K/9, 7.17 K/BB, and .77 WHIP.  Here are some quotes on him this season:

The college hitters are starting to come around, though I'm not big on any of them.  Kris Bryant is now at .379/.556/.897 with 8 HR in 58 at-bats.  He has also walked 21 times, but has struck out 14 times, which is high.  He's made 4 errors, already.  It's still early, so those numbers can look better if he cuts down on them (and I think he will), but he's probably a right-handed 1B in the majors. 

Colin Moran has a ridiculous 18-3 BB/K ratio in 53 at-bats.  He's hitting .340, but it's mostly hollow.  He only has 4 extra-base hits, 2 HR and 2 doubles, with both of those HR coming Saturday in a game where his club scored 20 runs.  People have said that the power will come, but he doesn't seem to have enough projection to be even average at any of the positions he may end up at.  He's not a burner, or even fast (0 SB so far), so I'm not sure why he's even considered an elite prospect (this coming from pundits, I have no idea what the club thinks of him).   

Appel is a big story.  The other big story is Kevin Ziomek.  Lefty from Vandy.  2 straight complete games with double digit strikeouts in both games.  He's the fast riser early on.  If he continues like this through SEC play could be in as good a position to go #1 as any. 

[toddthebod]

Let's say they have the same skills, would the Astros be more likely to pick Appel over Ziomek because Appel is a senior and has less leverage?

[Jacksonian]

Let's say they have the same skills, would the Astros be more likely to pick Appel over Ziomek because Appel is a senior and has less leverage?

I haven't seen enough from this group to know better.

[astrosfan76]

Appel is a big story.  The other big story is Kevin Ziomek.  Lefty from Vandy.  2 straight complete games with double digit strikeouts in both games.  He's the fast riser early on.  If he continues like this through SEC play could be in as good a position to go #1 as any. 

He's only 88-92 with his fastball; do you see someone with that velocity (even from the left side) going that high?  Not saying he isn't a great pitcher, he obviously is, and he's deceptive with good secondaries.  He does provide an interesting contrast to Appel, though.  SEC play will be a good test for him.

[astrosfan76]

Let's say they have the same skills, would the Astros be more likely to pick Appel over Ziomek because Appel is a senior and has less leverage?

There's speculation that without compensation picks this year, that the club could play the draft straight this year.  That doesn't mean they won't try to save as much money as possible at 1/1 (and that Correa wasn't their top guy last year), but they may not save $2.8M with 1/1, either.  But, that's just speculation without inside knowledge, from what I've read.  FWIW, I doubt the club knows what they're going to do at this point. 

If a player has a smart advisor, they'll look at where their client will go if they pass.  If 1/1 is interested, but no one else in the top 5 is showing much interest, then the player would have less leverage.  I don't know who Ziomek's advisor is and what figure he'll ask, but I'm skeptical that Appel is going to come at too big of a discount, especially if he continues to dominate.  He's been answering a lot of the question marks teams had last year and someone at the top will bite. 

[astrosfan76]

Jonathan Gray out of Oklahoma U is someone who is really turning heads. This from a BA chat:

Aaron Fitt: I mean, I know it's high praise to compare him to a former No. 1 overall pick, but he reminded me of Gerrit Cole. Just the way he held that high-90s velocity deep into the game (and generated that kind of heat with minimal effort), the way he could throw his slider in any count, the way he mixed in a nice changeup — it was very impressive. I saw a lot of Cole during his UCLA days, and he never hit triple digits on the BA Stalker gun as often as Gray did Saturday. He sure looked like a top 10 pick to me.

I've seen others say he looks like he's pitched his way into the top 10.

[jbm]

I just want to say that I appreciate the updates and info y'all provide in this thread.

[juliogotay]

I just want to say that I appreciate the updates and info y'all provide in this thread.

Me too.

[roadrunner]

Yes keep them coming

[Ebby Calvin]

I just want to say that I appreciate the updates and info y'all provide in this thread.

Same

[astrosfan76]

I just want to say that I appreciate the updates and info y'all provide in this thread.

No problem, the draft and minor-league teams are what gives me hope for the club these days. 

[astrosfan76]

The college hitters are starting to come around, though I'm not big on any of them.  Kris Bryant is now at .379/.556/.897 with 8 HR in 58 at-bats.  He has also walked 21 times, but has struck out 14 times, which is high.  He's made 4 errors, already.  It's still early, so those numbers can look better if he cuts down on them (and I think he will), but he's probably a right-handed 1B in the majors.   

Read earlier that Bryant is now a RF (and that it seems he'll end up there as a pro).  He's been around the field this season, but has mostly settled into the outfield since the first week of the season.  He hasn't made an error in a few weeks now, either. 

[astrosfan76]

Last night saw arguably the top two HS players, Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows (both OF), square up in Georgia.  Meadows looks the part more than Frazier, standing 6'3" 200 versus 6'0" 190.  They're often linked because of their position, geographical proximity, and elite status.  Personally, I like Frazier more based on a more-advanced hitting approach and very quick swing that generates great power (24 HR last season).  There are "concerns" that he'll eventually move to a corner, but his arm is good enough for RF if he does move. 

Anyway, back to the game.  There were obviously dozens of scouts, directors, and GMs in attendance, plus rabid fans that made it seem more like a March college basketball game than a high school baseball game.  Meadows didn't see much in the game, going 0-1 with a walk, HBP, and strikeout.  Frazier, though, stole the show, breaking a 2-2 tie with a 3-run moon shot.  He later muscled another HR out that just kept carrying.  For the record, Grayson's starter was a D-1 quality pitcher, working in the upper-80's, so Frazier wasn't feasting on weak competition. 

Here's an article and video from the game:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/high-school/2013/03/frazier-home-runs-rock-loganville-grayson-showdown/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMyruaBcjCA&feature=youtu.be

[astrosfan76]

Stanford was on break last week, so no Appel report. Manaea was involved in the week's most-anticipated putcher's duel, going against fellow early-round pick Tom Windle of Minnesota. Manaea hasn't been as dominant this season, with lower velocity, especially in the later innings. It's still not as high as the summer (92-94) and the secondaries aren't as crisp, but they're still good. Perhaps he'll warm up with the weather. Perfect Game had scouts on-hand for the start and had a good writeup.

Jonathan Gray tossed a 5-hitter against Northwestern over the weekend, striking out 12 and walking 0. I've seen him talked about in the 5-10 range, but if he keeps pitching like this, I can see him possibly going higher. I'd still take Appel over him at this point, but a pitcher who can pitch with that velocity is going to go really early.

The other big story of the week was Kris Bryant, who remains stuck in beast mode. Over his last 11 games, he is hitting .465 with 11 home runs. For the season, he is at .386/.561/.986 with 12 home runs and 24 RBI. Oh, and he leads D-1 with 26 walks.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=8165

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/2013/03/three-strikes-week-five-3/

[Reuben]

Thanks for the write-up. I was just about to post a snippet of BA's blurb of the Manaea game, but what you wrote was more relevant.

By the way, I'm gonna go ahead and voice my gut feeling that I think they're gonna take Appel 1/1 this year.

[astrosfan76]

Thanks for the write-up. I was just about to post a snippet of BA's blurb of the Manaea game, but what you wrote was more relevant.

By the way, I'm gonna go ahead and voice my gut feeling that I think they're gonna take Appel 1/1 this year.

At this point, I'll agree with that and have no problem with the pick. Last year, I was thrilled when they took Correa over him, but it's hard to argue that he's not the best guy this year.

[moriartp]

By the way, I'm gonna go ahead and voice my gut feeling that I think they're gonna take Appel 1/1 this year.

I'm with you there. Hard to argue with his track record and present performance.

[Reuben]

I'm with you there. Hard to argue with his track record and present performance.

Right. I know they're theoretically all about "take the best player available, regardless of how quickly he'll reach the majors" but, if he keeps dominating this season, it's hard to ignore the very real possibility that he could be fronting the rotation by 2015, just when they could be starting to get pretty good.

I mean, he's got one extra year of experience than most college pitchers; he seems like he'll be pretty polished by draft day. And I think Luhnow and Co. can "smell" competitiveness now a lot better than they could last June. I could see a mid-to-late 2014 callup with the potential to have settled in before Opening Day 2015. Cosart, Folty, and Tropeano all could be in the rotation by then, but none of them quite have Appel's Ace potential. It's got to be tempting.

[astrosfan76]

Right. I know they're theoretically all about "take the best player available, regardless of how quickly he'll reach the majors" but, if he keeps dominating this season, it's hard to ignore the very real possibility that he could be fronting the rotation by 2015, just when they could be starting to get pretty good.

I mean, he's got one extra year of experience than most college pitchers; he seems like he'll be pretty polished by draft day. And I think Luhnow and Co. can "smell" competitiveness now a lot better than they could last June. I could see a mid-to-late 2014 callup with the potential to have settled in before Opening Day 2015. Cosart, Folty, and Tropeano all could be in the rotation by then, but none of them quite have Appel's Ace potential. It's got to be tempting.

Despite being a college senior, he's not old for the draft class.  He won't turn 22 until July 15th, which puts him only 11 days older than Stanek, for example.  Factor in how quickly he'll reach the majors relative to others, as well.  It's not out of the question that he could be sent to AA after signing, though if they don't have a problem with it, he could stay in California for the summer, also.  Plus, at this point, I don't know that he's not the most-talented player available.  That's something I'm sure they're having discussions about. 

[Jacksonian]

Despite being a college senior, he's not old for the draft class.  He won't turn 22 until July 15th, which puts him only 11 days older than Stanek, for example.  Factor in how quickly he'll reach the majors relative to others, as well.  It's not out of the question that he could be sent to AA after signing, though if they don't have a problem with it, he could stay in California for the summer, also.  Plus, at this point, I don't know that he's not the most-talented player available.  That's something I'm sure they're having discussions about. 

That makes him just 9 months younger than Jordan Lyles.

[Ebby Calvin]

That makes him just 9 months younger than Jordan Lyles.

I keep forgetting this.  Good perspective on Lyles.

[VirtualBob]

I keep forgetting this.  Good perspective on Lyles.

Which might justify some slack over in the game zone.  He would be on the young side for AA.

[MusicMan]

Which might justify some slack over in the game zone.  He would be on the young side for AA.

Looks like where he should be.

[NeilT]

Which might justify some slack over in the game zone.  He would be on the young side for AA.

We don't cut no stinking slack.

[Ron Brand]

You'll beg to pay for what you already know! Give me Slack or KILL ME!

[austro]

You'll beg to pay for what you already know! Give me Slack or KILL ME!

You'll get no slack! And you'll like it!

[VirtualBob]

Tough crowd.

[Reuben]

Appel had another nice stat line vs. Utah on Friday: 8 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 11 K

This is a decent profile/"scouting" piece (warning: Bleacher Rep link).

Appel is now 3-2 with a 1.18 ERA over five starts this season. He's allowed only 23 hits, seven walks (1.65 walks per nine) and one home run while striking out 54 (12.78 K/9) in 38 innings of work.

Last season, he went 10-2 with a 2.56 ERA over 16 starts. He allowed 97 hits, 30 walks (2.19 BB/9) and three home runs while striking out 130 (9.50 K/9) over 123 innings.

[astrosfan76]

Appel had another nice stat line vs. Utah on Friday: 8 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 11 K

Kind of a bland weak overall for the top college prospects.  Appel's line was nice (1 of the runs was unearned) and did nothing to hurt his stock.  Jonathan Gray pitched 9 innings (game went into extras), giving up 3 hits, 1 walk, 2 runs (1 unearned), while striking out 12.  Manaea was okay, especially considering the weather, going 7 innings on Thursday, giving up 3 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 8. 

On the offensive side, Bryant went 4-11 on the weekend, driving in 3 batters, while scoring twice on his own.  Of those 4 hits, none left the yard, but he did collect a double and a triple.  He added a steal for good measure.  By adding 3 walks and not striking out over the weekend, his BB/K ratio is now at 29/16 over 23 games and a slash line of .383/.554/.938. 

[astrosfan76]

With Easter weekend, Thursday has become Friday, with several of the top arms pitching yesterday. Appel, again, had one of the best starts of the day. His basic numbers were great: Complete Game Shutout, only 4 singles and a walk against 10 strikeouts. That he did this against a Washington State team that ranks second in NCAA in batting average (.335), third in slugging (.486), and leads the Pac-12 in doubles, home runs, XBH, and OBP makes it even more impressive. He was holding at 97MPH all night long. The only downside that I've seen is that he hit 3 batters in the game, bringing his total on the season to four. Not a huge red flag, though, given his season total and that he only walked one batter in the game.

Jonathan Gray was dominant again, as well. The burly right-hander threw a Complete Game as well, allowing 1 run on two hits, walking none, and striking out 12.  Right now, he has to be a legitimate option at 1/1. Personally, I'd still take Appel, but Gray has that dominant fastball, a great slider, and a good-enough change up that make him a potential ace. Some team in the top five is going to be happy to select him.

Manaea and Stanek (whose last start had some putting him back toward the top come draft time) both pitch tonight.

[Nate Colbert]

Really enjoyed your terrific weekly updates. Thanks for doing 'em!

[OregonStrosFan]

Really enjoyed your terrific weekly updates. Thanks for doing 'em!

Agreed, thank you for doing these!

[moriartp]

Jim Callis has the bonus pool info. Astros have the most money at $11,698,800.

[astrosfan76]

Jim Callis has the bonus pool info. Astros have the most money at $11,698,800.

$500K more than last year and we don't have a supplemental pick.  We have over $1M more than the Cubs, who have a little over $10.5M to spend. 

[moriartp]

I just realized that thanks to the new compensation rules, the Astros' second pick this year be at #40 overall, which is actually one slot higher than where they got McCullers last year. Their third pick will be #74 overall (they got Fontana at 61 in 2012, so that's where the biggest difference lies).

[astrosfan76]

Clint Frazier tweeting that he is meeting with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer tomorrow and being taken to a Cubs game on Saturday. Apparently, torture is part of their recruiting process.

[OregonStrosFan]

Via Twitter:

Sean Feist ‏@native_astro
RT @DanMKirby Mark Appel's last 6 starts: 0.88 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 68 K/6 BB over 50.2 IP. (8.4 IP per start) #mlbdraft #Stanford #Astros

[astrosfan76]

Friday wasn't Appel's most impressive start from a stats standpoint or from a stuff standpoint, but he showed maturity and moxie in the start.  He used 6-pitch innings in the 7th and 8th to help him come one out away from a complete game.  He was pulled with 2 outs in the 9th after allowing runners to reach 1st and 2nd, ending the game having given up 2 runs on 7 hits and 1 walk.  He struck out 7 for the game. 

Elsewhere, Jonathan Gray won his start over Texas, going 6 2/3 innings, allowing 1 unearned run on 7 hits and 2 walks, striking out 8.  Sean Manaea also won his start this past weekend, giving up just 5 hits in 6 shutout innings, striking out 9.  With those 6 shutout innings, his ERA has dropped below 1 (.99) for the season.  One caveat, his start was pushed back to Sunday due to a minor injury.  He obviously was able to start and compete, but it may be something to watch. 

[OregonStrosFan]

Really appreciating the updates, thank you!

[astrosfan76]

John Manuel and Aaron Fitt from BA did a Google Hangout today and discussed the draft, focusing on the top college guys (broken down by pitchers, infielders, and outfielders. It has some good stuff if you've got 16 minutes, but I found the rundown on pitchers the most interesting.

Out of the pitchers, they talk about Appel, Gray, and Manaea, with the focus on Appel and Gray. Quick breakdown is that Gray's velocity is better, but Appel has gotten better at keeping his fastball down (which was an "issue" last season). Appel's slider is better and more consistent, a consistent put away pitch. Both have good changes, neither seemed to be given an edge. Manaea hasn't been as sharp as he was in the Cape. His velocity is down and his slider isn't as crisp. The weather could be a factor, but right now, he's the #3 in that group.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-top-25-google-hangout-april-8

[bubba]

Ryan Stanek looked good this weekend vs. number 1 LSU.  6 2/3 shutout innings with 4 hits, 3 walks and 5 strike-outs. 

[astrosfan76]

Ryan Stanek looked good this weekend vs. number 1 LSU.  6 2/3 shutout innings with 4 hits, 3 walks and 5 strike-outs. 

Good performance against a great offense.  Goes to further his case as a big-game pitcher and he's been not great, but better over the past month.  I just don't know what you do to get a pitcher in a reasonably warm state to not start out so slowly.  I get a guy like Manaea taking a little longer to be sharp, but Stanek is notorious despite living in Arkansas.  He'll probably move back up draft boards over the next 1 1/2 months, but if I didn't have an answer for the slow starts, I'd be wary of taking him too high.

Elsewhere in college baseball, Gray had the best performance out of the top guys, going against Baylor.  He lasted 8 innings, allowing just 1 run, 4 hits, and 2 walks, against 10 Ks.  He lost the game, but was very strong with, according to Kendall Rogers (PG), some major scouting brass in attendance.  He retired 16 in a row at one point and topped out at 99 MPH, 96 MPH on his last pitch in the 8th. 

Appel wasn't at his best, but still managed to get the win.  Like Gray, he lasted 8 innings and walked 2, but gave up 4 runs (3 earned) and 7 hits, against 7 Ks facing Washington.  Speaking of Manaea, he was able to get in 6 2/3 against Creighton.  The two runs, 5 hits, and 8 K's were nice, but he walked 4 in the process. 

Among the hitters, Kris Bryant continues to see his average drop, going 1/8 on the weekend, though the one hit did clear the fence.  In his defense, he is seeing nothing to hit, being walked 6 times over the weekend, striking out only once.  San Diego wisely put him hitting leadoff on Saturday and Sunday to take advantage of Pepperdine's strategy.  On the season, Bryant has walked 43 times against 26 Ks in 35 games. 

I still don't like Colin Moran anywhere near 1/1, but those who have seen him think he'll be fine at 3B, making the plays he needs to, even if he doesn't look graceful doing it.  So, he does have some defensive value to add to his bat.  He now has a 35/8 BB/K ratio on the season while hitting .401 with more pop (9 HR) than I expected.  He has 56 RBI over 36 games.  With Skye Bolt going down, probably for the rest of the season, the Tar Heels will need him to keep up that pace.   

[Reuben]

Awesome breakdown yet again, thanks '76!

[OregonStrosFan]

ESPN story on Jonathan Gray: LINK

[NeilT]

ESPN story on Jonathan Gray: LINK

Looks like a good kid.

[OregonStrosFan]

Keith Law posted the second installment of his "Future 50 for 2013" (04/18/13) - his ranking of the top 50 prospects for the 2013 draft.  (Link to version 1.0 of Law's 'Future 50' (03/14/13)).

Here is a list of his most recent top 10, with previous rankings in parenthesis. He notes that Appel / Gray are clearly the top 2, but "after these two guys, you could go n a lot of different directions. There is no clear No. 3."

1. Stanford RHP Mark Appel (1)
2. Oklanhoma RHP Jonathan Gray (8)
3. HS L/L OF Austin Meadows (3)
4. Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea (2)
5. HS RHP Kohl Stewart (14)
6. San Diego R/R 3B/OF Kris Bryant (6)
7. Nevada RHP Braden Shipley (10)
8. HS R/R OF Client Frazier (7)
9. Arkansas RHP Ryne Stanek (4)
10. HS L/R SS J. P. Crawford (13)

Out of his top 10:
11. Stanford R/R OF Austin Wilson (5)
15. HS R/R C Jon Denney (9)

[BUWebguy]

Probably not new news, but McTaggart tweeted this morning that they are looking at six potential candidates.
https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/326043515152896000

[NeilT]

Probably not new news, but McTaggart tweeted this morning that they are looking at six potential candidates.
https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/326043515152896000

For 2013, or 2014?

[astrosfan76]

Probably not new news, but McTaggart tweeted this morning that they are looking at six potential candidates.
https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/326043515152896000

I remember hearing that number a while back. Doesn't mean it's the same ones, though. Gray and Appel are obviously in the mix and I read last week that they've "done their homework" on Kohl Stewart. Luhnow mentioned a couple if months ago that no high schol pitchers were on the list, but again, that doesn't mean the list hasn't changed, or that he's not just someone they hope will fall. Plus, keeping the number high only helps leverage later on.

[moriartp]

Back in February Elias said they were looking at eight players. I assume Appel and Gray are now their top two guys, but they're wise to do their homework and keep their options open.


Callis on twitter last week:

@skin_graph: If Appel and Gray were on the board and you could save $1 mil by taking Gray, would you do it?

@jimcallisBA: Would be tempted to.


Fun stuff. Can't wait for June.

[astrosfan76]

And a quick weekly college roundup:

Gray dominated at home against UNO on Friday, pitching 6 shutout innings, allowing only 2 hits and striking out 10.  He only threw 88 pitches in the game (67 strikes), so he should have been able to go deeper (weather?). 

Appel was okay in his start, pitching well enough for the win (which he got), but not up to his usual standard.  On the night, he pitched 6 2/3 innings, allowing 3 runs (2 earned), 7 hits, and walking 2, against 6 strikeouts. 

On the offensive side, Bryant was the stud performer, going 5-10 on the weekend (plus 5 walks).  Of those 5 hits, 4 were for extra-bases, a double and 3 HR.  He is now up to 20 HR on the season with a 49-27 BB/K ratio in 39 games, helping him sport a .353/.529/.897 split.  Moran went 2-10 on the weekend.

[OregonStrosFan]

On the offensive side, Bryant was the stud performer, going 5-10 on the weekend (plus 5 walks).  Of those 5 hits, 4 were for extra-bases, a double and 3 HR.  He is now up to 20 HR on the season with a 49-27 BB/K ratio in 39 games, helping him sport a .353/.529/.897 split.

I've not been paying particularly close attention to NCAA 2012 and 2013 HR numbers vs. 'pre-bat change' NCAA HR numbers of say 2010 and 2011 (other than enough to note that HRs are way down).  Do you have any feel for what Bryant's 20 HRs this season might've looked like with the previous bats?!?

[astrosfan76]

I've not been paying particularly close attention to NCAA 2012 and 2013 HR numbers vs. 'pre-bat change' NCAA HR numbers of say 2010 and 2011 (other than enough to note that HRs are way down).  Do you have any feel for what Bryant's 20 HRs this season might've looked like with the previous bats?!?

Hard to tell. Numbers don't seem as suppressed as they were last year. With a guy like Bryant, he just hits the ball so hard, he probably wouldn't see a huge jump. If it looks like it might go, it's going 400'. But, honestly, I don't follow the college game closely enough to really judge.

On a side note, McTaggart's latest includes 4 of the 6 that the club is considering: Appel, Gray, Manaea, and Bryant. No shockers there. May be safe to guess that the other two are prep players. I like the list, either way.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130422&content_id=45471096&notebook_id=45496122&vkey=notebook_hou&c_id=hou

[Navin R Johnson]

 Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo 2h
"Make of it what you will--The Astros are holding their pre-draft workout not in Houston but at Grayson HS in Georgia Austin Meadows' HS"

[Reuben]

Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo 2h
"Make of it what you will--The Astros are holding their pre-draft workout not in Houston but at Grayson HS in Georgia Austin Meadows' HS"

That certainly is odd/telling, but didn't they hold pre-draft workouts in several places around the country last year?

[OregonStrosFan]

That certainly is odd/telling, but didn't they hold pre-draft workouts in several places around the country last year?

Yes, including 'somewhere' in Georgia...  TCB has a brief discussion on Gammon's Tweet (LINK).

[astrosfan76]

In addition to Appel, Gray, Manaea, and Bryant (who were named by McTaggart earlier this week), Jonathan Mayo rounds out the Astros' six candidates for 1/1 with Frazier and Meadows.  Those names shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.  On a related note, Manaea is going to miss his turn this weekend with a hip injury. 

http://minors.mlblogs.com/2013/04/26/astros-looking-at-six-for-top-pick-in-the-draft/

[astrosfan76]

The club has made this easier by narrowing down the candidates, so I'll focus on those players and any other noteworthy performances.  Appel was a tough-luck loser over the weekend, giving up 2 runs (1 earned) in a walk-off loss.  He allowed 8 hits and 2 walks against 9 Ks.  Johnathan Gray was stingy in his start, getting the win with 7 1/3 innings of 1 run ball.  He only allowed 2 hits and 2 walks against 7 Ks on the night.  Manaea missed his start with a hip injury.  Kris Bryant went 3-11 on the weekend, including his 22nd HR (which reportedly hit half-way up the light tower).  He is now at .346/.517/.865 on the season.

[astrosfan76]

PG did a roundtable discussion on their top 3 prospects for the draft.  The consensus was that there was no consensus.  Their picks broke down like this (there were 6 voters):

Gray-2 1st-place votes, 1 2nd-place vote
Appel-1 1st-place vote, 2 2nd-place vote, 1 3rd-place vote
Frazier-1 1st-place vote, 2 2nd-place votes
Bryant-1 1st-place vote, 4 3rd-place votes
Manaea-1 1st-place vote
Robert Kaminsky-1 2nd-place vote

Their president, Jerry Ford, really was sold on Correa last year, even before he started gaining traction closer to the draft.  He is the one who cast the Kaminsky vote, which seemed really outside the bubble.  He is really impressed with his curveball (which he says is as good a pitch as any in this draft), being advanced, and good velocity (can hit mid-90's). 

What I was more interested in, was his thoughts on Frazier.  He is admittedly pro-HS player when it comes to picks, but he seems quite fond of the kid:

1. Clint Frazier: I hate to think what Frazier would do if he went to college. We have seen all the top guys (1-1) in the past. In some ways he is better than most of them and he is similar in other ways. Others may look the part a bit more, but the tools are what separates Frazier from the pack. And he might use those tools as good as any high school player ever. This kid loves the stage and has very unusual skills. 

I would like to hear his thoughts on Correa vs. Frazier.  Granted, they are different players.  They play different positions, have different body types, etc.  But, what it is that he sees in Frazier that makes him better than the others?  I know he has a very quick bat and uses that to hit the ball very hard.  Is his intention that Frazier gets the most out of his tools?  I find it hard to imagine his power is greater than Prince Fielder's was at PG events.  I'm a fan of Frazier and wouldn't mind if he went 1/1, but I could say that about Appel, Gray, and Bryant, also.  I'm just curious what sets him apart.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=8351

[Ebby Calvin]

Great info, AF76.  Thanks.

[Reuben]

There was an article in the Sunday NY Times about Bryant. Seems like a kid with a really good head on his shoulders. They had some quotes from his coach, who seems to think Kris hung the moon; most interesting to me was he thought Bryant could be an adequate big-league 3B, but a possible Gold Glover in RF. I don't think I've read anything else positive about his defense other than his arm being good.

[astrosfan76]

Interview by Kendall Rogers with Mark Appel, for anyone interested.  Nothing earth-shattering, but he talks about changes he's made this season and his approach.  As usual, he comes across as an intelligent, thoughtful guy. 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=8376

[roadrunner]

Keith Law said yesterday in his chat that he iss hearing the Astros are leaning towards striking a deal with Gray to save money for the next pick at 40.

[Jacksonian]

Keith Law said yesterday in his chat that he iss hearing the Astros are leaning towards striking a deal with Gray to save money for the next pick at 40.

I hate that I agree with Law, but my sense for the past month has been if the draft were today it would be Gray.

[Reuben]

I take it Gray is not advised by Bora$$?

[roadrunner]

I hate that I agree with Law, but my sense for the past month has been if the draft were today it would be Gray.

Law said if it were his decision he would take Appel over Gray + $$

[OregonStrosFan]

Law said if it were his decision he would take Appel over Gray + $$

Law's observations from Appel's appearance last night: (LINK: Insider content, only partial 'highlights' noted below)

Appel was dominant for stretches Friday night, missing bats with all three pitches, including the best changeup I've ever seen him throw. He came out sitting 95 in the first inning and held it all night, working 93-96 mph and hitting 97 once...in the seventh inning. The pitch has a little late life but is effective mostly because he commands the pitch well, working down in the zone most of the time but occasionally throwing it above the zone for swings and misses...

His changeup was a 70 pitch at times, 82-85 with action and great arm speed...until he suddenly lost his feel for it in the seventh. His slider was also plus, best at 84-87 when it had big-time tilt, although it was less sharp when he tried to back-door it to hitters, losing velocity and coming in slurvier.

[OregonStrosFan]

Jonathan Mayo: Who's No. 1? Six leading candidates for first Draft pick

[astrosfan76]

Nothing more to add on Appel, who was great in his start.  Gray was strong, as well, going 8 innings, allowing 9 hits, 3 runs (2 earned), a walk, and 6 strikeouts.  He wasn't at his sharpest, especially early on, where he had trouble getting the ball down.  Frankie Pilliere was there for the start and was impressed with Gray's ability to hold his velocity late, hitting 97 in the 8th at 110 pitches.  The ability to hold that kind of velocity that late reminded him of Verlander.  

Manaea didn't do anything to help his case in his start, needing 82 pitches for 4 innings.  He only allowed 2 hits and 1 run while striking out 5, but he walked 4 in the process.  If it weren't for the promise that he showed last summer, it's hard to imagine him being considered as high as he has this season.

Bryant only went 1-9, but even in a down weekend, he still reached base in 1/4 of his plate appearances, thanks to 3 walks.  He stole his 7th base and his lone hit cleared the fence for his 23rd HR.  

[astrosfan76]

Bryant goes 3-5 today in a loss to UNLV, adding HR 24 and 25. I don't know who's going to end up drafting. him, but he's going to make some team very happy. Such a threat.

[Reuben]

Bryant goes 3-5 today in a loss to UNLV, adding HR 24 and 25. I don't know who's going to end up drafting. him, but he's going to make some team very happy. Such a threat.

So if you think Bryant is the next Troy Glaus, is that worth taking 1-1?

[pots]

So if you think Bryant is the next Troy Glaus, is that worth taking 1-1?

Current year:
http://usdtoreros.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2012-2013/teamcume.html

Profile and first 2 years:
http://usdtoreros.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/kris_bryant_740912.html

He's progressed really nicely in his 3 years at college.  This years stats are amazing.  851 slugging.  506 OBP.  56 BB to just 31 K.  3B is not an area of strength in the minors.  If the Stros decide to take him, he might bump Singleton for the top spot in the prospect list.

Hard to argue against Gray or Appel either though.  Appel being polished enough to possibly help out in 2015 and Gray nipping 100 on the gun. 

The only thing I'd like to see them do is stay away from the HS players in this one.  If you want to compete in 2015, get someone who can help with that.

[astrosfan76]

So if you think Bryant is the next Troy Glaus, is that worth taking 1-1?

That's the $6M question.  I think he's a legitimate option, but, you have to really believe in the bat.  He's not going to be a high-average hitter, but he won't be Chris Carter, either.  You'll get an average hitter with above-average strike-zone command and a little speed, most likely in RF.  He will hit for lots of power, though.  If you value power highly, he's going to rank high on your list.  In our case, if you dream on Springer, Singleton, Correa, and Bryant combining for 110-120 HR/season, then maybe you go with him. If you think he's going to hit 400+ HR in his career with a quick learning curve, the argument is there for 1/1.  Slightly off-topic, but Callis would have had Bryant #4 among position players last season, behind Buxton, Correa, and Zunino, for reference.

Back to this year, I really like the college pitchers, as well.  I wouldn't bring him up right away, but I don't have too much pause thinking that Appel could step into the rotation right now and improve it.  Don't pick him just because he's a quick fix, but he very well could be the best player in the draft; very good fastball (esp. when he keeps it down and commands the inside corner), excellent slider, good changeup.  Gray is right there with him and you have to love the fastball (though the command isn't always as good).  That consistent velocity doesn't come around often and he's not just a thrower.  

I honestly don't know who I would take if it was my pick.  Granted, I'd have a lot more resources & information to go on, but I really like those three (plus Frazier) and could choose any of them.

[astrosfan76]

The only thing I'd like to see them do is stay away from the HS players in this one.  If you want to compete in 2015, get someone who can help with that.

For the most part, I agree.  I think BPA should always be the mantra, but if none of the HS players separates themselves, I'd lean towards a college player.  I wouldn't go HS, just to go HS.  An arm like Stewart's, which is gaining steam, sounds nice, but is his ceiling higher than what you can get from Gray or Appel?  I haven't read anything to suggest that it is.  I'm not a huge Meadows fan, the reports say that he should grow into average power with above-average tools, elsewhere.  I just don't get excited about his profile.  I do like Frazier, and won't knock him because he's not 6'2" or a burner.  He's a bit of a free-swinger, but is otherwise a good all-around player with a standout tool, his power.  He tends to rise to the occasion, performing well at showcases and tournaments, plus games like the one against Meadows, where he hit two massive HR.  He's probably the only HS player I'd feel comfortable with.

[pots]

The scariest thing about Bryant might be the Astros History.

They once drafted a 3rd baseman out of college who in 219 at bats in his last year hit .402 with a .530 OBP, 26 HRs and 20 doubles, slugged .795, walked 65 times to 34 Ks.  Not to mention had the exact same 7 for 11 in stoelen base attempts that Bryant has. 

[Reuben]

The scariest thing about Bryant might be the Astros History.

They once drafted a 3rd baseman out of college who in 219 at bats in his last year hit .402 with a .530 OBP, 26 HRs and 20 doubles, slugged .795, walked 65 times to 34 Ks.  Not to mention had the exact same 7 for 11 in stoelen base attempts that Bryant has. 

Who, Nevin? Or was he a C in college?

[pots]

Who, Nevin? Or was he a C in college?

Listed as a third baseman on the All-Tournament team of the 1992 college world series
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_College_World_Series

[pots]

Nevin did have a few real good years.  Just not for the Stros, and that other guy did just a bit better.

[astrosfan76]

The scariest thing about Bryant might be the Astros History.

They once drafted a 3rd baseman out of college who in 219 at bats in his last year hit .402 with a .530 OBP, 26 HRs and 20 doubles, slugged .795, walked 65 times to 34 Ks.  Not to mention had the exact same 7 for 11 in stoelen base attempts that Bryant has. 

Didn't he have maturity/makeup issues, though?  Bryant, by all accounts, has great makeup (as do Gray & Appel).  Nevin wasn't really a bad pick, as much as he wasn't the best pick, which, according to Newhouser & everyone else in retrospect, was Jeter. I'm sure Luhnow & Co. have mines of information on which positions/profiles are the safest/most volatile.  But, if Bryant is viewed as the best player, then I'd think they would have to go with him, regardless of the success of a pick 20 years ago. 

[jbm]

Back to this year, I really like the college pitchers, as well.  I wouldn't bring him up right away, but I don't have too much pause thinking that Appel could step into the rotation right now and improve it.  Don't pick him just because he's a quick fix, but he very well could be the best player in the draft; very good fastball (esp. when he keeps it down and commands the inside corner), excellent slider, good changeup.  Gray is right there with him and you have to love the fastball (though the command isn't always as good).  That consistent velocity doesn't come around often and he's not just a thrower.  

Are the reports that Gray has poor command, or has Appel improved on his quite a bit?

[astrosfan76]

Are the reports that Gray has poor command, or has Appel improved on his quite a bit?

Not really on the former and yes on the latter.  Appel has gotten much better at keeping his fastball down and is throwing inside better.  His slider is sharper and his changeup has improved.  Gray's isn't bad, but it isn't always sharp, like the first few innings of his last start.  Here's a report I found from a couple of weeks ago:

Even with a relatively clean delivery, I don’t see the command profile. Lacks athleticism and if the body gets away from him a bit, the command will regress rather than improve. Below-average at present. Has tendency to miss up with FB and to the arm side with CH. Doesn’t show ability to move FB in and out, up and down at will.

http://baseballprospectnation.com/2013/04/23/scouting-report-jonathan-gray-rhp/

[Outlawscotty]

Keith Law said yesterday in his chat that he iss hearing the Astros are leaning towards striking a deal with Gray to save money for the next pick at 40.

Repeated same on Baseball Tonight last evening.  Seems to believe that spreading the money around would result in more players signing.  Quantity>Quality?  Sounds like the same philosophy they used to trade all their players with names you know for prospects and control.  Granted, I don't think Appell alone can turn anything around.

[roadrunner]

I understand the logic behind drafting Gray and spending more in later rounds, but from what I am reading I really hope they lean towards Appel.  He seems to have separated himself in scouting reports.  I know you draft thinking long term, but the fact that he could be in the rotation next year and potentially be a difference maker is pretty attractive given the state of the big league pitching.  

A 2014 rotation of Harrell, Norris, Appel, Cosart, and Wojo is so much more interesting than the vomit-inducing Phillip Humber/Eric Bedard experiments.

[astrosfan76]

Repeated same on Baseball Tonight last evening.  Seems to believe that spreading the money around would result in more players signing.  Quantity>Quality?  Sounds like the same philosophy they used to trade all their players with names you know for prospects and control.  

This is where a degree of gamesmanship can come into play.  We may have a preference, but have a price in mind.  The problem is that the Cubs are supposedly in hard on the same two pitchers.  If they have a preference, they can't cut technically cut a deal before the draft, but they can give indications that they're willing to pay slot, or whatever.  It wouldn't be smart to do that for both, but if they prefer Appel, we may have to pay more than we wanted if we do select him.  Same goes for Gray.  

Granted, I don't think Appell alone can turn anything around.

 

I don't think you have to look at it as just one guy.  I get that the strategy used last year allowed them to get McCullers and Ruiz, in addition to Correa.  If you see guys as equal, it makes a lot of sense to go that route.  But, if there is a gap, you have to remember that it's not just Appel we're counting on to turn it around.  You have Cosart, Folty, Springer, Singleton, McCullers, Correa, DDS, and a slew of other players that you are counting on to turn it around.  You're counting on him to be a big part of that, but it's going to be those other guys stepping up, as well.

[Outlawscotty]

This is where a degree of gamesmanship can come into play.  We may have a preference, but have a price in mind.  The problem is that the Cubs are supposedly in hard on the same two pitchers.  If they have a preference, they can't cut technically cut a deal before the draft, but they can give indications that they're willing to pay slot, or whatever.  It wouldn't be smart to do that for both, but if they prefer Appel, we may have to pay more than we wanted if we do select him.  Same goes for Gray.  
  

I don't think you have to look at it as just one guy.  I get that the strategy used last year allowed them to get McCullers and Ruiz, in addition to Correa.  If you see guys as equal, it makes a lot of sense to go that route.  But, if there is a gap, you have to remember that it's not just Appel we're counting on to turn it around.  You have Cosart, Folty, Springer, Singleton, McCullers, Correa, DDS, and a slew of other players that you are counting on to turn it around.  You're counting on him to be a big part of that, but it's going to be those other guys stepping up, as well.

So I guess it depends on if the Astros will pay up-to slot or over.  Are they now willing to do this?  Following the 'rules' hasn't done them any favors in the past.

[jbm]

A 2014 rotation of Harrell, Norris, Appel, Cosart, and Wojo is so much more interesting than the vomit-inducing Phillip Humber/Eric Bedard experiments.

You've given up on Lyles already?  Just replace him with the next guy with numbers in the minors.

Just like last year with Gausman, Appel and Zimmer, professional evaluator's opinions will differ and unless the Astros feel that Appel has really separated himself, why not go the same route as last year and maximize your return?

I don't put that much stock in the public evaluators, but I'd be surprised if Appel is viewed as head and shoulders above the crowd by the scouting community as a whole.

[pots]

So I guess it depends on if the Astros will pay up-to slot or over.  Are they now willing to do this?  Following the 'rules' hasn't done them any favors in the past.

That's not the way slot works anymore.  if they pay 11 million to their #1 pick they have to pay less than a milllion to players 2-10.  

There is no breaking the rules thing anymore

Article with pool amounts and the penalties associated with going over:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/draft-bonus-pools-rise-8-2-percent/

ETA.  

I think it's safe at this point to that assume if any of the top picks want more than #1 slot money, they aren't getting drafted.  No one has separated themselves from the pack far enough to be able to ask that.

[pots]

Repeated same on Baseball Tonight last evening.  Seems to believe that spreading the money around would result in more players signing.  Quantity>Quality?  Sounds like the same philosophy they used to trade all their players with names you know for prospects and control.  Granted, I don't think Appell alone can turn anything around.

Not one opinion stated about picking Gray has actually come from the Astros organization.  Even Law himself made sure to stipulate that what he has heard was not coming from the Astros but what others in the industry felt the Astros were going to do.  

[pots]

And if in fact they do choose Gray, you can't make the assumption that the Astros believed Appel was the better choice than Gray and chose Gray only to move money to later rounds.  From what I've read Gray has a higher ceiling than Appel but with more risk.  Depending on their evaluation of how much risk that is, he could be considered the better pick.  And if they are considered equal or near equal with all factors combined, then it makes more sense to pick the guy that will give you more flexibility in later rounds.   Also taken into account is that Appel and his agent have the ability to drag out negotiations past the deadline due to Appel being a senior, thus handcuffing them on other signings with not knowing how much money they have to spend.   

[jbm]

And if in fact they do choose Gray, you can't make the assumption that the Astros believed Appel was the better choice than Gray and chose Gray only to move money to later rounds.  From what I've read Gray has a higher ceiling than Appel but with more risk.  Depending on their evaluation of how much risk that is, he could be considered the better pick.  And if they are considered equal or near equal with all factors combined, then it makes more sense to pick the guy that will give you more flexibility in later rounds.   Also taken into account is that Appel and his agent have the ability to drag out negotiations past the deadline due to Appel being a senior, thus handcuffing them on other signings with not knowing how much money they have to spend.   

Good points, and well said.   

[astrosfan76]

Also taken into account is that Appel and his agent have the ability to drag out negotiations past the deadline due to Appel being a senior, thus handcuffing them on other signings with not knowing how much money they have to spend.   

Oh, that one's easy...just draft more Boras clients.

[pots]

Oh, that one's easy...just draft more Boras clients.

Just to note though, I have no knowledge of what Appel or his agent are thinking this time around.  Certainly we saw with McCullers last year that if Boras' client says make it happen, Boras gets it done. 

[juliogotay]

I doubt the Astros are sure yet whom they will take. Last year went down to the wire in choosing Correa, right?

[astrosfan76]

I doubt the Astros are sure yet whom they will take. Last year went down to the wire in choosing Correa, right?

They did. I don't know if that would have happened if there had been a Strasburg/Harper clear-cut 1/1 (would they have taken him over Correa?), so I don't know if it will take that long for them to decide this year.  There's no overwhelming favorite, though, and there's no reason for them to stop looking even if there was.  They have to be prepared for injuries, etc.  It very well could go down to the wire, but they may make up their mind before then.

[OregonStrosFan]

The Crawfish Boxes posted its TCB Draft board today, with general comments on its Top 10. LINK

One of the notes of particular interest was on Appel's season (as follows): Appel [has] gone 8-3 with a 1.56 ERA, 106 strikeouts, and just 15 walks over 86.1 innings [in his senior season]. Appel has faced 318 batters and allowed just 14 extra base hits, including only 1 home run.

I've gone back and forth on Appel for a while now (since this time last year at least).  Generally, my thoughts on him were that while he may go 1-1, I wouldn't have chosen him there if he was going to demand slot.  I've been trending the other way recently, however, and as it stands now would 'be fine' if he were chosen 1-1 and paid 1-1 slot.

While I like the 'thought' of picking Gray (huge upside, 100MPH heater, more money for later rounds in the draft, etc.), in my mind Appel has 'proven' his worth as a 1-1.  For me, this was Appel's season to step up and clearly show that he was worthy of 1-1, or (figuratively) shut the hell up. And by most accounts, he's stepped up to the 'challenge.'  Given what he brings to the table right now, as well as further room for improvement, I'd be hard-pressed (absent ridiculously high monetary demands on his part, or ridiculously low monetary demands from Gray) to pass up on Appel.  To the extent that the Astros believe Gray (or whomever) is a significantly better choice at 1-1 then so be it, but absent that (or ridiculously low demands from Gray) I have no 'issues' with HOU paying pure slot for him at 1-1.  [That said though, I'd certainly 'use' potentially signing Gray or another as leverage in negotiations].

That's my current $0.02 anyway.... (though I reserve the right to disavow this opinion completely any time between now and the draft for whatever reason humors me at the time).

[OregonStrosFan]

In addition to Appel, Gray, Manaea, and Bryant (who were named by McTaggart earlier this week), Jonathan Mayo rounds out the Astros' six candidates for 1/1 with Frazier and Meadows.  Those names shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.  On a related note, Manaea is going to miss his turn this weekend with a hip injury. 

http://minors.mlblogs.com/2013/04/26/astros-looking-at-six-for-top-pick-in-the-draft/

BA now noting that, per Mike Elias, the Astros are looking at 7 players at 1-1.  Though Elias would say 'who', BA surmised the same names as above, plus North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran.  LINK (pretty lengthy article, decent read).

[Outlawscotty]

They did. I don't know if that would have happened if there had been a Strasburg/Harper clear-cut 1/1 (would they have taken him over Correa?), so I don't know if it will take that long for them to decide this year.  There's no overwhelming favorite, though, and there's no reason for them to stop looking even if there was.  They have to be prepared for injuries, etc.  It very well could go down to the wire, but they may make up their mind before then.

Is Appel considered by anybody here as clear cut as Strasburg/Harper?  In your opinion, and without me looking it up, did the Nationals do right by paying what they did?  I guess it was before the bonus pool structure of this year?  In other words, if Appel is Strasburg, then spend the bank?

[OregonStrosFan]

Is Appel considered by anybody here as clear cut as Strasburg/Harper?

No.  ETA: FWIW, K-Law was on ESPN last night and comped Appel to Matt Harvey (NYM).

In your opinion, and without me looking it up, did the Nationals do right by paying what they did?

I don't have specific recollection of what each was paid... but given the extreme talents of each (and my vague recollection of the bonuses), and no penalty for overpaying, absolutely.  

I guess it was before the bonus pool structure of this year?

Yes, no penalty for over-payment in the Strasburg/Harper draft years. Last year was the first of the 'over bonus pool penalties'.  

In other words, if Appel is Strasburg, then spend the bank?

Not as easy an answer under the current slotting/penalty system. Though I'd be fine with 2013 Appel at 1-1, I don't consider it a Strasburg'esque no-brainer. As I noted in an earlier post, I'd be fine with HOU signing Appel at slot (though I'd like to see HOU get some extra dollars for later rounds by signing him at slot).  However, if Appel is demanding significant money over slot (so much so that it hurt HOUs ability to pay close to slot on its 2-5 round picks), HOU could be better served by taking a different player at 1-1.  That said, I'd hope that Appel's '2012 experience' has tempered his expectations a bit, and that he'll be reasonable.

[juliogotay]

McCullers aside, I never expect Boras clients to be reasonable. Will team Appel have a chip on their shoulder from last year? Makes me nervous.

[OregonStrosFan]

McCullers aside, I never expect Boras clients to be reasonable. Will team Appel have a chip on their shoulder from last year? Makes me nervous.

He can have a chip on his shoulder as much as he'd like, but the realities of the current CBA are that it will cost him $1M per pick after 1.1 until 1.4, and would cost him $4.6M total if he fell to 1.8 like he did last season.  BA pick values LINK.  And given the penalties a team would face for going significantly over its bonus pool (see BA link), a later-drafting big-money team would seem hard-pressed to make him a significant over-slot offer.  IMO, bottom line is that it would seem ill-advised for him to come off as having 'signability issues' (as he surely learned from the 2012 draft).

ETA: As for the Boras clients comment, I'd generally agree. However, there have been some exceptions in recent years (see e.g. Carlos Gonzalez extension).

[juliogotay]

He can have a chip on his shoulder as much as he'd like, but the realities of the current CBA are that it will cost him $1M per pick after 1.1 until 1.4, and would cost him $4.6M total if he fell to 1.8 like he did last season.  BA pick values LINK.  And given the penalties a team would face for going significantly over its bonus pool (see BA link), a later-drafting big-money team would seem hard-pressed to make him a significant over-slot offer.  IMO, bottom line is that it would seem ill-advised for him to come off as having 'signability issues' (as he surely learned from the 2012 draft).

Good. Thanks for explaining. I haven't kept up with the changes. I would hate for them to pass on him if he's their guy because of the Boras factor. It also seems Appel would like to be back in Houston. I still remember Boras keeping Hochaver out and he was here in Ft. Worth pitching for the Cats, an independent team. And he's had such a distinguishing MLB career.

[roadrunner]

Comparing all 1-1's to Strasburg or Harper really isn't fair.  Those guys are very rare game-changers.  In my mind Appel is a standard 1-1 prospect.

[pots]

Comparing all 1-1's to Strasburg or Harper really isn't fair.  Those guys are very rare game-changers.  In my mind Appel is a standard 1-1 prospect.

Everyone has different standards I guess.  To me he's not the standard 1-1 just possibly the best of what's available.  1-1 to me should be someone you are salivating over.  Not every year has one, but that is what I'd like to think 1-1 should be

2012 Carlos Correa SS hou
2011 Gerrit Cole P pit
2010 Bryce Harper OF wan
2009 Stephen Strasburg RHP wan
2008 Tim Beckham SS tb
2007 David Price P tb
2006 Luke Hochevar P kc
2005 Justin Upton ss ari
2004 Matt Bush SS sd
2003 Delmon Young OF tb
2002 Bryan Bullington P pit
2001 Joe Mauer C min
2000 Adrian Gonzalez 1B fla
1999 Josh Hamilton OF tb
1998 Pat Burrell 1B phi
1997 Matt Anderson P det
1996 Kris Benson P pit
1995 Darin Erstad OF cal
1994 Paul Wilson P nym
1993 Alex Rodriguez SS sea
1992 Phil Nevin 3B hou
1991 Brien Taylor P nyy
1990 Chipper Jones SS atl
1989 Ben McDonald P bal
1988 Andy Benes P sd
1987 Ken Griffey OF sea
1986 Jeff King SS-3B pit
1985 B.J. Surhoff SS-C mil
1984 Shawn Abner OF nym
1983 Tim Belcher P nyy
1982 Shawon Dunston SS chc
1981 Mike Moore P sea
1980 Darryl Strawberry OF nym
1979 Al Chambers OF sea
1978 Bob Horner 3B atl
1977 Harold Baines 1B-OF chw
1976 Floyd Bannister P hou
1975 Danny Goodwin C cal
1974 Bill Almon SS sd
1973 David Clyde P tex
1972 Dave Roberts 3B sd
1971 Danny Goodwin C cal
1970 Mike Ivie C sd
1969 Jeff Burroughs OF wa2
1968 Tim Foli SS nym
1967 Ron Blomberg 1B nyy
1966 Steve Chilcott C nym
1965 Rick Monday OF kca

[OregonStrosFan]

For his first mock, BA's Callis' "buest guess" is that HOU will take Appel at 1.1.  Jim Callis Mock Draft 1.0

[astrosfan76]

For his first mock, BA's Callis' "buest guess" is that HOU will take Appel at 1.1.  Jim Callis Mock Draft 1.0

It's still very early, but what I like most about these is hearing about guys that I haven't heard a lot about, especially the HS players.  Bickford is one of those guys.  I've read the name a few times, but had no idea he could go as early as Callis is speculating.  Since there isn't as much information as the college guys, it's just harder to know whose stock is rising.

On a side note, I wonder how common the "Appel & Gray and then everyone else" line of thinking is among front offices.  I've read that once or twice recently from other sources.   

[OregonStrosFan]

Via SI: MLB Mock Draft: Gray looks like best bet at No. 1 -- for now

[pots]

Article listing on the Stros homepage about Bryant:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130512&content_id=47315710&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou

Article was written prior to his 5 for 7, 2 HR day yesterday.  Brings him up to 28 dingers.

San Diego outscored Portlandy 47-10 over 3 games.

 

[OregonStrosFan]

Mayo's "Draft Watch" article of 5/13/13: Righty Gonzalez coming on strong

[astrosfan76]

Roundup from last weekend:

Appel had his worst outing of the season against Oregon State (#6 in the country), lasting only 5 innings, giving up 6 runs (5 earned) on 6 hits and 5 walks, while striking out 4.  He still only has 20 walks on the season over 91 innings, so I'm not too worried about that.  But, the last time he gave up that many runs was in the Super-Regional last year, when he gave up 7.  I don't know if it's fair or not, but given how badly the Cardinals needed that win Friday, he may start developing a reputation as a guy you can't count in on the big games. 

Gray wasn't too much better, losing in his matchup against rival OK State.  He only lasted 5 innings, as well, giving up 3 runs while allowing 6 hits and 3 walks against 8 strikeouts.  The Sooners tried playing the odds by throwing him on Saturday, rather than Friday, when Cowboys ace Jason Hursh was on the hill. 

One pitcher who did help his performance was Sean Manaea.  I almost don't want to put him here, because he's been disappointing this season physically (though the numbers overall haven't been bad).  He lasted 7 innings, giving up 2 runs (1 earned) on 3 hits and 1 walk against 11 strikeouts.  On the season, his ERA sits at 1.58 with 88 strikeouts in 68 innings with 25 walks.  Showing that he could hold his velocity was important, and he did, staying in the low 90s.  It's not as impressive as the mid-90s he was running last summer, but it is a start. 

Kris Bryant did what he does best, going 8-17 over the weekend with a double, triple, and 3 homeruns, giving him 28 on the season.  He has games tonight and tomorrow and will make a run at the BBCOR record of 30 set by Victor Roache. 

I don't often have prep notes, but Clint Frazier, whose team is in the state playoffs, added 2 HR and 3 walks in a 2-game series to help his team advance.  On the season, Frazier is hitting .505/.612/1.165 with 16 HR and 44 RBI in 30 games.

On a related note, Callis was asked if there are any 80 tools in this year's draft class.  There was an 80 grade for Matt McPhearson's (Maryland HS OF) speed, though you usually see at least one player with 80 speed per draft.  Also receiving 80 grades were Gray's fastball and Bryant's power.  The physical aspect of those tools were definitely part of the grade, but the ability to use them in games is what sets them apart.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/ask-ba-which-draft-prospects-have-80-tools/

[OregonStrosFan]

Good stuff. Callis was asked via Twitter about Appel's fastball, and he said it graded out as 70.

[pots]

He has games tonight and tomorrow and will make a run at the BBCOR record of 30 set by Victor Roache. 

http://usdtoreros.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2012-2013/usdbb53.html

One down one to go

[OregonStrosFan]

http://usdtoreros.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2012-2013/usdbb53.html

One down one to go

Tied.  BA's Aaron Fitt via Twitter:

Aaron Fitt ‏@aaronfitt
Kris Bryant just blasted his 30th home run of the year at UC Irvine (a graveyard, by the way). Ties Victor Roache's BBCOR record.

Aaron Fitt ‏@aaronfitt
And GSU park [Roache's home field] is hitter-friendly. MT @SoCal_CBDaily: Roache hit 30 HR in 62 games & 230 ABs in 2011. Bryant hit 30 in 54th game, his 198th AB

[OregonStrosFan]

Mayo, Law, and Sickels each published Mock Drafts today:

Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com): Mock Draft: A first look at the first round

1. Jonathan Gray
The Astros are still looking carefully at six or seven players, but the signs point to them taking one of the top two college pitchers. Gray has separated himself this year, along with Mark Appel, whom the Astros didn't take a year ago.

Keith Law (ESPN): First MLB mock draft of 2013

1. Jonathan Gray
The industry thinking is that the Astros will try to cut a deal with Gray for less than it would cost to sign Mark Appel... *** There is one hot rumor this week that has the Astros on UNC third baseman Colin Moran, one of the top statistical performers in this draft and someone likely to rate at or near the top of Houston's internal analytics.

John Sickels (Minor League Ball - SB Nation): 2013 MLB Mock Draft: Version Two

1. Mark Appel
Just about everyone believes that the first two picks in the draft will be college pitchers Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray. Gray seems to have little more momentum at this point, but I'll buck consensus slightly and slot Appel here on the theory that he makes a late charge and/or Gray slumps just a hair.

[astrosfan76]

Keith Law (ESPN): First MLB mock draft of 2013

1. Jonathan Gray
The industry thinking is that the Astros will try to cut a deal with Gray for less than it would cost to sign Mark Appel... *** There is one hot rumor this week that has the Astros on UNC third baseman Colin Moran, one of the top statistical performers in this draft and someone likely to rate at or near the top of Houston's internal analytics.

That doesn't necessarily clash with what McTaggart wrote...

University of North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran is being scouted carefully, but he's more of a dark-horse candidate right now.

but, I would think McTaggart is more accurate.  The Cardinals have multiple guys like Moran on their big-league club (sum is bigger than the parts), but Luhnow didn't take those guys in the first round, either.  I think Moran can be a solid player, but I'd be very surprised if he went 1/1.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130516&content_id=47711686&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou

[jbm]

That doesn't necessarily clash with what McTaggart wrote...

but, I would think McTaggart is more accurate.  The Cardinals have multiple guys like Moran on their big-league club (sum is bigger than the parts), but Luhnow didn't take those guys in the first round, either.  I think Moran can be a solid player, but I'd be very surprised if he went 1/1.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130516&content_id=47711686&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou

I suspect you are correct, but the thought is kind of scary. 

Looking at his stats, is this because he walks a lot?  Really, the Astros would use a 1-1 on someone who fits a statistical profile, much less a profile that emphasizes walks?

[astrosfan76]

I suspect you are correct, but the thought is kind of scary. 

Looking at his stats, is this because he walks a lot?  Really, the Astros would use a 1-1 on someone who fits a statistical profile, much less a profile that emphasizes walks?

He has great hand-eye coordination and great strike zone judgment, which leads to the promise of a good average and OBP.  His defense has improved this season, with the consensus being that he'll be fine at 3B in the majors.  He's shown more power, but I still don't think it will be even average at the major-league level.  He reminds me of a lesser version of Dustin Ackley.  I wouldn't touch him in the top 10.  I get why they would keep an eye on him; if you really start to buy into the power potential, his worth goes up.  But, he really needs to tap into whatever reserve he has.

[Reuben]

So his ceiling is a poor man's Wade Boggs, essentially?

[MusicMan]

That doesn't necessarily clash with what McTaggart wrote...
but, I would think McTaggart is more accurate. 

Unless McTaggart is saying the sky is red or water is dry, I'm betting on him to be more accurate than Law.

[moriartp]

Unless McTaggart is saying the sky is red or water is dry, I'm betting on him to be more accurate than Law.

You might lose that bet more often than not. Law's info on the Astros has been pretty good lately.

[astrosfan76]

Per Berman:

@MarkBermanFox26: B4 going to Pitt. Sat. #Astros owner Jim Crane says he &GM Jeff Luhnow will c a player they r considering 4 the draft. Astros own top pick

@MarkBermanFox26: Astros Jim Crane on visiting potential target for draft:"We've got a kid we're looking at today in Chapel Hill. I like to watch & observe."

I don't read this as Moran becoming a favorite, but I do think there is genuine interest. Luhnow has personally scouted around 7-8 players, so I just read this as Crane tagging along before catching a game at PNC later. With three of the candidates having pitched yesterday, Saturday is a good day to catch a college hitter. Pittsburgh to Chapel Hill isn't that bad of a flight, so there they are.

[astrosfan76]

So his ceiling is a poor man's Wade Boggs, essentially?

Very poor. More power, but the hit tool won't be nearly as good. I didn't see enough of Boggs to compare the two defensively.

[OregonStrosFan]

First of four regional workouts today: LINK

The Astros are holding their first of four regional workouts for prospects on Sunday in Los Angeles, with scouting director Mike Elias, national crosschecker David Post and the decision sciences team led by Sig Mejdal looking at about 20 players. The second workout will be held Wednesday in Kissimmee, Fla., at the team's Spring Training complex, the third will be May 26 in Georgia and the final workout will be June 1 at Minute Maid Park. That will also serve as the start of the Astros' pre-Draft meetings, when the front office will begin going over 1,200 players.

[SM_Bobcat]

Very poor. More power, but the hit tool won't be nearly as good. I didn't see enough of Boggs to compare the two defensively.

I haven't seen Colin Moran play, but just looking at his stats he has hit for a very high average each of the past two years.  What makes you think his hit tool won't be nearly as good as Wade Boggs?

Just looking at his stats, I certainly am not a fan of the idea of taking him at 1-1.  But, I am curious why you don't think he can be a very high average hitter?

[NeilT]

I hadn't noticed how high Kohl Stewart was slotted.  He's the kid from St Pius X, right?  Hasn't he signed a letter of intent at Texas A&M for football?

[jbm]

Yes, and yes.  Don't know how strong his football commitment is. 

[OregonStrosFan]

Yes, and yes.  Don't know how strong his football commitment is. 

IIRC, it was pretty strong (not so strong 1.1 or 1.2 money couldn't break him away from it, but strong nevertheless).

[astrosfan76]

I haven't seen Colin Moran play, but just looking at his stats he has hit for a very high average each of the past two years.  What makes you think his hit tool won't be nearly as good as Wade Boggs?

Just looking at his stats, I certainly am not a fan of the idea of taking him at 1-1.  But, I am curious why you don't think he can be a very high average hitter?

Because Boggs' hit tool got him into the HOF. Moran's BA has been very good, but not exceptional for a college player. Dustin Ackley hit over .400 all three seasons at UNC, but hasn't taken off as a professional, yet. He had elite patience, also. Boggs hit .357, or better in 5 of his first 10 seasons, .325 in 9 of those, with .302 as the outlier. That's just a very rare hitter.

Can Moran be a good hitter? Sure. I wouldn't be surprised if he had several seasons hitting .290 or .300. It's just a big jump from there to a career .328 average.

[hostros7]

Because Boggs' hit tool got him into the HOF. Moran's BA has been very good, but not exceptional for a college player. Dustin Ackley hit over .400 all three seasons at UNC, but hasn't taken off as a professional, yet. He had elite patience, also. Boggs hit .357, or better in 5 of his first 10 seasons, .325 in 9 of those, with .302 as the outlier. That's just a very rare hitter.

Can Moran be a good hitter? Sure. I wouldn't be surprised if he had several seasons hitting .290 or .300. It's just a big jump from there to a career .328 average.

That's all well and good, but how does he stack up in wade's most prolific statistical category, beer crushing?

[moriartp]

IIRC, it was pretty strong (not so strong 1.1 or 1.2 money couldn't break him away from it, but strong nevertheless).

Everyone seems to think he'll be gone in the first five or six picks. I haven't seen much serious speculation that he wouldn't sign in that range, but you can bet he won't be signing for a discount.

[astrosfan76]

That's all well and good, but how does he stack up in wade's most prolific statistical category, beer crushing?

Sources have him as only a 45 on the 20-80 scale.

[hostros7]

Manaea pulled during warm ups with an injury.  If he wasn't already out of the mix at the top of the draft, that may have sealed it.

[Jacksonian]

Manaea pulled during warm ups with an injury.  If he wasn't already out of the mix at the top of the draft, that may have sealed it.

This is one reason they scout 6 to 7 for 1-1.

[astrosfan76]

The club announced that it is inviting season-ticket holders to a Draft Day party after the game (1:10) on the 6th.  They're invited as VIP guests, so maybe they'll open it to non-holders, as well.

[juliogotay]

The club announced that it is inviting season-ticket holders to a Draft Day party after the game (1:10) on the 6th.  They're invited as VIP guests, so maybe they'll open it to non-holders, as well.

The first apparant fan-friendly offering by the new President.

[roadrunner]

Didn't they do this last year?

[astrosfan76]

Didn't they do this last year?

Don't know. I only remember the uniform party.

[SM_Bobcat]

Because Boggs' hit tool got him into the HOF. Moran's BA has been very good, but not exceptional for a college player. Dustin Ackley hit over .400 all three seasons at UNC, but hasn't taken off as a professional, yet. He had elite patience, also. Boggs hit .357, or better in 5 of his first 10 seasons, .325 in 9 of those, with .302 as the outlier. That's just a very rare hitter.

Can Moran be a good hitter? Sure. I wouldn't be surprised if he had several seasons hitting .290 or .300. It's just a big jump from there to a career .328 average.

Just looking at his stats, I wouldn't say for sure that Moran is only a .290 or .300 hitter.

With the new bats that colleges are using now being able to hit .369 is super impressive in my book.

As I said, I haven't actually see him play, and maybe there is something about his swing, that could very well not equate very well to major league baseball.

But looking only at his stats, I certainly wouldn't put his ceiling at a .290 or .300 hitter.  I don't see what in his stats say he can't be a .330ish hitter.

[jbm]

Might the same have been said about Ackley?

I have no idea about this kid, but scouting, or projecting based on stats is so misleading.  But, it appears to have infected so much of the baseball community.

[Duder]

Might the same have been said about Ackley?

I have no idea about this kid, but scouting, or projecting based on stats is so misleading.  But, it appears to have infected so much of the baseball community.

Yeah, some crazy stuff was said about Ackley and Brett Wallace before they were drafted such as 'even if he doesn't develop into a power hitter he will be a threat to win multiple batting titles'. I think it's a little rich to say any amateur player is a sure thing to challenge for batting titles or even hit .300 regularly. It just goes to show you even the most polished college hitters that are guaranteed to hit in the show may very well not.

[Fynn]

Yeah, some crazy stuff was said about Ackley and Brett Wallace before they were drafted such as 'even if he doesn't develop into a power hitter he will be a threat to win multiple batting titles'. I think it's a little rich to say any amateur player is a sure thing to challenge for batting titles or even hit .300 regularly. It just goes to show you even the most polished college hitters that are guaranteed to hit in the show may very well not.

Agreed. 

I found an interesting article which basically refutes the notion that a successful draft often consists more of luck than skill.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/rare-to-have-players-overlooked-in-mlb-draft-more-than-just-luck-060312

[pots]

Agreed. 

I found an interesting article which basically refutes the notion that a successful draft often consists more of luck than skill.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/rare-to-have-players-overlooked-in-mlb-draft-more-than-just-luck-060312

bah, this article takes a reverse look at things.

I took a random draft (2000) using http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/research.asp

40 first rounders:
3 didn't sign
Out of the 37 that did:
 - Only 21 sniffed the majors (7 Position player, 14 pitchers)
 - Of the 14 pitchers only Wainright and Sean Burnett were worth anything
 - of the 7 position players only Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Rocco Baldelli and Kelly Johnson were worth anything.

So out of the first 40 picks, 6 useful players.  15% were worth something, approx 1 out of 7

ETA
Perusing other years, 1998 has been the best so far at almost 1 in 3. but the rest have been as bad or in between.

[juliogotay]

He lost me when he wrote that Santana was signed and developed by the Minnesota Twins.

[astrosfan76]

According to Brian Smith, Manaea is out of the running (implied), with Frazier and Moran as darkhorses if Appel and Gray are too pricey. Bryant is also in the running and appears to be #3, as he isn't considered a darkhorse, though Appel and Gray are the favorites. He also mentions that Gray's side has ties to the Astros and is open to negotiating.

[johnstros]

nothing about Stewart?  HS pitchers are probably the riskiest, but seems to be that he has the highest upside out of all pitchers.  maybe a HS pitcher will never be taken with 1-1...  

[pots]

He lost me when he wrote that Santana was signed and developed by the Minnesota Twins.

I like his round 10 stats.  Even with all the best scouts, stat geeks, etc., nearly 1 out of every 5 starters were missed in the first 320 picks.

 

[astrosfan76]

nothing about Stewart?  HS pitchers are probably the riskiest, but seems to be that he has the highest upside out of all pitchers.  maybe a HS pitcher will never be taken with 1-1...  

Appel or Gray is his upside.

[pots]

nothing about Stewart?  HS pitchers are probably the riskiest, but seems to be that he has the highest upside out of all pitchers.  maybe a HS pitcher will never be taken with 1-1...  

Hoping for Stewart at 41...

[Reuben]

Hoping for Stewart at 41...

What guys are realistic at 41 at this point? I've seen Cavan Biggio ranked around there. It does seem like there's always a couple mid-1st-round guys that fall that much for some reason (Manaea's recent injury sparked such speculation about him), but it could easily be a spot the Astros end up paying slot for this year.

[moriartp]

I think other posters have mentioned him before, but Ryan Boldt is one to look at.

[astrosfan76]

What guys are realistic at 41 at this point? I've seen Cavan Biggio ranked around there. It does seem like there's always a couple mid-1st-round guys that fall that much for some reason (Manaea's recent injury sparked such speculation about him), but it could easily be a spot the Astros end up paying slot for this year.

You know, it can be hard to tell.  If a guy has an injury that creates doubt (like Manaea or Ruiz) that can play a factor and you can also find guys who have an amount in mind who may be worth it, but fall because other players are selected in that price range (like McCullers).  Biggio will probably be available, but it won't be because he fell, just that other players were considered better prospects.  The second round is about where I've seen him fitting in talent-wise, but depending on his commitment level to college, he could be someone who is available later in the draft. 

One guy who could fit the bill is Austin Wilson.  The talent has been there for a long time and Luhnow drafted him out of high school.  Heading into the season, he was looked at as a possible top 10 pick (albeit raw for a college player in that range), but he missed a lot of time this season.  He's come back and quietly put together a 28-game season with a .308/.408/.514 line with 5 HR.  More importantly for his stock, he's only struck out 15 times while walking 13 times (plus 5 HBP). 

[jbm]

I haven't followed Wilson this year, what kept him out? 

I'd love to see him fall that far, but I can't imagine it happening.  Someone in the first round will likely take a chance on him. 

[astrosfan76]

I haven't followed Wilson this year, what kept him out? 

I'd love to see him fall that far, but I can't imagine it happening.  Someone in the first round will likely take a chance on him. 

Stress reaction in his elbow.  He missed several weeks from it.  He very well may be picked before we get a chance, though.  I haven't seen too much about him recently, which had me thinking about the possibility, but that doesn't mean teams aren't paying attention to him.  It's a situation where having extra money could help us, though (if we have much extra).  Wilson turned down a lot of money out of high school, so I don't know what kind of money he's looking for this year.  If he is wanting, say, $3M (I think the amount he turned down out of HS), and he slides out of the top 15, there won't be a lot of teams who can make that happen.  The Yankees have two extra picks in the first round, so they could probably work something out, but other teams would have to get really creative. 

I'm not holding my breath, but I can picture a scenario where it does happen.  Of course, this also assumes the club sees him as the best available at that pick.

[Reuben]

How fucked up is it that the Yankees have two extra 1st-round picks? This new qualifying offer system seems backwards.

[pots]

https://twitter.com/ChronAstros/status/337299824418373632

Worth watching: Gray's side has ties to #Astros, open to negotiating. Could allow Astros to get 1.1 RHP, not overpay/be tied down.

What ties to the Astros?

[astrosfan76]

How fucked up is it that the Yankees have two extra 1st-round picks? This new qualifying offer system seems backwards.

I'm more perplexed that the Cardinals are considered a small-market club and are eligible for extra picks.

[astrosfan76]

https://twitter.com/ChronAstros/status/337299824418373632

What ties to the Astros?

I don't know, just passing on what Smith was saying.  I don't know if that is referring to his advisor (don't know who it is) or family, or what. 

[moriartp]

From Keith Law's chat today:

How far does Manaea fall with the latest injury? Does he just demand a high figure and then go back to college to prove himself top 5 worthy?
--That's exactly what I think happens. Or he gets picked high in the second round by a team that saved some money on its first pick (cough Houston cough).


At this point, Moran looks like the discount option. If they can snag Manaea at 40, passing on Appel/Gray is more understandable. BA ranks Moran and Manaea 7th and 10th in the class.

[jbm]

I hope they don't.  Betting on injuried arms to return to form seems like a risky stategy.  Purke comes to mind, and of course, Armstrong.  Any word on Armstrong by the way?  Is he ever going to pitch again?

[roadrunner]

I hope they don't.  Betting on injuried arms to return to form seems like a risky stategy.  Purke comes to mind, and of course, Armstrong.  Any word on Armstrong by the way?  Is he ever going to pitch again?

What about Gausman?

[roadrunner]

What about Gausman?

or am I confusing Gausman with Giolito?

[jbm]

I don't think Gausman was an injured arm.  

Maybe you are thinking of Ranaudo, who would be an example of someone who has come back and is pitching well.

Speaking of Gausman, it is funny how things change.  Most everything I read or hear says that if last year's draft was right now, he would clearly be picked before Appel and Zimmer.  That opinion was an outlier last year.  Just funny how the consensus shifts.  

[Reuben]

Just read Callis' chat from yesterday. Asked to rate the chances of the Astros taking different players at 1/1, he said Gray 37%, Appel 35%, Bryant 28%, anyone else 0%.

[roadrunner]

I don't think Gausman was an injured arm.  

Maybe you are thinking of Ranaudo, who would be an example of someone who has come back and is pitching well.

Speaking of Gausman, it is funny how things change.  Most everything I read or hear says that if last year's draft was right now, he would clearly be picked before Appel and Zimmer.  That opinion was an outlier last year.  Just funny how the consensus shifts.  

Nah I was thinking of Giolito.

[astrosfan76]

Gray only helped his case today, throwing a 3-hitter against Baylor, striking out 12 in front of multiple Astros scouts.

[OregonStrosFan]

Gray only helped his case today, throwing a 3-hitter against Baylor, striking out 12 in front of multiple Astros scouts.

From the Baylor game write-up: LINK

“[Gray] got in a good flow and just pitched,” said BU Head Coach Steve Smith. “He can just pitch. He reminds me of (Roger) Clemens because of his three-pitch command and his command of the game. He is really good. It’ll be interesting to see which one of those two guys goes first between him or the guy from Stanford (Mark Appel).”

[juliogotay]

From the Baylor game write-up: LINK

“[Gray] got in a good flow and just pitched,” said BU Head Coach Steve Smith. “He can just pitch. He reminds me of (Roger) Clemens because of his three-pitch command and his command of the game. He is really good. It’ll be interesting to see which one of those two guys goes first between him or the guy from Stanford (Mark Appel).”

Interesting. I thought command was not one of his strong points.

[pots]

Interesting. I thought command was not one of his strong points.

I think I've read his command is inconsistent.  Here one day, gone the next.  Not just a lack of command.  But I could be wrong

[Reuben]

BA has the Astros taking Gray in their new mock, but mentions the other usual suspects. They note that money could be a factor between Gray and Appel with them being so close, but that neither will come nearly as cheap as Correa. No surprise there.

[jbm]

BA has the Astros taking Gray in their new mock, but mentions the other usual suspects. They note that money could be a factor between Gray and Appel with them being so close, but that neither will come nearly as cheap as Correa. No surprise there.

I wonder if the Astros actually consider them that close.  I'd be surprised if individuals who have scouted them don't have strong opinions about one or the other.  But, I guess when they all get in a room, maybe those opinions balance out.  Also, it might be that they don't think either are all that.

It will be an interesting selection.

[Mr. Happy]

I'm just ready to end the suspense and to know who we're taking.

[OregonStrosFan]

I'm just ready to end the suspense and to know who we're taking.

I'm 100% positive it will be either a college or high school pitcher or position player. And you can take that to the bank!!!

[NeilT]

I'm just ready to end the suspense and to know who we're taking.

Cause then we can start talking about the 2014 draft.

[Mr. Happy]

Cause then we can start talking about the 2014 draft.

Where we're better than even money to get a top three pick again.

[Mr. Happy]

I'm 100% positive it will be either a college or high school pitcher or position player. And you can take that to the bank!!!

T'is banked!

[Navin R Johnson]

What is the "record" for most consecutive #1 picks?

[OregonStrosFan]

What is the "record" for most consecutive #1 picks?

2 (Astros, Nats, and Devil Rays). Mets and Mariners (twice) have had 1.1 twice in a 3 year span.

[Navin R Johnson]

So the Astros got a chance to set an all time record for futility this year, sweet!

[astrosfan76]

BA has the Astros taking Gray in their new mock, but mentions the other usual suspects. They note that money could be a factor between Gray and Appel with them being so close, but that neither will come nearly as cheap as Correa. No surprise there.

Keith Law had this:

I asked you on Twitter if Appel > Gray because of a longer track record and you said that is not all of it. Can you expand on that?
Klaw
  (1:21 PM)


Gray's small velocity advantage doesn't outweigh Appel's much better third pitch and superior command. Then you have the track record and Gray not looking quite as sharp as Appel down the stretch, and I think Appel is the better choice.

Appel's slider is one of the best secondary pitches in the draft, according to BA.  I don't know if Law is referring to Appel's slider or changeup as his third pitch, Gray's curve is pretty good, though.  If he's saying that Appel's slider is much better than Gray's curve, that's saying a lot.  BTW, this was written before Gray's performance yesterday, where I'm sure he looked very sharp. 

I like Gray a lot and wouldn't be disappointed if we went with him (especially if he comes in ~$1M cheaper), but I do think Appel is a better pitcher.  Gray has been a late bloomer and maybe a year from now he's as good or better than Appel, though. 

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/48054/mlb-insider-keith-law

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/best-tools-2013-draft/ 

[Jacksonian]

Keith Law had this:

Appel's slider is one of the best secondary pitches in the draft, according to BA.  I don't know if Law is referring to Appel's slider or changeup as his third pitch, Gray's curve is pretty good, though.  If he's saying that Appel's slider is much better than Gray's curve, that's saying a lot.  BTW, this was written before Gray's performance yesterday, where I'm sure he looked very sharp. 

I like Gray a lot and wouldn't be disappointed if we went with him (especially if he comes in ~$1M cheaper), but I do think Appel is a better pitcher.  Gray has been a late bloomer and maybe a year from now he's as good or better than Appel, though. 

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/48054/mlb-insider-keith-law

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/best-tools-2013-draft/ 

I hate these comparisons.  Appel has a full year on Gray.  I'd love to hear one of the know-it-all's compare Appel of last year to Gray this year.

[astrosfan76]

I hate these comparisons.  Appel has a full year on Gray.  I'd love to hear one of the know-it-all's compare Appel of last year to Gray this year.

That would be a good comparison and where having good scouts really comes into play.  Appel did a great job refining his game this season, how confident are teams that Gray can do the same?  What do they see the end-result being as Gray grows?  How long do they see that process taking?  How will he stack up to Appel in the long run?  These are big questions.

[jbm]

I don't get what Law is saying about "superior command."  That is about the last adjective I'd use to describe Appel.  I have only seen clips from one game this year, and it looks just like last year (and the year before that) where he frequently misses his spots.  His delivery looks just as loose as last year too.

I've only seen Gray once this year, and haven't seen him previously to see if progress is being made.  While the observation of weaker secondaries (at this point in time) holds true, I don't get the command observation.  Gray does live up in the zone, but his frequency of hitting his target is much greater than Appel. 

Besides, it's not about what they are today, but what they will be in the future. 

[Duder]

I hate these comparisons.  Appel has a full year on Gray.  I'd love to hear one of the know-it-all's compare Appel of last year to Gray this year.

Appel does have one year on Gray in terms of college seasoning but not in age. Appel is less than four months older than Gray. Their ages on draft day: Appel - 22.03 and Gray - 21.72.

[Jacksonian]

Appel does have one year on Gray in terms of college seasoning but not in age. Appel is less than four months older than Gray. Their ages on draft day: Appel - 22.03 and Gray - 21.72.

It's the difference between being young for your grade and old for your grade.  It's also the difference in a year's worth of baseball.

[astrosfan76]

Appel with possibly his last start in a college game last night: 8 innings, 3 hits, 1 run, and 2 walks against 9 Ks against Adam Plutko and #8 UCLA.

[Reuben]

Appel with possibly his last start in a college game last night: 8 innings, 3 hits, 1 run, and 2 walks against 9 Ks against Adam Plutko and #8 UCLA.

Stanford's not going to the CWS or anything? With two likely first-rounders?

[astrosfan76]

Stanford's not going to the CWS or anything? With two likely first-rounders?

Plus, BA's#79 draft prospect, RHP A.J Vanegas, and #140 draft prospect, 1B Brian Ragira. Part of the problem is that Wilson only started 1/2 of the team's games and Vanegas only made 8 appearances. Overall, Stanford only went 31-21 overall and 15-13 in Pac-12 play, so their chances aren't good.

[astrosfan76]

Club holding draft tryout in Atlanta tomorrow, hosting Frazier and Meadows, no surprise there. Frazier has edge internally, according to Brian Smith.

[BUWebguy]

2 (Astros, Nats, and Devil Rays). Mets and Mariners (twice) have had 1.1 twice in a 3 year span.

To be fair, for many years the AL and NL alternated who got the first pick, so a team couldn't have it in consecutive years.

[austro]

To be fair, for many years the AL and NL alternated who got the first pick, so a team couldn't have it in consecutive years.

Unless, of course, a team were forced to change leagues.

[pots]

2 (Astros, Nats, and Devil Rays). Mets and Mariners (twice) have had 1.1 twice in a 3 year span.

It's looking less likely everyday.  Miami is horrendous

[Reuben]

It's looking less likely everyday.  Miami is horrendous

Don't underestimate this Astros team's capacity for horrendousness. Just one 0-26 month could completely seal it for them.

[Reuben]

I don't have ESPN Insider, but Law's new mock has the Astros taking Moran 1/1. This MLBTR link explains the thinking.

[astrosfan76]

I don't have ESPN Insider, but Law's new mock has the Astros taking Moran 1/1. This MLBTR link explains the thinking.

Bleh.  I'm hoping this is misdirection.

[hostros7]

Law had Appel #1 last year, stating that the Astros could also go with buxton, or even correa as a third option.

There seems to be no obvious #1 again this year so perhaps the Astros are just floating out a lot of info to further muddle the situation and get gray, Bryant, Moran, etc to sign under slot.  Wouldn't expect that game to be played as well with boras as your adversary

[Reuben]

Is Boras advising all those guys save for Gray?

[juliogotay]

Is Boras advising all those guys save for Gray?

Somewhere, I am sure I read that Gray's agent is a former Boras associate.

[pots]

Bleh.  I'm hoping this is misdirection.

Seems like a good strategy.  If the Cubs are known to be hooked on Appel and the Rockies wth Bryant then by making Moran look like a legit possibility, Gray might be happy with low 5 million bonus (given the 4th pick only is for 4.5 million).  That gives the Astros an extra 2.5 million to land a top 15 guy that fell due to money issues.  A possible 4 million available for the second pick.  4 million is between the 4th and 5th overall pick money.  

[jbm]

As mentioned previously, this stategy made sense when your pick will come cheaper AND has tremendous upside.  Just being cheaper for a low-upside player seems foolish.  If they are going low-upside, take it to the extreme and pick a real scrub for 10K and use the rest all the way through the draft.

[astrosfan76]

"Senior officials" met with Gray today at the Big 12 Tournament. Gray pitches tomorrow, so I'm sure some of the brass will be staying around for his start.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/2013053049101318/

[astrosfan76]

Seems like a good strategy.  If the Cubs are known to be hooked on Appel and the Rockies wth Bryant then by making Moran look like a legit possibility, Gray might be happy with low 5 million bonus (given the 4th pick only is for 4.5 million).  That gives the Astros an extra 2.5 million to land a top 15 guy that fell due to money issues.  A possible 4 million available for the second pick.  4 million is between the 4th and 5th overall pick money.  

Callis was on 790 a few minutes ago and discussed the money situation at the top. His guess was that they go with Gray for $6-$6.5M. His premise was basically that the club doesn't need to save $2.5-$3.0M for later picks, because the talent available later won't warrant it. They'll have extra money regardless of who they pick (he sees Appel & Bryant as the only other legitimate candidates) and thinks it will be enough. We'll see if he's right.

[MusicMan]

I don't have ESPN Insider, but Law's new mock has the Astros taking Moran 1/1. This MLBTR link explains the thinking.

Further discussion here.

[Jacksonian]

Further discussion here.

I'm not convinced they're going to do that this year. 

They showed the way last year so you can expect one or two teams near the top of the draft to try it as well.
They identified enough kids last year as signability issues to expect to have a shot at a couple in later rounds.  They have to identify enough top talent kids who they expect to fall this year.  Not a guarantee.
Too those signability kids this year have to be worth the money the Astros would expect to spend.

Gray is special. Appel has dropped below him for a reason.  There wasn't an arm like him last year, not even Appel, Gausman or Zimmer.

[astrosfan76]

Further discussion here.

I disagree with the premise, particularly this part:

By selecting someone like Moran with the first pick, they can offer him more money than he would make with say, the Indians, who select fifth and have $3,787,400 to spend on their first pick, but much, much less than they would have if they selected Gray, who is likely going to sign at least at the slot recommendation as he's a junior who can leverage his senior year of college into negotiations, like Mark Appel did with the Pirates last year.

This operates under multiple assumptions, namely that Gray has anywhere near that kind of leverage to get slot, or more.  The Cubs are believed to like both Appel & Gray, a lot, but there's a difference between really liking a player and being willing to bust slot for a guy.  Gray has received comparisons to Gerrit Cole, but he's not as good.  His changeup isn't as good and his command isn't as good.  Cole received an $8M bonus.  Why would Gray get that much, again?  

This also assumes that Appel was demanding more than slot.  We don't know what his price was, we just know that it was more than $3.8M, almost half of what slot for 1/1 was.  Yes, Appel did use his senior year as leverage, but I doubt it would have mattered nearly as much had he been in line for a 1/1 payday.  

[MusicMan]

I'm not convinced they're going to do that this year. 

They showed the way last year so you can expect one or two teams near the top of the draft to try it as well.
They identified enough kids last year as signability issues to expect to have a shot at a couple in later rounds.  They have to identify enough top talent kids who they expect to fall this year.  Not a guarantee.
Too those signability kids this year have to be worth the money the Astros would expect to spend.

Gray is special. Appel has dropped below him for a reason.  There wasn't an arm like him last year, not even Appel, Gausman or Zimmer.

I think they're intentionally putting this rumor out there as leverage against Gray.

[NeilT]

I think they're intentionally putting this rumor out there as leverage against Gray.

But that would be wrong!

[VirtualBob]

But that would be wrong!

Define "wrong".

It's not personal.  It's business.

[Bench]

Define "wrong".

It's not personal.  It's business.

This ain't Sunday School!

[Jacksonian]

I think they're intentionally putting this rumor out there as leverage against Gray.

Well, we'll know their strategy for later in the draft when the pick 1-1.

[astrosfan76]

Gray with a CG victory today over Coastal Carolina. It wasn't his prettiest outing, but he was still effective, despite some shoddy defense. On e game, he gave up 3 runs (2 earned), allowing 9 hits, 1 walk, and striking out 11. He struck out 5 over the last 3 innings and hit 102 on his final (129th) pitch of the game.

[hostros7]

Gray with a CG victory today over Coastal Carolina. It wasn't his prettiest outing, but he was still effective, despite some shoddy defense. On e game, he gave up 3 runs (2 earned), allowing 9 hits, 1 walk, and striking out 11. He struck out 5 over the last 3 innings and hit 102 on his final (129th) pitch of the game.

I caught bits and pieces online.  Espn's radar had the last pitch of the game at 98, and it was eye level cheese.  His secondary pitches didn't overwhelm me, but he hasn't been forced to rely on them due to his competition.  This is where you really need your scouts to offer their view on his feel for his offspeed stuff and confidence that be can develop and refine them.  If yes, he's a better option than Appel, imo

[astrosfan76]

I caught bits and pieces online.  Espn's radar had the last pitch of the game at 98, and it was eye level cheese.  His secondary pitches didn't overwhelm me, but he hasn't been forced to rely on them due to his competition.  This is where you really need your scouts to offer their view on his feel for his offspeed stuff and confidence that be can develop and refine them.  If yes, he's a better option than Appel, imo

Okay, I was going by what his coach said in the write-up.

[hostros7]

Not disputing just wanted to point it out in the event the stadium gun was hot

[Navin R Johnson]

FWIW, Kevin Goldstein was at the Chapel Hill regional, I assume to watch Moran.  Moran went 1-5 with K vs Canisus' Junior Garrett Cortright, who does have nice numbers (2.41 ERA 1.00 WHIP), but isn't listed in BA's top 500 prospects

[astrosfan76]

Not disputing just wanted to point it out in the event the stadium gun was hot

No problem. Impressive, either way.

[astrosfan76]

Boras on the draft:

"I don't think that anybody in the draft that I know is seeking what I would call dollars that are not within the realm of what everyone anticipated the draft to be," said Boras... "The expectancies of certainly everyone involved are within the traditional dynamics of what's expected in the process."

So, yeah.

The author also has Boras saying that he won't overvalue Appel, hold up negotiations, or prevent Appel from making it quickly to the majors. On the surface, this sounds promising and addresses questions that Boras would use Appel's later deadline to squeeze out every last penny. There's always the issue of semantics with him, though. But, at least he's not floating out lofty comparisons like he does with his top free agents, at least not in public.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Boras-thinks-Astros-will-spend-for-talent-4569263.php?t=e577c27e8cd8ff4dd2

[Ron Brand]

Boras on the draft:

Bla bla bla bla lie lie lie misrepresent misdirect lie skew lie bla bla bla i'm not don king bla bla bla lie lie lie obfuscate misrepresent lie lie lie.

[chuck]

Bla bla bla bla lie lie lie misrepresent misdirect lie skew lie bla bla bla i'm not don king bla bla bla lie lie lie obfuscate misrepresent lie lie lie.

Any other expectancy would lie outside the dynamic of what's expected.

[Bench]

Gray tested positive for heinous drug use.

What is with these college kids are their precious adderall?

[OregonStrosFan]

BA Editors Draft: LINK

BA Note: This isn’t our projection of how the first round will play out, but rather who editor John Manuel, executive editor Jim Callis and assistant editors Conor Glassey and Nathan Rode would take with picks 1-33.

1. ASTROS (Nathan [Rode]). [Pick - GRAY]: ...I like the size and stuff, with the fastball life being the ever-so-slight separator between him and Stanford righty Mark Appel. It would be fun to see San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant’s power in Minute Maid Park, but you can never have enough pitching...

2. CUBS (Jim). [Pick - APPEL]: I’m mildly tempted by Bryant, but the choice comes down to Gray and Appel, and the Astros have made it easy here by taking Gray off the board. I like Gray a little more because I think his stuff is more electric when he and Appel are at their best, but I’m happy with Appel at No. 2. He has more polish, a deeper repertoire and a longer track record, and he has dominated this season like scouts always hoped he would...

[Reuben]

Gray tested positive for heinous drug use.

What is with these college kids are their precious adderall?

Cramming for finals?

[Bench]

Cramming for finals?

Either that or trying to go the distance in a beer pong tournament.  It's a useful and versatile pill.

[OregonStrosFan]

Kohl Stewart on deciding between pro baseball and football/baseball at Texas A&M. LINK

[Nate Colbert]

Gray tested positive for heinous drug use.

What is with these college kids are their precious adderall?

At one time it seems that adderall was considered a masking agent. That view is apparently no longer held but now folks seem to believe the adderall itself is a performance enhancer because it increases stamina. Given that, why wouldn't that be viewed negatively by the Astros. I'm trying to understand why the "source" would say they didn't think his draft stock would be affected. How could it not be, particularly if as the article says Gray didn't have an RX for it? Just trying to make sense of this...

[Reuben]

via MLBTR:

In fact, in a second piece (this one for ESPN Insiders only), Law outlines a scenario in which this test could actually make Gray more appealing to the Astros with the first overall pick. Law writes that Gray's bonus demands will be lower due to the poor result. One source told Law he expects Gray to sign for a "huge" discount. In that scenario, the Astros could likely sign Gray below slot with the first pick and allocate some of the additional funds to later players without risk of exceeding their bonus pool.

[Nate Colbert]

via MLBTR:

In fact, in a second piece (this one for ESPN Insiders only), Law outlines a scenario in which this test could actually make Gray more appealing to the Astros with the first overall pick. Law writes that Gray's bonus demands will be lower due to the poor result. One source told Law he expects Gray to sign for a "huge" discount. In that scenario, the Astros could likely sign Gray below slot with the first pick and allocate some of the additional funds to later players without risk of exceeding their bonus pool.

Okay, well explained that way it does make a tad more sense. Personally I'd still be leery of taking a Pedder this high in the draft even at a discount but I'm also glad I'm not the one having to make that decision.

 

[Bench]

Okay, well explained that way it does make a tad more sense. Personally I'd still be leery of taking a Pedder this high in the draft even at a discount but I'm also glad I'm not the one having to make that decision.

 

Everyone should be allowed to experiment in college!

[Mr. Happy]

Everyone should be allowed to experiment in college!

I agree. The problem is what do you do when the experiment doesn't work out. On balance, I prefer the abstinence policy. My oldest son, being fully (and painfully) aware of my past problems, simply won't drink or do drugs because of a fear that he could have inherited my problem from me. I applaud his foresight.

[astrosfan76]

Chronicle has a nice article up covering the background of the draft, including who does what and how, with Elias providing a lot of insight.  Really makes you appreciate the hours those guys put in.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/article/Behind-the-scenes-scouting-sets-stage-for-4573565.php?t=51a6ca8110d8ff4dd2

[jbm]

When I read articles like this, I worry that they might be overthinking things.  Plate discipline as the primary reason to draft someone at 1-1?  It's gravy, not the meat.

[astrosfan76]

When I read articles like this, I worry that they might be overthinking things.  Plate discipline as the primary reason to draft someone at 1-1?  It's gravy, not the meat.

To be fair, the author said that, not Elias.  But, if they are as enamored with Moran as they're perceived to be, that is a big part of his game.  It's hard to get a read how they'll run the draft; Luhnow and Post are still there, as well as Mejdal and some of that crew, but Elias is running the show now and there have been other major changes in the scouting department.  Would Elias & this crew have selected Correa last year?  I know Luhnow had veto power (and still does), but I don't know how accurately we can project what type of player they are after, what types they value. 

I agree with you about Moran, though.  They talk about a "face of the franchise" player or an "impact" player and that's just not Moran.  He could be a solid player, but there's nothing about him that screams <insert label>.

[OregonStrosFan]

When I read articles like this, I worry that they might be overthinking things.  Plate discipline as the primary reason to draft someone at 1-1?  It's gravy, not the meat.

IMO, plate discipline as a primary factor is fine at 2.1 (see e.g. Fontana), but not at 1.1... In 2012 there were half a dozen or so people who could've laid claim to 'best overall' or 1.1.  In 2013, however, I see 3 - Gray, Appel, Bryant, and if 1.1 isn't one of those 3 I think it is a mistake.  Again, IMO.

[OregonStrosFan]

Interesting read: My Top 10 Curiosities For the 2013 MLB Draft (J.P. Schwartz)

[astrosfan76]

Interesting read: My Top 10 Curiosities For the 2013 MLB Draft (J.P. Schwartz)

Re: Moran

Considered to have the best hitting ability and bat speed in this year’s class

He lost me at best bat speed. 

[geezerdonk]

He lost me at best bat speed.

 

He's the fastest under the Congress Avenue Bridge.

[astrosfan76]

 

He's the fastest under the Congress Avenue Bridge.

Must be. I don't get how he can type that with a straight face, otherwise.

[astrosfan76]

Callis last night:

@jimcallisBA: Beginning to sense #Astros leaning to Appel if $ fit like they want. #mlbdraft

[moriartp]

Interesting. More Callis:

No. Thinking #Astros prefer Appel's superior track record. @TheCubsGuy: so Gray's stock not hurt by the failed test? #mlbdraft

[BudGirl]

I think these guys have no clue what the Astros are going to do and I like that.

[pots]

I think these guys have no clue what the Astros are going to do and I like that.

I don't think the Astros know who they are going to get yet.  From what Mayo said in a pod cast, that I won't mention I listened to, the Astros did last day bonus conversations last year.  In his opinion, it limits a players ability to take the offer to a different team and drive up the price.  So it's likely that the 5 players the Stros are looking at 1-1 are all still a possibility.

[jbm]

I realize that they said they didn't have their choice until the end last year, and Luhnow is saying the same this year, but it is hard for me to imagine that it is actually true.  It does create a solid negotiating position though. 

[pots]

I realize that they said they didn't have their choice until the end last year, and Luhnow is saying the same this year, but it is hard for me to imagine that it is actually true.  It does create a solid negotiating position though.  

I'm sure they have favorites.  And even though everyone keeps saying there is no guys that will fall due to signability, I think that just can't be known yet.  

For example:
Lets say Stewart decides tomorrow that 5 million is what it will take to give up his dreams of playing football and the Astros take Moran. It's likely that Gray, Appel and Bryant are the next 3 off the board.  And now no one can swing Stweart his 5 million.  But if Moran agrees to 4.8 million then the Stros would have that 5 million at 41.

And if the Stros pull off a Moran/Stewart combo, they win big time

[jbm]

I hear what you are saying, and one can say that is what they did last year, but I can't imagine that the picks in the lower rounds were driving the strategy.  It is a subtle distinction, but I suspect that last year, they thought Correa was the best, then they also realized they could sign him cheap and get some unknown others.  I don't think they actually thought Buxton, Appel or Gausman was the best and chose Correa because they could also get others.  In other words, I think/hope they are always picking who they think will be the best, and what follows, follows.

I realize your example was just an example, but it carries a lot of risk.  What if Stewart was unavailable?  I mean, if he was really their target, just grab him with the 1-1?

[astrosfan76]

I'm sure they have favorites.  And even though everyone keeps saying there is no guys that will fall due to signability, I think that just can't be known yet.  

For example:
Lets say Stewart decides tomorrow that 5 million is what it will take to give up his dreams of playing football and the Astros take Moran. It's likely that Gray, Appel and Bryant are the next 3 off the board.  And now no one can swing Stweart his 5 million.  But if Moran agrees to 4.8 million then the Stros would have that 5 million at 41.

And if the Stros pull off a Moran/Stewart combo, they win big time

I think teams have a decent idea of what it will take to sign certain players at this point, or are at least getting an idea.  I know Stewart is a hypothetical, but I'd be really hesitant to take the gamble of any of the top handful of guys dropping all the way to 40.  There are too many teams with extra picks who could make it happen before us, I'd be shocked if he made it past Pittsburgh at #9 or #14 (Minnesota still might take him over the top 3 in your scenario).  Bickford is someone Mayo mentioned as floating a high price tag who could fall and Manaea is the guy who gets mentioned most due to his combination of injury uncertainty, performance at the Cape, and agent's insistence that he shouldn't come at a deep discount.  

I think they're better off going for their top guy at 1/1, who shouldn't come close to slot, then shuffling around money from later rounds to grab any guys who might surprise them at 40.

[pots]

I realize your example was just an example, but it carries a lot of risk.  What if Stewart was unavailable?  I mean, if he was really their target, just grab him with the 1-1?

Likely just to much risk in taking Stewart 1-1.   He has the potential to be better then Appel or Gray, but also can blow out his arm in his 3-5 year climb to the majors.  Moran is a pretty safe choice with a pretty high floor.

Last year the Stros had 2 guys that they didn't sign because they didn't have enough money(Virant and Hinojosa).  There is just no way there won't be some guys available.  Maybe not as high of a prospect as a Stewart, McCullers, etc.  but there'll be plenty of 2nd to 5th round HS talent who choose a 4 year scholarship (worth a couple hundred thousand in itself) and the hope to improve their draft position out of college.

Now that is not to say that if you truely think say Appel is better than the other 4 that you sign Moran for less.  It only means that if you feel the all 5 (or 4 or 3 or 2)  have equal talent and value, then you take the one that gives you more flexibility.

[Reuben]

Looks like Kris Bryant didn't do his draft stock any favors this past weekend (sorry if Cabrera'd):

Bryant went two for 13 in four games. Both were infield singles.

link

[jbm]

I assume this quote made sense in the proper context, but it didn't in the context of the article:

“Sometimes they throw it 100 miles per hour,” Bryant said. “We’ll see what happens in my future. I’m just kind of lost for words right now.”

[MusicMan]

We're gonna work on your cliches.

[MusicMan]

One day out, call your shot: Who will be the pick?

I'm sticking with Gray.

[jbm]

My bet would be on Gray also, but it is not a bet I would expect to cash. 

[Jacksonian]

This time I think they go safe.  Appel.

[Reuben]

K. Bryant
That guy may end up being one of the 5 best to ever play his sport.

[Ebby Calvin]

K. Bryant

I'm on this bandwagon.

[BUWebguy]

Appel.

[astrosfan76]

Like all three, but I'm going with Appel right now.

[Bench]

This time I think they go safe.  Appel.

Count me in on the Appel cart.

[NeilT]

Count me in on the Appel cart.

Oh shit.  Either way just think of the horrible headlines:  "He's the Appel of their eye!" "Astros upset the Appel cart!"  Good grief.

[pots]

One day out, call your shot: Who will be the pick?

I'm sticking with Gray.

One thing I like about Bryant is that he didn't have a whole lot of help around him, where Moran's team was stacked.  I would pick Bryant, but I think they go pitcher and take Gray (ETA: at a discount, ~5.5)

ETA2:  And while I'm wildly speculating, Manaea in the 2nd and Cavan Biggio in the 3rd

[Duman]

Appel

[BudGirl]

There should be some kind of pool for this.

I think they go with a pitcher and that's all I'll guess.

[pots]

MLBTR has an anti-Appel posting:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/06/draft-notes-appel-astros-bryant-ramirez-jr.html#disqus_thread

[Tralfaz]

I would not be disapinted with Frazier or Meadows. Boys can too.

[roadrunner]

I want Appel.

I think they go Appel.

[OregonStrosFan]

Gray.

[MusicMan]

K. Bryant
That guy may end up being one of the 5 best to ever play his sport.

I see what you did there.

[austro]

I see what you did there.

I missed it completely until you pointed it out.

[BizidyDizidy]

Gray

[juliogotay]

Last year, I was pulling for Correa to be the pick. I didn't think he would be, but he was my wish because of his position. This year, I can't decide. I'm starting to pull for Bryant but I'm conflicted because I think Dominguez is going to be a pretty good player and they invested a good bit in Ruiz. Pitching...you can't have enough of. There you go. Surprise me.

[austro]

Last year, I was pulling for Correa to be the pick. I didn't think he would be, but he was my wish because of his position. This year, I can't decide. I'm starting to pull for Bryant but I'm conflicted because I think Dominguez is going to be a pretty good player and they invested a good bit in Ruiz. Pitching...you can't have enough of. There you go. Surprise me.

I feel much the same way, except that I'm not sold on Appel. I just have the feeling that he's reached his ceiling, and while it's ok, it's only ok. Of course, I'm probably completely wrong.

[Uncle Charlie]

Bryant.  1-1 is a place to take power if its proven.  He has a plus arm and can patrol RF for years, and quickly.  There is too much risk with pitchers at that pick IMHO.

[JackAstro]

Gray.

[tbone421998]

Bryant.

[Señor Stan]

Bryant

[pots]

Whitey tweets an interesting rumor.  
https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/342443520038162432

Draft is so unpredictable that it appears the 'Stros and Cubs @1-2 are in quandaries, and teams think the Rockies @3 go 1B Dominic Smith

Well that would upset the appel cart quite nicely.

If the Rockies go Smith at 3, then if your name isn't Appel (who I assume wouldn't make it past the Cubs at 2) you are either going to the Astros at a discount or risk losing a lot of $ as the 4th pick is just 4.5 million, 3.8 for the 5th, 3.5 for the 6th.



ETA:
Kieth Law also heard the rumor

I've heard this too. RT @r_mack: @keithlaw Any truth to rumor of Rockies taking Dominic Smith at # 3? (Peter Gammons tweeted earlier)

[MusicMan]

Gray.

... Jack.  The world is gray.

[Ebby Calvin]

Callis' final mock.

Has the Astros taking Gray.

Also,

The Rockies have been tied to California high school first baseman Dominic Smith for a while, though Wednesday rumors that they’ll take him if they can’t determine Bryant’s price tag are a bit too much to believe.

[pots]

Callis' final mock.

I thought this piece was interesting:

There was a lot of buzz Wednesday evening that the Cubs were closing in on a deal with Appel at No. 2, which could mean: a) he’d subsequently try to scare off Houston; b) he’d see if the Astros could trump Chicago’s offer; or c) no agreement is imminent and this is just an attempt to increase his leverage.

Appel is looking less likely with each passing hour. 

And add this nugget:

I’m told Gray’s positive test isn’t an issue with the Cubs either, and some of their decision-makers may prefer him to Appel.

So if the Stros go Bryant and the Cubs choose Gray and the Rockies pick Smith (especially with Byrant off the board), then Appel could be staring at a 4.5 million slot at best. 

[jbm]

It's always interesting to me to wade through the leaks and disinformation.  I assume everything is BS and try to figure out who leaked it and why.  Regarding the rumor that Appel has reached an agreement with Chicago, I understand the idea that Boras puts it out for the Astros to bid against.  I also understand the idea that it has never happened and Boras is trying to bolster the idea that Appel's value is such and such.  However, I don't understand the scaring off the Astros comment.  Is that supposed to mean that the Cubs leaked it, and that is supposed to scare off the Astros, or that Boras leaked it to scare of the Astros.  Either way, I can't imagine the Cubs would scare of the Astros if they want Appel and I don't know why Boras would want to scare of the Astros.

[Reuben]

Yeah I don't get that either. Unless he just really wants to play for the Cubs. Maybe he hates the DH.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Unless he just really wants to play for the Cubs.

Let's stay grounded in reality.

[MusicMan]

One thing I like about Bryant is that he didn't have a whole lot of help around him, where Moran's team was stacked.  I would pick Bryant, but I think they go pitcher and take Gray (ETA: at a discount, ~5.5)

ETA2:  And while I'm wildly speculating, Manaea in the 2nd and Cavan Biggio in the 3rd

Well, well, well...

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA 1m
Rumblings #Astros might be team to pop Manaea, at No. 40. Not sure what cost would be but they have $9.2 mil for top 2 picks. #mlbdraft

[astrosfan76]

I wouldn't blame them if they did, though there are a lot of "ifs" that go along with it:  If they're not worried about his health long-term, if they're expecting him to regain Cape performance, if his demands don't convince the club to settle for Moran at 1/1 for the extra funds, etc.

[MusicMan]

I wouldn't blame them if they did, though there are a lot of "ifs" that go along with it:  If they're not worried about his health long-term, if they're expecting him to regain Cape performance, if his demands don't convince the club to settle for Moran at 1/1 for the extra funds, etc.

Ifs and buts, candy and nuts.

[moriartp]

@jimcallisBA: No reason $9.2 mil not in ballpark to get Gray or Appel, then Manaea. #Astros #mlbdraft

[Reuben]

Left-handed starting pitching is the one major area remaining where they have no depth in the system. They are top-heavy in the OF, but they really have pretty much no LH SP prospects, just longshot guys like Cain.

[Reuben]

Not surprising except for Bryant's omission:

@pgammo 9m

GMs and agents think Luhnow will wait until at least 4 to decide Appel, Gray or Moran

[OregonStrosFan]

I thought this piece was interesting:
Appel is looking less likely with each passing hour. 

And add this nugget:
So if the Stros go Bryant and the Cubs choose Gray and the Rockies pick Smith (especially with Byrant off the board), then Appel could be staring at a 4.5 million slot at best. 

Well, well, well...

I am hoping they could get Manaea at 2.1 as well, but I would be very surprised if he dropped that far...

[jbm]

I still don't buy the line that Luhnow hasn't decided.  They have probably known for a long time.  The whole idea that they are equally comfortable with each, as long as the price is right, runs counter to a profession where careers are made and broken based on properly distingushing between players A and B.  They know who they want; it is just posturing. 

[Reuben]

I still don't buy the line that Luhnow hasn't decided.  They have probably known for a long time.  The whole idea that they are equally comfortable with each, as long as the price is right, runs counter to a profession where careers are made and broken based on properly distingushing between players A and B.  They know who they want; it is just posturing. 

SHhhhhhhhhh... $atan might hear you.

[Reuben]

I am hoping they could get Manaea at 2.1 as well, but I would be very surprised if he dropped that far...

It does seem risky to count on him falling that far, when the Yanks and Marlins both have (I believe) 4 picks before #40, which means they could easily bunch up some extra money for someone like Manaea. Then again, perhaps they know of 2-3 other mid-first-round types who might fall to #40, and figure they're bound to get one of them. I assume that's how it worked with McCullers last year.

[OregonStrosFan]

I still don't buy the line that Luhnow hasn't decided.  They have probably known for a long time.  The whole idea that they are equally comfortable with each, as long as the price is right, runs counter to a profession where careers are made and broken based on properly distingushing between players A and B.  They know who they want; it is just posturing.

This year, perhaps.  As to last year, however, my impression was that it really was an '11th hour' type deal.  

And I can't recall how I ultimately reached the following, but my impression of/conclusion on the 2012 draft was:

(1) there was a split among the talent evaluators as to who the top talent in the draft was; and,
(2) the ultimate decision came down to signing demands between the top talents (and it came at the '11th hour').

And so I'm clear, I've no doubt that there were evaluators in the room who believed Correa was the best talent in the draft.  My impression was, however, that if Appel's demands had been more reasonable, however, he'd've been taken at 1.1.  

And let me just add...  I could not be happier about the way that the 2012 draft unfolded.

[Noe]

Astros take Gray (speculation). And as far as the Cubs taking Appel, well two words for Scott Boras (like he cares): Mark Pryor

[OregonStrosFan]

[Bus Ride Programming Note] As we did last year, we'll be locking the 'Early Draft Thread' at 5 CDST and opening the '2013 Draftees and Status' thread at that time. [/Bus Ride Programming Note]

[jbm]

And so I'm clear, I've no doubt that there were evaluators in the room who believed Correa was the best talent in the draft.  My impression was, however, that if Appel's demands had been more reasonable, however, he'd've been taken at 1.1.  

And let me just add...  I could not be happier about the way that the 2012 draft unfolded.

I agree about the draft.  Missing out on Buxton or Gausman might be monumental, but if Correa works out well, they will have done well also. 

However, I have always assumed that the bit about them willing to take Appel if the price was right was Boras' spin.  If true, it brings into question their ability to evaluate talent (at the moment at least, as these thing fluctuate) as the concensus seems to be that Buxton and Gausman, just for starters, were far more worthy than Appel. 

[Jacksonian]

I am hoping they could get Manaea at 2.1 as well, but I would be very surprised if he dropped that far...

He has a torn labrum in his hip, apparently.

[pots]

I don't see how this year is that much different from last year.  There are plenty of people that think Bryant is the BPA and plenty who think Appel is.  And Moran and Gray have been touted as BPA as well.  Financial discussions will likely continue all day.  I would not be surprised if the final answer is still under discussion.

[pots]

I agree about the draft.  Missing out on Buxton or Gausman might be monumental, but if Correa works out well, they will have done well also. 

However, I have always assumed that the bit about them willing to take Appel if the price was right was Boras' spin.  If true, it brings into question their ability to evaluate talent (at the moment at least, as these thing fluctuate) as the concensus seems to be that Buxton and Gausman, just for starters, were far more worthy than Appel. 

Picking Correa over Buxton allowed the Stros to land McCullers and Ruiz.  Does their success or failure weigh in on whether or not it is Monumental?  I mean if Correa completely bombs but McCullers goes on to 4 CYs and Ruiz 8 All Star games...

[pots]

So for this year, if you came up with a grading system that had Appel at a 98 and Gray at a 97.  If Gray wants 2 million less than Appel, is it not worth it to take Gray and be able to improve later picks by a much more significant margin than just the 1 point for Appel?  (if it means getting an 85 with the second pick instead of a 75?).  Or is it better to just go BPA and take the 98 and 75?

[jbm]

I don't see how this year is that much different from last year.  There are plenty of people that think Bryant is the BPA and plenty who think Appel is.  And Moran and Gray have been touted as BPA as well.  Financial discussions will likely continue all day.  I would not be surprised if the final answer is still under discussion.

When the population holding the opinion includes everyone in the baseball community, pundits, fans, etc., then yeah, there are plenty of people who prefer one over the other.  But, within the Astros organization, more specifically, Luhnow and Elias, their reputations and futures depend on getting these things right.  Five years from now, if their pick sucks, and the one who asked for too much is a star, no one will remember the mitigating factors, and they will rightly look like fools.  But, they aren't fools, and they know this.  

[jbm]

So for this year, if you came up with a grading system that had Appel at a 98 and Gray at a 97.  If Gray wants 2 million less than Appel, is it not worth it to take Gray and be able to improve later picks by a much more significant margin than just the 1 point for Appel?  (if it means getting an 85 with the second pick instead of a 75?).  Or is it better to just go BPA and take the 98 and 75?

I just cant imagine that people in their profession, after scouting these two for years, would conclude that it is a virtual coin flip.  However, if they do, then what you say makes a lot of sense.

[pots]

When the population holding the opinion includes everyone in the baseball community, pundits, fans, etc., then yeah, there are plenty of people who prefer one over the other.  But, within the Astros organization, more specifically, Luhnow and Elias, their reputations and futures depend on getting these things right.  Five years from now, if their pick sucks, and the one who asked for too much is a star, no one will remember the mitigating factors, and they will rightly look like fools.  But, they aren't fools, and they know this.  

So if you take in the fact that any prospect no matter how good can bomb out, then does it not make more sense to get 2 or 3 high value picks if possible?  Given you lower your best pick by just a little bit

[pots]

I just cant imagine that people in their profession, after scouting these two for years, would conclude that it is a virtual coin flip.  However, if they do, then what you say makes a lot of sense.

No I'm sure they all settle on a pick as that is what they are hired for but I imagine that is more of a I like this player A more, but it wouldn't surprise me if player B turns out to be better.  Than a player A and there is no chance player B will be better.

[pots]

And then Law comes in with the curve....
https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/342702559808585729

Fair. Appel + him would be a nice bundle. RT @MorganHook: @keithlaw what are chances Manaea is still on board at 40 for Astros?

[pots]

I thought this piece was interesting:
Appel is looking less likely with each passing hour.  

And add this nugget:
So if the Stros go Bryant and the Cubs choose Gray and the Rockies pick Smith (especially with Byrant off the board), then Appel could be staring at a 4.5 million slot at best.  

Copied from MLBTR:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/06/draft-notes-twins-stewart-mariners-red-sox.html#disqus_thread

The Twins would be "pleased" if Gray or third baseman Kris Bryant made it past the first three picks, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.  It isn't as certain if the club would be happy if Stanford right-hander Mark Appel was still available, as Appel is advised by Scott Boras and would likely be a tougher sign.

ETA oops had the wrong link, the other has all the slot money info

[JackAstro]

Copied from MLBTR:
http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/6/4/4395338/mlb-draft-2013-team-budgets-and-first-round-values

So, what leverage does Appel have that would allow him to be a tough sign at #4? The Twins won't have a ton of wiggle room, and Appel has nowhere to go. What happens if he doesn't sign?

[Jacksonian]

So, what leverage does Appel have that would allow him to be a tough sign at #4? The Twins won't have a ton of wiggle room, and Appel has nowhere to go. What happens if he doesn't sign?

Indy-ball then back to next year's draft.

[jbm]

Indy-ball then back to next year's draft.

Wasn't there a guy a while back, close to top pick, who went indy after his senior year (in Fort Worth IIRC)? 

I thought he became a free agent, but maybe he went into the draft, or maybe the rules have changed.

[JackAstro]

Indy-ball then back to next year's draft.

Cool, then the Astros can draft him next year at #2.

[chuck]

Indy-ball then back to next year's draft.

I hope that's exactly what he does.

[Jacksonian]

Wasn't there a guy a while back, close to top pick, who went indy after his senior year (in Fort Worth IIRC)? 

I thought he became a free agent, but maybe he went into the draft, or maybe the rules have changed.

Luke Hochevar.

[BudGirl]

Cool, then the Astros can draft him next year at #2.

Milwaukee may find a way to screw the Astros yet.

[Reuben]

Luke Hochevar.

Didn't Aaron Crow do that too?

[pots]

Decision made?

https://twitter.com/astros/status/342738298629943296

All quiet in the #Astros draft room for now. Astros to make tonight's 1st overall pick at 6 pm CT on @MLBNetwork. pic.twitter.com/FSWat5Xus7

[Ebby Calvin]

Isn't Bryant a Boras guy, too?

[astrosfan76]

Decision made?

https://twitter.com/astros/status/342738298629943296

Heard Luhnow say yesterday that they would have a decision made by 4:00 today.  Guess they're ready and taking a break.

[pots]

https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/342745434755833857

Deja vu. Two hours before #mlbdraft, no concrete idea of what #Astros will do at No. 1. Killing me!

[Ebby Calvin]

Chipper Jones ‏@RealCJ10 2h
Got drafted by the Braves 23 yrs ago this week!  Hard to believe. Good luck to all draftees today! Ur life is about to change.......forever!

[astrosfan76]

From a PG chat:

Comment From Heidi
Churchill and Law are hearing that their is an above 50% chance that the Stro's take Appel. Console a terrified Cubs fan and tell me this isn't true!
4:00
   
David Rawnsley:
I was just told (3:55 pm) that the Astros are on either Kohl Stewart or Colin Moran. Don't underestimate their desire to get the deal done for the right price. Maybe they want Appel or Gray more, but they will do it at their price it seems.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Draft/DraftHQ.aspx

Now for the fun part.

[OregonStrosFan]

I can't place exactly why... but... the thought of taking Colin Moran at 1.1 bothers me leaves me uninspired...

ETA: Uninspired is a better way to put it...

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Ebby, want to explain why you follow Larry?

[BudGirl]

Maybe Ebby is a fan of Hooters.

[pots]

Kohl Stewart arguably has the greatest potential of all the top 10 guys, but a HS pitcher with 1-1, that's some brass ones

[Ebby Calvin]

Ebby, want to explain why you follow Larry?

Oh, c'mon, don't tell me you don't lay awake at night, wishing you could gaze long, hard and deep into Larry Wayne's eyes.  We all do it, right?  Guys?

(it was retweeted by MLB)

[Bench]

Ebby, want to explain why you follow Larry?

I'd like to hear that as well. 

[MusicMan]

@RealCJ10 How would you compare that life-changing moment to receiving your first paternity suit?

[MusicMan]

I can't place exactly why... but... the thought of taking Colin Moran at 1.1 bothers me leaves me uninspired...

ETA: Uninspired is a better way to put it...

He belongs with the Cardinals.

[Reuben]

He belongs with the Cardinals.

BFIB= zombies?

[MusicMan]

BFIB= zombies?

Yep.

[MusicMan]

From a PG chat:

http://www.perfectgame.org/Draft/DraftHQ.aspx

Now for the fun part.

Sickels' reaction:

Dang.  Rawnsley is extremely credible - nobody I trust more.

[JackAstro]

@RealCJ10 How would you compare that life-changing moment to receiving your first paternity suit?

Oh that's gold. If I had a twitter account that I used exclusively for making tacky jokes and trolling sports figures, I would absolutely steal that.

[MusicMan]

Oh that's gold. If I had a twitter account that I used exclusively for making tacky jokes and trolling sports figures, I would absolutely steal that.

In such a hypothetical, you would absolutely have my blessing.

[JackAstro]

In such a hypothetical, you would absolutely have my blessing.

/squeals with delight

[pots]

This Stewart thing seems like a real possibility.  Very interesting.  Immediate reactions to the Stros draft will end up being who they can get with the extra cash later on.  

ETA
And I'd like to point out not one industry expert, hack or otherwise had Stewart at 1-1.  Heck he wasn't in any of the lists of who the Stros were even considering for 1-1

[NeilT]

This Stewart thing seems like a real possibility.  Very interesting.  Immediate reactions to the Stros draft will end up being who they can get with the extra cash later on. 

I saw Stewart play a high school football game earlier this year.  I was surprised at how small he seemed.  It would be nice to have a Houston kid though, and a kid out of St. Pius X.

[roadrunner]

It's so hard to be critical one way or the other, but I wouldn't be a fan of this pick.

[Reuben]

I saw Stewart play a high school football game earlier this year.  I was surprised at how small he seemed.  It would be nice to have a Houston kid though, and a kid out of St. Pius X.

Wait, so Biggio was his baseball coach, or am I mixing schools up?

[johnstros]

Wait, so Biggio was his baseball coach, or am I mixing schools up?

Biggio coaches at St. Thomas.  They played against St. Pius.

[pots]

It's so hard to be critical one way or the other, but I wouldn't be a fan of this pick.

It all depends on who they get with the money later on.  Rather Stewart than Moran.  I'd guess Stewart would be for 4.8 to match Correa of last year then they'd have 3 million to over slot folks plus than can go something like 587k over with only a financial penalty.  

[OregonStrosFan]

I saw Stewart play a high school football game earlier this year.  I was surprised at how small he seemed.  It would be nice to have a Houston kid though, and a kid out of St. Pius X.

Isn't Appel a Houston kid?

[Reuben]

I'm more inclined to believe the Stewart thing just because he has not been mentioned anywhere, until this afternoon, as a choice for the Astros. Whereas their late interest in Moran was highly publicized, and just seemed like a leverage play. But who knows.

[HudsonHawk]

Isn't Appel a Houston kid?

Born here, but moved to California as a kid.

[astrosfan76]

It all depends on who they get with the money later on.  Rather Stewart than Moran.  I'd guess Stewart would be for 4.8 to match Correa of last year then they'd have 3 million to over slot folks plus than can go something like 587k over with only a financial penalty.  

I'd rather Stewart, also.  At least with him, you have impact potential.  If they're playing this game again, Stewart would fall to #4 or lower (though the Twins have been reported to be ready to draft him).  The #4 pick has a slot value of $4.54M, so yeah, they could probably do a Correa-type deal with him.  Not a huge fan of picking him, but it would be better than Moran.  I just hope they don't have a guy in mind for #40 and save all this money only to miss out.  

[OregonStrosFan]

In order to keep separate pre- and draft/post-draft threads, this 'Early 2013 Draft' thread is now closed and the '2013 Draftees and Status' thread is now open.