Very strange stat

[juliogotay]

Houston Astros have a run differential of +8 and a W-L of 7-12.

[OregonStrosFan]

Houston Astros have a run differential of +8 and a W-L of 7-12.

Wasn't it the Pythagoreans that said the world was going to end in 2012?!?

[hostros7]

Houston Astros have a run differential of +8 and a W-L of 7-12.

If you exclude the outliers (12-0 and 11-4 Astros) the team is -11. 

[OregonStrosFan]

If you exclude the outliers (12-0 and 11-4 Astros) the team is -11.

Which is (yet another reason) why I couldn't give a crap about the Pythagorean win/loss theory - it doesn't address outliers (in either direction)...

Anyway... on the general stats topic... McTaggart with some stat comparisons after 19 games in 2011 and 2012.  LINK

At 7-12, the Astros have the same record through 19 games as they did last year, but they have been much more competitive. Through 19 games last year, the Astros had been outscored 99-80 and outhit 186-169. This year through 19 games, they’ve outscored opponents 89-81 and outhit them 176-169. They have committed six more errors (19-13) through 19 games than they did last year.

Here are some more comparisons through 19 games: .262 average/.318 on-base percentage/.376 slugging percentage with nine homers and 74 RBIs through 19 games in 2011. .262/.338/.379 with 11 homers and 84 RBIs through 19 games this year. Their team ERA has improved to 3.96 this year from 4.63 at this point last year.

[juliogotay]

Which is (yet another reason) why I couldn't give a crap about the Pythagorean win/loss theory - it doesn't address outliers (in either direction)...

Anyway... on the general stats topic... McTaggart with some stat comparisons after 19 games in 2011 and 2012.  LINK

At 7-12, the Astros have the same record through 19 games as they did last year, but they have been much more competitive. Through 19 games last year, the Astros had been outscored 99-80 and outhit 186-169. This year through 19 games, they’ve outscored opponents 89-81 and outhit them 176-169. They have committed six more errors (19-13) through 19 games than they did last year.

Here are some more comparisons through 19 games: .262 average/.318 on-base percentage/.376 slugging percentage with nine homers and 74 RBIs through 19 games in 2011. .262/.338/.379 with 11 homers and 84 RBIs through 19 games this year. Their team ERA has improved to 3.96 this year from 4.63 at this point last year.

So the pitching is showing significantly better improvement than the offense. I expected to see more significant uptick in SLG and OBA.

[NeilT]

So the pitching is showing significantly better improvement than the offense. I expected to see more significant uptick in SLG and OBA.

I have the odd sense that it's the offense that's showing improvement.

[MusicMan]

I have the odd sense that it's the offense that's showing improvement.

How quickly we forget that last year's staff was getting us flat-out torched on a nightly basis.

[hostros7]

I have the odd sense that it's the offense that's showing improvement.

Comparable numbers, no pence, Bourn, barmes.

[Andyzipp]

I have the odd sense that it's the offense that's showing improvement.

That's because you're just watching with your eyes.

What do the stats say, dammit?!?

[subnuclear]

If you exclude the outliers (12-0 and 11-4 Astros) the team is -11. 

That Houston hasn't been blown out to balance those out is probably a good sign.

[Noe]

That's because you're just watching with your eyes.

What do the stats say, dammit?!?

Too funny. Run differential in this case is eggszactly as mentioned, they are pitching much better but still losing. Now if the question is "why are they losing,?" well... What do your eyes tell you?

 Errors
Lack of hitting with men on base
One bad inning of pitching here and there

Makes for th losing so far.

[Limey]

At 7-12, the Astros have the same record through 19 games as they did last year, but they have been much more competitive. Through 19 games last year, the Astros had been outscored 99-80 and outhit 186-169. This year through 19 games, they’ve outscored opponents 89-81 and outhit them 176-169. They have committed six more errors (19-13) through 19 games than they did last year.

Getting ready for the AL.

[NeilT]

That's because you're just watching with your eyes.

What do the stats say, dammit?!?

"Through 19 games last year, the Astros had been outscored 99-80 and outhit 186-169. This year through 19 games, they’ve outscored opponents 89-81 and outhit them 176-169. . . . Here are some more comparisons through 19 games: .262 average/.318 on-base percentage/.376 slugging percentage with nine homers and 74 RBIs through 19 games in 2011. .262/.338/.379 with 11 homers and 84 RBIs through 19 games this year."

[VirtualBob]

Too funny. Run differential in this case is eggszactly as mentioned, they are pitching much better but still losing. Now if the question is "why are they losing,?" well... What do your eyes tell you?

 Errors
Lack of hitting with men on base
One bad inning of pitching here and there

Makes for th losing so far.

Actually team run differential versus opponents is the single most important stat that can me measured in this game.  It just needs to be measured on a per-game basis.

[VirtualBob]

"Through 19 games last year, the Astros had been outscored 99-80 and outhit 186-169. This year through 19 games, they’ve outscored opponents 89-81 and outhit them 176-169. . . . Here are some more comparisons through 19 games: .262 average/.318 on-base percentage/.376 slugging percentage with nine homers and 74 RBIs through 19 games in 2011. .262/.338/.379 with 11 homers and 84 RBIs through 19 games this year."

Yeah, but they are a perfect 7-0 this year in games where they had a positive run differential.  Pretty impressive.

[Noe]

Actually team run differential versus opponents is the single most important stat that can me measured in this game.  It just needs to be measured on a per-game basis.

+1

[astrosfan76]

Too funny. Run differential in this case is eggszactly as mentioned, they are pitching much better but still losing. Now if the question is "why are they losing,?" well... What do your eyes tell you?

 Errors
Lack of hitting with men on base
One bad inning of pitching here and there

Makes for th losing so far.

Is lack of hitting with men on really the problem?  Their average with the bases loaded is an anemic .160, but they've driven in 15, which is tied for 7th, though they do lead the league in AB with the bases loaded.  Aside from that, I don't know that I would say that they've had trouble, though.  They have a .270 average with men on (10th in MLB) with 78 RBI (6th in MLB).  With men in scoring position, they have a .297 average (4th) with 68 RBI (5th).  I would agree with the other two observations.

[Noe]

Yeah, but they are a perfect 7-0 this year in games where they had a positive run differential.  Pretty impressive.

Too bad you cannot take the 12 run differential from Sunday's game and apply it to the next few games. That way, the Astros would have swept the Brewers without actually having to score more run per game.

[Noe]

Is lack of hitting with men on really the problem?  Their average with the bases loaded is an anemic .160, but they've driven in 15, which is tied for 7th, though they do lead the league in AB with the bases loaded.  Aside from that, I don't know that I would say that they've had trouble, though.  They have a .270 average with men on (10th in MLB) with 78 RBI (6th in MLB).  With men in scoring position, they have a .297 average (4th) with 68 RBI (5th).  I would agree with the other two observations.

Ahem. It's *when* you need to drive in a run, not *if* you've cumulatively driven in runs effectively. See, if you're trailing 3-2 and have the bases loaded one game and fail to drive in runs and then the next game, you drive in runs like crazy (see 12-0 blow out of Dodgers), you're going to show up really well on the stats. But you're also going to be 1-1 for the two games. Now take that and apply it to every game they lost by one or two runs and individually see if they were effective driving in runs when needed. There would be the explanation for the W-L record overall.

I will say this though, they keep getting men on base and having these chances, they may just start cashing in more in those one run games. But we were only talking about the current W-L record.

[JimR]

Actually team run differential versus opponents is the single most important stat that can me measured in this game.  It just needs to be measured on a per-game basis.

brilliant idea! apply for a job at BP. they need to be sharing this with readers.

[OregonStrosFan]

Actually team run differential versus opponents is the single most important stat that can me measured in this game.  It just needs to be measured on a per-game basis.

Friggin' awesome!

[EasTexAstro]

Does anyone think the small sample size might have an effect on the numbers being skewed?

They will be on the bad end of some blowouts, most likely, which will even things out. Either that, or they will start being on the winning end of more close games.

I'm thinking the blowouts are more likely.

The Pythagorean record really doesn't tell anyone much anyway, even after a full season. That run differential in each game, though? Lots.

[Waldo]

Actually team run differential versus opponents is the single most important stat that can me measured in this game.  It just needs to be measured on a per-game basis.

What the hell, nominated.

[Reuben]

Does anyone think the small sample size might have an effect on the numbers being skewed?

They will be on the bad end of some blowouts, most likely, which will even things out. Either that, or they will start being on the winning end of more close games.

I'm thinking the blowouts are more likely.

The Pythagorean record really doesn't tell anyone much anyway, even after a full season. That run differential in each game, though? Lots.

I think run-differential is interesting, and I do see a lot of positive signs from the offense this year, but I think Noe and others make a really good point: it's about driving in runs when you need it most. They piled on runs against the Nats because Davey Johnson left Tom Gorzelanny in there to take a beating and save the rest of the bullpen. Scoring runs hasn't come so easily off of the Axfords and Kershaws and so on of the league, and time will tell if the losing record thus far is mainly because they've faced a lot of tough pitchers in close games, or is it that too many of the Astro hitters (*coughJohnsoncough*) have a terrible approach in those situations, and they're trying to "do too much" and swinging at terrible pitches (or letting hittable ones go by).

Not to leave the pitchers off the hook for their part in the close-game Ls... it will be interesting to see how things shake out with this staff. So far, pretty mixed results.

[pots]

Houston Astros have a run differential of +8 and a W-L of 7-12.

It's just a sample size thing.  1 of 2 things is going to happen over 162 games, either the run differential is going to correct itself or the W/L will correct itself.  Maybe not completely, but mostly.  It would be amazing if the Astros finished +68 runs and 102 losses (their current pace).

[Andyzipp]

It's just a sample size thing.  1 of 2 things is going to happen over 162 games, either the run differential is going to correct itself or the W/L will correct itself.  Maybe not completely, but mostly.  It would be amazing if the Astros finished +68 runs and 102 losses (their current pace).

That's a 4 game improvement!

[pots]

That's a 4 game improvement!

I rounded down.  Could be 3

[Andyzipp]

I rounded down.  Could be 3

That's a 3 game improvement!

ROTROTROT!

[MRaup]

That's a 3 game improvement!

ROTROTROT!

I was wondering what that smell was...

[Fredia]

have you seen altuve and jd stats

[VirtualBob]

No ... Did you lose them?