Author Topic: A guy can dream, can't he?  (Read 18439 times)

Noe

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A guy can dream, can't he?
« on: August 30, 2010, 01:02:57 pm »
So this talk about a leader and a FOTF (marketing darling) got me thinking.  Dangerous, I know.  But what if... and yes, I concede that the what and the if are very huge in this case... but what if the Astros were serous bidders for the services of one Carl Crawford?  A couple of things to consider:

1. Carl Crawford could play left or right field for sure and that would move C. Lee to first almost permanently.  Brett Wallace?  Unless he is a platoon with C. Lee (and I wouldn't do that to the kid), he may have to spend one more year in AAA as insurance.
2. Carl Crawford playing right field may give Pence a run for his money, but I'm not sure if Crawford has better arm strength (odd thing to say I'm sure) than Pence.  He takes better routes to a ball, makes fewer mental mistakes, is accurate in his throws... so there is that.
3. Carl Crawford hitting second or third in anyone's lineup is a great thing to have.  Hitting fifth is an awesome thing to have.
4. FOTF?  If you spend tons of money to obtain him, you better market him as the FOTF else you won't be making your ROI quickly.

So, I know this sounds way too simplistic and very fan-boy-like, so shoot me.  But the Astros actually have a chance to do a quick splash in the off-season to reload and rebuild at the same time.  The key to me is the pitching.  How much do you trust Myers, Wandy, Norris, Haap and name the fifth starter to give you a quality rotation for the year?  How much do you trust Lyon as a full time closer?  Will Wilton Lopez be the next good setup man on the team?  Do you need one more power arm in the pen?  Do you go get a quality left-handed reliever that won't break the bank?  Can Jordan Lyles open some eyes next spring and help the team as a really good starter at the back end of the rotation?  Has Felipe Paulino finally proven he's probably going to be a reliever for his career and as such, he's a power arm for the 7th inning on?  Is Melanchon as good as looks for yet another power arm in the pen, probably a good setup man with Lopez?

If you're pretty confident your pitching ain't half bad, you can try to go get Crawford and if you can, that is one pretty solid team... young team... you're going into 2011 with.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2010, 01:08:47 pm by Noe in Austin »

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2010, 01:13:39 pm »
While we're dreaming, world out of St. Louis is that the BFiB and their Glorious Leader are looking to move Colby Rasmus.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2010, 01:22:45 pm »
Without any concrete justification for this claim, I think Crawford wants money that only the Yankees can provide. 

[my dream] Perhaps Wade can convince the Marlins brass that no one cares if they spend modest amounts of money to look like they're trying and pry Josh Johnson away from them (look at the Pirates!). [/my dream]

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2010, 01:28:04 pm »
To your point, Noe - I'm on board the Crawford train, IF:

a.  Lee is moved to 1b and can hit like the Lee of old, and not the Lee of 2010; OR
b.  Lee can be traded for a bag of balls AND Wallace can hit like every one thinks AND Johnson is the real deal at 3b.

I really, really like the way our pitching staff looks headed into 2011.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2010, 01:35:53 pm »

I really, really like the way our pitching staff looks headed into 2011.

Me too.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2010, 01:54:15 pm »
I'm not following all of the talk/concern of the FOTF tag.  Other than speculation that Pam is somehow involved in making personnel decisions based on this, who cares?  Is/should that really be considered with any significant weight right now?
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2010, 01:58:29 pm »
I could see this possibly happening, at least in the sense that I would expect Wade to contact Crawford just to find out if he's willing to listen.  I don't mean hometown discount, just whether or not he's remotely close to their budget.  

The other contingency could involve signing Crawford, and then trading Lee mid-season after Wallace has had some time to season in Round Ro--um, somewhere.  After all, we're all just speculating at this point.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2010, 01:59:35 pm »
I'm not following all of the talk/concern of the FOTF tag.  Other than speculation that Pam is somehow involved in making personnel decisions based on this, who cares?  Is/should that really be considered with any significant weight right now?

Should?  No. 

But this franchise, right or wrong, is driven by an owner who values ticket sales NOW over everything else.

Noe

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2010, 02:00:30 pm »
I'm not following all of the talk/concern of the FOTF tag.  Other than speculation that Pam is somehow involved in making personnel decisions based on this, who cares?  Is/should that really be considered with any significant weight right now?

Methinks it is only important if you're going to spend money.  Spend money to make money is a tried and true formula if you know how to market.  Drayton does spend, that has never been the issue with those in the know.  It's how he spends it and how it intends for it to make money for the team in return.  If a spend on a Carl Crawford is justified because he basically pays for himself in marketing dollars for the team (more turnstiles... ahum... turning, more merchandise moving, etc.), then Drayton would spend.  How much is the part that only Pam and her demographics and marketing people know for sure.  But you can spend plenty on a player who hits high on the marketing meter.

That is perhaps the only reason it may fit in terms of a spend along with the other sound baseball reasons.  See MM's variables as well for conditions that would definitely make the Astros think about this long and hard (baseball-wise).

Noe

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2010, 02:04:10 pm »
To your point, Noe - I'm on board the Crawford train, IF:

a.  Lee is moved to 1b and can hit like the Lee of old, and not the Lee of 2010; OR
b.  Lee can be traded for a bag of balls AND Wallace can hit like every one thinks AND Johnson is the real deal at 3b.

I really, really like the way our pitching staff looks headed into 2011.

I'd add one more: Jeff Bagwell sticks around for one more season as the clubhouse mentor to this leaderless buncha hitters.  Then it becomes whoever emerges as the leader's team.  One more season Jeff, just one more season.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2010, 02:13:57 pm »
I'm not following all of the talk/concern of the FOTF tag.  Other than speculation that Pam is somehow involved in making personnel decisions based on this, who cares?  Is/should that really be considered with any significant weight right now?

You are correct. This is a classic case of the tail wagging the dog.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2010, 02:17:01 pm by Ron Brand »
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2010, 02:15:38 pm »
Should?  No. 

But this franchise, right or wrong, is driven by an owner who values ticket sales NOW over everything else.

Wins = AIS. FOTF is what happens after you start winning.
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Andyzipp

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2010, 02:16:14 pm »
I'd add one more: Jeff Bagwell sticks around for one more season as the clubhouse mentor to this leaderless buncha hitters.  Then it becomes whoever emerges as the leader's team.  One more season Jeff, just one more season.

Unless something dramatic changes, I would expect Bagwell to be employed as a hitting coach for quite a while.


Andyzipp

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2010, 02:17:16 pm »
Wins = AIS. FOTF is what happens after you start winning.

Bobble Heads also = AIS.

Look for 70 such days next year.  Especially looking forward to the Wallace Bobble Ass Day.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2010, 02:18:02 pm »
Let's not forget that every Saturday is Faith and Family Night.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2010, 02:36:14 pm »
I'd add one more: Jeff Bagwell sticks around for one more season as the clubhouse mentor to this leaderless buncha hitters.  Then it becomes whoever emerges as the leader's team.  One more season Jeff, just one more season.

I'm hoping this is a given.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2010, 02:38:40 pm »
I'm hoping this is a given.

I hope so too but everything I've read tempers that hope with mention of his young children and how much he doesn't want to miss events in their lives while they're growing up. I guess we'll know in October or so.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2010, 02:53:54 pm »
a.  Lee is moved to 1b and can hit like the Lee of old, and not the Lee of 2010;

How about the Lee of the most recent 30 days of 2010, in which he has lead the majors in RBI?
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2010, 03:02:03 pm »
How about the Lee of the most recent 30 days of 2010, in which he has lead the majors in RBI?

That I would take.  My point being, if you're going to go with an outfield of Crawford-Bourn-Pence, you're going to need some significant power from your corner IF spots.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2010, 03:05:19 pm »
That I would take.  My point being, if you're going to go with an outfield of Crawford-Bourn-Pence, you're going to need some significant power from your corner IF spots.

Damn straight.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #20 on: August 30, 2010, 03:14:58 pm »
I assume Crawford is multi-year, tons of cash.  Do many of these type free agent acquisitions work out well in the long term? 

Not saying they don't (I'm trying to think of some recent non-Yankee ones), but I'd worry about how it might constrain moves down the line.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #21 on: August 30, 2010, 03:43:03 pm »
I like the idea of adding Crawford.  But if they are going to throw that kind of cash at one player, I'd rather they go after Cliff Lee. 
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #22 on: August 30, 2010, 03:47:25 pm »
Is there enough money in the Latin American development budget to fund this free agent signing?

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2010, 08:13:59 pm »
I think the biggest issue would be convincing Crawford this team can compete in the near term.  Despite the solid play the last month and the fact that the Astros could end up 3rd in the division, everyone still thinks they are as bad as the Pirates.  This happens every year, though.  Unless you make the playoffs, people assume where you were at the trade deadline is when your season ended.

Yeah Crawford wants lots of money, but Drayton isn't going to out bid NYY.  So how in the world do you convince Crawford to come home to an awful team (at least according to most people) at a discount instead of going to the mighty Yanks and make trillions more? 

I just don't see it happening.  It reminds me of conversations I was having about the Rockets and Chris Bosh earlier this summer. 

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #24 on: August 30, 2010, 10:43:39 pm »
I think the biggest issue would be convincing Crawford this team can compete in the near term.  Despite the solid play the last month and the fact that the Astros could end up 3rd in the division, everyone still thinks they are as bad as the Pirates.  This happens every year, though.  Unless you make the playoffs, people assume where you were at the trade deadline is when your season ended.

When it actually ended shortly into week 2.
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A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #25 on: August 31, 2010, 08:55:32 am »
Signing Crawford becomes even more problematic if Berkman is willing to come back at a reasonable price.
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Andyzipp

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #26 on: August 31, 2010, 09:00:25 am »
Signing Crawford becomes even more problematic if Berkman is willing to come back at a reasonable price.

Berkman is not coming back.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #27 on: August 31, 2010, 09:12:55 am »
Berkman is not coming back.

I wouldn't be surprised if Berkman retires after the season.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #28 on: August 31, 2010, 09:53:17 am »
Signing Crawford becomes even more problematic if Berkman is willing to come back at a reasonable price.

Resigning Berkman would go against everything the Astros are trying to accomplish right now.  And this trade to the Yankees has turned out to be disastrous for him -- which really sucks because he doesn't deserve what has happened to him.  I also think that he retires. 

I think that Wallace is the first baseman of this team next season -- hopefully the hitting comes around -- and Lee stays in left field.  So I don't see where Crawford fits in.  I could see the Astros going after a significant left field acquisition for the 2012 season, but not for next year.  If the Astros are going to spend a ton of money on a free agent, I also hope they look at starting pitching. 
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #29 on: August 31, 2010, 09:55:13 am »
if Berkman came back, it would not be to play every day imo.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #30 on: August 31, 2010, 09:55:39 am »
If the Astros are going to spend a ton of money on a free agent, I also hope they look at starting pitching. 

Unless you're getting Cliff Lee, I disagree.  I'm more than happy to go to next year with Wandy-Myers-Happ-Norris-Lyles.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #31 on: August 31, 2010, 09:59:20 am »
I could see the Astros going after a significant left field acquisition for the 2012 season, but not for next year. 

I just checked the 2012 free agents.  Given that corner OF is the primary position of depth on the farm, I don't think you get a FA for that.  But 1b?

Fielder
Adrian Gonzalez
Casey Kotchman
Swisher

If Wallace doesn't pan out, you might see a move there.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #32 on: August 31, 2010, 10:22:15 am »
It is interesting to read the arguments against obtaining Carl Crawford:

1. Too expensive - Yes, top of the line FA are.  That is why you need ROI that goes beyond baseball dividends.  McLane is a business man, if it makes sense to him that he has nothing, nada, zip, zilch to market to make folks come out to the ballpark (other than winning baseball, but that does not reach fringe fans any how), then he knows he can make such an investment and create the buzz in the city once again.  Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio... if they were FAs on the market, and knowing what he knows about ROI, would McLane pass them up simply because it cost premium dollars?  You undersell McLane (pun intended).

2. Expense FAs are prone to be bust - Yes, any FA can become a bust, but think of the major bust of the recent history.  All of them were pitchers (so why would you guys say I'd rather spend the money on a pitcher?)  Hampton, Kevin Brown, Barry Zito.  Yeah, if you're worried about a bust FA, worry more if said investment is a pitcher it seems.

3. Where does Carl Crawford want to go? - I know the lure of New York, especially the Yankees, sends a thrill down the spine of any major league baseball player (and Alkie).  Is it the money?  Yes.  Is the crowds? Yes.  Is the idea to test and see if you have what it takes to play in such a media hot house?  Yes.  All of the above.  If you are a major leaguer, you are bound to have somewhat of an ego, so the Yankees represent everything said ego needs to feed itself.  So to sell Crawford on Houston, what should be done is feed the same ego with different perspectives, such as "here you will be THE MAN, and if all goes well, you will become the Mayor of Houston!".

Any way, I am surprised how little regard Carl Crawford draws as a major get for Houston.  What I've seen of the Astros lately is if they need pitching, a top of the line FA acquire isn't what is missing.  What is missing is perhaps a veteran or two, primarily for the bullpen.  Brett Myers was given an extension because he's proven already he is *that* FA veteran arm that you guys are coveting.  What Houston really needs is for consistency from Wandy, good health from Haap, and maturity from Norris (and a changeup that is developed further than it is).  Mix in a surprise from Jordan Lyles and/or someone else and you're rock solid in that department... knock on wood.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2010, 10:24:18 am by Noe in Austin »

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #33 on: August 31, 2010, 10:34:06 am »
So, one player's absence from this discussion is a concern, to me.  Has everyone discarded Paulino as an impressive but prone to injury pitcher?  With all he did this year, I sure hope not. 

As for Crawford, don't get me wrong.  I would love to see him play in Houston, moving Lee to 1B (assuming he is not traded).  I just don't see it happening (sorry for being a buzz kill).
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #34 on: August 31, 2010, 10:39:29 am »
and Lee stays in left field.  So I don't see where Crawford fits in.

If you have a chance to get Carl Crawford, you *make* a place for him to fit. 
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #35 on: August 31, 2010, 10:40:36 am »
So, one player's absence from this discussion is a concern, to me.  Has everyone discarded Paulino as an impressive but prone to injury pitcher?  With all he did this year, I sure hope not. 

As for Crawford, don't get me wrong.  I would love to see him play in Houston, moving Lee to 1B (assuming he is not traded).  I just don't see it happening (sorry for being a buzz kill).

I think Paulino is rightfully ignored as he's never been able to throw more than ~130 IP in any season.  And he's had an injury in nearly every year.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #36 on: August 31, 2010, 10:40:48 am »
2. Expense FAs are prone to be bust - Yes, any FA can become a bust, but think of the major bust of the recent history.  All of them were pitchers (so why would you guys say I'd rather spend the money on a pitcher?)  Hampton, Kevin Brown, Barry Zito.  Yeah, if you're worried about a bust FA, worry more if said investment is a pitcher it seems.

Alfonso Soriano
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Carlos Beltran (arguably)
Jason Bay
Aaron Rowand
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #37 on: August 31, 2010, 10:41:33 am »
Has everyone discarded Paulino as an impressive but prone to injury pitcher?  With all he did this year, I sure hope not. 

I'm not convinced a healthy Paulino would crack the starting rotation I outlined above.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #38 on: August 31, 2010, 10:47:32 am »
The argument against Crawford is how much more does he add to the team vs. the cost associated with the addition (in terms of money spent on him, money no longer available to spend in other areas, and MLB development time lost for other players). 

Whether you like the players or not, the outfield is set for next year with Bourn, Pence and Lee.  Sure Lee could be moved to 1B, but then Wallace is back to Triple-A or riding the pine. That may make the club better next year, but is it better for the club in the long run? I think not. They could also move Lee or Pence, but neither of those moves are particularly realistic.

Crawford is a good talent, but there are a lot of other 'wishful' acquires I'd have for the team before another corner outfielder - even one with Crawford's talents.  Time to give up this pipe dream my friend...
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #39 on: August 31, 2010, 10:51:06 am »

So to sell Crawford on Houston, what should be done is feed the same ego with different perspectives, such as "here you will be THE MAN, and if all goes well, you will become the Mayor of Houston!".


I don't know Carl but I see quite a lot of him here, both on the field and in interviews, commercials, etc. He strikes me as a very low key guy, someone not prone to flash or desire for the spotlight. The only thing that makes me think that the Rays, or Houston or any other team that won't want to pony up ridiculous amounts of cash won't get him is only that, cash. He hasn't said, "I want shitloads of cash" but that is the air of feeling about him, coming primarily from the fact that the Rays couldn't extend him. One thing I do know with certainty is that he does not show much of an ego that needs feeding. I may be wrong...

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #40 on: August 31, 2010, 10:52:30 am »
Unless you're getting Cliff Lee, I disagree.  I'm more than happy to go to next year with Wandy-Myers-Happ-Norris-Lyles.

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Give Lyles some more Triple-A seasoning and bring him in late enough in the season to avoid him obtaining super two arbitration eligibility.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #41 on: August 31, 2010, 10:55:44 am »
And while we're talking about folks we'd like to see signed, my interest is more immediate - i.e. what happens tomorrow when Barret Loux becomes a free agent.
In the end, my dissolution with the game of baseball will not be a result of any loss of love for the game, rather from the realization that I can no longer bear the anger its supposed stewards cause to be built up in my soul. -Lee (01/08/2013)

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #42 on: August 31, 2010, 10:59:39 am »
I can buy into Carl Crawford as a great "get" if you are trying to build a contentder, but are we really there yet?  Next year's lineup has a lot of exciting potential but there are an awful lot of "ifs" in there to start spending big free agent money on, IMO.  Why not hold that money until mid-season next year to see if you are really close enough to make a push.

I know that Crawford is the kind of player that SNS would be excited about, but I'm not buying into him as a big marketing win beyond core baseball fans.  He doesn't bring the HOF mentions or monster HR numbers that are so easily marketable.  He's played his entire career in another league on the East coast, so there is no built in name recognition.  You would have to convince the buying public that he was a big deal.  I cannot see my wife or non-baseball friends being compelled by Crawford, regardless of marketing brilliance.

Sadly, Adam Dunn would be the easier sell, with the same hometown angle (which we already have in Bourn) because he hits a lot of long balls.  I think the team wins more games with Crawford over Dunn and that certainly helps, but neither would do any good past May if we don't hit on almost all of our "unprovens" on the rest of the team.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #43 on: August 31, 2010, 11:04:57 am »
I can buy into Carl Crawford as a great "get" if you are trying to build a contentder, but are we really there yet?  Next year's lineup has a lot of exciting potential but there are an awful lot of "ifs" in there to start spending big free agent money on, IMO.  Why not hold that money until mid-season next year to see if you are really close enough to make a push.

Because the idea is to build a team with more than simply next season in mind.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #44 on: August 31, 2010, 11:08:41 am »
Because the idea is to build a team with more than simply next season in mind.


Crawford has been there, done that. I just don't see the desire he would have to come here, other than being home.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #45 on: August 31, 2010, 11:20:20 am »
Time to give up this pipe dream my friend...

To answer your question, Noe, no.  A guy can't dream.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #46 on: August 31, 2010, 11:22:58 am »
To answer your question, Noe, no.  A guy can't dream.

Aye, there's the rub.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #47 on: August 31, 2010, 11:23:54 am »
Considering that Hunter Pence (.280) is about the only offensive piece that you can reasonable project based on past performance (ugh), are we that certain that everything will come together next year.  It doesn't take many busts for this team to be on the 3 year recovery plan as opposed to the 6-month plan we seem to be hoping for.

That is a lot of money to pay now for the benefit of Carl Crawford in 3 years.

I'm not saying it is a bad move, gettting great players almost never is.  But I doubt its marketing impact and question the overall value for price.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #48 on: August 31, 2010, 11:46:41 am »
Crawford has been there, done that. I just don't see the desire he would have to come here, other than being home.

I'd imagine the Astros could dangle several tens of millions of reasons in front of him.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #49 on: August 31, 2010, 11:49:54 am »
I'd imagine the Astros could dangle several tens of millions of reasons in front of him.

Sure. For the record, I'd love to see it. I just can't.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #50 on: August 31, 2010, 11:57:35 am »
Sure. For the record, I'd love to see it. I just can't.

OK.  But I still wouldn't turn down a deal to get him simply because a) you already have Carlos Lee in LF next season and b) you still might be another year away from contending.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #51 on: August 31, 2010, 12:10:24 pm »
If they can move Lee in the offseason then that would be the best thing to do. Maybe his pretty decent play at first could help with that but that's probably as much of a longshot as getting Crawford.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #52 on: August 31, 2010, 12:10:40 pm »
Crawford is a good talent, but there are a lot of other 'wishful' acquires I'd have for the team before another corner outfielder - even one with Crawford's talents. 

Wow!

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #53 on: August 31, 2010, 12:14:55 pm »
To answer your question, Noe, no.  A guy can't dream.

Well played sir.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #54 on: August 31, 2010, 12:19:52 pm »
Because the idea is to build a team with more than simply next season in mind.


if i were a player in his position, this is the last thing i would want to do. i would want to win now because time is running out.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #55 on: August 31, 2010, 12:23:50 pm »
if i were a player in his position, this is the last thing i would want to do. i would want to win now because time is running out.

He's 28 years old, one year younger than Michael Bourn.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #56 on: August 31, 2010, 12:24:47 pm »
He's 28 years old, one year younger than Michael Bourn.

same reply. how long will it take to win big in Houston?
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #57 on: August 31, 2010, 12:26:23 pm »
I'm not convinced a healthy Paulino would crack the starting rotation I outlined above.

I'm fairly certain a healthy Paulino could crack that rotation.  I'm also very skeptical we'll ever see Paulino that healthy for any significant amount of time.  I'm sure he'll be given his chance, though.

Count me among those who will be surprised if the Astros spend much time at all pursuing Crawford.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #58 on: August 31, 2010, 12:27:08 pm »
if i were a player in his position, this is the last thing i would want to do. i would want to win now because time is running out.

I'd want to win now too.  But if I'm the Astros, I'd still want him, if I could get him.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #59 on: August 31, 2010, 12:29:12 pm »
same reply. how long will it take to win big in Houston?

A lot quicker if Carl Crawford were to come here.  All I'm saying is the opportunity is at hand.  The pitching in Houston has given rise to renewed hope that this team is going to be alright.  The defense up the middle is there.  The corners must produce the runs (and power) and there is a chance and if you get Crawford, all the better.

I'm not really advocating the idea of getting Crawford because of fanta-crap thoughts or somehow it would be neato-bandito to see him in the Blood and Mud.  I honestly believe Houston improves 1000 percent with this guy on the club.  All it takes is money and of course Crawford wanting to be here.  Is it five years away for Houston to make it back to NL Central contender?  Not if the pitching is for real and if the investment in all those kids like Lyles will be coming home to roost soon.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #60 on: August 31, 2010, 12:30:00 pm »
same reply. how long will it take to win big in Houston?

That depends on the players they can get.  But I don't get the logic that the Astros shouldn't sign the players that will put them in position to win until they start winning.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #61 on: August 31, 2010, 12:31:38 pm »
I'd want to win now too.  But if I'm the Astros, I'd still want him, if I could get him.

oh, of course. i was talking about Crawford's wants.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #62 on: August 31, 2010, 12:31:43 pm »
He is 1 year older than bourn.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #63 on: August 31, 2010, 12:32:15 pm »
I'm fairly certain a healthy Paulino could crack that rotation.  I'm also very skeptical we'll ever see Paulino that healthy for any significant amount of time.  I'm sure he'll be given his chance, though.

Count me among those who will be surprised if the Astros spend much time at all pursuing Crawford.



Paulino and Melanchon give you two power arms in the bullpen.  That is nothing to sneeze at.  Ed Wade knows how to build (and tinker) with a bullpen.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #64 on: August 31, 2010, 12:32:40 pm »
That depends on the players they can get.  But I don't get the logic that the Astros shouldn't sign the players that will put them in position to win until they start winning.

whose logic is that? i was talking about Crawford, not the Astros.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #65 on: August 31, 2010, 12:32:59 pm »
Paulino and Melanchon give you two power arms in the bullpen.  That is nothing to sneeze at.  Ed Wade knows how to build (and tinker) with a bullpen.

indeed he does.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #66 on: August 31, 2010, 12:33:18 pm »
He is 1 year older than bourn.

Yeah, sorry, that's what I meant, but my brain said "Bourn is one year younger" and so I typed "Crawford is one year younger than Bourn".  I suck.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #67 on: August 31, 2010, 12:35:26 pm »
whose logic is that? i was talking about Crawford, not the Astros.

I was talking about the Astros.  It was said that the Astros shouldn't sign him because they may not be ready to compete next season.  Being another year or two away wouldn't stop me at all.  I'd sign him in a heartbeat, if I could.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #68 on: August 31, 2010, 12:36:53 pm »
Wow!

Wow? I thought we were discussing unrealistic pipe dreams in this thread.  in that vein there are other players potentially available in '11 (and '12) who are better than Crawford and/or who would fill positions more in question than the Astros corner outfield slots for '11 or '12.
In the end, my dissolution with the game of baseball will not be a result of any loss of love for the game, rather from the realization that I can no longer bear the anger its supposed stewards cause to be built up in my soul. -Lee (01/08/2013)

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #69 on: August 31, 2010, 12:39:11 pm »
whose logic is that? i was talking about Crawford, not the Astros.

There is hardly anything in the papers about what he wants, so pundits speculate its about "money" (always the good default), so I've been using that as a cornerstone of my argument... the Astros should not concern themselves with the price tag unless it's a Scott Boras type of raping.  If it's pricey, I still say go and find out if all he really wants is dinero and make your play.

He can truly be a difference maker.  Calling him anything but is strange to me (and I'm not talking about you saying that, but the Astros have a unique opportunity and a recent history that shows promise in terms of pitching).  What better way for McLane to prop himself up to fans and say "I care about winning and being a champion... so that is why I went out and got Carl to come home".  Now, if Crawford wants to go back to the World Series *AND* money, then he can do what Texiera, Burnett and Sabathia did (and many other mercenaries before them).  It's all good.  But for me to say this kid with all the five tools is not someone the Astros should pursue is kinda of crazy.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #70 on: August 31, 2010, 12:40:17 pm »
Wow? I thought we were discussing unrealistic pipe dreams in this thread.  in that vein there are other players potentially available in '11 (and '12) who are better than Crawford and/or who would fill positions more in question than the Astros corner outfield slots for '11 or '12.

Okay, duly noted.  I disaree with you.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #71 on: August 31, 2010, 12:43:07 pm »
Okay, duly noted.  I disaree with you.

Fair enough.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #72 on: August 31, 2010, 12:45:30 pm »
Fair enough.

I'm interested though, want to amplify on this:

"there are other players potentially available in '11 (and '12) who are better than Crawford and/or who would fill positions more in question than the Astros corner outfield slots for '11 or '12."

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #73 on: August 31, 2010, 12:46:36 pm »
There is hardly anything in the papers about what he wants, so pundits speculate its about "money" (always the good default), so I've been using that as a cornerstone of my argument... the Astros should not concern themselves with the price tag unless it's a Scott Boras type of raping.  If it's pricey, I still say go and find out if all he really wants is dinero and make your play.

He can truly be a difference maker.  Calling him anything but is strange to me (and I'm not talking about you saying that, but the Astros have a unique opportunity and a recent history that shows promise in terms of pitching).  What better way for McLane to prop himself up to fans and say "I care about winning and being a champion... so that is why I went out and got Carl to come home".  Now, if Crawford wants to go back to the World Series *AND* money, then he can do what Texiera, Burnett and Sabathia did (and many other mercenaries before them).  It's all good.  But for me to say this kid with all the five tools is not someone the Astros should pursue is kinda of crazy.

Would he cost draft picks?
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #74 on: August 31, 2010, 12:48:25 pm »
Would he cost draft picks?

If the Rays provide arbitration, yes he would.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #75 on: August 31, 2010, 12:51:00 pm »
If the Rays provide arbitration, yes he would.

Does that change your opinion at all?
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #76 on: August 31, 2010, 12:52:02 pm »
Alfonso Soriano
Magglio Ordonez
Carlos Beltran (arguably)
Jason Bay
Aaron Rowand

What age were these guys hitting Free Agency?  I'd hardly cast Rowand, Bay or Ordonez in the same level as Crawford.  Beltran?  Maybe, that is a good comparison.  Soriano?  Free swinging, defensively challenged, over-hyped Alfonso?  I dunno about that one.  I'm just glad you didn't go all Gary Mathews on me though.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #77 on: August 31, 2010, 12:52:24 pm »
Does that change your opinion at all?

Nope.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #78 on: August 31, 2010, 12:52:47 pm »
There is hardly anything in the papers about what he wants, so pundits speculate its about "money" (always the good default), so I've been using that as a cornerstone of my argument... the Astros should not concern themselves with the price tag unless it's a Scott Boras type of raping.  If it's pricey, I still say go and find out if all he really wants is dinero and make your play.

He can truly be a difference maker.  Calling him anything but is strange to me (and I'm not talking about you saying that, but the Astros have a unique opportunity and a recent history that shows promise in terms of pitching).  What better way for McLane to prop himself up to fans and say "I care about winning and being a champion... so that is why I went out and got Carl to come home".  Now, if Crawford wants to go back to the World Series *AND* money, then he can do what Texiera, Burnett and Sabathia did (and many other mercenaries before them).  It's all good.  But for me to say this kid with all the five tools is not someone the Astros should pursue is kinda of crazy.

I agree with all of this, from the Astros perspective. They should pursue him. But if we are speculating about unknowns, like whether that would even be in the Astros' plans, we also can speculate about whether Carl would have any other interest in coming to Houston, beyond what kind of money they pay him and this being his hometown. He and Longoria are the undisputed stars of the Rays, however, CC is the only one who was there when the team had promise but was not so good. He was quiet and just went about his work but you could tell it didn't sit well with him. I think it would take a ton of jack to get him to walk into that situation again. I just get that feeling about him.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #79 on: August 31, 2010, 12:53:06 pm »
Nope.

Isn't that how we got here in the first place?
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #80 on: August 31, 2010, 12:53:59 pm »
Isn't that how we got here in the first place?

Explain?

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #81 on: August 31, 2010, 12:54:43 pm »
I agree with all of this, from the Astros perspective. They should pursue him.

Yeah, that's all I'm talking about.  So we agree?

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #82 on: August 31, 2010, 12:55:20 pm »
Yeah, that's all I'm talking about.  So we agree?

Absolutely.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #83 on: August 31, 2010, 01:01:30 pm »
Explain?

Giving up draft picks for short term wins, when you're realistically trying to put together a long term game plan, seems counter productive.  It made sense when the Astros were contending, on the cusp of, and reaching, the WS.  These guys are fun to watch right now, but if next season drags (as should be considered very likely) as the young guys learn to put it together for a full season, are you really going to value his play over the potential of another big draft?
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #84 on: August 31, 2010, 01:02:54 pm »
Absolutely.

Cool, because if CC were to look into his childhood friend's eyes and ask "What do you think... the Astros getting better?" and Bourn says "Dude, ten years ain't enough for this team to get better", then yeah, forgetaboutit.  But what I'm saying is all about the Astros.  They should not discount themselves if these things are evident to them:

1. We invested in Myers because he's going to be the anchor of the staff and Haap, Wandy, Norris give us a great chance next year.  We have not been this solid in terms of going into next season with starters as we are now.  Unless of course, everyone in the Astros believe all four are mirages.
2. The defense up the middle is solid with Castro/Quintero, Keppinger/Sanchez, Manzella/Sanchez, Bourn/Bougeous.
3. Bullpen needs tinkering, maybe some middle level FA gets here...

so that leaves the power, run producing part of the club.  The part that was woefully missing for 1/3 rd of the season.  The part we talked about in terms of "lost of bat speed" for Berkman, "age" for Lee, "baffling" in terms of Feliz, and "spastic" for Pence.   Without those four producing, this team went south in a hurry.  So now you've got young kids taking over and if you add a Crawford to that corner producing mix, I say you get a ton better.

1000 tons better.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2010, 01:06:00 pm by Noe in Austin »

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #85 on: August 31, 2010, 01:03:12 pm »
Giving up draft picks for short term wins,

I don't think you can call CC a "short" term anything.  The presumption would be a long-term contract on a relatively young player.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #86 on: August 31, 2010, 01:03:45 pm »
Giving up draft picks for short term wins, when you're realistically trying to put together a long term game plan, seems counter productive.  It made sense when the Astros were contending, on the cusp of, and reaching, the WS.  These guys are fun to watch right now, but if next season drags (as should be considered very likely) as the young guys learn to put it together for a full season, are you really going to value his play over the potential of another big draft?

What?  Short terms wins?  Is that what everyone thinks I'm saying?  If so, I truly suck at communicating.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #87 on: August 31, 2010, 01:05:17 pm »
I don't think you can call CC a "short" term anything.  The presumption would be a long-term contract on a relatively young player.

Think Colorado going after Biggio when he hit FA status.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #88 on: August 31, 2010, 01:08:28 pm »
Cool, because if CC were to look into his childhood friend's eyes and ask "What do you think... the Astros getting better?" and Bourn says "Dude, ten years ain't enough for this team to get better", then yeah, forgetaboutit.  But what I'm saying is all about the Astros.  They should not discount themselves if these things are evident to them:

1. We invested in Myers because he's going to be the anchor of the staff and Haap, Wandy, Norris give us a great chance next year.  We have not been this solid in terms of going into next season with starters as we are now.  Unless of course, everyone in the Astros believe all four are mirages.
2. The defense up the middle is solid with Castro/Quintero, Keppinger/Sanchez, Manzella/Sanchez, Bourn/Bougeous.
3. Bullpen needs tickering, maybe some middle level FA gets here...

so that leaves the power, run producing part of the club.  The part that was woefully missing for 1/3 rd of the season.  The part we talked about in terms of "lost of bat speed" for Berkman, "age" for Lee, "baffling" in terms of Feliz, and "spastic" for Pence.   Without those four producing, this team went south in a hurry.  So now you've got young kids taking over and if you add a Crawford to that corner producing mix, I say you get a ton better.

1000 tons better.

The only thing that worries me about Crawford on this Astros team that lacks power is that he lacks power.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #89 on: August 31, 2010, 01:08:41 pm »
I'm just glad you didn't go all Gary Mathews on me though.

I don't think anyone other than Mathews and his agent thought that was a good idea.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #90 on: August 31, 2010, 01:09:02 pm »
The only thing that worries me about Crawford on this Astros team that lacks power is that he lacks power.

Thus my insistence on power from corner IF if he's here.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #91 on: August 31, 2010, 01:09:34 pm »
Excerpted from a sports report (St Pete fishwrap) on Carl Crawford:

Quote
"He's such a unique player in today's game," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "He's so strong, one of the strongest runners I've seen. He covers an incredible amount of turf in the outfield. He's a slasher, can really put the ball (in the gaps). If you make a mistake, he can go really deep to right center."

This time, it was a 420-foot shot off Red Sox starter John Lackey, who must be tiring of Crawford's relentless presence by now. Crawford is a .467 (21-for-45) hitter off Lackey, the best of any opponent with at least 25 at-bats.

"Talk about the total package," Johnson said. "With his speed, power and defense, you just don't see that. You can't replace that. You can't duplicate that."

Crawford came into the night as the first player since Ty Cobb to reach 100 triples and 400 stolen bases before his 1,200th major-league game.

Now he's the eighth player since 1900 to compile 100 homers, 100 triples and 400 steals in a career (joining Cobb, Tris Speaker, Lou Brock, Frankie Frisch, Kenny Lofton, Paul Molitor and Tim Raines).

"He deserves every bit of the moment," Rays starter James Shields said. "I hope he enjoyed it."

"You get in elite company like that, it makes you proud," Crawford said. "It makes you want to see how far you can go."

This is the 28 year old player that hits FA status this offseason that I think the Astros would be stupid to say to themselves "Naaaahhhh... not a fit for our needs!"
« Last Edit: August 31, 2010, 01:11:35 pm by Noe in Austin »

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #92 on: August 31, 2010, 01:15:50 pm »
The only thing that worries me about Crawford on this Astros team that lacks power is that he lacks power.

Where he hits in the lineup will dictate what he brings to the team.  Moises Alou came to a team that had Derek Bell, Carl Everett, Richard Hidalgo, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio.  All guys (other than Hidalgo and Everett) who had good seasons behind them and were ready to win.  Alou did not come to provide power, he came to provide run production, hitting fifth in the lineup.  Because Biggio was great at getting on base and so was Bagwell, Alou got plenty of opportunities to produce a great season in 1998.  The chants of MVP! MVP! were echoing throughout the Dome that season (I know, I led some of those chants).  That season, if I recall, Houston had the first five guys in the lineup who were going to produce 100 runs scored and 100 runs driven in.  Unbelievable run production from that team.

Alou?  Power?

Not really, but great run production from the five hole.  So how you use Crawford will dictate if you need a strict power game from him.  Run production?  I have no doubt he can do that.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2010, 01:17:59 pm by Noe in Austin »

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #93 on: August 31, 2010, 01:19:57 pm »
What?  Short terms wins?  Is that what everyone thinks I'm saying?  If so, I truly suck at communicating.

No, I agree you didn't say that.  I'm just trying to bring together in my mind what seems like contridictory paths.  Sacrifice draft picks to bring in a guy who they'll likely need to convince that they're very close to competing for a WS (thus my "short term wins").  If they do sell him on that, and are true to their word, that seems to signal a quick end to this fun round of farm rebuilding we've seen the last several years, as more big FAs will probably be needed to fill the gaps that still exist, or will with inevitable softmore slumps, injury, etc.  This is still not a very deep Astros team or farm system, right?

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A lot quicker if Carl Crawford were to come here.  All I'm saying is the opportunity is at hand.  The pitching in Houston has given rise to renewed hope that this team is going to be alright.  The defense up the middle is there.  The corners must produce the runs (and power) and there is a chance and if you get Crawford, all the better.

...  Is it five years away for Houston to make it back to NL Central contender?  Not if the pitching is for real and if the investment in all those kids like Lyles will be coming home to roost soon.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #94 on: August 31, 2010, 01:20:58 pm »
are you really going to value his play over the potential of another big draft?

You draft a player hoping, against high odds, that he turns into a player like Crawford.  A draft pick is worth significantly less than the value of Carl Crawford's play.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #95 on: August 31, 2010, 01:23:01 pm »
No, I agree you didn't say that.  I'm just trying to bring together in my mind what seems like contridictory paths.  Sacrifice draft picks to bring in a guy who they'll likely need to convince that they're very close to competing for a WS (thus my "short term wins").  If they do sell him on that, and are true to their word, that seems to signal a quick end to this fun round of farm rebuilding we've seen the last several years, as more big FAs will probably be needed to fill the gaps that still exist, or will with inevitable softmore slumps, injury, etc.  This is still not a very deep Astros team or farm system, right?


Also, in order to convince Carl Crawford, you must first convince Drayton McLane.  Are we really ready to be Champions today?

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #96 on: August 31, 2010, 01:25:24 pm »
This is still not a very deep Astros team or farm system, right?

Actually, the opposite it true.  Houston has been stockpiling arms for the minors for three years now and if Bobby Heck didn't do his job right, then saying it's a weak farm system is an indictment on Heck's work.  Lyles and others represent the work put in to draft these kids and then to develop them.  The general feeling was that these arms would take about three years of more to make a difference.  So now you have the kids getting into AA soon, the place where you really see the fruit of your investment.  In the meantime, you have Myers, Wandy, Haap and Norris.

Think of it this way, you had Shane Reynolds, Daryle Kile, Mike Hampton and Jose Lima before you had Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #97 on: August 31, 2010, 01:27:07 pm »
You draft a player hoping, against high odds, that he turns into a player like Crawford.  A draft pick is worth significantly less than the value of Carl Crawford's play.

Concur, add to that that this is a 28 year old Carl Crawford, not a 35 year old Miguel Tejada.  Big difference and how it should be looked at.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #98 on: August 31, 2010, 01:47:47 pm »
Concur, add to that that this is a 28 year old Carl Crawford, not a 35 year old Miguel Tejada.  Big difference and how it should be looked at.

At what price and/or contract length do you think the Astros should stop pursuing?  6 yrs / $110M.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #99 on: August 31, 2010, 01:55:52 pm »
Also, in order to convince Carl Crawford, you must first convince Drayton McLane.  Are we really ready to be Champions today?

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #100 on: August 31, 2010, 01:58:31 pm »
Actually, the opposite it true.  Houston has been stockpiling arms for the minors for three years now and if Bobby Heck didn't do his job right, then saying it's a weak farm system is an indictment on Heck's work.  Lyles and others represent the work put in to draft these kids and then to develop them.  The general feeling was that these arms would take about three years of more to make a difference.  So now you have the kids getting into AA soon, the place where you really see the fruit of your investment.  In the meantime, you have Myers, Wandy, Haap and Norris.

Think of it this way, you had Shane Reynolds, Daryle Kile, Mike Hampton and Jose Lima before you had Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller.

The system isn't very deep, especially at high levels.  If any of the starters in the proposed rotation went down, there is little on the horizon in A+, AA or AAA.  In other words, the current Astros farm system is far thinner than when they pursued free agents in the early to mid aughts.

No indictment of Heck at all.  This takes time.  

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #101 on: August 31, 2010, 02:15:26 pm »
The system isn't very deep, especially at high levels.  If any of the starters in the proposed rotation went down, there is little on the horizon in A+, AA or AAA.  In other words, the current Astros farm system is far thinner than when they pursued free agents in the early to mid aughts.

No indictment of Heck at all.  This takes time.  

You don't go out and sign a top of the line FA starter though because you want to make, Norris, for example, your AAA insurance.  That makes less sense than waiting on the kids to mature.  If you want AAA depth, you get a starter who is trying to make a comeback, or in the last few years of his career, or like Brett Myers, a find.  Ed Wade has been able to swing deals for Randy Wolf (when everyone thought he was crazy), claim Nelson Figueroa off the scrap heap, trade for a little regarded LaTroy Hawkins.

If insurance is what is worrying the Astros, there are plenty of ways to mitigate that.  In fact, it isn't even a trademark of Ed Wade's per se... when the Hun was here, he did the same thing, picking up reclamation projects and keeping them around as insurance.  Guys like Sid Fernandez and Pete Schourek were the type of guys the Hun would employ.  No difference now.  But what you definitely need is to know who your starting staff is and that has been somewhat of a work in progress for Houston for many years.  Oswalt and Wandy seemed to be the only two survivors of those years.  Now you have Myers, Haap, Norris and Wandy and name your fifth starter.

Now you're in a position of strength, not weakness to then build around them, including the insurance you need.  Heck, the St. Louis Cardinals do it year in and year out, they pick up guys that are rejects like Pinero and Lohse and make solid starters out of them.  There is really no reason other than you just don't have pitching or your one ACE away from contender to go out and take a gamble on a top flight starter from the FA pool that may or may not work out.

I'd rather be set with those solid four, pick up insurance where I can and then wait for the young arms to mature, like Lyles.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #102 on: August 31, 2010, 02:18:16 pm »
At what price and/or contract length do you think the Astros should stop pursuing?  6 yrs / $110M.

Ask the Astros, not me. In fact, ask Pam, she'll tell you.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #103 on: August 31, 2010, 02:20:53 pm »
Where he hits in the lineup will dictate what he brings to the team.  Moises Alou came to a team that had Derek Bell, Carl Everett, Richard Hidalgo, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio.  All guys (other than Hidalgo and Everett) who had good seasons behind them and were ready to win.  Alou did not come to provide power, he came to provide run production, hitting fifth in the lineup.  Because Biggio was great at getting on base and so was Bagwell, Alou got plenty of opportunities to produce a great season in 1998.  The chants of MVP! MVP! were echoing throughout the Dome that season (I know, I led some of those chants).  That season, if I recall, Houston had the first five guys in the lineup who were going to produce 100 runs scored and 100 runs driven in.  Unbelievable run production from that team.

Alou?  Power?

Not really, but great run production from the five hole.  So how you use Crawford will dictate if you need a strict power game from him.  Run production?  I have no doubt he can do that.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #104 on: August 31, 2010, 02:24:13 pm »
38 homers at the end of August.

I stand corrected.  I remember Alou more for his approach to hitting, rarely rolling over a pitch, instead hitting it where it was pitched and driving in runs at a furious pace.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #105 on: August 31, 2010, 02:27:25 pm »
Ask the Astros, not me. In fact, ask Pam, she'll tell you.

You're saying the Astros should sign the guy. What are the numbers that you think the Astros should spend to get him?  Should the Astros take on another 6-year, $100 million contract to make it happen?

And to be clear, I'd love to see Crawford playing for the Astros.  That said, he's a luxury signing rather than a need signing, and at this point the additional costs (money, development, lost opportunities) outweigh the additional value IMO.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #106 on: August 31, 2010, 02:29:32 pm »
I stand corrected.  I remember Alou more for his approach to hitting, rarely rolling over a pitch, instead hitting it where it was pitched and driving in runs at a furious pace.

He had two big homerun years:  38 in '98 and 39 in '04.  He also hit 30 in '99 and 27 in '00. 
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #107 on: August 31, 2010, 02:35:22 pm »
I'm interested though, want to amplify on this:

"there are other players potentially available in '11 (and '12) who are better than Crawford and/or who would fill positions more in question than the Astros corner outfield slots for '11 or '12."

Cliff Lee or Jose Bautista fall in the better than category, and players like Jose Reyes or Dan Uggla would be examples of players that fill positions more in question than the Astros corner outfield slots for '11 and '12.  There is an assclown in StL that plays 1B and would fit into the 'unrealistic pipe dreams' category as well.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #108 on: August 31, 2010, 02:48:32 pm »
Cliff Lee or Jose Bautista fall in the better than category, and players like Jose Reyes or Dan Uggla would be examples of players that fill positions more in question than the Astros corner outfield slots for '11 and '12.  There is an assclown in StL that plays 1B and would fit into the 'unrealistic pipe dreams' category as well.
I'd much rather see the Astros get a 28-year-old Carl Crawford than any of those guys (and I strongly agree with Noe about staying away from mega-$$ pitchers), but, I agree with you in principle, that for where the Astros are right now it probably is not a good fit.

I also agree with Ty and Jim, I really can't see Crawford giving this team much consideration; surely he'll go for a team that has proven it is a perennial contender. I'd love to see him stay with the Rays.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #109 on: August 31, 2010, 03:02:42 pm »
I'd much rather see the Astros get a 28-year-old Carl Crawford

Gonna need a time machine, he turned 29 this month.

It is speculated that his next contract will carry him to at least age 36 35 and should exceed $100M.

Edit:  bad math.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2010, 03:07:14 pm by AtascAstro »

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #110 on: August 31, 2010, 03:06:45 pm »
Gonna need a time machine, he turned 29 this month.

When this train full of oranges hits 88 mph, you're going to see some serious shit.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #111 on: August 31, 2010, 03:08:11 pm »
Gonna need a time machine, he turned 29 this month.

It is speculated that his next contract will carry him to at least age 36 and should exceed $100M.


At the risk of sounding like a scratched tobacconist, that's way too long a contract for a player of his age.  He can be expected to start breaking down / dropping off half way through a deal like that.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #112 on: August 31, 2010, 03:08:21 pm »
I really can't see Crawford giving this team much consideration; surely he'll go for a team that has proven it is a perennial contender. I'd love to see him stay with the Rays.

I think it was during the sunday night game where he did say that the Rays were his first choice.  Sounded like he wanted to stay put if they would pay him, but I suppose with their attendence woes and lots of young stars soon in the same position, the Rays may not be able to pay him.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #113 on: August 31, 2010, 03:21:54 pm »

At the risk of sounding like a scratched tobacconist, that's way too long a contract for a player of his age.  He can be expected to start breaking down / dropping off half way through a deal like that.

The problem is that in order to get him to play for you the first half of the deal, you have to pay him throughout the second half as well.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #114 on: August 31, 2010, 03:26:30 pm »
Most recent article that I could find speculating on his contract to be.  This seems to be the high-end ($16 M/yr) with the low-end being around $13M/yr.  All of them assume a 6-8 year term with the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Braves, Nationals, and Rangers referenced as suitors.

Quote from: Mark Saxon, ESPN LA
With the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves all rumored to be circling in the water, waiting for Crawford to fall in, many people expect him to make well more than $100 million spread over six or seven years. He just turned 29, so that seems to be a reasonable estimate.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #115 on: August 31, 2010, 03:31:52 pm »
The problem is that in order to get him to play for you the first half of the deal, you have to pay him throughout the second half as well.

Understood.  I just wonder how long it will be before teams realise that half the cash on these contracts is dead money.

Who am I kidding.  They'll keep doing it, while pleading poverty and charging me $20 for a Shiner and a hot dog.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #116 on: August 31, 2010, 03:36:16 pm »
Understood.  I just wonder how long it will be before teams realise that half the cash on these contracts is dead money.

I'm sure they already do, but as long as there's such a thing as a guaranteed contract, you're going to have to shell out on the back end to attract a man in the front end.   That sentence went horribly wrong, but you get what I mean.

Who am I kidding.  They'll keep doing it, while pleading poverty and charging me $20 for a Shiner and a hot dog.

What's with the hot dog?
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #117 on: August 31, 2010, 03:46:27 pm »
When this train full of oranges hits 88 mph, you're going to see some serious shit.

You built a time machine out of....a train full of oranges?

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #118 on: August 31, 2010, 03:52:13 pm »
You built a time machine out of....a train full of oranges?

The way I see it, if you're gonna build a time machine, why not do it with no connection to your franchise whatsoever?
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #119 on: August 31, 2010, 04:15:57 pm »
You're saying the Astros should sign the guy. What are the numbers that you think the Astros should spend to get him?

For baseball reasons.  Business reasons are Pam's forte.

Quote
Should the Astros take on another 6-year, $100 million contract to make it happen?

Again, baseball reasons is what I've been talking about.  Want to talk more about that or play this game of "let's pretend I know how to spend Drayton's money better than he does.... just like everyone else in the interwebs!".

Quote
And to be clear, I'd love to see Crawford playing for the Astros.

Let's be doubly clear, I'd love to see the Astros care about adding Carl Crawford to the team because it makes sense.  Whether they do it or not is not really the issue.  It's whether they think it's a right move.

Quote
That said, he's a luxury signing rather than a need signing, and at this point the additional costs (money, development, lost opportunities) outweigh the additional value IMO.

Luxury signing?  WOW!

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #120 on: August 31, 2010, 04:18:12 pm »
Cliff Lee or Jose Bautista fall in the better than category, and players like Jose Reyes or Dan Uggla would be examples of players that fill positions more in question than the Astros corner outfield slots for '11 and '12.  There is an assclown in StL that plays 1B and would fit into the 'unrealistic pipe dreams' category as well.

Other than Pujols, now you're talking about guys similar to what MM mentioned.  You know, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Bay types.  Carl Crawford is much different than those position players you're throwing out there.  "No thanks on getting a premiere player, I need a second baseman!"  Is this what you say the Astros baseball people think like?  Hmmm.... I dunno about that.

Noe

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #121 on: August 31, 2010, 04:20:29 pm »
I'd much rather see the Astros get a 28-year-old Carl Crawford than any of those guys (and I strongly agree with Noe about staying away from mega-$$ pitchers), but, I agree with you in principle, that for where the Astros are right now it probably is not a good fit.

I also agree with Ty and Jim, I really can't see Crawford giving this team much consideration; surely he'll go for a team that has proven it is a perennial contender. I'd love to see him stay with the Rays.

So let me ask you, if you sign a Carl Crawford and now have the ability to trade Hunter Pence because he's expendable and you can bring back a quality arm, that is not worth exploring?  Instead it is much more prudent to sign a top line FA pitcher, keep Hunter Pence (and Carlos Lee in left) and then sign an expensive Dan Uggla in '11 or '12?

Seriously?

Andyzipp

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #122 on: August 31, 2010, 04:25:26 pm »
Noé...step away from the Crawford.  For your own safety.

You're scaring the children.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #123 on: August 31, 2010, 04:40:34 pm »
So let me ask you, if you sign a Carl Crawford and now have the ability to trade Hunter Pence because he's expendable and you can bring back a quality arm, that is not worth exploring?  Instead it is much more prudent to sign a top line FA pitcher, keep Hunter Pence (and Carlos Lee in left) and then sign an expensive Dan Uggla in '11 or '12?

Seriously?
You're confusing me with OSF or someone else. I said I agree with YOU that signing a mega-bucks FA pitcher would be too risky. I also am not pining for Dan Uggla.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #124 on: August 31, 2010, 04:44:53 pm »
Cliff Lee or Jose Bautista fall in the better than category, and players like Jose Reyes or Dan Uggla would be examples of players that fill positions more in question than the Astros corner outfield slots for '11 and '12.  There is an assclown in StL that plays 1B and would fit into the 'unrealistic pipe dreams' category as well.

Jose Bautista is a bigger bust risk than any player I mentioned.  I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole.
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #125 on: August 31, 2010, 05:02:14 pm »
For baseball reasons.  Business reasons are Pam's forte.

Noe, you aren't playing fair here.  You introduced the topic using marketability and ROI to justify pursuing Crawford, but dismiss other economic considerations when they contradict your conclusion.  If economics didn't matter, then we could argue over an all-star team that likely wouldn't include a single current Astro.  

Crawford would consume 15%-20% of the team's total payroll for the next 6-8 years.  That is too big of a commitment to simply dismiss as "Pam's forte".

Noe

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #126 on: August 31, 2010, 07:28:33 pm »
Noé...step away from the Crawford.  For your own safety.

You're scaring the children.

Methinks you're correct.  I officially retract my opinion for the sake of the greater good.  Now back to your regularly schedule SnS topics already in progress.

Noe

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #127 on: August 31, 2010, 07:31:48 pm »
Noe, you aren't playing fair here.  You introduced the topic using marketability and ROI to justify pursuing Crawford, but dismiss other economic considerations when they contradict your conclusion.  If economics didn't matter, then we could argue over an all-star team that likely wouldn't include a single current Astro.  

Crawford would consume 15%-20% of the team's total payroll for the next 6-8 years.  That is too big of a commitment to simply dismiss as "Pam's forte".

Actually, I'm out of the conversation, I don't make sense no more... but just in case, I mentioned marketability and ROI just in case someone lobbed the "Uncle" Drayton hand grenade at me.  I was trying to be proactive, but by no means am I interested in pursuing the line of thought of running the Astros business organization.  Me not smart enough to do Pam's job.... seriously.  I was only trying to lay out a scenario where Pam may say "Hey, there is a way to do this Mr. Drayton" sort of thing.

But by any measure, I'm officially retiring my opinion.  It isn't clear enough to make sense any more.

Noe

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #128 on: August 31, 2010, 07:32:46 pm »
You're confusing me with OSF or someone else. I said I agree with YOU that signing a mega-bucks FA pitcher would be too risky. I also am not pining for Dan Uggla.

You're just an innocent bystander caught by the friendly (and high emphasis on friendly) fire.  My bad.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #129 on: September 01, 2010, 11:15:24 am »
Aye, there's the rub.
What dreams may come?
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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #130 on: September 01, 2010, 01:54:28 pm »
"If you can't figure out that Astros doesn't have an apostrophe, you shouldn't be able to comment." - Ron Brand, June 9, 2010

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #131 on: September 01, 2010, 01:59:21 pm »
Gonna need a time machine, he turned 29 this month.

It is speculated that his next contract will carry him to at least age 36 35 and should exceed $100M.

Edit:  bad math.

No thanks.  We are 2-3 years from really competing.  In this era of steroid testing, you don't get as much value from players on the back side of 30.

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Re: A guy can dream, can't he?
« Reply #132 on: September 02, 2010, 11:28:18 am »
Grab another Coke and let's die