DraytonBall 2011

[Arky Vaughan]

Drayton's comments in his pregame interview about trying to "be a champion" in 2011 suggest what we may be headed for:

C Castro (24)
1B Wallace (24)
2B Keppinger (31)
3B Johnson (26)
SS Manzella (28)
LF Lee (35)
CF Bourn (28)
RF Pence (28)

SP Wandy (32)
SP Myers (30)
SP Happ (28)
SP Norris (26)
SP Paulino (27)

SU Lyon (31)
CL Lindstrom (31)

Even putting aside Lee, whom the Astros would gladly move if they possibly could, that team is hardly younger than 2010, and a majority of those players are moving into the expensive years of their careers. Even with Oswalt and Berkman coming off the payroll, and even if the Astros could somehow unload Lee's salary, the raises owed to all those arbitration-eligible players could easily eat up the savings.

Maybe the Astros will continue to move some of those players who have value, but if McLane plans to reload by sticking a couple of young guys among a group in its late 20s and early 30s, then it would have been better to watch the two franchise players keep playing here rather than shipping them out for a piecemeal rebuilding. Only time will tell if McLane grasps this, but his comments so far, his insistence on obtaining major-league talent in the Oswalt deal and reports that the Astros deem Myers "untouchable" indicate he does not.

[Navin R Johnson]

"This  is NOT rebuilding, it is adjusting the team"

http://tinyurl.com/2fxkhwk

That audio clip sounds best if you have this image up while listening.

http://www.blowbacknet.com/images/Lies/24-minister.jpg

[Matt]

Damn it.

[dirty steve]

adjusting?  i hope drayton knows that alot of the astros fanbase is fine with stripping alot of the old paint off.  even a replacement for lee in LF (bogusevic?) would be 26 or 27.

i forgot that wandy is going to be 32 next year.  not sure what the hesitancy to see what you can get for him is.

[moriartp]

i forgot that wandy is going to be 32 next year.  not sure what the hesitancy to see what you can get for him is.

Rough start to the season, under control next year, value should be higher in offseason or at next year's deadline, still need somebody to eat innings.

[accougars]

I would be surprised if Myers accepts 8 million for one season after the year he has had. He could easilty get a multi-year deal for that amount. Especsially, if he is just a type B free agent.

[CarolinaStro]

rumorville has Myers on the block now...of course, I doubt he was ever off the block...hopefully Mr Wade can take advantage of someone at the deadline

[CarolinaStro]

You figure that Wandy's trade value is too low in the team's view and nobody wants to trade for Lyon's contract.  Wandy will hopefully be better bait new year.  Surprised Lindstrom isn't getting more talk this deadline.

[jbm]

I'm not sure why so much criticism. He realizes the Astros are in transition, but stills wants a team that could be mildly competitive. I appreciate that.

The idea that he has to trade Wandy, Pence, Bourn, Myers etc. for younger guys is misguided. There is no guarantee that you get shit for those guys. The club in 2013 will be not be drastically changed by what you could get for those guys.  You might as well be watchable in the meantime imo.

[Lurch]

He's sure as fuck not going to say that 2011 is a throwaway year, even when he knows full well it is.  Actions, words, something something

[AtascAstro]

I believe it was Noe in another thread who astutely pointed out Wade's timing.  Myers was listed as unavailable until he suddenly became the best pitcher on the market.  Now we hear that they are listening to offers for both Myers and Rodriguez.

Ed Wade knows exactly what he is doing and he's doing it well.

[Bench]

Drayton's comments in his pregame interview about trying to "be a champion" in 2011 suggest what we may be headed for:

C Castro (24)
1B Wallace (24)
2B Keppinger (31)
3B Johnson (26)
SS Manzella (28)
LF Lee (35)
CF Bourn (28)
RF Pence (28)

SP Wandy (32)
SP Myers (30)
SP Happ (28)
SP Norris (26)
SP Paulino (27)

SU Lyon (31)
CL Lindstrom (31)

That is the age distribution of a CHAMPION!

[Arky Vaughan]

I'm not sure why so much criticism. He realizes the Astros are in transition, but stills wants a team that could be mildly competitive. I appreciate that.

The idea that he has to trade Wandy, Pence, Bourn, Myers etc. for younger guys is misguided. There is no guarantee that you get shit for those guys. The club in 2013 will be not be drastically changed by what you could get for those guys.  You might as well be watchable in the meantime imo.

What's the point of being "mildly competitive?" Either you're trying to win it all now, or you're taking steps to put yourself in a position to win it all later. In-between is a formula for being never quite as bad as the Pirates and never quite good enough to make the playoffs. It's also bound to drive away your fanbase over time by becoming an irrelevant mediocrity.

[Arky Vaughan]

I believe it was Noe in another thread who astutely pointed out Wade's timing.  Myers was listed as unavailable until he suddenly became the best pitcher on the market.  Now we hear that they are listening to offers for both Myers and Rodriguez.

Ed Wade knows exactly what he is doing and he's doing it well.

Let's hope so. I haven't heard "untouchable" out of the mouths of Drayton or Wade, so for now it's just rumors.

[Arky Vaughan]

He's sure as fuck not going to say that 2011 is a throwaway year, even when he knows full well it is.  Actions, words, something something

He doesn't have to say it's a throwaway year. He could say they want to field the best product they can to be a champion, and sometimes that doesn't happen as quickly as he'd like. Just point out that everything they're doing now is geared toward winning the World Series in the future.

Also, as for actions and words, re-read my post. Action: insisting on a major-leaguer for Oswalt. Action: holding onto Myers.

[JaneDoe]

"This  is NOT rebuilding, it is adjusting the team"

The word I heard him use during the radio pregame show yesterday was "refresh".  Drayton said that at times you had to "refresh" the team with some young talent as your players got old.

It is a start at least....

[JaneDoe]

What's the point of being "mildly competitive?" Either you're trying to win it all now, or you're taking steps to put yourself in a position to win it all later. In-between is a formula for being never quite as bad as the Pirates and never quite good enough to make the playoffs. It's also bound to drive away your fanbase over time by becoming an irrelevant mediocrity.

Drayton wants to save face at all costs.  IMO, he is less worried about the makeup of the team, but how the fans perceive him and his effort to try to put a "champion" on the field.

[Mr. Happy]

Drayton wants to save face at all costs.  IMO, he is less worried about the makeup of the team, but how the fans perceive him and his effort to try to put a "champion" on the field.

This. This right here.

[Arky Vaughan]

Drayton wants to save face at all costs.  IMO, he is less worried about the makeup of the team, but how the fans perceive him and his effort to try to put a "champion" on the field.

You nailed it, Jane.

[MikeyBoy]

I'm hoping through all of this rebuilding/refreshing that Drayton seize's the opportunity to energize the fanbase with new threads. C'mon, blue and orange!

[Arky Vaughan]

Astros listening to offers for Myers, Wandy

[JaneDoe]

I'm hoping through all of this rebuilding/refreshing that Drayton seize's the opportunity to energize the fanbase with new threads. C'mon, blue and orange!

Are you kidding me?  No way he would.  He would hire Clinton and Stacy and we'd end up with some metrosexual shit.

[MikeyBoy]

Are you kidding me?  No way he would.  He would hire Clinton and Stacy and we'd end up with some metrosexual shit.

Affliction shirts and dog tags?

[JaneDoe]

Affliction shirts and dog tags?

Change in color scheme was mentioned---I was thinking Princess Pink, Lovely Lavender and Butter Yellow!


Edited for clarity: I meant that Clinton and Stacy would choose those colors, NOT ME.  I'd love to see them bring back the old shooting stars unis for good.

[jwhudson]

That's an image, I will not forget for awhile.  What's wrong with Red, Gold and Black?  I like red hats.

[accougars]

You figure that Wandy's trade value is too low in the team's view and nobody wants to trade for Lyon's contract.  Wandy will hopefully be better bait new year.  Surprised Lindstrom isn't getting more talk this deadline.

I agree and think that Wandy's value has been and can be higher, and would like to see them hold onto him for the near future. Assuming you would get a deal similar to the Edwin Jackson deal, would you hold onto Wandy if you knew that you could avoid arbitration and sign him to a three year 21 million dollar deal?

On Lindstrom, it seems to me that relievers in general have not been moved that much this deadline season. Capps was moved, but I can't think of anyone else off the top of my head.

[Arky Vaughan]

I agree and think that Wandy's value has been and can be higher, and would like to see them hold onto him for the near future. Assuming you would get a deal similar to the Edwin Jackson deal, would you hold onto Wandy if you knew that you could avoid arbitration and sign him to a three year 21 million dollar deal?

On Lindstrom, it seems to me that relievers in general have not been moved that much this deadline season. Capps was moved, but I can't think of anyone else off the top of my head.

It's too big a risk to sign him to a deal like that, and it makes him harder to move later. But I agree that he might have more trade value if they hold onto him and he keeps pitching the way he does and finishes the season strong.

[accougars]

I'm not sure why so much criticism. He realizes the Astros are in transition, but stills wants a team that could be mildly competitive. I appreciate that.

The idea that he has to trade Wandy, Pence, Bourn, Myers etc. for younger guys is misguided. There is no guarantee that you get shit for those guys. The club in 2013 will be not be drastically changed by what you could get for those guys.  You might as well be watchable in the meantime imo.

For me, I would want to keep the team somewhat competitive for a few reasons.

1) You want to avoid a culture of losing. That culture has taken hold in Pitt. It can be tough to break out of that. It makes it diffiuclt to retain your own players because they see other oportunities as better. It can be tough to add the right free agent for the same reasons. As I think about it, it seems as if the Pirates have overpaid on almost every extension or free agent contract they wanted to give out. If they didn't overpay, they were the last choice for a guy like Octavio Dotel to pitch as a closer because everyone else wanted him as a setup man. You don't want to get into that siduations.



2) Financially, it is much easier to retain individual and corporate season ticket holders if the team is competitive. It is also easier to retain a customer than to replace one. In order to have a good team soon you are going to need a spend some money. In order to spend money you have to have revenue. In order to have revenue you have to have  a product that someone is willing to purchase. In a couple years, when this franchise is really ready to compete again, it would be nice if the revenue streams that were in place when this team had a 100 million dollar pay roll had not dried up. Now, I wouldn't want them to sacrafice the future of the club if it meands winning 72 games as apposed to 68 in 2011, but if you can ad a quality veteran to the mix that can hel; you be competitive and then move him in the middle of 2011, than you would have to consider a few moves like that.

[Alkie]

1) You want to avoid a culture of losing.
2) Financially, it is much easier to retain individual and corporate season ticket holders if the team is competitive. It is also easier to retain a customer than to replace one.

HEY.  Who moved my cheese?

[Lurch]

He doesn't have to say it's a throwaway year. He could say they want to field the best product they can to be a champion, and sometimes that doesn't happen as quickly as he'd like. Just point out that everything they're doing now is geared toward winning the World Series in the future.

Also, as for actions and words, re-read my post. Action: insisting on a major-leaguer for Oswalt. Action: holding onto Myers.

Do you know he insisted on a major leaguer any more than you knew he refused to trade Myers?

[BlownRanger]

I have absolutely no problem with the organization thinking that when they return to contention, it might very well be with Myers, and even Wandy, still in Houston.  Even when you're rebuilding, there's nothing wrong with recognizing some of the talent you already have, as opposed to completely depending on prospects, most of whom become suspects, regardless of what organization trades for them.

[JaneDoe]

Drayton's comments in his pregame interview about trying to "be a champion" in 2011 suggest what we may be headed for:

C Castro (24)
1B Wallace (24)
2B Keppinger (31)
3B Johnson (26)
SS Manzella (28)
LF Lee (35)
CF Bourn (28)
RF Pence (28)

SP Wandy (32)
SP Myers (30)
SP Happ (28)
SP Norris (26)
SP Paulino (27)

SU Lyon (31)
CL Lindstrom (31)

Even putting aside Lee, whom the Astros would gladly move if they possibly could, that team is hardly younger than 2010, and a majority of those players are moving into the expensive years of their careers. Even with Oswalt and Berkman coming off the payroll, and even if the Astros could somehow unload Lee's salary, the raises owed to all those arbitration-eligible players could easily eat up the savings.

Maybe the Astros will continue to move some of those players who have value, but if McLane plans to reload by sticking a couple of young guys among a group in its late 20s and early 30s, then it would have been better to watch the two franchise players keep playing here rather than shipping them out for a piecemeal rebuilding. Only time will tell if McLane grasps this, but his comments so far, his insistence on obtaining major-league talent in the Oswalt deal and reports that the Astros deem Myers "untouchable" indicate he does not.

Hardly younger than 2010?

Been thinking about this and there are several positions where a major age difference will occur:

1B Wallace (24)  from Berkman (34) or Blum (37)

2B Keppinger (30)  from Matsui (34) (I know Kepp was this year, but work with me here)

3B Johnson (25) from Feliz (35)

C Castro(24) from Quintero (30) Cash (32) and Towles (26)



That makes the projected infield significantly younger than this year's.

Plus: SP Happ (28)  from Oswalt (32)

[Reuben]

Hardly younger than 2010?

Been thinking about this and there are several positions where a major age difference will occur:

1B Wallace (24)  from Berkman (34) or Blum (37)

2B Keppinger (30)  from Matsui (34) (I know Kepp was this year, but work with me here)

3B Johnson (25) from Feliz (35)

C Castro(24) from Quintero (30) Cash (32) and Towles (26)



That makes the projected infield significantly younger than this year's.

Plus: SP Happ (28)  from Oswalt (32)

Plus, I might argue that it's not so much about putting as young a player as possible at every position, right away. For one thing, most player development people probably feel there's a major advantage to keeping some vets around to help the young guys learn how to be major leaguers. And secondly, its a question of whether the Astros have any players at certain positions, like 2B or SP, who are ready to be in the majors. If they do, then by all means they shouldn't block their paths with league-average veterans, but I'm not so sure that's the case.

How young the team looks in 2012 and 13 will be a lot more important than how young it looks to start 2011. What's brewing in the minors is still going to matter more until then, in my opinion.

[JaneDoe]

I don't really care what your age is if you can play.  Younger doesn't always mean better.

I just went looking at ages and saw that the infield would have what I would consider to be a definite age shift. Will it be better?  Who knows?

[Mr. Happy]

I don't really care what your age is if you can play.  Younger doesn't always mean better.

I just went looking at ages and saw that the infield would have what I would consider to be a definite age shift. Will it be better?  Who knows?

Correct. They wouldn't be "refreshing" if the older players had performed well, but they didn't. Check the standings.

[Gizzmonic]

I'm hoping through all of this rebuilding/refreshing that Drayton seize's the opportunity to energize the fanbase with new threads. C'mon, blue and orange!

We can only hope.

[Arky Vaughan]

It's not a matter of getting younger for its own sake or that younger players are better than older players. If the Astros want to build for the future, then that doesn't mean replacing players in their 30s with players in their late 20s. It means replacing them with players in their early 20s and allowing those players to develop over the next few years to see who can play and who can't play and to see who can play together.

[Arky Vaughan]

How young the team looks in 2012 and 13 will be a lot more important than how young it looks to start 2011. What's brewing in the minors is still going to matter more until then, in my opinion.

Right. Which is why signing Brett Myers to a multi-year deal makes zero sense.

[Arky Vaughan]

Do you know he insisted on a major leaguer any more than you knew he refused to trade Myers?

I read this on Astros.com:

"The market for Oswalt was diminished by the Astros' insistence they receive at least one Major League player in the deal, and Wade said the action began to heat up after Cliff Lee was traded to the Texas Rangers from the Seattle Mariners a few weeks ago."

[Arky Vaughan]

For me, I would want to keep the team somewhat competitive for a few reasons.

1) You want to avoid a culture of losing. That culture has taken hold in Pitt. It can be tough to break out of that. It makes it diffiuclt to retain your own players because they see other oportunities as better. It can be tough to add the right free agent for the same reasons. As I think about it, it seems as if the Pirates have overpaid on almost every extension or free agent contract they wanted to give out. If they didn't overpay, they were the last choice for a guy like Octavio Dotel to pitch as a closer because everyone else wanted him as a setup man. You don't want to get into that siduations.



2) Financially, it is much easier to retain individual and corporate season ticket holders if the team is competitive. It is also easier to retain a customer than to replace one. In order to have a good team soon you are going to need a spend some money. In order to spend money you have to have revenue. In order to have revenue you have to have  a product that someone is willing to purchase. In a couple years, when this franchise is really ready to compete again, it would be nice if the revenue streams that were in place when this team had a 100 million dollar pay roll had not dried up. Now, I wouldn't want them to sacrafice the future of the club if it meands winning 72 games as apposed to 68 in 2011, but if you can ad a quality veteran to the mix that can hel; you be competitive and then move him in the middle of 2011, than you would have to consider a few moves like that.

It seems better long-term for the culture of winning and selling season tickets to do everything possible right now to build the most competitive team the team can field in a couple of years rather than trying to have your cake and eat it too by competing for a .500 record in 2011 or 2012.

[Rebel Jew]

Right. Which is why signing Brett Myers to a multi-year deal makes zero sense.

yeah, signing an in-prime, proven veteran who's going to be solid for the next 5 years makes zero sense.

[roadrunner]

I know it all seems like doom and gloom now, but look at what the Padres did this year.  I like the approach of getting younger but not completely sacraficing the big league team.  Maybe the rebuilding will happen quicker than we think.

[jbm]

You just assume, almost like it is a law or something, that trading current chips for unknown future chips is the obvious course and that anyone that doesn't embrace it must be fool.

A good example is Wandy. It wouldn't surprise me if other teams valued him as a 4-5 era pitcher and offered a whole bunch of nothing. Maybe it was a younger bunch of nothing, maybe there was something with a small chance of being something, but I seriously doubt it was high value prospects. So is Ed Wade supposed to say "this offer sucks, it is getting 60 cents on what I feel is a buck, but damn, it will make us younger, so I'll do it."

[Bench]

Right. Which is why signing Brett Myers to a multi-year deal makes zero sense.

You shouldn't be scared of new commitment just because the last one didn't work out.

[JackAstro]

It's not a matter of getting younger for its own sake or that younger players are better than older players. If the Astros want to build for the future, then that doesn't mean replacing players in their 30s with players in their late 20s. It means replacing them with players in their early 20s and allowing those players to develop over the next few years to see who can play and who can't play and to see who can play together.

This isn't Logan's Run. In 3 years, the team can be comprised of players from 26-35 and be just as competitive as anyone else. If the Astros want to build for the future, it actually doesn't mean either of the things you mention. It means identifying players that are available, within budget, and whom your baseball people project as being able to productively fill a need several years down the road.

If the club can get a player that they believe can still be on the roster producing at a high level in 4-5 years, should they avoid him if he's 27? Why? What if there isn't an available 22 year old who they like as much?

[JimR]

Right. Which is why signing Brett Myers to a multi-year deal makes zero sense.

it makes great sense, and i'm glad they did it.

[dirty steve]

the extension is essentially 3 years, 30 million.  i find that to be a fantastic bargain for a guy that should lead from the front, let wandy stay a #2 (or is myers the #2?) and let happ settle into the #3 role.  i see almost no downside.

[moriartp]

I was pulling for a trade under the assumption that Myers would walk at the end of the season, but keeping him around is a good move (despite my faith in Bobby Heck, two guaranteed years of Brett Myers is more valuable to the Astros than a compensation pick). The team will need someone to throw quality innings and win at least some ballgames for them. Who better than the only pitcher to have thrown 6+ innings in each of his starts this season?

[Mr. Happy]

Signing Myers makes as much sense as signing any pitcher to a multi-year deal. I like this signing. A lot.

[Ty in Tampa]

Great move. I'm a fan of a few veterans to lead the kids. And he's a fucking gamer.

[Ty in Tampa]

And...I also want to say that although I was one of the first to rip the Astros for signing him, by all indications, he seems like a good teammate and one hell of a battler. I will never condone what he was accused of doing but keeping it clean and doing his job to the best of his ability goes a long way in showing redemption. That's fine with me, FWIW.

[Arky Vaughan]

The Myers signing makes no sense not because Myers hasn't pitched well this season, not because he not might not pitch well over the course of his contract, not because he isn't a gamer or a great teammate and not because of his past questionable behavior. It makes no sense because a player like Myers moving into his 30s making what the Astros will be paying him is not where the Astros should be focusing their resources right now. It's another indication that the Astros want to reload, or refresh, rather than rebuild. It's a symptom of win now. For a team truly in a position to win now, Myers might be a good signing. But notwithstanding the acquisitions over the last few days, the Astros are still a couple of years away from having a realistic shot at making the playoffs and reaching the World Series. What's the point of committing an additional $21 million to a player moving from his 20s into his 30s over that span? Why not spend that money on signing draft picks and player development? Or why not save it until the youth movement has come to fruition to add players like Myers to complement the up-and-comers at that time?

[hostros7]

The Myers signing makes no sense not because Myers hasn't pitched well this season, not because he not might not pitch well over the course of his contract, not because he isn't a gamer or a great teammate and not because of his past questionable behavior. It makes no sense because a player like Myers moving into his 30s making what the Astros will be paying him is not where the Astros should be focusing their resources right now. It's another indication that the Astros want to reload, or refresh, rather than rebuild. It's a symptom of win now. For a team truly in a position to win now, Myers might be a good signing. But notwithstanding the acquisitions over the last few days, the Astros are still a couple of years away from having a realistic shot at making the playoffs and reaching the World Series. What's the point of committing an additional $21 million to a player moving from his 20s into his 30s over that span? Why not spend that money on signing draft picks and player development? Or why not save it until the youth movement has come to fruition to add players like Myers to complement the up-and-comers at that time?

Whatever, he's a gamer and has pitched very, very well.  The Astros should hold on to some strong pieces.  I'm actually pretty excited about Wandy, Happ, and Myers, and I would love to see Paulino or Norris get into the mix.  The "young" guys could develop, and this team could win some games.  I have no doubt that McLane/Wade would add a top line starter or a stud position player if they thought this team had a chance next year or the year after.  Look at the Padres this year.  Maybe I'm an optimist, but you don't have to have every guy at the major league level be not good to rebuild. 

[Arky Vaughan]

Whatever, he's a gamer and has pitched very, very well.  The Astros should hold on to some strong pieces.  I'm actually pretty excited about Wandy, Happ, and Myers, and I would love to see Paulino or Norris get into the mix.  The "young" guys could develop, and this team could win some games.  I have no doubt that McLane/Wade would add a top line starter or a stud position player if they thought this team had a chance next year or the year after.  Look at the Padres this year.  Maybe I'm an optimist, but you don't have to have every guy at the major league level be not good to rebuild. 

So are you saying this team is just a player or two away?

[Duder]

So are you saying this team is just a player or two away?

The Astros are 28-25 since June 1.  Not bad at all.

[Mr. Happy]

So are you saying this team is just a player or two away?

Actually, the starting pitching has been great lately. This team might only be a player or two away, depending upon how the youngsters work out.

[Jacksonian]

So are you saying this team is just a player or two away?

I think there are more if's than that but most of the if's regard the development of the younguns' on the big club.

If Castro, Johnson, Manzella, and Wallace do what the development folks believe they are capable of doing...

If Lee rebounds to be a force...

Or, if not, add a middle of the order hitter who can play either LF or RF and bench Lee...

Then add 1 top of the rotation starter, and yes they probably contend.

IF the Astros have enough prospects to make more than 1 big deal.

IF the right players are available to trade for.

The big if's are on the rebuilding side.

Next year:
Bourn CF
Keppinger 2B
Lee or trade LF
Wallace 1B
Pence RF
Johnson 3B
Castro C
Manzella SS

Myers
Wandy
Happ

Norris
Paulino
Wright
trade

Lindstrom
Lyon
etc

Lee, Castro, Johnson, Manzella, Wallace: if 2 or more of those if's don't come true then they probably don't do enough to win.  If only 1 then I think it's possible.

[hostros7]

So are you saying this team is just a player or two away?

I'm saying that I don't know and neither do you.  You don't need to field the worst 25 guys in the league to rebuild.  Houston is a big market, and we can afford a few players.  Everyone picked the Padres last before the season, and they are looking at the post season.  The astros don't have a dominant number two, but, with wandy, happ, and myers, they have a very solid 2-4.  They could win some games.

The Berkman trade to be a DH against only RH pitching makes it clear the dichotomy between the haves and the have nots in the MLB.  If the astros tap out on money and field a 60 win team around Myers and never do anything else, then I'll buy you a beer, but I'm saying he's a good player that can be a nice piece on a team.  Let's trust the management on this one.  

[Arky Vaughan]

The Astros are 28-25 since June 1.  Not bad at all.

Actually, the starting pitching has been great lately. This team might only be a player or two away, depending upon how the youngsters work out.

This is the kind of thinking that got the Astros to this point. They've been playing well lately, and it's been an exciting few weeks, particularly since Bagwell was hired, not that I'm attributing it to that, but that's roughly when the recent surge dates from.

But McLane has thought they were just one or two players away since 2006, particularly based on their comebacks in 2004 and 2005, and he consequently made decisions based on his view that the club was closer to returning to the playoffs than they actually were.

I hope I have to eat all my words above in 2011, but I think the trade buzz and the successful weekend are leading to some irrational exuberance here.

[JackAstro]

So are you saying this team is just a player or two away?

I don't think so, but Myer's not blocking anyone, and his salary is not going to otherwise be spent on player development – it's not a one or the other thing. What the harm in trying to win some games and have a stable anchor of the staff for the next 2-3 seasons? It's not coming at the expense of the future, so far as I can see.

[austro]

I don't think so, but Myer's not blocking anyone, and his salary is not going to otherwise be spent on player development – it's not a one or the other thing. What the harm in trying to win some games and have a stable anchor of the staff for the next 2-3 seasons? It's not coming at the expense of the future, so far as I can see.

And, if things go south, a reliable pitcher with a reasonable contract is a valuable trading chip at the next deadline.

[DVauthrin]

The Myers signing makes no sense not because Myers hasn't pitched well this season, not because he not might not pitch well over the course of his contract, not because he isn't a gamer or a great teammate and not because of his past questionable behavior. It makes no sense because a player like Myers moving into his 30s making what the Astros will be paying him is not where the Astros should be focusing their resources right now. It's another indication that the Astros want to reload, or refresh, rather than rebuild. It's a symptom of win now. For a team truly in a position to win now, Myers might be a good signing. But notwithstanding the acquisitions over the last few days, the Astros are still a couple of years away from having a realistic shot at making the playoffs and reaching the World Series. What's the point of committing an additional $21 million to a player moving from his 20s into his 30s over that span? Why not spend that money on signing draft picks and player development? Or why not save it until the youth movement has come to fruition to add players like Myers to complement the up-and-comers at that time?

The Astros aren't one or two players away.    However, having a team of all rookies/youngsters isn't a route I recommend taking.  Look at the Reds.   It wasn't until they dealt for Scott Rolen that they started getting a taste of winning last year.   Then they added Orlando Cabrera this year and they are having their best season in awhile.    

Conversely, look at Pittsburgh.   Their whole team for years has been nothing but prospects, and they haven't had a winning season since 1992.   Young players need some veterans around to show them the ropes, teach them how to work through slumps, etc.      Plus, it's a short term commitment.  

[Arky Vaughan]

And, if things go south, a reliable pitcher with a reasonable contract is a valuable trading chip at the next deadline.

Not easily at his price.

[BizidyDizidy]

Agonizing about how a billionaire spends his money is probably a dumb way to spend your time. They traded Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman. I think they've got the message.

[Arky Vaughan]

I'm saying that I don't know and neither do you.  You don't need to field the worst 25 guys in the league to rebuild.  Houston is a big market, and we can afford a few players.  Everyone picked the Padres last before the season, and they are looking at the post season.  The astros don't have a dominant number two, but, with wandy, happ, and myers, they have a very solid 2-4.  They could win some games.

The Berkman trade to be a DH against only RH pitching makes it clear the dichotomy between the haves and the have nots in the MLB.  If the astros tap out on money and field a 60 win team around Myers and never do anything else, then I'll buy you a beer, but I'm saying he's a good player that can be a nice piece on a team.  Let's trust the management on this one.  

Who said they had to field the worst players?

[Mr. Happy]

This is the kind of thinking that got the Astros to this point. They've been playing well lately, and it's been an exciting few weeks, particularly since Bagwell was hired, not that I'm attributing it to that, but that's roughly when the recent surge dates from.

But McLane has thought they were just one or two players away since 2006, particularly based on their comebacks in 2004 and 2005, and he consequently made decisions based on his view that the club was closer to returning to the playoffs than they actually were.

I hope I have to eat all my words above in 2011, but I think the trade buzz and the successful weekend are leading to some irrational exuberance here.

I am not irrationally exuberant about the ball club. I'm just saying that the starting pitching has the potential to be very good. If the kids come through at the plate, the competition is so watered down that they could compete for a wild card as early as next year.

[Arky Vaughan]

Agonizing about how a billionaire spends his money is probably a dumb way to spend your time. They traded Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman. I think they've got the message.

They got the message? They insisted on a major-leaguer for Oswalt. They just committed $21 million for a guy turning 30 soon. Happ and Myers have value, but they are not the kind of players a rebuilding team should devote its resources to. Drayton McLane wants to refresh and apparently still thinks they are just a player or two away. "Win now" seems to still be the plan.

I hope I'm wrong, but I suspect they are prolonging getting back to the postseason rather than accelerating it.

[Arky Vaughan]

I am not irrationally exuberant about the ball club. I'm just saying that the starting pitching has the potential to be very good. If the kids come through at the plate, the competition is so watered down that they could compete for a wild card as early as next year.

A wild card in 2011? We'll see. I hope so, but I'm not seeing it.

[BizidyDizidy]

They got the message? They insisted on a major-leaguer for Oswalt. They just committed $21 million for a guy turning 30 soon. Happ and Myers have value, but they are not the kind of players a rebuilding team should devote its resources to. Drayton McLane wants to refresh and apparently still thinks they are just a player or two away. "Win now" seems to still be the plan.

I hope I'm wrong, but I suspect they are prolonging getting back to the postseason rather than accelerating it.

My dad has season tickets. I don't think he is going to be happy seeing a loss 2 out of 3 games for the forseeable future. Complaining about Myers makes no sense to me - Drayton has a billion dollars and is a businessman. If he thinks Myers is the way to spend his money, why do you care. If you want to complain about a 27 year old promising lefty with success in the majors, I guess that is your prerogative.

[Arky Vaughan]

I think there are more if's than that but most of the if's regard the development of the younguns' on the big club.

If Castro, Johnson, Manzella, and Wallace do what the development folks believe they are capable of doing...

If Lee rebounds to be a force...

Or, if not, add a middle of the order hitter who can play either LF or RF and bench Lee...

Then add 1 top of the rotation starter, and yes they probably contend.

IF the Astros have enough prospects to make more than 1 big deal.

IF the right players are available to trade for.

The big if's are on the rebuilding side.

Next year:
Bourn CF
Keppinger 2B
Lee or trade LF
Wallace 1B
Pence RF
Johnson 3B
Castro C
Manzella SS

Myers
Wandy
Happ

Norris
Paulino
Wright
trade

Lindstrom
Lyon
etc

Lee, Castro, Johnson, Manzella, Wallace: if 2 or more of those if's don't come true then they probably don't do enough to win.  If only 1 then I think it's possible.

That's a lot of reliance on if's turning out.

Making the playoffs in 2011 or 2012 would be a lot more like 1986, when a whole bunch of guys played at or above what was expected of them, than in 1998 or 2004, when they built a juggernaut of guys who did what they were supposed to do. And if a lot of those if's do not come to pass, they could lose 90 games. I would prefer a long-term rebuilding plan to betting on a long shot.

[Arky Vaughan]

My dad has season tickets. I don't think he is going to be happy seeing a loss 2 out of 3 games for the forseeable future. Complaining about Myers makes no sense to me - Drayton has a billion dollars and is a businessman. If he thinks Myers is the way to spend his money, why do you care. If you want to complain about a 27 year old promising lefty with success in the majors, I guess that is your prerogative.

Because if the resources spent on Myers could be better spent elsewhere on the team, then his signing diminishes the team's long-term chances of success.

[BizidyDizidy]

Because if the resources spent on Myers could be better spent elsewhere on the team, then his signing diminishes the team's long-term chances of success.

What do you think the trade-off is? What is the evidence there is one?

[jbm]

Jeez, Drayton got "it" three years ago when he realized that drafts, foreign signings and player development are core  He hired Wade, who hired Heck, and it probably filtered down to all integral to that goal. In other words, he has been doing things to reach your goal for years, right in front of you.  That momentum will not be impeded by getting Happ or signing Myers.

[JackAstro]

Because if the resources spent on Myers could be better spent elsewhere on the team, then his signing diminishes the team's long-term chances of success.

Long-term? It's a fucking two year deal in a rebuilding phase. His contract isn't keeping Latin American academies from being built, for chrissakes. Draft picks aren't going unsigned as a result, the scouting system hasn't been de-prioritized, and Drayton just gave over $2.5 million to a teenager from the Dominican to play minor league ball next year. Money's being spent all over – it seems like you're tilting at windmills here.

[Arky Vaughan]

Jeez, Drayton got "it" three years ago when he realized that drafts, foreign signings and player development are core  He hired Wade, who hired Heck, and it probably filtered down to all integral to that goal. In other words, he has been doing things to reach your goal for years, right in front of you.  That momentum will not be impeded by getting Happ or signing Myers.

I hope they will not impede momentum. I'd love to think the youth reinforcements can come to fruition while Myers, Happ and Rodriguez are still pitching well and all affordable and that the mix will be strong enough to contend.

[Lurch]

Not easily at his price.

Because Drayton would never throw in cash.

[OregonStrosFan]

Because if the resources spent on Myers could be better spent elsewhere on the team, then his signing diminishes the team's long-term chances of success.

Where else would you have the money spent? Draft/international free agency?  Drayton is opening the checkbook in both areas and it's not like he could just go out and buy prospects from another team.  

LF/RF/CF? Already spending plenty on LF, and CF & RF aren't going anywhere.  

C/1B/3B? Kids are going to get their shot, unless you are somehow suggesting the Astros should go out and get an FA there and send the kids down (also not happening unless they absolutely crash and burn...).

So what, that leaves 2B & SS? A couple of relievers? A cheap starter? Just not understanding where the resources could be better spent.

Additionally, this is no Carlos Silva/ Gil Mesche / Carlos Zambrano contract - it's 2 years / $20M'ish unless it vests into a third year or the Astros decide to exercise the option.  Not the worst contract ever by any means.    

[Arky Vaughan]

What do you think the trade-off is? What is the evidence there is one?

There is the small matter of the veteran free-agent signings over the last few years coinciding with the decline in the farm system including the team's failure or refusal to sign its draft picks and reports that the development budget was not well funded. Maybe those had nothing to do with each other, but I assume that money spent by the team in one area comes from money that would have been spent by the team in another area. Maybe I am wrong and Drayton does not run the team that way.

[Arky Vaughan]

Because Drayton would never throw in cash.

The need to do so makes a deal more difficult.

[Arky Vaughan]

Long-term? It's a fucking two year deal in a rebuilding phase. His contract isn't keeping Latin American academies from being built, for chrissakes. Draft picks aren't going unsigned as a result, the scouting system hasn't been de-prioritized, and Drayton just gave over $2.5 million to a teenager from the Dominican to play minor league ball next year. Money's being spent all over – it seems like you're tilting at windmills here.

So this is just some extra money Drayton wants to pour into the team?

Sorry to get you so worked up that you feel the need to cuss about it.

[Arky Vaughan]

Where else would you have the money spent? Draft/international free agency?  Drayton is opening the checkbook in both areas and it's not like he could just go out and buy prospects from another team.  

LF/RF/CF? Already spending plenty on LF, and CF & RF aren't going anywhere.  

C/1B/3B? Kids are going to get their shot, unless you are somehow suggesting the Astros should go out and get an FA there and send the kids down (also not happening unless they absolutely crash and burn...).

So what, that leaves 2B & SS? A couple of relievers? A cheap starter? Just not understanding where the resources could be better spent.

Additionally, this is no Carlos Silva/ Gil Mesche / Carlos Zambrano contract - it's 2 years / $20M'ish unless it vests into a third year or the Astros decide to exercise the option.  Not the worst contract ever by any means.    

It's not an awful contract. It's not what you'd typically expect for a team beginning a rebuilding process.

[OregonStrosFan]

There is the small matter of the veteran free-agent signings over the last few years coinciding with the decline in the farm system including the team's failure or refusal to sign its draft picks and reports that the development budget was not well funded. Maybe those had nothing to do with each other, but I assume that money spent by the team in one area comes from money that would have been spent by the team in another area. Maybe I am wrong and Drayton does not run the team that way.

Dude, that is so 2007...

Post 2007 draftees have been signed, money has been spent on international signings, int'l scouting has been amped up, etc.  One of the Astros fansites has something called the Bus Ride Forum or some crap like that.  They spend a lot of time talking about prospects, drafts, international signings, the job being done rebuilding the system, money Drayton is spending, etc. Wish I could remember where this site was, I'd give you a link to it or something...

[Arky Vaughan]

Dude, that is so 2007...

Post 2007 draftees have been signed, money has been spent on international signings, int'l scouting has been amped up, etc.  One of the Astros fansites has something called the Bus Ride Forum or some crap like that.  They spend a lot of time talking about prospects, drafts, international signings, the job being done rebuilding the system, money Drayton is spending, etc. Wish I could remember where this site was, I'd give you a link to it or something...

Right. That started about the time they stopped using big-free agent contracts to build the team. The best change that has come about during Wade's tenure has been starting the process of putting the farm system back together. I hope short-term win-now strategies don't distract from that.

[coop]

There has to be some resemblance of a major league team on Opening Day 2011, no?  If not, who the fuck would buy tickets?

[jnh]

Myers had an $8mil mutual option for next year.  If Astros and he agree to exercise it, the Astros are out that amount, but have a decent pitcher for next year.

If the Astros choose not to exercise it, they lose $2mil in the buyout.

If Brett does not exercise the option, then the Astros may retain him via arbitration, which is somewhat unpredictable, and as previously discussed http://www.spikesnstars.com/forums/index.php?topic=111312.0 is not likely to yield much for the Astros if they can not come to some agreement with him. 

With this contract, Brett is paid $7mil next year plus a $2mil signing bonus, and is then owed $11mil in 2012 and $10mil in 13 if the option is picked up. http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100731&content_id=12856526&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou

It seems, then, that the key is whether $8 or $9mil for Myers next year is worth it in the context of a rebuilding team, and if $11 mil in 2012 is too much a risk to take in terms of his ability and attractiveness as trade bait at that price (if all the if’s for a quick Padre-like rebuilding does not pan out).   

It would be interesting to know what Ed Wade turned down in terms of the offers he got for Myers, but they must not have been good enough for Ed.  Is that because he/Drayton have an unrealistic plan for rebuilding?  Or because they figured they would still have to pay someone to pitch and for all that Myers brings, $9mil next year is reasonable, and won’t impede the rebuilding.

[coop]

I think it is much bigger picture than just simply rebuilding and starting from scratch...the extension of Brett Myers' was hardly a step in the wrong direction.  Houston is not a "small market" team and there is not really a need nor a good reason rip it completely apart and start over.....nor do they have the depth coming up the rankings to do this.  Signing Myers does not break the bank and it give the reason for fans to come to the ballpark.  The owner has a huge investment in an asset that he needs to make sure has appeal and marketability to prospective buyers.  He can't do that if he has an organization that has a huge liability with a top of the league payroll and significant long-term commitments to aging players on the wrong side of their prime...making it likely somewhat more palatable to pick up good portions of Oswalt and Berkman's contracts.  He can't do that either when he has alienated his season ticket holders or more importantly his corporate base by fielding a team full of a bunch of unknowns and/or major league retreads.  This is a big business and there a big dollars involved.

[Jacksonian]

It's not an awful contract. It's not what you'd typically expect for a team beginning a rebuilding process.

You know they don't have anyone in the system ready to step into a major league starting pitching role for 2011.  Without Myers they'd have Happ, Wandy, Norris, Wright and Paulino.  That isn't going to cut it.  They would have to pay a decent free agent to come pitch.  How much would that have cost anyway?

[BudGirl]

There has to be some resemblance of a major league team on Opening Day 2011, no?  If not, who the fuck would buy tickets?

Interesting opinion.  I have a couple friends, with season tickets, that are happier with the team now than the one that started the season. 

I have more faith in the current 9 taking the field than the previous 9.  I even think Carlos Lee is going to turn it around, obviously it is late but he's going to start turning things around.  Good things are going to happen and don't think I think they will win it all, but I think they can end up 3rd in the central.  I didn't think that before last week.

[Rebel Jew]

There is the small matter of the veteran free-agent signings IN-OVER-HIS-HEAD GM over the last few years coinciding with the decline in the farm system including the team's failure or refusal to sign its draft picks and reports that the development budget was not well funded.

And besides the statement I fixed, I don't think it's fair to look back at those free agent signings and trades and criticize.  You had an aging team on the downside of its playoff runs, but one that was still reasonably competitive.  I have no problem at all with signing some free agents and giving it one last hurrah, especially with guys like Biggio and Ausmus still around.  The real problem was having a starting pitching staff filled with duds like Jason Jennings, Woody Williams, and Backe.

[astrosfan76]

Salary commitments for '11:

Lee-$18.5M
Myers-$8.5M
Lyon-$5M

That's only $32M guaranteed for next season.  You could throw in Blum's $1.65M mutual option and still be under $34M.  For the arbitration-eligible guys, here are what they're making this season, with a semi-reasonable guess (assuming they don't hand out any more long-term deals):

Wandy-$5M ('10) $7M ('11)
Pence-$3.5M ('10) $5.5M ('11)
Bourn-$2.4M ('10) $3.8M ('11)
Lindstrom $1.625M ('10) $4M ('11)
Byrdak $1.6M ('10) $1.8M ('11)
Keppinger $1.15M ('10) $2.5M ('11)
Sampson $815K ('10) $1M ('11)
Quintero $750K ('10) $900K ('11)

That's ~$26.5M in arbitration figures, if my guesses are anywhere close to accurate.  For 11 guys that gives us a payroll of just over $60M.  With the current composition, it's entirely possible that we could fill the other 13 roster spots with guys making the minimum of $400K, for an additional $5.2M.  Given the recent payrolls pushing $100M, I don't think a $66M payroll is going to hamstring the club.  Granted, I don't know how the club will factor Philly's Oswalt money into the payroll, but payroll definitely will not be a problem next season.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Salary commitments for '11:

Lee-$18.5M
Myers-$8.5M
Lyon-$5M

That's only $32M guaranteed for next season.  You could throw in Blum's $1.65M mutual option and still be under $34M.  For the arbitration-eligible guys, here are what they're making this season, with a semi-reasonable guess (assuming they don't hand out any more long-term deals):

Wandy-$5M ('10) $7M ('11)
Pence-$3.5M ('10) $5.5M ('11)
Bourn-$2.4M ('10) $3.8M ('11)
Lindstrom $1.625M ('10) $4M ('11)
Byrdak $1.6M ('10) $1.8M ('11)
Keppinger $1.15M ('10) $2.5M ('11)
Sampson $815K ('10) $1M ('11)
Quintero $750K ('10) $900K ('11)

That's ~$26.5M in arbitration figures, if my guesses are anywhere close to accurate.  For 11 guys that gives us a payroll of just over $60M.  With the current composition, it's entirely possible that we could fill the other 13 roster spots with guys making the minimum of $400K, for an additional $5.2M.  Given the recent payrolls pushing $100M, I don't think a $66M payroll is going to hamstring the club.  Granted, I don't know how the club will factor Philly's Oswalt money into the payroll, but payroll definitely will not be a problem next season.

Factor it into the total, so add another 12mil to next yr's payroll.  That should give you a fair number.

[Andyzipp]

Arky,

With all due respect...(has any good ever come of a sentence starting this way?)...as the Astros have NO, and I mean NO younger pitchers ready for the majors in 2011, I'm failing to see how Myers' extension is all that concerning.

The signing wasn't for an obscene amount of money. It wasn't even out of line for a pitcher with Myers credentials.
There is no pesky no-trade clause in there.
Myers looks to be an innings eater, as long as he stays healthy.

Additionally, McLane and Wade both expect the payroll for next year to be in the 93 million dollar range.  I don't think, despite McLane's history with Lee and a few others, any FA signings (or contract extensions) are going to preclude the continued focus on player development.

I think what we'll see is a continued paring down of payroll, where/when it makes sense (Lee, Wandy, Lyon), as kids in the organization are ready to be in the MLB.  I also think the WORST thing this organization could do right now is push the talent in the minors to the majors too soon, especially since the bulk of that talent is in some form of A ball this year.

Based on results, it's a horrible example, but I would expect to see more Feliz type signings...players to fit a hole while the org decides on the readiness of the younger guys.

[JimR]

I don't think so, but Myer's not blocking anyone, and his salary is not going to otherwise be spent on player development – it's not a one or the other thing. What the harm in trying to win some games and have a stable anchor of the staff for the next 2-3 seasons? It's not coming at the expense of the future, so far as I can see.

anchor and veteran leadership. it matters in real baseball.

[Arky Vaughan]

And besides the statement I fixed, I don't think it's fair to look back at those free agent signings and trades and criticize.  You had an aging team on the downside of its playoff runs, but one that was still reasonably competitive.  I have no problem at all with signing some free agents and giving it one last hurrah, especially with guys like Biggio and Ausmus still around.  The real problem was having a starting pitching staff filled with duds like Jason Jennings, Woody Williams, and Backe.

The statement wasn't a criticism of the signings and trades, it was an observation that money being spent on big-league payroll coincided with a decline in spending on the farm system during the middle part of the decade.

[Arky Vaughan]

Arky,

With all due respect...(has any good ever come of a sentence starting this way?)...as the Astros have NO, and I mean NO younger pitchers ready for the majors in 2011, I'm failing to see how Myers' extension is all that concerning.

The signing wasn't for an obscene amount of money. It wasn't even out of line for a pitcher with Myers credentials.
There is no pesky no-trade clause in there.
Myers looks to be an innings eater, as long as he stays healthy.

Additionally, McLane and Wade both expect the payroll for next year to be in the 93 million dollar range.  I don't think, despite McLane's history with Lee and a few others, any FA signings (or contract extensions) are going to preclude the continued focus on player development.

I think what we'll see is a continued paring down of payroll, where/when it makes sense (Lee, Wandy, Lyon), as kids in the organization are ready to be in the MLB.  I also think the WORST thing this organization could do right now is push the talent in the minors to the majors too soon, especially since the bulk of that talent is in some form of A ball this year.

Based on results, it's a horrible example, but I would expect to see more Feliz type signings...players to fit a hole while the org decides on the readiness of the younger guys.

I'd certainly rather see Myers signings than Feliz signings.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

I'd certainly rather see Myers signings than Feliz signings.

Prior to this post, I suspected you were arguing for arguments sake.  Now I think you are bitching just because you feel like it. 

This is a contract that values a pitcher at a reasonable, innings-eater level.  There's no way this is a bad signing unless you have proof it diverted funds from another player/investment where the money would have been better spent.  This team is going to need solid veterans that provide a disciplined, competitive example to some very young players with little, if any, experience.  If you can't appreciate that, just say so and I'll put you on ignore.   Bringing up Feliz overlooks the key reason that signing happened, i.e. Johnson was not ready (and Wade even mentioned that recently, iirc, stating CJ had "fits and starts in 2009 and again to start 2010").  So let's not play the hindsight game. 

[geezerdonk]

I like Wilton Lopez signings.

[Mr. Happy]

I'd certainly rather see Myers signings than Feliz signings.

I agree with you, but the $64,000 question is how do you know in advance? Suppose Feliz had raked this year and played well at 3B (both of which we know didn't happen)? Everyone would be cooing about the signing. Feliz was intended to be an insurance policy in case Johnson was over his head at the major league level. I don't think that he'll be back next season.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

I agree with you, but the $64,000 question is how do you know in advance? Suppose Feliz had raked this year and played well at 3B (both of which we know didn't happen)? Everyone would be cooing about the signing. Feliz was intended to be an insurance policy in case Johnson was over his head at the major league level. I don't think that he'll be back next season.

That's just it, Feliz was hitting close to expectations to start the season.  His glove is what failed.  Tell me, who predicted that?  His collapse at the plate was the least of the concern, as far as I could tell.  It was the weak glove work AND the poor hitting that got him moved to a bench role.  No one thought he was going to be an all-star.  They hired him to provide steady defense at 3B and serve in the 6/7 spot in this lineup.  Anyone who thinks the 6/7 guy is the key to this lineup or the primary reason this team can't score runs, please feel free to state that now.  

[moriartp]

I like Wilton Lopez signings.

Arias, Fulchino, Lopez... Wade has been a waiver-wire ninja.

[Lefty]

Arias, Fulchino, Lopez... Wade has been a waiver-wire ninja.

He's just a bullpen tinkerer.

[Bench]

Because if the resources spent on Myers could be better spent elsewhere on the team, then his signing diminishes the team's long-term chances of success.

That's a lot of if's right there.

Your point seems to be they should just cancel all their games until they're ready to contend, but not do anything to put themselves into a position where they maybe one day ready to contend.  Basically, you have no point.

[JackAstro]

So this is just some extra money Drayton wants to pour into the team?

Sorry to get you so worked up that you feel the need to cuss about it.

I'm not worked up, I cuss as a matter of emphasis, and because I find it pleasant and comfortable to do so. Sorry cussing offends your delicate fucking sensibilities.

[Arky Vaughan]

Prior to this post, I suspected you were arguing for arguments sake.  Now I think you are bitching just because you feel like it.

Or maybe we just have a difference of opinion. Sorry to burst your bubble.

This is a contract that values a pitcher at a reasonable, innings-eater level.  There's no way this is a bad signing unless you have proof it diverted funds from another player/investment where the money would have been better spent.  This team is going to need solid veterans that provide a disciplined, competitive example to some very young players with little, if any, experience.  If you can't appreciate that, just say so and I'll put you on ignore.   Bringing up Feliz overlooks the key reason that signing happened, i.e. Johnson was not ready (and Wade even mentioned that recently, iirc, stating CJ had "fits and starts in 2009 and again to start 2010").  So let's not play the hindsight game.

There is no site rule that says you have to read or respond to anyone's posts if you care not to.

[Bench]

Now I think you are bitching just because you feel like it. 

Just figuring this out now? 

[Arky Vaughan]

That's just it, Feliz was hitting close to expectations to start the season.  His glove is what failed.  Tell me, who predicted that?  His collapse at the plate was the least of the concern, as far as I could tell.  It was the weak glove work AND the poor hitting that got him moved to a bench role.  No one thought he was going to be an all-star.  They hired him to provide steady defense at 3B and serve in the 6/7 spot in this lineup.  Anyone who thinks the 6/7 guy is the key to this lineup or the primary reason this team can't score runs, please feel free to state that now.

Prior to this season, Feliz's career numbers were .254/.293/.422. His performance this season is not terribly surprising.

[Arky Vaughan]

I'm not worked up, I cuss as a matter of emphasis, and because I find it pleasant and comfortable to do so. Sorry cussing offends your delicate fucking sensibilities.

Not offended at all. Emphasis duly noted.

[JimR]

Just figuring this out now? 

just because he does not post for weeks on end does not mean he has changed.

[Arky Vaughan]

That's a lot of if's right there.

Your point seems to be they should just cancel all their games until they're ready to contend, but not do anything to put themselves into a position where they maybe one day ready to contend.  Basically, you have no point.

Not at all. Watching the young guys play will be more interesting than the overage product that has been on the field for the last couple of seasons. They put themselves in a position to contend by putting young players with upside into the mix, giving them as much playing time as possible and seeing who can play. This has been stated more than once. There is a point. You just seem to have missed it.

[Bench]

Not at all. Watching the young guys play will be more interesting than the overage product that has been on the field for the last couple of seasons. They put themselves in a position to contend by putting young players with upside into the mix, giving them as much playing time as possible and seeing who can play. This has been stated more than once. There is a point. You just seem to have missed it.

Sure, I'm fully cognizant of the fact that there's a point to the moves the Astros are making.  It's your bitching about them signing a reliable youngish veteran pitcher to a 2-3 year deal at a reasonable price that has no point. 

[Arky Vaughan]

Sure, I'm fully cognizant of the fact that there's a point to the moves the Astros are making.  It's your bitching about them signing a reliable youngish veteran pitcher to a 2-3 year deal at a reasonable price that has no point.

Why are you bitching about someone disagreeing with you?

[Arky Vaughan]

just because he does not post for weeks on end does not mean he has changed.

One thing that surely has not changed is that nothing grates here as much as apostasy.

[Bench]

Why are you bitching about someone disagreeing with you?

Once your thread of directionless moaning reached five pages, I took notice.

[Andyzipp]

Not at all. Watching the young guys play will be more interesting than the overage product that has been on the field for the last couple of seasons. They put themselves in a position to contend by putting young players with upside into the mix, giving them as much playing time as possible and seeing who can play. This has been stated more than once. There is a point. You just seem to have missed it.

Can you agree that there just isn't enough young talent in the Astros org to field a team?  If there were a bunch (or any) MLB ready prospects in the system being blocked by the Brett Myers' of the world, sure, I think your point(s) would be vaild.

As it is, the "most-ready" pitcher in the system has recently been promoted to AA and is figuring it out.  Throwing him to the bigs next year would be a bad deal.  Even if he's ready sometime in 2011, you need 4 other starters. 

[Arky Vaughan]

I agree with you, but the $64,000 question is how do you know in advance? Suppose Feliz had raked this year and played well at 3B (both of which we know didn't happen)? Everyone would be cooing about the signing. Feliz was intended to be an insurance policy in case Johnson was over his head at the major league level. I don't think that he'll be back next season.

I can't conceive that they'd bring him back. Hopefully with the youth movement in swing, there will be more room to let the young guys work those kinks out.

[JackAstro]

One thing that surely has not changed is that nothing grates here as much as apostasy.

Yes, that's it. We're all in lock-step dogmatic belief that the club desperately needs players in their late 20's and early 30's. We all had a meeting without you to decide this. If you attack that belief, you attack us all.

Either that, or we just independently disagree with what we believe is a flawed argument against the recent moves the club has made. Which probably isn't that big of a deal, but hell, everyone likes arguing on the internet. It's cathartic.

[Arky Vaughan]

Once your thread of directionless moaning reached five pages, I took notice.

There's no need to read or post if you don't want to. Perhaps your time might be better spent discussing topics only with people in lockstep agreement with you.

[Andyzipp]

I can't conceive that they'd bring him back. Hopefully with the youth movement in swing, there will be more room to let the young guys work those kinks out.

Even the most rebuildingest of teams would prefer to have some vets on the bench and in the bullpen.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Or maybe we just have a difference of opinion. Sorry to burst your bubble.

There is no site rule that says you have to read or respond to anyone's posts if you care not to.

Apostasy? Lock step?  Is that hyperbole or melodrama?  

Any chance you can respond to any of the arguments opposing your baseless claims?  I'm still waiting for any useful response that the Myers signing took money away from player development or blocked a player who is worthy of promotion to the majors.  

[Arky Vaughan]

Can you agree that there just isn't enough young talent in the Astros org to field a team?  If there were a bunch (or any) MLB ready prospects in the system being blocked by the Brett Myers' of the world, sure, I think your point(s) would be vaild.

As it is, the "most-ready" pitcher in the system has recently been promoted to AA and is figuring it out.  Throwing him to the bigs next year would be a bad deal.  Even if he's ready sometime in 2011, you need 4 other starters.

I don't disagree with much if any of that. As I've reiterated for two days, I'm concerned that McLane has a different perspective than that expressed by many people here. McLane is notorious for being reluctant to concede that the team may be more than a couple of players away. I don't think that makes McLane nefarious in any way, but that approach is what got the team to where it did from 2006 to 2010. In the interview before Friday's game, McLane said that just before spring training he thought the team had a legitmiate shot to contend. I don't fault him for being optimistic or trying to market his product, but McLane was delusional if he really believed that. Myers is having a very solid year and was signed at a price that is reasonable given what might be expected of him. That being said, does the Myer signing mean that McLane thinks that if they just plug in a couple more parts, they are a playoff contender in 2011? If so, then he's being unrealistic, which has caused him to misallocate resources in the past.

[Reuben]

Personally, I suspect that since:
1) they "listened to offers" for Myers, and Wandy, but didn't find anything they liked,

2) Wandy has been on an absolute 2009-esque roll, and

3) they just singed Myers to a reasonable extension

I'd guess they are probably planning to see what offers they get for Wandy in the off-season, or early next season. Myers is 3 years younger than Wandy. If you traded or lost both of them, that puts Happ as the elder statesman of your 2011 rotation. Now, they have Myers as that veteran, innings-eater guy, so their young bullpen guys don't all have their arms fall off while they let the Norris's and Lyles's of the future learn how to consistently pitch past the 5th inning. Sounds reasonable to me, even though I am still a little uncomfortable "cheering" for Myers.

[Arky Vaughan]

Apostasy? Lock step?  Is that hyperbole or melodrama?  

Any chance you can respond to any of the arguments opposing your baseless claims?  I'm still waiting for any useful response that the Myers signing took money away from player development or blocked a player who is worthy of promotion to the majors.

Hyperbole and melodrama is your baseless accusation that somebody disagreeing with you is just doing so for the sake or arguing or for the sake of bitching. It takes a pretty high degree of certitude for you to make that assumption.

Unless you think McLane has some special jar of "free-agent money" separate and apart from what he spends on the rest of the team, then, yes, the resources committed to Myers are resources that will not be committed elsewhere. The Astros have been very good about rejuvenating the farm system, and I look forward to seeing the fruits of that. I also look forward to seeing what pieces they will add as the youth movement develops in the next few years. I want their resources spent in that direction. If Myers contributes to that, then I will happily eat my words.

[JimR]

I want their resources spent in that direction.

have you let Drayton know what you demand? what arrogance.

[Andyzipp]

I don't disagree with much if any of that. As I've reiterated for two days, I'm concerned that McLane has a different perspective than that expressed by many people here. McLane is notorious for being reluctant to concede that the team may be more than a couple of players away. I don't think that makes McLane nefarious in any way, but that approach is what got the team to where it did from 2006 to 2010. In the interview before Friday's game, McLane said that just before spring training he thought the team had a legitmiate shot to contend. I don't fault him for being optimistic or trying to market his product, but McLane was delusional if he really believed that. Myers is having a very solid year and was signed at a price that is reasonable given what might be expected of him. That being said, does the Myer signing mean that McLane thinks that if they just plug in a couple more parts, they are a playoff contender in 2011? If so, then he's being unrealistic, which has caused him to misallocate resources in the past.

From the (very) few souces I have, I don't get the idea that McLane believes that the team is one, two or 10 players away.  The org is VERY serious about building through the draft and beefing up their international efforts.  The recent big signing (2.5 for the Dominican hitter, iirc) is an example of how aggressive they would like to be in that arena.

I do think McLane will say anything, and I mean anything to sell tickets to the masses in Houston and that's what interviews about refreshing the team are (hopefully) about.

[BUWebguy]

Seems like one's opinion of the Myers signing depends on how one sees the franchise moving beyond this single move.

If you focus on the recent drafts and trades of Berkman/Oswalt and see McLane as finally changing his win-now ways, then this seems like a reasonable deal to provide a veteran influence on an otherwise young team being turned over to rookies.

If you focus on recent veteran signings like Feliz (and even Myers last offseason) and worry that McLane will never really change his ways, then this seems like one more unnecessary veteran free agent signing that won't make a difference when the Astros are really ready to content in 2012 or whenever.

Personally, I'm not sure whether Drayton has really changed or not, but there's nothing I can do about it, so I'm going to sit back and carry the glass-half-full approach, hoping that things are really on the upswing in the organization.

[pots]

I don't see why everyone is so convinced that the Astros can't compete next year.  You replace Lee with Crawford in the off season and you have a solid lineup:

Bourn - L
Kepp - R
Crawford - L
Pence - R
Wallace - L
Johnson - R
Castro - L
Sanchez - R

Your going to have to eat at least 17 times 2 fro Lee just to unload him.  And you have to consider 6 million for Oswalt.  but that would seemingly leave 15-16 mil open for Crawford and still keep the payroll around 80 million.

[Rebel Jew]

Unless you think McLane has some special jar of "free-agent money" separate and apart from what he spends on the rest of the team, then, yes, the resources committed to Myers are resources that will not be committed elsewhere. The Astros have been very good about rejuvenating the farm system, and I look forward to seeing the fruits of that. I also look forward to seeing what pieces they will add as the youth movement develops in the next few years. I want their resources spent in that direction. If Myers contributes to that, then I will happily eat my words.

Myers is a very good pitcher.  He's playoff-experienced, reasonably durable, and pitches deep into games every start.  He's also only 29, and we didn't have to break the bank to get him.  I'm no baseball general managerer, but when I have the chance to sign a proven, quality starting pitcher to a multi-year deal at a reasonable salary I fucking do it and I don't try to create reasons to bitch about it.

Hey, let's see what this Ed Wade guy has to say about it:

"Brett has been a warrior for us this year," said Wade. "He has re-established himself as a frontline starting pitcher, and we're going to rely on him to anchor our staff. He brings a veteran presence, and he's still only 29 years old."

Hmm.  Veteran but not too old?  Frontline starting pitcher?  Anchor of a young pitching staff?  WHAT A FUCKING TERRIBLE SIGNING!  THINK OF ALL THE SINGLE-A PLAYERS WHO'LL HAVE TO SAND THEIR BATS WITH DISCARDED TAMPONS FROM THE LADIES' RESTROOM BECAUSE THE TEAM COULDN'T AFFORD SANDPAPER!

[JackAstro]

...You replace Lee with Crawford in the off season...

MAGIC!

[pots]

MAGIC!

It's not that far fetched.  You almost have to release Lee and Crawford is a free agent.  He'll cost the Astros a second round pick.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Seems like one's opinion of the Myers signing depends on how one sees the franchise moving beyond this single move.

If you focus on the recent drafts and trades of Berkman/Oswalt and see McLane as finally changing his win-now ways, then this seems like a reasonable deal to provide a veteran influence on an otherwise young team being turned over to rookies.

If you focus on recent veteran signings like Feliz (and even Myers last offseason) and worry that McLane will never really change his ways, then this seems like one more unnecessary veteran free agent signing that won't make a difference when the Astros are really ready to content in 2012 or whenever.

Personally, I'm not sure whether Drayton has really changed or not, but there's nothing I can do about it, so I'm going to sit back and carry the glass-half-full approach, hoping that things are really on the upswing in the organization.

I'm okay with everything you posted.  That's not what he stated.  We now have a statement, no demand, that money be spent on player development only.  Personally, I'd like to see the specific prospect/draftee who was not signed due to Myers' contact.  

So far, DeShields and Plutko are the highest draftees to remain unsigned.OSF has a nice link in the Bus detailing the Plutko status.  It even mentions that he might not be signed depending on how the money situation breaks down.   As of now, Houston has 14 more days to sign both draftees, assuming either or both are willing to sign for the dollar value Houston feels they deserve.  

Personally, I'd like to see Houston spend their money where they see the most return on the dollar, even if it means letting some talented prospects walk if they can't agree to terms.  I think the long term strategy is fairly evident and supported in by statements from Wade in recent press conferences.  McLane is a travelling salesman, shaking hands and kissing babies.  He can say whatever he wants, as the owner.  I just hope his actions continue to indicate he's letting his baseball people make baseball decisions, which is how I read the Myers extension.  But that's just the opinion of a devoted SNS disciple.

[JackAstro]

It's not that far fetched.  You almost have to release Lee and Crawford is a free agent.  He'll cost the Astros a second round pick.

Unless Carlos' production absolutely plummets, I don't see the club paying him $40+ million dollars to not play. But that just, like, my opinion, man.

[Mr. Happy]

I do think McLane will say anything, and I mean anything  to sell tickets to the masses in Houston and that's what interviews about refreshing the team are (hopefully) about.

I agree with this and even added some emphasis on "anything." What do you expect from him? An objective analysis of his club? Since he bought the club, Drayton McLane has been very careful to leave the realistic baseball talk to his baseball people. He speaks only in platitudes, e.g. be a champion, etc. That leaves him to play the sales/good guy role before the public, which he's pretty good at doing. I only listen to his baseball people for information or leanings, not Mr. McLane.

[pots]

Unless Carlos' production absolutely plummets

How low can you go?  Defensively he costs you runs so subtract that from whatever he provides.


Hopefully you get someone to pick up 2-3 million a year so you only pay him 32-34 million not to play for you.  He'd be a fine DH for 2-3 million a year.

[Limey]

It's cathartic.

Actually, I'm Church of England.

[Limey]

Unless Carlos' production absolutely plummets, I don't see the club paying him $40+ million dollars to not play. But that just, like, my opinion, man.

Worse.  They'll be paying him $40+ million, minus league minimum, to play for someone else.  Anyone else not see a giant, dry, arse-reaming coming round the bend from that scenario?  Didn't think so.

[Arky Vaughan]

From the (very) few souces I have, I don't get the idea that McLane believes that the team is one, two or 10 players away.  The org is VERY serious about building through the draft and beefing up their international efforts.  The recent big signing (2.5 for the Dominican hitter, iirc) is an example of how aggressive they would like to be in that arena.

I do think McLane will say anything, and I mean anything to sell tickets to the masses in Houston and that's what interviews about refreshing the team are (hopefully) about.

I hope so. I understand that he has to talk a good game. The moves in the draft and farm system are very promising.

[Arky Vaughan]

have you let Drayton know what you demand? what arrogance.

I demanded nothing. I just stated what I would like to see them do. You express your opinions all the time, and forcefully at that. When others share their views, though, it's arrogance. Do you ever get tired of being so cranky and hypocritical?

[pots]

Worse.  They'll be paying him $40+ million, minus league minimum, to play for someone else.  Anyone else not see a giant, dry, arse-reaming coming round the bend from that scenario?  Didn't think so.

You folks keep saying $40+ million,  Not that it is that much better but according to the contract details I've see it's 18.5 per year (2011, 2012). 

[Limey]

You folks keep saying $40+ million,  Not that it is that much better but according to the contract details I've see it's 18.5 per year (2011, 2012). 

Plus meals...

[Lurch]

Plus meals...

And the addl jet fuel

[pots]

Plus meals...

too funny

I would stand corrected, but if you give him away to another team, that's their responsibility.

[Arky Vaughan]

I'm okay with everything you posted.  That's not what he stated.  We now have a statement, no demand, that money be spent on player development only.

Where did I "demand" anything? Where did I say that's "only" where money should be spent? Stop lying about what I have written. If you disagree with me, fine, but there's no need to be dishonest over an honest disagreement.

[MusicMan]

I don't see why everyone is so convinced that the Astros can't compete next year.  You replace Lee with Crawford in the off season and you have a solid lineup:

Bourn - L
Kepp - R
Crawford - L
Pence - R
Wallace - L
Johnson - R
Castro - L
Sanchez - R

Honest question: would that lineup hit 100 HR for a season?

[Matt]

Honest question: would that lineup hit 100 HR for a season?

Why not bring up Bogusevic and see what he can do in the majors? Crawford is not a shoe in just because he's from Houston.

[Navin R Johnson]

Why not bring up Bogusevic and see what he can do in the majors? Crawford is not a shoe in just because he's from Houston.

Does he have a ranch?

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Where did I "demand" anything? Where did I say that's "only" where money should be spent? Stop lying about what I have written. If you disagree with me, fine, but there's no need to be dishonest over an honest disagreement.

Sorry, I took it as a demand.  You simply stated what you wanted to see happen.  And you are right, we do disagree. 

[Matt]

Does he have a ranch?

I'm sure Carlos has some quarters for him to stay in and make it feel like he has a ranch. An outhouse maybe?

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Why not bring up Bogusevic and see what he can do in the majors? Crawford is not a shoe in just because he's from Houston.

I have to admit, I'm in that group dreaming of a Crawford/Bourn/Bourgois outfield, and not for the nostalgia aspect of former Houston area LL'ers playing together in the pros.  That would be one awesome outfield defense, from what I've seen.  Not to mention, that be some outstanding speed at the top of the lineup.  That said, I'm guessing the odds of this ever happening lie between slim and none. 

[Matt]

I have to admit, I'm in that group dreaming of a Crawford/Bourn/Bourgois outfield, and not for the nostalgia aspect of former Houston area LL'ers playing together in the pros.  That would be one awesome outfield defense, from what I've seen.  Not to mention, that be some outstanding speed at the top of the lineup.  That said, I'm guessing the odds of this ever happening lie between slim and none. 

I don't know if Bourgois will hit enough for a full time role but I do really like him on the team. Crawford is going to be highly sought after by contenders so I don't know if the hometown thing is going to quench his desire for a winning team which he's experienced the last few years. We'll have to see. Its definitely worth pursuing, if it happens then I guess you just figure out what to do with Carlos after that.  If he starts hitting maybe they'll be able to send him to an AL team to DH. Any case, I'd like to see Bogusevic get a shot this year. Pence hurts me.  Also if they did sign Crawford, wouldn't it be best to move him to RF and Pence to LF or does Crawford have no arm?

[Lurch]

Few quotes, but Levine posted a nice piece today on this.  Don't read the comments.  Don't read the comments.  Don't read the comments.

[pots]

Honest question: would that lineup hit 100 HR for a season?

no, I'd say about 90.  It could get 10 from the bench though and have 100. 

Thanksfully, HRs isn't a requirement for a good offense.  Tampa Bay and Minnesota are both in the top 5 in runs but yet the bottom half in HRs.

I'm not saying that lineup is going to be the best or anything, but along with good pitching and good defense, they could compete for a playoff spot with it.

[Matt]

no, I'd say about 90.  It could get 10 from the bench though and have 100. 

Thanksfully, HRs isn't a requirement for a good offense.  Tampa Bay and Minnesota are both in the top 5 in runs but yet the bottom half in HRs.

I'm not saying that lineup is going to be the best or anything, but along with good pitching and good defense, they could compete for a playoff spot with it.

The Angels previously had winning seasons with playoff appearances without a whole lot of power as well. I think they went out to find more power but I don't think that was the problem they had with getting far into the playoffs.

[MusicMan]

Thanksfully, HRs isn't a requirement for a good offense.  Tampa Bay and Minnesota are both in the top 5 in runs but yet the bottom half in HRs.

Last year's Mets are the only team to finish last in HR in the NL and even get as high as 11th in runs scored in the last 10 years.  All others were either last or next to last in runs scored.  I'm saying, in a roundabout way, that nobody should delude themselves thinking that's a lineup that can make the playoffs with anything but Clemens-Pettitte-Oswalt redux.

[JackAstro]

You folks keep saying $40+ million,  Not that it is that much better but according to the contract details I've see it's 18.5 per year (2011, 2012).  

It is, but I'm talking about the money owed from this point forward, which is about $43 million.

[Limey]

It is, but I'm talking about the money owed from this point forward, which is about $43 million.

[Tom Hicks] Release him, declare bankruptcy and leave him as an unsecured creditor. [/Tom Hicks]

[pots]

It is, but I'm talking about the money owed from this point forward, which is about $43 million.

but you replied to my quote which said in the offseason.  It would be ridiculous to release him now. 

[JackAstro]

How low can you go?  Defensively he costs you runs so subtract that from whatever he provides.


Hopefully you get someone to pick up 2-3 million a year so you only pay him 32-34 million not to play for you.  He'd be a fine DH for 2-3 million a year.

I don't disagree that the Astros would be in a better position with someone else in that spot, just trying to think of what's realistic with that salary burden. If he's anything other than a total catastrophe, I just don't see the club eating that big of a shit sandwich.

His April & May were so horrific, it masks that he's been OK for a while now. He's been hitting about .270 with decent pop since June, so there's reason to believe that he has something left in the tank. Again, not the best option for the position – and I'm sure he'd be gone in a heartbeat if there was a viable way to do it – but if he's shows anything like the last 2 months productivity over the next 2 months, I'd be really surprised to see him waived.

[JackAstro]

but you replied to my quote which said in the offseason.  It would be ridiculous to release him now. 

Sorry, didn't focus hard enough. Please amend 40+ to 37.

[pots]

I don't disagree that the Astros would be in a better position with someone else in that spot, just trying to think of what's realistic with that salary burden. If he's anything other than a total catastrophe, I just don't see the club eating that big of a shit sandwich.

His April & May were so horrific, it masks that he's been OK for a while now. He's been hitting about .270 with decent pop since June, so there's reason to believe that he has something left in the tank. Again, not the best option for the position – and I'm sure he'd be gone in a heartbeat if there was a viable way to do it – but if he's shows anything like the last 2 months productivity over the next 2 months, I'd be really surprised to see him waived.

Hopefully he continues to do well the rest of the year.  Then maybe it would be easier to trade him to the AL to DH.  Even so you'll be lucky to get a team to pick up 5 mil per.  It's a shit sandwich no doubt but his defense is sooooo bad.  His offense may regain some of its form but the defense is going to continue to get worse.  It's hard to imagine worse.

[Ty in Tampa]

Sorry, didn't focus hard enough. Please amend 40+ to 37.

Get in lockstep, man!

[Lurch]

Does he have a ranch?

Thought this was funny... end of second paragraph

[MusicMan]

His April & May were so horrific, it masks that he's been OK for a while now. He's been hitting about .270 with decent pop since June, so there's reason to believe that he has something left in the tank.

No, June was OK, but July was back to Sucksville:

.247/.273/.424

I think it bears repeating... according to his most similar batters at age 33 (from baseball-reference.com):

1.  Shawn Green - out of baseball at age 34
2.  Greg Luzinski - out of baseball at age 33
3.  Rafael Palmeiro - roider
4.  Derek Lee - has fallen off the same cliff this year
5.  Andre Dawson - HOF'er, freak of nature

This doesn't provide a lot of hope that this is just a blip.  It's the beginning of the end, and it's proving anyone who said that a 6-year deal was foolish, correct.

[pots]

Fun facts:

Astros' record in games which Carlos Lee has not played:
2007 - Played in every game (to be fair he pinch hit in 3 games; the Astros were 1-2 in those games)
2008 - 30-16
2009 - 2-0
2010 - 4-1

Total stats:
Overall Win Percetnage:     (278-311) - 47.2%
Percent Games with Lee:  91% (9% without)
Win percentage with Lee:   (242-294) - 45.1%
Win Percentage without Lee:  (36-17) - 67.9%

Probably as flukey as Wednesdays but...


Why stop there:
He played in all but 1 game of 2005 and 2006 - his team lost that game, and because they didn't start Carlos I'm sure

2001-2004 Whitesox:
Total Win %: 333-315 51.4%
Wtih Lee:      306-295 50.9%
without Lee     27-20  57.4%

Maybe he's just unlucky?

[hostros7]

Wasn't 2008 the year he was on an absolute tear before breaking his pinky?  Yeah, I'd say that stat is flukey.  There's a chance the Astros make the playoffs that year if he doesn't go down (finished 3.5 games out), potentially further deluding Drayton into believing the glory days are not over and Berkman and Oswalt are still on the team.  Game of inches indeed.

[Reuben]

Wasn't 2008 the year he was on an absolute tear before breaking his pinky?  Yeah, I'd say that stat is flukey.  There's a chance the Astros make the playoffs that year if he doesn't go down (finished 3.5 games out), potentially further deluding Drayton into believing the glory days are not over and Berkman and Oswalt are still on the team.  Game of inches indeed.

Wigginton went on an absolute tear right around the time Carlos got injured. Wasn't there something else that happened, though, that fucked up their playoff chances late in the season? Hmmm, what was that thing that happened?

[MusicMan]

Wasn't there something else that happened, though, that fucked up their playoff chances late in the season? Hmmm, what was that thing that happened?

No offense, but pleaseshutthefuckup.

/goes back to corner
/sucks thumb

[Reuben]

No offense, but pleaseshutthefuckup.

/goes back to corner
/sucks thumb

None taken, you are completely justified in saying so. Don't know what came over me.

[JackAstro]

No, June was OK, but July was back to Sucksville:

.247/.273/.424

I think it bears repeating... according to his most similar batters at age 33 (from baseball-reference.com):

1.  Shawn Green - out of baseball at age 34
2.  Greg Luzinski - out of baseball at age 33
3.  Rafael Palmeiro - roider
4.  Derek Lee - has fallen off the same cliff this year
5.  Andre Dawson - HOF'er, freak of nature

This doesn't provide a lot of hope that this is just a blip.  It's the beginning of the end, and it's proving anyone who said that a 6-year deal was foolish, correct.

He and Dawson have pretty similar frames, so let's go with that one.

[Reuben]

He and Dawson have pretty similar frames, so let's go with that one.

You mean they both have endoskeletons?

[Twoniner]

I don't see why everyone is so convinced that the Astros can't compete next year.  You replace Lee with Crawford in the off season and you have a solid lineup:

Bourn - L
Kepp - R
Crawford - L
Pence - R
Wallace - L
Johnson - R
Castro - L
Sanchez - R

Your going to have to eat at least 17 times 2 fro Lee just to unload him.  And you have to consider 6 million for Oswalt.  but that would seemingly leave 15-16 mil open for Crawford and still keep the payroll around 80 million.

ZERO chance that is not one of the 3-4 worst offenses in the National League.

[Gizzmonic]

ZERO chance that is not one of the 3-4 worst offenses in the National League.

Yeah, I dunno about this "refreshing" thing.  Seems to me they could end up getting caught in between again.