for what it's worth...

[jnh]

I'm generally a rational guy, but I give myself a little leeway for delusions when it comes to being a fan.

2010, after 36 games, Astros are 13-23

2005, after 36 games, Astros were… you guessed it…13-23
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/schedule.php?y=2005&t=HOU

[subnuclear]

I seem to remember Clemens bitching about run support, though I can't remember which year.

In any case, if Kevin shows up here making predictions, I'm never reading this website again.  That shit is not right.

[Rebel Jew]

I'm generally a rational guy, but I give myself a little leeway for delusions when it comes to being a fan.

2010, after 36 games, Astros are 13-23

2005, after 36 games, Astros were… you guessed it…13-23
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/schedule.php?y=2005&t=HOU

if lee & berkman start hitting, and they can't do any worse, then you could maybe see them approach .500.  with the solid bullpen, solid defense, and solid 1-3 starters, this year's astros at least have a path to victory on any given night if they can somehow scratch out a lead by the middle innings.  but the '05 team had dominant 1-3 starters, an awesome bench, and not a manzella, feliz, quintero, or matsui to be found among the everyday lineup (although didn't chris burke get a bunch of starts in the outfield that year?).

[strosrays]

The 1962 Astros Colt .45s were 13-23 after 36 games, and finished 64-96, 8th in the then 10-team National League.

The 1969 Astros were 13-23 after 36 games, and finished 81-81, 5th in the the 6-team National League West.

The 1975 Astros were 12-24 after 36 games, and finished 64-97, 6th in the the 6-team National League West.

The 1990 Astros were 13-23 after 36 games, and finished 75-87, 4th in the the 6-team National League West.

The 1991 Astros were 14-22 after 36 games, and finished 65-97, 6th in the the 6-team National League West.

-------------------------

1.) 2005 was a special year; and it still took Nostro Kevin booming out his prophesy from on high to make it happen.

2.) The 2005 team got off to a bad start and was playing below their level of talent.  This year's motley crew is probably about where it should be.  I saw somewhere they are a few games over their projected record at this point, according to their Pythagorean W-L (which I'll admit, as an 'after the fact' statistic, isn't really relevant.)  Anyway, the 2010 Astros could actually be worse than what they've shown so far.  I'd guess there is at least twice the chance they finish something like 58-104, instead of storming back to take the NL Wild Card.

3.) Trum's points are quite relevant.  The 2005 team was far better than this one, there is no comparison.

[JaneDoe]

The 1962 Astros Colt .45s were 13-23 after 36 games, and finished 64-96, 8th in the then 10-team National League.

The 1969 Astros were 13-23 after 36 games, and finished 81-81, 5th in the the 6-team National League West.

The 1975 Astros were 12-24 after 36 games, and finished 64-97, 6th in the the 6-team National League West.

The 1990 Astros were 13-23 after 36 games, and finished 75-87, 4th in the the 6-team National League West.

The 1991 Astros were 14-22 after 36 games, and finished 65-97, 6th in the the 6-team National League West.

-------------------------

Oh, geez, don't confuse the issue with real stats.

1.) 2005 was a special year; and it still took Nostro Kevin booming out his prophesy from on high to make it happen.

2.) The 2005 team got off to a bad start and was playing below their level of talent.  This year's motley crew is probably about where it should be.  I saw somewhere they are a few games over their projected record at this point, according to their Pythagorean W-L (which I'll admit, as an 'after the fact' statistic, isn't really relevant.)  Anyway, the 2010 Astros could actually be worse than what they've shown so far.  I'd guess there is at least twice the chance they finish something like 58-104, instead of storming back to take the NL Wild Card.

3.) Trum's points are quite relevant.  The 2005 team was far better than this one, there is no comparison.

This right here. Squared.

[subnuclear]

2005-Pos-Avg-OBP-SLG
Chris Burke LF-0.248-0.309-0.368
Morgan Ensberg 3B-0.283-0.388-0.557
Jason Lane RF-0.267-0.316-0.499
Lance Berkman 1B-0.293-0.411-0.524
Willy Taveras CF-0.291-0.325-0.341
Craig Biggio 2B-0.264-0.325-0.468

2010-Pos-Avg-OBP-SLG-(2009-Avg-OBP-SLG)
Carlos Lee LF-0.189-0.239-0.273 (0.300-0.343-0.489)
Pedro Feliz 3B-0.220-0.244-0.305 (0.266-0.308-0.386)
Hunter Pence RF-0.248-0.265-0.419 (0.282-0.346-0.472)
Lance Berkman 1B-0.244-0.359-0.474 (0.274-0.399-0.509)
Michael Bourn CF-0.287-0.370-0.357 (0.285-0.354-0.384)
Jeff Keppinger 2B-0.262-0.327-0.350 (0.256-0.320-0.387)
Kazuo Matsui 2B-0.152-0.211-0.167 (0.250-0.302-0.357)

Carlos of 2010 is not good, however the Carlos of 2009 was a lot better than Chris Burke.  Pedro Feliz is having a terrible year, but he's never had as good a year as Ensberg did in 2005.  Pence of 2010 is also terrible, but Pence of 2009 was probably as good or a little better than Jason Lane.  Berkman has started off slow, but Berkman of 2009 was only a little worse than than Berkman of 2005.  Michael Bourn is a little better offensively than Taveras.  Matsui is terrible this year, Keppinger is ok, but neither have Biggio's power. 

So even if Pence, Lee and Berkman go back to their 2009 selves, I would still think the 2005 team is a little better offensively, due to Ensberg's career year and Biggio's power numbers.

Oswalt-Myers-Rodriguez-Norris-Paulino isn't Clemens-Pettitte-Oswalt-Backe-Rodriguez, but its not horrible either.  Lidge-Qualls-Wheeler was better than Lindstrom-Lyon-Sampson, but its also not horrible.

[Rebel Jew]

Berkman of 2009 was only a little worse than than Berkman of 2005.

Berkman of 2005 was a feared slugger who was routinely pitched around.  Berkman of 2009-2010 is a couple of $5 footlongs away from a permanent vacation.  

[Reuben]

Berkman of 2005 was a feared slugger who was routinely pitched around.  Berkman of 2009-2010 is a couple of $5 footlongs away from a permanent vacation.  

You guys are missing the real crux of the comparison, and therefore the whole issue, here. It all hinges on the offense provided by the SS and catcher hitting 7-8 in the lineup. Who cares what the 3-4-5 hitters do? Give me a good-hitting SS and catcher to anchor the bottom of the lineup and I'll show you a team ready to make a massive comeback and take the division.

[Wild Dog]

You guys are missing the real crux of the comparison, and therefore the whole issue, here. It all hinges on the offense provided by the SS and catcher hitting 7-8 in the lineup. Who cares what the 3-4-5 hitters do? Give me a good-hitting SS and catcher to anchor the bottom of the lineup and I'll show you a team ready to make a massive comeback and take the division.

I agree with you 100%.  You spawned a trivia question today.

[juliogotay]

Berkman of 2005 was a feared slugger who was routinely pitched around.  Berkman of 2009-2010 is a couple of $5 footlongs away from a permanent vacation.  

Berkman is getting older, as we alll are, but he is not out of shape. This is silly.

[strosrays]

2005-Pos-Avg-OBP-SLG
Chris Burke LF-0.248-0.309-0.368
Morgan Ensberg 3B-0.283-0.388-0.557
Jason Lane RF-0.267-0.316-0.499
Lance Berkman 1B-0.293-0.411-0.524
Willy Taveras CF-0.291-0.325-0.341
Craig Biggio 2B-0.264-0.325-0.468

2010-Pos-Avg-OBP-SLG-(2009-Avg-OBP-SLG)
Carlos Lee LF-0.189-0.239-0.273 (0.300-0.343-0.489)
Pedro Feliz 3B-0.220-0.244-0.305 (0.266-0.308-0.386)
Hunter Pence RF-0.248-0.265-0.419 (0.282-0.346-0.472)
Lance Berkman 1B-0.244-0.359-0.474 (0.274-0.399-0.509)
Michael Bourn CF-0.287-0.370-0.357 (0.285-0.354-0.384)
Jeff Keppinger 2B-0.262-0.327-0.350 (0.256-0.320-0.387)
Kazuo Matsui 2B-0.152-0.211-0.167 (0.250-0.302-0.357)

Carlos of 2010 is not good, however the Carlos of 2009 was a lot better than Chris Burke.  Pedro Feliz is having a terrible year, but he's never had as good a year as Ensberg did in 2005.  Pence of 2010 is also terrible, but Pence of 2009 was probably as good or a little better than Jason Lane.  Berkman has started off slow, but Berkman of 2009 was only a little worse than than Berkman of 2005.  Michael Bourn is a little better offensively than Taveras.  Matsui is terrible this year, Keppinger is ok, but neither have Biggio's power. 

So even if Pence, Lee and Berkman go back to their 2009 selves, I would still think the 2005 team is a little better offensively, due to Ensberg's career year and Biggio's power numbers.

Oswalt-Myers-Rodriguez-Norris-Paulino isn't Clemens-Pettitte-Oswalt-Backe-Rodriguez, but its not horrible either.  Lidge-Qualls-Wheeler was better than Lindstrom-Lyon-Sampson, but its also not horrible.

I agree with this mostly, except I don't think 2010 Bourn is a little better than 2005 Willy T., offensively.  He's a lot better.

[Rebel Jew]

Berkman is getting older, as we alll are, but he is not out of shape. This is silly.

he's not fat, but i wouldn't say he's in great shape either

[Mr. Happy]

Berkman of 2005 was a feared slugger who was routinely pitched around.  Berkman of 2009-2010 is a couple of $5 footlongs away from a permanent vacation.  

I agree. Berkman is really showing signs of aging. You're not saying that he's out of shape; he's just at the edge. I think that Carlos Lee, even with the home run today, is over that edge.

[TheWizard]

Berkman is getting older, as we alll are, but he is not out of shape. This is silly.

He may not be fat, but he isn't the feared hitter he was in 2005 either. I'll now slip out of my Captain Obvious costume.

[juliogotay]

He may not be fat, but he isn't the feared hitter he was in 2005 either. I'll now slip out of my Captain Obvious costume.

More a factor of age than anything else. The bat gets slower. The eyes aren't as sharp. His conditioning is not noticeably different than five years ago.

[das]

More a factor of age than anything else. The bat gets slower. The eyes aren't as sharp. His conditioning is not noticeably different than five years ago.

This is why I like SnS so much. You guys can slice, dice and analyze a steaming pile of poo better than anyone I know.