Carl Crawford

[juliogotay]

Enters the last year of his contract in 2010. Hmmm. From Houston. Good buddies with Bourne. Astros seemingly looking to become more athletic and faster.
Already has a section of seating named for him. At 28 going into the prime of his career one would think. They would have to move Carlos to free up salary and a spot. Would he make Houston a better team that Carlos? Is it ridiculous to think this could happen?

[toddthebod]

Outfield isn't the Astros problem. 

[OldBlevins]

Outfield isn't the Astros problem. 

Maybe they could move Lee to third base, now that Bagwell's gone.

[HudsonHawk]

They would have to move Carlos to free up salary and a spot.

Can Crawford not play RF?

[Ty in Tampa]

I would be surprised if CC is not extended at some point this year. Of course, I'm only going by what the Rays have expressed and that Crawford has said he would like to stay.

[astrosfan76]

Enters the last year of his contract in 2010. Hmmm. From Houston. Good buddies with Bourne. Astros seemingly looking to become more athletic and faster.
Already has a section of seating named for him. At 28 going into the prime of his career one would think. They would have to move Carlos to free up salary and a spot. Would he make Houston a better team that Carlos? Is it ridiculous to think this could happen?

He would make the club exciting.  Having Bourn and Crawford would give opposing catchers fits and the overall defense would be great.  The problem with filling LF with a guy like Crawford, though is that you have to provide pop elsewhere.  Third base is a position where the offense could be upgraded, but we're not likely to see a slugger at that position any time soon, based on the current composition.  Plus, it is possible that our only other real slugger could retire one year later, in which case, Pence would become our big bat.  We can always sign a bat to replace Berkman's, which we'll have to do eventually, but quality at that position doesn't come cheaply.  Gonzalez, Fielder and Howard are tentatively set to become free agents after '11, but all could command $20M annually.  I doubt all three make it to free agency, either.  

[HudsonHawk]

Plus, it is possible that our only other real slugger could retire one year later, in which case, Pence would become our big bat.  

If Pence is the Astros' "big bat", it will be one very long season(s).

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Can Crawford not play RF?

My understanding, having not watched him personally, is that he has the range and ability to cover CF but not the arm.  I assume that rules out RF. 

[Ty in Tampa]

My understanding, having not watched him personally, is that he has the range and ability to cover CF but not the arm.  I assume that rules out RF. 

Correct. This is why he's the Rays' LF.

[juliogotay]

I would be surprised if CC is not extended at some point this year. Of course, I'm only going by what the Rays have expressed and that Crawford has said he would like to stay.

You have access to information, being in-market, no doubt the rest of us don't. I didn't know his attitude towards FAgency. MLB Net was talking about the Rays last night and gave the impression that the club didn't have the $$ to compete for Crawford and Pena who are both in their contract years if they went the FA route. They surmised they may trade one or both during the season if they had not extended them.

[Ty in Tampa]

You have access to information, being in-market, no doubt the rest of us don't. I didn't know his attitude towards FAgency. MLB Net was talking about the Rays last night and gave the impression that the club didn't have the $$ to compete for Crawford and Pena who are both in their contract years if they went the FA route. They surmised they may trade one or both during the season if they had not extended them.

As I said, I would be surprised, but it could happen. If it were between Crawford and Pena, I'd think they'd try to keep CC. He a fan favorite and the Rays need fans.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

As I said, I would be surprised, but it could happen. If it were between Crawford and Pena, I'd think they'd try to keep CC. He a fan favorite and the Rays need fans.

He's an outstanding player too.  But 15mil/yr is steep for a 2-hole hitter, even as good as he is, for anyone other than the Yankees or Red Sox.  Stellar defense in LF is nice but honestly, I don't see how he replaces Lee in this lineup unless you put Crawford in the 3 spot, pushing Berkman to cleanup, and insert someone else in the 2-spot.  That exposes you to lefty specialists, as has been dissected extensively in the past, so not sure Crawford is a real fit here in Houston (just my 2 cents). 

But, if he has a ranch in the area, as they say, juneberno.

[HudsonHawk]

My understanding, having not watched him personally, is that he has the range and ability to cover CF but not the arm.  I assume that rules out RF. 

Well, Pence doesn't really have the arm for RF either, but that doesn't stop him from trying.  At any rate, I'm not that familiar with his defense, but if the Astros were interested in swapping out someone for Crawford, I'd prefer it be Pence rather than Lee.

[juliogotay]

Well, Pence doesn't really have the arm for RF either, but that doesn't stop him from trying.  At any rate, I'm not that familiar with his defense, but if the Astros were interested in swapping out someone for Crawford, I'd prefer it be Pence rather than Lee.

I would prefer Pence leaving as well because Crawford isn't really an RBI guy. If TB were to deal Crawford at mid-year because they could not extend him, Pence may look good as part of a deal. The problem being obviously that he could still go FA and leave Houston with nothing in return for, perhaps, their best bargaining chip. Signing Crawford would really be problematical with Lee's salary still on the books. Crawford is probably not a realistic scenario.

[HudsonHawk]

Signing Crawford would really be problematical with Lee's salary still on the books. Crawford is probably not a realistic scenario.

I don't see where signing Crawford would be a problem if Mclane wanted him.  He has the money.  Has shown he's willing to spend the money.  I don't know if they want him or not, but if they did, money won't hold up a deal.

[David in Jackson]

Enters the last year of his contract in 2010. Hmmm. From Houston. Good buddies with Bourne. Astros seemingly looking to become more athletic and faster.
Already has a section of seating named for him. At 28 going into the prime of his career one would think. They would have to move Carlos to free up salary and a spot. Would he make Houston a better team that Carlos? Is it ridiculous to think this could happen?

Whenever I read that the Astros ought to pursue a player because he has Texas connections, I'm immediately on my guard (Jennings, WIlliams).  This shouldn't be a factor at all.   

Moving Carlos would be difficult, it seems to me.

[juliogotay]

Whenever I read that the Astros ought to pursue a player because he has Texas connections, I'm immediately on my guard (Jennings, WIlliams).  This shouldn't be a factor at all.   

Moving Carlos would be difficult, it seems to me.

It should not be a factor in whom the Astros choose to pursue. It could well be a factor in a player wanting to sign with Houston. I don't think trading for Jennings had anything to do with where he was from.
Williams Who? Mitch? Again, a trade and I don't recall his being a Texan as a factor.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Woody Williams, Houston native.

Jason Jennings, Baylor grad.

[Taras Bulba]

Crawford doesn't have a ranch.  But, he has a pool and a pond.

[austro]

Woody Williams, Houston native.

Jason Jennings, Baylor grad.

Drabek.

[MikeyBoy]

Drabek.

Clemens
Pettitte
Bourn
Berkman

[Taras Bulba]

Hampton (Memorial High Parking Lot)

Oswalt (Vidor East)

[juliogotay]

Drabek.

Swindell.

[EasTexAstro]

Kent?

[strosrays]

The problem with filling LF with a guy like Crawford, though is that you have to provide pop elsewhere.

Well, he's not Lee, but Crawford isn't exactly punchless, either.  He's been over .450 slugging almost every year since he became a regular (in 2009 - 28 2Bs, 8 3Bs, 15 HRs), playing in a hitter-neutral park.  He's not just some scrawny speed-and-defense guy.

[astrosfan76]

Well, he's not Lee, but Crawford isn't exactly punchless, either.  He's been over .450 slugging almost every year since he became a regular (in 2009 - 28 2Bs, 8 3Bs, 15 HRs), playing in a hitter-neutral park.  He's not just some scrawny speed-and-defense guy.

He's not Roger Cedeno, but if you commit a significant salary to him, you're going to have to be content with a club built more around small-ball.  Tropicana is more of a neutral park overall, but is a better park to hit doubles and much better to hit triples than MMP.  So, there may be some fluctuation there.  As for homeruns, I'm not sure if he favors pulling the ball or spreads it, but it wouldn't be a stretch to think he could hit 20 playing half his games at MMP.  With a possible drop in doubles and triples and an uptick in HR, he'd probably be in the same neighborhood for SLG%. 

With defense factored in, he could be a comparable overall LF to Lee. The problem, though is the way the offense begins to shape up.  Gone is the consistent .300/30/100 slugger.  The next year, you could lose the only other consistent slugger you have.  We'll see what kind of player Pence is going to become, but even if he does become a 30HR guy, he could be the only 30HR guy we have (who's much less trustworthy than his predecessors).  As a supporting player, Crawford would be a solid addition.  But, as an 8-figure player, he's a little hard to fit in unless we can find power elsewhere cheaply.   

[austro]

I must have missed the announcement that Berkman is leaving after next year. What's up?

[Reuben]

I must have missed the announcement that Berkman is leaving after next year. What's up?

The Astros have an expensive option, IIRC, for 2011 so theoretically if Berkman has another offensive decline they may not pick it up. I would think he'd be back on a renegotiated deal at the very least, though.

[astrosfan76]

I must have missed the announcement that Berkman is leaving after next year. What's up?

Berkman has talked about retiring after his contract is up for a while.  Because this scenario is talking about signing Crawford next offseason, saying Berkman could be gone the following season would mean after 2011.  The only way I see Berkman's option not being picked up is if he signs an extension.  But, unless he has a change of heart (which he has wavered on), 2011 could be his last season.

[HudsonHawk]

Tropicana is more of a neutral park overall, but is a better park to hit doubles and much better to hit triples than MMP.

I'm not sure how you measure it, but I can't imagine a better park for triples than MMPUS.

We'll see what kind of player Pence is going to become, but even if he does become a 30HR guy, he could be the only 30HR guy we have (who's much less trustworthy than his predecessors).

We've seen what kind of player Pence is.  He's a .280/25/75, mediocre defense kind of guy.  If you think he's going to be the hitter that Lee is, let alone Berkman, you're in for a huge disappointment.  I'm not sure why there is this continuing expectation that Pence is going to blossom into an elite player.  His offense could easily be replaced by Crawford, and I suspect his defense could as well.

[Jacksonian]

I'm not sure why there is this continuing expectation that Pence is going to blossom into an elite player. 

An exceptional first impression.

[austro]

An exceptional first impression.

And yet nobody is drooling over Towles. Pence has some inexplicable aura that makes (some) people believe he's going to be more than he's shown. But I think HH's projection is just about right. He's not a bad guy to have on your team, but he's not going to carry you to the promised land, either.

[astrosfan76]

I'm not sure how you measure it, but I can't imagine a better park for triples than MMPUS.

I looked at ESPN's Park Factors, which measures how stats measure up at home vs. on the road.  While there is some fluctuation, in an average season from '06-'09, Tropicana had a Park Factor for triples of 1.334, with 1 being neutral.  MMP, on the other hand, averaged 1.108.  Since it is a rate stat that compares home versus road, teams that hit more triples don't necessarily have an advantage.  

We've seen what kind of player Pence is.  He's a .280/25/75, mediocre defense kind of guy.  If you think he's going to be the hitter that Lee is, let alone Berkman, you're in for a huge disappointment.  I'm not sure why there is this continuing expectation that Pence is going to blossom into an elite player.  His offense could easily be replaced by Crawford, and I suspect his defense could as well.

If Pence showed the same kind of consistency he showed when he was laying off the sliders earlier in the season, he could be a little better than that.  But, until he does, he is what you say he is.  Anyway, I was not implying that he could be the hitter that Lee or Berkman are, just that he has the potential to hit 30 HR.  Having him as "the man" on the club scares me, which is why I'm concerned about losing Lee and Berkman in successive seasons without replacing them with another slugger.  

I would not argue against Crawford's ability to replace Pence, but since the discussion has been about trading Lee next year and replacing him with Crawford, that's what I have been discussing.  Without shedding Lee's salary, Crawford doesn't fit.  

[HudsonHawk]

If Pence showed the same kind of consistency he showed when he was laying off the sliders earlier in the season, he could be a little better than that.  But, until he does, he is what you say he is.  Anyway, I was not implying that he could be the hitter that Lee or Berkman are, just that he has the potential to hit 30 HR.  Having him as "the man" on the club scares me, which is why I'm concerned about losing Lee and Berkman in successive seasons without replacing them with another slugger.

If he could do a lot of things he could be Ted Williams.  The point is, he's shown no indication that he can.  I think expecting him to suddenly become something he's not is foolish. 

I would not argue against Crawford's ability to replace Pence, but since the discussion has been about trading Lee next year and replacing him with Crawford, that's what I have been discussing.  Without shedding Lee's salary, Crawford doesn't fit.  

Well, I've been discussing why, if you want Crawford, not swap him for Pence, seeing as a) it'd make the club better and b) salary is not an issue.

[HudsonHawk]

And yet nobody is drooling over Towles. Pence has some inexplicable aura that makes (some) people believe he's going to be more than he's shown. But I think HH's projection is just about right. He's not a bad guy to have on your team, but he's not going to carry you to the promised land, either.

Pence is not a bad guy to have around.  He can be a productive hitter for you, even a productive RBI man, in the right spot.  The right spot being the 5 or 6 hole.  He's not a Lance Berkman.  Not by any stretch of any definition.  He is what he is.  I just wish people would see that and stop with the nonsense.

[MusicMan]

Pence is not a bad guy to have around.  He can be a productive hitter for you, even a productive RBI man, in the right spot.  The right spot being the 5 or 6 hole.  He's not a Lance Berkman.  Not by any stretch of any definition.  He is what he is.  I just wish people would see that and stop with the nonsense.

Reggie Sanders 2.0

[strosrays]

And yet nobody is drooling over Towles. Pence has some inexplicable aura that makes (some) people believe he's going to be more than he's shown.

One wants to be a clown.  The other already sort of is.

[Jacksonian]

And yet nobody is drooling over Towles. Pence has some inexplicable aura that makes (some) people believe he's going to be more than he's shown.

Pence didn't follow up the great offensive work in his first year with complete crap the way Towles did.

IMO, Pence's "aura" is tied to his aw shucks attitude and apparent willingness to go about his business with reckless abandon.  If he were a dick in public I think fans would be screaming for him to go.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Let me get this straight.  You want to get rid of the player that is responsible for giving us "Hunter's Lodge" at home games?  Are you out of your gourd?  Next, folks will want to get rid of The El Caballitos or the Little Pumas.   Seriously people, why do you think anyone goes to a baseball game?  It's about the EXPERIENCE.  

[Andyzipp]

One wants to be a clown.  The other already sort of is.

But a sad clown...

[Tralfaz]

 Moving Carlos would be difficult.

Just ask Adam Everett.

[astrosfan76]

If he could do a lot of things he could be Ted Williams.  The point is, he's shown no indication that he can.  I think expecting him to suddenly become something he's not is foolish.

Whatever.  25 homeruns or 30 homeruns, we both agree that the club will suck if he's our big slugger. 

Well, I've been discussing why, if you want Crawford, not swap him for Pence, seeing as a) it'd make the club better and b) salary is not an issue.

With Crawford moving to RF?  Not that Pence has a great arm (though his release does play up), but Crawford's arm would be a liability.  He's better off in CF or LF, but if you move Lee to RF, you're giving Lee more ground to cover.  Aside from that, he is an upgrade.

How is salary not an issue?  Crawford will make $10M in '10 and will get at least that much on the market.  If you don't trade Lee, you still have his $18.5M through '12, Oswalt potentially through '12 at $16M, and Berkman through at least '11 at $15M.  Assuming payroll doesn't go back up, that could be 2/3 of your payroll between those 4 guys.  That's before Wandy, Lyon, Bourn, or any of the other guys.  Granted, a lot of that will be coming off the books not too far down the road, but fitting him would likely require backloading, which Drayton has been opposed to in recent years.  

[HudsonHawk]

With Crawford moving to RF?  Not that Pence has a great arm (though his release does play up), but Crawford's arm would be a liability.  He's better off in CF or LF, but if you move Lee to RF, you're giving Lee more ground to cover.  Aside from that, he is an upgrade.

Pence's arm is a liability.  Don't know much about Crawford's, but it's not like they've got Roberto Clemente in RF to begin with.

How is salary not an issue

Because Mclane has the money, and has demonstrated that he's willing to spend it.

Assuming payroll doesn't go back up, that could be 2/3 of your payroll between those 4 guys.  

Why would you assume that?

[Lurch]

Why would you assume that?

Dude?!  Do you not read JdJO?  WORST. OWNER. EVER.

[juliogotay]

Whatever.  25 homeruns or 30 homeruns, we both agree that the club will suck if he's our big slugger. 

With Crawford moving to RF?  Not that Pence has a great arm (though his release does play up), but Crawford's arm would be a liability.  He's better off in CF or LF, but if you move Lee to RF, you're giving Lee more ground to cover.  Aside from that, he is an upgrade.

How is salary not an issue?  Crawford will make $10M in '10 and will get at least that much on the market.  If you don't trade Lee, you still have his $18.5M through '12, Oswalt potentially through '12 at $16M, and Berkman through at least '11 at $15M.  Assuming payroll doesn't go back up, that could be 2/3 of your payroll between those 4 guys.  That's before Wandy, Lyon, Bourn, or any of the other guys.  Granted, a lot of that will be coming off the books not too far down the road, but fitting him would likely require backloading, which Drayton has been opposed to in recent years.  

If the Astros are considering rebuilding, which they haven't publicy acknowledged, having Crawford in LF rather than Lee makes a lot of sense. Several years younger, best years hopefully ahead of him, substantial upgrade defensively in LF., can run like the dickens. He is not a replacement for Lee's RBIs. There would be a void in the 4-hole for sure that would have to be filled somehow. But, that day's coming anyway. I don't see anyone in the minors that is going to fill that void unless it is Gaston and there is no concensus that he is a legitimate everyday middle-of-the-order answer. He would only be a piece, albeit a very big piece, of the puzzle. If Drayton is really trying to sell the team, the club becomes more attractive on paper with a Lee-for-Crawford switch.

[AtascAstro]

You know it's a shame that the proper appreciation of Hunter Pence has been ruined by Astros marketing and bandwagon fans.  If he wasn't made such a big deal of, I think I would get more enjoyment out of watching a guy with average major league talent who clearly enjoys and respects the game.  He plays with the kind of enthusiasm that we expect to see, but rarely do, in men who have the opportunity to make millions of dollars playing baseball.

Thanks Pam.

[Noe]

Just ask Adam Everett.

Nominated.  POTV (Post of the Void)