Elias rankings

[MusicMan]

MLB Trade Rumors just put out their estimates of the Elias free agent rankings.

Relevant Astros:
Type A - Tejada, Valverde, Hawkins
Type B - Pudge, Brocail

I think it's pretty clear that they will non-tender Brocail, but they should offer to all three type A guys.

[drew corleone]

How would offering Hawkins affect what it would take to keep him if they didn't offer?

[MusicMan]

CAn they even re-sign him if they do not offer?

[BudGirl]

I thought they could.  But, it is a time after or right around opening day?

[Guinness]

I thought they could.  But, it is a time after or right around opening day?

I thought it was some time in May?

[BudGirl]

I thought it was some time in May?

I'm sure someone like HH will come in with all the correct dates, but that sounds right.

[MusicMan]

I thought it was some time in May?

Apparently that provision was eliminated in the most recent CBA.

[JackAstro]

How would offering Hawkins affect what it would take to keep him if they didn't offer?

It's not related - last year, the club declined to offer Brocail, then signed him to a one-year extension in December.

[drew corleone]

From some website I found via Google.

A club receives compensation if it loses a free agent before December 2. (Free Agent Compensation is discussed at length below.)

By December 1st, each Major League team must decide whether to offer salary arbitration to their former players who have filed for free agency. A club not offering arbitration may continue to negotiate with the player but does not receive compensation if he signs with another club.

By December 7th, a player who has been offered arbitration must accept or reject. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his club’s 40-man roster. The player and club may continue to negotiate before the above-described February arbitration hearing. If the player rejects the offer, he may continue to negotiate with any of the Major League Baseball's 30 clubs.

A free agent who signs a Major League contract may not be traded without his written consent before June 15th of the following season.

JA- I guess what I meant is: would not offering arbitration mean they could re-sign him at a lower price than if they did offer? And would the risk of paying more via arbitration cause them to not do so? Further, would teams be less likely to sign him knowing they would lose a first-round draft pick?

[JackAstro]

From some website I found via Google.
JA- I guess what I meant is: would not offering arbitration mean they could re-sign him at a lower price than if they did offer? And would the risk of paying more via arbitration cause them to not do so? Further, would teams be less likely to sign him knowing they would lose a first-round draft pick?

Gotcha. I guess my answer would be a shoulder shrug and "maybe, maybe not". I'm terrible at guessing about arbitration, anyway.

[accougars]

MLB Trade Rumors just put out their estimates of the Elias free agent rankings.

Relevant Astros:
Type A - Tejada, Valverde, Hawkins
Type B - Pudge, Brocail

I think it's pretty clear that they will non-tender Brocail, but they should offer to all three type A guys.

I respectfully disagree on Tejada. If you offer and he accepts, than he is going to get something close to 10 million for 2010. I would not want to pay that much for him at this point. I think his value is closer to the 5-7 million dollar range.

[Reuben]

Gotcha. I guess my answer would be a shoulder shrug and "maybe, maybe not". I'm terrible at guessing about arbitration, anyway.

I'll offer the very tiny amount that I (think I) know about arbitration/FA compensation. A player's salary cannot be reduced by more than a small % through arbitration, and in almost all cases, will stay the same or go up. Therefore, if the Astros offered, and Tejada accepted, he would almost certainly be awarded something close to his 2008 salary (around $13 mil). Given the blow the FA market has taken with the economy, it seems unlikely that Tejada, despite his success this year, would get anything close to $13mil/year on the open market, so he would almost certainly accept arb if offered.

Ditto with Hawkins, again IMHO. There were some relievers last year -Juan Cruz comes to mind- who were listed as Type A, and even though he declined arbitration after the D-backs offered, Cruz had trouble finding a job because teams were unwilling to lose a 1st-round pick just to sign a middle reliever. The same thing happened with Varitek, Bora$$ couldn't generate a bidding war for him because teams would've lost their 1st-round pick.

Type B FA's don't cost the signing team any of their own draft picks- the team that loses them is awarded an extra, sandwich-round pick. So teams would not hesitate to sign Pudge, for instance, if the wanted him, regardless of whether the Astros offered him arb.

So my guess, based on what the Astros did last year with their arb-eligibles, is they'll offer arb to Valverde, and maybe Pudge, but that's it. Tejada seems to like it here, so maybe they'll re-sign him to play 3B?

[Jacksonian]

MLB Trade Rumors just put out their estimates of the Elias free agent rankings.

Relevant Astros:
Type A - Tejada, Valverde, Hawkins
Type B - Pudge, Brocail

I think it's pretty clear that they will non-tender Brocail, but they should offer to all three type A guys.

It's pretty clear now that offering arb is not, or at best only partly, a baseball decision.  McLane will offer only as the possiblities fit into his estimated revenue.  Recall they intended, prior to the economic collapse, to offer arb to Wolf last year then didn't when what he would have cost did not fit into the Astros estimated revenue.

[Reuben]

It's pretty clear now that offering arb is not, or at best only partly, a baseball decision.  McLane will offer only as the possiblities fit into his estimated revenue.  Recall they intended, prior to the economic collapse, to offer arb to Wolf last year then didn't when what he would have cost did not fit into the Astros estimated revenue.

Good point. In that context, they may not even offer Valverde, although it seems like he will almost certainly find a 2-3 year deal for around $10-12 mil on the open market.

[Jacksonian]

Good point. In that context, they may not even offer Valverde, although it seems like he will almost certainly find a 2-3 year deal for around $10-12 mil on the open market.

I was thinking Valverde would be the only one they'd offer, precisely because he's the most likely to get a long-term deal paying him more per year than he's earning now.

[accougars]

I'll offer the very tiny amount that I (think I) know about arbitration/FA compensation. A player's salary cannot be reduced by more than a small % through arbitration, and in almost all cases, will stay the same or go up. Therefore, if the Astros offered, and Tejada accepted, he would almost certainly be awarded something close to his 2008 salary (around $13 mil). Given the blow the FA market has taken with the economy, it seems unlikely that Tejada, despite his success this year, would get anything close to $13mil/year on the open market, so he would almost certainly accept arb if offered.

I think the percentage you refer to is 25%. That is off the top of my head.

[accougars]

I was thinking Valverde would be the only one they'd offer, precisely because he's the most likely to get a long-term deal paying him more per year than he's earning now.

I would think Hawkins would get offered as well. If he is a type A, the team would get two picks as compensation. If he is a Type B, he is more likely to decline and get more money from another team. If he were to accept, you get a solid setup man who can close for you for about 3 million or so (rough estimate of what he would make in arbitration).

[pots]

My guess, Hawkins and Valverde are a yes.  Hawkins for the need and Valverde due to the no chance factor.   Though that could depend on Hawkins health. 

Tejada, no due to the 8 figure salary he'd get and being better off trying to sign him for maybe a 2 year deal at third for much less money.

Pudge maybe.  Brocail is likely to retire, so no.

[JackAstro]

I would think Hawkins would get offered as well. If he is a type A, the team would get two picks as compensation. If he is a Type B, he is more likely to decline and get more money from another team. If he were to accept, you get a solid setup man who can close for you for about 3 million or so (rough estimate of what he would make in arbitration).

Just curious, what makes you think Hawkins would be taking a pay cut from what the Astros just signed him for (when the economy was already in the toilet)?

[Jacksonian]

My guess, Hawkins and Valverde are a yes.  Hawkins for the need and Valverde due to the no chance factor.   Though that could depend on Hawkins health. 

Tejada, no due to the 8 figure salary he'd get and being better off trying to sign him for maybe a 2 year deal at third for much less money.

Pudge maybe.  Brocail is likely to retire, so no.

You don't have to offer arb to continue negotiating.  So they could not offer Hawkins and still sign him.

[pots]

You don't have to offer arb to continue negotiating.  So they could not offer Hawkins and still sign him.

true but why not offer arbitration just in case he signs elsewhere? 

[Jacksonian]

true but why not offer arbitration just in case he signs elsewhere? 

Budgetary issues.  I laid my thinking out earlier in this thread.

[MusicMan]

Budgetary issues.  I laid my thinking out earlier in this thread.

If not Hawkins, would they look to Paulino to close?  Arias, perhaps?

[Mr. Happy]

Budgetary issues.  I laid my thinking out earlier in this thread.

I think that you're right in your thinking. Budgetary issues are going to inform the FA market again in my opinion.

[Reuben]

true but why not offer arbitration just in case he signs elsewhere? 

$. see offseason, 2008

and I don't mean this as an indictment of the team's spending or budgetary concerns, just pointing out the reality of the situation. This applies to every MLB team; witness the Yankees' non-arb-offer to Abreu last year. Extra draft picks are valuable but most teams will not risk over-paying their arb-eligible players by $2 mil or more just for the chance to maybe get an extra pick.

[Jacksonian]

If not Hawkins, would they look to Paulino to close?  Arias, perhaps?

Wade hasn't been afraid to deal prospects to get one.  I'm thinking someone like Towles, who appears to have reupped his value in AAA this season, would be part of deal to get one.  He won't deal his favorite prospects, but I'd bet there are some other teams would want that he'd be willing to part with.

[HudsonHawk]

I think the percentage you refer to is 25%. That is off the top of my head.

You're referring to the maximum salary reduction, which is 20% of the previous season or 30% of the previous two seasons.  The maximum salary reduction does not apply to arbitration between a free agent and his former club.  The club could theoretically offer as little as the league minimum.  However, it's basically unheard of for a player to get a reduction in arbitration, and in the case of a Type A free agent, an All-Star, he should expect at least a 20% raise.  I can't imagine Tejada being awarded less than $15MM in arbitration, quite possibly as much as $18MM.


ETA:  Oops, let me change/clarify the 30% number...the club can't offer less than 80% of the previous season or 70% of the previous two seasons.

[MusicMan]

IOW, there's no way the Astros will offer Tejada.

[HudsonHawk]

IOW, there's no way the Astros will offer Tejada.

I wouldn't say there is "no way", but they'd better be prepared to give him a substantial raise if they do.

[accougars]

You're referring to the maximum salary reduction, which is 20% of the previous season or 70% of the previous two seasons.  The maximum salary reduction does not apply to arbitration between a free agent and his former club.  The club could theoretically offer as little as the league minimum.  However, it's basically unheard of for a player to get a reduction in arbitration, and in the case of a Type A free agent, an All-Star, he should expect at least a 20% raise.  I can't imagine Tejada being awarded less than $15MM in arbitration, quite possibly as much as $18MM.

Thanks, I didn't have time to look up the specifics. In any case, my point earlier in this thread was that I didn't think  Tejada would be offered because he stood to make WAAAAY too much if he accepted.

[Noe]

I wouldn't say there is "no way", but they'd better be prepared to give him a substantial raise if they do.

Mitigated of course by how much ROI they can reasonably expect from Miggy.  Having said that, they have not promoted Miggy to the fans much until this year.  Now, all of a sudden, there is much Miggy-poolza advertising going on.  Next thing you know, bobble head night for Miggy.  That will tell you if they think they can make as much money off him as they spend on him.

Miggy is not Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman or Roy Oswalt (heck, throw in Hunter Pence and Wandy Rodriquez if you want), but if Pam gets it in her mind that she can market Miggy to the Joe Average Fan, then he's coming back... at whatever price arbitration will allow.

[sporadic]

Miggy is not Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman or Roy Oswalt (heck, throw in Hunter Pence and Wandy Rodriquez if you want), but if Pam gets it in her mind that she can market Miggy to the Joe Average Fan, then he's coming back... at whatever price arbitration will allow.

That is most certainly true, but what Miggy is that the others are not is a leader.  Just how much do y'all reckon the Astros would be willing to pay for Miggy's leadership alone, marketability aside?  Also, I would like to know if anyone else sees that as an asset worth "overpaying" for.

[Ron Brand]

They extended Cooper's contract.

[MusicMan]

Mitigated of course by how much ROI they can reasonably expect from Miggy.  Having said that, they have not promoted Miggy to the fans much until this year.  Now, all of a sudden, there is much Miggy-poolza advertising going on.  Next thing you know, bobble head night for Miggy.  That will tell you if they think they can make as much money off him as they spend on him.

Miggy is not Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman or Roy Oswalt (heck, throw in Hunter Pence and Wandy Rodriquez if you want), but if Pam gets it in her mind that she can market Miggy to the Joe Average Fan, then he's coming back... at whatever price arbitration will allow.

Noe, I'm not saying you're wrong in the slightest about this.  But it's EXACTLY what's wrong with this organization.

[Noe]

Noe, I'm not saying you're wrong in the slightest about this.  But it's EXACTLY what's wrong with this organization.

I'm drafting my next Glad You Asked contribution now, but it will be somewhat related to this issue.  One thing that I've been hearing Do-Ray say for about a month now (leading up to the trading deadline) is this "The whole idea of rebuilding is stupid.  I mean, the very idea is idiotic, how does a major league team expect to be competitive by saying that they're not going to concern themselves with winning, instead they want to rebuild instead?  See the Pittsburgh Pirates if you want evidence of how well that works!".

They think they have a point of course and to some extend the name of the game is to compete.  But rebuilding as they understand it is about not wanting to win.  Truth be told, Houston needs to restock, not rebuild.  I'll share more in my contribution, but since their current stock in the minors is all AA or below, especially in terms of solid pitching, then you need to stay this course of aged, somewhat bargain basement veterans (see: Rodriquez, Pudge).  All the while guys like Manzella, Maysonet and others who really should be major leaguers at some capacity cannot get a job.  All the while Lance and Roy get older.

See, this is why you need to restock with major league ready talent, the fact that Lance and Roy will not be the same players when a Lyles is ready is the very reason you would trade a Valverde or Tejada, not think about re-signing them for one or two more years.