The void gets voidier just before pitchers and catchers report. Anyway, I could not refrain from a little speculation on the roster chances of the 57 players invited to MLST.
I figure that 16 spots are "locks": Oswalt, Hampton, Rodriguez, Valverde, Geary, Hawkins, Byrdak, Wright, Lee, Bourn, Pence, Erstad, Berkman, Matsui, Tejada, Blum.
I also figure there is at least an even chance that they will carry three catchers ... possibly at the expense of a 5th outfielder, or less likely at the expense of a 12th pitcher. That leaves my speculative 25-man roster with room for 2 starters, 2 (or maybe only 1) relievers, 3 catchers (or maybe only 2) and 2 other position players (or possibly 3). My thoughts on the candidates:
Pitchers:
Sampson -- 95% chance; almost certainly in the bullpen, which assumes he is all the way back from surgery.
Moehler -- 90% chance of being the 4th starter (or possibly the long/swing man in the pen).
Brocail -- 70% chance of making the pen; most likely to be booted from that role.
Backe -- 65% chance of making the rotation; most likely to be booted from that role
Hensley -- 20% chance of dislodging someone
Ortiz -- 10% chance ... probably as a starter
Arias -- 10% chance of making the bullpen
Norris, Nieve, Paulino -- 5% chance for each of them to make the rotation and a combined 5% for one of them to make the bullpen.
De la Vara, Lumsden -- 1-2% chance each to make the team; De la Vara gets a slight edge as a rule 5 pick.
Catchers:
Quintero -- 80%; leading candidate to start
Palmisano -- 70%; mostly on the basis of his rule 5 status, and one of the reasons I think they may carry 3 catchers
Hall, Towles -- 50% each; I see this as the 25/26 bubble position for the whole roster.
Infielders:
Boone -- 90%; his spot to loose, but I don't see him as a "lock"
Newhan -- 65%; most likely to be dislodged by one of the "kids", but his versatility and expereince give him the inside track
Sutton -- 30%; versatility gives him the edge among the rookies
Johnson -- 20%; a big spring could move him into a platoon with Blum at Boone's expense
Manzella -- 10%; most likely to be the full-time SS at RR to be recalled in case of emergency
Kata -- 5%; probably AAAA roster-filler
Saccomanno, Maysonet, Smith, Gall -- 1% each (and generous at that)
Outfielders:
Abercrombie -- 40%; most likely to make the roster if they go with only 2 catchers
Ramirez, Michaels -- 1-2% each (more evidence of generosity)
Chaff (AAAA players with no realistic shot):
Paronto, Capellan, Graves, Fulchino, Esposito
Kids (prospects on the 40-man with no realistic shot):
James, Perez, Gervacio, Trinidad, Bogusevic, Castro, Santangelo
Any interest in joining me in speculation??
