Astros "seriously" after Randy Wolf

[Reuben]

according to Olney at espn
"The Houston Astros are engaged in serious discussions to acquire veteran left-hander Randy Wolf... Wolf has a no-trade clause that includes 14 teams to which he cannot be dealt without his permission, but the Astros are not among those."

This at first seemed a bit odd, but I guess why not take a shot with Wolf, and perhaps they either sign him for next year or get an extra draft pick if he leaves. Wolf probably won't cost them anyone that they'd miss terribly.

[Jacksonian]

according to Olney at espn
"The Houston Astros are engaged in serious discussions to acquire veteran left-hander Randy Wolf... Wolf has a no-trade clause that includes 14 teams to which he cannot be dealt without his permission, but the Astros are not among those."

This at first seemed a bit odd, but I guess why not take a shot with Wolf, and perhaps they either sign him for next year or get an extra draft pick if he leaves. Wolf probably won't cost them anyone that they'd miss terribly.

The Astros have very few they'd miss terribly.

[sporadic]

The Astros have very few they'd miss terribly.

Making it all the more difficult to acquire anyone worth a shit, IMO

[MusicMan]

Astro starting pitchers are 12th in the league in ERA, the bullpen is 11th.  The offense is 12th in the league in runs scored.

Clearly, they're a Randy Wolf short of a wild card run.

[austro]

the bullpen is 11th.

Before or after last night's performance?

[MusicMan]

After.

[JimR]

After.

nice recap. especially the last sentence.

[MusicMan]

Gracias.  Looking for ways to describe this team will begin to challenge me at some point.  At least earlier in the season, they were an interesting mediocre team.  That novelty has worn off.

[MikeyBoy]

Gracias.  Looking for ways to describe this team will begin to challenge me at some point.  At least earlier in the season, they were an interesting mediocre team.  That novelty has worn off.

The good news is there are tons of "fail" pics available on the internet. Or maybe a pic of Carlos Lee with a pancake on his head, that would be cool.

[Limey]

Looking for ways to describe this team will begin to challenge me at some point.

You're welcome.

[Limey]

The good news is there are tons of "fail" pics available on the internet. Or maybe a pic of Carlos Lee with a pancake on his head, that would be cool.

I think last night's 9th inning deserves the accreditation "epic".

[MusicMan]

I considered that one, but the comparison to radioactive waste seemed too apt.

[Limey]

I considered that one, but the comparison to radioactive waste seemed too apt.

Radioactive waste vs. "epic" train wreck... hmmmm.

[austro]

Gracias.  Looking for ways to describe this team will begin to challenge me at some point.  At least earlier in the season, they were an interesting mediocre team.  That novelty has worn off.

Sorry, I should have gone to the recap first, but I forgot all about it. Nice job.

I've never seen that photo of the container ship before. Unloading that mess would make a great episode for "America's Port".

[BudGirl]

I think that was one of the worst games I have ever attended.  It took forever to end.  At 9:23 I told my companion, this game won't be over until 11:00.  I was pretty damm close.

Nice recap BTW, MM.  Recaps are getting harder and harder to write regarding losses.

[Twoniner]

  He'd be an improvement by default,  but he would also be a very shitty fit more Minute Maid park as a lefty extreme flyball pitcher.   

[JimR]

  He'd be an improvement by default,  but he would also be a very shitty fit more Minute Maid park as a lefty extreme flyball pitcher.   

you know how to become a "groundball pitcher?"

you keep the fucking ball down. fly balls are not a genetic trait that pitchers are born with.

[Gizzmonic]

If the Astros get Wolf, does that mean the Wolf Pack will start showing up at games?

Between them, the Little Pumas, the O's Bros Wizards, and Los Caballitos, it's going to start looking like Mos Eisley Cantina at MMPUS.

[Arky Vaughan]

The offense is 12th in the league in runs scored.

That says a lot. If you build a team with offense in mind, you should at least rank toward the top in runs scored.

[Arky Vaughan]

you know how to become a "groundball pitcher?"

you keep the fucking ball down. fly balls are not a genetic trait that pitchers are born with.

But some pitchers do keep the ball down better than others, whether by ability or purpose.

[astrojo]

If the Astros get Wolf, does that mean the Wolf Pack will start showing up at games?

Between them, the Little Pumas, the O's Bros Wizards, and Los Caballitos, it's going to start looking like Mos Eisley Cantina at MMPUS.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaPf-MRKITg&feature=related

[S.P. Rodriguez]

  He'd be an improvement by default,  but he would also be a very shitty fit more Minute Maid park as a lefty extreme flyball pitcher.   

How does a G:F ration of 1.12, for 2008, rate as "extreme"?  This ratio means nothing, if he knows how to pitch he can pitch anywhere.  And not to mention, you can give up fly balls in MMP, the CF and gaps are incredibly deep.  The 'Boxes' are short, I would say the hr to RF are rarely cheap, though. 

[jbm]

That says a lot. If you build a team with offense in mind, you should at least rank toward the top in runs scored.

To me, that is the greatest frustration this year: that the plan to build a good offense has failed miserably, without any legit injury excuses.

[MusicMan]

To me, that is the greatest frustration this year: that the plan to build a good offense has failed miserably, without any legit injury excuses.

C, CF, RF, and SS have been below expectations.  It's not rocket science, it's the best of a bad choice of plans, gone wrong.

[Arky Vaughan]

To me, that is the greatest frustration this year: that the plan to build a good offense has failed miserably, without any legit injury excuses.

Among the starters, Berkman, Lee, Matsui and Wigginton have been good to excellent, Tejada and Pence have been mediocre and Bourn and Towles have been awful. Between a quarter and a third of Astros at-bats have gone to players batting .250 or worse, excluding pitchers. That sucks some life out of the offense.

[Jacksonian]

C, CF, RF, and SS have been below expectations.  It's not rocket science, it's the best of a bad choice of plans, gone wrong.

Whose expectations?  How well should Bourn, Towles, Pence, and Tejada have performed?  What may have gone wrong were expectations rather than performance.

[Arky Vaughan]

C, CF, RF, and SS have been below expectations.  It's not rocket science, it's the best of a bad choice of plans, gone wrong.

Agreed. It was not unreasonable to expect that all four of those players who hit better than they have this season.

[Arky Vaughan]

Whose expectations?  How well should Bourn, Towles, Pence, and Tejada have performed?  What may have gone wrong were expectations rather than performance.

Well, clearly the expectations were wrong, since they have not been realized. That does not mean it was a foolish risk for the Astros to expect Bourn and Towles to hit better than they have.

[Jacksonian]

Agreed. It was not unreasonable to expect that all four of those players who hit better than they have this season.

For a catcher and a centerfielder who have never been everyday major leaguers to struggle significantly in their first shot at starting everyday?  I'd say it's reasonable.  Pence isn't hitting a ton but still not bad for a 7-hole hitter.  How good he is really has yet to be determined IMO.  And, IMO Tejada's been pretty good for a 34 year old SS who has played in 98 of the team's 99 games and coming off an injury plagued season last year.

[BudGirl]

Same shit, different players.  We have gone from Everett and Ausmus to Bourn and Towles being the reason the Astros only scored 3 runs against a 9+ ERA pitcher.

[Jacksonian]

Same shit, different players.  We have gone from Everett and Ausmus to Bourn and Towles being the reason the Astros only scored 3 runs against a 9+ ERA pitcher.

Ausmus started yesterday so it is all his fault.

[MusicMan]

Same shit, different players.  We have gone from Everett and Ausmus to Bourn and Towles being the reason the Astros only scored 3 runs against a 9+ ERA pitcher.

Hell no.  I'm staring squarely at Tejada and Pence.

[Gizzmonic]

The players are having bad AB's with runners in scoring position.  Pence and Tejada are both far too aggressive, hacking at the first pitch all the time, hitting weak grounders, etc.  I know they aren't disciplined hitters, but with RISP, they need to make sure they've got their pitch before they stick the bat out there.

[Jacksonian]

Hell no.  I'm staring squarely at Tejada and Pence.

I didn't watch the game.  The boxscore makes it look like Tejada, Berkman, and Wiggy were more culprits offensively than Pence especially in terms of scoring and driving in runs.

[MusicMan]

I didn't watch the game.  The boxscore makes it look like Tejada, Berkman, and Wiggy were more culprits offensively than Pence especially in terms of scoring and driving in runs.

Overall season.

[jbm]

The players are having bad AB's with runners in scoring position.  Pence and Tejada are both far too aggressive, hacking at the first pitch all the time, hitting weak grounders, etc.  I know they aren't disciplined hitters, but with RISP, they need to make sure they've got their pitch before they stick the bat out there.

I used to think Pence's problem was his lack of discipline, or swinging at breaking balls that no one could hit.  Now, I wonder if he has additional problems.  Even when he waits for the fastball in the heart of the zone, he rarely makes solid contact.  He's looking a lot like Willy Taveras at the plate lately, where his best chance to get on is to make poor enough contact to beat it out. 

[strosrays]

I used to think Pence's problem was his lack of discipline, or swinging at breaking balls that no one could hit.  Now, I wonder if he has additional problems.  Even when he waits for the fastball in the heart of the zone, he rarely makes solid contact.  He's looking a lot like Willy Taveras at the plate lately, where his best chance to get on is to make poor enough contact to beat it out. 

I don't know about everything else, but Pence!! is evolving into exactly the hitter I thought he might be, starting the last month or so of last season.

[jbm]

I don't know about everything else, but Pence!! is evolving into exactly the hitter I thought he might be, starting the last month or so of last season.

Just curious, what tipped you off, or what led you to see this coming?  Last year, he seemed to make a lot of solid contact on fastballs.  This year, rarely.   

[roadrunner]

I don't know about everything else, but Pence!! is evolving into exactly the hitter I thought he might be, starting the last month or so of last season.

I don't think he's this bad, but I don't think he is as great as he was at his best last season.  He's somewhere in between.  Either way, I don't think management will be able to move him until the fans fall out of love with him.  Sort of like what I think is happening with Backe right now.

[strosrays]

Just curious, what tipped you off, or what led you to see this coming?  Last year, he seemed to make a lot of solid contact on fastballs.  This year, rarely.   

First of all, I was not nearly the only skeptic. 

Anyway, his undisciplined swing and approach at the plate, which I observed, and a look at his numbers was the tip-off.  We had this discussion at some point last season.  I can't find it, but I think the gist of it was Pence!!, because of his poor secondary stats, was a valuable hitter if he was hitting .330, not so much at .270 or less.  And it was my thinking, I'm not looking at a guy who is going to regularly hit .330 here.  I think my prediction was for him to end up a .270/.320/.410 hitter or so, which would make him about dead average.  Even that might have been a little optimistic.

I do think that, like Bourne, he would have benefited from being left alone at an appropriate spot in the order.  But that, as we know, ain't happening.

[JimR]

For a catcher and a centerfielder who have never been everyday major leaguers to struggle significantly in their first shot at starting everyday?  I'd say it's reasonable.  Pence isn't hitting a ton but still not bad for a 7-hole hitter.  How good he is really has yet to be determined IMO.  And, IMO Tejada's been pretty good for a 34 year old SS who has played in 98 of the team's 99 games and coming off an injury plagued season last year.

Pence has had one good stretch. he was touted as the next DiMaggio in the off season, which was ridiculous. his ABs the last few weeks have been awful. his mechanics at the plate are terrible. he has no concept of situations. when he is hitting, he looks like nothing more than an "I and Me" player. to his credit, he busts his ass most of the time. to me, that is all he does well.

[JimR]

Hell no.  I'm staring squarely at Tejada and Pence.

yes, and Berkman lately.

Bourn has had no chance to succeed, imo. i can do a better job of coaching a leadoff man than this group has.

[JimR]

I used to think Pence's problem was his lack of discipline, or swinging at breaking balls that no one could hit.  Now, I wonder if he has additional problems.  Even when he waits for the fastball in the heart of the zone, he rarely makes solid contact.  He's looking a lot like Willy Taveras at the plate lately, where his best chance to get on is to make poor enough contact to beat it out. 

he pulls off and rolls over everything, even down the middle FBs. he tries to yank everything.

[Arky Vaughan]

Same shit, different players.  We have gone from Everett and Ausmus to Bourn and Towles being the reason the Astros only scored 3 runs against a 9+ ERA pitcher.

Where did you read that?

[Arky Vaughan]

For a catcher and a centerfielder who have never been everyday major leaguers to struggle significantly in their first shot at starting everyday?  I'd say it's reasonable.  Pence isn't hitting a ton but still not bad for a 7-hole hitter.  How good he is really has yet to be determined IMO.  And, IMO Tejada's been pretty good for a 34 year old SS who has played in 98 of the team's 99 games and coming off an injury plagued season last year.

If you think it was unreasonable to expect them to hit better, then you're one serious pessimist.

[MusicMan]

I do think that, like Bourne, he would have benefited from being left alone at an appropriate spot in the order.  But that, as we know, ain't happening.

At the rish of repeating myself...
Hunter Pence, 2008:
Batting 1... .215/.229/.316 (79 AB)
Batting 2... .220/.246.305 (59 AB)
Batting 6... .299/.337/.513 (154 AB)
Batting 7... .281/.347/.484 (64 AB)

I refuse to be held responsible for my actions if Coop ever puts him at the top again this season.

[Gizzmonic]

If you think it was unreasonable to expect them to hit better, then you're one serious pessimist.

Better than what they're doing?  Yes.  But a lot of people just assumed that Towles was ready for the big leagues based on a month of hitting against September callups.  Bourn is still evolving as well.  They ought to stick with him at #1, what's it going to hurt?  I hope the beating yesterday opened some eyes.

[Jacksonian]

If you think it was unreasonable to expect them to hit better, then you're one serious pessimist.

I'm in the Towles was a year of AAA away camp.

Bourn was a part-time player last year in Philly, and in his entire professional career (he hit over .280 just once and that was a low-A).

A sophomore slump is not unexpected, doubly so for a free-swinger like Pence, IMO.

Tejada's logged a lot of innings over the past 13 years.  In his mid-30's at shortstop is it unrealistic to see him struggle in the middle of a season in which he leads the team in number of at-bats?

[Jacksonian]

At the rish of repeating myself...
Hunter Pence, 2008:
Batting 1... .215/.229/.316 (79 AB)
Batting 2... .220/.246.305 (59 AB)
Batting 6... .299/.337/.513 (154 AB)
Batting 7... .281/.347/.484 (64 AB)

I refuse to be held responsible for my actions if Coop ever puts him at the top again this season.

Over an entire season in 2006 at AA Pence's line was .282/.356/.529.  That's about what I expect from him as a big leaguer.

[Astroholic]

Tejada's logged a lot of innings over the past 13 years.  In his mid-30's at shortstop is it unrealistic to see him struggle in the middle of a season in which he leads the team in number of at-bats?

Especially without the "b-12".

[MusicMan]

I'm in the Towles was a year of AAA away camp.

Bourn was a part-time player last year in Philly, and in his entire professional career (he hit over .280 just once and that was a low-A).

A sophomore slump is not unexpected, doubly so for a free-swinger like Pence, IMO.

Tejada's logged a lot of innings over the past 13 years.  In his mid-30's at shortstop is it unrealistic to see him struggle in the middle of a season in which he leads the team in number of at-bats?

Tejada leads in AB's only b/c he doesn't walk.  Tejada, Berkman, Lee, and Pence are all within 16 plate appearances of each other.

As to his expectations... even if you thought he wouldn't come back to MVP form, dropping 40 points of OBP and 20 points of SLG from his mediocre 2007 performance was NOT in anyone's expectations.

PS... BP's forecast for Tejada, which was considered conservative by many, was .299/.352/.460.  That's a far cry from .278/.317/.423, which is somewhere between their 10th and 25th percentile projections.
This led me to check out their projection on Pence, which was .288/.347/.505, vs. his actual .265/.304/.426, which is actually BELOW their "worst-case" 10th percentile projection.

[BudGirl]

Ausmus started yesterday so it is all his fault.

It usually is.

[Jacksonian]

Tejada leads in AB's only b/c he doesn't walk.  Tejada, Berkman, Lee, and Pence are all within 16 plate appearances of each other.

As to his expectations... even if you thought he wouldn't come back to MVP form, dropping 40 points of OBP and 20 points of SLG from his mediocre 2007 performance was NOT in anyone's expectations.

PS... BP's forecast for Tejada, which was considered conservative by many, was .299/.352/.460.  That's a far cry from .278/.317/.423, which is somewhere between their 10th and 25th percentile projections.
This led me to check out their projection on Pence, which was .288/.347/.505, vs. his actual .265/.304/.426, which is actually BELOW their "worst-case" 10th percentile projection.

I guess it never occurred to anyone that maybe he's just not a full-time player anymore (there have been performance drop-offs worse that his), or that he could rebound in August and September and end with stats that meet everyone's expectations.

[MusicMan]

If he's not a full-time player any more, then trading for him was a major, major FUBAR.

I sincerely hope he bounces back, but this is not a summer swoon; this is what he's been outside of April.

April: .339/.376/.560
May: .291/.311/.402
June: .227/.292/.392
July: .232/.271.268

[Jacksonian]

If he's not a full-time player any more, then trading for him was a major, major FUBAR.

I sincerely hope he bounces back, but this is not a summer swoon; this is what he's been outside of April.

April: .339/.376/.560
May: .291/.311/.402
June: .227/.292/.392
July: .232/.271.268

Yahoo has his July actually worse than that, but whatever, it's bad.

You named him for blame on the offensive woes.  The way you put it, I'm looking at you, says to me you think he should be doing better.  I wonder if he's just no longer capable of being that good anymore or hiding an injury and unable to live up to others' and perhaps his own expectations.  He's gone all out this year though.  I don't blame the effort.

[JimR]

No way in hell anyone could have had expectations for Bourn or Towles. They were completely untested and should have been "wait and see" players.

[MusicMan]

Yahoo has his July actually worse than that, but whatever, it's bad.

You named him for blame on the offensive woes.  The way you put it, I'm looking at you, says to me you think he should be doing better.  I wonder if he's just no longer capable of being that good anymore or hiding an injury and unable to live up to others' and perhaps his own expectations.  He's gone all out this year though.  I don't blame the effort.

Oh, I'm not blaming effort at all.  Shoot, they may be the two highest-effort guys on the team.  I'm just saying their results are the biggest issues with the offense, as the team was assembled.

[austro]

Yahoo has his July actually worse than that, but whatever, it's bad.

Baseball-reference.com says .213/.250/.246 for July. Almost Berkman-esque.

I agree that Tejada's gone all out, and I certainly don't blame the effort. But it's reasonable to wonder if he's reached the end of the line, especially when trying to figure out what to do next year. If he were 5 years younger, you'd just say that this year is an aberration, write it off, and pencil him in for next year. But now?

[JimR]

MLB.com says Wolf to Astros for a minor league pitcher.

I do not fault Tejada. He is a pleasure to watch.

[JackAstro]

MLB.com says Wolf to Astros for a minor league pitcher.

I do not fault Tejada. He is a pleasure to watch.

Taras wins.

[MusicMan]

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/weblogs/padres/2008/jul/22/padres-send-wolf-astros/

Wolf for Reineke.

[MusicMan]

This is EXACTLY the type of move I don't think this team can afford.

[JimR]

Boy, if you think Reineke is a loss, I want to invite you to RR.

[MusicMan]

Boy, if you think Reineke is a loss, I want to invite you to RR.

Never seen him, I'm going off stats, so I'll take your word for it.  His stats say "high strikeout, good control" to me, and The Bus Ride had him at #5 in the org on our Top 10 list this year.

[legs_of_eggs]

Never seen him, I'm going off stats, so I'll take your word for it.  His stats say "high strikeout, good control" to me, and The Bus Ride had him at #5 in the org on our Top 10 list this year.

He's 26 and hasn't sniffed the majors yet.  He had mediocre AAA numbers.  I'll take Wolf or the draft pick please.

[legs_of_eggs]

Wolf would be slated to start Thursday, but the team is off then, you think he makes tomorrow's 1pm start?

[Jacksonian]

Never seen him, I'm going off stats, so I'll take your word for it.  His stats say "high strikeout, good control" to me, and The Bus Ride had him at #5 in the org on our Top 10 list this year.

That was severe damning with faint praise.  Reineke's peak upside is as a late inning reliever but not closer and not in Qualls class.  I can't believe that's all Wolf was worth.

ETA: If they don't sign Wolf long-term he should be good enough to rate as a Type B free agent and net a supplemental first round pick next year whom, IMO, will likely have more upside that Reineke.

[MusicMan]

Then I feel better.  But given that Wolf is a southpaw Backe, he certainly wasn't worth any more than that.

[jonbloozy]

Reineke definitely struggled to begin the year.  The last seven starts, however, he's given up a total of 9 runs and has had six quality starts.  He pitched an 8 inning shutout yesterday before Nieve came in and gave up a solo homer.  I think he has potential.  

[JimR]

If it is not Nieve or Paulino, I do not care. Maybe Reinike is the Next Big Thing, but not to me.

Do they try to resign Wolf? Is this also a deal for next year? I hope so.

[Jacksonian]

Then I feel better.  But given that Wolf is a southpaw Backe, he certainly wasn't worth any more than that.

Reineke is exactly the kind of player the Astros could/can afford to give up.

[legs_of_eggs]

If it is not Nieve or Paulino, I do not care. Maybe Reinike is the Next Big Thing, but not to me.

Do they try to resign Wolf? Is this also a deal for next year? I hope so.

Considering Houston wasn't on his 14 team no trade clause, I'd think he'd consider staying assuming things work out. The Astros will try to sign many starting pitchers this off-season, Wolf is another name on the list.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

When is Wolf scheduled to start next? 

[Waldo]

When is Wolf scheduled to start next? 

He would've pitched Thursday.

[pravata]

McTaggart and Justice report

"He will start for the Astros on Sunday at Miller Park against the Milwaukee Brewers."
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/5901537.html

[legs_of_eggs]

Would it be out of the question to consider re-flipping Wolf before the deadline?

[I'm Richies Dad]

To me that makes some sense on Wolf.  If Stros fall farther out, maybe some team will be desperate and over pay.

[Hornstros]

Probably would get a shitty deal for him given what the market seems to look like

[coop]

If it is not Nieve or Paulino, I do not care. Maybe Reinike is the Next Big Thing, but not to me.

Do they try to resign Wolf? Is this also a deal for next year? I hope so.

At the very least I think they offer arbitration in the off-season.

[pravata]

He recently purchased a house in the Hollywood Hills in Los Angeles, a house once owned by former Guns N' Roses guitarist Slash.
http://trades.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/07/randy_wolf_headed_to_houston.html
This is the former home of Guns N' Roses guitarist Slash, who sold it to Randy in 2007
http://virtualglobetrotting.com/map/33914/

[hostros7]

No downside here in my eyes.  Draft pick, trade bait, or a rotation for 2009 that starts with Oswalt, Pitcher x, pitcher y, Wandy, Wolf before you send Roy out to the lease with Sheets with a briefcase full of cash.

[jonbloozy]

Would it be out of the question to consider re-flipping Wolf before the deadline?

Get in, get out, go home

[Taras Bulba]

He recently purchased a house in the Hollywood Hills in Los Angeles, a house once owned by former Guns N' Roses guitarist Slash.
http://trades.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/07/randy_wolf_headed_to_houston.html
This is the former home of Guns N' Roses guitarist Slash, who sold it to Randy in 2007
http://virtualglobetrotting.com/map/33914/

Does Slash have a ranch near Houston that he can sell to Wolf?

[jbm]

I wonder if Reineke for Wolf indicates that the Padres see something more in Reineke, or that the league sees little in Wolf.

I doubt the Astros will ever rue the day they let Reineke go.

[dirty steve]

good deal if Wolf stays or leaves.  try to sign him in the offseason or get the previously mentioned compensation.  if trever miller can get a 2nd round tender, then i have to think wolf gets at least that much.

[Russe]

1-6 W-L, 6.63 ERA, 1.62 WHIP away from PETCO. Yikes. At least we didn't give up much.

[legs_of_eggs]

1-6 W-L, 6.63 ERA, 1.62 WHIP away from PETCO. Yikes. At least we didn't give up much.

And he's coming to MMP so that means he'll be doubley worse oh my Ed Wade why didn't you look at the home/away splits

[Twoniner]

   Brutal fit for Minute Maid park, but they didn't give up much to get him.   If he doesn't totally implode, I think that Drayton will try and keep him around as a "name"  for the rotation.  

[Jacksonian]

  Brutal fit for Minute Maid park, but they didn't give up much to get him.   If he doesn't totally implode, I think that Drayton will try and keep him around as a "name"  for the rotation.  

Sure.  In 1/2 the Houston households right now folks are responding to the trade by saying, "Wolf?  Oh yeah the lefty who signed with San Diego this off-season.  He was pursued by Houston but decided he liked SoCal better.  He wasn't bad in LA last year, but he was injured with the Phillies a few years ago.  He's a flyball pitcher so I sure hope he can keep the ball out of the Crawford boxes."  Or did you mean they'd call it the Wolf rotation?

[JimR]

Ain't the internet gand? A million experts instantly on any subject

[Gizzmonic]

Or did you mean they'd call it the Wolf rotation?

Brother, how long's it been since you had a turn in the Wolf Brand Rotation?

[Jacksonian]

Brother, how long's it been since you had a turn in the Wolf Brand Rotation?

Sheriff Blaylock's may sue.

[Jacksonian]

Ain't the internet gand? A million experts instantly on any subject

They(we)'ve always been there.  Just didn't all have your phone number before the interweb.

[Arky Vaughan]

I'm in the Towles was a year of AAA away camp.

Bourn was a part-time player last year in Philly, and in his entire professional career (he hit over .280 just once and that was a low-A).

A sophomore slump is not unexpected, doubly so for a free-swinger like Pence, IMO.

Tejada's logged a lot of innings over the past 13 years.  In his mid-30's at shortstop is it unrealistic to see him struggle in the middle of a season in which he leads the team in number of at-bats?

You're making the wrong argument here, at least in response to me. I'm not maintaining that the outcomes that have occurred were unreasonable to expect. Failure is always a possibility, especially with untested players (and even with tested players).

What I'm saying is that it was not unreasonable for the Astros to expect that Bourn, Towles, Tejada and Pence might contribute more than they have. Were the Astros wrong in those expectations? Obviously so. Was it unreasonable for the Astros to have those expectations? I don't think so.

[JimR]

My phone number? Nah, what I know I get from going on a Bus Ride. You guys are the only experts posting here.

[Jacksonian]

My phone number? Nah, what I know I get from going on a Bus Ride. You guys are the only experts posting here.

A lesson I learned:  Listen a lot.  Ask a few questions.  Watch the games and apply what you learned from those who know more about baseball than you do, and it's amazing what you'll understand.

[Taras Bulba]

A lesson I learned:  Listen a lot.  Ask a few questions.  Watch the games and apply what you learned from those who know more about baseball than you do, and it's amazing what you'll understand.

Like listening to Deshaies.  Did you see the sequence last night when Ausmus rubbed the back of his right hand on the chalk line and then Brown asked what he was doing?  Of course, Jim D. was right on it to explain so the pitcher could better pick up his signals.  He then saw Ausmus' signal and called the backdoor slider from Hernandez.  That was fun and I rewound it so my wife could see it.  In a season like this, Deshaies still makes it enjoyable to watch.

[JimR]

Like listening to Deshaies.  Did you see the sequence last night when Ausmus rubbed the back of his right hand on the chalk line and then Brown asked what he was doing?  Of course, Jim D. was right on it to explain so the pitcher could better pick up his signals.  He then saw Ausmus' signal and called the backdoor slider from Hernandez.  That was fun and I rewound it so my wife could see it.  In a season like this, Deshaies still makes it enjoyable to watch.

only when winning is the only thing that matters does baseball sometimes become hard to watch. to a fan of the game as well as of a team, every game is fun.

[Reuben]

That was severe damning with faint praise.  Reineke's peak upside is as a late inning reliever but not closer and not in Qualls class.  I can't believe that's all Wolf was worth.

ETA: If they don't sign Wolf long-term he should be good enough to rate as a Type B free agent and net a supplemental first round pick next year whom, IMO, will likely have more upside that Reineke.

I figured this was a big reason why they went after Wolf, and with the Padres apparently wanting to avoid paying his incentive clauses for this year, the price (in prospects) was right. This may sound silly but I've always thought Wolf looked like an Astro. Hope they can bring him back.

I want to echo Jim here that it is really great to have you and Duman's thorough insight at our disposal, especially around this time of year- your assessments of Reineke, Saccomano, Towles, Chris Johnson etc. all help to shape a realistic understanding of what could happen with the team and why.

[Reuben]

only when winning is the only thing that matters does baseball sometimes become hard to watch. to a fan of the game as well as of a team, every game is fun.

I hear you but I think Zipp had a good point earlier, that if your team is going to be bad, it's a lot more fun if they are young and can be expected to grow into a better team. That's one of the reasons why it is frustrating to see Bourn benched so much recently. Conversely, watching the young'uns play can be really frustrating at times (ie. Pence pulling off everything- oddly, he looks to me like he does this even in his little practice swings) but IMO it is still better than watching a badly-formed high-payroll team have a poor season.

[JimR]

I hear you but I think Zipp had a good point earlier, that if your team is going to be bad, it's a lot more fun if they are young and can be expected to grow into a better team. That's one of the reasons why it is frustrating to see Bourn benched so much recently. Conversely, watching the young'uns play can be really frustrating at times (ie. Pence pulling off everything- oddly, he looks to me like he does this even in his little practice swings) but IMO it is still better than watching a badly-formed high-payroll team have a poor season.

so, in May you were saying "forget these wins--this team is badly formed." were you?

i do not buy that current criticism.

[BizidyDizidy]

so, in May you were saying "forget these wins--this team is badly formed." were you?

i do not buy that current criticism.

FWIW, I think he's saying it's fun to watch anyone win and young people lose; watching old people lose is just sad (I am avoiding any obvious jokes here).

[Reuben]

so, in May you were saying "forget these wins--this team is badly formed." were you?

i do not buy that current criticism.

No, I was saying "wow, I hope they can keep it up."

Which criticism are you referring to? That the Astros should play Bourn more and see what he can do? Haven't you made this same argument? And I don't mean to say that I do not or will not continue to enjoy watching this team; if I gave that impression, I did not mean to. They gave it a good shot this year, although they were probably counting on too many best-case scenarios. It hasn't worked out, but that does not mean I will start ignoring them simply because they are not winning.

[JimR]

No, I was saying "wow, I hope they can keep it up."

Which criticism are you referring to?

that the team is "badly put together."

[chuck]

Reineke is a big guy but over the half a dozen times I saw him in ST he did not seem to throw terribly hard. He also could not find the plate with a flashlight and directions.

I'll be fascinated to learn if the FO has a deal more or less in place to extend Wolf beyond this year or if Drayton is pushing Wade to assemble the pieces to win this year.

[Reuben]

that the team is "badly put together."

I meant that in more of a general way- I hope the Astros commit to rebuilding the farm and integrating more young players. I do think the current team probably would've been better served by looking ahead instead of thinking they could reload and compete in 2008- the degree of influence McLane and/or Pam Gardner have on these matters is up for debate, but please don't think that I am sitting here going "yeah, that idiot Ed Wade, he really put together a stinker." IMO, he was told when they hired him to go for it in 2008, and he went for it, realizing that he didn't have that much to lose (in terms of their farm system at the time). I'm more concerned about what they do moving forward. I don't know enough to say whether they should totally blow it up and go for a full-on youth movement or not, but I think clearly they need to get a little younger. If they can't get a guy like Sheets in the off-season then I think they probably should build for 2010.

[Arky Vaughan]

that the team is "badly put together."

Other than the rotation, the team is put together just fine. It's the performance, not the construction, that's the problem with the line-up.

[ybbodeus]

The team has shown flashes of what it's capable of doing.  The frustrating part is knowing it can collectively produce at the plate but not being able to sustain it adequately.

[Rebel Jew]

Then I feel better.  But given that Wolf is a southpaw Backe, he certainly wasn't worth any more than that.

are those sombrero guys going to wear wolf masks like those cool guys in philly did?

[MusicMan]

Just wait until O's Bros, Blum's Blondes, and Berkman's Furries all show up too... it will be reminiscent of Anchorman.

[Rebel Jew]

Berkman's Furries all show up too

i'm not familiar with this fine organization

[MusicMan]

The Little Pumas

[Duman]

Like listening to Deshaies.  Did you see the sequence last night when Ausmus rubbed the back of his right hand on the chalk line and then Brown asked what he was doing?  Of course, Jim D. was right on it to explain so the pitcher could better pick up his signals.  He then saw Ausmus' signal and called the backdoor slider from Hernandez.  That was fun and I rewound it so my wife could see it.  In a season like this, Deshaies still makes it enjoyable to watch.

I saw a minor league catcher do that the other night and pointed it out to my 8 year old. 

[Duman]

Anyone else noticing that the Astros are doing alot of business with the Padres lately.  Not always trades but even the players we pick off their waiver and vice versa.  Is this the Smith connection at work?

[Reuben]

Wade and Wolf talk about 2009:

Wade said... the Astros may look to re-sign him for 2009.

"If nothing else, this gives us the short-term help that we need," Wade said. "It also gives us an opportunity to get our foot in the door with Randy and if he pitches well enough that we want to extend the contract, all that's done against the backdrop of what's going to be a pretty thin pitching market out there."

Wolf said he'd also be interested in returning to San Diego next season, if the Padres would take another chance on him.

"I'm not leaving here with any sour taste in my mouth," he said. "I have a lot of good memories here."

Link

[JackAstro]

i'm not familiar with this fine organization

The Little Pumas

See also...

[Rebel Jew]

See also...

man that looks so fun.  and here i am wasting my life with the whole heterosexuality thing

[MusicMan]

It takes Diff'rent Strokes
To move the world, yes it does,
It takes Diff'rent Strokes
To move the world!

[BUWebguy]

Anyone else noticing that the Astros are doing alot of business with the Padres lately.  Not always trades but even the players we pick off their waiver and vice versa.  Is this the Smith connection at work?

I think the younger Smith is long gone from SD, but wasn't Wade working as a scout or special assistant for the Padres just before he was hired by the Astros?

[Noe]

I think the younger Smith is long gone from SD, but wasn't Wade working as a scout or special assistant for the Padres just before he was hired by the Astros?

Yes.  Yes he was.

[JackAstro]

man that looks so fun.  and here i am wasting my life with the whole heterosexuality thing

By strict definition, a human wanting to nail a giant cartoon animal is about as "hetero" as it gets. Or so the Little Pumas tell me.

[Reuben]

In his blog, Padres exec Paul DePodesta admits that money had a lot to do with the Wolf trade:
"The money involved with Randy's salary and performance bonuses as well as the money to sign a draft pick IF Randy is a Type B free agent could amount to close to $5 million. That being the case, we felt we were much better off trading for Chad Reineke and using that $5 million in some other way."

By the way, those craving some classic Pinwheeling should check out his assessment of the Wolf trade. He lists all the reasons that it makes sense, seems to comprehend all of them, then says it was a stupid idea because (gasp) they will actually have to pay this pitcher three-and-a-half million dollars! For half a season, imagine that! How foolish of that silly spendthrift Drayton!

[Noe]

In his blog, Padres exec Paul DePodesta admits that money had a lot to do with the Wolf trade:
"The money involved with Randy's salary and performance bonuses as well as the money to sign a draft pick IF Randy is a Type B free agent could amount to close to $5 million. That being the case, we felt we were much better off trading for Chad Reineke and using that $5 million in some other way."

By the way, those craving some classic Pinwheeling should check out his assessment of the Wolf trade. He lists all the reasons that it makes sense, seems to comprehend all of them, then says it was a stupid idea because (gasp) they will actually have to pay this pitcher three-and-a-half million dollars! For half a season, imagine that! How foolish of that silly spendthrift Drayton!

Yup.  And McLane is also paying Woody Williams and Oscar Villareal (Villareal for next year as well) for doing nothing.  At least it looks like Wolf is going to pitch *this* season.  Teams like the Yankees can afford to pay a Carl Pavano to do nothing, but for the Astros this is not supposed to happen.  Apparently, it does and still folks will call the owner cheap... for no apparent reason it seems.

[Gizzmonic]

From your wikipedia article:

"The Milwaukee Brewers had a run-in with a group of furries at Anthrocon 2007 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania when they were staying in the same hotel for a series with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and departed the day that the convention started. The team claimed that they found the furries "creepy" and both "players and staff reported neighboring rooms generating loud animal noises, barking and other, deep into the night."[59] Jim Powell stated, "going up the elevator is unsettling when you are packed in with a bunch of people who look like they hadn't left their mother's basements since the last convention".[60]"

I can only imagine their consternation:

BRAUN: "Hey Prince, what's with all the mascots?  Is there a college tournament in town or something?"

FIELDER: "I dunno, man.  Maybe Billy knows? Billy, you know about any tournaments this weekend?"

HALL: "Nah man, this, these guys aren't sports mascots."

FIELDER: "So, it's like, some kind of marketing gimmick then?"

HALL: "Prince, Prince, Prince.  Would that it were so simple." (puts hand on Fielder's shoulder).  "You ever hear of 'furry'?" (starts explaining)

FIELDER: "Oh, Good Lord.  I'm never touching meat again."

BRAUN: "Guys?  Y'ever feel like you had the soul of a fox inside you, like you're as wild and free as a fox, and you just wish you could roam free, with your tail flapping in the wind?  Guys?  Where ya' goin'?"  (Looks vainly for Fielder and Hall, then furtively starts towards the convention floor).

[moriartp]

So this trade is basically Chad Reineke + $ for major league innings + a chance at a supplemental round pick? Fine with me.


And Braun, already a ferret by the look of him, would fit right in at a convention of furries.

[Bench]

So this trade is basically Chad Reineke + $ for major league innings + a chance at a supplemental round pick? Fine with me.


And Braun, already a ferret by the look of him, would fit right in at a convention of furries.

Another way to look at it is a $3.5 million dollar premium for a supplemental pick for which the Astros have shown an unwillingness to go over slot to get the best talent available.

[Jacksonian]

Another way to look at it is a $3.5 million dollar premium for a supplemental pick for which the Astros have shown an unwillingness to go over slot to get the best talent available.

Horse. Shit.

[dirty steve]

Horse. Shit.

was the Jordan Lyles deal going over slot?  will a potential Ross Seaton agreement do the same?

[kevwun]

Lyles didn't drop because of signability concerns and it didn't take him long to sign, so I don't think the slot argument applies to him.  He was a guy who flew under the radar of the likes of BA, but not a handful of teams like the Astros and Braves.

If they sign Seaton, it's going to be over slot.

[5+7]

Does anyone know the type of numbers Wolf would have to put up for the rest of the season in order to qualify as a Type B free agent?  This winter, he was a Type C.

[moriartp]

DePodesta mentioned in the comments that Wolf is on the B-C bubble this season, so my guess is that he won't have to do too much better to qualify. I imagine staying healthy would also be a big difference maker.

[Jacksonian]

Does anyone know the type of numbers Wolf would have to put up for the rest of the season in order to qualify as a Type B free agent?  This winter, he was a Type C.

This winter there was no type C usefully.  He was though rather close to being a type B despite having relatively few innings pitched in 06.  If he can stay the course the rest of this year it appears to me he has a good shot at being a type B this winter.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

From your wikipedia article:

"The Milwaukee Brewers had a run-in with a group of furries at Anthrocon 2007 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania when they were staying in the same hotel for a series with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and departed the day that the convention started. The team claimed that they found the furries "creepy" and both "players and staff reported neighboring rooms generating loud animal noises, barking and other, deep into the night."[59] Jim Powell stated, "going up the elevator is unsettling when you are packed in with a bunch of people who look like they hadn't left their mother's basements since the last convention".[60]"

I can only imagine their consternation:

BRAUN: "Hey Prince, what's with all the mascots?  Is there a college tournament in town or something?"

FIELDER: "I dunno, man.  Maybe Billy knows? Billy, you know about any tournaments this weekend?"

HALL: "Nah man, this, these guys aren't sports mascots."

FIELDER: "So, it's like, some kind of marketing gimmick then?"

HALL: "Prince, Prince, Prince.  Would that it were so simple." (puts hand on Fielder's shoulder).  "You ever hear of 'furry'?" (starts explaining)

FIELDER: "Oh, Good Lord.  I'm never touching meat again."

BRAUN: "Guys?  Y'ever feel like you had the soul of a fox inside you, like you're as wild and free as a fox, and you just wish you could roam free, with your tail flapping in the wind?  Guys?  Where ya' goin'?"  (Looks vainly for Fielder and Hall, then furtively starts towards the convention floor).

The Dugout was way ahead of you, with more Uecker.

[strosrays]

This winter there was no type C usefully.  He was though rather close to being a type B despite having relatively few innings pitched in 06.  If he can stay the course the rest of this year it appears to me he has a good shot at being a type B this winter.

I'm a Type A with a jones for cartoon foxes.  I wonder how much I could get.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

So turning this back to trade deadline salary dumpees, does Derek Lowe rate as a dumpee candidate at this point?  I may be alone in this, but I'd love to see Houston acquire another pitcher of this quality (Wolf and Lowe etc...) to look at for next season and/or stockpile more draft picks for the off-season. 

Setting aside that I think he'd help the rotation, it makes some other pitchers available for other roles or for trade.  Specifically, I think Backe's future is much like Sampson's, long relief out of the 'pen.  I have no idea whether Lowe is available or what the Dodgers would want for him.

[Reuben]

So turning this back to trade deadline salary dumpees, does Derek Lowe rate as a dumpee candidate at this point?  I may be alone in this, but I'd love to see Houston acquire another pitcher of this quality (Wolf and Lowe etc...) to look at for next season and/or stockpile more draft picks for the off-season. 

Setting aside that I think he'd help the rotation, it makes some other pitchers available for other roles or for trade.  Specifically, I think Backe's future is much like Sampson's, long relief out of the 'pen.  I have no idea whether Lowe is available or what the Dodgers would want for him.

The Dodgers are only a game back in the West (despite being just 3 games better than the Astros...) so I'd be surprised if they let one of their starters go. Since somebody else (MM?) brought up the possibility of a Wigginton deal with LA though, an article at Dodgers.com named Casey Blake, Adrian Beltre, and Melvin Mora as 3B they were supposedly looking at. Wigginton compares pretty favorably to those guys.
edit: crazy idea of the week: Backe as a closer. That would be... interesting.

[MusicMan]

Blogger attempts to crack the code of the Elias rankings

[Limey]

Blogger attempts to crack the code of the Elias rankings

So, in a nutshell, it's subjective bullshit.

[MusicMan]

So, in a nutshell, it's subjective bullshit.

No, it's objective bullshit.

So here's what I did to get a "snapshot".  They start off with the pitchers for all NL teams as of the end of the year.  Given that, to simplify it, I took the top 80 NL pitchers in starting innings pitched (16 teams * 5 starters).  I then applied the rankings in the 6 indicated categories, for 2007 only.  (Keep in mind 2007 would apply to this as well, so it throws off the exercise, but still...)

Type A NL starting pitchers:
Webb
Dempster
Lincecum
Volquez
Hamels
Lohse
Hudson
Haren
Cook
Sheets
Santana
Lilly
Zambrano
Nolasco
Billingsley
Maine

Type B:
Sanchez
Jurrjens
Maholm
Lowe
Moyer
Parra
Redding
Arroyo
Kimenez
Cain
Peavy
Olsen
Cueto
Pelfrey
Wellemeyer
Looper

Wolf is the first pitcher to miss the cut for type B - which matches well with the previous information that he will be borderline on making Type B compensation.  However, the fact that this goes back 2 years and includes ALL active pitchers (starting) at the end of the year, plus DL, will expand the 20% pool for each type, and so I would guess that he's currently at the lower end of Type B.

Incidentally... Wolf is the first Astro listed in the 2008 rankings; Backe follows 2 behind, with Oswalt 2 behind him.

Also, note that Games and Innings account for 1/3 of the formula, so Wolf can help his cause by simply continuing to pitch.

[BUWebguy]

Looks like BA was higher on Reineke than most here:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2008/266559.html

[kevwun]

It's hard to miss someone who's upside is Chad Qualls.  Reineke might have developed in to a 7th inning guy.  That's not losing much.

[Jacksonian]

Looks like BA was higher on Reineke than most here:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2008/266559.html

Right.  They like the strikeout.  I like how they throw in several caveats then dismiss them in praising the Pads and comparing Reineke to Qualls.  IMO Qualls was better than Reineke at the AAA level, and Qualls' stuff is nastier.  Also, they like Bud Norris more than Reineke, and Norris likely tops out as late inning reliever as well.  If Wolf nets a supplemental first rounder I'd bet over the long run the trade works out for Houston.

[jbm]

I only saw Reineke once, a couple of weeks ago on tv.  I am assuming he was at his best, as he was mowing down OKC, and showed excellent command.  But even after seeing Reineke pitch very well, I can't see the Quall's comparison.  Quall's fastball/sinker gives him a much higher ceiling than Reineke's fastball, and to imply that command issues for a 26 year old, might soon be overcome.....well, I assume the Astros have concluded differently or they wouldn't have made the trade.

Now, if they had traded Norris for Wolf, I'd have concluded they either knew something about his long-term health, or were nuts. 

edited to change qualls to reineke