Stark on Astros

[MusicMan]

Latest Rumblings and Grumblings:

Speaking of clubs that have traded away a ton of players, new Astros GM Ed Wade has subtracted eight of them just in the past couple of weeks, in deals for Miguel Tejada and Jose Valverde. And dating back to last winter, when Tim Purpura was the GM, the Astros have dealt off all of these pitchers: Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, Jason Hirsh, Taylor Buchholz, Troy Patton, Matt Albers, Juan Gutierrez and Dennis Sarfate.

"They look like a team that has a shot at scoring eight runs a game -- and giving up 10," said an official of one team. "They are a better team today than they were at the end of the season. At least they have a lot more name guys. But you have to wonder if they're deep enough. If you don't have eight starting pitchers, 16 or 17 position players and eight or nine relievers lined up, the course of the season will weed that out. And I don't see it there, unless they have more underbelly than a lot of people think."

[juliogotay]

Latest Rumblings and Grumblings:

I think he's right.  Depth will haunt this team this year...particularly on the mound.

[Lumpus]

Yep.  I just don't see anything left in AAA to call up when the injuries start occurring.

Conventional Wisdom is usually that in trades the team getting the single best overall player "wins", so that in theory our 3-1 deals netting the 'better' player should be a net improvement for the club.  But I just don't see much bench depth left and nothing worth mentioning left in the minors until AA level.

I won't even mention our lack of a bona fide #2 or #3 starter still.  Oops., nm.

I have to think that there MUST be a FA pitcher (or preferably two) still to be signed, and maybe more than a handful of spring training invites for the non-tendered vets.

It's sad in a way that our long overdue 'rebuilding' isn't likely to ever occur.  In the last few years it was 'win now' because of Bags/Biggio (and a weak Central Division).  Now they are both gone, but the Central is probably even weaker now.  This is a team that (on paper) could win the Central or get a Wild Card, but lose horribly in the first round against much better pitching. 

/not sure why WadeSmith didn't grab a few players from the minor league portion of the Rule 5
//even a few 'non-prospect' AAA players that could fill in now in an emergency would improve our short term situation
///long term = rebuild the pathetic farm system
////8-10 losses = just like watching the Cubs at Wrigley with the wind blowing out
/////mmmm... slashies

[Froback]

Maybe I am just drinking the kool-aide or something, but the only spot of depth I see with the team is starting pitching.

I think there are enough pitchers for bullpen use, since there was alot of additions to that area this off-season and most of the talent left at the top of the minor league system are guys that project best as bullpen types.

And then looking around the team you:
1B: No real 1B to be found, but typically thought of as easy to find people who can play 1B.
2B: Loretta, Blum
SS: Loretta/Manzella
3B: Blum
LF: Pence (because of other options might be better RF)
CF: Abercrombie, Cruz Jr., Pence
RF: Same as CF
C: Ausmus (and if he is still around Quintero is a decent stop gap)

So really I am not sure their depth is really that bad, now, moving these guys up might cause some bench issues, but any time you have an injury it SHOULD impact the team a little, otherwise it shows how WEAK your starters were if the next guy can step in with no noticeable drop off.

But, these "revelations" should be nothing knew to anyone around here.  Starting pitching is their biggest issue at this time, so it stands to reason that depth in starting pitching should be their area of least depth.

[Jacksonian]

Latest Rumblings and Grumblings:

Going by that team officials numbers needed these are the guys who are currently going to the major league side of spring training:

Need 8 Starting pitchers: Roy, Backe, Wandy, Woody, Sampson, Paulino, Nieve, Cassel

Need 8-9 Relief pitchers: Valverde, Villarreal, Brocail, Geary, McLemore, Wright, Houston, Borkowski, Paronto, Reineke, Randolph

Need 16-17 Position players: Towles, Ausmus, Quintero, Berkman, Matsui, Tejada, Wigginton, Blum, Loretta, Hooper, Perez, Lee Bourn, Pence, Abercrombie, Ramirez, Cruz

There certainly seems to be a lack of quality depth.  With the addition of someone like Benson, if he's healthy, or a healthy Prior later things improve for the starters.  Still, there's room for another reliever or two to the mix.  Catchers and infielders look done.  There still appears to be room to make adjustments to the backup outfielders.

[Limey]

And then looking around the team you:
1B: No real 1B to be found, but typically thought of as easy to find people who can play 1B.
2B: Loretta, Blum
SS: Loretta/Manzella

FWIW, Loretta can play 1st, and did for the 'Stros last year.  I wouldn't be surprised if Blum could play 1B too.

[Jacksonian]

FWIW, Loretta can play 1st, and did for the 'Stros last year.  I wouldn't be surprised if Blum could play 1B too.

I'm concerned about lefty hitting on the bench.

[Jacksonian]

I have to think that there MUST be a FA pitcher (or preferably two) still to be signed, and maybe more than a handful of spring training invites for the non-tendered vets.

/not sure why WadeSmith didn't grab a few players from the minor league portion of the Rule 5
//even a few 'non-prospect' AAA players that could fill in now in an emergency would improve our short term situation

These are jokes right?

[pravata]

These are jokes right?

Is this microphone on?

[Limey]

I'm concerned about lefty hitting on the bench.

There's nothing to worry about.  Literally.

[Gizzmonic]

I'm concerned about lefty hitting on the bench.

That's why I never get completely hammered without a relatively sober friend to keep me in line.

[Bench]

I'm concerned about lefty hitting on the bench.

Who's lefty? Should I be concerned also? Thanks for looking out for me.

[Froback]

I'm concerned about lefty hitting on the bench.

I am too, but not sure I am as concerned as you are.  Not meaning to down play the need for it, but who is going to be pinch hit for with a lefty other than the pitcher?

Bourn, nope he's a lefty; Matsui, nope he's a switch-hitter, Tejada, Berkman, Lee, Pence... I doubt it; About the best candidates are Wigginton and Towles.  

So while I am sure there will be 150+ ABs or so where a lefty bat is perfered, how many of those will be in games where its impact is significant.  Then take a look at the options today vs 07.  In 07 the lefty bench was mostly Lamb and OP (since Scott started more often than not until the season was decided).  In 08 you have Blum and Cruz Jr.  I include Cruz Jr. because at this point it just seems to make too much sense compared to other known options at this point.  The loss of OP probably won't be that significant since he didn't do all that much in 07.  The loss of Lamb we ALL knew would be an impact, but there was no way they were going to get someone as good in FA, IMO.

To me the bigger impact is who is going to be the POWER off the bench.  I don't care if righty or lefty.  Looking at the bench with the best guess as to who is going to be on it:
Loretta, no power
Blum, no power
Ausmus, no power
Abercrombie, no power
Cruz Jr, moderate power, which I guess is probably about what Lamb was.

So while there should be SOME concern about lefty bat off the bench, I am not sure if this is really something to worry about.  Starting pitching and depth in pitching in general ARE issues to be concerned with.  But given the offense this line-up SHOULD produce, I am not sure the slight dip in lefty bench ability will be THAT big an impact.  It is not like right-handed bench batting is that much better.

[juliogotay]

I am too, but not sure I am as concerned as you are.  Not meaning to down play the need for it, but who is going to be pinch hit for with a lefty other than the pitcher?

Bourn, nope he's a lefty; Matsui, nope he's a switch-hitter, Tejada, Berkman, Lee, Pence... I doubt it; About the best candidates are Wigginton and Towles.  

So while I am sure there will be 150+ ABs or so where a lefty bat is perfered, how many of those will be in games where its impact is significant.  Then take a look at the options today vs 07.  In 07 the lefty bench was mostly Lamb and OP (since Scott started more often than not until the season was decided).  In 08 you have Blum and Cruz Jr.  I include Cruz Jr. because at this point it just seems to make too much sense compared to other known options at this point.  The loss of OP probably won't be that significant since he didn't do all that much in 07.  The loss of Lamb we ALL knew would be an impact, but there was no way they were going to get someone as good in FA, IMO.

To me the bigger impact is who is going to be the POWER off the bench.  I don't care if righty or lefty.  Looking at the bench with the best guess as to who is going to be on it:
Loretta, no power
Blum, no power
Ausmus, no power
Abercrombie, no power
Cruz Jr, moderate power, which I guess is probably about what Lamb was.

So while there should be SOME concern about lefty bat off the bench, I am not sure if this is really something to worry about.  Starting pitching and depth in pitching in general ARE issues to be concerned with.  But given the offense this line-up SHOULD produce, I am not sure the slight dip in lefty bench ability will be THAT big an impact.  It is not like right-handed bench batting is that much better.

Tremendous drop in quality between Lamb and Cruz as a hitter IMHO.

[Froback]

Tremendous drop in quality between Lamb and Cruz as a hitter IMHO.

Not arguing that, but we are talking about 162 ABs max and Lamb played some so he was not always available off the bench to be in that role.  And while these ABs can occur in big moments, they don't always.

There WILL be an impact.  But is the impact going to cost the team games?  I am sure it might, and probably will cost a game or 2.  But I also have to judge that relative to other areas of concern.

This list includes (but may not be limited to): Starting pitching, Bullpen depth, Bench Power, Defensive at SS.  Compared to those where do you rate lefty bench bats?  I am not sure it is in my top 2 or 3.

[Mike S]

Is this microphone on?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAd3ospV9ig

[Reuben]

Abercrombie has power. In his major league career he has 7 HR in 331 ABs. In 2007, he slugged .584 in AAA. In 2005, 25 HR between two levels.

[Lefty]

Who's lefty? Should I be concerned also? Thanks for looking out for me.

Just gettin by on gettin by's my stock and trade.

[Lumpus]

Cruz Jr looked like he was going to be a stud when he first came into the majors.
Lots of unrealized potential there.  Maybe being home with dad will give his career a little wakeup.

[Noe]

Going by that team officials numbers needed these are the guys who are currently going to the major league side of spring training:

Need 8 Starting pitchers: Roy, Backe, Wandy, Woody, Sampson, Paulino, Nieve, Cassel

Need 8-9 Relief pitchers: Valverde, Villarreal, Brocail, Geary, McLemore, Wright, Houston, Borkowski, Paronto, Reineke, Randolph

Need 16-17 Position players: Towles, Ausmus, Quintero, Berkman, Matsui, Tejada, Wigginton, Blum, Loretta, Hooper, Perez, Lee Bourn, Pence, Abercrombie, Ramirez, Cruz

There certainly seems to be a lack of quality depth.  With the addition of someone like Benson, if he's healthy, or a healthy Prior later things improve for the starters.  Still, there's room for another reliever or two to the mix.  Catchers and infielders look done.  There still appears to be room to make adjustments to the backup outfielders.

What Houston seems to be counting on for depth is the fringe players, like Ryan Houston and Jack Cassel being more than just fringe.  So you don't have prospects, eh?  Well, just throw out the guys who are fringe AAAers and let them fill in the blanks until you do have depth (a couple of years down the road).  Is it a sane approach to depth?  Not really the way most GMs would have depth in their organization, but then again Houston was somewhat thin as is and what they needed more than depth was front line guys.

The front line guys they went with last year provided a season of 79 wins.  Granted, two key front liners were hurt (Jennings and Everett), some were hurt for extended periods of time (Pence).  Some front liners under performed badly (Burke), some for a time during the season (Berkman).  Some just didn't make enough of a contribution for various sundry reasons (Lidge, Biggio, Sampson, Woody, Scott).  So in many ways, the first order of business is the front line: Bourn, Matsui, Tejada, Towles, Villareal, Valverde, Geary, Brocail represent a huge shift from the norm last year.  Any of those guys fall prey to what their predecessors had happen to them in 2007 and it's a bad season all over again.  And much like last year, the depth won't be there to cover them.

The difference this year is that while the depth problem is still evident like last year (this is not new to the Astros), the plus side of getting better performance from the front line is a huge possibility.  Besides, the most significant change in terms of depth I can remember happening last year is Matt Albers replacing Jennings in the lineup and Pence replacing Burke.  I think Paulino can do no worse than Albers and quite possibly can do much better to replace a struggling starter.  Pence?  Now that is going to be hard to replicate next year.  If Bourn struggles, then you have Abercrombie ready to jump in (or Yordany Ramirez).  I doubt you'll get a Pence-like year out of either one, but I also think that Abercrombie is underrated as a player and has the potential to be quite good.  Has he been in the past?  No, he's been Chris Burke bad in the majors actually (batting).  So for now, pray nothing happens to Bourn and that Abercrombie is slowly brought along to make himself a good 4th outfielder and eventually pushing for a starting job with his talent.

[Froback]

Abercrombie has power. In his major league career he has 7 HR in 331 ABs. In 2007, he slugged .584 in AAA. In 2005, 25 HR between two levels.

While he did have a very good year in AAA last year, his career minor league numbers prior to that (2000-2005) were: .258/.297/.418.
His best year prior to last year was 2005 where he split between A and AA (2006 he was in the majors all season from the best infor I could find). In that 2005 season he was  .274/.317/.485 in A and .253/.315/.483 in AA.

Since I didn't exactly follow this guy, I have to trust what others have learned about his, and according to them he does have talent and might be able to be that power bat, but so far has not been able to demonstrate that consistently at any level until last year.  Maybe he figured it all out last year.  Sometimes that happends.  At this point he is a big '?' though.

[Jacksonian]

What Houston seems to be counting on for depth is the fringe players, like Ryan Houston and Jack Cassel being more than just fringe.  So you don't have prospects, eh?  Well, just throw out the guys who are fringe AAAers and let them fill in the blanks until you do have depth (a couple of years down the road).  Is it a sane approach to depth?  Not really the way most GMs would have depth in their organization, but then again Houston was somewhat thin as is and what they needed more than depth was front line guys.

The front line guys they went with last year provided a season of 79 wins.  Granted, two key front liners were hurt (Jennings and Everett), some were hurt for extended periods of time (Pence).  Some front liners under performed badly (Burke), some for a time during the season (Berkman).  Some just didn't make enough of a contribution for various sundry reasons (Lidge, Biggio, Sampson, Woody, Scott).  So in many ways, the first order of business is the front line: Bourn, Matsui, Tejada, Towles, Villareal, Valverde, Geary, Brocail represent a huge shift from the norm last year.  Any of those guys fall prey to what their predecessors had happen to them in 2007 and it's a bad season all over again.  And much like last year, the depth won't be there to cover them.

The difference this year is that while the depth problem is still evident like last year (this is not new to the Astros), the plus side of getting better performance from the front line is a huge possibility.  Besides, the most significant change in terms of depth I can remember happening last year is Matt Albers replacing Jennings in the lineup and Pence replacing Burke.  I think Paulino can do no worse than Albers and quite possibly can do much better to replace a struggling starter.  Pence?  Now that is going to be hard to replicate next year.  If Bourn struggles, then you have Abercrombie ready to jump in (or Yordany Ramirez).  I doubt you'll get a Pence-like year out of either one, but I also think that Abercrombie is underrated as a player and has the potential to be quite good.  Has he been in the past?  No, he's been Chris Burke bad in the majors actually (batting).  So for now, pray nothing happens to Bourn and that Abercrombie is slowly brought along to make himself a good 4th outfielder and eventually pushing for a starting job with his talent.

Wade thinks Yordany Ramirez has far more talent than Abercrombie.  If, IF, and that's a big IF, Ramirez stops being a free-swinger and actually approaches his at-bats like a leadoff man, he'll replace Bourn in short order.  Did I mention IF(!)?  If you're going to watch for development from one guy in Round Rock this year it's him.

[DVauthrin]

Wade thinks Yordany Ramirez has far more talent than Abercrombie.  If, IF, and that's a big IF, Ramirez stops being a free-swinger and actually approaches his at-bats like a leadoff man, he'll replace Bourn in short order.  Did I mention IF(!)?  If you're going to watch for development from one guy in Round Rock this year it's him.

I think you are really reaching with the IF scenario you presented.      You are underestimating bourn in my honest opinion.  They didn't trade for him to be replaced in "short order" if another prospect develops.  He himself was a quality prospect.  Not that I think Ramirez can't develop or be a good player by any means, and I respect your opinion on minor league talent.

[Reuben]

While he did have a very good year in AAA last year, his career minor league numbers prior to that (2000-2005) were: .258/.297/.418.
His best year prior to last year was 2005 where he split between A and AA (2006 he was in the majors all season from the best infor I could find). In that 2005 season he was  .274/.317/.485 in A and .253/.315/.483 in AA.

Since I didn't exactly follow this guy, I have to trust what others have learned about his, and according to them he does have talent and might be able to be that power bat, but so far has not been able to demonstrate that consistently at any level until last year.  Maybe he figured it all out last year.  Sometimes that happends.  At this point he is a big '?' though.

When you're talking about power off the bench aren't there just about always questions about the overall ability of the player? Otherwise we'd be talking about a starter, either that or a young guy who needs to play full-time in AAA, not ride the bench on the big club (see Pence, Hunter early 2007). All I'm saying is Abercrombie does have power, that much I can see in the recent numbers, that's all I have to go on. It's cool that we have somebody like Noe who knows stuff to tell us Reggie could be a breakout waiting to happen as well.

[Jacksonian]

I think you are really reaching with the IF scenario you presented.      You are underestimating bourn in my honest opinion.  They didn't trade for him to be replaced in "short order" if another prospect develops.  Not that I think Ramirez can't develop or be a good player by any means, and I respect your opinion on minor league talent.

There was a great deal of consternation in the Pads system over Ramirez.  His coaches and many of the development people wanted to keep him.  In the end Towers let him go.  Ramirez is as good defensively as any in the majors right now.  If he can hit at a respectable clip and get on base at ~.350 (which is kinda the bar for Bourn) then he's major league ready.  Did I mention that he hits for extra bases at about the same clip as Beltran?  There's power in his game that his free swinging masks.

[DVauthrin]

There was a great deal of consternation in the Pads system over Ramirez.  His coaches and many of the development people wanted to keep him.  In the end Towers let him go.  Ramirez is as good defensively as any in the majors right now.  If he can hit at a respectable clip and get on base at ~.350 (which is kinda the bar for Bourn) then he's major league ready.  Did I mention that he hits for extra bases at about the same clip as Beltran?  There's power in his game that his free swinging masks.

I can see your excitement in that case.   I guess if he does develop into his potential the astros should have a valued trade chip in CF one way or the other between the two as I think bourn will hold his own as big leaguer as well.

[Jacksonian]

I can see your excitement in that case.   I guess if he does develop into his potential the astros should have a valued trade chip in CF one way or the other between the two as I think bourn will hold his own as big leaguer as well.

I wasn't trying to knock Bourn at all.  If he can get on base at a good clip then he's a major league leadoff hitter and centerfielder for a long time.  I was trying to point out that Ramirez has a higher ceiling than Bourn.  Enough so that Wade would happily deal Bourn to get a fully developed Ramirez in the lineup.

[DVauthrin]

I wasn't trying to knock Bourn at all.  If he can get on base at a good clip then he's a major league leadoff hitter and centerfielder for a long time.  I was trying to point out that Ramirez has a higher ceiling than Bourn.  Enough so that Wade would happily deal Bourn to get a fully developed Ramirez in the lineup.

It's nice to hear your takes on minor league talent, and I apologize if I seemed defensive.   I didn't realize how good ramirez could be as well, prior to this description.   I don't get to see all the youngsters play in their various minor league levels so scouting reports from someone that does are well appreciated by me.   

[Jacksonian]

It's nice to hear your takes on minor league talent, and I apologize if I seemed defensive.   I didn't realize how good ramirez could be as well, prior to this description.   I don't get to see all the youngsters play in their various minor league levels so scouting reports from someone that does are well appreciated by me.   

When a guy is let go as a minor league free agent it's pretty easy to dismiss or not give him much thought.  I talked to a Pads guy about him.  There were a few quite angry people in their org when Ramirez was let go.  They think he might have turned the corner late last year.  There's always the chance he'll be able to get on base but not show the power.  In that case Bourn's already in Houston.  We'll see.  Did I mention IF(!!!!!)?

[Noe]

When you're talking about power off the bench aren't there just about always questions about the overall ability of the player? Otherwise we'd be talking about a starter, either that or a young guy who needs to play full-time in AAA, not ride the bench on the big club (see Pence, Hunter early 2007). All I'm saying is Abercrombie does have power, that much I can see in the recent numbers, that's all I have to go on. It's cool that we have somebody like Noe who knows stuff to tell us Reggie could be a breakout waiting to happen as well.

I just have this sense that Abercrombie finally marries the talent for hitting a baseball a very long way and being a major leaguer together.  It reminds me of the days of Carl Everett flying under the radar for many a season with the Yankees and Mets and finally putting it together in Houston as a fourth outfielder and then a starter.

Abercrombie is a sleeper to keep an eye on next season.  But one thing I must say right now, I am a reknown jinx of young players who I think will have breakout seasons.  Ask Fernando Nieve, ask Reeshard Hidalgo (missed it by one year), ask the other prospects who never even made it (Wilfredo Rodriquez, Carlos Hernandez).  Hunter Pence better thank his lucky stars I did not pronounce him the next great player in the Houston organization, he head would've fell off running up Tal's hill one day if I had.

[JaneDoe]

But one thing I must say right now, I am a reknown jinx of young players who I think will have breakout seasons. 

Then shut up why don't ya?

[Noe]

Then shut up why don't ya?

I'm still looking for a twelve step program for "I can't help myself talking about baseball and especially my really dysfunctional desire to pronounce good things for prospects and sleepers".