Lineup Machinations 101

[Noe]

If you haven't read Jim Molony's article on Cecil Cooper's thinking in terms of lineup, go read now.  It's pretty damn interesting:

Astros Introduce Their New Leadoff Hitter

Some excerpts:

But manager Cecil Cooper has given this some thought, and he's had conversations with his top RBI producers to make sure there are no unwanted surprises when it's time to solidify the batting order next year.

Obviously, the club's newest acquisition, Michael Bourn, will play center field and lead off. Cooper has set nothing in stone, but don't be surprised if Hunter Pence hits third, with Lance Berkman dropping to fourth or fifth. Carlos Lee, last year's cleanup hitter, could be batting fifth.

Cooper spoke with both Berkman and Lee about the possible shift, and both appeared to be receptive to moving down in the order.

Berkman has hit in the cleanup spot in past years but enjoyed great success as the No. 3 hitter. With less speed than Pence, however, he may be morphing into a cleanup hitter as he enters his eighth full season in the Majors.

"He's not an old guy, but he's not a young guy, either," Cooper said of Berkman, who will turn 32 in February. "I see him moving down in the lineup, to four or five. Hunter is the more likely [No. 3 guy]."

There is no confusion, however, about the leadoff spot. Cooper is thrilled to have Bourn at the top of the order, and relayed as much when he spoke to the 24-year-old center fielder on Wednesday, soon after the five-player trade with the Phillies was announced.

"I said, 'You've got a new name -- you're the igniter,' " Cooper said. "He has to be the guy to set the tone for us."

Cooper sees Bourn as a Willy Taveras-type player.

"He can create excitement," Cooper said. "The same kind of speed, same kind of player. Leadoff hitter with speed, puts pressure on the defense. That's what we need."

Outstanding!  Go Coop!

[Froback]

Holy shit!  You mean I am starting to think like a Major League manager... damn it took me long enough...

Either that, or I was being possessed by some greater baseball mind for a brief time... jury is still out on that one.

[Noe]

Holy shit!  You mean I am starting to think like a Major League manager... damn it took me long enough...

Either that, or I was being possessed by some greater baseball mind for a brief time... jury is still out on that one.

If Coop drops Bekman to 4, Lee to 5 and Pence produces in the 3 hole, that is going to be one hell of a middle lineup.  So if Bourn and #2 hitter are good at getting on-base, that makes your 1-5 one of the better ones in the NL.  That means that the pressure is somewhat off of Wiggington, Towles and Everett.  For Towles, that is huge.  For Wiggington, he's got to feel that all he has to do is produce solid, not eye-popping, just solid numbers offensively and work at being a solid defensive third baseman. 

Everett is Everett.

The key now is Bourn and the #2.

[Mr. Happy]

The key now is Bourn and the #2.

Eggszactly. Bourn is seen as an upgrade from Anderson, pure and simple. Now, we need a #2 hitter, and I don't think that Burke is it.

[BUWebguy]

Now, we need a [octothorpe] 2 hitter, and I don't think that Burke is it.

Octothorpe? Is that like an eight-tool player?

[ValpoCory]

Octothorpe? Is that like an eight-tool player?

SpiderMan 4 ... starring Otis Thorpe as ...

[Ty in Tampa]

Octothorpe? Is that like an eight-tool player?

El Jugador of the Ocho Herramientos.

[subnuclear]

Octathorpe is a pound sign. 

[Noe]

Octathorpe is a pound sign. 

FIFH.  Thanks.

[Reuben]

Octothorpe? Is that like an eight-tool player?

Or an eight-fingered player. He can simultaneously choke up and choke down on the bat. Er, that didn't come out right.

[Fredia]

Eggszactly. Bourn is seen as an upgrade from Anderson, pure and simple. Now, we need a #2 hitter, and I don't think that Burke is it.

oh yea somehow in all of this i forgot burke was still an astro. wonder if there is oreders from above THOU SHALL PLAY BURKE

[Andyzipp]

oh yea somehow in all of this i forgot burke was still an astro. wonder if there is oreders from above THOU SHALL PLAY BURKE

The Burke love was Purpura's.  People have been fired because of thier love of Burke.

[VirtualBob]

Has anybody else noticed how closely the capabilities of this new lineup match the roles uncle Jim has discussed in various places on this forum?

eerie.

[Andyzipp]

Has anybody else noticed how closely the capabilities of this new lineup match the roles uncle Jim has discussed in various places on this forum?

eerie.

It's almost like...follow me here...Jim knows what he's talking about.

[VirtualBob]

It's almost like...follow me here...Jim knows what he's talking about.

Now that's going to be some controversial speculation right there! 

[Arky Vaughan]

Has anybody else noticed how closely the capabilities of this new lineup match the roles uncle Jim has discussed in various places on this forum?

Coach said the #3 hitter should be the best hitter on the team. Is that Pence, Berkman or Lee?

[NeilT]

Coach said the #3 hitter should be the best hitter on the team. Is that Pence, Berkman or Lee?

yes.

[JimR]

Coach said the #3 hitter should be the best hitter on the team. Is that Pence, Berkman or Lee?

my vote for #3 eventually is Pence because of the other things Berkman and Lee bring to the table. i'd follow Noe's lead and bat Berkman/Lee 4 and 5, although they could be reversed. i just think Lee is a better RBI guy than Berkman b/c of his two strike approach, which in my world puts him at 5.

whoa, Zipp! that's pretty far out on the limb for the TZ.

[TheWizard]

If it is Pence/Berkman/Lee, I wouldn't mind us resigning Loretta to man 2B and hit in the #2 slot.  Although it is disconcerting that is he a bit older and he trailed off towards the end of last year.

Hopefully Wade lands us a #2 pitcher so all these lineup machinations are worth discussing.

[Froback]

Coach said the #3 hitter should be the best hitter on the team. Is that Pence, Berkman or Lee?

It is all relative though.  It is not like you set a line-up one spot at a time. You generally have to consider all spots together (or at least the prime spots), rather than each in a vacuum.  As such, while Pence might not be the BEST hitter, because of what the other "best" hitters bring to the table, Pence becomes the "best" candidate for the #3 spot.  Berkman seems to have more power, and Lee seems to be the best RBI type (at least based on the last couple of years).

But as Coach has stated, there is some play room so to speak among those 3.  But when trying to consider all spots as a group rather than individual spots, it seems like the best combo is Pence/Berkman/Lee in that order.  And while they may go 2/3/4, seems more appropriate to have them 3/4/5.  I think anyone who bats in the 2-hole (in front of those 3) would find they "SHOULD" have a bump in offensive productivity than they would batting anywhere else.  Which should also factor into who is placed where.

Where you bat in a given line-up (not just any line-up) will affect your productivity.  Some hitters are good no matter where you bat them, but there are always spots where they are better than others.  The idea is to put the hitters in an order that maximizes their collective production, rather than considering each in a vacuum.

ETA: Which is why strict statistical analysis is not the best way to determine a line-up card.

[Noe]

Coach said the #3 hitter should be the best hitter on the team. Is that Pence, Berkman or Lee?

If sandwiched between Bourn and a #2 guy getting on-base and Berkman hitting like he normally does along with Lee, the idea of Pence getting a boatload of fastballs to hit (instead of those sliders that break away from the plate and make him look hapless at the plate) makes him a very good hitter.  In fact, the idea of Pence and fastball is so good that Pence will *look* like the best hitter on the team once everything is said and done.

[Froback]

If sandwiched between Bourn and a #2 guy getting on-base and Berkman hitting like he normally does along with Lee, the idea of Pence getting a boatload of fastballs to hit (instead of those sliders that break away from the plate and make him look hapless at the plate) makes him a very good hitter.  In fact, the idea of Pence and fastball is so good that Pence will *look* like the best hitter on the team once everything is said and done.

I think he has the chance to be the "scariest" hitter, because of his agressiveness and speed. Especially infront of two very solid hitters like Berkman and Lee.  But this does depend on 1 and 2 getting on consistently in front of those 3. 

While I think Bourn was brought into be the 1, I don't think it is 100% that he will be that.  I still want to believe that Anderson can push for it (mostly because I want Bourn to play with that kind of hunger, more than I think Josh will beat him out).

[JimR]

I think he has the chance to be the "scariest" hitter, because of his agressiveness and speed. Especially infront of two very solid hitters like Berkman and Lee.  But this does depend on 1 and 2 getting on consistently in front of those 3. 

While I think Bourn was brought into be the 1, I don't think it is 100% that he will be that.  I still want to believe that Anderson can push for it (mostly because I want Bourn to play with that kind of hunger, more than I think Josh will beat him out).

they did not trade Lidge for a guy who might be a benchwarmer.

[Froback]

they did not trade Lidge for a guy who might be a benchwarmer.

I agree, I think they plan on Bourn being the CF and lead off hitter.  I do too.  I guess my point is that I want Bourn to "earn" the spot as much as it is given to him.  Wouldn't it be nice if Anderson does push Bourn?  Not saying it will happen, but I think it will make the Astros better if it happens, especially if Bourn clearly beats out Anderson who IS pushing for the starting spot.

I want the best for the Astros.  (don't mis-construe to thing I am advocating Anderson over Bourn)

[JimR]

I agree, I think they plan on Bourn being the CF and lead off hitter.  I do too.  I guess my point is that I want Bourn to "earn" the spot as much as it is given to him.  Wouldn't it be nice if Anderson does push Bourn?  Not saying it will happen, but I think it will make the Astros better if it happens, especially if Bourn clearly beats out Anderson who IS pushing for the starting spot.

I want the best for the Astros.  (don't mis-construe to thing I am advocating Anderson over Bourn)

my bet is that Anderson will be elsewhere. i have no info to that effect, though.

[Froback]

my bet is that Anderson will be elsewhere. i have no info to that effect, though.

I could buy any number of people being moved this off-season based on the fact that the team has already shown a stronger willingness to trade than in previous years.

If Anderson and Scott are traded (pure speculation mind you), who would fill the role as 4th OFer?  Assuming that is not something they get back when moving these two.

[pravata]

I could buy any number of people being moved this off-season based on the fact that the team has already shown a stronger willingness to trade than in previous years.

If Anderson and Scott are traded (pure speculation mind you), who would fill the role as 4th OFer?  Assuming that is not something they get back when moving these two.

Not an idle question either.  Pence seems prone to injuries.  Strained hip flexor? He says, "feels like those other times".  Injured wrist while sliding?  He says, "yeah that happens all the time."   They need someone durable for the 4th.  Scott doesn't fit that description.  And Anderson may not have the experience for effective spot starts.

[Noe]

Not an idle question either.  Pence seems prone to injuries.  Strained hip flexor? He says, "feels like those other times".  Injured wrist while sliding?  He says, "yeah that happens all the time."   They need someone durable for the 4th.  Scott doesn't fit that description.  And Anderson may not have the experience for effective spot starts.

Abercrombie is a good candidate if he comes in ready to compete for a job this spring.  He could be an outstanding 4th outfielder.

[JaneDoe]

It is all relative though.  It is not like you set a line-up one spot at a time. You generally have to consider all spots together (or at least the prime spots), rather than each in a vacuum. 

I think anyone who bats in the 2-hole (in front of those 3) would find they "SHOULD" have a bump in offensive productivity than they would batting anywhere else.  Which should also factor into who is placed where.

Where you bat in a given line-up (not just any line-up) will affect your productivity.  Some hitters are good no matter where you bat them, but there are always spots where they are better than others.  The idea is to put the hitters in an order that maximizes their collective production, rather than considering each in a vacuum.

ETA: Which is why strict statistical analysis is not the best way to determine a line-up card.

OK, please don't blast me for this.  (Takes a deep breath)

Would Adam Everett ever be considered in the 2-hole?  I think that at one time he was tried there and did not do a horrible job.  He has some speed, and makes contact (but alot of outs).

I am really not trying to irritate anyone, just would like to have a serious answer without getting lambasted. Thanks.
(Exhales)

[Noe]

OK, please don't blast me for this.  (Takes a deep breath)

Would Adam Everett ever be considered in the 2-hole?  I think that at one time he was tried there and did not do a horrible job.  He has some speed, and makes contact (but alot of outs).

I am really not trying to irritate anyone, just would like to have a serious answer without getting lambasted. Thanks.
(Exhales)

I think he's a good candidate, but I'm concerned about his leg and if he has the ability to bounce back 100% if necessary.  The reality is bat control in the two hole and a good OBP.  Everett needs to work on OBP, whereas some of the candidates talked about already were OBP guys or excellent bat control #2s.  Chris Burke and Adam Everett as the defaults could battle it out for the #2 if necessary.

[hillbillyken]

Everett is a very interesting idea. As Noe pointed out the position in the line up can greatly effect what types of pitches a hitter will see. And you can only assume Everett would see many more quality pitches between Borne and Pence than he has seen between Ausmus and the pitcher. The art of moving over a runner and being patient while Borne is on base. Everett may be just the type of guy to get the job done?

[Jacksonian]

OK, please don't blast me for this.  (Takes a deep breath)

Would Adam Everett ever be considered in the 2-hole?  I think that at one time he was tried there and did not do a horrible job.  He has some speed, and makes contact (but alot of outs).

I am really not trying to irritate anyone, just would like to have a serious answer without getting lambasted. Thanks.
(Exhales)

We've actually discussed this some time ago.  Some of us were in favor of it, including me.  I like the way he looked at the plate in the 2-hole.  But, I'm with Noe now on the concern for his leg and being 100%.  Don't know if Coop would go for it.

[JimR]

We've actually discussed this some time ago.  Some of us were in favor of it, including me.  I like the way he looked at the plate in the 2-hole.  But, I'm with Noe now on the concern for his leg and being 100%.  Don't know if Coop would go for it.

that is where i always have thought he should be.

[Astroholic]

that is where i always have thought he should be.

Me also

[Matt]

If the Astros signed someone like Iguchi who has a bit more pop would it be best to bat him lower in the lineup with AE at the 2 spot?

[JimR]

If the Astros signed someone like Iguchi who has a bit more pop would it be best to bat him lower in the lineup with AE at the 2 spot?

no

[Arky Vaughan]

Batting Everett there would be a marvelous way to compete for the lowest OBP of any No. 2 hitter in the majors.

[hillbillyken]

If the Astros signed someone like Iguchi who has a bit more pop would it be best to bat him lower in the lineup with AE at the 2 spot?

What? ...Why?...Is that some sort of trick question?

[JimR]

Batting Everett there would be a marvelous way to compete for the lowest OBP of any No. 2 hitter in the majors.

not necessarily.

[Astroholic]

Batting Everett there would be a marvelous way to compete for the lowest OBP of any No. 2 hitter in the majors.

Possibly, but he did pretty well when 1 m put him there and left him.  And AE can hit a fastball, which he would see alot more of batting ahead of PBL that Ausmus/Picher.

[Arky Vaughan]

Possibly, but he did pretty well when 1 m put him there and left him.  And AE can hit a fastball, which he would see alot more of batting ahead of PBL that Ausmus/Picher.

He batted .290/.330/.402 in 382 plate appearances at No. 2 in 2004. If they could get that out of him again, that'd be great. It'd be pretty surprising, however, if moving him from No. 8 to No. 2 would result in a 50-point surge over the batting average, OBP and slugging percentage posted by Everett since 2004. And even at a .330 OBP, he wouldn't exactly be a prime candidate for No. 2.

[Phil_in_CS]

AE would be seeing a lot more fastballs with Bourn on base in front of him.

[NeilT]

Towles second?

[Arky Vaughan]

AE would be seeing a lot more fastballs with Bourn on base in front of him.

This has been noted before. It still doesn't mean he'd be a particularly suitable No. 2 hitter.

[Astroholic]

This has been noted before. It still doesn't mean he'd be a particularly suitable No. 2 hitter.

I guess it depends upon what you think is suitable.  Some say that Loretta is the ideal man for hitting second.  I say he is too slow.

[JimR]

This has been noted before. It still doesn't mean he'd be a particularly suitable No. 2 hitter.

pray tell, why?

[Arky Vaughan]

I guess it depends upon what you think is suitable.  Some say that Loretta is the ideal man for hitting second.  I say he is too slow.

Other than his OBP, Everett's skills are archetypical for No. 2 -- a great bunter, handles the bat well, runs well. But topping out at .330 isn't particularly attractive, and that's not an isolated opinion. If you look at the OBPs at No. 2 across the majors the last several seasons, .330 trends toward the low side. In other words, the players teams have used at No. 2 tend to get on base more often than that. And, of course, that assumes that Everett would be able to get on base that often if he were placed in the No. 2 slot again. That's not a given, particularly considering, as Noe points out, Everett's recovery from injury. If the Astros re-sign Loretta as their starting second baseman, it'd be far better to see him at No. 2. He also handles the bat well, and while he may not bunt or run as well as Everett, he more than makes up for that with his tendency to get on base.

[Arky Vaughan]

pray tell, why?

See my post above. As someone once wrote: "#2 - another on-base spot, should be a good bunter, must be willing to take pitches in steal situations, an ability to hit behind the runner is helpful because this is a hit and run spot." I don't think he's got the on-base part anymore, if he ever did.

[Astroholic]

If the Astros re-sign Loretta as their starting second baseman, it'd be far better to see him at No. 2.

I guess we will just have to disagree on this and let it go.

[Arky Vaughan]

See my post above. As someone once wrote: "#2 - another on-base spot, should be a good bunter, must be willing to take pitches in steal situations, an ability to hit behind the runner is helpful because this is a hit and run spot." I don't think he's got the on-base part anymore, if he ever did.

Also, Everett tends to have one of the poorer strikeout-to-walk ratios in the majors. Is that who you want at the plate in a hit-and-run situation?

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Also, Everett tends to have one of the poorer strikeout-to-walk ratios in the majors. Is that who you want at the plate in a hit-and-run situation?

Is it possible that is influenced by where he hit in the lineup and role he filled in that spot? 

[EasTexAstro]

Also, Everett tends to have one of the poorer strikeout-to-walk ratios in the majors. Is that who you want at the plate in a hit-and-run situation?

Is that ratio as a #2 hitter, or just overall. Batting in front of the pitcher or catcher might call on the hitter to be a little more agressive.

[Arky Vaughan]

Is it possible that is influenced by where he hit in the lineup and role he filled in that spot?

Anything's possible. But in 2004 as a No. 2 hitter, Everett had 52 strikeouts and 15 walks. That ratio was worst in the majors among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances at No. 2.

[JimR]

Also, Everett tends to have one of the poorer strikeout-to-walk ratios in the majors. Is that who you want at the plate in a hit-and-run situation?

different approach batting 8th. in how many of those Ks was a runner moving?

[Arky Vaughan]

Is that ratio as a #2 hitter, or just overall. Batting in front of the pitcher or catcher might call on the hitter to be a little more agressive.

His career strikeout-to-walk ratio as a No. 2 hitter is 3.0 (52-to-17). Everywhere else in the line-up, it's 2.6 (295 to 114). If you just take it as a percentage of plate appearances, it looks a bit better, as he struck out in 13% of his plate appeances as a No. 2, 15% of his plate appearances everywhere else in the line-up. But the numbers don't suggest that his strikeout rates are high merely because of where he was batting in the line-up.

[Arky Vaughan]

different approach batting 8th. in how many of those Ks was a runner moving?

His strikeout-to-walk ratio was worse at No. 2 than at No. 8. I think that may be misleading, however, since a No. 8 hitter gets walked more often than he otherwise might because he's in front of the pitcher.

But throwing out the walks and just using strikeouts as a percentage of at-bats, Everett has struck out in 14.7% of his at-bats at No. 2, 16.6% of his at-bats at No. 7 and 15.5% of his at-bats at No. 8. He's better at No. 2, but not markably so.

[JimR]

His strikeout-to-walk ratio was worse at No. 2 than No. 8. I think that may be misleading, however, since a No. 8 hitter, even Everett, might get walked more often in front of the pitcher.

But throwing out the walks and just using strikeouts as a percentage of at-bats, Everett has struck out in 14.7% of his at-bats at No. 2, 16.6% of his at-bats at No. 7 and 15.5% of his at-bats at No. 8. He's better at No. 2, but not markably so.

means nothing to me until he is put in at #2 and left there.

[Arky Vaughan]

By the way, I'm not saying that Everett might not be a better hitter at No. 2 than he is at No. 8, that he doesn't have some very attactive skills for a No. 2 hitter (excellent bunter, handles the bat well, runs well) or that Everett shouldn't be in the line-up at all because of his offensive skills. I just don't think he gets on base frequently enough to be a very good No. 2 hitter.

[Arky Vaughan]

means nothing to me until he is put in at #2 and left there.

He was put in at No. 2 and left there for a good chunk of the season in 2004, and he struck out slightly less often than when he was at No. 8. Why does that mean nothing to you? Was it not long enough?

[JimR]

He was put in at No. 2 and left there for a good chunk of the season in 2004, and he struck out slightly less often than when he was at No. 8. Why does that mean nothing to you? Was it not long enough?

nope. i'd also like to know what they told/expected him to do at #2.

[Arky Vaughan]

nope. i'd also like to know what they told/expected him to do at #2.

They've been free to use him there since 2004 and haven't. They must have their reasons for that decision.

[JimR]

They've been free to use him there since 2004 and haven't. They must have their reasons for that decision.

no doubt they do. i just think he's wasted at #8 and that it requires him to get a hit or else. he could make productive outs at #2.

[Arky Vaughan]

no doubt they do. i just think he's wasted at #8 and that it requires him to get a hit or else. he could make productive outs at #2.

In 2004, after they acquired Beltran and were stacked, it made sense to move him down. I wonder if he hadn't been injured last season whether they'd have given him some there. There was nothing to lose.

[BudGirl]

Didn't Everett bat #7 more than he did #8?

[JimR]

Didn't Everett bat #7 more than he did #8?

last year, probably. that is a worse spot for him than #8.

[Andyzipp]

Point is moo.  WadeSmith is actively looking for a 2b who can hit 2 in the order.

[JaneDoe]

Point is moo.  WadeSmith is actively looking for a 2b who can hit 2 in the order.

WadeSmith is a cow?

[Froback]

Point is moo.  WadeSmith is actively looking for a 2b who can hit 2 in the order.

Well, this probably is so, but there is always the chance they don't get a 2B who can hit 2.  If we had to stay in-house only, would Everett be worse than the other options?

I would point out, even if Everett is the best option at #2, he still might not be placed at #2 if the person who he beats out has a bigger drop off moving from #2 to say #8 than Everett would.

I think you would ideally like to have the best person for each spot in the order, in that spot, but since ideals rarely exist in baseball, you have to counterbalance each player to where they make the team the best.  Perhaps that is the case with Everett, he might be the best #2, but he might also be the best #8 and the drop off is worse for the person they actually do put in the #2 spot.  Just a thought.

[DVauthrin]

Well, this probably is so, but there is always the chance they don't get a 2B who can hit 2.  If we had to stay in-house only, would Everett be worse than the other options?

I would point out, even if Everett is the best option at #2, he still might not be placed at #2 if the person who he beats out has a bigger drop off moving from #2 to say #8 than Everett would.

I think you would ideally like to have the best person for each spot in the order, in that spot, but since ideals rarely exist in baseball, you have to counterbalance each player to where they make the team the best.  Perhaps that is the case with Everett, he might be the best #2, but he might also be the best #8 and the drop off is worse for the person they actually do put in the #2 spot.  Just a thought.

At worst I see the astros getting loretta back if they feel iguchi or castillo are out of their price range, and he would bat 2nd.   Of the in house options I can see everett at number 2 because he has speed, can bunt and move guys over, but I don't think it comes to that once all the offseason moves transpire.

[legs_of_eggs]

what's the problem with Pence hitting 2nd behind Bourn and in front of Lee/Berkman? Wigginton and Towles I assume fall somewhere behind the top 4?

[DVauthrin]

what's the problem with Pence hitting 2nd behind Bourn and in front of Lee/Berkman? Wigginton and Towles I assume fall somewhere behind the top 4?

which lineup do you like better:

bourn
pence
berkman
lee
wiggy
loretta/iguchi
towles
everett

or

bourn
loretta/iguchi/castillo
pence
berkman
lee
wiggy
towles
everett

I'd rather have wigginton 6th, rather than 5th in any lineup and thus the reason I like the 2nd lineup a lot more, not to mention it increases their options at 2b.    That is why pence shouldn't bat 2nd.

[JimR]

which lineup do you like better:

bourn
pence
berkman
lee
wiggy
loretta/iguchi
towles
everett

or

bourn
loretta/iguchi/castillo
pence
berkman
lee
wiggy
towles
everett

I'd rather have wigginton 6th, rather than 5th in any lineup and thus the reason I like the 2nd lineup a lot more, not to mention it increases their options at 2b.    That is why pence shouldn't bat 2nd.

the second lineup, and it is not even close.

[DVauthrin]

the second lineup, and it is not even close.

option 3 would be

bourn
everett
pence
berkman
lee
wigginton
towles
iguchi/loretta

but in general I support any lineup that doesn't require ty wigginton to bat 5th, and my 2b to bat 6th.

[JimR]

option 3 would be

bourn
everett
pence
berkman
lee
wigginton
towles
iguchi/loretta

but in general I support any lineup that doesn't require ty wigginton to bat 5th, and my 2b to bat 6th.

i do not like that one.

[DVauthrin]

i do not like that one.

well neither do i, but since we have been discussing everett at the 2 spot figured i'd throw it out there.   I prefer the one with 2b batting 2nd, pence 3rd and wigginton 6th myself.

[juliogotay]

well neither do i, but since we have been discussing everett at the 2 spot figured i'd throw it out there.   I prefer the one with 2b batting 2nd, pence 3rd and wigginton 6th myself.

I wonder how many times the Astros opening day lineup actually repeated last year. Garner must have used 30 different lineups.

[Frobie]

I wonder how many times the Astros opening day lineup actually repeated last year. Garner must have used 30 different lineups.

Since you asked...

[Jacksonian]

option 3 would be

bourn
everett
pence
berkman
lee
wigginton
towles
iguchi/loretta

but in general I support any lineup that doesn't require ty wigginton to bat 5th, and my 2b to bat 6th.

IMO, you're all making this more complicated than it is.  SmithWade specifically emphasized speed.  Loretta doesn't have it.  There's a reason we're hearing about these quick prototypical 2-spot hitters for 2b.  It'll be a speedy 2b whether that's someone acquired by trade, FA, or Burke.  And that person will bat 2nd.  I don't believe the Astros currently see Everett as a better option at the 2-hole than the 2nd baseman; whoever that'll be.

[DVauthrin]

IMO, you're all making this more complicated than it is.  SmithWade specifically emphasized speed.  Loretta doesn't have it.  There's a reason we're hearing about these quick prototypical 2-spot hitters for 2b.  It'll be a speedy 2b whether that's someone acquired by trade, FA, or Burke.  And that person will bat 2nd.  I don't believe the Astros currently see Everett as a better option at the 2-hole than the 2nd baseman; whoever that'll be.

1)  I don't believe everett bats 2nd either, we just had a discussion about it in this thread so I posted what such a lineup would be for discussion purposes only.   

2)  Speedy or not, Loretta is better than burke especially considering he's perfectly suited to bat 2nd.   You don't start an inferior player simply because he's fast, and they accomplished a big part of the speed issue with bourn.   I will agree with you that loretta is not their first choice of the 2nd basemen, but if they fail in signing castillo/iguchi or trading for a 2b, loretta should be retained as long as his demands are deemed reasonable by the club.   Burke should not start over loretta, speed be damned.   

[Froback]

IMO, you're all making this more complicated than it is.  SmithWade specifically emphasized speed.  Loretta doesn't have it.  There's a reason we're hearing about these quick prototypical 2-spot hitters for 2b.  It'll be a speedy 2b whether that's someone acquired by trade, FA, or Burke.  And that person will bat 2nd.  I don't believe the Astros currently see Everett as a better option at the 2-hole than the 2nd baseman; whoever that'll be.

I agree 100% with this statement.  Although I liked the quick reference more than the speedy for the 2B.  I think it would better describe what they are looking for, speedy would be a bonus.  And if Loretta is back next year, I think it almost definite as a safety-net/back-up for the 2B option they plan to go with, than to start.  Just the feeling I get at this point (no inside info on this).

[JimR]

IMO, you're all making this more complicated than it is.  SmithWade specifically emphasized speed.  Loretta doesn't have it.  There's a reason we're hearing about these quick prototypical 2-spot hitters for 2b.  It'll be a speedy 2b whether that's someone acquired by trade, FA, or Burke.  And that person will bat 2nd.  I don't believe the Astros currently see Everett as a better option at the 2-hole than the 2nd baseman; whoever that'll be.

if i'm doing it and Loretta is playing, he bats #2.

[Noe]

Other than his OBP, Everett's skills are archetypical for No. 2 -- a great bunter, handles the bat well, runs well. But topping out at .330 isn't particularly attractive, and that's not an isolated opinion. If you look at the OBPs at No. 2 across the majors the last several seasons, .330 trends toward the low side. In other words, the players teams have used at No. 2 tend to get on base more often than that. And, of course, that assumes that Everett would be able to get on base that often if he were placed in the No. 2 slot again. That's not a given, particularly considering, as Noe points out, Everett's recovery from injury. If the Astros re-sign Loretta as their starting second baseman, it'd be far better to see him at No. 2. He also handles the bat well, and while he may not bunt or run as well as Everett, he more than makes up for that with his tendency to get on base.

One thing that effected the OBP for Everett when he was a #2 was Jimy Williams insistence of his #2 putting the bat on the ball... including bunting.  Everett did as Jimah asked in that position.  The batting average went up, but the OBP was not helped with all those bunts he was asked to put down.

Still, Everett needs to "prove" he can have a good OBP while others already show they can.  The question, in my mind, is whether his injury recovery will hinder him for half a season to the full season.  At that point, I'd rather protect him at #8 and let him play great defense (or concentrate on that primarily).  The #2 spot can very well come down to AE versus Chris Burke when all is said and done.

[Arky Vaughan]

which lineup do you like better:

bourn
pence
berkman
lee
wiggy
loretta/iguchi
towles
everett

or

bourn
loretta/iguchi/castillo
pence
berkman
lee
wiggy
towles
everett

I'd rather have wigginton 6th, rather than 5th in any lineup and thus the reason I like the 2nd lineup a lot more, not to mention it increases their options at 2b.    That is why pence shouldn't bat 2nd.

This is a straw man. Batting Pence second would not necessitate batting Wigginton fifth.

[Arky Vaughan]

if i'm doing it and Loretta is playing, he bats #2.

Absolutely. He does everything you want from a No. 2 except for the speed, but it's not like he's running in quicksand, either.

[JimR]

Absolutely. He does everything you want from a No. 2 except for the speed, but it's not like he's running in quicksand, either.

being able to handle the bat is more important than speed.

[Arky Vaughan]

One thing that effected the OBP for Everett when he was a #2 was Jimy Williams insistence of his #2 putting the bat on the ball... including bunting.  Everett did as Jimah asked in that position.  The batting average went up, but the OBP was not helped with all those bunts he was asked to put down.

Sacrifice hits don't count against OBP.

Still, Everett needs to "prove" he can have a good OBP while others already show they can.  The question, in my mind, is whether his injury recovery will hinder him for half a season to the full season.  At that point, I'd rather protect him at #8 and let him play great defense (or concentrate on that primarily).  The #2 spot can very well come down to AE versus Chris Burke when all is said and done.

Oh, no, not Burke!!!

[Arky Vaughan]

being able to handle the bat is more important than speed.

Agreed. Particularly at No. 2. And getting on base as well.

If Bourn and Loretta are getting on base at a .350 clip at the top of the order, Pence, Berkman and Lee will see a boost to their RBI opportunities.

[HudsonHawk]

Sacrifice hits don't count against OBP.

They do if they are not successful.  And doesn't a player's OBP typically increase with runners on base? If so, there are that many fewer opportunities to get on base when asked to bunt.

[Jacksonian]

if i'm doing it and Loretta is playing, he bats #2.

Agreed.

But, he's not playing.  The Astros made no attempt to resign him this season and when they had exclusive rights during FA.  Everything to now says the Astros don't want Loretta as their starter at 2b.  Right now it looks like FA, trade, or Burke at 2b.  Personally, I'm hoping for Castillo.

[JimR]

Agreed.

But, he's not playing.  The Astros made no attempt to resign him this season and when they had exclusive rights during FA.  Everything to now says the Astros don't want Loretta as their starter at 2b.  Right now it looks like FA, trade, or Burke at 2b.  Personally, I'm hoping for Castillo.

ok, did not know they had passed him by.

[Noe]

Sacrifice hits don't count against OBP.

I wasn't clear, what approach he was asked to take at the #2 spot effects how well he does on OBP.  I was *NOT* trying to make a one-to-one correlations between "bunt" and "OBP", my mind don't work that way.  In essence, Jimah said "use the bat son, use that bat".  Still, Everett would have to do better at OBP.

Oh, no, not Burke!!!

It all depends on approach with Burky.  Swing for the downs Burky = no likey at #2.  Swing level, gap to gap, hit up the middle Burky, use your speed = me likey at #2.

I think Burky needs to make up his mind what sort of player he wants to be.

[Gizzmonic]

He may have already made up his
mind what type of player he is.  And it might have been the wrong decision...

[Arky Vaughan]

They do if they are not successful. And doesn't a player's OBP typically increase with runners on base? If so, there are that many fewer opportunities to get on base when asked to bunt.

In 2004, Everett came up with runners on about 40% of the time and batted a very impressive .300/.344/.429. He also laid down 22 sacrifice hits in only about two-thirds of a season worth of plate appearances. The other 60% of the time, he batted .284/.325/.392, which while not great is still quite a bit better than he's batted at the bottom of the order the last three seasons. If he could do that again, I doubt anyone would have a problem with him batting second. The big question is whether he could do that again. The point is probably moot, since the Astros don't appear inclined to bat him second. It's like arguing about whether Pence was going to play center field before the Bourn trade.

[Arky Vaughan]

I wasn't clear, what approach he was asked to take at the #2 spot effects how well he does on OBP.  I was *NOT* trying to make a one-to-one correlations between "bunt" and "OBP", my mind don't work that way.  In essence, Jimah said "use the bat son, use that bat".  Still, Everett would have to do better at OBP.

It all depends on approach with Burky.  Swing for the downs Burky = no likey at #2.  Swing level, gap to gap, hit up the middle Burky, use your speed = me likey at #2.

I think Burky needs to make up his mind what sort of player he wants to be.

In a partial season, Everett was second in the league in sacrifice hits and just two off the lead. Given Everett's weak bat, maybe Williams figured that giving up an out to move over the runner was a best-case scenario with Everett at the plate. It wouldn't be surprising if Cooper were to give the same instructions to Everett that Williams did.

[Andyzipp]

Agreed.

But, he's not playing.  The Astros made no attempt to resign him this season and when they had exclusive rights during FA.  Everything to now says the Astros don't want Loretta as their starter at 2b.  Right now it looks like FA, trade, or Burke at 2b.  Personally, I'm hoping for Castillo.

My (limited) understanding was that the Astros are/were interested in brining him back but would not guarantee him the starters job at 2nd.  He told WadeSmith that he wanted to be a starter, but if he can't find that deal anywhere, he'd like to come back.  WadeSmith indicated that they'd be amicable.  Long story short...They are each others safety schools.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

I'm not sure if I'm the first to state this here but I shall mention this name and proceed to duck and cover.  David Eckstein, at 2B, batting 2nd.... Thoughts?

[Gizzmonic]

I dunno, the Cards (and most of the rest of the league) seems to think he's not going to recover from shoulder surgery (his third).  Of course, the Eckstein of '05 and 06 would be a great No. 2 hitter, but it seems doubtful we'll ever see that guy again.

I'm not sure if I'm the first to state this here but I shall mention this name and proceed to duck and cover.  David Eckstein, at 2B, batting 2nd.... Thoughts?

[DVauthrin]

This is a straw man. Batting Pence second would not necessitate batting Wigginton fifth.

Unless they get a 2b or SS capable of batting 5th, it is not a straw man argument, it's common sense.    Iguchi/Castillo are not better suited to bat 5th than wigginton(and this is who the club is linked to).   Plus, you are committed to bourn in center, so unless you replace everett or towles with a hitter capable of batting 5th(they aren't) wigginton is by far your best of a weak set of options.   Or you upgrade at 3b on wigginton, but I was presuming that isn't in the club's plan.  And it seems lamb is out of the picture as well.

[DVauthrin]

Agreed.

But, he's not playing.  The Astros made no attempt to resign him this season and when they had exclusive rights during FA.  Everything to now says the Astros don't want Loretta as their starter at 2b.  Right now it looks like FA, trade, or Burke at 2b.  Personally, I'm hoping for Castillo.

I wasn't aware of that, but perhaps they could revisit discussions if they strike out on their speed options.  thanks for the info.

[Tralfaz]

Lamb is out of the picture? 

[Jacksonian]

I wasn't aware of that, but perhaps they could revisit discussions if they strike out on their speed options.  thanks for the info.

Andy filled in the specifics.  If the Astros had wanted him to start he'd be signed by now.  After last off-season Loretta would be a fool not to take the starter job if the Astros had offered it to him.  But, there aren't that many openings at 2b around the league.  So, there's still a good shot he'll be back though, as AZ mentioned, with no promises of a starting gig.

[Jacksonian]

Lamb is out of the picture? 

Pretty much.

[Noe]

*bump*

[DVauthrin]

So right now after today's deal, this is the current MLB setup:

C-Towles(ausmus)
1B-Berkman
2B-Burke(expect this to be iguchi or castillo fairly soon, with burke probably dealt)
SS-Everett(Ransom)
3B-Wigginton
LF-Lee(Scott-could be dealt)
CF-Bourn(Abercrombie)
RF-Pence(Scott-could be dealt)

Right now they need a 1B/3B backup and a Right handed power bat off the bench.  It looks like blum could do the former and not sure where they will go for the latter.    Also they may need a lefty power bat to replace scott until costanzo is ready. 

Rotation:

Oswalt is the only sure thing here, but odds are sampson, wandy, woody have rotation spots in 2008 at this present time.  The last spot is probably between gutierrez, patton, and backe right now, but this could change depending on trades/free agency.

Bullpen

Qualls right now is the closer, with villareal and geary in the pen as well.   Albers and Paulino are possibilities, and odds are sarfate winning a spot as well.    Affeldt and Linebrink still seem like possibilities depending on price as they need a bridge to qualls.

[Jacksonian]

So right now after today's deal, this is the current MLB setup:

C-Towles(ausmus)
1B-Berkman
2B-Burke(expect this to be iguchi or castillo fairly soon, with burke probably dealt)
SS-Everett(Ransom)
3B-Wigginton
LF-Lee(Scott-could be dealt)
CF-Bourn(Abercrombie)
RF-Pence(Scott-could be dealt)

Right now they need a 1B/3B backup and a Right handed power bat off the bench.  It looks like blum could do the former and not sure where they will go for the latter.    Also they may need a lefty power bat to replace scott until costanzo is ready. 

Rotation:

Oswalt is the only sure thing here, but odds are sampson, wandy, woody have rotation spots in 2008 at this present time.  The last spot is probably between gutierrez, patton, and backe right now, but this could change depending on trades/free agency.

Bullpen

Qualls right now is the closer, with villareal and geary in the pen as well.   Albers and Paulino are possibilities, and odds are sarfate winning a spot as well.    Affeldt and Linebrink still seem like possibilities depending on price as they need a bridge to qualls.

Ransom is a FA and may not be back.

The bullpen arms that look set for the 25-man are Geary, Qualls, McLemore, Borkowski, Sarfate, Villarreal.  Young arms Sampson, Wandy, Paulino, Patton, Gutierrez, and Albers could all have a look.

[DVauthrin]

Ransom is a FA and may not be back.

The bullpen arms that look set for the 25-man are Geary, Qualls, McLemore, Borkowski, Sarfate, Villarreal.  Young arms Sampson, Wandy, Paulino, Patton, Gutierrez, and Albers could all have a look.

it seems that randolph is not out of the mix either, and on ransom I get the impression odds are he will be back with bruntlett being part of the bourn trade.

[Noe]

it seems that randolph is not out of the mix either, and on ransom I get the impression odds are he will be back with bruntlett being part of the bourn trade.

Randolph and Ransom were taken off the 40 man roster, so they would have to return on a make good contract.  Meaning they would get a NRI for spring training and beat out the guys already on the 40 man.

[DVauthrin]

Randolph and Ransom were taken off the 40 man roster, so they would have to return on a make good contract.  Meaning they would get a NRI for spring training and beat out the guys already on the 40 man.

a bit odd that they took ransom off the 40 man based on the need created by the bruntlett trade, unless the plan is to let burke be the infield backup depending on a 2b acquisition.  Randolph I didn't know, I just remembered seeing an article about him recently and that they hadn't ruled him out.  But obviously he's got a much more uphill battle now.

[Noe]

a bit odd that they took ransom off the 40 man based on the need created by the bruntlett trade, unless the plan is to let burke be the infield backup depending on a 2b acquisition.  Randolph I didn't know, I just remembered seeing an article about him recently and that they hadn't ruled him out.  But obviously he's got a much more uphill battle now.

Yes, Burke has first option to be the replacement for Bruntlett.  That is going to be the job offered to him if they sign Iguchi or Castillo.  Matsui is closer to signing with the Cubs and now word is that if Castillo signs with Houston, the Mets are prepared to offer Eckstein a job as a second baseman.

[DVauthrin]

Yes, Burke has first option to be the replacement for Bruntlett.  That is going to be the job offered to him if they sign Iguchi or Castillo.  Matsui is closer to signing with the Cubs and now word is that if Castillo signs with Houston, the Mets are prepared to offer Eckstein a job as a second baseman.

I saw that news on matsui to the cubs earlier this week as well.   I like it because i'm not sold on him and prefer iguchi or castillo.

[Outlawscotty]

the Mets are prepared to offer Eckstein a job as a second baseman.

Please let this be so.  Hilarious.

[Jacksonian]

Randolph and Ransom were taken off the 40 man roster, so they would have to return on a make good contract.  Meaning they would get a NRI for spring training and beat out the guys already on the 40 man.

If the Astros land another lefty like Affeldt then I doubt Randolph will return, at least with any realistic shot at the 25-man to start the season.

I'm not hearing anything about Ransom.