Lidge a Phillie

[cougar]

Bruntlett and Lidge to Philly for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and minor leaguer Mike Costanzo.  Not a particularly great return IMO, and we now have an even bigger hole at the back of the bully.

[DVauthrin]

They did the deal for bourn, no questions asked.  They wanted him in july, and now luke scott is squarely on the trade block.

This explains this passage though:

New Astros general manager Ed Wade continues his quest to improve the club. He has made preliminary contact with the agents for All-Star closer Francisco Cordero, starting pitcher Jon Lieber and second basemen Luis Castillo, Tadahito Iguchi and Kaz Matsui.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/5278635.html

You can take them out of the CF FA market now, that's a given.

[Señor Stan]

Here's some perspective on Constanzo from Philly fan...

http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/18/player-profile-mike-costanzo/

[Bench]

Damn. That's a hell of a price to pay, but I love my Cougars and Bourn can be a staple in center.

[JimR]

Why is that a bad trade other than folks live to bitch? We would have given them Qualls and Scott for Bourne at the deadline. Lidge faltered at the end, and Ransom can replace Bruntlett.

We got our target CFer. We need a closer, but come on, people. Many of you were willing to draw and quarter Lidge in September.

I like what we are trying to do.

[toddthebod]

Did we just trade for Wily T?

[dirty steve]

it seems as if wade's plan is fortifying the middle with the talks about castillo and the acquisition of bourn.  i like it.  we can see what shakes out with the closer role.

[DVauthrin]

Why is that a bad trade other than folks live to bitch? We would have given them Qualls and Scott for Bourne at the deadline. Lidge faltered at the end, and Ransom can replace Bruntlett.

We got our target CFer. We need a closer, but come on, people. Many of you were willing to draw and quarter Lidge in September.

I like what we are trying to do.

I also look at it this way, luke scott is now free to be traded for pitching help.   And, by doing this deal, the astros now have 15 million dollars to spend on 2b, RP, SP as they likely would have had to spend 10 mil a yr at least on a free agent CF, bourn makes the minimum and lidge probably makes 5-6 mil in arbitration.   

[cougar]

Why is that a bad trade other than folks live to bitch? We would have given them Qualls and Scott for Bourne at the deadline. Lidge faltered at the end, and Ransom can replace Bruntlett.

We got our target CFer. We need a closer, but come on, people. Many of you were willing to draw and quarter Lidge in September.

I like what we are trying to do.

I'm not saying it's "bad" per se.  I just thought we might have been able to shop around and get better.  If we fill in the closer role with a suitable replacement, fine.

I'm not big on scouting, so I have to go strictly by what I see in the stats, so I don't see what's so big about Bourne.  I would imagine he's got defensive range so he can play center, but does he have the plate discipline to hit leadoff?  I do like the stolen bases though (18 in limited playing time).  Plus, he's only 24 (for another month and a half) and youth is a nice change of pace.

[Zac D]

This is the first time in, what, better than a decade? that the closer role has actually not been explicitly one man's job (or one man's job to lose).

[Zac D]

I'm not big on scouting, so I have to go strictly by what I see in the stats, so I don't see what's so big about Bourne.  I would imagine he's got defensive range so he can play center, but does he have the plate discipline to hit leadoff?

How much of his stats are you looking at? He has a .378 OBP in his minor-league career, and his OBP was routinely ~80 points higher than his average.

[DVauthrin]

This is the first time in, what, better than a decade? that the closer role has actually not been explicitly one man's job (or one man's job to lose).

depends on if they sign cordero or not.

[ValpoCory]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7828/career;_ylt=AvdtS3Y2GzM_OJWQax5lP7CFCLcF

19 stolen bases in 122 games. 15 starts, 127 ABs

[Bench]

Why is that a bad trade other than folks live to bitch? We would have given them Qualls and Scott for Bourne at the deadline. Lidge faltered at the end, and Ransom can replace Bruntlett.

We got our target CFer. We need a closer, but come on, people. Many of you were willing to draw and quarter Lidge in September.

I like what we are trying to do.

I don't think it's a bad trade at all. However, my friend who's a steM fan is upset at the deal. "Geary was the guy I always felt good about when he came in to face the Mets. Now we have to deal with Lidge?" was his reaction.

Bourn can be a staple at CF for a long time. Geary has good numbers for a reliever, despite the fact that whoever sponsors his baseball-reference page tagged it with "It's not always pretty, but Geoff gets the job done." Costanzo looks like a decent 3B prospect, and this team needs those. Ransom can replace Bruntlett with no problem at all. The bullpen needs assistance, especially given the current state of the starting rotation, but there's plenty of time left before the season starts.

[jbm]

Seems reasonable to me.  Imo, Wade needed to make a decision about Lidge and he did.  He traded age for youth and filled some obvious needs.  Got a center fielder and added a promising third base at the higher minor levels.

It's aggressive and makes sense.

Haven't seen much of Bourne.  How is his defense?

[Bench]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7828/career;_ylt=AvdtS3Y2GzM_OJWQax5lP7CFCLcF

19 stolen bases in 122 games. 15 starts, 127 ABs

That dude's a hell of a central gardener. He can patrol with the best of 'em.

[JimR]

There is no point in discussing anything with someone who says "I'm not big on scouting."

Scour your stats sheets and tell us what you would have done.

[Dobro]

Excellent trade for both clubs.

[toddthebod]

This is the first time in, what, better than a decade? that the closer role has actually not been explicitly one man's job (or one man's job to lose).

I would think that unless the Astros get an established closer -- cordero -- Qualls is going to close.

As for how much money the Astros now have to spend -- I don't think that they were ever going to spend $10 million per year on a centerfielder.  So this isn't money that is going to be freed up for other needs.  

All this being said, the Astros have found their leadoff man and their centerfielder for the forseeable future.  Barring injury, the Astros now have their outfield set through 2012.  

[ValpoCory]

Haven't seen much of Bourne.  How is his defense?

Don't confuse him with Jason Bourne.  It's just Bourn.

0 errors in 84 chances, but Bidge avoided errors too in CF.

[Zac D]

I would think that unless the Astros get an established closer -- cordero -- Qualls is going to close.

Just playing out the logical trickle-down effect, that is one ugly bullpen.

[cougar]

How much of his stats are you looking at? He has a .378 OBP in his minor-league career, and his OBP was routinely ~80 points higher than his average.

Like I said I'm not a stats guy, so I'm not sure how OBP and BA translate.  I know .378 can be termed "pretty good", but I'm fairly clueless as to what's a good difference between OBP and BA.  I leave that to the math geeks.  I'm more of a history geek.

To sum it up, I'll take a wait and see approach.  I judge good hitters like ol' what's-his-name judged porn: "I can't explain it, but I know it when I see it."

[DVauthrin]

Don't confuse him with Jason Bourne.  It's just Bourn.

0 errors in 84 chances, but Bidge avoided errors too in CF.

biggio doesn't have bourn's track speed either.  Think willy T type defender in CF.

[toddthebod]

CBS Sportsline rated Constanzo the Phillies #3 prospect (and their #1 position prospect) for fantasy purposes.

3  Mike Costanzo  24  3B  Double-A: .270-27-86-92-2 (.368-.490)  
Lot of Ks, but his power and a potential opening make him intriguing.  

http://uwsl.baseball.sportsline.com/news/10414737

[DVauthrin]

Just playing out the logical trickle-down effect, that is one ugly bullpen.

there's no way they go into next season with this current pen even if they upgraded the SP.

[cougar]

There is no point in discussing anything with someone who says "I'm not big on scouting."

Scour your stats sheets and tell us what you would have done.

I wasn't aware that expressing an opinion was suddenly verboten and subject to ridicule, Herr Kommandant.  I'm going to guess that there's a dictionary somewhere with your picture used to define the word "elitist".

[Cnote]

biggio doesn't have bourn's track speed either.  Think willy T type defender in CF.

I think he's going to be a nice addition, any idea about his arm???  Zero outfield assists is a bit worrisome.

[otterjb]

I like it. Bourn has a lot of upside, provides excellent defense at a crucial position and has the potential to be a good leadoff hitter that can wreck havoc on the basepaths. It could turn out to be a steal of a trade in a few years.

Also, if they can sign someone like Linebrink, the loss of Lidge would be lessened.

It's gonna be interesting to see what they do after this.

[JimR]

Yeahn boy. Zero assists. Cancel the deal.

Holy shit. What is up with you guys?

WFW, cougar.

[rifraft]

I like it. Bourn has a lot of upside, provides excellent defense at a crucial position and has the potential to be a good leadoff hitter that can wreck havoc on the basepaths. It could turn out to be a steal of a trade in a few years.

Also, if they can sign someone like Linebrink, the loss of Lidge would be lessened.

It's gonna be interesting to see what they do after this.

good deal.  save 5 million dollars, get a starting cf, and a good 3b prospect, could ask for anything more(except starting pitching...)

[Zac D]

He had 21 assists in 133 games at Reading (AA) in 2005. (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/michael-bourn.shtml)

Charlie Manuel characterizes his arm as "good" in this article: http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070403&content_id=1877235&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi

When did Jim start capitalizing anything other than proper nouns?

[DVauthrin]

I think he's going to be a nice addition, any idea about his arm???  Zero outfield assists is a bit worrisome.

assists isn't the best way to judge an arm.   the stronger/more accurate your arm, the less teams test said arm.   From all accounts it's not biggio or damon like  so it's fine.

[Cnote]

Yeahn boy. Zero assists. Cancel the deal.

Holy shit. What is up with you guys?

WFW, cougar.

I like the kid, I was refering to his comment "Think Willy T" Willy had an arm, but lets be honest pence and lee arent exactly cannons out there...hopefully Bourn gets to everyball...good trade though.

[DVauthrin]

I like the kid, I was refering to his comment "Think Willy T" Willy had an arm, but lets be honest pence and lee arent exactly cannons out there...hopefully Bourn gets to everyball...good trade though.

bourn is an a major improvement on scott's range, and that's the guy he's really replacing.

[cougar]

Yeahn boy. Zero assists. Cancel the deal.

Holy shit. What is up with you guys?

WFW, cougar.

Witty repartee Jim.  Your razor wit cuts me to the quick.  When does your next issue of "Internet Tough Guy Monthly" arrive?

Back on topic, I like Costanzo's power potential.  Had 27 last year in AA.  Hopefully Geary can provide some middle relief.  Sinker will come in handy.

[Navin R Johnson]

I watched Bourn for three years at UH, and have been following him in the minors.    The kid can flat out get after it in CF, much better instincts than Willy T and just as fast.   He also works a lot of counts, great top of the order guy.   The only think Willy has on him is arm, and MB's arm is more than adequate.

[Frobie]

I know a few folks here (who may or may not know more than me, though I'm wagering on the former) were big on Bourn earlier this year, so put me down as being cautiously optimistic.  I am sorry to see Lidge go; everything I saw and read suggested that he was a stand-up guy, even when things weren't going well. 

Here's hoping for the best for him, for Bruntlett, and for the locals as well.



[typos must die]

[Bench]

CBS Sportsline rated Constanzo the Phillies #3 prospect (and their #1 position prospect) for fantasy purposes.

Well in that case, it was a fantastic deal indeed.

[TheWizard]

Well in that case, it was a fantastic deal indeed.

If for nothing else, this trade was great because I would love to hear the colorful commentary this board's users can make with a last name like Bourne...

[Mike]

Did Bourn play a lot of CF in the minors? or college? He only paid 12 games in CF only 50-some innings. No doubt he will get some looks there and a chance to compete for that spot. He's played more LF than anything else. So, I wouldn't say the Astros are done looking at CFers. They just have another option if they don't land anther CF, and/or they trade off some of the other OF's. If Geary has a year closer to the 2006, he should really help the bullpen. Of course they need a closer now. The Astros also got a 3rd base prospect with some pop.

[DVauthrin]

Did Bourn play a lot of CF in the minors? or college? He only paid 12 games in CF only 50-some innings. No doubt he will get some looks there and a chance to compete for that spot. He's played more LF than anything else. So, I wouldn't say the Astros are done looking at CFers. They just have another option if they don't land anther CF, and/or they trade off some of the other OF's. If Geary has a year closer to the 2006, he should really help the bullpen. Of course they need a closer now. The Astros also got a 3rd base prospect with some pop.

Bourn only played LF in philly because of Aaron Rowand and the fact pat burrell is a butcher in LF.   He is a CF by trade first.     

[juliogotay]

Bourn only played LF in philly because of Aaron Rowand and the fact pat burrell is a butcher in LF.   He is a CF by trade first.     

I'm curious why the Phil's are letting this guy go with Rowand probably not coming back.

[Rebel Jew]

Yeahn boy. Zero assists. Cancel the deal.

Holy shit. What is up with you guys?

WFW, cougar.

i'm with you, jim.  what's with all the pussies around here?  when did this board become san antonio?

[JaneDoe]

Phuture Phillies articles on Costanzo from earlier this year:

http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/18/player-profile-mike-costanzo/

http://phuturephillies.com/2007/06/21/mike-costanzos-splits-tell-the-whole-story/

[BatGirl]

Phuture Phillies articles on Costanzo from earlier this year:

http://phuturephillies.com/2007/01/18/player-profile-mike-costanzo/

http://phuturephillies.com/2007/06/21/mike-costanzos-splits-tell-the-whole-story/

i don't know what it is.....
but the name.  costanzo.  it's like a jingle.
i can't get it out of my head!
co-o-o-o-o
stan
zo!

[legs_of_eggs]

I love this deal, filling needs (with speed, defense, leadoff hitter) for guys who werent gonna be here after their 6 year player control (Lidge) and someone easily replaced (bruntlett). Bourne can be cemented as the leadoff guy and centerfielder while Geary will add another sinker arm like Qualls to the pen, I imagine Wade isn't done touching up the pen but I think Qualls could get it done closing.  Makes me wish Purp hadn't dealt Wheeler yet so Wade coulda gotten more for him like this...

[JaneDoe]

i don't know what it is.....
but the name.  costanzo.  it's like a jingle.
i can't get it out of my head!
co-o-o-o-o
stan
zo!

Just wait til Milo calls him Costanzy.  Wonder what he'll do with Bourn?

[toddthebod]

Well in that case, it was a fantastic deal indeed.

Well, if I didn't say that, then I could be accused of deceiving you.  I think that he was rated so high was because there was a real chance of him getting playing time this season in Philly with the 3rd base situation being so bad there.

[At Ease]

Bruntlett and Lidge to Philly for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and minor leaguer Mike Costanzo.  Not a particularly great return IMO, and we now have an even bigger hole at the back of the bully.

If bullpen depth is our biggest problem for 2008, we'll be in much better shape for next season.

I think we got pretty good return.  Seems like a nice job by the GM(s).

I'm amazed the Astros got 5 years out of Lidge without him breaking down somehow.

[pots]

Well, this looks like a very good trade.  Fills a need at center and at the top of the lineup.  Adds a thirdbase prospect which the organization needs.  Adds a decent cheap reliever(unfortunately right handed but can't have everything).  And frees up money to go towards the new gaping hole that the free agent market can actually fill.  Wade lands a top reliever off the market and this trade is outstanding.

Feel bad for Lidge though.  Philly is not the city of brotherly love.

[legs_of_eggs]

I'm curious why the Phil's are letting this guy go with Rowand probably not coming back.

especially with Pat Burrell being the only for sure starter

[juliogotay]

This link is interesting. Phil's seemed quite content with Myers remaining in the closer role and were only looking at Bourne as a part-time OFer, probably not even in CF.  http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071105&content_id=2292609&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi

[legs_of_eggs]

This link is interesting. Phil's seemed quite content with Myers remaining in the closer role and were only looking at Bourne as a part-time OFer, probably not even in CF.  http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071105&content_id=2292609&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi

 didn't notice his splits vs. lefties 154 avr and 241on base in 30abs, yeah a sample size but he rakes on righties just kinda weird

[BatGirl]

Just wait til Milo calls him Costanzy.  Wonder what he'll do with Bourn?

he'll come up with something that will no doubt make bourn want to lose his identity.
(is it too soon for this?)

[Burzmali]

Yikes. Hope he gets on base in the upper .300s, otherwise they just traded an elite closer for Juan Pierre.

[Zac D]

especially with Pat Burrell being the only for sure starter

Any reason you don't think Victorino is?

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Yikes. Hope he gets on base in the upper .300s, otherwise they just traded an elite closer for Juan Pierre.

Depends on which Juan Pierre you get.  The 2004 vintage is quite nice.

I'm just excited that this frees up more cash with which to pursue Castillo, who has become my major man-crush this offseason.

Ponder this:

CF Bourn
2B Castillo
1B Berkman
LF Lee
RF Pence
3B Wigginton
C Towles
SS Everett

It's not a murder's row, but it's a damn solid lineup.  Plus, Castillo can lead off if Bourn needs time to get comfortable in that role.

[Mr. Happy]

Why is that a bad trade other than folks live to bitch? We would have given them Qualls and Scott for Bourne at the deadline. Lidge faltered at the end, and Ransom can replace Bruntlett.

We got our target CFer. We need a closer, but come on, people. Many of you were willing to draw and quarter Lidge in September.

I like what we are trying to do.

Coach, you're so right. Lidge needed a change of scenery. As much as I loved Bruntlett, he proved to me that he can not be an effective every day player on the offensive end. Sure, we need a closer, but as we all discussed here many times, we needed an effective closer last season.

[das]

When did Jim start capitalizing anything other than proper nouns?

He's posting from his cell phone.  It capitalizes the first letter for him after periods.  This is not some imposter...........

[jasonact]

I don't think we should worry about the BP just yet. The offseason is still very young. There's no reason to believe it will stay as-is, especially since they just traded away one of the prime components. I'd be very surprised if more BP moves, perhaps of some major significance, don't come along before February.

[ValpoCory]

Any reason you don't think Victorino is?

or Jayson Werth.

[ValpoCory]

they just traded an elite closer

Lidge wasn't one the Top 10 closers in the National League last year.

http://www.rolaidsreliefman.com/

[hostros7]

It seems as if the Astros management has in recent years been able to find ways to plug the end of the bully so here's hoping it happens again.  Wagner, Elarton (although moved as a starter), Dotel, etc all seemed to depart at around the right time.  Best of luck to Brad, but I for one am I pleased with this trade and the needs it addressed.  The off season could be very strong if we add a solid bullpen arm (such as Linebrink) and a top 3 in the rotation starter.  Not sure what we can get for Scott, or what is really available to package with him, but it will be interesting to see what transpires.

[Bench]

This link is interesting. Phil's seemed quite content with Myers remaining in the closer role and were only looking at Bourne as a part-time OFer, probably not even in CF.  http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071105&content_id=2292609&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi

According to Crasnick, Myers will move to the starting rotation and Lidge will close.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=3099748

"The other call went to Brett Myers, who initially seemed resistant to relinquishing his job as Phillies closer to return to the starting rotation. But after listening to general manager Pat Gillick and manager Charlie Manuel explain the reasoning behind the trade, Myers is apparently on board.

"I've always been real close to Brett," Manuel said. "I've always trusted him, and I've always felt like he trusted me. At first I think it kind of surprised him. But Pat and I both talked to him, and we smoothed things out pretty good. He understood where we're going and why we did this."

[Bench]

Lidge wasn't one the Top 10 closers in the National League last year.

http://www.rolaidsreliefman.com/

The Phillies think he's a "premier closer"

From the same Crasnick article linked above:

"At the end of the year, our scouts saw him throwing the ball as well as he's ever thrown it," said Phillies assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. "Based on his pedigree and his history, that's good enough for us. He's still what we would consider a premier closer."

[ValpoCory]

The Phillies think he's a "premier closer"

From the same Crasnick article linked above:

"At the end of the year, our scouts saw him throwing the ball as well as he's ever thrown it," said Phillies assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. "Based on his pedigree and his history, that's good enough for us. He's still what we would consider a premier closer."

Well of course he considers him a premier closer.

[Burzmali]

Lidge wasn't one the Top 10 closers in the National League last year.

http://www.rolaidsreliefman.com/

Not the stats I would use to determine the ten best closers, but whatever works for you. Lidge is generally considered as an elite closer by "baseball people", isn't he?

[BudGirl]

The first deal Wade's done and people are pissing and moaning.  I like the deal.  Losing Lidge hurts the bullpen, but this team/park needs a true centerfielder.  This team to me is x times better with a centerfielder.  I've always been of the mind that bullpen guys come and go a bit more easily.  And something about Bourn I liked, I really didn't see Philly trading him.

I am wondering, at the current time, if Qualls starts the season as the closer but eventually gets moved to set-up man to allow for Nieve (assuming he is healthy) closing later in the season.  There were a lot of guys getting pitching time at the end of the season.

And you have to give something up to get something.

[Guinness]

"Costanzo"

Plus he can sell latex on the side (OK, it's a bit of a stretch)

[S.P. Rodriguez]

The first deal Wade's done and people are pissing and moaning.  I like the deal.  Losing Lidge hurts the bullpen, but this team/park needs a true centerfielder.  This team to me is x times better with a centerfielder.  I've always been of the mind that bullpen guys come and go a bit more easily.  And something about Bourn I liked, I really didn't see Philly trading him.

I am wondering, at the current time, if Qualls starts the season as the closer but eventually gets moved to set-up man to allow for Nieve (assuming he is healthy) closing later in the season.  There were a lot of guys getting pitching time at the end of the season.

And you have to give something up to get something.

I wondered the same about Qualls.  Here's Wade's comment:

"Qualls has done a quality job for us over the last couple of season," Wade said. "The numbers that he's put up in the role that he's been in have been outstanding, but whether or not he ends up being the answer on the back end remains to be seen."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3099599

So, maybe yes and maybe no?  Agree with you on the availability of bullpen arms.  They have a number of hard throwing pitchers available for the job.  Pravata has linked to the stories reporting Houston's interest in Cordero, which makes more sense now. 

People are going to bitch until they see tangible results.  I'm doing my best to ignore the B&M because, frankly, it lacks any real meaning or value.  So far, Wade has stuck to his plan, at least when you consider that there is very little talent in the free agent class of pitching.   As far as this particular trade, I think Geary will be serviceable.  Costanzo has a history of pitching, so maybe that's what they have in mind.  I doubt it, but if they ranked him the #3 prospect, he has to have some talent, no?  What I find ironic is the suspicion that the people bitching about this trade are the same ones who want Willy T. back.  I could be wrong but I think Bourn will be better.  I only watched him a half dozen times or so  but I think he hits with more power, has equal speed, and is by far a better outfielder (people seem to forget that Willy frequently left himself out of position to make a throw, which probably a factor in why so many people tried to run on him to begin with).  I never saw Bourn's arm tested but I think that can be overrated unless his arm strength is deficient. 

I also like that this effectively puts to rest the notion that Burke is their future 2B/Leadoff.  I'm not suggesting they throw Bourn into the leadoff immediately.  But Bourn is definitely a superior option to Burke.

[Tralfaz]

Well this is certainly an encouraging developement.  Added speed and athletism to the outfield basepaths and lead-off role.  Opened up some room fiancially.  A quality prospect at 3B for the Express (Hooks?), Added bully option.  No more uncertainty with Lidge and his much bemoaned stuff trusting.  C. Qualls and Sarfate bump up a chair.   Gain a trade pawn in Scott. 

[jaklewein]

Hell yes!  I'm stoked about this trade.  I like the "defense up the middle" philosophy.  From that perspective this deal fits.  I hate to lose Lidge, but you have to give to get...and if we can plug a hole on the team with a player under club control for the next several years, and do so with a soon to be FAgent, I'm all for it.  The $$$ part of the deal is what I like the most.  Hopefully this will give us flexiblity to add another nice piece, either in the rotation, at the backend of the bullpen or at 2B.

By the way...I liked the idea of signing Castillo prior to this trade (leadoff ability).  I don't know about anyone else, but with Bourn on board, I'm ready to call up Loretta and sign him as our fulltime second baseman.  Bourn-Loretta combo sounds B-E-A-U-tiful in front of Berkman-Lee-Pence.

[Jacksonian]

Minors perspective:  Wade drafted both Bourn and Costanzo in Philly so it's no surprise he's sees their potential as being very high.  Bourn was taken just a few spots before the Astros took Josh Anderson in the 03 draft.  There is no doubt in my mind that if Bourn had fallen to the Astros they would have taken him over Anderson.  Long-term the Astros are expecting Bourn to be better than Anderson.  Costanzo was a hot topic coming out of college.  I wanted the Astros to take him, but he was off the board by the time the Astros picked in the second round of 05.  There is still a question of how well he'll hit long-term.  But, he can get on base via walk so it's not just a matter of strike zone management.  His OBP has routinely been better the 70 higher than his batting average.  Still, his strikeout rate is in Jimerson/Santangelo territory.  If he can improve on that just a little (if just 10 of his K's had been hits he'd have hit .290 rather than .270 last season) he can be a mainstay at 3b for the Astros.  Side note, Ryan Howard had major strike out issues in the minors too, perhaps worse than Costanzo's.

[T. J.]

The $$$ part of the deal is what I like the most.  Hopefully this will give us flexiblity to add another nice piece, either in the rotation, at the backend of the bullpen or at 2B.

JdJO thinks this deal puts them squarely in the running for Dontrelle.  WTF?  (Not even going to add the link because the rest of the article was terrible.  Of course it mentioned Pujols/game 5 about 3 times in 5 paragraphs.)

[mihoba]

I like the trade, and I'm excited about having the fastest man in MLB patrolling center field.

[Ty in Tampa]

I like the deal. Giving up Lidge is tough but even just the possibility of going through the same thing with him they have the past 2 seasons is a tough gamble, and certainly one PhilliePhan should at least expect. Bourn is value for value.

[jaklewein]

I like the trade, and I'm excited about having the fastest man in MLB patrolling center field.

Is he really as fast as Wily T?  I thought that was just someone shooting from the hip when I read that.

[Jacksonian]

Is he really as fast as Wily T?  I thought that was just someone shooting from the hip when I read that.

When you get to that level of blur the difference's aren't worth noting.

[BudGirl]

That kid will be great if he gets on base.  I can't wait to watch the potential stolen bases.  Stolen bases are so much freaking fun.

[lc_db]

That kid will be great if he gets on base.  I can't wait to watch the potential stolen bases.  Stolen bases are so much freaking fun.

It's not just stolen bases either...

It's the first to third.

It's the possible triple instead of a stand-up double.

It's the hurried infield throw on ground balls.

Speed kills...

[Andyzipp]

It's not just stolen bases either...

It's the first to third.

It's the possible triple instead of a stand-up double.

It's the hurried infield throw on ground balls.

Speed kills...

It's rushing a pitch to the plate for Pence, Berkman and Lee...

[Russ99]

Just shot in the dark speculation:

What if Troy Patton (or one of our other starting prospects) gets moved to closer? If you guys remember, both Wagner and Elarton started out as starters... Lidge too before he got hurt in the minors.

Still, I expect Wade to make a move on Cordero or Linebrink to be the Astros closer for '08

[Andyzipp]

Just shot in the dark speculation:

What if Troy Patton (or one of our other starting prospects) gets moved to closer? If you guys remember, both Wagner and Elarton started out as starters... Lidge too before he got hurt in the minors.

Still, I expect Wade to make a move on Cordero or Linebrink to be the Astros closer for '08

Isn't Wade known as a bullpen tinkerer?  His history suggests that he'll continue to mix and match pieces on that part of the roster throughout the year.

[astrox]

Not sure what we can get for Scott, or what is really available to package with him, but it will be interesting to see what transpires.

Maybe Wade is willing to package Scott and Burke??

[Noe]

Did we just trade for Wily T?

No, better. IMHO.

[Noe]

I'm not big on scouting, so I have to go strictly by what I see in the stats, so I don't see what's so big about Bourne.

Okay, but you really have to watch him play to make up your mind definitely about Bourn.  I have watched him play and he's an outstanding CF in the making.  And he plays with confidence and once he finds himself regularly in the majors, he'll be well above average as a player.

You were really willing to write this deal off because of stats?

[hillbillyken]

A nice trade for mr. wade.

its not like he traded 2002-2004 lidge with his "electric" stuff, this was 2007 lidge his stuff had turned pretty "acoustic" so to get an everyday centerfielder and a top prospect was a nice piece of work.

[Noe]

I watched Bourn for three years at UH, and have been following him in the minors.    The kid can flat out get after it in CF, much better instincts than Willy T and just as fast.   He also works a lot of counts, great top of the order guy.   The only think Willy has on him is arm, and MB's arm is more than adequate.

Same here.  I've wanted the Astros to acquire Bourn for a couple of years now.  The potential for very great things defensively is now in vogue and this guy is better than Willy T IMHO (defensively).  His offensive upside over Willy T is very apparent as well.

Just watch him play for several months folks, give yourselves a huge break from trying to over-think this one.  Let the guys on the radio do that for you.

[Noe]

I'm curious why the Phil's are letting this guy go with Rowand probably not coming back.

Rowand is coming back to the Phils unless the WhiteSox make an outlandish offer to him.  Phils are prepared to pay 10 mil a year, 5 years to Rowand and he'll take that.

[MusicMan]

Just shot in the dark speculation:

What if Troy Patton (or one of our other starting prospects) gets moved to closer? If you guys remember, both Wagner and Elarton started out as starters... Lidge too before he got hurt in the minors.

Still, I expect Wade to make a move on Cordero or Linebrink to be the Astros closer for '08

1.  If you're looking for a current starter to move to the pen, look at someone like Albers.
2.  Lidge was never a serious candidate to start.
3.  Linebrink, 2007 vintage, would be a very, very bad closer.

[JGrave]

I'm glad Bourn is an Astro.

However, good luck Brad!  He was amazing for a few years and I'll never ever forget some of the games he pitched when he was just completely untouchable.  That'll be the Lights Out Lidge I remember.  '04 was unreal.  I wish him the best.  He was one of the nicest guys ever too.

[ckutac]

Did we just trade for Wily T?

We traded for a BETTER version of Willy T.

Michael Bourn has the ability to be a Juan Pierre with a better OBP, and a top flight defensive OFer.

[MusicMan]

BP (Siliver) weighs in on the deal:

Although one should maintain a healthy dose of skepticism about what Ed Wade’s tenure will mean for the Astros, the former Philly GM has gotten the better of the current one in the just-announced Brad Lidge trade.

The problem is not really with Lidge’s performance. Although he was shuffled into and out of the Astros’ closer role by a trigger-happy Phil Garner, panicking a lot his rotisserie baseball owners in the process, he came away with a 3.15 QERA and 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings. That should qualify him as one of the 30 best relievers in baseball for 2008, and quite possibly in the upper half of that group. In other words, while Lidge has undoubtedly deteriorated some from his 2004-2005 peak, that’s still a closer-worthy performance.

But Lidge will also become a free agent 11 months from now, with this year’s salary to be determined by the arbitration process. Lidge made $5.35 million last year; since salaries tend to ramp up with each year of arbitration, he can probably expect something more like $6 million this year.

What would it cost to acquire a comparable talent — say Francisco Cordero — in the free agent market? There weren’t any elite closers available in last winter’s market, although among the pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey group of pitchers with some recent closer experience, Eric Gagne made $6 million, Octavio Dotel and Keith Foulke made $5 million, and Joe Borowski made $4.25 million. Cordero will be seeking — and will probably receive — something closer to B.J. Ryan money, which should mean about $10 million per season over anywhere from 3-5 years. So the Phillies are probably getting a $4 million savings for 2008. Lidge is also solidly in the range of Type A free agents, so the Astros would also get a couple of draft picks if and when he leaves.

Is that worth giving up two good prospects in the form of Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo? No, and it isn’t close. Costanzo is not a Grade-A prospect, but he had a very solid year in Reading, where his 27 home runs placed him second in the Eastern League. That translates to a .263 EqA in our hot-off-the-presses Davenport Translations, indicating that he could be a major league average third baseman right about now, probably along the lines of a Steve Buechele type of player, which would be very encouraging for a 24-year-old.

Bourn, meanwhile, has less upside but more locked-in value, and by all signs is poised for a 3-5 year run as a league-average center fielder. Projected by PECOTA for a .271/.346/.401 performance prior to the start of the season, he spent the entire year on the Phillies bench, essentially matching his projection with a .277/.353/.378 batting line over 119 at-bats. Although those batting numbers are superficially unimpressive, consider that the average National League center fielder posted a .273/.336/.426 batting line last year, which is highly comparable in value to Bourn’s. Bourn also accumulated 18 stolen bases in 19 attempts, a remarkable record for a player that was usually coming in cold as a pinch-runner in obvious stealing situations. Essentially, he’s the player that Juan Pierre is supposed to be.

Bourn has five more full seasons until he hits free agency, and Costanzo has six. All together, that’s 11 seasons of below-market performance that the Phillies traded away … in exchange for one season of below-market performance from Lidge.

Yes, Lidge is a good fit for the Phillies, and he’ll make them better in 2008. But the price was not right.

[Andyzipp]

Same here.  I've wanted the Astros to acquire Bourn for a couple of years now.  The potential for very great things defensively is now in vogue and this guy is better than Willy T IMHO (defensively).  His offensive upside over Willy T is very apparent as well.

Just watch him play for several months folks, give yourselves a huge break from trying to over-think this one.  Let the guys on the radio do that for you.

It's interesting that Purpura was hot after this guy, Tal tried again after Purpura was fired, and now Wade was able to pull the trigger.  Obviously the common thread is Tal, but the Astros have seen something in this guy for a while.

[Bench]

BP (Siliver) weighs in on the deal:

The fact that BP is the only publication saying the Astros made a good deal is cringe-worthy.

[Froback]

Been totally out of touch last night, so when I came in today and saw this my first reaction was, "They traded Lidge?  What did they get?"

Then I saw the actually deal, read a bit on the 3B prospect and immediately thought, "Great deal!"

This deal perfectly fits the biggest needs in position players, that being CFer, Leadoff hitter and future 3B.  I was ok with the idea of Wigginton being the 3B for 08, but viewed him as a stop-gap until something better could be found.  This Costanzo kid might just come in and be the Astros #1 position player prospect right away.  And that would be very nice considering how this was a black hole in the minor league system (3B).  So now they Astros have a potential replacement for Wigginton.  I view Costanzo as battling for the 3B job in 3B, but likely going to AAA to start the season rather than beating out Wigginton.  So big improvement there.

And then Bourn in CF, fits the other two major holes, because while Hunter wasn't terrible in CF, it was obvious that he would be better as a corner OFer.  And Bourn also fills that HUGE hole (IMO) at lead-off.  The Astros just didn't have any good candidates other than perhaps Anderson or Burke (shudder at the thought).  So this quickly helps eliminate those areas.

The loss of Lidge hurts, he was a top tier closer no matter what anyone might say.  But they do get a decent to good middle reliever to replace him.  AND they save some big bucks by not having to play him.  To me this is a big deal.

The team is still looking for starting pitching (very scarce this offseason) and is looking to improve at 2B.  I think they will also look at the closers who are FAs, which there are a few good ones to choose from.  Because of the FA options at closer are pretty good this year, I think this was the perfect time to make this move.  Now you have several good options to replace Lidge with, and if you can't land any of the good closers on the FA market, you still have Qualls to fall back on, who people have been wondering if he could be the next closer out of the Astros org.  All of this looks very good.

And while I know alot of people are seeming to be pushing for Castillo, I also look at Iguchi as being a good option.  He is also experienced in the #2 batting position.  AND if worse comes to worse and Burke is the opening day 2B.  And from all accounts he was "supposed" to be more suited for the #2 batting hole than then lead-off role.  And if you are batting in front of Berkman, Lee and Pence, chances are you are going to get better pitches to swing at.  So this also might help Burke realize the potential he "supposedly" has.  This also assumes he stops hitting flyballs and starts doing more line-drive/groundball hitting.

So all things considered this is an excellent more, and the best part is, it was done early enough to allow them to move on to the other areas more quickly.  This has often been the Astros biggest fatal flaw, waiting until the best options were gone.

I can't find anything I don't like about this deal.

[Noe]

I'm glad Bourn is an Astro.

However, good luck Brad!  He was amazing for a few years and I'll never ever forget some of the games he pitched when he was just completely untouchable.  That'll be the Lights Out Lidge I remember.  '04 was unreal.  I wish him the best.  He was one of the nicest guys ever too.

Agreed.  I loved Brad Lidge as a closer on this team, still do.  But in the world of trading in a win-win, you judge what you can reasonably replace and what you cannot.  Case in point: Last year, Tim Purpura pulled off an off-season trade that included sending off the incumbent CF in a package for a #2 starter.  It was a good deal because it filled the need on both teams.  However, Purpura did not pulled that deal without being sure of himself that Chris Burke could function as a reasonable, perhaps better replacement for Tavares.

Turned out he was wrong and that part of the deal went sour really fast.  Burke just flat out let everyone down and now faces the real possibility of being shipped out himself because he's a man without a job.  But back to this deal.  Trading away Brad Lidge means the Astros honestly feel they have the ability to either 1) sign a free agent like Dotel or Cordero or 2) go with a replacement like Qualls on the team.  What will be also good to remember is that you don't always need to make the trades now to improve your team.  You can wait until the trading deadline to make the deal you need, even for a closer if that is the missing piece to your playoff puzzle.  So if the Astros went with Qualls, pushed Albers into the pen (where I think he should be, IMHO), give Sarfate a shot, sign a reasonable left handed reliever, they can *start* the season that way and then judge whether it needs more fixing at the deadline.

Since you have that many options available to you, it's not entirely lost to me how they viewed trading away Lidge for Bourn (with Bruntlett for Geary and then having the Phils add a potential prospect third baseman!).  Bourn is going to be good for this team, a Houston native, a kid who when he plays with confidence is exciting to watch.  Not many of those kinds of kid available and thank goodness for Shane Victorinos antics in Philly, Bourn would be the starting RF for the Phils right about now.

[Noe]

The fact that BP is the only publication saying the Astros made a good deal is cringe-worthy.

The reasons that BP is giving is fringe in my mind.  I can understand a scout saying that Houston just traded away an elite closer for an unproven CF.  I can accept that, same as when Houston traded away "three minor leaguers" for the elite Randy Johnson.  Those three "minor leaguers" turned out to be:

Freddy Garcia
Carlos Guillen
Jon Halama

Read the comments by the GM at that time of the Mariners trying desperately to tell anyone who would listen that they got a really outstanding return for Randy Johnson and how no one would listen.

[Jacksonian]

Just shot in the dark speculation:

What if Troy Patton (or one of our other starting prospects) gets moved to closer? If you guys remember, both Wagner and Elarton started out as starters... Lidge too before he got hurt in the minors.

Still, I expect Wade to make a move on Cordero or Linebrink to be the Astros closer for '08

Paulino is likely headed to the bullpen long-term.  Albers could be too if he can't get control of his stuff.

Don't forget about Sarfate.  If he can continue his late season Astros and winter-ball success then he's a locked-in late innings reliever as well.

[Astroholic]

Don't forget about Sarfate. 

Thanks Timmy.

Or was that Tally?

[Froback]

Another thing to consider about losing Lidge.

You have to trade quality to get quality.  

I think nobody will argue that Lidge is quality (and if they try, they are idiots).  So he was the Astros best chip to trade without really gutting the team in some way, and in return they did get quality.  Bourn might not be Ichiro, but he will be a good lead-off man.  And when people try to compare him to the "average" CFer they need to temper that with, not all CFers have the same function in a line-up.  Beltran was asked to be the best hitter in his line-up.  Torii Hunter was asked to be a run producer, not a run scorer.  Compare Bourn's career stats to lead-off hitters and suddenly his slugging being a bit low isn't as big a deal as his good OBP.  And on top of that Bourn has excellent range in CF, which is HUGE in MMP, as we have all noted.

On top of that, the Astros good a good 3B prospect, and a decent middle reliever and only had to add in Bruntlett whos is a great untility type, but not siginificantly more.  So I have to agree with those that say the Astros got the better end of this deal, but Philly fills a big need to them in a quality closer.

[ckutac]

Bourn might not be Ichiro, but he will be a good lead-off man. 

I would say that Bourn should be viewed as being a Juan Pierre with a good OBP or a Dave Roberts type of player with a few more SB's.

[Gizzmonic]

Well, nobody cares what I think, but I'm excited about this trade.  The Astros get a true center fielder.  They are going to need a lot of pitching help to be a contender this year, but I think they just took one step towards that goal.

[Froback]

They are going to need a lot of pitching help to be a contender this year, but I think they just took one step towards that goal.

They were going to need that, even without this trade.  But they are closer to being back in contention after the trade then before, IMO.

[Noe]

Another thing to consider about losing Lidge.

You have to trade quality to get quality. 

I think nobody will argue that Lidge is quality (and if they try, they are idiots).  So he was the Astros best chip to trade without really gutting the team in some way, and in return they did get quality.  Bourn might not be Ichiro, but he will be a good lead-off man.  And when people try to compare him to the "average" CFer they need to temper that with, not all CFers have the same function in a line-up.  Beltran was asked to be the best hitter in his line-up.  Torii Hunter was asked to be a run producer, not a run scorer.  Compare Bourn's career stats to lead-off hitters and suddenly his slugging being a bit low isn't as big a deal as his good OBP.  And on top of that Bourn has excellent range in CF, which is HUGE in MMP, as we have all noted.

On top of that, the Astros good a good 3B prospect, and a decent middle reliever and only had to add in Bruntlett whos is a great untility type, but not siginificantly more.  So I have to agree with those that say the Astros got the better end of this deal, but Philly fills a big need to them in a quality closer.

The days of a GM getting the better end of the deal are long gone.  No one really gets the better end when it's a win-win.  You fill your need, they fill their need and you move on and play the games.  If the players do not perform then some will judge a deal (some say give it three years after a deal is done to say who got the better end).  But that is performance based, sort of how the Jason Jennings deal is a big "Incomplete" in terms of judgement because he got hurt.  No one really knows who that deal would've turned out.

But overall, I like this win-win deal because both teams benefit greatly.  As much as I think those prone to find the negatives for Houston and poo-poo this deal (I'm looking at your radio sports talk guy) is just plain silly, trying to ascribe some sort of magical touch to Ed Wade is equally silly.  I was as much a part of promoting the myth of "The Hun", but in reality it's not really true that a GM can be a shark nowadays over another. 

BTW - Felipe Paulino now becomes a very interesting component on this team for the spring training time.  What if this kid breaks out and becomes the new closer?  He has the stuff to be a premier closer, but when do you give him that chance?  Now?

[JimR]

This link is interesting. Phil's seemed quite content with Myers remaining in the closer role and were only looking at Bourne as a part-time OFer, probably not even in CF.  http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071105&content_id=2292609&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi

that is accurate re Bourn in Philly.

[Froback]

I agree with what you are saying Noe.  I think it is a win-win type trade.  And you really can't judge trades properly at any time, because early on you don't know how each player will perform in the future and later on you lose site of the expectations at the time of the trade.

I view the Astros as the winner simply because they addressed more "needs" in this trade than the Phillies... but then they had more significant needs so that SHOULD be expected.

[Noe]

that is accurate re Bourn in Philly.

They love Victorino and that pretty much meant Bourn was a RF.

[Noe]

I agree with what you are saying Noe.  I think it is a win-win type trade.  And you really can't judge trades properly at any time, because early on you don't know how each player will perform in the future and later on you lose site of the expectations at the time of the trade.

I view the Astros as the winner simply because they addressed more "needs" in this trade than the Phillies... but then they had more significant needs so that SHOULD be expected.

Excellent! Agreed.

[Froback]

They love Victorino and that pretty much meant Bourn was a RF.

I would love him too, if he continues to perform like he did last year when not hurt.

[JimR]

It's not just stolen bases either...

It's the first to third.

It's the possible triple instead of a stand-up double.

It's the hurried infield throw on ground balls.

Speed kills...

bingo

[Noe]

I would love him too, if he continues to perform like he did last year when not hurt.

The Flying Hawaiian leaves nothing on the bench for sure.  I'm not entirely sure for the longterm of Victorino, but right now he has earned the starting nod in the outfield for the Phills and the fans love him, so that's a plus.

[strosrays]

I saw Bourn on a cross-country aeroplane
While I howled at Brad Lidge through the driving rain
But its all right now
I'll give Wade a pass
But its all right
It's a nice little trade saving cash, cash, cash

I was raised to not trade closers, that's a drag
I was afraid that the bullpen stats would sag
But its all right now
That fear will pass
But its al right
They'll just plug in someone else who throws gas, gas, gas

I was drowned by the bullshit that I read
By the clowns in the paper, what they said
I frowned at all the nitwits they misled
I fell down and and closed my eyes while my ears bled
But its all right now
Ortiz is an ass
But its all right
They got a centerfielder and he's fast, fast, fast

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

I don't want to be an asshole, but I wonder what all the Phils fans who are currently crowing about their ream having ripped off stupid old Ed Wade will say the first time Lidge surrenders a game-deciding dinger in their bandbox park?  I feel for Lidge as a man, but if you think he's gotten ripped in the media and by fans here, he'll have a much shorter leash there; and if we've learned anything over the past two years, it's that his psyche is his Achilles' heel, not his stuff.   I have no ill will toward Lidge as a person, but this could eat him alive.  For his sake, he should've gone to a small media market where the scrutiny wouldn't have been as intense.

As I've thought some more about Bourn, if he can produce at the plate enough for a OBP somewhere north of .300,  pluss the immense defensive upgrade, that's gotta be worth a win or two in the long run, whether by being on base at the right time, or saving a run from scoring with his quickness. In the Central, 1-2 games could be the difference between the playoffs and golf.

[Arky Vaughan]

There is no point in discussing anything with someone who says "I'm not big on scouting."

Scour your stats sheets and tell us what you would have done.

The stat sheet indicates that in his big-league career, he has had 144 plate appearances leading to 31 runs scored (granted, some of that was probably pinch-running). Extrapolate that rate to 650 plate appearances, and that's 140 runs scored.

The Astros got 100 runs scored out of the leadoff spot in 777 plate appearances last season.

So without even considering Bourn's defense, he's likely to be a significant upgrade leading off.

[Arky Vaughan]

WTF?

"I'm not big on scouting, so I have to go strictly by what I see in the stats, so I don't see what's so big about Bourne."

"Like I said I'm not a stats guy, so I'm not sure how OBP and BA translate.  I know .378 can be termed "pretty good", but I'm fairly clueless as to what's a good difference between OBP and BA."

How can you go strictly by what you see in the stats if by your own admission you don't know what you're looking at?

[MusicMan]

He's not big on scouting, or stats.  He's big on his opinions.

[Arky Vaughan]

I think he's going to be a nice addition, any idea about his arm???  Zero outfield assists is a bit worrisome.

You've got to consider playing time. Bourn's only been out there a total of 340 innings. Torri Hunter has 2.4 assists per 340 innings in his career. Carl Crawford has 1.85. Andruw Jones has 1.8. I wouldn't be terribly surprised to learn that any of them has gone something close to 340 innings without an assist at some point in his career.

I have not idea what his arm is like, but I don't think you can get worried about zero outfield assists for a guy who's fielded less than a quarter-season of innings.

[JimR]

and if we've learned anything over the past two years, it's that his psyche is his Achilles' heel, not his stuff.  

oh, please--that is such bullshit.

[JackAstro]

I love this deal. That's not to say I love Bourn - I've never seen him play, and I don't pretend to have an opinion on him - but this trade sets the defense, batting order, and rest of the offseason up beautifully.

The club needed better baserunning - check.
A real honest-to-God center fielder - check.
A leadoff guy - check (I hope).

And now there's more payroll available, and they don't need their 2B to bat leadoff. Castillo and Loretta are both very good, realistic options that can bat 2nd. This gives them their #5 in Pence. They already had their catcher of the future, and his personal backup/coach. Everett is free to bat 8 and be the best shortstop in the league. Dominos are falling left and right, people... pull out the whiskey and fireworks, let's celebrate this thing.

I know losing Lidge hurts. Trades should hurt a bit. But he was going to be a free agent soon, and it doesn't seem terribly likely that the Astros would have invested "elite closer" money in the position, if we even agree that's what he was. There are numerous guys who are likely good candidates for late-inning relief, and possibly eventual closers. The club could do much much worse than Qualls, if that's what happens, so I'm not too freaked out there. Wade got a guy that he feels comfortable with as a 7th inning reliever. Wade knows more than me, so I'll take his word for it. There's at least reason for guarded optimism for the bullpen (or just a wait and see attitude, if guarded optimism isn't your thing.)

And that's not even considering the 3B prospect and years of club control that the club has to work with. Depending on what happens with 2B and the eventual performance of Bourn, we could be looking at a very long stretch where we don't need to hem and haw about the state of the right half of the IF and the entirety of the OF. That's luxury, gang. Like, fine-Corinthian-leather-grade luxury. Soak in it.

[Arky Vaughan]

Did Bourn play a lot of CF in the minors? or college? He only paid 12 games in CF only 50-some innings. No doubt he will get some looks there and a chance to compete for that spot. He's played more LF than anything else. So, I wouldn't say the Astros are done looking at CFers. They just have another option if they don't land anther CF, and/or they trade off some of the other OF's. If Geary has a year closer to the 2006, he should really help the bullpen. Of course they need a closer now. The Astros also got a 3rd base prospect with some pop.

The Phillies played Aaron Rowand about 95% of the time in center field last year. Bourn got most of the rest of that. You have to look at who else was on the team before you can conclude why someone played at a particular position.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

oh, please--that is such bullshit.

I'll grant you that Brad was also not 100% health-wise in 06 and 07, but do you have another explanation for why his performance trailed off so much during that time period?

[Arky Vaughan]

Yikes. Hope he gets on base in the upper .300s, otherwise they just traded an elite closer for Juan Pierre.

.340 in limited playing time in the majors, .377 in the minors.

[MusicMan]

I'll grant you that Brad was also not 100% health-wise in 06 and 07, but do you have another explanation for why his performance trailed off so much during that time period?

You just gave the first.
Also: mechanics, hitters adjusting, regression to the mean, and quite possibly, luck/BBGs/whatever religion yo subscribe to.

[JimR]

I'll grant you that Brad was also not 100% health-wise in 06 and 07, but do you have another explanation for why his performance trailed off so much during that time period?

left shoulder flying open, as has been discussed around here as early as two years ago. if you buy that psyche bs, my view of you as a serious fan just dropped several notches. not that you care what i think, of course.

[Arky Vaughan]

I would say that Bourn should be viewed as being a Juan Pierre with a good OBP or a Dave Roberts type of player with a few more SB's.

People seem to forget the 2003-2004 Juan Pierre seasons with the Marlins when he posted .361 and .374 OBPs, stole 65 and 45 bases and scored 100 runs each time. I'd be happy to get that from Bourn accompanied by solid defense.

[JackAstro]

People seem to forget the 2003-2004 Juan Pierre seasons with the Marlins when he posted .361 and .374 OBPs, stole 65 and 45 bases and scored 100 runs each time. I'd be happy to get that from Bourn accompanied by solid defense.

I'd be fucking ecstatic.

[Arky Vaughan]

I'll grant you that Brad was also not 100% health-wise in 06 and 07, but do you have another explanation for why his performance trailed off so much during that time period?

Isn't one of the commandments that this topic shall not again be debated on the TZ?

[VirtualBob]

left shoulder flying open, as has been discussed around here as early as two years ago. if you buy that psyche bs, my view of you as a serious fan just dropped several notches. not that you care what i think, of course.

That's cheating, Jim ... you watched him!!  You are supposed to keep your eyes closed and speculate.

[Bench]

Isn't one of the commandments that this topic shall not again be debated on the TZ?

Can't we get into the "his mechanical problems are the result of his fragile psyche" portion of the debate? That's always fun.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Isn't one of the commandments that this topic shall not again be debated on the TZ?

Duly noted.  I still think Philly is going to be a dangerous environment for a career revitalization.  Anybody know anything about the Phils' pitching coaches' ability to help their pitchers identify and correct problems?

[Noe]

I don't want to be an asshole, but I wonder what all the Phils fans who are currently crowing about their ream having ripped off stupid old Ed Wade will say the first time Lidge surrenders a game-deciding dinger in their bandbox park?  I feel for Lidge as a man, but if you think he's gotten ripped in the media and by fans here, he'll have a much shorter leash there; and if we've learned anything over the past two years, it's that his psyche is his Achilles' heel, not his stuff.   I have no ill will toward Lidge as a person, but this could eat him alive.  For his sake, he should've gone to a small media market where the scrutiny wouldn't have been as intense.

As I've thought some more about Bourn, if he can produce at the plate enough for a OBP somewhere north of .300,  pluss the immense defensive upgrade, that's gotta be worth a win or two in the long run, whether by being on base at the right time, or saving a run from scoring with his quickness. In the Central, 1-2 games could be the difference between the playoffs and golf.

I think Lidge being around Tom Gordon (if he's still in Philly) will help him tremendously.  Gordon is the sort of guy Lidge didn't have to lean on during his worse seasons here.

[JackAstro]

Focus, motherfuckers, focus. Outfield of the future WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!1!!1!!!

[Ty in Tampa]

I lurk at an Eagles/Philly sports board (I know, I love to watch Eagle fans suffer) and their reaction is as mixed as I would expect. They see moving Myers to the rotation as the biggest upgrade. They don't seem to be discounting Lidge's struggles. A few quotes:

"I was iffy on this trade then I remembered Ed Wade was the Astros new GM and now I'm all for it."

"lidge is gonna be a total bust here....he wont be a gas can in that park hell be a refinery...plus hes not exactly the most stable guy mentally...a couple pop ups into the flower bed and he will implode"

Myers the Closer >>> Lidge

It's not like this is exciting, but the team got some possible value from 3 players that no longer had any value to the Phillies.  Myers is capable of being a good starter, which is more than can be said for the gettable FA possibilities.  Etc etc.

They're not going to win the World Series with this move, but it's better than if they still had Geary, Costanzo, and Bourn.


I didn't say they were a stable bunch.

[lc_db]

...  Anybody know anything about the Phils' pitching coaches' ability to help their pitchers identify and correct problems?

What about the player's ability to accept that identification and correct that problem?

[jaklewein]

And now there's more payroll available, and they don't need their 2B to bat leadoff. Castillo and Loretta are both very good, realistic options that can bat 2nd.

Yes, and I'm hoping we go ahead and reach out to Loretta now.  He'll be cheaper and locking him in will fill one more hole and hopefully allow Wade to focus the rest of the '08 budget in the rotation/pen.  While there aren't many SP options available on the FAgent market, I still include it b/c having the money may allow us to make a trade for a higher priced player. 

I read where Wade met with the Whitesox...what might Wade have his eye on?  You think Vasquez/Garland/Contreres would interest? 

[cylima]

http://www.astrosdaily.com/files/trans/draft2000.html

(Please do not post copyright material without attribution and/or permission)

Astros 2000 draft....

Rnd  Player                          School
 1. Robert Stiehl, C                 El Camino College
 2. Chad Qualls, P                   U of Nevada-Reno
 3. Anthony Pluta, P                 Las Vegas HS, Las Vegas, NV
 4. Eric Keefner, 1B                 De la Salle Institute HS, Chicago, IL
 5. Jacob Whitesides, OF             David Hickman Sr HS, Columbia, MO
 6. Tommy Whiteman, SS               U of Oklahoma
 7. Joe Lydic, IF                    U of Pittsburgh
 8. Cory Doyne, P                    Land O'Lakes HS, FL
 9. Eric Bruntlett, IF               Stanford U
10. Nathan Nelson, 3B                U of Louisiana-Lafayette
11. Bob McCrory, P                   Columbus HS, Steens, MS
12. Ryan Hamilton, P                 U of San Diego
13. Anthony Acevedo, OF              Fresno State U
14. Anthony Angel, 2B                Loyola Marymount U
15. Todd Self, OF                    U of Louisiana-Lafayette
16. Monte Mansfield, P               Riverside CC
17. Ralph Hicks, P                   Centanary College
18. Eric Lee, RF                     U of Houston
19. Michael Bourn, OF                Nimitz HS, Humble, TX

[kevwun]

This move prevented the inevitable Pence/Lee collision.  Although those two may still find a way to pull it off. 

[Burzmali]

.340 in limited playing time in the majors, .377 in the minors.

Yeah..

I mean it could turn out to be a solid deal if he puts up .380 ish. The defense is obviously going to be alot better. I just dont know if giving up an elite closer and essentially downgrading the offense slightly was the best idea. The 3B prospect is interesting.


Still think Burke is going to break out in 08 if he gets a shot.  

[Jacksonian]

Astros 2000 draft....

You chose your first post to be material taken directly from AD.  Not exactly a great start out of the gate.

[cylima]

I think Lidge being around Tom Gordon (if he's still in Philly) will help him tremendously.  Gordon is the sort of guy Lidge didn't have to lean on during his worse seasons here.

what about the flash backs from hearing Ryan Howard hit moonshots.

[Bench]

Yeah..

The defense is obviously going to be alot better. I just dont know if giving up an elite closer and essentially downgrading the offense slightly was the best idea.

How is the trade downgrading the offense at all? Lidge couldn't hit for shit and Bruntlett didn't play. The team didn't have a leadoff hitter and now it has someone who could fill that role. Where is the offensive downgrade?

[Noe]

what about the flash backs from hearing Ryan Howard hit moonshots.

What about it?

[Jacksonian]

Yeah..

I mean it could turn out to be a solid deal if he puts up .380 ish. The defense is obviously going to be alot better. I just dont know if giving up an elite closer and essentially downgrading the offense slightly was the best idea. The 3B prospect is interesting.


Still think Burke is going to break out in 08 if he gets a shot.  

IIRC, NL leadoff hitters averaged about .350 this season.  If Bourn can do any better than that then the Astros have benefitted from that part of the trade.

[JackAstro]

what about the flash backs from hearing Ryan Howard hit moonshots.

(deep sigh, rubbing temples)

[Noe]

How is the trade downgrading the offense at all? Lidge couldn't hit for shit and Bruntlett didn't play. The team didn't have a leadoff hitter and now it has someone who could fill that role. Where is the offensive downgrade?

Four words: Luke Scott Man Love (or you can go with Chris Burke Man Love just the same)

[BatGirl]

Yeah..

I mean it could turn out to be a solid deal if he puts up .380 ish. The defense is obviously going to be alot better. I just dont know if giving up an elite closer and essentially downgrading the offense slightly was the best idea. The 3B prospect is interesting.


Still think Burke is going to break out in 08 if he gets a shot.  

just as i finished reading this, my 11-month-old turned away from me, began to crawl...farted loudly...paused, looked back over her shoulder at me briefly, turned again, and carried on.  that was way better than any comment i could ever come up with here.  and her timing!  i coudn't be more proud.

[Noe]

just as i finished reading this, my 11-month-old turned away from me, began to crawl...farted loudly...paused, looked back over her shoulder at me briefly, turned again, and carried on.  that was way better than any comment i could ever come up with here.  and her timing!  i coudn't be more proud.

Leaving behind a trail of PECOTA?

[Noe]

IIRC, NL leadoff hitters averaged about .350 this season.  If Bourn can do any better than that then the Astros have benefitted from that part of the trade.

I think Arky made an excellent point on the upgrade:

http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104298.msg166020#msg166020

[BatGirl]

Leaving behind a trail of PECOTA?

wait...
do i need to consult funk & wagner?
what's PECTOA?

[Jacksonian]

I think Arky made an excellent point on the upgrade:

http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104298.msg166020#msg166020

He does that shit sometimes.  Fucker.

[Rebel Jew]

I love this deal. That's not to say I love Bourn - I've never seen him play, and I don't pretend to have an opinion on him - but this trade sets the defense, batting order, and rest of the offseason up beautifully.

The club needed better baserunning - check.
A real honest-to-God center fielder - check.
A leadoff guy - check (I hope).

And now there's more payroll available, and they don't need their 2B to bat leadoff. Castillo and Loretta are both very good, realistic options that can bat 2nd. This gives them their #5 in Pence. They already had their catcher of the future, and his personal backup/coach. Everett is free to bat 8 and be the best shortstop in the league. Dominos are falling left and right, people... pull out the whiskey and fireworks, let's celebrate this thing.

I know losing Lidge hurts. Trades should hurt a bit. But he was going to be a free agent soon, and it doesn't seem terribly likely that the Astros would have invested "elite closer" money in the position, if we even agree that's what he was. There are numerous guys who are likely good candidates for late-inning relief, and possibly eventual closers. The club could do much much worse than Qualls, if that's what happens, so I'm not too freaked out there. Wade got a guy that he feels comfortable with as a 7th inning reliever. Wade knows more than me, so I'll take his word for it. There's at least reason for guarded optimism for the bullpen (or just a wait and see attitude, if guarded optimism isn't your thing.)

And that's not even considering the 3B prospect and years of club control that the club has to work with. Depending on what happens with 2B and the eventual performance of Bourn, we could be looking at a very long stretch where we don't need to hem and haw about the state of the right half of the IF and the entirety of the OF. That's luxury, gang. Like, fine-Corinthian-leather-grade luxury. Soak in it.

damn you and your intelligent commentary.

[das]

The stat sheet indicates that in his big-league career, he has had 144 plate appearances leading to 31 runs scored (granted, some of that was probably pinch-running). Extrapolate that rate to 650 plate appearances, and that's 140 runs scored.

The Astros got 100 runs scored out of the leadoff spot in 777 plate appearances last season.

So without even considering Bourn's defense, he's likely to be a significant upgrade leading off.

I like his hit chart too.  There's a lot of green out there in center and center left at MMPUs for him to exploit and he has the speed to turn those long singles into doubles and doubles right to triples.
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=456422&statType=1
(I chose Citizens Bank Park since that is the park where he had the most AB's).

[Bench]

Four words: Luke Scott Man Love (or you can go with Chris Burke Man Love just the same)

Ooohhh. I forgot that stuff still existed.

[Noe]

wait...
do i need to consult funk & wagner?
what's PECTOA?

Not entirely sure, but I've sometimes heard people say "you pulled that right our of your ass, didn't you?".  Sometimes it was in reference to PECOTA.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA

[BudGirl]

Still think Burke is going to break out in 08 if he gets a shot.  

Please tell me this is sarcasm.  Please.

Burke Burke Burke.  I just wish him away already. 

[Burzmali]

How is the trade downgrading the offense at all? Lidge couldn't hit for shit and Bruntlett didn't play. The team didn't have a leadoff hitter and now it has someone who could fill that role. Where is the offensive downgrade?

Scott produces better than Bourn likely will.

[Noe]

Scott produces better than Bourn likely will.

Luke Scott hits leadoff?

[Jacksonian]

Scott produces better than Bourn likely will.

Bourn will save more runs than Scott likely will.

[JimR]

http://www.astrosdaily.com/files/trans/draft2000.html

(Please do not post copyright material without attribution and/or permission)

Astros 2000 draft....

Rnd  Player                          School
 1. Robert Stiehl, C                 El Camino College
 2. Chad Qualls, P                   U of Nevada-Reno
 3. Anthony Pluta, P                 Las Vegas HS, Las Vegas, NV
 4. Eric Keefner, 1B                 De la Salle Institute HS, Chicago, IL
 5. Jacob Whitesides, OF             David Hickman Sr HS, Columbia, MO
 6. Tommy Whiteman, SS               U of Oklahoma
 7. Joe Lydic, IF                    U of Pittsburgh
 8. Cory Doyne, P                    Land O'Lakes HS, FL
 9. Eric Bruntlett, IF               Stanford U
10. Nathan Nelson, 3B                U of Louisiana-Lafayette
11. Bob McCrory, P                   Columbus HS, Steens, MS
12. Ryan Hamilton, P                 U of San Diego
13. Anthony Acevedo, OF              Fresno State U
14. Anthony Angel, 2B                Loyola Marymount U
15. Todd Self, OF                    U of Louisiana-Lafayette
16. Monte Mansfield, P               Riverside CC
17. Ralph Hicks, P                   Centanary College
18. Eric Lee, RF                     U of Houston
19. Michael Bourn, OF                Nimitz HS, Humble, TX

anyone who reads that crap website is a candidate for immediate banning.

[Burzmali]

Bourn will save more runs than Scott likely will.

Yeah, that's valid. I hope he saves enough to balance the loss of production.

[JimR]

Scott produces better than Bourn likely will.

idiotic post.

[Noe]

Yeah, that's valid. I hope he saves enough to balance the loss of production.

What "loss of production"?  Luke Scott did not hit leadoff on this team.

[Noe]

idiotic post.

It is devoid of lineup construction and myopic.

[JimR]

It is devoid of lineup construction and myopic.

total lack of understanding of putting a team together.

[MusicMan]

total lack of understanding of putting a team together.

I understand it.  You get 14 rounds, right?  And who ever draft first in the first round, drafts last in the second round?

Or is this one of them fancy "auction" leagues?

[Froback]

Yeah, that's valid. I hope he saves enough to balance the loss of production.

Look if Luke was all that, then why was the team even bothering to look at Josh Anderson at the end of last year?  Scott was not playing but Pence and Lee were still getting their normal ABs.  So putting that all together the club viewed Scott as the 3rd best of Pence, Lee and Scott... AND that they needed to see Josh Anderson play a little at the Major League level.  Now, if they were happy with Scott and planned on him being the starter for 08, why would they give 2 shits about Anderson and seeing him play, unless they were going to move Lee or Pence to make room for him?  AND if they were planning on doing that, why was Scott not playing everyday instead so they could see them playing together (Scott and Anderson)?

The reason.... Scott was NOT part of their future plans except as a back-up option if all others failed.  Scott was even losing time to Jason Lane in 07!!!!  While I like Scott well enough, he is not what everyone wants to make him out to be.  He was a decent #6 hitter, but not consistent enough to be a decent #5.  He played ok defense in RF, but definitely couldn't play CF, which is why Pence was there, and Lane before him.

Scott, like it or not is destined to be a good 4th OFer on a contending club or a decent 3rd OFer on a non-contending club.  To think he is more than that, is to admit you don't watch the games and only go by small sample sized stats.

It is AMAZING how 1 red-hot spring training can carry a guy for years in some fan's eyes!!!

[Burzmali]

What a nice circle jerk there Jim and Noe!

I understand that he bats leadoff. It's still substituting Scott for less production. If Lee was being bumped out of the lineup for Bourn, wouldn't you say that there would be a decrease of production? Or because he doesn't bad leadoff there wouldn't be a loss?

[MusicMan]

What a nice circle jerk there Jim and Noe!

I understand that he bats leadoff. It's still substituting Scott for less production. If Lee was being bumped out of the lineup for Bourn, wouldn't you say that there would be a decrease of production? Or because he doesn't bad leadoff there wouldn't be a loss?

They needed a CF.  They needed a leadoff hitter.  Scott was neither of these things.
Lee was set in LF.  They want Pence in RF.  Therefore, unless the Astros are moving to the AL, Scott had no place in the lineup.

So how is his production "lost"?

[Taras Bulba]

What a nice circle jerk there Jim and Noe!

I understand that he bats leadoff. It's still substituting Scott for less production. If Lee was being bumped out of the lineup for Bourn, wouldn't you say that there would be a decrease of production? Or because he doesn't bad leadoff there wouldn't be a loss?

They can move Luke to short.  Yeah, that's the ticket.

[Burzmali]

They needed a CF.  They needed a leadoff hitter.  Scott was neither of these things.
Lee was set in LF.  They want Pence in RF.  Therefore, unless the Astros are moving to the AL, Scott had no place in the lineup.

So how is his production "lost"?

Before the trade, the starting outfield was Lee / Pence / Scott. Barring any trades or FA acquisitions, that would have been the opening day lineup. Because the post-trade lineup replaces Scott with a less productive hitter, production is lost.

[Noe]

What a nice circle jerk there Jim and Noe!

Why, because we agree that you are looking at this devoid of lineup construction?  Then call out the Houston Astros for the same thing.

I understand that he bats leadoff.

Not judging by your comments.

It's still substituting Scott for less production.

*sigh*, Scott does not hit leadoff.

If Lee was being bumped out of the lineup for Bourn, wouldn't you say that there would be a decrease of production? Or because he doesn't bad leadoff there wouldn't be a loss?

Lee bats cleanup.  Who bats cleanup when Lee is bumped from the outfield rotation?  Don't blame it on the leadoff guy that the cleanup man gets bumped, blame it on the guy who *now* hits cleanup if... *IF*... there is a bump downward in production.  Simple question, simple answers... where you should concentrate.  But I doubt you can.

[JimR]

What a nice circle jerk there Jim and Noe!

I understand that he bats leadoff. It's still substituting Scott for less production. If Lee was being bumped out of the lineup for Bourn, wouldn't you say that there would be a decrease of production? Or because he doesn't bad leadoff there wouldn't be a loss?

you no longer are a viable option for me to read. your Berkman at #2 suggestion demonstrates how clueless you are.

you're a fantasy player for sure.

[MusicMan]

Before the trade, the starting outfield was Lee / Pence / Scott. Barring any trades or FA acquisitions, that would have been the opening day lineup. Because the post-trade lineup replaces Scott with a less productive hitter, production is lost.

In a word... bullshit.

In the imaginary world you have set up... who would have hit leadoff?

[Astroholic]

In a word... bullshit.

In the imaginary world you have set up... who would have hit leadoff?

Why Capn' Crunch of coarse.

[ckutac]

Before the trade, the starting outfield was Lee / Pence / Scott.

WRONG!!!!  Before the trade the starting OF was: Lee/Pence/Josh Anderson.  With luke Scott as out #4 OF.

Barring any trades or FA acquisitions, that would have been the opening day lineup.

Their was ZERO chance of the Houston Astros not making some sort of move because the moment that Ed Wade took over as GM was the moment that Hunter Pence's days as a CFer were finished.  Had we not signed anyone or traded for anyone, we would have had exactly ONE CFer on our roster next year, Josh Anderson.

Because the post-trade lineup replaces Scott with a less productive hitter, production is lost.

Hunter Pence replaced Luke Scott in the lineup, that is a HUGE gain in production.  Michael Bourn will battle and most likely replace Josh Anderson in the lineup, worst case scenario is we get no added offensive help as Anderson says in the lineup.  Most likely scenario is that Bourn and his upgraded offense replace Josh Anderson as our CFer, yet a SECOND offensive upgrade.

[Burzmali]

In a word... bullshit.

In the imaginary world you have set up... who would have hit leadoff?

If the Astros didn't make this trade who would have hit leadoff? If they didn't make an addition, would they have just forfeited the season for lack of a leadoff hitter?

[Noe]

If the Astros didn't make this trade who would have hit leadoff?

Josh Anderson was a consideration.  Chris Burke too.  That is CF or 2nd base.  Or they go hard for a FA CF who could bat leadoff.  Not many were available, so they went to look for a 2nd who could do the same.  Either way, they figured that Burke nor Anderson were complete answers for the leadoff spot.

If they didn't make an addition, would they have just forfeited the season for lack of a leadoff hitter?

You're just being stupid now.  Why?

[Ty in Tampa]

If the Astros didn't make this trade who would have hit leadoff? If they didn't make an addition, would they have just forfeited the season for lack of a leadoff hitter?

Why the fuck do you think they make trades? You've circled the stupid block and are back where you started.

[Noe]

In a word... bullshit.

In the imaginary world you have set up... who would have hit leadoff?

I'm fully expecting to read either Burke, Berkman or Pence.  Because as we all should know already, Chris Burke is going to have his breakout season in 08, Pence bats second and Luke Scott hits #5 and makes all the plays in CF...errr... wait, no he doesn't.  But Pence does in CF... errr... wait, no he doesn't.  Well, at least Scott in RF makes all the.... errr... wait, no, that isn't really a good defense either.

Oh hell, who the fuck *CARES* about defense any way!?!?!  Up th emiddle defense... *pshaw*.   Support your pitching... screw that! Fanta-crap baseball is about offense baby.

[Bench]

Scott produces better than Bourn likely will.

Hopefully Scott will produce a nice bullpen arm or a second baseman.

[Froback]

You're just being stupid now.  Why?

When backed into a corner with more logic then they can refute... try to distract them... I see my kids try it all the time... doesn't work for them either.

[Froback]

Hopefully Scott will produce a nice bullpen arm or a second baseman.

At least now they have reduced their needs to look for and can focus on the remaining.

It is so nice to see them act this quickly and reduce the number of "issues" to deal with.

[Noe]

Hunter Pence replaced Luke Scott in the lineup, that is a HUGE gain in production.

Eggszactly!

Michael Bourn will battle and most likely replace Josh Anderson in the lineup, worst case scenario is we get no added offensive help as Anderson says in the lineup.  Most likely scenario is that Bourn and his upgraded offense replace Josh Anderson as our CFer, yet a SECOND offensive upgrade.

Ding, ding, ding.

[BudGirl]

If the Astros didn't make this trade who would have hit leadoff? If they didn't make an addition, would they have just forfeited the season for lack of a leadoff hitter?

Who knows?  That is one of the holes that needed to be filled.  I like the position players, minus Burke if he is starting at second.  I even like Wiggy at 3rd.

The Astros need some pitching.  It will be interesting because of all the try outs they held at the end of the season this year.

[BUWebguy]

Here's an interesting take on the deal from another Phils fan:
http://www.beerleaguer.com/beerleaguer/2007/11/phillies-acquir.html

[das]

Why Capn' Crunch of coarse.

Don't you besmirch the Capn'.  Cleanup or nuthin for the king of breakfasts.

[BUWebguy]

I think he's going to be a nice addition, any idea about his arm???  Zero outfield assists is a bit worrisome.

Baseball America calls Bourn "A plus runner, thrower and center-field defender".
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/news/265162.html

It also mentions that "Some scouts believe Costanzo, a second-round pick form Coastal Carolina in 2005, is a first baseman in waiting." and that "Costanzo could be ready by midseason—if not earlier—to compete for third-base playing time."

[Noe]

Baseball America calls Bourn "A plus runner, thrower and center-field defender".
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/news/265162.html

It also mentions that "Some scouts believe Costanzo, a second-round pick form Coastal Carolina in 2005, is a first baseman in waiting." and that "Costanzo could be ready by midseason—if not earlier—to compete for third-base playing time."

Or a left handed bat off the bench (see: Lamb, Mike)

[DVauthrin]

Or a left handed bat off the bench (see: Lamb, Mike)

a quality bench, especially with the astros pitching, what a novel concept! 

In the NL, you don't have to start to have value.

[Noe]

a quality bench, especially with the astros pitching, what a novel concept! 

The Astros may of just protected themselves in case Luke Scott does not want to be the #4 outfielder and left handed bat off the bench.  They've already in essence lost Mike Lamb, build that bench back up while your fixing other things too.

A good bullpen and bench is essential to a contending team as much as anything else they could do.  Is Castanzo an answer for the bench?  I dunno, but he sure looks like a guy who is a Mike Lamb clone.

[DVauthrin]

The Astros may of just protected themselves in case Luke Scott does not want to be the #4 outfielder and left handed bat off the bench.  They've already in essence lost Mike Lamb, build that bench back up while your fixing other things too.

A good bullpen and bench is essential to a contending team as much as anything else they could do.  Is Castanzo an answer for the bench?  I dunno, but he sure looks like a guy who is a Mike Lamb clone.

I think before you pencil scott in that bench role, you have to explore what others will give you for him that you need.

[Froback]

I think before you pencil scott in that bench role, you have to explore what others will give you for him that you need.

Based on how quickly they pulled this deal off, I am pretty certain they are exploring a whole host of options, and I am pretty sure Scott is involved in a few of them.

[Jacksonian]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=203

What BA does best.  An article on prospect development and why stats can mean nothing to minor leaguers.  Costanzo spent last year learning how to use "new" hips and a "new" body.

[DVauthrin]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=203

What BA does best.  An article on prospect development and why stats can mean nothing to minor leaguers.  Costanzo spent last year learning how to use "new" hips and a "new" body.

great read, thanks.

[Noe]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=203

What BA does best.  An article on prospect development and why stats can mean nothing to minor leaguers.  Costanzo spent last year learning how to use "new" hips and a "new" body.

You know, you try to tell some folks to avoid looking at minor league stats for this very reason... but do they listen?  Well, I dunno... do they?

[Arky Vaughan]

I mean it could turn out to be a solid deal if he puts up .380 ish. The defense is obviously going to be alot better. I just dont know if giving up an elite closer and essentially downgrading the offense slightly was the best idea. The 3B prospect is interesting.

I'm not so sure it's a downgrade in offense. If he even posts a .350 OBP, that's better than a majority of major-league center fielders over the last several seasons.

Torii Hunter makes a gazillion dollars with a .324 career OBP.

[Arky Vaughan]

You know, you try to tell some folks to avoid looking at minor league stats for this very reason... but do they listen?  Well, I dunno... do they?

There is some useful information to be gained from looking at minor-league stats, it's just that they have to be taken with a bigger grain of salt than major-league stats do.

[hostros7]

"Torii Hunter makes a gazillion dollars with a .324 career OBP"

This reason is exactly why I wanted to stick a pencil in my ear while listening to talk radio earlier today.  So you say you want to spend a shit ton of money on Toriiiiiiiii?  Why didn't the astros make a "big" free agent signing already?  Because you can get comparable production and defense for cheap in a guy like Bourn and then try and spend the money where smart clubs spend their money - pitching.  I love the approach today seems to indicate the Astros will try and execute.  It may not work out this offseason because of the dearth of pitching options but get young, club controlled guys who can produce, get some innings eaters and a strong bullpen, and see what happens.  Maybe make a move at the deadline if the astros are in it.  But, let's face what 90% of the "Astros crazy" fans at MMPUS can't: we should no longer be in a win now mode, and we aren't one big bat away.  But, if we can get some good arms and a solid defense, put Berkman, Lee and Pence at the plate with runners on, and you may just contend for the title in a less than stellar division.  

[FullCount]

I was looking forward to returning here to comment on Wade's moves as your GM but I never expected anything like this! IMV, this trade is very characteristic of Wade; he dealt off a premier player and took back nothing that the other team didn't consider expendable.

Geary had a tough time keeping his job with the big club. He throws strikes but his stuff isn't overpowering and he tends to get hit. A 7th-inning guy is his upside, but last year he spent part of the time pitching the 7th in Ottawa.

I thought the fact that Bourn made the big club last year was a telling indication that the Phils no longer viewed him as an everyday player. Rather than play everyday at Ottawa, he spent most of '07 on the bench, taking over for Burrell late defensively and occasionally to pinch-run. If you look at Bourn's minor league stats you will see high OBP in A ball and then the numbers drop. There's a theory that the development people told him to be more aggressive early in the count and he became less patient as a result, taking fewer walks but not increasing his AVG enough to compensate. The other theory is that higher level pitchers realized he doesn't have enough power to do much damage so they just came after him. Either way, his OBP above A ball is disappointing to those of us who had very high hopes for him. Perhaps your hitting coach can get him back to where he was and if so you might really have something. He's tremendously fast on the bases and covering CF. His arm is average. I'd still like to see him do well.

Costanzo has gotten off to dreadful starts at every level and then picked up his hitting in the second half. Consequently, school is still out on him. A lot of scouts don't think he's an everyday player but he has his defenders who believe the second half spurts indicate he's better than his numbers show. Still, his fielding has been subpar, he hasn't shown that he can hit LHers, and his strikeout levels have been extremely high.

If either Bourn or Costanzo pan out, then Wade will have done well. Good luck on your end of the trade. From our end, the trade works best because it brings an end to the Myers-as-closer lunacy. On a team that was short starters, it made no sense to take one of your better ones to close but then the Phils have a track record of usually not developing closers internally, which also makes no sense. Personally, I would have just as soon kept Bourn and given the closers job to a young'un like Madson or Mathieson.

[Jacksonian]

There is some useful information to be gained from looking at minor-league stats, it's just that they have to be taken with a bigger grain of salt than major-league stats do.

They are only useful in the context of development.  If you don't know the details of a prospect's developement then the stats mean nothing.

[Phil_in_CS]

I think before you pencil scott in that bench role, you have to explore what others will give you for him that you need.

Will he have more value or less if we superglue Burke to him?

[JimR]

They are only useful in the context of development.  If you don't know the details of a prospect's developement then the stats mean nothing.

exactly. often, the player has been told to work on certain aspects of his game. minor league stats mean little to the club; development as a player means everything.

[JimR]

I was looking forward to returning here to comment on Wade's moves as your GM but I never expected anything like this! IMV, this trade is very characteristic of Wade; he dealt off a premier player and took back nothing that the other team didn't consider expendable.

Geary had a tough time keeping his job with the big club. He throws strikes but his stuff isn't overpowering and he tends to get hit. A 7th-inning guy is his upside, but last year he spent part of the time pitching the 7th in Ottawa.

I thought the fact that Bourn made the big club last year was a telling indication that the Phils no longer viewed him as an everyday player. Rather than play everyday at Ottawa, he spent most of '07 on the bench, taking over for Burrell late defensively and occasionally to pinch-run. If you look at Bourn's minor league stats you will see high OBP in A ball and then the numbers drop. There's a theory that the development people told him to be more aggressive early in the count and he became less patient as a result, taking fewer walks but not increasing his AVG enough to compensate. The other theory is that higher level pitchers realized he doesn't have enough power to do much damage so they just came after him. Either way, his OBP above A ball is disappointing to those of us who had very high hopes for him. Perhaps your hitting coach can get him back to where he was and if so you might really have something. He's tremendously fast on the bases and covering CF. His arm is average. I'd still like to see him do well.

Costanzo has gotten off to dreadful starts at every level and then picked up his hitting in the second half. Consequently, school is still out on him. A lot of scouts don't think he's an everyday player but he has his defenders who believe the second half spurts indicate he's better than his numbers show. Still, his fielding has been subpar, he hasn't shown that he can hit LHers, and his strikeout levels have been extremely high.

If either Bourn or Costanzo pan out, then Wade will have done well. Good luck on your end of the trade. From our end, the trade works best because it brings an end to the Myers-as-closer lunacy. On a team that was short starters, it made no sense to take one of your better ones to close but then the Phils have a track record of usually not developing closers internally, which also makes no sense. Personally, I would have just as soon kept Bourn and given the closers job to a young'un like Madson or Mathieson.

are you lost? this is an Astros board. this trade has been in the works for a year and almost happened with different players in July. we got the guy we wanted.

good luck with Lidge's health. that is not a given just yet.

personally, i do not care to know your opinion of Wade.

[MusicMan]

Will he have more value or less if we superglue Burke to him?

Might interfere with his swing.

[MusicMan]

According to JdJO, the Mets turned down Lidge for Chris Gomez.

[Matt]

Did he get a Build-A-Bear though?  That's the important question.

[BizidyDizidy]

According to JdJO, the Mets turned down Lidge for Chris Gomez.

Is he related to Carlos Gomez?

[MusicMan]

DAMMIT!

That's what I get for multitasking.

[BizidyDizidy]

DAMMIT!

That's what I get for multitasking.

Exactly - get your priorities straight.

[Rebel Jew]

I was looking forward to returning here to comment on Wade's moves as your GM but I never expected anything like this! IMV, this trade is very characteristic of Wade; he dealt off a premier player and took back nothing that the other team didn't consider expendable.

Geary had a tough time keeping his job with the big club. He throws strikes but his stuff isn't overpowering and he tends to get hit. A 7th-inning guy is his upside, but last year he spent part of the time pitching the 7th in Ottawa.

I thought the fact that Bourn made the big club last year was a telling indication that the Phils no longer viewed him as an everyday player. Rather than play everyday at Ottawa, he spent most of '07 on the bench, taking over for Burrell late defensively and occasionally to pinch-run. If you look at Bourn's minor league stats you will see high OBP in A ball and then the numbers drop. There's a theory that the development people told him to be more aggressive early in the count and he became less patient as a result, taking fewer walks but not increasing his AVG enough to compensate. The other theory is that higher level pitchers realized he doesn't have enough power to do much damage so they just came after him. Either way, his OBP above A ball is disappointing to those of us who had very high hopes for him. Perhaps your hitting coach can get him back to where he was and if so you might really have something. He's tremendously fast on the bases and covering CF. His arm is average. I'd still like to see him do well.

Costanzo has gotten off to dreadful starts at every level and then picked up his hitting in the second half. Consequently, school is still out on him. A lot of scouts don't think he's an everyday player but he has his defenders who believe the second half spurts indicate he's better than his numbers show. Still, his fielding has been subpar, he hasn't shown that he can hit LHers, and his strikeout levels have been extremely high.

If either Bourn or Costanzo pan out, then Wade will have done well. Good luck on your end of the trade. From our end, the trade works best because it brings an end to the Myers-as-closer lunacy. On a team that was short starters, it made no sense to take one of your better ones to close but then the Phils have a track record of usually not developing closers internally, which also makes no sense. Personally, I would have just as soon kept Bourn and given the closers job to a young'un like Madson or Mathieson.

i hope this idiot never posts here again.

[Burzmali]

I'm not so sure it's a downgrade in offense. If he even posts a .350 OBP, that's better than a majority of major-league center fielders over the last several seasons.

Torii Hunter makes a gazillion dollars with a .324 career OBP.

Bourn/Pence is a downgrade from Pence/Scott...

[Burzmali]

When backed into a corner with more logic then they can refute... try to distract them... I see my kids try it all the time... doesn't work for them either.

Not trying to distract..

The poster I was responding to was implying that the Astros had to trade for or sign a leadoff hitter and that an outfield of Lee / Pence / Scott was not possible.

[MikeyBoy]

Bourn/Pence is a downgrade from Pence/Scott...

Can you explain this statement? (without using the letters O, P, & S sequentially)

[Mr. Happy]

What a nice circle jerk there Jim and Noe!

I understand that he bats leadoff. It's still substituting Scott for less production. If Lee was being bumped out of the lineup for Bourn, wouldn't you say that there would be a decrease of production? Or because he doesn't bad leadoff there wouldn't be a loss?

Coach and Noe are spot on correct. The Astros are trying to build defensively up the middle. CF play is critical. Bourn can do things that Scott can't. Would you prefer Scott to Pence, because that is the real choice. I prefer Pence.

[JimR]

Bourn/Pence is a downgrade from Pence/Scott...

ok, moron, here you go again.

astrosdaily.com is calling your name.

[Burzmali]

Can you explain this statement? (without using the letters O, P, & S sequentially)

Strictly offensively, obviously it's a substantial upgrade defensively in right and a decently significant one in center.

No ops? Use rc/27 or whatever you want. Bourn will probably not produce as many runs for the team as Scott would.

[Burzmali]

Coach and Noe are spot on correct. The Astros are trying to build defensively up the middle. CF play is critical. Bourn can do things that Scott can't. Would you prefer Scott to Pence, because that is the real choice. I prefer Pence.

I think Scott vs. Pence is a false choice. You have the situation prior to the trade, which was Scott and Pence; now the situation is Bourn / Pence. That is the real choice. Understand the defensive aspects, and that's totally good and understandable. But there is still an offensive drop off.

[JackAstro]

Strictly offensively, obviously it's a substantial upgrade defensively in right and a decently significant one in center.

No ops? Use rc/27 or whatever you want. Bourn will probably not produce as many runs for the team as Scott would.

The organization didn't list rc/27 as a priority this off-season. They did mention the desire to find a CF and a leadoff hitter, they wanted to be better defensively, they wanted to add speed. All of these things were accomplished. Your gripe seems to be that the organization has the wrong offseason priorities. You could pen them a letter explaining why keeping Luke Scott in RF was the key to future success, and perhaps they'll apologize.

As has been noted previously, the outfield at the end of the season was not Lee / Pence / Scott. It was Lee / Anderson / Pence. If you want to argue Anderson vs. Bourn, go for it. Or even Anderson vs. Scott, since that was vaguely relevant at one point. You could do Bourn vs. Burke at leadoff, or Scott vs. Wigginton at #6, if you want to get really specious. But Bourn vs. Scott is a straw man, and it doesn't look like anyone's buying it.

[Noe]

I think Scott vs. Pence is a false choice. You have the situation prior to the trade, which was Scott and Pence; now the situation is Bourn / Pence. That is the real choice. Understand the defensive aspects, and that's totally good and understandable. But there is still an offensive drop off.

Two words: Josh Anderson. 

[Noe]

Your gripe seems to be that the organization has the wrong offseason priorities.

*DING, DING, DING*.  Eggszactly what he/she does *NOT* want to admit.  He/she has a greater understanding of the needs on this team than the Astros (arrogance?), so he/she is just balking at the needs, not the trade per se.  To ignore that Josh Anderson was the only other choice for leadoff/CF or a trade for Castillo and have that be your leadoff/2nd base... is to totally ignore the reality all around them and keep talking fanta-crap.

[Lurch]

Bourn/Pence is a downgrade from Pence/Scott...

Irrelevant.  Wait until the off-season is over and all trades are made, then compare the start and finish lineups if you want to bitch.  To evaluate a single off season trade as it relates to next year's total offensive or defensive productivity before putting it in context with everything else that has/will happen before opening day is foolish.

[Noe]

If Luke Scott bats fifth in a fantasy lineup and the reality is now that either Pence or Lee bat fifth with the acquisition of Bourn, then the issue should be: Pence/Lee vs Scott = downgrade or upgrade in that lineup spot?

Now if Scott bats in the sixth spot, do the same with the other candidates now in play: Wiggington/Towles vs Scott = downgrade or upgrade in the lineup spot?

The position you play in the field has zero do with your position in the lineup.  Houston had a HUGE glaring hole at leadoff so unless Scott was/is a leadoff man, he's not in competition with Bourn.  Houston defensively had a huge glaring hole in CF, so unless Scott is a CF, he's not in competition with Bourn.  If Scott is going to earn a starting spot, then beat out Hunter Pence for the starting RF's job this spring: both defensively (neither one is a CF) and offensively (neither one is a leadoff man).  May the best man win.

Good luck with that.

[Noe]

I thought the fact that Bourn made the big club last year was a telling indication that the Phils no longer viewed him as an everyday player. Rather than play everyday at Ottawa, he spent most of '07 on the bench, taking over for Burrell late defensively and occasionally to pinch-run. If you look at Bourn's minor league stats you will see high OBP in A ball and then the numbers drop. There's a theory that the development people told him to be more aggressive early in the count and he became less patient as a result, taking fewer walks but not increasing his AVG enough to compensate. The other theory is that higher level pitchers realized he doesn't have enough power to do much damage so they just came after him. Either way, his OBP above A ball is disappointing to those of us who had very high hopes for him. Perhaps your hitting coach can get him back to where he was and if so you might really have something. He's tremendously fast on the bases and covering CF. His arm is average. I'd still like to see him do well.

Two words: Chris Burke.  Seems I hear that Burkey is due a breakout season this year, all he needs is a chance at an everyday job to do so.  Same with Michael Bourn.  And expendable does not mean useless.

[Curly]

The position you play in the field has zero do with your position in the lineup. 

Uuuuum!  [hand raised]  Don't all light hitting shortstops bat 8th?

[Noe]

Uuuuum!  [hand raised]  Don't all light hitting shortstops bat 8th?

"If they are light hitting they hit in spots like 8th.  But the position they play has nothing to do with it." - Miguel Tejada

[Curly]

"If they are light hitting they hit in spots like 8th.  But the position they play has nothing to do with it." - Miguel Tejada

  Ooooooooh...I've just gotten so used to our SS batting in the 8 hole I thought it was designed by position.  LOL...couldn't resist.

[Noe]

  Ooooooooh...I've just gotten so used to our SS batting in the 8 hole I thought it was designed by position.  LOL...couldn't resist.

"Yeah, yeah, yeah... and catchers should bat ninth and pitchers bat 8th too!" - Johnny Bench

[Ty in Tampa]

"Yeah, yeah, yeah... and catchers should bat ninth and pitchers bat 8th too!" - Johnny Bench

"Hear! Hear!" - Tony LaRussa

[MikeyBoy]

No ops? Use rc/27 or whatever you want. Bourn will probably not produce as many runs for the team as Scott would.

Jeez, you broke out the big guns for this debate. Not quite as definitve as your statement in question. (Bourn/Pence is a downgrade from Pence/Scott... )

[Burzmali]

*DING, DING, DING*.  Eggszactly what he/she does *NOT* want to admit.  He/she has a greater understanding of the needs on this team than the Astros (arrogance?), so he/she is just balking at the needs, not the trade per se.  To ignore that Josh Anderson was the only other choice for leadoff/CF or a trade for Castillo and have that be your leadoff/2nd base... is to totally ignore the reality all around them and keep talking fanta-crap.

Oh my god!

I definitely don't think that I have a greater understanding of the needs of the team. I understand the goals, I understand the trade. The only thing that I'm saying is that the trade probably decreases offensive production. I definitely don't agree that Anderson was the ONLY choice for CF. He got playing time after expanding the rosters, and had a hot streak. Don't see how that translates into sitting a solid bat like Scott.

[Nate in IA]

Oh my god!

I definitely don't think that I have a greater understanding of the needs of the team. I understand the goals, I understand the trade. The only thing that I'm saying is that the trade probably decreases offensive production. I definitely don't agree that Anderson was the ONLY choice for CF. He got playing time after expanding the rosters, and had a hot streak. Don't see how that translates into sitting a solid bat like Scott.

define "offensive production".

[Noe]

Oh my god!

I definitely don't think that I have a greater understanding of the needs of the team.

Then keep up, m'kay.  The Astros are executing a plan here and you may be missing it.

I understand the goals, I understand the trade.

Not if you keep insisting that Scott vs Bourn is on the table.  Scott is not a CF nor a leadoff.

The only thing that I'm saying is that the trade probably decreases offensive production.

You said this: "Bourn/Pence is a downgrade from Pence/Scott...

I definitely don't agree that Anderson was the ONLY choice for CF. He got playing time after expanding the rosters, and had a hot streak. Don't see how that translates into sitting a solid bat like Scott.

Because Hunter Pence is not a CF, he's a RF (actually, he's a LF at best, but we've discussed this ad nasueum already as well).  Anyone with any attention span that can look up from a stat book for more than two minutes and watch Hunter play could see this.  If Hunter Pence is an option for CF, then so is Lance Berkman (and neither one is).  Shades of the days of "Bagwell should be moved to third" or "Biggio should be moved back to catcher!".  Reality man, reality!  This is Minute Maid Park we're talking about here too, so any team playing here for a majority of it's time has to have a good to great CF in the mix. 

Look, it's really easy though: If Luke Scott is to play everyday, he has to beat out Carlos Lee or Hunter Pence for a corner outfield position, those are the two men that are in direct competition with him for a defensive and offensive position on the team.  Both are corner men like Scott, both are middle of the lineup hitters like Scott (with Pence the fastest of the bunch regardless, so he can hit #2 just as easily too).

The supposed downgrade comes from where Scott will hit in the lineup once he either beats out those men or not.  If he doesn't beat out either Lee or Pence, then whoever is hitting in his spot in the lineup better be a better option or else the Astros are making a huge mistake.

I happen to think Pence and Lee are better offensive producers than Scott.  Heck, I can even forgive Lee for his really shaky defense in LF because of it.  Do you like Scott more than Pence and Lee? 

What is evident is that (following the logic of Cyril here) lineup construction as most baseball teams employs mean zero to you.  You believe in a different mindset of lineup construction so you cherry pick just a whole bunch of guys who fit a certain OPS mold and go from there.  Throw out three guys who are outfielders and place them out there because heck, it doesn't matter what CF or LF or RF means... OPS baby, that's the best TLA (Three Letter Acronym).  The regard for lineup construction based on a really relaxed view of what is an outfielder that you have leads you to believe in unconventional views as to what the real *needs* are, but it's all fantasy man... fun with numbers type of stuff and not based on any reality whatsoever.  Heck, CF means nothing.  Three guys say they're outfielders... their OPS say so, so dangit, put 'em out there!

And then you expect us living in the real world to follow along as if it makes sense to us too.

[Zac D]

I'm actually genuinely shocked that the consensus here is that, barring roster moves, Josh Anderson would have absolutely 100% no-question been the opening day starter at CF. My read was that he'd have had an outside shot at the job with a fabulous spring.

[Zac D]

given the closers job to a young'un like Madson...

This is the line that offed your credibility. Madson closing would be a disaster of Hindenburgian proportions.

[MusicMan]

I'm actually genuinely shocked that the consensus here is that, barring roster moves, Josh Anderson would have absolutely 100% no-question been the opening day starter at CF. My read was that he'd have had an outside shot at the job with a fabulous spring.

IF... and this is a big IF... the team had made NO moves, then Anderson was the logical candidate.

Hence, why CF was addressed as the #1 need.

[Burzmali]

Then keep up, m'kay.  The Astros are executing a plan here and you may be missing it.

Not if you keep insisting that Scott vs Bourn is on the table.  Scott is not a CF nor a leadoff.

You said this: "Bourn/Pence is a downgrade from Pence/Scott...

Because Hunter Pence is not a CF, he's a RF (actually, he's a LF at best, but we've discussed this ad nasueum already as well).  Anyone with any attention span that can look up from a stat book for more than two minutes and watch Hunter play could see this.  If Hunter Pence is an option for CF, then so is Lance Berkman (and neither one is).  Shades of the days of "Bagwell should be moved to third" or "Biggio should be moved back to catcher!".  Reality man, reality!  This is Minute Maid Park we're talking about here too, so any team playing here for a majority of it's time has to have a good to great CF in the mix. 

Look, it's really easy though: If Luke Scott is to play everyday, he has to beat out Carlos Lee or Hunter Pence for a corner outfield position, those are the two men that are in direct competition with him for a defensive and offensive position on the team.  Both are corner men like Scott, both are middle of the lineup hitters like Scott (with Pence the fastest of the bunch regardless, so he can hit #2 just as easily too).

The supposed downgrade comes from where Scott will hit in the lineup once he either beats out those men or not.  If he doesn't beat out either Lee or Pence, then whoever is hitting in his spot in the lineup better be a better option or else the Astros are making a huge mistake.

I happen to think Pence and Lee are better offensive producers than Scott.  Heck, I can even forgive Lee for his really shaky defense in LF because of it.  Do you like Scott more than Pence and Lee? 

What is evident is that (following the logic of Cyril here) lineup construction as most baseball teams employs mean zero to you.  You believe in a different mindset of lineup construction so you cherry pick just a whole bunch of guys who fit a certain OPS mold and go from there.  Throw out three guys who are outfielders and place them out there because heck, it doesn't matter what CF or LF or RF means... OPS baby, that's the best TLA (Three Letter Acronym).  The regard for lineup construction based on a really relaxed view of what is an outfielder that you have leads you to believe in unconventional views as to what the real *needs* are, but it's all fantasy man... fun with numbers type of stuff and not based on any reality whatsoever.  Heck, CF means nothing.  Three guys say they're outfielders... their OPS say so, so dangit, put 'em out there!

And then you expect us living in the real world to follow along as if it makes sense to us too.

Except Pence played a ton of CF last season. And I get what you're saying about lineup construction, but speaking of reality, the Astros fielded a Lee / Pence / Scott outfield for a significant amount of time last season, so it's not really as fringe of an idea as you are suggesting.

I guess our disagreement boils down to the fact that I think Lee / Pence / Scott was the default 08 outfield, and you think it was Lee / Anderson / Pence.

[Noe]

IF... and this is a big IF... the team had made NO moves, then Anderson was the logical candidate.

Hence, why CF was addressed as the #1 need.

And why they contacted Rowand and Torii Hunter.  People should pay attention: Josh Anderson was the only CF option so *THAT* is why they went shopping.

[Burzmali]

And why they contacted Rowand and Torii Hunter.  People should pay attention: Josh Anderson was the only CF option so *THAT* is why they went shopping.

So a guy with 67 major league at bats was 100% no matter what THE ONLY OPTION at CF barring a deal??

[Noe]

Except Pence played a ton of CF last season.

He played almost his entire minor league time as a corner outfielder.  He was made a full time CF this season!  And Lance Berkman also played CF for a season.  How did that work out?  Oh wait, lets talk about a Lee/Berkman/Pence outfield... okay?  Let me see if I can use your logic:  Lee/Pence/Scott is a downgrade from Lee/Berkman/Pence outfield.

Does that look right to you?

And I get what you're saying about lineup construction, but speaking of reality, the Astros fielded a Lee / Pence / Scott outfield for a significant amount of time last season, so it's not really as fringe of an idea as you are suggesting.

And they fielded a lineup once that featured Craig Biggio in CF and also Lance Berkman in CF.  Both were moved, just like Hunter is being moved to where he *should* be playing.  Like I said, anyone with dos ojos (two eyes) could see how efficient Pence was going to be as a CF for the Houston Astros.

So they went out and shopped around for a CF because of it.  Really, pay attention will 'ya!

I guess our disagreement boils down to the fact that I think Lee / Pence / Scott was the default 08 outfield, and you think it was Lee / Anderson / Pence.

Lee/Pence/Scott was not the default, else they would not have contacted Rowand and Hunter and eventually traded for Bourn.  Damn, this is getting to be annoying because now I firmly believe your purposely being ignorant.

[Noe]

So a guy with 67 major league at bats was 100% no matter what THE ONLY OPTION at CF barring a deal??

No, because he was the only option, a deal had to be made.  Keep up with what is happening around you, not what you are thinking about in fantasy land.

[Zac D]

People should pay attention: Josh Anderson was the only CF option so *THAT* is why they went shopping.

Do you have concrete knowledge to this effect? If not, the following strikes me as just as good a reason for CF shopping:

"Pence is the likely CF starter as of right now, but he's not a great CF and we'd prefer to have him in right; Josh Anderson is the only other option we have at the moment, and we'd prefer not to start him at all; so let's go get a good CF."

[Burzmali]

"Pence is the likely CF starter as of right now, but he's not a great CF and we'd prefer to have him in right; Josh Anderson is the only other option we have at the moment, and we'd prefer not to start him at all; so let's go get a good CF."

Sounds more plausible than "Pence can definitely not play CF no matter what, so Josh Anderson will definitely play CF unless we can trade for or sign a CF"

As for comparing to Pence's defense in CF to Berkman or Biggio... ridiculous. He might not have been good out there, but he was far from terrible and closer to average. My buddy worked for the Astros and he said that was the feeling.

[Noe]

Do you have concrete knowledge to this effect?

Yes.  And you should pay attention to what you're seeing happening before you own eyes... it's proving out what they (the Astros) thought of Pence as a CF.

If not, the following strikes me as just as good a reason for CF shopping:

"Pence is the likely CF starter as of right now, but he's not a great CF and we'd prefer to have him in right; Josh Anderson is the only other option we have at the moment, and we'd prefer not to start him at all; so let's go get a good CF."

Except they went out and did what?  Contacted Rowand and Hunter and then traded for Bourn... so the actions are in line with what?

Anderson was the only viable CF on this team.  Pence is not a CF, we've discussed this ad nauseum in here and my guess we're now headed to the same discussion we've had since the first day Hunter turned the wrong way on a lazy fly ball to his left in center field.

[Noe]

Sounds more plausible than "Pence can definitely not play CF no matter what, so Josh Anderson will definitely play CF unless we can trade for or sign a CF"

As for comparing to Pence's defense in CF to Berkman or Biggio... ridiculous. He might not have been good out there, but he was far from terrible and closer to average. 

Berkman was not a terrible CF.  Neither is Pence.  But neither is a CF and like I said, you can't settle for "average" in terms of a Minute Maid CF, it has to be good to great.  Josh Anderson was the only legit CF on this team.  But really, tell me, is LEE/BERKMAN/PENCE a downgrade from LEE/PENCE/SCOTT?  If not and the reverse is true, why didn't the Astros just move Berkman to CF and have an outstanding offensive producing outfield?  (You can find a good hitting 1st baseman or even put Lee at first and move Scott to LF!!!!  This fantasy stuff is fun!)

It's your own logic, so don't back away from it.

My buddy worked for the Astros and he said that was the feeling.

Meaning he doesn't any more?

[Zac D]

Yes.  And you should pay attention to what you're seeing happening before you own eyes... it's proving out what they (the Astros) thought of Pence as a CF.

Except they went out and did what?  Contacted Rowand and Hunter and then traded for Bourn... so the actions are in line with what?

Are in line with not wanting the starter in center field to be Hunter Pence or Josh Anderson. That's easy enough to see.

I think you're reading more into the Astros' actions than the available information tells us. We know they wanted a player from outside the organization to start in center field  - Bourn. So we know that, as far as being the starting center fielder is concerned, Bourn > Anderson and Bourn > Pence. We can't tell from that that Anderson > Pence. Can we?

[Burzmali]

Except they went out and did what?  Contacted Rowand and Hunter and then traded for Bourn... so the actions are in line with what?

Actions in line with wanting to improve center field defense I guess...  Basically I agree that they wanted to explore options for changing the CF from Pence, but I don't think that the logic extends to if they weren't able to make a change, the job was Anderson's.

[Noe]

Are in line with not wanting the starter in center field to be Hunter Pence or Josh Anderson. That's easy enough to see.

One was not a legit CF, the other an inexperience one.

I think you're reading more into the Astros' actions than the available information tells us. We know they wanted a player from outside the organization to start in center field  - Bourn. So we know that, as far as being the starting center fielder is concerned, Bourn > Anderson and Bourn > Pence. We can't tell from that that Anderson > Pence. Can we?

I have no idea what you're asking me.

[Noe]

Actions in line with wanting to improve center field defense I guess...  Basically I agree that they wanted to explore options for changing the CF from Pence, but I don't think that the logic extends to if they weren't able to make a change, the job was Anderson's.

He was their only option so they could move Pence.  So they did exactly what they set out to do and you've been wasting time here downgrading the action.  But really, now I want to know:

LEE/BERKMAN/PENCE

better than

LEE/PENCE/SCOTT

right?

[Burzmali]

Berkman was not a terrible CF.  Neither is Pence.  But neither is a CF and like I said, you can't settle for "average" in terms of a Minute Maid CF, it has to be good to great.  Josh Anderson was the only legit CF on this team.  But really, tell me, is LEE/BERKMAN/PENCE a downgrade from LEE/PENCE/SCOTT?  If not and the reverse is true, why didn't the Astros just move Berkman to CF and have an outstanding offensive producing outfield?

It's your own logic, so don't back away from it.

Meaning he doesn't any more?

I mean... he was terrible man, lol I know I can't convince you of that with numbers but what I've read shows Berkman as terrible and Pence as hovering around average.

The problem with the hypothetical about lee/berkman/pence is that it isn't analogous to the situation with Bourn. With adding Bourn and sitting Scott, you are taking Scott out totally and substituting him with Bourn who wasn't already in the lineup. In your hypo, Berkman's production is already in at first base, and your taking Scott out and moving Berkman who was already in, to CF. So from a strictly offensive analysis, whether or not the move was a downgrade or upgrade would really be a comparison of Berkman's replacement at first base and Scott.

Yeah, he doesn't any more.

[Burzmali]

One was not a legit CF, the other an inexperience one.

I have no idea what you're asking me.

Okay basically it's like this:

A = Pence
B = Anderson
C = Bourn

We agree that the Astros believed that Bourn is a better option in CF than Pence, so C > A.
We agree that the Astros believed that Bourn is a better option in CF than Anderson, so C > B.

But we don't know the relation between A and B, just from C > A and C > B.

[chuck]

This is an exciting trade. I am very sorry to see the Chin leave our guys. I will never forget his firing the ball to AE on that double play to end it in game 4 (4?) of the NLCS and a few of his unlikely, clutch home runs besides. I hope he sticks with the big league team up there and that he makes an impact for them, especially when they play the Mets.

When we were watching the Lidge-Dotel-Wagner trio in the early years of this decade we were watching a closing trio for the ages.

I suspect that with AE at SS and with Bourn in CF the Astros' starting pitching is about to get a lot better.

[Zac D]

I have no idea what you're asking me.

I don't think it's all that complicated, but OK.

Anyway, if you've been told for a fact that Anderson was in line to be the starter in center field until Bourn was acquired, then that's that. I have no problem with it. You do seem, however, to be scoffing at the idea that one could logically believe that Pence was the de facto starter in CF until Bourn was acquired. That attitude is what I don't get.

[Noe]

I mean... he was terrible man, lol I know I can't convince you of that with numbers but what I've read shows Berkman as terrible and Pence as hovering around average.

You have defensive stat numbers that show Berkman was "terrible"?!?!  Get out of town!  Please share... (this should be fun).  I actually believe, watching him out there that Berkman was okay, average if you will... but not a legit, honest to goodness every day CF.  Sort of like Pence.

The problem with the hypothetical about lee/berkman/pence is that it isn't analogous to the situation with Bourn.

Well, the honest true is that many wild ideas are often thrown out here (re: Bagwell to third, Biggio to catcher) so the idea of LEE/PENCE/SCOTT reminds me of whether it really *is* a bad idea to stick BERKMAN in CF.   I mean, we're saying it's okay to have an average CF in the outfield.  So perhaps not CF, would you accept RF?  I mean, using your logic again, Berkman did *play* RF a good amount of time in 2007, just like PENCE played CF a good amount of time in 2007 in CF.  If so, let's go ahead and ask: Why not LEE/PENCE/BERKMAN (like it hasn't been wondered about out loud already in here): downgrade or better than LEE/PENCE/SCOTT?

With adding Bourn and sitting Scott, you are taking Scott out totally and substituting him with Bourn who wasn't already in the lineup. In your hypo, Berkman's production is already in at first base, and your taking Scott out and moving Berkman who was already in, to CF. So from a strictly offensive analysis, whether or not the move was a downgrade or upgrade would really be a comparison of Berkman's replacement at first base and Scott.

Oh but you haven't heard who I want for first base, have you?  I want LEE/PENCE/BERKMAN in the outfield... is that better than LEE/PENCE/SCOTT?  See, now I'm saying the exact same thing you've been saying after this trade has been consummated.  I now think the Astros would've been better served to go trade for a slugging first baseman and move Berkman permanently to the outfield.  Because LEE/PENCE/BERKMAN is an upgrade to LEE/PENCE/SCOTT.

Right?  I mean the Astros did it in 2007, using Lamb at first instead of Scott in RF, so it's logical, right?

Yeah, he doesn't any more.

Too bad, sorry to hear that.  Drayton hear some boos surrounding his cubicle one day?

[Noe]

I don't think it's all that complicated, but OK.

Anyway, if you've been told for a fact that Anderson was in line to be the starter in center field until Bourn was acquired, then that's that. I have no problem with it. You do seem, however, to be scoffing at the idea that one could logically believe that Pence was the de facto starter in CF until Bourn was acquired. That attitude is what I don't get.

I was told he (Anderson) was the best option for CF and thus they went shopping.  Not that he's a bad option, he's an inexperienced option.  Moreso than Bourn.

[Noe]

I suspect that with AE at SS and with Bourn in CF the Astros' starting pitching is about to get a lot better.

Eggszactly!

[Noe]

Okay basically it's like this:

A = Pence
B = Anderson
C = Bourn

We agree that the Astros believed that Bourn is a better option in CF than Pence, so C > A.
We agree that the Astros believed that Bourn is a better option in CF than Anderson, so C > B.

But we don't know the relation between A and B, just from C > A and C > B.

Okay, I just feel more stupid than before.  What the hell?

[Burzmali]

You have defensive stat numbers that show Berkman was "terrible"?!?!  Get out of town!  Please share... (this should be fun).

Well, the honest true is that many wild ideas are often throw out here (re: Bagwell to third, Biggio to catcher) so the idea of LEE/PENCE/SCOTT reminds me of whether is really *is* a bad idea to stick BERKMAN in CF.  So perhaps not CF, would you accept RF?  If so, let's go ahead and ask: Why not LEE/PENCE/BERKMAN (like it hasn't been wondered about out loud already in here): downgrade or better than LEE/PENCE/SCOTT?

Oh but you haven't heard who I want for first base, have you?  I want LEE/PENCE/BERKMAN in the outfield... is that better than LEE/PENCE/SCOTT?

Too bad, sorry to hear that.  Drayton hear some boos surrounding his cubicle one day?

Nah wasn't fired, it was a job with a pre-determined end date. And that's all I'll say about that.   I don't know protocol about talking with friends about stuff.

Yeah, offensively it would be a better outfield no doubt. Actually Berkman was average in RF last season (not that much worse than Scott) , I was wondering if the stros would make a run at Dunn for 1b and play lance in right.

2002: -11 fraa, 20 out of 22 qualifying CFers in zone rating, dead last in range factor. Hunter last season would have been (if he qualified) 8 of 18 in range factor, 9 of 18 in zone rating, 5 fraa.

Definitely would like to know the fielding bible +/- stats for Hunter too, my guess would put him dead average.

[Noe]

Nah wasn't fired, it was a job with a pre-determined end date. And that's all I'll say about that.  I don't know protocol about talking with friends about stuff.

Yeah, offensively it would be a better outfield no doubt. Actually Berkman was average in RF last season (not that much worse than Scott) , I was wondering if the stros would make a run at Dunn for 1b and play lance in right.

See, now you're talking... I'm not so out in left field (pun intended) afterall, huh?  The heck with Luke Scott and Michael Bourn, neither one is all that any more (yes, even Luke Scott), the Astros could've done much better had they listened to me!  I ROOL!

2002: -11 fraa, 20 out of 22 qualifying CFers in zone rating, dead last in range factor. Hunter last season would have been (if he qualified) 8 of 18 in range factor, 9 of 18 in zone rating, 5 fraa.

Zone ratings and range factors?  I'm disappointed.

Definitely would like to know the fielding bible +/- stats for Hunter too, my guess would put him dead average.

If average for a CF is getting horrible reads on a hit ball and running horribly to try and catch a ball in the gaps, then he is average.  So was Roger Cedeno.  But something tells me that average means something else to you.

But the heck with that, I want Adam Dunn at first, LEE/PENCE/BERKMAN in the outfield!!!!!!

1. Pence
2. Berkman
3. Dunn
4. Lee
5-9... who cares!?!?

Why oh why didn't they trade Lidge to Cincy for Dunn and do this instead?  Damn!  Oh yeah, I forgot all about that "team speed" and "defense to help the pitcher" and "leadoff" stuff the Astros have been talking about all off-season.  Man, I guess they would never do what I suggested no matter how much better my plan was... sans the team speed, lineup construction, defense and team building thingy stuff-a-macallit I'm not really paying attention to.

Oh well, thanks for the stroll down fantasy lane.

[Burzmali]

See, now you're talking... I'm not so out in left field (pun intended) afterall, huh?  The heck with Luke Scott and Michael Bourn, neither one is all that any more (yes, even Luke Scott), the Astros could've done much better had they listened to me!  I ROOL!

Zone ratings and range factors?  I'm disappointed.

If average for a CF is getting horrible reads on a hit ball and running horribly to try and catch a ball in the gaps, then he is average.  So was Roger Cedeno.  But something tells me that average means something else to you.

But the heck with that, I want Adam Dunn at first, LEE/PENCE/BERKMAN in the outfield!!!!!!

1. Pence
2. Berkman
3. Dunn
4. Lee
5-9... who cares!?!?

Why oh why didn't they trade Lidge to Cincy for Dunn and do this instead?  Damn!  Oh yeah, I forgot all about that "team speed" and "defense to help the pitcher" and "leadoff" stuff the Astros have been talking about all off-season.  Man, I guess they would never do what I suggested no matter how much better my plan was... sans the team speed, lineup construction, defense and team building thingy stuff-a-macallit I'm not really paying attention to.

Oh well, thanks for the stroll down fantasy lane.

God damn that lineup would mash. 

[Noe]

God damn that lineup would mash. 

And the Astros should employ no pitcher that can't outhit Micah Owings.  Make it so Wade!

[Matt]

Wade has continuously hammered speed and defense as his goal.  He even mentions modeling the team after the Angels.  Yet people still complain about this trade and won't comprehend the plan that is far from hidden.

[Noe]

Wade has continuously hammered speed and defense as his goal.  He even mentions modeling the team after the Angels.  Yet people still complain about this trade and won't comprehend the plan that is far from hidden.

Luke Scott is a fine outfielder and middle of the lineup hitter.  But he's not fast and he's got some defensive challenges living out in RF.  His best position is LF and eventually it may pan out that he's a DH, sort of like Carlos Lee.  But to put Scott in a lineup that features no team speed, no defensive prowess (or limited) and no help to a pitcher other than offense (and that is spotty too) is not the best idea.  Does that mean Scott is a bad player?

Far from it, but much like Bourn was "expendable" in Philly (because they had top of the lineup guys in Rollins and Victorino already and speed guys in the outfield like Rowand and Victorino as well), Scott is expendable in Houston.  He is the #3 guy behind Lee and Pence in terms of being the same type of guys: LFs playing a little out of position any where else.  Pence is the most athletic and to his benefit he can adapt a little easier... but to stretch that to being a legit CF in Minute Maid... well, that's not fair to him nor to the club.

So the aspect of team speed, playing those strengths to the core players (Berkman, Lee and Pence) means you make moves like this and yes, guys like Scott become "expendable".  None of which means Scott is a bad player, he's just not the candidate for what they're trying to do beyond acceptance of being a solid 4th outfielder who should work his butt off to show everyone he can play if given the chance and he can also stay healthy.  That makes his trade value higher and you never really go through a season when you keep every one of your starters healthy.

Pence missed a huge chunk of time last season in his limited time, so you need a backup for RF just in case.  But overall, Scott should be aware of what they're trying to do in terms of team speed and how he doesn't fit that mold for a starters job right now.  But he could be valuable as a replacement player if needed.

I doubt he'll want to stick around to do that though and the Astros will be forced to look around for options in that area.

[VirtualBob]

I definitely don't think       .

FIFY

[VirtualBob]

/snip/

2002: -11 fraa, 20 out of 22 qualifying CFers in zone rating, dead last in range factor. Hunter last season would have been (if he qualified) 8 of 18 in range factor, 9 of 18 in zone rating, 5 fraa.

Definitely would like to know the fielding bible +/- stats for Hunter too, my guess would put him dead average.

This is great!  Where do you find this stuff?  Looks like it would save a lot of wasted time watching games!!

[DVauthrin]

I agree with you about scott, noe, I also think with the lack of trade chips in the minors, scott may be the biggest asset they have to upgrade an area of need, cough, pitching, cough.

[PCOL2000]

i pretty muuch lurk, but since when are smiley faces acceptable around here?

except for guys from finland or wherever (67 and Jan)

[Phil_in_CS]

i pretty muuch lurk, but since when are smiley faces acceptable around here?

they aren't, but its helpful to leave them enabled to make spotting the clueless easier.

[PCOL2000]

gotta draw the line somewhere

[Burzmali]

Luke Scott is a fine outfielder and middle of the lineup hitter.  But he's not fast and he's got some defensive challenges living out in RF.  His best position is LF and eventually it may pan out that he's a DH, sort of like Carlos Lee.  But to put Scott in a lineup that features no team speed, not defensive prowess (or limited) and no help to a pitcher other than offense (and that is spotty too) is not the best idea.  Does that mean Scott is a bad player?

Far from it, but much like Bourn was "expendable" in Philly (because they had top of the lineup guys in Rollins and Victorino already and speed guys in the outfield like Rowand and Victorino as well), Scott is expendable in Houston.  He is the #3 guy behind Lee and Pence in terms of being the same type of guys: LFs playing a little out of position any where else.  Pence is the most athletic and to his benefit he can adapt a little easier... but to stretch that to being a legit CF in Minute Maid... well, that's not fair to him nor to the club.

So the aspect of team speed, playing those strengths to the core players (Berkman, Lee and Pence) means you make moves like this and yes, guys like Scott become "expendable".  None of which means Scott is a bad player, he's just not the candidate for what they're trying to do beyond acceptance of being a solid 4th outfielder who should work his butt off to show everyone he can play if given the chance and he can also stay healthy.  That makes his trade value higher and you never really go through a season when you keep every one of your starters healthy.

Pence missed a huge chunk of time last season in his limited time, so you need a backup for RF just in case.  But overall, Scott should be aware of what they're trying to do in terms of team speed and how he doesn't fit that mold for a starters job right now.  But he could be valuable as a replacement player if needed.

I doubt he'll want to stick around to do that though and the Astros will be forced to look around for options in that area.

Yeah, maybe they can trade him for a closer?

[Burzmali]

Noe, speaking of pitching and defense..

I just remembered this really good article that i think you should read / would like, that I read in one of BP's latest books about playoffs success called "why doesn't billy beane's shit work in the playoffs", or something to that effect.

They did a study on playoff success, and found that the three things that correlated most strongly with success were defense (as measured by fielding runs above average, and unearned runs), overall pitching staff strikeout rate, and closer performance. 2005 Astros, eh?

The problem is getting to the playoffs.

[Ty in Tampa]

Pitching and defense? No shit?

[Jacksonian]

I don't think it's all that complicated, but OK.

Anyway, if you've been told for a fact that Anderson was in line to be the starter in center field until Bourn was acquired, then that's that. I have no problem with it. You do seem, however, to be scoffing at the idea that one could logically believe that Pence was the de facto starter in CF until Bourn was acquired. That attitude is what I don't get.

Goodness you and Burz have short memories.  If Pence were going to be the starting CF for 2008 the Astros would not have installed Anderson in center for September.  As has been pointed out Pence has never been an everyday CF.  You don't remove an inexperienced player from a position if you expect that player to be the starter in that position.  If Pence were going to be the CF the Astros would have wanted him to get all the experience there he could which would have meant a September outfield of Lee/Pence/Whoever.  Instead the Astros recognized that Pence wasn't good enough out there to justify giving him that position.  Hence, the Anderson promotion and starting job.  Which also leads to the most logical conclusion that Pence was NOT going to be the Astros starting CF.  Anderson was it.  That's why they dealt for Bourn.

[Limey]

Just wait til Milo calls him Costanzy.  Wonder what he'll do with Bourn?

Cosy and Bourny.  Done.

[Froback]

Cosy and Bourny.  Done.

Even without trying to think of what his nicknames will be, you can be sure he will have a whole host of pre-scripted comments relating to Jason Bourne references and Seinfeld references.

[Limey]

Even without trying to think of what his nicknames will be, you can be sure he will have a whole host of pre-scripted comments relating to Jason Bourne references and Seinfeld references.

The Chronicle staff have all the time running up to Spring Training to beat him to it.  It's going to be bad.

[Zac D]

Goodness you and Burz have short memories.  If Pence were going to be the starting CF for 2008 the Astros would not have installed Anderson in center for September.  As has been pointed out Pence has never been an everyday CF.  You don't remove an inexperienced player from a position if you expect that player to be the starter in that position.  If Pence were going to be the CF the Astros would have wanted him to get all the experience there he could which would have meant a September outfield of Lee/Pence/Whoever.  Instead the Astros recognized that Pence wasn't good enough out there to justify giving him that position.  Hence, the Anderson promotion and starting job.  Which also leads to the most logical conclusion that Pence was NOT going to be the Astros starting CF.  Anderson was it.  That's why they dealt for Bourn.

I don't believe anyone forgot that Anderson started in center for most of September. Young players, particularly on non-contending teams, get a look in September pretty regularly, as you know well. It makes sense to think that perhaps the best way to get a read on Anderson's major-league potential was to install him at a position he's comfortable with and let him play.

I just don't think it's completely illogical to have assumed that Pence would have been the de facto 2008 starter in center over Anderson. Apparently incorrect, based on Noe's information, but not illogical. The thought process is the only thing I'm defending here.

[Noe]

Yeah, maybe they can trade him for a closer?

I think they seriously would rather keep him.  But Scott has been known before to be a bit of a sulker and whiner (to the media especially).  His attitude in Round Rock one year he was sent down almost cost him his career.  Good thing Jackie Moore got to him before organizational men had to get down to Round Rock and lay the law down for him.

Scott, for all his good ways, has a tendency to be overly passionate... about himself.

[Noe]

I don't believe anyone forgot that Anderson started in center for most of September. Young players, particularly on non-contending teams, get a look in September pretty regularly, as you know well. It makes sense to think that perhaps the best way to get a read on Anderson's major-league potential was to install him at a position he's comfortable with and let him play.

I just don't think it's completely illogical to have assumed that Pence would have been the de facto 2008 starter in center over Anderson. Apparently incorrect, based on Noe's information, but not illogical. The thought process is the only thing I'm defending here.

Well, truth be told, you've been a bit passionate in defending Pence at every turn in here because you think we tend to ride him hard (which we don't).  It is sort of like the WulawHorn defense of every move Vince Young makes.  If anyone dares to question something about the player, we could count on WH to come in and set us all straight.  Some thought that perhaps it was just a tad unnatural the way WH defended VY... so they started asking him if he would like to have VY's baby someday.  So I can understand your point of view, but nothing I've said means Hunter Pence (nor Luke Scott) are horrible players.

They're just *NOT* the answer for a CF job in Minute Maid Park.  Anyone with two eyes could see that and truth be told, Josh Anderson was damn good in his short time patrolling the expanse at the MMPUS.  Bourn will be better.

All we are saying is that an organization goes into a season with eyes wide open as to the makeup of it's team.  If they feel their best CF is maybe one year away, they might want to go with Pence for the interim.  However this is the sort of thinking that got them, what... 77 wins in 2007?  LEE/PENCE/SCOTT outfield is not a pitcher friendly nor MMPUS friendly option.  May as put LEE/PENCE/BERKMAN out there if all you care about is offense, because that will get you more runs than LEE/PENCE/SCOTT.  But we're not talking offense, we're talking defense.

When you hear a team speak about the deficiency as early as September (lack of team speeed, defense) like Cooper did and then it became the mantra soon after the season was over, you knew they were not going to go with the status quo on defense.  Meaning the days of Pence in CF were pretty much over.  But the days of Anderson in CF weren't really ready for Houston's point of view... so they went shopping.

Why is that hard to understand?

[Jacksonian]

I don't believe anyone forgot that Anderson started in center for most of September. Young players, particularly on non-contending teams, get a look in September pretty regularly, as you know well. It makes sense to think that perhaps the best way to get a read on Anderson's major-league potential was to install him at a position he's comfortable with and let him play.

I just don't think it's completely illogical to have assumed that Pence would have been the de facto 2008 starter in center over Anderson. Apparently incorrect, based on Noe's information, but not illogical. The thought process is the only thing I'm defending here.

It is illogical if you understand development.

[Froback]

Goodness you and Burz have short memories.  If Pence were going to be the starting CF for 2008 the Astros would not have installed Anderson in center for September.  As has been pointed out Pence has never been an everyday CF.  You don't remove an inexperienced player from a position if you expect that player to be the starter in that position.  If Pence were going to be the CF the Astros would have wanted him to get all the experience there he could which would have meant a September outfield of Lee/Pence/Whoever.  Instead the Astros recognized that Pence wasn't good enough out there to justify giving him that position.  Hence, the Anderson promotion and starting job.  Which also leads to the most logical conclusion that Pence was NOT going to be the Astros starting CF.  Anderson was it.  That's why they dealt for Bourn.

Thank you for pointing this out.  I thought I was the only one to think this as I read through the arguing.

Basically you can look at the Astros thinking this way:

April 07: Burke is going to be our everyday replacement for Biggio, but is wasting away on the bench, we need to get him into the everyday line-up to prepare him for that roll.  With Taveras gone, we need a lead-off hitter and CF, and Burke looks like he can do both.  Although we are hoping a bit on the CF area, so let's get Pence some time in AAA there just in case.
May 07: Crap Burke shit the bed in all areas, where can we find a CF, because Jason Lane isn't getting it done either.  Hey look Pence is really doing well so far.  Let's give him a shot, cause what we are doing now isn't working.
June 07: Holy crap can that Pence kid hit.  He is really been a spark plug to the line-up.  Need to keep him in there, and while his defense isn't as good as Lane can give us, Scott is looking twice the hitter Lane is.  Lesser of evils Pence in CF, Scott in RF.
Sep 07: Now that we can expand our rosters and our AAA and AA teams have stunk, we can do this immediately.  Since we are out of things, let's mix and match a bit to see what they kids can do.  Hey that Towles kid is really comming on strong.  Didn't think he would be ready this soon, that is a nice sign.  Let's see what this Anderson kid can do, maybe some of Towles magic will rub off on him too.  Hmm, Anderson is all we thought he was defensively (MLB ready) and his offense isn't half bad, but his track record didn't indicate this.  Towles showed promise of this, but Anderson is doing much better than we had expected.
Oct 07: Ok, let's look at our options.  We want to focus on improving the teams defense and speed, because this team seems to have become very one-dimensional and station to station type scoring.  This was not working for the team.  Anderson was ok in CF, but we just don't trust him to be the only option with Pence the only back-up if he flops like Burke did last season.  So let's see what is out there.  Hmm, several nice but expensive options for CF in the FA market.  Wonder if we can take to one of those teams with a young CFer who can also be a lead-off guy.  Let's go talk to Phili again about Bourn.  They spurned our offers at the deadline because they had a bunch of injuries and were making a playoff push, maybe they will be more agreeable now. Oh good, Ausmus agreed to come back as the back-up Catcher to Towles and his mentor.  That should work out well, cause if anyone can teach you how to be a better catcher, Brad is definately the guy.
Nov 07: Deal has been made. It costs up Lidge, which hurts, but now we have 2 options in CF with Pence as a fall back.  This make Scott a bench player though.  Would like to see him in the line-up, but there just doesn't seem to be a spot, with our need for a better CF than Pence, and Pence and Lee being so important to the line-up.  Lee was voted one of the best OFers in 07 and Pence is a huge PR machine for us right now, just can't see us moving either one to make room for him.  But now have a definate lead-off hitter and solid defensive CF in Bourn or Anderson (we will let them battle it out in Spring Training).  Now let's go look at the best way to address the loss of Lidge...  We have Qualls, but are there better options internally or externally?  Let's talk to the FA closers and see what they are asking for.  Oh, and we better look at getting a good innings eater for the staff.  We would like to see these kids step up, but so far they show flashes, but can't seem to put it all together.  And Woody is ok, but he is becomming more of a back-end/mentor type than a solid #2 like he was earlier in his career.  Still good to have the vets around to help mentor the young kids that we have developing.  Wonder if this Costanzo kid can push Wigginton, or if we need to also look at upgrades there?  A-Rod and Lowell look like out of our league, but who else is there?  Oh and all we have at 2B is Burke right now.  Let's see we have a couple of in house guys.  Let's call the FA 2B guys and gauge their interest and demands.  Alright people, we have done ok so far, but we still have alot of work to do in putting this team in the best shape for 08.  Let's go!

How about that?

[Noe]

Pretty good summation.  Had I wrote it, it would've been just a tad longer... like maybe 10,000 more words... per paragraph!

BTW - you mentioned Towles.  One thing about the trade of Brad Lidge, it was apparent that his slider was so nasty, it was not only unhittable... it was uncatchable.  It was okay in 2004-2005 when Brad Ausmus was indeed the everyday catcher.  But in the last few years, Brad has been in and out of the lineup to try and gauge what they might have in other catchers, like Munson and Quintero primarily.  Neither one of them could catch Lidge effectively.  In fact, it only added to the frustration to have to think that Lidge would have to shelve the slider because he just didn't trust him guy behind the plate to catch the damn thing.

Good luck in Philly... but I digress.

Any way, Towles showed on occasion that he could catch Brad's slider.  I was shocked in the Pittsburgh game when Lidge came out to warm up and Towles was sent out to continue catching.  I was sure Ausmus would pop out of the dugout.  Towles did fine behind the plate, but guess what... Lidge threw fastball after fastball by the Pirate hitters and only threw two sliders that I could count (both to Nady, who he got to pop out to center on a high heater inside... by the way, why Lidge never busted that guy up and in before was beyond me, Nady leans over the plate to spoil sliders... sit his arse down!... but I digress again).

So now Towles is going to be the every day catcher, or semi-everyday.  He has one less worry now, learning how to catch the nastiest slider in the business.

[Jose Cruz III]

This may have been covered as I didn't read 15 pages, but although I agree it could be a man crush I hope there is some way that they can bring back Mike Lamb for the LH bench player instead of Scott. I know he is not in the elite of the defensive players in the league but he can play both infield corner spots and even play a little in a corner OF spot, although probably not a smart thing to do except in an extreme pinch. Plus he has a dependable bat off the bench.

Some team will probably give him a full time starting job and sing him but I wish the Astros could break camp next spring with both Lamb and Loretta in tow.

[Noe]

This may have been covered as I didn't read 15 pages, but although I agree it could be a man crush I hope there is some way that they can bring back Mike Lamb for the LH bench player instead of Scott. I know he is not in the elite of the defensive players in the league but he can play both infield corner spots and even play a little in a corner OF spot, although probably not a smart thing to do except in an extreme pinch. Plus he has a dependable bat off the bench.

Some team will probably give him a full time starting job and sing him but I wish the Astros could break camp next spring with both Lamb and Loretta in tow.

Lamb is all but gone because there are teams already lining up ready to hand him at the very least a first baseman job.  Texas is one of them.

[Froback]

This may have been covered as I didn't read 15 pages, but although I agree it could be a man crush I hope there is some way that they can bring back Mike Lamb for the LH bench player instead of Scott. I know he is not in the elite of the defensive players in the league but he can play both infield corner spots and even play a little in a corner OF spot, although probably not a smart thing to do except in an extreme pinch. Plus he has a dependable bat off the bench.

Some team will probably give him a full time starting job and sing him but I wish the Astros could break camp next spring with both Lamb and Loretta in tow.

See what Noe said about Lamb, but if you think singing to him would work... umm, just don't ask me, I can't carry a tune at all.  As for Loretta, my guess is alot will depend on what 2B options the Astros acquire(or don't) and what other teams come calling.  I am guessing no matter or Mark goes, he will at best be competing for a starting gig, if not be told he will be comming off the bench.  If that latter is true, he has shown a desire to be in Houston, so we can hope in that area.

[Astroholic]

I was wondering if the stros would make a run at Dunn for 1b and play lance in right.

Okay I'll bite.  If the stros would do this, why not put Berkman in Right, Pence in Left and Lee at first instead?  Do you think Dunn > Lee?  Or how about
(Lee - Burkman) + ((Burke - (Anderson/Boure)/ (Everett - (Ausmus/Towles))>= Oswalt      

You have got to be fucking kidding me.

[Zac D]

Well, truth be told, you've been a bit passionate in defending Pence at every turn in here because you think we tend to ride him hard (which we don't).

I think you may be confusing me with someone else. Unless you're talking about this thread alone, in which case I simply don't agree with your above statement - but I don't think you are, given the WH/VY comparison.

BTW - you mentioned Towles.  One thing about the trade of Brad Lidge, it was apparent that his slider was so nasty, it was not only unhittable... it was uncatchable.  It was okay in 2004-2005 when Brad Ausmus was indeed the everyday catcher.  But in the last few years, Brad has been in and out of the lineup to try and gauge what they might have in other catchers, like Munson and Quintero primarily.  Neither one of them could catch Lidge effectively.  In fact, it only added to the frustration to have to think that Lidge would have to shelve the slider because he just didn't trust him guy behind the plate to catch the damn thing.

This is an interesting, and new, point about the trade. Will certainly be interesting to see how often he throws the slider next year - and if it gets by Ruiz within the first few times he throws it, whether he shelves it.

It is illogical if you understand development.

Okay.

[Noe]

I think you may be confusing me with someone else. Unless you're talking about this thread alone, in which case I simply don't agree with your above statement - but I don't think you are, given the WH/VY comparison.

Perhaps your right, I am confusing you with someone else.  Pence is a great kid, his Mom is even a member here (and still reads most every day too).  She knows that we are not down on her son, so no one else should be thinking the same either.  But suffice it to say, Pence is not a CF.

This is an interesting, and new, point about the trade. Will certainly be interesting to see how often he throws the slider next year - and if it gets by Ruiz within the first few times he throws it, whether he shelves it.

He won't have Brad Ausmus as his safety net any more.  I noticed that Brad tried to learn how to throw a slider that doesn't bite as much but falls into the strikezone, like a hump-back curve.  He was using that as a sort of change of speed pitch more so than a true slider.  The nasty slider was the one he threw primarily when he got ahead of the count.  It got to the point in the season when you knew what pitches he was going to use based on the count.  On occasion, he'd throw the fastball on an 0-2 count and cross everyone up, but you could take your chances that if Lidge had you down 0-2, you could spit on the next two pitches because they would be the nasty slider that breaks severely out of the zone.  Then would come the hump-back slider that you could spoil.  Then a fastball away (Lidge does not throw inside hard stuff for some reason... don't ask me to explain it).  Then, depending on the severity of the situation, you'd get a high fastball, down the middle of the plate or a fastball away again.  Either way, you were going to hit the ball or walk.  You never saw a 3-2 nasty slider from Lidge.

If he shelves the nasty slider because it's uncatchable, he's going to struggle.

[MusicMan]

(Lee - Burkman) + ((Burke - (Anderson/Boure)/ (Everett - (Ausmus/Towles))>= Oswalt      

What is the second derivative of this?

[Astroholic]

What is the second derivative of this?

Fuck if I know...ask the expert.

[Jacksonian]

Pretty good.  I would add the bolded:

Sep 07: Now that we can expand our rosters and our AAA and AA teams have stunk, we can do this immediately.  Since we are out of things, let's mix and match a bit to see what they kids can do.  Hey that Towles kid is really comming on strong.  Didn't think he would be ready this soon, that is a nice sign.  New GM changing things up.  Pence isn't good enough in center for what we want to do. Let's see what this Anderson kid can do, maybe some of Towles magic will rub off on him too.  Hmm, Anderson is all we thought he was defensively (MLB ready) and his offense isn't half bad, but his track record didn't indicate this.  Towles showed promise of this, but Anderson is doing much better than we had expected.

[Noe]

Pretty good.  I would add the bolded:

Plus the move for guys like Paulino, Anderson and Towles to come up were the idea of Tal Smith, the interim GM because he differed in attitude about those players than Purpura.  Had Purpura stayed on as GM, I can see him stick to his guns and say that Pence is still the CF for this team.

Purpura's take on the team changed the day Tal Smith took over.  Ed Wade is just one step away from the same Tal Smith ideals on how to improve this team.  That includes Towles as an everyday catcher in the majors (different than Purpura), Paulino as a viable candidate for the bullpen (different than Purpua) and of course Anderson as the CF for the Astros if he can play (very different than Purpura).

You're also going to see more of kids like Josh Flores, Barthmaier, Mueke, Enierston (all the AFL guys basically) being pushed by Wade and Smith because it's going to be necessary to do so.

[Jacksonian]

You're also going to see more of kids like Josh Flores, Barthmaier, Mueke, Enierston (all the AFL guys basically) being pushed by Wade and Smith because it's going to be necessary to do so.

I wouldn't be surprised if 1 or more of those guys were included in any trades this winter.

[Noe]

I wouldn't be surprised if 1 or more of those guys were included in any trades this winter.

I've read Josh Anderson involved in trade talks (he must of opened some eyes this September beyond just in Houston).  I've also hear Tommy Manzella, who I hope the Astros hold on to.  Of the two, obviously would hate to lose Manzella more than Anderson.  I also think Josh Flores will be interesting to follow in AAA along with Einerston making his way to AA (if that is to happen).

[Jacksonian]

I've read Josh Anderson involved in trade talks (he must of opened some eyes this September beyond just in Houston).  I've also hear Tommy Manzella, who I hope the Astros hold on to.  Of the two, obviously would hate to lose Manzella more than Anderson.  I also think Josh Flores will be interesting to follow in AAA along with Einerston making his way to AA (if that is to happen).

Einertson is the guy I'm seeing who might be coveted by other teams.

[Duman]

Einertson is the guy I'm seeing who might be coveted by other teams.

After two seasons of under perfroming and having off field issues, he has performed well this season and is having some return of his power in AFL.  If he was a stock, I would sell now!

[Randy Watson]

You got to have defense up the middle.  Getting Bourn solidifies CF.  It also helps payroll.

The mistake the Astros made IMO was signing Lee to a big contract.  I would have much rather have spent that money on pitching or second base.  Finding a corner OF is a lot easier than finding pitching.  Especially since we had Pence coming up, who is a corner OF.  And we had Scott.  We would be much better off with a Scott - Bourn - Pence OF and using all that money spent on Lee for pitching.

We need pitching bad.  I'm sure Wade will do all he can to address pitching.

[toddthebod]

Lee cost a lot of money, but he's good.  real good.  I don't think that his signing was a mistake. 

As for spending money on second base and starting pitching -- instead of spending the money on Lee -- who were you going to get to start?  The available starters in the free agent market sucked.  And they cost a lot of money.  And the Astros weren't going out to get a starting second baseman last season because Biggio was going to get the majority of the starts at second.     

[Mr. Happy]

The mistake the Astros made IMO was signing Lee to a big contract.

Bullshit. Can you imagine where we'd have finished this season with the work of Carlos Lee?

[Noe]

You got to have defense up the middle.  Getting Bourn solidifies CF.  It also helps payroll.

The mistake the Astros made IMO was signing Lee to a big contract.  I would have much rather have spent that money on pitching or second base.  Finding a corner OF is a lot easier than finding pitching.  Especially since we had Pence coming up, who is a corner OF.  And we had Scott.  We would be much better off with a Scott - Bourn - Pence OF and using all that money spent on Lee for pitching.

We need pitching bad.  I'm sure Wade will do all he can to address pitching.

I think that's fair to say in hindsight (or even if you had the foresight to say it way back when).  But several points to consider:

1. Lee is far more a refined hitter (not just a slugger) than many believed.  His ability is beyond being a slugger.  He is arguably the best hitter on the team when it comes to approach.  I've seen enough of Scott to say he's not anywhere near what Lee is.  Lee is right up there with Berkman in terms of being a rock solid hitter.  Scott is hot and cold and when cold he's nowhere near the refined hitter that Lee or Berkman are for this team.

2. McLane wanted the quick fix to being a contender for a World Series.  Lee was a target he wanted to get done.  Hard to go against the wishes of the owner at times.

3. What pitching?  Gil Meche was the poster child for the overspending that went on for starters.  Ugh, it's uglier this off-season and no one wants to make *that* mistake this off-season.

[Randy Watson]

I wasn't just talking about using the money last year or this year.  If we would have just signed Lee to a two year contract, then I would not have had a problem with the deal.  I meant for the life of the contract.  Lee is just going to get older and fatter as his contract progresses.  I would have taken my chances with other options instead of Lee, and used the money elsewhere.

Drayton was a damn idiot for thinking Lee was the missing link on last year's team anyway.  Anyone with any sense who could peruse our pitching staff knew we were in for a long year in 2007. 

[Ty in Tampa]

I've now seen it all on teh internets; signing Lee was a mistake.

[JimR]

I wasn't just talking about using the money last year or this year.  If we would have just signed Lee to a two year contract, then I would not have had a problem with the deal.  I meant for the life of the contract.  Lee is just going to get older and fatter as his contract progresses.  I would have taken my chances with other options instead of Lee, and used the money elsewhere.

Drayton was a damn idiot for thinking Lee was the missing link on last year's team anyway.  Anyone with any sense who could peruse our pitching staff knew we were in for a long year in 2007. 

ridiculous. this kind of crap makes the TZ look like the millions of mindless sites that are out there.

[Noe]

If we would have just signed Lee to a two year contract, then I would not have had a problem with the deal. 

Yeah, but why would Lee agree to that (free agency gives the player all the leverage)?  The Giants actually offered *more* than the Astros, so it's a strawman to say they should've signed him to two years.  May as well say they shouldn't have even pursue him.

[Noe]

ridiculous. this kind of crap makes the TZ look like the millions of mindless sites that are out there.

To compare Scott to Lee as being the same was somewhat shocking.

[Froback]

I wasn't just talking about using the money last year or this year.  If we would have just signed Lee to a two year contract, then I would not have had a problem with the deal.  I meant for the life of the contract.  Lee is just going to get older and fatter as his contract progresses.  I would have taken my chances with other options instead of Lee, and used the money elsewhere.

Drayton was a damn idiot for thinking Lee was the missing link on last year's team anyway.  Anyone with any sense who could peruse our pitching staff knew we were in for a long year in 2007. 

The only reason his deal is bad is if you think he will suck after this year (since you stated you would have been fine with a 2-yr deal).  One, how do you know he will suck after this year since he was so productive he was rated as one of the top 3 OFers in the NL last year. Two, The only way he is bad for the team is if his contract prevents the Astros from signing another FA that would help the team as much or more than him -OR- he is blocking some player in the Organization from being able to play who would be as productive or more so.

So for the first you have to have the powers to see the future because if 07 was any indicator he is pretty damn good even being fat and old. (which I don't think he is either, at least detrimentally)

The second part I have a hard time in believing because the Astros have a lack of talented position players in the high minors as it is, I doubt Lee is holding any of THEM back.  And Drayton really has shown he will spend the money needed to get the talent that he thinks will help the club.  He did it with Pettitte and Clemens.  He did it with Lee.  He tried to do it with Beltran.  He has paid what it took to keep the talent he has from leaving.  I have yet to see him balk at paying someone to help this team.

So I just don't get any of your hatred for Lee.  Would it be nice if he was more Beltran-like with his defense and speed on the bases... sure.  But then I bet his contract would have been a ton bigger, and Houston would have had alot more competition for his services when they signed him too.

Lee is the best RBI guy on the team, bar NONE.  And he is argueably the best hitter right now.  His defense is lacking, but in case you didn't notice, alot of LF in ML baseball are not very good that way.  It is the primary spot to put big stick, poor defensive OF.  Red Sox just won a World Series with Manny, and I think Lee is a better fielder than Manny.  So what gives?  Did he punk you at some point?  You have a thing against his nickname?  What is it that makes you hate him so?

[Reuben]

3. What pitching?  Gil Meche was the poster child for the overspending that went on for starters.  Ugh, it's uglier this off-season and no one wants to make *that* mistake this off-season.

Exactly. And Barry Zito was the FA pitcher equivalent of Carlos Lee last year. I'd say Zito is much more overpaid than Lee. On the other hand, as has been discussed at length on this site, it is perhaps not ideal to have two slow-moving sluggers with limited fielding ability on an NL team, so in that sense maybe you could argue signing Lee was a mistake. 

[Arky Vaughan]

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I still question whether Luke Scott has established himself as a good enough hitter to hold down a full-time major-league job. In roughly a season's worth of plate appearances he's batted .273/.366/.516, but Scott's been very streaky in compiling those averages over parts of three seasons. Scott turns 30 in June, so he's not exactly young.

If the Astros had a 29-year-old player who'd batted .273/.366/.516 over several seasons as a regular, they might've thought differently about how to fit Scott onto the team defensively. Of couse, a 29-year-old player with those numbers as a starter for several seasons would be coming up on a pretty big payday. In any event, even without considering the defense, it's not that easy to pencil Scott in for a certain level of production in 2008.

With an even briefer track record, Bourn is also a gamble offensively, but the Astros at least know what they can expect defensively and on the basepaths. Plus, with Scott now expendable, the Astros may be able to put him into a package that brings back some decent pitching in return. I don't think it's entirely mistaken to consider whether having Pence and Scott in the line-up would result in more runs than having Pence and Bourn in the line-up, but looking at those scenarios in isolation isn't all that helpful to analyzing the value obtained by the Astros in the trade.

[Jacksonian]

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I still question whether Luke Scott has established himself as a good enough hitter to hold down a full-time major-league job. In roughly a season's worth of plate appearances he's batted .273/.366/.516, but Scott's been very streaky in compiling those averages over parts of three seasons. Scott turns 30 in June, so he's not exactly young.

If the Astros had a 29-year-old player who'd batted .273/.366/.516 over several seasons as a regular, they might've thought differently about how to fit Scott onto the team defensively. Of couse, a 29-year-old player with those numbers as a starter for several seasons would be coming up on a pretty big payday. In any event, even without considering the defense, it's not that easy to pencil Scott in for a certain level of production in 2008.

With an even briefer track record, Bourn is also a gamble offensively, but the Astros at least know what they can expect defensively and on the basepaths. Plus, with Scott now expendable, the Astros may be able to put him into a package that brings back some decent pitching in return. I don't think it's entirely mistaken to consider whether having Pence and Scott in the line-up would result in more runs than having Pence and Bourn in the line-up, but looking at those scenarios in isolation isn't all that helpful to analyzing the value obtained by the Astros in the trade.

Scott's injury history factors in as well.

[Arky Vaughan]

i hope this idiot never posts here again.

What makes him an idiot? I may not agree with the substance of his post, but it wasn't inflammatory or insulting.

[Arky Vaughan]

Scott's injury history factors in as well.

Good point. Even if I agreed that the proper comparison is Lee/Pence/Scott vs. Lee/Bourn/Pence, I'm not sure that Scott comes out on top except if you take a strict numerical accounting that rests on a lot of questionable assumptions.

[Arky Vaughan]

ridiculous. this kind of crap makes the TZ look like the millions of mindless sites that are out there.

Rather than the rarefied air that it would otherwise be?

[Arky Vaughan]

3. What pitching?  Gil Meche was the poster child for the overspending that went on for starters.  Ugh, it's uglier this off-season and no one wants to make *that* mistake this off-season.

Noe, you don't understand. If you need it, and you have the money to spend on it, it's out there. You're just not looking hard enough.

[JimR]

What makes him an idiot? I may not agree with the substance of his post, but it wasn't inflammatory or insulting.

i was not aware that joey was taking a poll.

[JimR]

Rather than the rarefied air that it would otherwise be?

if you think this site is like the other fan sites, i'd say you are wrong. not sure about "rarified air," but definitely a cut above.

[Arky Vaughan]

i was not aware that joey was taking a poll.

See above.

[kevinG]

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I still question whether Luke Scott has established himself as a good enough hitter to hold down a full-time major-league job. In roughly a season's worth of plate appearances he's batted .273/.366/.516, but Scott's been very streaky in compiling those averages over parts of three seasons. Scott turns 30 in June, so he's not exactly young.

If the Astros had a 29-year-old player who'd batted .273/.366/.516 over several seasons as a regular, they might've thought differently about how to fit Scott onto the team defensively. Of couse, a 29-year-old player with those numbers as a starter for several seasons would be coming up on a pretty big payday. In any event, even without considering the defense, it's not that easy to pencil Scott in for a certain level of production in 2008.

With an even briefer track record, Bourn is also a gamble offensively, but the Astros at least know what they can expect defensively and on the basepaths. Plus, with Scott now expendable, the Astros may be able to put him into a package that brings back some decent pitching in return. I don't think it's entirely mistaken to consider whether having Pence and Scott in the line-up would result in more runs than having Pence and Bourn in the line-up, but looking at those scenarios in isolation isn't all that helpful to analyzing the value obtained by the Astros in the trade.

I see Bourn as more of a long-term investment than Scott for precisely this reason. Scott, closing in on 30, has precisely one and a half decent major league seasons under his belt. With the inconsistency he's shown, I don't know if he could be counted on as an everyday player.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they go with Pence/Scott or Anderson/Pence from time to time if Bourn gets off to a slow start offensively next year. But if, as a leadoff hitter, Bourn can get on base at a .350 or better clip and steal a few bases, he'll have the spot locked down for a long time.

I think a lot of possible playing time splits might be determined in ST. Anderson is obviously a highly unproven commodity.

[Noe]

Noe, you don't understand. If you need it, and you have the money to spend on it, it's out there. You're just not looking hard enough.

Silly me!

[Arky Vaughan]

if you think this site is like the other fan sites, i'd say you are wrong. not sure about "rarified air," but definitely a cut above.

I don't post anywhere else.

[Noe]

I see Bourn as more of a long-term investment than Scott for precisely this reason. Scott, closing in on 30, has precisely one and a half decent major league seasons under his belt. With the inconsistency he's shown, I don't know if he could be counted on as an everyday player.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they go with Pence/Scott or Anderson/Pence from time to time if Bourn gets off to a slow start offensively next year. But if, as a leadoff hitter, Bourn can get on base at a .350 or better clip and steal a few bases, he'll have the spot locked down for a long time.

I think a lot of possible playing time splits might be determined in ST. Anderson is obviously a highly unproven commodity.

Don't forget about Abercrombie.  All have to prove themselves.  But the key to these guys is that all three: Bourn, Anderson and Abercrombie are well above average CFers.  That's good.

[JimR]

I don't post anywhere else.

despite that fact, i mean.

(rim shot)

[Froback]

Exactly. And Barry Zito was the FA pitcher equivalent of Carlos Lee last year. I'd say Zito is much more overpaid than Lee. On the other hand, as has been discussed at length on this site, it is perhaps not ideal to have two slow-moving sluggers with limited fielding ability on an NL team, so in that sense maybe you could argue signing Lee was a mistake. 

I think you could argue very strongly that Lee was worth his money alot more than Zito was worth his.  Both on pre-07 and 07 performances.  Zito had been showing that his numbers were sliding while Lee was showing at the very least a steady production of quality.  Zito is still living off of one spectacular year (when he won the Cy) and a good 1-2 years leading up to it.  But since he has been sliding more and more to mediocre and was paid like an Ace, even in today's wild spending.  Lee was paid like a strong hitter, but just shy of the elite levels.  And I think he has performed like one.  And time will tell how each will actually do over the lifetime of their contracts, but Lee looks like a safer bet to meet expectation than Zito at this point.

[Arky Vaughan]

I see Bourn as more of a long-term investment than Scott for precisely this reason. Scott, closing in on 30, has precisely one and a half decent major league seasons under his belt. With the inconsistency he's shown, I don't know if he could be counted on as an everyday player.

To be even more precise, he has about a tenth of one season, a third of a second season and a bit more than half of a third season under his belt. I'd be more worried relying on him to fill a full-time job in right field than I am about Bourn filling a full-time role in center field. Not that Bourn and Scott might not prove this sentiment to be incorrect.

[Arky Vaughan]

despite that fact, i mean.

Indeed.

[Arky Vaughan]

I think you could argue very strongly that Lee was worth his money alot more than Zito was worth his.  Both on pre-07 and 07 performances.  Zito had been showing that his numbers were sliding while Lee was showing at the very least a steady production of quality.  Zito is still living off of one spectacular year (when he won the Cy) and a good 1-2 years leading up to it.  But since he has been sliding more and more to mediocre and was paid like an Ace, even in today's wild spending.  Lee was paid like a strong hitter, but just shy of the elite levels.  And I think he has performed like one.  And time will tell how each will actually do over the lifetime of their contracts, but Lee looks like a safer bet to meet expectation than Zito at this point.

Lee did just what the Astros probably were expecting him to do. As for long-term expectations, I doubt many teams sign a player for a contract that long without figuring that they're going to be paying more in the later years than an aging player's performance merits. Part of the price of getting the player up front is to guarantee him security later on.

[NeilT]

Is the poll oddly worded?  If I hope he never posts again, my answer would be yes.  If I would like him to post again, then my answer would be no.  What if I don't care whether he posts or not?

[Arky Vaughan]

Is the poll oddly worded?  If I hope he never posts again, my answer would be yes.  If I would like him to post again, then my answer would be no.  What if I don't care whether he posts or not?

Aren't opinion polls deceptively worded on purpose?

[Gizzmonic]

Aren't opinion polls deceptively worded on purpose?

Would or wouldn't you fail to confirm that you agree with the precise wording, if not the intent, of your previous statement?

[NeilT]

Aren't opinion polls deceptively worded on purpose?

Is this the first OWA poll?  I don't remember ever seeing one, and it has real possibilities.   For instance, "do you plan to eat a chili pie before opening day?" and "should the official food of the Talk Zone be chili pie or tamales?"

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Is this the first OWA poll?  I don't remember ever seeing one, and it has real possibilities.   For instance, "do you plan to eat a chili pie before opening day?" and "should the official food of the Talk Zone be chili pie or tamales?"

I vote we replace the other poll with Neil's poll suggestion.  Bravo Neil... BRAVO.

[Limey]

Aren't opinion polls deceptively worded on purpose?

In almost every case.  It's like Trivial Pursuit: the answer they want is in the question.

[Matt]

Have you ever tried sugar or PCP?   

[pravata]

Pretty good summation.  Had I wrote it, it would've been just a tad longer... like maybe 10,000 more words... per paragraph!

BTW - you mentioned Towles.  One thing about the trade of Brad Lidge, it was apparent that his slider was so nasty, it was not only unhittable... it was uncatchable.  ...

Fucking genius analysis.  Only in the TZ.  Some of you might not be able to breath the air here, but this is dead on.

[pravata]

...They're just *NOT* the answer for a CF job in Minute Maid Park.  Anyone with two eyes could see that and truth be told, Josh Anderson was damn good in his short time patrolling the expanse at the MMPUS.  Bourn will be better....

Oh. Really?  At the beginning of last season Jose de Jesus Ortiz told us that Hunter Pence was a natural centerfielder.  Wouldn't let anybody convince him otherwise.  By the way, Bourne, nicknamed, Burnie, as in jalapeno gas.

[chuck]

By the way, Bourne, nicknamed, Burnie, as in jalapeno gas.

Is this something you know for a fact, or is this something that you just pulled out of your ass?

[Rebel Jew]

What makes him an idiot? I may not agree with the substance of his post, but it wasn't inflammatory or insulting.

anyone who pulls the old "you guys/we" routine is an el idiota in my libro.

[JimR]

anyone who pulls the old "you guys/we" routine is an el idiota in my libro.

agreed. the old "i'm just here to talk baseball and, btw, your GM is a dumbass" routine from another team's fan wears thin quickly.