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Author Topic: Is Gunther a "phenom"?  (Read 3316 times)

pravata

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Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« on: March 09, 2007, 10:59:12 am »
The argument I keep hearing is that if Pence were really a phenom, the Astros shouldn't send him to the minors.  And since he is a "true centerfielder", he could take the job immediately with no learning curve.  From what I understand, neither of these things are true.
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Froback

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2007, 11:09:55 am »
That is correct.  He has been very good at each level, but has hardly made you go "WOW, I can't wait till he gets to the Majors!".  He has show pretty good power potential, but not 50+ type power like a Ryan Howard.  He has show a good bat, like .280-.300 type, but not above that.  He has show some decent strike zone recognition, but nothing to indicate a #3 type hitter in the Majors type.

But he is the unquestioned best position player for the Astros and has been for a couple of years.  The problem lies more in how damning that is for the farm system, than his greatness.

I think he will probably be a good .285/35/100 type guy, which isn't shabby.  I think Carlos Lee is probably his ceiling if you want to look at a ML equivalent.  But I think that is his ceiling, not expectation.  Projecting players is sometimes very hard to do, so who knows.
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jaklewein

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2007, 11:16:19 am »
 I think he will probably be a good .285/35/100 type guy, which isn't shabby.  I think Carlos Lee is probably his ceiling if you want to look at a ML equivalent.

Wow, so the Astros just paid over $100M for a player that "isn't shabby"?
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MusicMan

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2007, 11:16:23 am »
Quote:

I think he will probably be a good .285/35/100 type guy, which isn't shabby.  I think Carlos Lee is probably his ceiling if you want to look at a ML equivalent.  But I think that is his ceiling, not expectation.  Projecting players is sometimes very hard to do, so who knows.



Funny you mention that - BP projects him at .275/21/71 for the midrange, .311/28/89 as the top side.
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Bench

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2007, 11:20:49 am »
I think he's had a "phenomenal" week, so in that sense, yes.
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Limey

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2007, 11:26:50 am »
I'm reserving judgement on the hitters until later in the spring, when the pitchers are starting to dial it up.  Until now, I think the good pitchers who aren't fighting for a place (you know, the ones who can get Lane out with their eyes closed, i.e. half the league) are just throwing slop to get their arm strength up.

When they start snapping off sliders and pulling strings on changeups, that's when we'll get a glimpse of what these "phenoms" are made.  Everyone should be able to hit a fastball...
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Jacksonian

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2007, 12:33:34 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

I think he will probably be a good .285/35/100 type guy, which isn't shabby.  I think Carlos Lee is probably his ceiling if you want to look at a ML equivalent.  But I think that is his ceiling, not expectation.  Projecting players is sometimes very hard to do, so who knows.



Funny you mention that - BP projects him at .275/21/71 for the midrange, .311/28/89 as the top side.



Without saying anything that anyone should pay attention to, after watching him I couldn't help but think that he reminded me of Jason Bay, a little.  Now, forget I wrote taht.
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HurricaneDavid

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2007, 01:28:09 pm »
Quote:

Wow, so the Astros just paid over $100M for a player that "isn't shabby"?



He said Lee is the equivalent of Pence's ceiling, and the .285/35/100 was a more realistic projection.  

Therefore the Astros paid over $100M for a player who is better than "isn't shabby."

At least that's how I read it.
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jaklewein

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2007, 01:42:25 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Wow, so the Astros just paid over $100M for a player that "isn't shabby"?



He said Lee is the equivalent of Pence's ceiling, and the .285/35/100 was a more realistic projection.  

Therefore the Astros paid over $100M for a player who is better than "isn't shabby."

At least that's how I read it.




Ahhhh, you have shown me the light. Thank you.
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Taras Bulba

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2007, 01:43:21 pm »
They were referring to Scott as "Roy Hobbs" a few springs ago and he was shagging flies in Round Rock after about a month, proving baseball is a fairly humbling game.  If Houston was in a similar position as Washington, I'm guessing Pence might be a more realistic option to be on the big club come opening day.  From everything they've said, the organizational brains would like for him to spend a fair amount of the '07 season fending off AAA pitching and Pflugerville cheerleaders.
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Purity of Essence

No? in Austin

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2007, 01:47:39 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Wow, so the Astros just paid over $100M for a player that "isn't shabby"?



He said Lee is the equivalent of Pence's ceiling, and the .285/35/100 was a more realistic projection.  

Therefore the Astros paid over $100M for a player who is better than "isn't shabby."

At least that's how I read it.




Ahhhh, you have shown me the light. Thank you.



Furthermore, what seperates the 100 million guys from the 20 million dollar guys is consistency.  See: Lane, Jason or Ensberg, Morgan for the problem of consistency and how that can effect what you can earn.  See Lee or Berkman or Oswalt to see what consistency will earn you.

The big money goes to those who are consistent, not those who have great years one year and flops the next.  Unless you're Richard Hidalgo in 2000 though, and then you've managed to rake in a monster year.  I would have more problems with those types of deals than with giving Lee is money or Berkman or Oswalt.
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No? in Austin

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #11 on: March 09, 2007, 01:49:46 pm »
Quote:

From everything they've said, the organizational brains would like for him to spend a fair amount of the '07 season fending off AAA pitching and Pflugerville cheerleaders.



"Women weaken legs!" - Jeff Kent
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Duman

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #12 on: March 09, 2007, 01:59:56 pm »
Quote:

He has show pretty good power potential, but not 50+ type power like a Ryan Howard.  
 



You sure about that?  Ryan Howard at age 23 was in the FSL(A+) hitting .304/23/82/888 OPS.

Hunter at 23 was at AA Texas League hitting: 283/28/95 with an OPS of 890.  Pretty similar lines here with Hunter playing a level higher.  Oh and Hunter took 10 more walks and struck out  40 less times.  

I don't profess to be a stat guy but at face value I would choose Hunter as the better prospect at that point in time.  

R. Howard exploded the next year and got his first taste of the bigs at the end of that season. He hasn't slowed down since then.  I would love it if Hunter took a similar path.
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ASTROCREEP

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #13 on: March 09, 2007, 02:10:46 pm »
Quote:

....

But he is the unquestioned best position player for the Astros and has been for a couple of years.  The problem lies more in how damning that is for the farm system, than his greatness.

...




This is what worries me.
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Spider Pellini

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #14 on: March 09, 2007, 02:54:49 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

He has show pretty good power potential, but not 50+ type power like a Ryan Howard.  
 



You sure about that?  Ryan Howard at age 23 was in the FSL(A+) hitting .304/23/82/888 OPS.

Hunter at 23 was at AA Texas League hitting: 283/28/95 with an OPS of 890.  Pretty similar lines here with Hunter playing a level higher.  Oh and Hunter took 10 more walks and struck out  40 less times.  

I don't profess to be a stat guy but at face value I would choose Hunter as the better prospect at that point in time.  

R. Howard exploded the next year and got his first taste of the bigs at the end of that season. He hasn't slowed down since then.  I would love it if Hunter took a similar path.



You want to be careful about projectionating them minor league stats like that...

Mr. Bagwell only hit 4 home runs in almost 500 at bats in his AA season...

On the other hand Mr. Lane somehow managed 38 homers in a little more than 500 at bats in his AA season...

Which one figgers to have a better career?...

Some ballplayers is rabbits, some ballplayers is turtles and some is thoroughbreds...

Reminds me of the time...
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Duman

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #15 on: March 09, 2007, 02:58:31 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

He has show pretty good power potential, but not 50+ type power like a Ryan Howard.  
 



You sure about that?  Ryan Howard at age 23 was in the FSL(A+) hitting .304/23/82/888 OPS.

Hunter at 23 was at AA Texas League hitting: 283/28/95 with an OPS of 890.  Pretty similar lines here with Hunter playing a level higher.  Oh and Hunter took 10 more walks and struck out  40 less times.  

I don't profess to be a stat guy but at face value I would choose Hunter as the better prospect at that point in time.  

R. Howard exploded the next year and got his first taste of the bigs at the end of that season. He hasn't slowed down since then.  I would love it if Hunter took a similar path.



You want to be careful about projectionating them minor league stats like that...

Mr. Bagwell only hit 4 home runs in almost 500 at bats in his AA season...

On the other hand Mr. Lane somehow managed 38 homers in a little more than 500 at bats in his AA season...

Which one figgers to have a better career?...

Some ballplayers is rabbits, some ballplayers is turtles and some is thoroughbreds...

Reminds me of the time...



My point exactly.  Ryan Howard didn't look like a Ryan Howard 50+ home run hitter at 23.
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Lefty

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #16 on: March 09, 2007, 05:33:32 pm »
Quote:

My point exactly.  Ryan Howard didn't look like a Ryan Howard 50+ home run hitter at 23.


Howard & Utley both had their first full big league seasons at age 26.  Somebody might want to tell Palillo.
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MusicMan

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #17 on: March 09, 2007, 06:15:32 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

My point exactly.  Ryan Howard didn't look like a Ryan Howard 50+ home run hitter at 23.


Howard & Utley both had their first full big league seasons at age 26.  Somebody might want to tell Palillo.



He knows.  His response is that the Phillies suck as an organization.

I would say he hasn't considered the fact that they might not be what they are now had they been called up early, but he knows that - he's found his shtick and is sticking to it.
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pravata

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Re: Is Gunther a "phenom"?
« Reply #18 on: March 09, 2007, 06:30:36 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

My point exactly.  Ryan Howard didn't look like a Ryan Howard 50+ home run hitter at 23.


Howard & Utley both had their first full big league seasons at age 26.  Somebody might want to tell Palillo.



He knows.  His response is that the Phillies suck as an organization.

I would say he hasn't considered the fact that they might not be what they are now had they been called up early, but he knows that - he's found his shtick and is sticking to it.



And Ortiz has declared that since the Astros didnt trade Pence in November, they can now have no questions concerning his maturity.  Thus effectively cramming chewed up Chiclets into the locks of their steel trap minds.
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