Messages

1

Talk Zone / Re: Bourn the next to go?!?

« on: August 01, 2011, 09:06:06 am »

For fuel for the fire, an ESPN blogger now writes that advanced numbers back up that Bourn is a better player than Pence. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/14409/bourn-a-more-valuable-player-than-pence

The easy way to compare the value of the two is by looking at the WAR statistic, shorthand for wins above replacement level. This number calculates how many wins a player generates over a theoretical Triple-A player for his position. It factors in hitting, fielding and baserunning.

FanGraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com calculate WAR in different ways, but both rate Bourn as the more valuable player since 2009:

FanGraphs WAR, 2009-2011
Bourn: 13.3
Pence: 9.9

Baseball-Reference WAR, 2009-2011
Bourn: 11.8
Pence: 6.4

The differences in value primarily come from different methods in evaluating fielding (FanGraphs likes both players' defense better than B-R).

You don't have to agree with or even like the WAR statistic. It's just a tool -- a very good one, in my opinion -- in evaluating player performance. I think the main confusion or disagreement comes in understanding the position importance. Bourn is compared to other center fielders; Pence to other right fielders.

I think he's right, all being equal, if I were picking for a pickup game I'm taking Bourn over Pence. The justification for a lower haul for Bourn even in a consensus that he's a player you'd rather have than Pence, obviously, is that he's under control for fewer years. I'm of wait-and-see on the Bourn deal because I'm in favor of trading a player when their value is at their highest and I'm not a fan of negotiating with Boras, so I assume he's gone after next year.

2

Talk Zone / Re: Berkman's contract

« on: July 30, 2010, 07:18:32 pm »

Maybe it's just because it's a slow news Friday night and the big sports media are lazy, but this is looking weird to me. The big media seems to be reporting that the Astros will pay a significant part of salary and get nothing in return, when the deal hasn't been announced.

Is this just a function of "I'm a reporter with ESPN who has contacts with the Yankees, and the Yankees claim they're getting him for nothing, and the Astros are small-market country bumpkins, so I'll just report the official Yankees line that they're fleecing Houston"? Or should I actually be quite pessimistic about what the Astros are going to be getting back in return?

3

Talk Zone / Galarraga Perfecto

« on: June 02, 2010, 08:28:52 pm »

Tragic.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdQi5Gf1xfw

4

Talk Zone / Re: HanRam demands trade, stylist, and jewels

« on: April 01, 2009, 11:38:29 am »

Of course employers have the right to, and probably should, institute some kind of dress code and even facial hair/haircut policy. But it's not like Hanley's dreads were out of control.

But then again, a "no dreads allowed" policy is a lot more clear-cut, rather than having to split hairs over things like dread length in order to prevent something horrendous. And Hanley reacted in a very childish way.

5

Talk Zone / Re: Footer defines "rumor"

« on: June 13, 2008, 12:00:15 pm »

And how were they?

Because personally, I'd be dubaious of them.

Unspectacular, but not sickly.

6

Talk Zone / Re: Footer defines "rumor"

« on: June 13, 2008, 11:53:49 am »

Am I the only one who thinks Beck's Prime has the best fucking burgers around?

No.

I went to a Chili's in Dubai (only place I've ever seen a Chili's outside of the U.S, actually). Not exactly Tex-Mex, but I did have the fajitas.

7

Talk Zone / Re: Bloggers... Full of Shit? Newspaper icon thinks so

« on: May 01, 2008, 03:11:37 pm »

FJM's two takes on the subject:


http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/04/few-words-on-internet.html
http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/04/lets-hit-rewind-on-buzz-bissingers-play.html

On another note, I can normally stomach Jayson Whitlock, even on race. He's certainly more tolerable than Scoop Jackson and the rest of ESPN's race-flamers.

8

Talk Zone / Re: Astros unlucky so far at the plate: BABIP

« on: April 11, 2008, 11:26:06 am »

I've seen the stat show up a few times with regards to Astros in the past. As I recall, Roy has had a low BABIP in the past years. Part of the reason that many "experts" continue to project that Roy's performance will fall off is because his strikeout numbers have decreased each year and the numbers of balls batted in play have increased. Each year he defies these projections by producing remarkably consistent ERAs (especially when you look at the adjusted figures). He manages this with a low BABIP. Some statisticans will tell you (as you are presenting) that everyone will regress to the mean, and Roy is bound to flop when this happens.

I myself like BABIP as a stat. Obviously, you need to take it with a grain of salt. I do also recall (though I'm open to correction) that pitchers' BABIP is more random than hitters'. Though as a factual correction, Roy has posted some very high BABIPs in the past (.310 in 2005, for example). I think the reason the experts project Roy's decline is because one of the most highly correllated year-to-year stats for pitchers, Ks, have been declining for Roy. But like you said, he keeps defying the experts.

And though BABIP does have to be taken with a grain of salt, as it's not totally quantified by luck, this is good news. And it supports what's been said around here that the hitting will eventually fall in line.

9

Talk Zone / Re: Seeking Astros fans in D.C. area

« on: March 25, 2008, 10:29:08 am »

I'm a recent DC move as well, in Columbia Heights (since last summer). I'm psyched for the new stadium, as RFK was just an absolute hellhole. Though I haven't checked ticket prices for an ordinary game, I'm sure we'll be paying for the upgrade.

10

Talk Zone / Re: The lineup

« on: March 14, 2008, 01:27:13 pm »

I just got some MAJOR deja vu because we've been through this all before. Kaz' performance in the two hole is largely, almost entirely, predicated on Bourn, as he displays a huge discrepancy in his hitting/approach situationally.

Man on first only:
.333/.367/.439

No one on, 1/2 out:
.214/.267/.336

Big risk/reward. Also, Burzmali, if you wanted to bring some big-league stat-geekery in here, you'd either argue that the lineup doesn't really matter over the long-term at all, or ignore this whole thread because of that.

11

Talk Zone / Re: Non-bb: Yao Ming out for the season

« on: February 26, 2008, 03:44:51 pm »

This is obviously all semantics, and I know its just getting annoying and nit-picky now... so my bad I'll quit after this.. but that doesn't translate to interchangeable, because there is loss of function if those guys were to play C.  Those guys, for the most part, just go 5-10 minute stretches in games without a C in the lineup.  That doesn't mean that they are interchangeable as a 5, they don't change their individual games any.  You wouldn't sign, for example, LaMarcus Aldridge to be your starting C.  If all these players were truly interchangeable as Cs, you wouldn't sign a true center to start alongside them.

The problem that I see is that the Rockets really have no other options. I doubt that Deke is up to playing even thirty minutes a game, so for the most part, they'll have to go without a true five. What I could see being useful is starting Deke at the five, letting him play 5-6 minutes, then going small, boosting the energy, and try to keep Deke's minutes down while wearing down bigger opponents.

I haven't seen enough of Novak (6-10) to judge his defensive capabilities, but if he's anywhere close, he's a big body, and someone who could be a Mehmet Okur-type player. The Jazz, by the way, trot out Boozer (6-9) and Okur (6-11) as their frontcourt, neither of whom is a true center.

12

Talk Zone / Re: Non-bb: Yao Ming out for the season

« on: February 26, 2008, 02:57:57 pm »

It depends on the offense you're running for 4s and 5s to be interchangeable. With Yao on the floor, they certainly were not. Scola/Landry at the 5 work very differently within the Rockets' system than Yao.

I'd like to see the Rockets try a more uptempo system with Yao out. They certainly have the personnel to go small and push the ball. Alston/Tmac/Battier/Landry/Scola could be a viable starting lineup, and with Brooks/Jackson/Head/Novak/Hayes on the bench, they've got the players to be an energetic run-and-shoot team. As much as I like Deke, he's not gotten the minutes this season and I suspect the coaching staff doesn't believe he's got much left. He should be in the game strictly against the offensive centers no one else has the size to defend (like Howard).

Obviously, significantly altering your offense late in the season is a huge risk, but they simply can't replace what Yao has meant to this team. They've got little to lose, because I don't think they'll be able to consistently score in the half-court offense if no one is commanding double-teams on the block.

I don't know much about Green. I'd like to see him get a shot, but I doubt he can be a significant contributor at this point in his career. And with a playoff spot still possible, I'm not in favor of putting the season in jeopardy by rolling the dice with such an unproven.

13

Beer and Queso / Re: Pole Tax (Non-BB)

« on: December 28, 2007, 12:18:34 pm »

Texas is introducing a $5 tax on those who frequent titty-bars, which will go to fund programs for victims of sex crimes.  If you feel this is an infringement on your first amendment rights, better get down the clubs before the law takes effect on Jan 1. 

I wouldn't be of the opinion that it's an infringement of constitutional rights. I would be of the opinion that it sucks and is a bunch of crap.

14

Talk Zone / Re: "With eyes on Prior"

« on: December 19, 2007, 03:35:13 pm »

It's not a gamble at all for the team.  You spend a year's worth of money.  If he's good, you got a great year or trading piece out of him, as well as additional time to negotiate a long term deal.  If he sucks, you're out one year, with no buyouts, options, etc.

No, I don't think it's a gamble for the team, I think it's a huge gamble by Prior. If he gets injured or under-performs in seeking a one-year deal, he's definitely hurting his long-term contract chances.

15

Talk Zone / Re: "With eyes on Prior"

« on: December 19, 2007, 03:10:53 pm »

Jayson Stark's latest column has a discussion that he had with Prior's agent:

John Boggs [Prior's agent] told Rumblings that Prior is so confident he'll have a big year, he isn't even interested in a two-year deal.

"That's why a two-year deal is not acceptable -- because we're planning on him being good," said Boggs, who has continually declined to discuss the degree of interest from any specific teams. "We're not planning on taking a two-year deal and then having him break down. … We're not even looking for one year and an option. We'll take our chances."

Is this serious? I mean, that's a gigantic gamble for a team and agent to be making, that they just want a one-year deal, have him blow everyone away, and then sign a giant long-term contract? If they're really looking for something so short-term, I think that bodes well for the going-for-broke Wade's chances.

16

Talk Zone / Re: Everybody relax, Congress will fix this right up

« on: December 14, 2007, 04:42:06 pm »

I'm no child-psychology expert or anything, but my two cents' is that NCLB and "teaching to the test" have been horrible disasters in this country. We're teaching "this is what you need to know, don't ask questions" when we should be teaching kids how to have inquisitive mindsets and a passion for knowledge.

That said, that last point isn't entirely a failing of public schools. Parents need to take a more hands-on approach. It's no wonder that homeschooled kids consistently and significantly outperform the public school system.

17

Talk Zone / Re: Everybody relax, Congress will fix this right up

« on: December 14, 2007, 12:19:27 pm »

We may not be getting any smarter relative to other countries, even if we're getting functionally smarter as the Flynn Effect says.

Anyway, while the US may be dumber on average, we've got a different distribution of intelligence. By percentage, we have both more dumb people and smart people than other industrialized nations. But by average, the US cranks out below others.

18

Talk Zone / Re: Everybody relax, Congress will fix this right up

« on: December 14, 2007, 11:05:17 am »

You know, I wonder sometimes... cause the mind wants to wander alot while at work.....  If everyone in America actually voted at every election (rather than the like 12% that actually do) what would our government really look like?  Would they still behave the same way?  Would we still even have a "two party system"?

Interesting question. The Ausssies have mandated voting but a vastly different political system. However, because of the nature of our system (first-past-the-post single-member districts, Presidential system) we will always be a two party system. We'd have to have a radical overhaul of the Constitution to get to a point like, say, Poland, where they have six parties that hold seats in their Parliament (and have had far more than that before reform).

Anyway, I'm against mandated voting. If the populace wants to be apathetic, who are we to stop them?

19

Talk Zone / Re: Mario Williams is a f***ing stud.

« on: December 14, 2007, 10:55:48 am »

Mario is indeed looking like a better overall player now but the rush to judgment on the whole Mario/VY/Bush debate is ridonkulous. Last year, VY and Bush were studs and the Texans were the worst-managed team in history. This year, they're prescient oracles who saw this coming a mile away.

I'm a huge UT fan and still think the Texans shouldn't have passed on Young (related?), but QBs always take more time to develop. Last year, the Titans were winning games with defense, running, and some flashy Young plays that got him anointed. This year their defense and running games are down and Young understandably has been overwhelmed. He needs a few more years to develop and for anyone to have a solid opinion.

I've never been high on Bush. He's an intriguing player, to be sure, but he's definitely not an every-down back in the NFL. The way the Saints used him last year is maybe the best way to utilize his talents (sending him in motion pre-snap, lining up in the slot, change-of-pace for a bruiser like Deuce, trying to bounce him to the outside, punt returns). But this year especially has proven that, if you've got a competent O-line, you can almost pick up anybody off the scrap heap to start at RB in the NFL. Using a high draft pick like that would be a waste.

And of course Mario has been great this year. But I think he was the most NFL-ready of those three players. He's got freakish physical gifts and fits in with the Texans' build-the-D philosophy. Like I said earlier, I still think VY will turn out to be a top-10 starter in the NFL, but Mario certainly was not as bad a pick as heralded at the time.

Everyone needs to ignore the media's rush to crown the best player in the draft. A few years of development is needed.

20

Talk Zone / Re: Cooper drops hint about lineup and his thoughts on base stealing

« on: December 06, 2007, 05:17:26 pm »

So is there no luck at all in baseball? Are there any situations where anyone might consider luck coming into it in some way?

My baseball career never made it past the club level in college, but there were certainly times where I'd smack a line drive directly at the left fielder when an ounce more strength would have sent it just over his head, or a microsecond's difference in starting my swing would have pulled it closer to the line. Luck?

Interesting discussion nonetheless.

21

Talk Zone / Re: Matsui reported to be Astro

« on: November 30, 2007, 04:50:19 pm »

Hate to jump in on the losing side here, and so late, but I'm not a Kaz fan. He's the best option they have now (Burke? No), and maybe the best 2-hole option (Berkman? Crazy.), and possibly the best plug they could get on the FA market. His contract won't kill them, I actually think it's quite reasonable considering the crazy-high contract market nowadays. With that said...

Most of his performance will depend on Bourne. I think that he's going to have a comparably scary lineup behind him now compared to what he had in Colorado (Pence/Berkman/Lee vs. Holliday/Helton/Tulo), so the way pitchers attack him will most likely be similar. His best situational hitting was done with a guy on first or second base, going:

1b: .333/.367
2b: .313/.365

I am, however, concerned about the lack of sacrifices. He had eight of them all year last season, with a total of 162 ABs with runners on. I think that his signing obviously improves over the potential Chris Burke Experience next year, and was perhaps the best that the 'stros could do in their present situation, but my expectations are tempered.

22

Talk Zone / Re: Lidge a Phillie

« on: November 09, 2007, 03:23:28 pm »

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I still question whether Luke Scott has established himself as a good enough hitter to hold down a full-time major-league job. In roughly a season's worth of plate appearances he's batted .273/.366/.516, but Scott's been very streaky in compiling those averages over parts of three seasons. Scott turns 30 in June, so he's not exactly young.

If the Astros had a 29-year-old player who'd batted .273/.366/.516 over several seasons as a regular, they might've thought differently about how to fit Scott onto the team defensively. Of couse, a 29-year-old player with those numbers as a starter for several seasons would be coming up on a pretty big payday. In any event, even without considering the defense, it's not that easy to pencil Scott in for a certain level of production in 2008.

With an even briefer track record, Bourn is also a gamble offensively, but the Astros at least know what they can expect defensively and on the basepaths. Plus, with Scott now expendable, the Astros may be able to put him into a package that brings back some decent pitching in return. I don't think it's entirely mistaken to consider whether having Pence and Scott in the line-up would result in more runs than having Pence and Bourn in the line-up, but looking at those scenarios in isolation isn't all that helpful to analyzing the value obtained by the Astros in the trade.

I see Bourn as more of a long-term investment than Scott for precisely this reason. Scott, closing in on 30, has precisely one and a half decent major league seasons under his belt. With the inconsistency he's shown, I don't know if he could be counted on as an everyday player.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they go with Pence/Scott or Anderson/Pence from time to time if Bourn gets off to a slow start offensively next year. But if, as a leadoff hitter, Bourn can get on base at a .350 or better clip and steal a few bases, he'll have the spot locked down for a long time.

I think a lot of possible playing time splits might be determined in ST. Anderson is obviously a highly unproven commodity.

23

Talk Zone / Smartest Players in MLB

« on: September 20, 2007, 11:19:19 am »

From a Sports Illustrated poll of over 450 MLB players:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/09/19/poll0924/index.html?eref=T1

And yup, Mr. Ausmus cracks the top five. Also the second-highest active player on the list, behind Maddux.

24

Talk Zone / Re: New Manager and New GM?

« on: August 28, 2007, 07:15:28 pm »

Blog by Tim Brown at Yahoo Sports suggests ex-Dodgers GM Dan Evans as a possible candidate for the 'stros job.

Tal Smith knows and likes Evans. McLane ought to find out why.

Of course, it will take a longer vision to advance from stop-gap contention to full organizational health. It would happen under Evans, though it would take some time.

More than 22 months.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/mlb_experts/post/Five-and-Fly-Astros-struggle-to-find-direction;_ylt=Arq1UXq.zKRgajwQP_3qiTE5nYcB?urn=mlb,43205

Any realistic possibility of this? Truth to Tal Smith's liking of Evans? Thoughts on Evans as a potential replacement?

25

Talk Zone / Re: Vick to Plead Guilty (Non-BB)

« on: August 22, 2007, 11:04:45 pm »

Does this mean that you'd feel as comfortable having your kids play with a polar bear as with a bunny rabbit?

Just a disappointing rook's two cents (and I know I'm late to the party) but I'm thinking that, no matter how well all dogs have historically been bred, there have been instances of previously nice dogs snapping and attacking people. It may matter breed-by-breed how often this happens and it may not, I certainly don't know. But it makes a world of difference whether it's a Rottweiler or a Chihuahua when this happens.

26

Talk Zone / Interesting Stark column....

« on: August 16, 2007, 08:07:28 pm »

On some pseudo-obscure records being threatened this season. Both Hanley Ramirez and Brian Roberts are on pace to come close to joining Biggio and Tris Speaker as the only members of the 50 doubles, 50 stolen bases club. Curtis Granderson has 0 GIDP this year thus far, and if he continues for the rest of the season un-doubled, will join Biggio as the only two players in the divisional play era to have 0 GIDP in an entire season.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2976815

27

Talk Zone / Re: shoulda, woulda, coulda

« on: August 13, 2007, 12:12:35 am »

Braun's HR reminded me of Beltran in the playoffs a few years ago when he golfed one off of Tavarez (which of course caused his fit). Just an unbelievable result off of a ball that low and a swing like that.

28

Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Cubs Vs Astros 08/06/07

« on: August 06, 2007, 09:07:22 pm »

Wandy's curve looks absolutely devastating tonight, especially those last two ABs. Crazy movement.

29

Talk Zone / Re: Today's DQ Moment

« on: August 02, 2007, 07:52:09 pm »

Mo, in the postgame:

"I decided I was most successful when I was aggressive and when I swung as hard as I could. I came here with the idea that if I see the ball, I'm going to absolutely let it fly. If not, I'm going to go down in a huge ball of flames."

30

Talk Zone / Re: Craig Biggio Blames Media Pressure For Stalling At 285 Hit-By-Pitches

« on: August 02, 2007, 09:15:43 am »

Kurkjian notes that, perhaps unfairly, Biggio's attempt to break the record has only been embraced in Houston, evidenced by the enormous "Hit By Pitch" countdown sign in left field and by the fireworks that are set off every time Biggio is beaned.

Love the idea.

31

Talk Zone / Re: Ensberg DFA'd

« on: July 29, 2007, 12:26:43 pm »

A sad day, if only for what I'll remember Ensberg for (his 2005 season), and I wish him the best. I've been an Ensberg fan for a long time, even as it's become clearer and clearer that he could never match his career year. And the image of him in 2005, with that badass wide-open stance, always looking to mash the ball, is what I'll remember.

Who knows if he'll fix his problems somewhere else, but good luck Mo.

32

Talk Zone / Re: Interesting stat-related item:

« on: July 26, 2007, 01:16:24 pm »

[Drunken NYY Fan] But that fuckin fuck always chokes in the playoffs! [/Drunken NYY Fan]

Rodriguez HAS had some spectacular postseason failures in the past few years, but for his career he's got a line of .280/.362/.485 in the playoffs, and in the LCS (arguably a bigger sage than the LDS) he hits .315/.413/.611 . He's just had some unfortunate timing with the Yanks and the NYsports media hates him.

They're not entirely unjustified, because he is a douchenozzle. However, if (and when?) Bonds takes the HR record, I'll be rooting for A-Rod. Far lesser of two evils.

33

Talk Zone / Ensberg trade?

« on: July 26, 2007, 11:23:23 am »

Jon Heyman's latest column is all about trade notes from around the league. There's a small little blurb that says

"Word is Joe Torre helped put the kibosh on a Morgan Ensberg deal when the Yankees sought first-base help. Which tells me Torre is actually reading the box scores."

Anyone know if this is actually true or just pure speculation (or lies)? I assume Ensberg is being shopped, just didn't know there was a lot (or any) interest.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/07/26/scoop.thursday/1.html

34

Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Dodgers @ Jennings 7/24

« on: July 24, 2007, 07:40:48 pm »

I'm getting a little tired of Jason Jennings. In my mind I'm always thinking "oh good, it's our number two starter tonight, we might have a chance to win." And three or four innings later and the other team has been smacking him around, and I think about how Purp's big offseason trade looks worse by the start.

35

Talk Zone / Re: Call your shot

« on: July 24, 2007, 01:01:27 pm »

Wheeler and Loretta for Lastings Milledge.


...just kidding.

Adam Dunn to Angels for Scot Shields and Casey Kotchman.

36

Talk Zone / Re: Bruntlett vs. AE?

« on: July 22, 2007, 04:21:12 pm »

oh, please. he had several years in MLB, and he has been back from RR for just a few weeks.

Agreed. Small sample size. Weird things happen when you only have 50-odd ABs. He's hitting .315, far above his career norm. He's also slugging .333, well below his career norm (only 1 XBH so far). Not that Bruntlett is in there for his slugging, but just pointing out that out-of-the-ordinary things can happen when analyzing small numbers.

It'd also surprise me if a 29-year old shortstop suddenly becomes an awesome contact hitter, but hey, stranger things have happened.

37

Talk Zone / Rockets aquisitions (non-bb)

« on: July 21, 2007, 02:48:48 pm »

Rockets fans on this board- thoughts on the offseason so far? Lots of action on the personnel front: Mike James, Luis Scola, now Stevie Francis... Making Rick Adelman head coach... There was an article a few days ago on espn.com saying the Rockets have been the most-improved team this offseason. Are we to be optimistic?

I'm a cautious optimist at best right now... James and Francis are shaky character guys, and with the rumor that Bonzi Wells will be a more enthusiastic member of the team, and despite the fact that TMac has been somewhat reformed in terms of character with the Rockets, it seems to me to be a highly combustible situation.

Anyway, they've got talent by the bucketload now, it's just a question of managing the egos on the team, and I'm not sure that Rick Adelman is capable of that. His tenure from Sacramento comes with the reputation that his team was a little out of his hands.

Again... cautious optimism.

38

Talk Zone / Re: 101 Simpsons Quotes

« on: July 20, 2007, 12:04:42 am »

When I first heard that Marge was joining the police academy, I thought it would be fun and zany. Like that movie.... Spaceballs. But instead, it was dark and disturbing, like that movie Police Academy.

Hank Scorpio (at the controls of doomsday device): What's your least favorite country? Italy or France?
Homer: France.
Hank Scorpio: Hah. Nobody ever says Italy.

39

Talk Zone / Re: If Things Go Badly Tonight

« on: July 17, 2007, 01:41:16 pm »

Well I am switching it up in terms of hat... old-style white hat, navy brim, orange star. My friend who got the tix is going with an Expos cap, perhaps that'll jinx em.

40

Talk Zone / Re: If Things Go Badly Tonight

« on: July 17, 2007, 11:08:23 am »

Well I'm going to the game tonight, and the BBGs don't really seem to like it when I do that. Last time I went (vs. the Nats last year), Roy balked home a run, was pulled after 7 innings when he was absolutely dealing, and Lidge blew the save.

I can't remember the last time I saw the stros actually win a game in person.

41

Talk Zone / Re: Coco Crisp?

« on: July 16, 2007, 06:19:06 pm »

As someone who's got a soft spot for stats from time to time, I'm appalled by that little disaster of sports writing. Taveras made a big leap in terms of offense this year, one that most statgeeks would never have forseen. While I didn't like the trade either (thought Hirsh was a better prospect than what they dealt him for), Taveras' improvement has made the deal look horrible.

Additionally, how much of Willy's stats have been padded by Coors? He's hitting 30 points higher at home and slugging 90 points higher.

There's just waaay too much wrong with all of that writing to really pinpoint one thing coherently, so this has been all over the place.

42

Talk Zone / Re: There's a little black spot in center field today...

« on: July 15, 2007, 12:21:39 pm »

He is a classless bastard.

Wholeheartedly agree. He's a "take the good with the bad" kinda guy. Like people have said, he's poured money and passion into the Mavs where there was none before, but he's made the whole team about himself.

I hate the Mavs, and Mark Cuban is probably a big reason why. I tend to see them as bitter, wild, and undisciplined, and that's all a product of Cuban. Cuban makes classless disparaging comments about other teams, and seems to allow his players to do likewise (Nowitzki has come of as a whiner the past two seasons in their big time playoff losses). Because in recent years the team and the players have gotten so much better (maybe a product of Avery Johnson), but that image remains due to their owner.

43

Talk Zone / Re: Coco Crisp?

« on: July 15, 2007, 12:13:20 pm »

I still believe that a deal with the Tigers is a fit, with Qualls and Scott being the main trading fodder.  I don't believe Houston will trade Lidge and Wheeler (if they can avoid it).  It all depends on what is offered back.

Who do you think we could snatch from the Tiggers? I'd be enthused if we could get a player like Granderson, since we're talking CF, but I would imagine him to fetch a very high price.

44

Talk Zone / Re: Roy ain't Roy in '07

« on: July 14, 2007, 07:58:16 pm »

Has he lost some velocity this year too? Perhaps I never pay enough attention to the radar guns, but I seem to remember some times where he'll top out at 93 mph in a game, rather than the 96 that we've seen previously. And if this is so, has it been a slow decline or is it just this year?

45

Talk Zone / Re: Does anyone think that this team has a chance for the postseason?

« on: July 14, 2007, 03:01:54 pm »

How did that suggest to you that he's interested in the scientific method, much less Emmanuel Kant?  Who, as I spoke to him last Thursday, is unmoved by your disagreement.

Nietzche left me a voicemail rant about how the only chance that this team has for the postseason is a blockbuster Purp trade for the ubermensch. Crazy bastard.

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Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Astros @ sbuC - 7/13/07

« on: July 13, 2007, 01:26:35 pm »

"Not a fan of catching the ball, are you, Trabek?"

Should have qualified-- Offensively.

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Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Astros @ sbuC - 7/13/07

« on: July 13, 2007, 01:22:27 pm »

At the moment, this might be my favorite lineup that Gar can trot out there.

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Talk Zone / Re: Did my ears deceive...

« on: July 08, 2007, 01:10:32 am »

Interesting discussion, so I looked up Loretta's stats on Baseball Prospectus' website... and found out that he pitched in a game all the way back in 2001 with Milwaukee. 1 inning, 5 batters faced, 0 ER, 1H, 1BB, 2K. Is there anything the man can't do?

Irrelevant, of course, but I found it interesting.

And their fielding stats on Loretta, and of course you've got to complement things like this with what you actually see in games, rate him as about an average shortstop. A perfectly serviceable replacement who, like Jim says, will make all the routine plays.

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Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Phillies @ Astros, Phourth of July Special

« on: July 04, 2007, 02:13:37 pm »

Everett in the booth, along the lines of "In spring training, Loretta and I made a deal: if I taught him how to play shortstop again, he'd teach me how to hit."

I laughed.

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Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Astros at Arlington, the boot battle

« on: June 22, 2007, 08:49:36 pm »

Woody simply does not have his location today. Almost painful to watch him repeatedly go 2-0 on hitters.

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Talk Zone / Re: Fire Joe Morgan

« on: June 15, 2007, 09:10:23 pm »

One of my favorite sites, and this post in discussion was gold.



Jon (Phoenix, AZ): Which Pitcher would you rather have this year? Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson?

Joe's Brain: That's a very good question. Maybe I could cop out a little bit by saying it depends on the team I'm on.

Joe Morgan: That's a very good question. I could cop out a little bit by saying it depends on the team I'm on.

Joe's Brain: Dude, I was just thinking! You typed that in and sent it!

Joe's Fingers: Sorry, man.

Joe' Brain: Oh boy. Backpeddle. Backpeddle.

That's one of those almost coin-flip situations. The Yankees needed Roger Clemens more than they would need Randy Johnson.

Joe's Brain: Should I justify that somehow? No. I don't know how. Just plow forward.

Arizona needs Johnson more than they need Clemens.

Joe's Brain: Don't justify that either. Just keep going.

If you're asking which will win the most games from this point on, I would say Johnson has an easier chore than Clemens because he's in the NL, where it's easier to pitch. You can't go wrong picking either one.

Joe's Brain: Whew. Totally pulled that off. Definitely got away with that. Mental note: when someone asks you whether one person is better than the other, just say they're both good. Works every time. I mean, there's no way to actually tell who's better. There's no machine that has like everyone's statistics all compiled and everything.

Joe's Computer: You've got mail!

Joe's Brain: Shut up, you stupid toaster!

52

Talk Zone / Re: Its a crying shame

« on: June 12, 2007, 12:40:27 pm »

Zambrano needs to be monitored very closely. With his mechanics, the length he goes into games should be kept far lower than it is. As it is, he's throwing near 120 pitches/start this year. You'd think they'd have learned their lesson with Wood, who was a mechanics nightmare and threw 110 pitches/start in 2003 and 111 pitches/start in 2004 before breaking down and never being the same.

But hey, I won't condemn extremely poor management by a division rival.

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Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Astros vs Faded Hosiery

« on: June 09, 2007, 05:48:07 pm »

Loretta is a consummate professional, always calmly getting the job done.

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Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Astros vs Faded Hosiery

« on: June 09, 2007, 04:22:52 pm »

Berkman's had some nasty pitches thrown to him lately for called strike 3s.

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Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Astros vs Faded Hosiery

« on: June 09, 2007, 04:10:11 pm »

Jennings' stuff has looked pretty good today. However, the high number of long fly balls (and broadcasters keep saying the wind is blowing IN) is worrisome.

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Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Astros vs Faded Hosiery

« on: June 09, 2007, 03:58:39 pm »

Aggression on the basebaths not exactly paying off today.

57

Talk Zone / Re: In defense of Morgan Ensberg... no, seriously, don't laugh!

« on: June 01, 2007, 02:41:05 am »

Ensberg at the top of the lineup has been a total disaster. Just checking his splits-- 63 AB in the 2hole with a .159 AVG and .243 OBP. He's been most effective this year in the 6-hole, though only 14 AB, hitting .429/.471/.714. The most disappointing thing is that his power this year has disappeared (.395 SLG). Hopefully, he's gotten the point that he can't be a top of the order type and will start swinging more for power, but I fear his power's on a pretty irreversible decline at this point.

That being said, I still like his attitude. As discussed in other places, he's seemed willing to work harder to change his approach than other struggling types like Burke. Then again, Mo's not been demoted.

58

Talk Zone / Re: Lineup

« on: May 27, 2007, 11:06:41 pm »

I love Alkie's lineup. It might not make all that much of a difference (both with the way hitting has been going and the number of runs surrendered by the staff), but I love it nonetheless.

59

Talk Zone / Re: Line Up

« on: May 23, 2007, 01:12:38 pm »

This year is the first year I've had serious doubts about Purp as a lasting GM... the team simply is not that good. Unlike the last few years, where "falling into place" was Purp's legitimate option, this team has neither the pitching nor the offense to make serious noise.

Too many subpar players getting playing time. Lane and Burke simply aren't panning out, and despite myself being the biggest Ensberg booster around, he hasn't cut it this year, and Lamb isn't the answer there.

And frankly, the stros have a lot of tradeable assets. Lidge, for obvious reasons... packaged with some combination of Lane/Burke/MoBerg might be able to bring some real talent.

60

Talk Zone / Re: Pence

« on: May 20, 2007, 10:05:28 am »

And in other hype-up-PENCE news, we have John Donovan of SI:

"Who needs the Rocket when you have Hunter Pence?"

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/john_donovan/05/17/astros.pence/index.html

Not that I'm shedding tears about "losing" ol' DQ, but quite a statement.

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Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Snakes v Astros 5/11/2007

« on: May 11, 2007, 07:25:09 pm »

PENCE!!! with a bad break on the RBI double... not sure if it was catchable anyway, or if Byrnes would have scored if a good route was taken.

62

Talk Zone / "Pitchers you'd pay to see"

« on: May 10, 2007, 08:27:25 pm »

Jayson Stark, over at ESPN, has an article up on the pitchers in baseball you'd pay to watch. Horrible, heavily AL-biased, and of course DQ makes the list. But surprise, our boy Roy squeaks in at #5.

"We didn't expect Oswalt to make this list, because it seems as though this guy never makes any lists of the best anythings in baseball."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2865873&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab3pos1

At least he gets (some?) appreciation, even though IMO he's gotta be in the top 3 pitchers in all of baseball. And putting Matsuzaka and Felix on the list? Come on.

The rest of the column is all Clemens-related.

63

Talk Zone / Re: the Reds should be good

« on: May 10, 2007, 12:05:15 pm »

Thought I'd check ESPN's park factors for MMPUS' reputation as a hitter's park... the furthest back they go is 2001, when MMPUS was the most pitcher-friendly park in the majors. The most hitter-friendly they've been is the ninth-most hitter friendly park. This year, they're shaping up on the pitcher-friendly side, at 3rd-friendliest.

Obviously, the factors vary wildly depending on both who's pitching and who's hitting, but MMPUS' average is around the middle, or even slightly pitcher-friendly. Analysts just look at the Crawfords and say "OH! Hitter friendly!"

Anyway, thought it was interesting to look at where MMPUS has ranked.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

64

Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Dickities @ Astros - 5/3/07

« on: May 03, 2007, 08:17:44 pm »

I just started watching in the fifth... has Wandy been doing as good as this half-inning has been?

65

Talk Zone / Re: Prior out for the year

« on: April 26, 2007, 12:24:06 pm »

The Cubbies are absolutely hilarious to me. Every year, anything said about them is prefaced with "if Prior and Wood can stay healthy, then..." And every year, Prior and Wood get injured.

How's that $300 mil treating you?

66

Talk Zone / Re: Celebrate?

« on: April 21, 2007, 09:57:25 am »

I was gonna post about this, because I saw the same picture in the recap... it seems to me that since the 'stros have started putting together some wins this year, they've been having a lot of fun. I think Lee's made a great addition to the clubhouse, in terms of chemistry and morale.

67

Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Stros@Scrubs - 4/9

« on: April 09, 2007, 03:43:43 pm »

I haven't had a bigger yell of disbelief in a long time.

AE's offense has been great so far this year.

68

Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Coards at Astros - Jeff Bagwell Appreciation Night

« on: April 06, 2007, 08:45:31 pm »

Anyone else having trouble with an MLB TV feed? Mine's just showing black right now, no matter what I do (and was acting fine awhile ago).

69

Game Zone 2007 Archive / Re: Coards at Astros - Jeff Bagwell Appreciation Night

« on: April 06, 2007, 07:34:12 pm »

As someone who is a big time Wandy skeptic, I can say that he's looking pretty good tonight (with the exception of that Rolen big fly).

70

Talk Zone / SI's 2007 Astros preview

« on: March 21, 2007, 04:28:47 pm »

 the link

I'll leave the analysis and the outrage to the good guys.

71

Talk Zone / Re: Good natured article

« on: February 22, 2007, 04:48:57 pm »

The Donovan article on Clemens just came off (to me, anyway) as a mainstream news reporter bashing the Astros' attitude towards Clem in order to 'encourage' him to look to the Yanks or Sox to play.

Though the stuff on Burke and the battle in RF was good.

72

Talk Zone / Re: I have a confession

« on: December 15, 2006, 03:17:04 am »

I forgot that I'm not nearly eloquent enough to really give a good opinion on the topic, so I hope this is helpful.

From Fire Joe Morgan, noted SABR-humor site:

"Moneyball is a very good book by Michael Lewis, which chronicles the ways in which Oakland A?s General Manager Billy Beane tries to keep his team competitive with a small payroll. The clunky and incorrect understanding of the Moneyball philosophy is that it simply involves getting players to walk a lot and hit home runs. In reality, what Moneyball deals with is the search for inefficiencies in the complex world of evaluating baseball players. At the time the book was written, Billy Beane and his crew had determined that there were players who weren?t fast runners, maybe, or were fat, or short, or otherwise had some kind of superficial thing ?wrong? with them that made other GMs dismiss them as not good baseball players. But these players were actually good at baseball, and because other people had undervalued their skills (skills like walking a lot, for example) Beane was able to draft them or trade for them and not pay them a lot of money, because no one else wanted them.

These days, enough people have caught on to the idea that on-base percentage is important that such players are not undervalued anymore, and so GMs like Beane, who have to put a team together with a $50 million payroll instead of, say, the Yankees? $200 million payroll, are looking elsewhere for value."

73

Talk Zone / Re: I have a confession

« on: December 15, 2006, 03:09:28 am »

As someone who really started to take a liking to baseball statistical analysis because of Moneyball, I'll try to provide a different perspective.

I think Moneyball is portrayed incorrectly by many in the media (and probably those who call themselves Moneyball-disciples too). The book is basically about finding flaws in the market where a particular trait of a baseball player is underrated, and thus the Oakland A's have been able to sign for less than their own perceived market value.

The stat that the book focuses on is OBP, one of the stats that sabermatricians think is injustly underrated. This may be where statheads' love of the book stems from.

Personally, I do think certain stats are indeed overrated and some underrated, but that's a different story...

74

Talk Zone / Re: BP - low opinion of the Astros:

« on: December 04, 2006, 07:44:01 pm »

Wow...

75

Talk Zone / Re: footer: dunn and his drool

« on: October 30, 2006, 03:52:54 am »

Stubby, I'd recommend against endorsing Ensberg. This board is clearly against him, despite the fact that he's really good at not making outs, a main component of baseball.

Also I find the similarities between Dunn and Ensberg striking. Low BA causes them to be underrated, but both with great plate discipline and good at getting on base. The Reds have it right, using Dunn in the 2-hole. I wish the Astros had the same kind of wisdom.

76

Talk Zone / Re: I guess for a few months..........

« on: October 30, 2006, 03:49:24 am »

Well, I have to say I'm ECSTATIC that the NL team won. Bill Simmons (ESPN.COM) had been calling the NL Quadruple-A for the past six months, and I'm just glad that he and the rest of the sportswriters got it shoved in their faces.

Yes, the NL was bad. But not as bad as everyone thought.

Although I've heard quite enough about David Eckstein and his sub-10 VORP.

77

Talk Zone / Re: 3B Question

« on: October 20, 2006, 12:59:54 pm »

Sure, Ensberg wasn't the player that the Astros were expecting when they signed him to an extension (that is, the 30+HR 100+ RBI guy), but that doesn't mean he's not a valuable baseball player, someone who wouldn't be expected to drive in runs, but someone who is expected to get on base in front of run producers (which he has done, to the point of being top-20 in MLB).

I suppose I'm just astounded by the willingness to ditch Ensberg considering just how often he walks, a great asset if he would be hitting in the top of the lineup as opposed to the middle. He walked more than Berkman last year, and that was in about 2/3 of the ABs that Berkman had. If Ensberg was starting in the lineup the whole year, he might have lead MLB in walks (he had 101, the leader Abreu had 124).

It's a valid question whether or not he can keep up the pace when he's not a feared middle-of-the-order hitter and batting as someone who is actually expected to get on base.  But considering he can be had for $3-5 million/yr, when Huff would probably be $6-8/yr, I think it's a good investment, spend the extra cash trying to lure Lee or an equivalent-caliber FA.

78

Talk Zone / Re: 3B Question

« on: October 20, 2006, 12:22:11 pm »

I realize all the flaws that have been exposed this year with Mo, but I'm still not sold on the idea that the stros should let him loose. He's an on-base machine who was fighting through injury this year (whether you believe the fact that his injury was actually physical or the injury was brain-related) and perhaps I'm being optimistic, but an offseason might allow him to fix some of that.

I also think he can be signed for cheap, due to the .235 batting average (a poor and overused metric for measuring offensive ability). And far cheaper than Huff, who was already making nearly double Ensberg's salary this year. I don't think that all those walks would look as bad if there were no one on base in front of him.

79

Talk Zone / 3B Question

« on: October 20, 2006, 03:34:12 am »

Hey, I've been visiting this board on and off for the past season, and for some reason being up late felt a compulsion to post on a subject I find interesting.

I may be wrong, but it seems to me most people think that it would be worth it to try to re-sign Huff. I was never impressed with him at all, and though he had a rough year, I'm prone to being a lot more pro-Ensberg. And though Mo often looked lost at the plate, and frustratingly changed batting stances what seemed like daily, I think his numbers justify him being the Astros' long-term 3b.

(I don't really know how to code stats, but I'll do my best):

Ensberg 2006
EQA: .291              
OBP: .396              
SLG: .463              
FRAR: 22                
WARP-3: 6.2            

Astros-Huff 2006
EQA: .274
OBP: .341
SLG: .478
FRAR: 1
WARP-3: 1.6

By most standards of offensive measurement, even in Ensberg's horrendous year, he performed better than Huff. I also think Huff would be overvalued by the market in any attempt to sign him to a free agent contract. I don't know what Ensberg's contract status is, but I'd be willing to bet that he's vastly undervalued by the market at the moment due to the perception he had an awful year (so if he is signed for next year, maybe lock him up for another 2 or 3).

Don't get me wrong, Ensberg can't be seen as a consistent run-producing big bat in the middle of the lineup. But his patience at the plate and great OBP, combined with the power that he does have, would make him an ideal 2-hole hitter. I still see a big need for protection after Berkman, but I think Ensberg should get the preference over Huff by the organization.