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General Discussion => Archive => Game Zone 2012 Archive => Topic started by: EasTexAstro on June 07, 2012, 07:08:26 pm
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I'll try to comment
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I don't believe it, but I just saw Happ fool a batter for strike three.
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You beat me by a hair. We'll use your thread. Here are the lineups:
SSRafael Furcal
RFCarlos Beltran
LFMatt Holliday
1BAllen Craig
3BDavid Freese
CYadier Molina
2BTyler Greene
CFShane Robinson
PLance Lynn
CF Jordan Schafer
2B Jose Altuve
SS Jed Lowrie
LF Fernando Martinez
1B Brett Wallace
3B Chris Johnson
RF Brian Bogusevic
C Chris Snyder
P J.A. Happ
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Happ gets the first 3. Give me a few to get all this together
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You beat me by a hair. We'll use your thread. Here are the lineups:
SSRafael Furcal
RFCarlos Beltran
LFMatt Holliday
1BAllen Craig
3BDavid Freese
CYadier Molina
2BTyler Greene
CFShane Robinson
PLance Lynn
CF Jordan Schafer
2B Jose Altuve
SS Jed Lowrie
LF Fernando Martinez
1B Brett Wallace
3B Chris Johnson
RF Brian Bogusevic
C Chris Snyder
P J.A. Happ
Thanks
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Lynn has a funky slot and wrist snap but it's effective.
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Schreefer Ks
1 out, btm 1st
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Apparently we were so hard on Jaime Garcia that he wound up on the DL.
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After JD and Brownie talks about how rarely Altuve swings and misses, Altuve swings and misses twice for K 2
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Lowrie!
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Lowrie finds the boxes.
1-0 Astros
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Lynn has a funky slot and wrist snap but it's effective.
You're right. I don't understand how he gets so much speed on the pitch because he short-arms it. He must be very strong.
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After JD and Brownie talks about how rarely Altuve swings and misses, Altuve swings and misses twice for K 2
They do that a lot. It gets annoying.
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Grounder to ss makes it 3 down.
end of 1st, 1-0 Astros
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You're right. I don't understand how he gets so much speed on the pitch because he short-arms it. He must be very strong.
After my shoulder was ripped apart, I short armed my throws for better speed than I have ever had before. IMO, it leads to ruining your arm very quickly. Not a good form.
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Happ goes full count to Craig and gets the K
1 down in the top 2nd
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Happ gets another K for out #2
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Who IS this JA Happ guy?
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Molina flies to LF for out 3.
after 1 and a half, Astros up with a 1-0 lead.
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Who IS this JA Happ guy?
anti-mr. happy
shhhh
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anti-mr. happy
shhhh
I'm really his biggest fan when he's throwing like he has so far this season for the most part.
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Some mighty fine pitching there J.A.
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Hell yeah. Get your pitch, Wallace.
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Wallace with a
triple] double
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That was some pretty impressive late action on the 1-2 pitch to Wallace. Impressive. Just as impressive was Wallace's turn on an inside pitch.
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Some mighty fine pitching there J.A.
Hush.
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Wallace is probably making them rethink hard and inside
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Nuts. Off to work again, heavy schedule this week but Fuck The Jakes, it's 2-0!
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CJ gets the RBI double to RF
2-0 Astros
0 outs. BTM 2nd
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CJ has been impressive taking pitches and in going with the pitch. Really good ABs.
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Lynn has some nice pitches
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Bogey Ks swinging. 1 out
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Carlos Correa is in the booth with Milo.
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Snyder takes the off speed to LF.
firs tand third, 1 out, btm 2nd, 2-0 Astros
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CJ has been impressive taking pitches and in going with the pitch. Really good ABs.
With the power he's got, Johnson becoming even just a bit more selective would make him much more of a threat.
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Carlos Correa is in the booth with Milo.
What an incredible day for a 17-year-old kid.
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Happ fouls the squeeze play foul for a K
out 2
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Schafer takes a five pitch walk (should have been 4 pitch, IMO) to load the bases for Altuve
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Milo is pretty much asking him if he's met every Latin ballplayer he can think of. It's like a baseball Joe Franklin show.
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What an incredible day for a 17-year-old kid.
He is extremely well poised for a 17 year old.
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Altuve Ks with the bases loaded.
2-0 Astros after 2
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That AB by Altuve shows me that he is not quite there yet. He swung at some pitches that he couldn't hit and took a pitch that he could. He can get even better than he is at the plate.
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He is extremely well poised for a 17 year old.
+1
What a great kid from a great family and great community
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I'm glad I started Dickey, because my hitters are Amber Waves tonight.
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That AB by Altuve shows me that he is not quite there yet. He swung at some pitches that he couldn't hit and took a pitch that he could. He can get even better than he is at the plate.
I agree to a point. That strike he took was high in the zone for him. He might not have been able to do much with it.
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Milo is pretty much asking him if he's met every Latin ballplayer he can think of. It's like a baseball Joe Franklin show.
DoRay tried to ask a couple of baseball type questions but Milo just wants to talk about Puerto Rican ball players.
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Happ gives up a single as I am talking to Mrs ETA
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So here we fucking go again...a walk, a single and two doubles yields 1 fucking run. Pitiful.
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So here we fucking go again...a walk, a single and two doubles yields 1 fucking run. Pitiful.
This is getting old.
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I agree to a point. That strike he took was high in the zone for him. He might not have been able to do much with it.
I thought that it was a strike.
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Come on, Happ. Bear down.
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Robinson batting. Happ takes him to 2-2...couple of fouls, cat crawls on the computer...couple of tosses to 1st....a few fouls...goes to 3-2 on a check swing....walk
runners at 1st and 2nd wih no outs for Lynn
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I thought that it was a strike.
Not arguing the strike, just saying it was high in the zone for him to handle unless he was looking for it. A popup wouldn't have been better.
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So the Cards equal that one run with a routine single and a bunt. That's the difference between good teams and bad teams.
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Sac bunt and bunt hit gives the cards a run and runners at 1st and 3rd with one out
2-1 Astros
1 out, top of 3rd
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And just like that. Tie game.
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Correction...the Cards get TWO runs on a single and a bunt.
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Sac fly to RF gets a tie game.
2-2, top of 3rd, runner at first, 2 out
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Correction...the Cards get TWO runs on a single and a bunt.
Right. Two total bases hitting yields 2 runs. For us, 5 total bases hitting yields 1 run.
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Three or four more extra base hits for the Astros and they might be able to push the go ahead run across.
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Walk to Holliday...runners at 1st and 2nd
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Happ nibbling
Snyder should make a visit
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Broken bat fly for a single
3-2 Cards
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Come on, Happ. He can't seem to pitch from the stretch.
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Dink, dink, dink, beatyourass.
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..and a K on Freeze.
Going to the bottom of 3rd, 3-2 not the astros
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Picked wrong again...Peavy's losing, Price is winning.
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Sorry...gotta leave
still 3-2 cards after 3
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Apparently, what's important to the Astro hitters is that they take the belt high fastballs and swing at the ones over their head and the curveballs that bounce. I can hear Ted Williams's head roll over in his freezer.
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Apparently, what's important to the Astro hitters is that they take the belt high fastballs and swing at the ones over their head and the curveballs that bounce. I can hear Ted Williams's head roll over in his freezer.
How this team came within hailing distance of .500 in May is one of the world's great mysteries.
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How this team came within hailing distance of .500 in May is one of the world's great mysteries.
The team is 6-19 on the road and is going out on a nine game trip.
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Happ bears down with no further damage.
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How this team came within hailing distance of .500 in May is one of the world's great mysteries.
2011 Pirates are the template.
Everybody needs to slow down and remember what is going on - this was a 56 win team last year, and it's a 65-70 win team this year. Just having the confidence to feel they can stay in a game or come back is a giant leap from last season. They are not good. It's going to be a while. If you're going to get any appreciation from this team, it's going to be small things and big-picture stuff, not some overnight erasure of how far down they've fallen.
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And when I say 'everybody,' I mean the goddamn voices in my head that refuse to shut the hell up.
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2011 Pirates are the template.
Everybody needs to slow down and remember what is going on - this was a 56 win team last year, and it's a 65-70 win team this year. Just having the confidence to feel they can stay in a game or come back is a giant leap from last season. They are not good. It's going to be a while. If you're going to get any appreciation from this team, it's going to be small things and big-picture stuff, not some overnight erasure of how far down they've fallen.
I agree. Must maintain proper perspective.
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I agree. Must maintain proper perspective.
That doesn't make 6-19 look any better though. Ouch.
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2011 Pirates are the template.
Everybody needs to slow down and remember what is going on - this was a 56 win team last year, and it's a 65-70 win team this year. Just having the confidence to feel they can stay in a game or come back is a giant leap from last season. They are not good. It's going to be a while. If you're going to get any appreciation from this team, it's going to be small things and big-picture stuff, not some overnight erasure of how far down they've fallen.
I'm sure my this isn't shared by many, but they aren't that different than last year, IMO. They continue to do a lot of little shit wrong, and find ways to lose. Maybe it is still youth, maybe not, but it gets tiresome sometimes. The main improvement and bright spot this year is the pitching overall, mainly a better pen.
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I'm sure my this isn't shared by many, but they aren't that different than last year, IMO. They continue to do a lot of little shit wrong, and find ways to lose. Maybe it is still youth, maybe not, but it gets tiresome sometimes. The main improvement and bright spot this year is the pitching overall, mainly a better pen.
You're not altogether wrong. In my opinion, I see 65 wins when it is all said and done.
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I'm sure my this isn't shared by many, but they aren't that different than last year, IMO. They continue to do a lot of little shit wrong, and find ways to lose. Maybe it is still youth, maybe not, but it gets tiresome sometimes. The main improvement and bright spot this year is the pitching overall, mainly a better pen.
They're getting more out of the 2B/SS, less from the OF, I think. Offense overall is up, starters are rockier. They have a better attitude.
They're going to do a lot of little shit wrong, they're the youngest team in baseball.
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I'll have to check Happ's stats, but it sure appears that he labors with men on base and pitching from the stretch.
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I'll have to check Happ's stats, but it sure appears that he labors with men on base and pitching from the stretch.
Which naturally leads me to the line of, "Do they all, like the way batters hit better with the bases loaded?" I have no idea.
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Which naturally leads me to the line of, "Do they all, like the way batters hit better with the bases loaded?" I have no idea.
But I mean he seems to change his delivery when he comes from the stretch.
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But I mean he seems to change his delivery when he comes from the stretch.
Oh, I don't doubt that he's worse, for whatever reason. Now I'm wondering what the normal amount of worse is, to compare him to.
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My point is simply that the team is so bad it is remarkable that they've won as many games as they have. They have very few players that would play on a decent team. Guys that no one else wants look like superstars relative to the rest of the roster. And they do all sorts of little stuff wrong - the bad defense in the outfield, Altuve's continual WTF fielding, can't bunt, can't throw anyone out. I was astounded they got that runner out in the brief rundown between third and home the other day. The fact that they have better than 20 wins a third of the way through the season really surprises me.
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I'll have to check Happ's stats, but it sure appears that he labors with men on base and pitching from the stretch.
That's a good observation. It may not be mechanical though, it might just be that he tends to lose confidence under pressure.
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That's a good observation. It may not be mechanical though, it might just be that he tends to lose confidence under pressure.
He definitely doesn't have the same command when there are men on base, whatever the reason.
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My point is simply that the team is so bad it is remarkable that they've won as many games as they have. They have very few players that would play on a decent team. Guys that no one else wants look like superstars relative to the rest of the roster. And they do all sorts of little stuff wrong - the bad defense in the outfield, Altuve's continual WTF fielding, can't bunt, can't throw anyone out. I was astounded they got that runner out in the brief rundown between third and home the other day. The fact that they have better than 20 wins a third of the way through the season really surprises me.
The counter to that is that no matter how bad you are, it's really, really hard to lose 100 games. A lot has to fall against you. Bad teams can linger in that 65-72 win area for a long time.
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My point is simply that the team is so bad it is remarkable that they've won as many games as they have. They have very few players that would play on a decent team. Guys that no one else wants look like superstars relative to the rest of the roster. And they do all sorts of little stuff wrong - the bad defense in the outfield, Altuve's continual WTF fielding, can't bunt, can't throw anyone out. I was astounded they got that runner out in the brief rundown between third and home the other day. The fact that they have better than 20 wins a third of the way through the season really surprises me.
I don't agree that their lineup sucks as much as you are saying. I do however think the whole is way less than the sum of the parts.
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I think I'm just taking the long way to say that it's not so much the record, it's whether or not they're learning anything. This year.
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Oh, I don't doubt that he's worse, for whatever reason. Now I'm wondering what the normal amount of worse is, to compare him to.
MOST PITCHERS ARE A LITTLE WORSE, BUT I suspect that Happ is much worse.
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MOST PITCHERS ARE A LITTLE WORSE, BUT I suspect that Happ is much worse.
I just checked Happ's stats. When the bases are empty, his ERA is 1.65. When there's a runner on 1B, it jumps to 6.43. That is a huge difference.
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I don't agree that their lineup sucks as much as you are saying. I do however think the whole is way less than the sum of the parts.
I'm not going to go Noe on you and argue this to the death but who would play for any average major league team? Lowrie, maybe; Altuve, maybe; Carlos, maybe. This team has shockingly little major league talent among position players. AND, as you say, the whole is less than the sum of the parts.
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Nice play by Wallace on Beltran.
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I just checked Happ's stats. When the bases are empty, his ERA is 1.65. When there's a runner on 1B, it jumps to 6.43. That is a huge difference.
It is, and I don't doubt your conclusion, but I'd like to know how far off the norm he is for those situations. Stats in a vacuum leave me wanting more.
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I'm not going to go Noe on you and argue this to the death but who would play for any average major league team? Lowrie, maybe; Altuve, maybe; Carlos, maybe. This team has shockingly little major league talent among position players. AND, as you say, the whole is less than the sum of the parts.
This is true. That's how far down they've fallen. I want to watch them get back up.
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It is, and I don't doubt your conclusion, but I'd like to know how far off the norm he is for those situations. Stats in a vacuum leave me wanting more.
I'll take a look at Wandy..
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I'll take a look at Wandy..
When I get home I'll look for league averages and see if I can find something historical.
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I'm not going to go Noe on you and argue this to the death but who would play for any average major league team? Lowrie, maybe; Altuve, maybe; Carlos, maybe. This team has shockingly little major league talent among position players. AND, as you say, the whole is less than the sum of the parts.
Altuve, Lowrie, Schaefer, Lee and Castro would all start for the Nationals.
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I'm not going to go Noe on you and argue this to the death but who would play for any average major league team? Lowrie, maybe; Altuve, maybe; Carlos, maybe. This team has shockingly little major league talent among position players. AND, as you say, the whole is less than the sum of the parts.
Average lineups? I've seen the Pirates lineup, and the Mets, and the Dodgers. Maybe the Nationals. You don't have to have individually great talent to play as an average club. I really can't single out any of the parts and say "there's a major liability.".
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I'll take a look at Wandy..
Wandy has an ERA of 1.35 with noone on and an ERA of 1.33 with a runner on 1B.
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I'm not going to go Noe on you and argue this to the death but who would play for any average major league team? Lowrie, maybe; Altuve, maybe; Carlos, maybe. This team has shockingly little major league talent among position players. AND, as you say, the whole is less than the sum of the parts.
Lowrie is a good starter on most teams. Past that, .
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Was Mills expecting Carpenter to go a lot longer? The abysmal trouble he had with the eight and nine hitters could have been a clue.
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Cruz stepped it up in a tough spot.
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Average lineups? I've seen the Pirates lineup, and the Mets, and the Dodgers. Maybe the Nationals. You don't have to have individually great talent to play as an average club. I really can't single out any of the parts and say "there's a major liability.".
You're kidding, right? Bogusevic is subpar talent. The jury is still out on Schreefer and JD Martinez. CJ is playing much better this season, but he's not far removed from that category if he's out of it.
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I just checked Happ's stats. When the bases are empty, his ERA is 1.65. When there's a runner on 1B, it jumps to 6.43. That is a huge difference.
2012 stats
Bases Empty:
Happ: .293 .365 .514
Wandy: .297 .342 .488
Men on:
Happ: .254 .301 .412
Wandy: .211 .248 .398
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You're kidding, right? Bogusevic is subpar talent. The jury is still out on Schreefer and JD Martinez. CJ is playing much better this season, but he's not far removed from that category if he's out of it.
No, I'm not kidding. We are talking average lineups. Shafer is far from a liability as a CF. Martinez has had a lot of nice ABs for the club. Maybe less than average overall, but not a liability by any stretch. Bogey maybe, but I like his defense. He is not crap by any means.
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Wandy has an ERA of 1.35 with noone on and an ERA of 1.33 with a runner on 1B.
Bud's bases empty ERA is 0.75. His ERA with a runner on 1B is 4.50, which is high too.
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Bud's bases empty ERA is 0.75. His ERA with a runner on 1B is 4.50, which is high too.
How does one have an ERA for bases empty, or a runner on first?
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...ghan...paging Arky Vaughan...
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How does one have an ERA for bases empty, or a runner on first?
For those splendid solo home runs.
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Bud's bases empty ERA is 0.75. His ERA with a runner on 1B is 4.50, which is high too.
This begs for some real investigation. What are the questions?
How bad, relatively, is Happ's pitching with men on?
Is there a pattern?
What is the league normal ERA or other measurement for expected outcomes in situations?
How does Happ differ from those?
Do such differences matter, or are they too small or outweighed by something else?
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Wandy has an ERA of 1.35 with noone on and an ERA of 1.33 with a runner on 1B.
Are these real stats? Isn't the first one just HR/9IP? And how do pitching changes affect the second stat? (I know Wandy is a starter, but the math should generalize, no?)
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Are these real stats? Isn't the first one just HR/9IP? And how do pitching changes affect the second stat? (I know Wandy is a starter, but the math should generalize, no?)
Yes. Courtesy of mlb.com.
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Are these real stats? Isn't the first one just HR/9IP?
Yeah, that must be what it is. Seems like a bogus stat. The slash line posted by Lefty makes more sense as a metric, but it doesn't support the conclusion that pitchers (at least those pitchers) perform way worse with runners on.
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The team is 5th in the league in runs, and you guys are bitching about how bad the lineup is?
The team gives up 12 runs tonight, and you guys are bitching about how bad the lineup is??
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Yeah, that must be what it is. Seems like a bogus stat. The slash line posted by Lefty makes more sense as a metric, but it doesn't support the conclusion that pitchers perform way worse with runners on.
I disagree. Why are some pitchers far better with runners on base than others? It has meaning. It may be skewed or limited, but to say that it doesn't support the conclusion that some pitchers perform "way worse with runners on" is nonsense.
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The team is 5th in the league in runs, and you guys are bitching about how bad the lineup is?
The team gives up 12 runs tonight, and you guys are bitching about how bad the lineup is??
Stop it. We have to have something to bitch about.
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No, I'm not kidding. We are talking average lineups. Shafer is far from a liability as a CF. Martinez has had a lot of nice ABs for the club. Maybe less than average overall, but not a liability by any stretch. Bogey maybe, but I like his defense. He is not crap by any means.
I think we're seeing the results of too many of these guys being rushed. Bogey didn't get near enough ABs after giving up pitching. Carpenter hasn't been pitching that long. JD, Altuve and Castro went through the bushes pretty quick.
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Correa is thinking he should have signed for more money.
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The team is 5th in the league in runs, and you guys are bitching about how bad the lineup is?
The team gives up 12 runs tonight, and you guys are bitching about how bad the lineup is??
I don't think anyone's bitching and besides we started this discussion when the score was a good bit cozier.
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I disagree. Why are some pitchers far better with runners on base than others? It has meaning. It may be skewed or limited, but to say that it doesn't support the conclusion that some pitchers perform "way worse with runners on" is nonsense.
After VB's post, I realized what they mean, or what I think they mean at least. ERA with no one on is described as "how many home runs you give up with no one on base per 27 times you record an out with no one on." ERA with a runner on first is "how many runs you give up on ABs with a runner on first per 27 times you record an out with a runner on first." Of course you are going to give up more runs with a runner on first when compared with no one on. It will likely get worse for ERAs with runners on second and third. Seems like the slash line makes more sense.
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And the pitchers with a low ERA with a runner on first probably are great ground ball pitchers, inducing the force plays.
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And the pitchers with a low ERA with a runner on first probably are great ground ball pitchers, inducing the force plays.
ERA cannot be segregated out by situation ... you can do the math, but there is no sense in it. ERA has to do with the way pitchers handle innings, not situations. AVG or SLG or something in various situations *might* make sense, but there are a lot of variables not accounted for (thus requiring a very large sample size to guarantee randomness). If a guy faces 5-8 batters with a runner in third, it makes a lot of difference who those batters were (for instance) ... never mind the fact that there is seldom a large enough sample size in that kind of situation to generate valid stats even without batter variability. It is all nonsense. Watch the game!!
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ERA cannot be segregated out by situation ... you can do the math, but there is no sense in it. ERA has to do with the way pitchers handle innings, not situations. AVG or SLG or something in various situations *might* make sense, but there are a lot of variables not accounted for (thus requiring a very large sample size to guarantee randomness). If a guy faces 5-8 batters with a runner in third, it makes a lot of difference who those batters were (for instance) ... never mind the fact that there is seldom a large enough sample size in that kind of situation to generate valid stats even without batter variability. It is all nonsense. Watch the game!!
VB: Of course you have to watch the game. You've taken a ball-peen hammer to a fine Swiss watch and gilded the lily on your point. The stat is somewhat deceiving, but I was merely using it to bolster my hunch (after having watched a lot of Happ's outings) that Happ is much worse out of the stretch than he is with no one on base.
Speaking from experience (and too much of it with traffic on the paths), it is harder to concentrate and make pitches out of the stretch, which is why pitchers shouldn't do that until they have to do so, i.e., when someone is on 1B or 2B. You're splitting concentration between the baserunner and the hitter. I believe that pitching from the stretch can alter your mechanics slightly and cost you a critical few inches on a pitch that can make all the difference in the world. Why the practice is today to have relievers, who, unlike the old days, often come into games with nobody on base to pitch from the stretch is beyond dumb in my opinion--but it is something being taught in little league today. If you got an advantage from pitching out of the stretch, even starting pitchers would do so all of the time. I sure as hell would have. I needed every inch I could muster, and then some. Okay. Old crotchety fucker off of his soap box.
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VB: Of course you have to watch the game. You've taken a ball-peen hammer to a fine Swiss watch and gilded the lily on your point. The stat is somewhat deceiving, but I was merely using it to bolster my hunch (after having watched a lot of Happ's outings) that Happ is much worse out of the stretch than he is with no one on base.
Speaking from experience (and too much of it with traffic on the paths), it is harder to concentrate and make pitches out of the stretch, which is why pitchers shouldn't do that until they have to do so, i.e., when someone is on 1B or 2B. You're splitting concentration between the baserunner and the hitter. I believe that pitching from the stretch can alter your mechanics slightly and cost you a critical few inches on a pitch that can make all the difference in the world. Why the practice is today to have relievers, who, unlike the old days, often come into games with nobody on base to pitch from the stretch is beyond dumb in my opinion--but it is something being taught in little league today. If you got an advantage from pitching out of the stretch, even starting pitchers would do so all of the time. I sure as hell would have. I needed every inch I could muster, and then some. Okay. Old crotchety fucker off of his soap box.
All of that matches my notions, which I developed without any experience, so thanks. And as for the watch repair, I am quite handy with a ball-peen hammer. I waited around to see if anyone would take a more nuanced approach, but nobody did. I *do* believe there are ways to compare pitchers with respect to how badly they are affected by men on base; I just do not think ERA can be used at all in that respect.
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I waited around to see if anyone would take a more nuanced approach, but nobody did.
The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak. Maybe I'll get the time to look at it better, but this snowballed into something larger than a cursory look at B-R.
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The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak. Maybe I'll get the time to look at it better, but this snowballed into something larger than a cursory look at B-R.
Put it in your in-box, RB.