Author Topic: Aiken  (Read 100044 times)

juliogotay

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Aiken
« on: June 30, 2014, 09:13:29 pm »
I'm a little concerned about this Aiken deal. It looks to me like there are some lines to read between here. This article doesn't come out and say he failed his physical but it is all about what happens if draftees fail their physical. There are no quotes coming from Houston front office that make me feel better either.


http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/06/30/with-brady-aiken-unsigned-mlbs-medical-process-explained/#22102103=0&24048101=0

BizidyDizidy

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2014, 09:22:51 pm »
What a clusterfuck that would be
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2014, 11:17:24 pm »
Rosenthal speculated this without any proof today as well.
Goin' for a bus ride.

juliogotay

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2014, 09:56:07 am »
If there is something going on like this then all I can say is it didn't take long for the SI-jinx to kick in.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2014, 10:04:57 am »
Or the baseball gods refusing to reward a willingness to tank it.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2014, 10:23:57 am »
Rosenthal speculated this without any proof today as well.

It would certainly be a very fair question to pose to Luhnow directly. Ask him to dispel the physical failure rumor.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2014, 10:33:58 am »
It would certainly be a very fair question to pose to Luhnow directly. Ask him to dispel the physical failure rumor.

I think not addressing rumor is a good policy.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2014, 10:40:30 am »
It would certainly be a very fair question to pose to Luhnow directly. Ask him to dispel the physical failure rumor.
Honestly, I thought I read Luhnow basically dispelling it yesterday, saying they were working out the kinks and that is not unusual with these things.  Probably true.  Might also have to do with the other draftees and their negotiations, both Fisher and the high school arm.  The negotiations might be co-dependent, so to speak. 

However, the mere fact that reporters have thrown it out there is sort of troubling. 

subnuclear

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2014, 10:46:42 am »
However, the mere fact that reporters have thrown it out there is sort of troubling. 

They have to sell clicks, get talked about. Hopefully, it is just money though.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2014, 12:12:55 pm »
They have to sell clicks, get talked about. Hopefully, it is just money though.

I keep hoping it's haggling over incentives, like how much of his UCLA tuition the club will cover.  The realist in me struggles to see why that would take this long, though.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2014, 03:47:21 pm »
I think not addressing rumor is a good policy.

Then just ask him outright if Aiken failed his physical.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2014, 03:57:14 pm »
Then just ask him outright if Aiken failed his physical.

No comment. Next question.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2014, 03:58:57 pm »
No comment. Next question.

Fine. So he did fail. What are you going to do now?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2014, 04:12:07 pm »
Fine. So he did fail. What are you going to do now?

I hate to do this to you fellas because I know you have jobs to do but when we have the information we want you to know, we will give it to you.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2014, 04:51:23 pm »
Ok, you've confirmed that he failed. I appreciate your being candid on that. Will you disclose the details - why he failed - or would you rather encourage rampant and possibly damaging speculation?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #15 on: July 01, 2014, 04:57:47 pm »
Well, Mr....de Jesus Ortiz is it? Most reasonable folks will understand that just because there's no information does not immediately lead to the notion he failed a physical. I'll leave the unreasonable ones to read your speculation.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2014, 05:43:39 pm »
Well, Mr....de Jesus Ortiz is it? Most reasonable folks will understand that just because there's no information does not immediately lead to the notion he failed a physical. I'll leave the unreasonable ones to read your speculationpost in the chron.com comment section.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2014, 05:47:53 pm »
I've been trying to be nice but we know exactly what happened because we hacked into your computer again. I mean, strosrule is not the safest password.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #18 on: July 02, 2014, 12:36:47 am »
I've been trying to be nice but we know exactly what happened because we hacked into your computer again. I mean, strosrule is not the safest password.
c
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #19 on: July 02, 2014, 07:43:34 pm »
I've been trying to be nice but we know exactly what happened because we hacked into your computer again. I mean, strosrule is not the safest password.

They updated it to WorldChamps2017! for safe password rules.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #20 on: July 02, 2014, 07:48:45 pm »
They updated it to WorldChamps2017! for safe password rules.

I was figuring that RangersDrool! was the next choice after strosRule.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #21 on: July 02, 2014, 08:05:21 pm »
WorldChamps2017!:-D
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #22 on: July 02, 2014, 08:27:08 pm »
altuveallstar would be a good one
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #23 on: July 02, 2014, 10:18:55 pm »
altuveallstar would be a good one

If you're looking for one nobody will ever guess, you probably ought to go with carterallstar.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #24 on: July 02, 2014, 10:53:53 pm »
carter300hitter
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #25 on: July 03, 2014, 06:16:35 am »
carter300hitter

Now you're really getting unrealistic.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #26 on: July 03, 2014, 06:58:53 am »
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #27 on: July 03, 2014, 07:06:45 am »
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #28 on: July 07, 2014, 12:52:29 pm »
Heyman (I know, I know) via Twitter:

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 
No. 1 pick brady aiken is said to have an elbow ligament issue. astros look to discount deal. story coming on @CBSSports
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Navin R Johnson

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #29 on: July 07, 2014, 12:56:24 pm »
facepalm
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #30 on: July 07, 2014, 01:05:07 pm »
I love this team.

jbm

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #31 on: July 07, 2014, 01:08:09 pm »
Fuck, I doubt the "plan" anticipated two black swans in succession.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #32 on: July 07, 2014, 01:11:48 pm »
Fuck, I doubt the "plan" anticipated two black swans in succession.

And a serious ankle injury to the one that actually panned out.
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subnuclear

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #33 on: July 07, 2014, 01:15:41 pm »
Just a hypothetical, but if you knew Strasburg was going to need TJ surgery would you have still drafted him?

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #34 on: July 07, 2014, 01:16:26 pm »
I love this team.
Seems hard to pin this on the team. BA, mlb.com, and every other draft analysts I can think of ranked Aiken as the #1 prospect of the Draft. So it's not like they bucked consensus and got burned. They would've been criticized had they taken any other player.

Plus, as the article juliogotay linked at the start of this thread shows, players do not take pre-draft medical exams. They merely submit medical info. So it's not like the Astros' doctors screwed up. There were no "whispers" before the draft that he might not be 100% sound physically. So how can you fault them for the pick, when probably 27-29 of the other teams would've made the exact same pick given the opportunity?
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BizidyDizidy

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #35 on: July 07, 2014, 01:17:37 pm »
Don't NFL players take full medical exams? Surprised MLB does it this way.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #36 on: July 07, 2014, 01:19:24 pm »
Heyman:
The Astros are offering to do a deal for about $5 million now, according to sources, about $1.5 million less than the originally agreed-upon $6.5 million, sources say.
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Navin R Johnson

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #37 on: July 07, 2014, 01:20:28 pm »
So can't they lowball him, and if he decides to go to college, the Astros would get the #2 pick next year to go along with their other likely top 5 pick?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #38 on: July 07, 2014, 01:21:12 pm »
Also, CT scans/MRIs can be "interpreted." Is he actually hurt?

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #39 on: July 07, 2014, 01:32:27 pm »
Shouldn't be a big deal.  Won't we have the #1 pick again next year?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #40 on: July 07, 2014, 01:37:09 pm »
Just a hypothetical, but if you knew Strasburg was going to need TJ surgery would you have still drafted him?

It's a good question, but it is a bit different with Aiken in that he supposedly didn't stand out as much relative to his peers as Strasburg did, IIRC.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #41 on: July 07, 2014, 01:37:38 pm »
Shouldn't be a big deal.  Won't we have the #1 pick again next year?

Cubs are working hard to get there.
Goin' for a bus ride.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #42 on: July 07, 2014, 01:51:10 pm »
So can't they lowball him, and if he decides to go to college, the Astros would get the #2 pick next year to go along with their other likely top 5 pick?
They'd have to offer him at least 40% of slot value.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #43 on: July 07, 2014, 01:57:23 pm »
They'd have to offer him at least 40% of slot value.

If they really did offer him $5 mil then that's been covered.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #44 on: July 07, 2014, 02:05:53 pm »
Shouldn't be a big deal.  Won't we have the #1 pick again next year?

Every year

juliogotay

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #45 on: July 07, 2014, 02:07:47 pm »
Just a hypothetical, but if you knew Strasburg was going to need TJ surgery would you have still drafted him?

I would have. Other teams are taking guys in the first round that they know need TJ. Weren't there two guys in the first round this year?
It potentially puts him about 18 mos. behind schedule if he requires TJ but he's 17.

Let me just say this. FUCK YOU SI.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #46 on: July 07, 2014, 02:25:45 pm »
...
It potentially puts him about 18 mos. behind schedule if he requires TJ but he's 17.

Let me just say this. FUCK YOU SI.
Slow down there. The Astros only have to offer the kid 40% of slot (about $3.1m) in order to still get a comp pick next year if he doesn't sign. So the fact that they're still offering him $5m suggests that it's probably not TJ-level serious, to me at least. I mean, that's still more money than Correa got.
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juliogotay

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #47 on: July 07, 2014, 02:41:59 pm »
Slow down there. The Astros only have to offer the kid 40% of slot (about $3.1m) in order to still get a comp pick next year if he doesn't sign. So the fact that they're still offering him $5m suggests that it's probably not TJ-level serious, to me at least. I mean, that's still more money than Correa got.

Not sure where we disagree?

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #48 on: July 07, 2014, 02:54:46 pm »
Not sure where we disagree?
Maybe I misunderstood, with all the TJ talk I thought you and others might be assuming Aiken will need it.

On one hand, it's probably not a totally worry-free issue, because if it was why risk starting off on the wrong foot with your new #1 pick, and the PR/image fallout? Fair or not, they have egg on their face right now.

But $5m seems like too much for a guy that they think is likely to need TJ now or in the near future. If that were really the case, offer your $3.1m and if he turns it down, you get a unique advantage next year with 2 of the top 5 or so picks.
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juliogotay

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #49 on: July 07, 2014, 03:16:14 pm »
Maybe I misunderstood, with all the TJ talk I thought you and others might be assuming Aiken will need it.

On one hand, it's probably not a totally worry-free issue, because if it was why risk starting off on the wrong foot with your new #1 pick, and the PR/image fallout? Fair or not, they have egg on their face right now.

But $5m seems like too much for a guy that they think is likely to need TJ now or in the near future. If that were really the case, offer your $3.1m and if he turns it down, you get a unique advantage next year with 2 of the top 5 or so picks.

I think I'm taking a more liberal stance than you on Aiken. I think $5m is a fair offer if he doesn't need TJ. I would hate to lose him but it's not my money.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #50 on: July 07, 2014, 03:20:43 pm »
Aiken's trainer says he is healthy. Not sure trainer is the best person, but pretty sure the science of diagnosing an elbow ligament is not that great in general.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #51 on: July 07, 2014, 04:08:04 pm »
I think I'm taking a more liberal stance than you on Aiken. I think $5m is a fair offer if he doesn't need TJ. I would hate to lose him but it's not my money.
Now I'm not sure where we disagree.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #52 on: July 07, 2014, 04:18:33 pm »
the astros are playing the strangers and they are trying awfully hard to loooooooose
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #53 on: July 07, 2014, 04:29:07 pm »
Assuming that there is a medical problem, I wonder how they quantified the offer?  I mean, there is likely a great deal of uncertainty with whether it is an injury or not, then the uncertainty associated with how debilitating it will be, and then the uncertainty over potential repair and recovery.  Seems like a tough figure to haggle over given that it can theoretically be between 40% - 100% of 7.5 million.  Dollar sign on the frayed ligament.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #54 on: July 07, 2014, 04:38:16 pm »
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #55 on: July 07, 2014, 06:27:44 pm »
Maybe I misunderstood, with all the TJ talk I thought you and others might be assuming Aiken will need it.

On one hand, it's probably not a totally worry-free issue, because if it was why risk starting off on the wrong foot with your new #1 pick, and the PR/image fallout? Fair or not, they have egg on their face right now.

But $5m seems like too much for a guy that they think is likely to need TJ now or in the near future. If that were really the case, offer your $3.1m and if he turns it down, you get a unique advantage next year with 2 of the top 5 or so picks.

Golito signed for just under $3mm when the Nats knew he needed TJ. Aiken is a more highly rated prospect, so it's safe to say he should be offered more than the minimum $3.1mm to get the comp pick. 

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #56 on: July 07, 2014, 07:04:33 pm »
Golito signed for just under $3mm when the Nats knew he needed TJ. Aiken is a more highly rated prospect, so it's safe to say he should be offered more than the minimum $3.1mm to get the comp pick. 
Giolito was a potential 1/1 before his injury. So, pretty similar.
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pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #57 on: July 08, 2014, 12:15:23 pm »
The Stros are also dealing with needing to assign Aiken to get the extra #1 slot money to officially sign Nix (who is eating an extra 1.4).  The 5 million maybe be high just to assure the sign.

It also might open the door for Marshall

ETA:
If they sign Aiken for 5 million. then by my calculation they'd have 2.14 million (18th pick money) available to Marshall plus they could go an extra 668k more without losing a pick.  So they could have the ability to offer Marshall 2.8 million (18th pick money) if Aiken signs for 5.

« Last Edit: July 08, 2014, 01:03:24 pm by pots »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #58 on: July 08, 2014, 01:23:36 pm »
I'm not sure that makes me feel better (Aiken isn't really a high injury risk) or worse (they are risking blowing a good 1-1 because they are getting greedy with above slot picks).

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #59 on: July 08, 2014, 02:18:48 pm »
The Stros are also dealing with needing to assign Aiken to get the extra #1 slot money to officially sign Nix (who is eating an extra 1.4).  The 5 million maybe be high just to assure the sign.

It also might open the door for Marshall

ETA:
If they sign Aiken for 5 million. then by my calculation they'd have 2.14 million (18th pick money) available to Marshall plus they could go an extra 668k more without losing a pick.  So they could have the ability to offer Marshall 2.8 million (18th pick money) if Aiken signs for 5.





Nix is signed

Marshall has already started classes at LSU - he can't sign.
Always ready to go to a game.

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #60 on: July 08, 2014, 03:03:18 pm »


Nix is signed

Marshall has already started classes at LSU - he can't sign.

Are you sure?

This is dated June 27th:
Quote
“I’m still talking to Mac Marshall and hopeful that we can potentially convince him to turn pro, but that’s going to be a tough one. He was a little later pick and he’s got a very well known, strong commitment that to this point he intends on honoring.”

Elias said he’s not having ongoing conversations with Marshall, but that the lines were open.

“It’s certainly something that maybe as the deadline nears will intensify,” Elias said.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2014, 04:11:19 pm by pots »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #61 on: July 08, 2014, 04:59:13 pm »
Also, Nix "reached an agreement" on a bonus amount, he hasn't actually signed. If he had, that would put the Astros in a big bind, as a failure to sign Aiken would make that $7.9m disappear from their pool. Which means they would be exceeding their pool by over 15% due to Nix's over-slot deal, which means they would lose their 1st-round pick in 2015 and '16. No bueno.

from mlb.com story dated 7/7:
Quote
Nix, a 6-foot-3 right-handed pitcher from Los Alamitos High School in California, told MLB.com three weeks ago he had reached an agreement on a signing bonus, but Luhnow hinted his signing is contingent on the Aiken signing. Aiken and Nix both have college commitments to UCLA.

"We like to sequence them in a way that makes sense," he said. "That's why even one maybe, possibly could have gotten done earlier, it hasn't gotten done because it depends on the other."

Luhnow said considering both Aiken and Nix were high school seniors, he's not worried about them losing developmental time.

"We're concerned about giving them a professional baseball experience and that could be accomplished with 20, 30 innings in the month of August," he said.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #62 on: July 08, 2014, 06:43:29 pm »
I stand corrected on both counts
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #63 on: July 11, 2014, 01:57:24 pm »
Carlos Rodon signed with the White Sox. Meanwhile, just the sound of crickets coming from Luhnow concerning Aiken.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #64 on: July 11, 2014, 02:18:00 pm »
Carlos Rodon signed with the White Sox. Meanwhile, just the sound of crickets coming from Luhnow concerning Aiken.

Neither the Astros nor Aiken's camp are talking to anyone.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #65 on: July 11, 2014, 02:40:27 pm »
Neither the Astros nor Aiken's camp are talking to anyone.

Why do I have such a bad feeling about this one?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #66 on: July 11, 2014, 05:13:30 pm »
Nothing to see here.  Just chiming in so I can be alerted to further posts, since I somehow missed this whole thread.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #67 on: July 11, 2014, 05:21:50 pm »
moving on and i think i missed the 70s so not to worry
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #68 on: July 11, 2014, 06:38:30 pm »
Why do I have such a bad feeling about this one?

Good case of appelitis.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #69 on: July 12, 2014, 08:00:28 am »
Neither the Astros nor Aiken's camp are talking to anyone.

Given the situation, this actually seems like a good thing. If they were talking it out through the press, I'd think the situation to be a lot worse.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #70 on: July 12, 2014, 08:19:11 am »
Given the situation, this actually seems like a good thing. If they were talking it out through the press, I'd think the situation to be a lot worse.

You're probably right. It'll have to come to a head this week with the signing deadline.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #71 on: July 14, 2014, 08:34:20 am »
You're probably right. It'll have to come to a head this week with the signing deadline.

Yup.  Aiken, Nix and possibly Marshall's career paths in life will be decided by Friday. 8.5 million dollars being tossed around.  No biggie.

Plus for the Astros you have the 1st, 57th and 104th ranked players hanging in the balance.  (to possible add to their alread nice 31st, 41st and 118th players).  could go from a poor draft to a great draft. 

« Last Edit: July 14, 2014, 08:45:08 am by pots »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #72 on: July 14, 2014, 10:31:21 am »
Why do I have such a bad feeling about this one?

I don't think it's anything to be sweating just yet.  When it gets down to the deadline, the Astros are going to be faced with a choice:  Bite the bullet on what is essentially a $1.5M difference (original offer vs. what the club is supposedly offering now), or lose the full slot value of $8M, and with it the option of signing Nix at all.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #73 on: July 14, 2014, 11:16:01 am »
When is the deadline

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #74 on: July 14, 2014, 11:36:41 am »
When is the deadline
7/18.  Not sure the time

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #75 on: July 14, 2014, 11:38:55 am »
7/18.  Not sure the time

They can't go down to close to the wire with Aiken and stil get Nix done.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #76 on: July 14, 2014, 11:48:57 am »
They can't go down to close to the wire with Aiken and stil get Nix done.

Nix is just waiting to put ink on the paper.  Marshall on the other hand would likely require more time.


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Re: Aiken
« Reply #77 on: July 14, 2014, 12:03:47 pm »
7/18.  Not sure the time

It's been 5:00pm EDT in the past, I assume it's the same this year.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #78 on: July 14, 2014, 12:24:31 pm »
I don't think it's anything to be sweating just yet.  When it gets down to the deadline, the Astros are going to be faced with a choice:  Bite the bullet on what is essentially a $1.5M difference (original offer vs. what the club is supposedly offering now), or lose the full slot value of $8M, and with it the option of signing Nix at all.

So what you are saying is that Aiken controls the cards and can force himself to be signed for full slot?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #79 on: July 14, 2014, 12:28:54 pm »
So what you are saying is that Aiken controls the cards and can force himself to be signed for full slot?

Hardly.  He has 5 million to lose if he doesn't sign.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #80 on: July 14, 2014, 12:33:33 pm »
Hardly.  He has 5 million to lose if he doesn't sign.

True, but he would have his college eligibility. If the Astros can't sign him, they lose the entire slot. I have to think that Aiken will drive a hard bargain here.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #81 on: July 14, 2014, 12:43:23 pm »
An article came out over the weekend from a San Diego-based paper, more than hinting that the club is reneging on their original deal and that the difference is what it will take to buy Marshall out of his LSU commitment.  

Quote
Not to go all Oliver Stone here, but the $2.9 million Houston is trying to save on Aiken is almost the exact amount needed to sign two other high school pitchers — fifth-round pick Jacob Nix and 21st-round pick Mac Marshall.

They also call into question the validity of using MRIs to examine pitchers:

Quote
Dr. James Andrews, one of the nation’s most noted orthopedic surgeons, wondered a few years ago if MRIs could be misleading.

A New York Times story from 2011 detailed a study Andrews did in which he “scanned the shoulders of 31 perfectly healthy professional baseball pitchers. The pitchers were not injured and had no pain.”

The findings revealed abnormal shoulder cartilage in 90 percent of the pitchers and abnormal rotator cuff tendons in 87 percent of them.

While those numbers are high, and I don't expect every pitcher to fit into this category, I wonder what percentage of those pitchers have had injuries since that study.  How many will in the next 2-3 years?  We're also talking about shoulders versus an elbow.  Elbows are easier to repair at this point, but is an abnormal elbow tendon more likely to result in downtime than an abnormality in the shoulder?  Those are just a couple of the questions that are not answered.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/Jul/12/brady-aiken-mlb-draft-houston-astros/3/?#article-copy

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #82 on: July 14, 2014, 12:48:18 pm »
True, but he would have his college eligibility. If the Astros can't sign him, they lose the entire slot. I have to think that Aiken will drive a hard bargain here.

Aiken is in line for a 1-1 signing bonus.  He can take his chances in three years and hope he's 1-1 again, but that's an enormous risk for him.  He doesn't hold all the cards here.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #83 on: July 14, 2014, 12:52:04 pm »
Aiken is in line for a 1-1 signing bonus.  He can take his chances in three years and hope he's 1-1 again, but that's an enormous risk for him.  He doesn't hold all the cards here.

I understand that he's got some real skin in the game. However, unlike the Astros, he's potenttially got a second bite at the apple in three years. For the Astros, it's do or die.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #84 on: July 14, 2014, 01:10:37 pm »
The Astros get a second bite of the apple next year, with the number 2 pick and its associated pool amount.  It's not all downside for them.

At any rate, I bet he signs.  However, mending the fences might be delicate.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #85 on: July 14, 2014, 01:10:43 pm »
I understand that he's got some real skin in the game. However, unlike the Astros, he's potenttially got a second bite at the apple in three years. For the Astros, it's do or die.

Yes, but the Astros aren't actually out any money if he doesn't sign, they just lose that from their bonus pool, and they lose the player.  They'll be allowed to sign other players in the future.  For Aiken, this is life changing money.  It's not entirely lop-sided in his favor.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #86 on: July 14, 2014, 01:14:21 pm »
Where do we think Marshall would have been taken if he was considered to be college-bound? Anyone know.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #87 on: July 14, 2014, 01:16:48 pm »
Yes, but the Astros aren't actually out any money if he doesn't sign, they just lose that from their bonus pool, and they lose the player.  They'll be allowed to sign other players in the future.  For Aiken, this is life changing money.  It's not entirely lop-sided in his favor.

My advice to the young man would be that he'd be a damn fool to turn down the Astros offer. There are no guarantees on the future, except for a guaranteed regret if it doesn't work out for him in the future.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #88 on: July 14, 2014, 03:05:55 pm »
An article came out over the weekend from a San Diego-based paper, more than hinting that the club is reneging on their original deal and that the difference is what it will take to buy Marshall out of his LSU commitment.  

They also call into question the validity of using MRIs to examine pitchers:

While those numbers are high, and I don't expect every pitcher to fit into this category, I wonder what percentage of those pitchers have had injuries since that study.  How many will in the next 2-3 years?  We're also talking about shoulders versus an elbow.  Elbows are easier to repair at this point, but is an abnormal elbow tendon more likely to result in downtime than an abnormality in the shoulder?  Those are just a couple of the questions that are not answered.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/Jul/12/brady-aiken-mlb-draft-houston-astros/3/?#article-copy

Were there any facts about the elbow or the current thinking on either end?  For all the writer knows the MRI was crystal clear and the Aiken family is holding all this up.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #89 on: July 14, 2014, 03:06:27 pm »
Where do we think Marshall would have been taken if he was considered to be college-bound? Anyone know.

IIRC, 2nd-ish.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #90 on: July 14, 2014, 06:37:55 pm »
IIRC, 2nd-ish.
In other words, a good talent, but not one worth botching things with the #1 overall pick over. Unless the Astros are even worse at PR and image control than they already seem, I can't believe they'd be stupid enough to go through all this bullshit solely for the purpose of signing Mac Marshall, as the SD hack/writer wants his readers to believe.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #91 on: July 14, 2014, 08:33:36 pm »
Were there any facts about the elbow or the current thinking on either end?  For all the writer knows the MRI was crystal clear and the Aiken family is holding all this up.

He's not the first to mention Aiken's elbow, so I don't think it's really a stretch. As for specifics, nothing proven nor confirmed.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #92 on: July 14, 2014, 08:43:36 pm »
In other words, a good talent, but not one worth botching things with the #1 overall pick over. Unless the Astros are even worse at PR and image control than they already seem, I can't believe they'd be stupid enough to go through all this bullshit solely for the purpose of signing Mac Marshall, as the SD hack/writer wants his readers to believe.

I agree. I have a hard time thinking they're making up all of this, potentially losing out on Aiken, just to get Marshall. No slight to Marshall, but he's not worth blowing the Aiken deal.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #93 on: July 14, 2014, 09:52:46 pm »
It would be pretty incredible if Luhnow pulled off getting all 3, although I'm sure it would cause a negative Astros FO Buster Olney story.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #94 on: July 14, 2014, 10:58:52 pm »
It would be pretty incredible if Luhnow pulled off getting all 3, although I'm sure it would cause a negative Astros FO Buster Olney story.
Aiken/Fisher/Reed/Nix is already quite a nice haul. They probably could've made room for Marshall by doing cheap college senior signs for Rds 3,4,  and whatever if he was really that essential to them. It's not like their choice was either lose Marshall or screw over Aiken. They chose extra college junior slot-money talent like JD Davis and Dan Mengden instead of Marshall.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #95 on: July 15, 2014, 09:43:11 am »
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #96 on: July 15, 2014, 10:18:36 am »
Per the Fox Sports story, Tony Clark's statement irks me.  He is saying, in regard to Nix, that the Astros should honor their offer.  On the surface, that seems reasonable.  However, he knows that the agent for Aiken is also the agent for Nix, and therefore, the two signings are interrelated.  He can maintain that they shouldn't be interrelated, but he knows that they are, and that is no fault of the Astros.  Therefore, he should quit spouting off shit that that he knows is disingenuous. 

I have no idea if the Astros are being assholes in all this, but Clark's criticism is bullshit. I also wonder if he is colluding with the agent in all this.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #97 on: July 15, 2014, 10:34:51 am »
If Aiken's side really thinks this is a complete ruse by the Astros then they should have Aiken waive confidentiality with the Astros so that the Astros can discuss it in public.  If the Astros really have no ammo then it would leave them pretty helpless in discussions.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #98 on: July 15, 2014, 10:44:19 am »
Second pick next year is sounding better by the moment.  

from mlbtraderumors:
Quote
ULY 15: The Astros believe that Aiken’s MRI revealed a “significant abnormality,” Major League sources tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Aiken’s adviser, Casey Close of Excel Sports Management, tells Rosenthal that the team has made just one revised offer — a bonus of $3,168,840. That amount represents the minimum bonus Houston would need to offer in order to receive the second pick in next year’s draft as compensation.

Not the 5 million figure.  Sounds like he's damaged goods
« Last Edit: July 15, 2014, 10:47:38 am by pots »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #99 on: July 15, 2014, 10:51:21 am »
Second pick next year is sounding better by the moment.  

from mlbtraderumors:
Not the 5 million figure.  Sounds like he's damaged goods

You're assuming the agent is a pillar of truth and virtue?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #100 on: July 15, 2014, 10:54:31 am »
Is Marshall also represented by Close?

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #101 on: July 15, 2014, 10:57:18 am »
Why aren't the kids undergoing physicals prior to the draft? NFL prospects are poked and prodded for months by every team interested in them. Particularly with all the TJ surgery going on it would seem a natural thing to do.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #102 on: July 15, 2014, 10:58:29 am »
If the No. 1 overall pick goes unsigned for whatever reason (significant injury or Astros' screwjob on Aiken), the entire front office should be cleaned out, especially since the fifth-round pick would also go unsigned. If the Astros drafted damaged goods at 1-1, then you question why there wasn't due diligence to the highest level. And if they're just screwing with the kid to sign Mac Marshall and it blows up in their face, they should also be gone. You don't get cute at 1-1. When you're not signing draft picks, you're back to the Tim Purpura days.

And if the owner is behind all of this, then God help us.

astrosfan76

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #103 on: July 15, 2014, 11:02:58 am »
Close's comments leave plenty of room for questioning, as well.

Quote
Close said that if every team behaved like the Astros, then the entire structure of the draft would collapse.

“If every player was contingent on another player, we would have no draft, we would have no draft pool, we would have no signings,” Close said. “We’d never be able to reach agreements. They’d either all be reached at the same time, or none of them would ever be reached.”

A: We're talking about one isolated player, not an entire class.

B: In a way, players are already contingent on other players.  Teams/scouts gauge the ability to sign players for different amounts of money.  This number (or range of numbers), at least partly, affects where the player will go and whether teams can fit them into their allotted pool.  In a vacuum, if all players signed for slot money, you would not have this issue.  Player X was drafted in this spot, so they accept slot, everyone moves on.  But, with the draft pools being flexible the way that they are, it allows wiggle room for both the players and the teams.  

Using Nix, for instance, if he sees himself as worth $1.5M, but teams don't see him as being worth drafting at the pick with that value, he falls.  The Astros were able to grab him later because the structure allows them to sign players for less than slot and use the savings elsewhere.  Aiken goes underslot, Nix goes over.  The White Sox went overslot on Rodon, using all of their savings from their other picks, plus a little extra.  This has been done several times since the new structure went into place.  

Applying this logic back to the original point, if no players were willing to sign for underslot, teams couldn't go overslot without incurring penalties.  They would have to alter their boards, affecting where players ultimately go.  It's a two-way street we're looking at.  If you want to go into discussions about negotiating in good faith, that is another matter.  But, to say that the Astros, by saying that we can't sign this player yet because we were anticipating having X amount leftover after signing Player X (who has yet to sign), are attempting to destroy the system is a little careless.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #104 on: July 15, 2014, 11:05:17 am »
If the No. 1 overall pick goes unsigned for whatever reason (significant injury or Astros' screwjob on Aiken), the entire front office should be cleaned out, especially since the fifth-round pick would also go unsigned. If the Astros drafted damaged goods at 1-1, then you question why there wasn't due diligence to the highest level. And if they're just screwing with the kid to sign Mac Marshall and it blows up in their face, they should also be gone. You don't get cute at 1-1. When you're not signing draft picks, you're back to the Tim Purpura days.

And if the owner is behind all of this, then God help us.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #105 on: July 15, 2014, 11:09:35 am »
If the No. 1 overall pick goes unsigned for whatever reason (significant injury or Astros' screwjob on Aiken), the entire front office should be cleaned out, especially since the fifth-round pick would also go unsigned. If the Astros drafted damaged goods at 1-1, then you question why there wasn't due diligence to the highest level. And if they're just screwing with the kid to sign Mac Marshall and it blows up in their face, they should also be gone. You don't get cute at 1-1. When you're not signing draft picks, you're back to the Tim Purpura days.

And if the owner is behind all of this, then God help us.

I don't buy the due diligence angle.  If he is truly damaged, they, like every one else, couldn't have realistically known.  As to the other scenarios, I would agree.  

But if I had to bet, it seems just as likely that this is shenanigans by the agent than it is shenanigans by Luhnow.  I can easily imagine a scenario where the agent thought he has some leverage over the Astros and reneges on agreements.  Luhnows says "fuck you, here is some of my leverage based on new health information, so go and contemplate my new offer."  Things spiral down from there.

Obviously, this is a made up scenario, but it seems just as plausible as the scenario that the Astros decided to derail everything to save some money.  

« Last Edit: July 15, 2014, 11:11:23 am by jbm »

astrosfan76

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #106 on: July 15, 2014, 11:17:35 am »
Ben Badler with possibly the best quote:

Quote
Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 5m

Remarkable, though not surprising, how people with zero information on Brady Aiken's medicals can jump to conclusions about his situation.

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #107 on: July 15, 2014, 12:35:13 pm »
Why aren't the kids undergoing physicals prior to the draft? NFL prospects are poked and prodded for months by every team interested in them. Particularly with all the TJ surgery going on it would seem a natural thing to do.

Would not be surprised to see some rule changes in the next agreement on medical screenings pre-draft given this debacle.




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Re: Aiken
« Reply #108 on: July 15, 2014, 12:41:52 pm »
Luhnow is an official "no comment."
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #109 on: July 15, 2014, 12:44:16 pm »
A little more optimistic viewpoint here. http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/07/14/could-marshall-nix-and-aiken-be-band-of-brothers/#22102103=0&24048101=0

The banter between Nix and Marshall is interesting.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #110 on: July 15, 2014, 12:55:27 pm »
A little more optimistic viewpoint here. http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/07/14/could-marshall-nix-and-aiken-be-band-of-brothers/#22102103=0&24048101=0

The banter between Nix and Marshall is interesting.

They may only need to get Aiken down to 5.5 to land all 3.  Get the feeling Marshall and Nix are similar bonus needs.  So with the 688k the astros could go over without losing a pick they'd have the space.  5 million to Aiken makes more sense so they don't get hit with a luxury tax. 

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #111 on: July 15, 2014, 01:11:40 pm »
Astroscounty had a post theorizing that, if the Astros were willing to incur the 75% tax on the overage, they could probably give Aiken the original $6.5m plus sign Nix and Marshall for a combined $2.5(?)m without losing future draft picks.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #112 on: July 15, 2014, 01:44:07 pm »
Astroscounty had a post theorizing that, if the Astros were willing to incur the 75% tax on the overage, they could probably give Aiken the original $6.5m plus sign Nix and Marshall for a combined $2.5(?)m without losing future draft picks.
 

Well that would be assuming that  Marshal takes 1 million then

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #113 on: July 15, 2014, 02:14:44 pm »
 

Well that would be assuming that  Marshal takes 1 million then
Sorry, I should've said combined $2.5m over slot. $1.5 each. Maybe Marshall would need more than that, I dunno.

Here's the link
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #114 on: July 15, 2014, 06:07:18 pm »
Isn't Marshall off the table since he is already attending class at LSU?  Or is that another change with the July 17 deadline??
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #115 on: July 15, 2014, 06:49:13 pm »
Isn't Marshall off the table since he is already attending class at LSU?  Or is that another change with the July 17 deadline??

He is apparently not off the table.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #116 on: July 15, 2014, 07:07:07 pm »
In the recent Drellich article, one quote implies that it is a congenital thing, not just wear and tear. 

Quote
“He may have some (of the UCL), but not much,” the person said, adding that Tommy John surgery, which has become common in baseball, would not be a straightforward solution in this instance.


http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/07/15/astros-accused-of-manipulating-draft-and-medical-evaluation-rules/

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #117 on: July 15, 2014, 09:38:35 pm »
It just seems ridiculous that an MLB organization would risk this much in such a high profile situation.  There has to be something there that causes concern.

As always, I'm giving the front office the benefit of the doubt (which is the exact opposite stance the national media has taken).  Although I will admit that I'm getting tired of doing it.  This organization is just a PR train wreck.

Side note: Drellich is a quality, big market reporter.  He has done a good job keeping the Astros accountable and reporting the facts.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2014, 09:51:06 pm by roadrunner »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #118 on: July 15, 2014, 09:59:39 pm »
He is apparently not off the table.
Apparently not ... at least in this thread.  But *why* not?  It used to be that once a kid attended a class, that was it.  I asked ... has that changed?  Anyone know the real story??
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #119 on: July 15, 2014, 10:42:01 pm »
It just seems ridiculous that an MLB organization would risk this much in such a high profile situation.  There has to be something there that causes concern.

As always, I'm giving the front office the benefit of the doubt (which is the exact opposite stance the national media has taken).  Although I will admit that I'm getting tired of doing it.  This organization is just a PR train wreck.

Side note: Drellich is a quality, big market reporter.  He has done a good job keeping the Astros accountable and reporting the facts.

The PR mess is largely because the Astros can't talk about it. Everything is one-sided including the potshots from Tony Clark who has no skin in this game.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #120 on: July 15, 2014, 11:04:21 pm »
Apparently not ... at least in this thread.  But *why* not?  It used to be that once a kid attended a class, that was it.  I asked ... has that changed?  Anyone know the real story??

Did he actually attend classes?  Or is he on campus for athletic work?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #121 on: July 16, 2014, 02:47:43 am »
When I read that he was attending classes (a few weeks ago), I wondered if summer classes, before your freshman year, count? Based on the way the media is talking about Marshall it sounds like he is still eligible to sign, but no, I haven't seen a clear explanation why.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #122 on: July 16, 2014, 09:08:24 am »
« Last Edit: July 16, 2014, 09:31:55 am by HudsonHawk »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #123 on: July 16, 2014, 09:15:06 am »
this is a good perspective, I think, from the Astros viewpoint if the information about Aiken's condition that surfaced yesterday is correct.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2014/7/16/5904605/an-aiken-elbow-more-info-comes-to-light

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #124 on: July 16, 2014, 09:28:42 am »
this is a good perspective, I think, from the Astros viewpoint if the information about Aiken's condition that surfaced yesterday is correct.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2014/7/16/5904605/an-aiken-elbow-more-info-comes-to-light

If that article is correct, the Astros are still willing to take a $3.2 million risk.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #125 on: July 16, 2014, 09:34:01 am »
If that article is correct, the Astros are still willing to take a $3.2 million risk.
In order to receive the compensation pick (second overall), they have to offer him 40% of the top pick's allotted value (3.2 million I presume).  So, one could argue that it is riskier not to offer him that much.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #126 on: July 16, 2014, 09:39:29 am »
In order to receive the compensation pick (second overall), they have to offer him 40% of the top pick's allotted value (3.2 million I presume).  So, one could argue that it is riskier not to offer him that much.

That's true. But the club still has to write a big check today for potentially damaged goods for the opportunity to get an extra draft pick next year.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #127 on: July 16, 2014, 09:41:02 am »
In order to receive the compensation pick (second overall), they have to offer him 40% of the top pick's allotted value (3.2 million I presume).  So, one could argue that it is riskier not to offer him that much.

Yeah if they accidentally drafted me, they would likely offer me 3.2 million just to either have the slot money for Nix and Marshall or hope I'm brain dead and they get next year's second pick.

If i read the crawfish article correctly, TJ likely leads to a pitcher with less velocity and perhaps one that doesn't have the ability to make it (certainly not an ace).  Or just let it play out and hope it's the tiny ligament that could.  Of course all this is based on internet interpretation of hear-say.  

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #128 on: July 16, 2014, 09:44:26 am »
That's true. But the club still has to write a big check today for potentially damaged goods for the opportunity to get an extra draft pick next year.
Well, they are not both writing a check and getting the pick next year.  If they write the check, it means Aiken signs and there is no pick next year.  If there is a pick, it means that Aiken did not sign and thus, no check.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #129 on: July 16, 2014, 09:50:36 am »
Well, they are not both writing a check and getting the pick next year.  If they write the check, it means Aiken signs and there is no pick next year.  If there is a pick, it means that Aiken did not sign and thus, no check.

If Aiken's camp truly believes the propaganda they are spewing, he won't sign for 3.2.  (Which may very well be the best result for the Astros at this point).   I think every team in the majors would trade a 2nd(Marshall), 3rd (Assumed Aiken worth) and 4th (Nix) round pick for pick 1-2 in the following years draft.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2014, 09:55:20 am by pots »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #130 on: July 16, 2014, 10:01:35 am »
Let me get scenarios straight:

1) Sign Aiken for 3.2M, sign Nix and Marshall with remaining slot money
2) Aiken turns down 3.2M, pick #1A in 2015 draft, slot money for offering Aiken the required amount enables Astros to sign Nix and Marshall

Is that right?

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #131 on: July 16, 2014, 10:04:26 am »
If Aiken's camp truly believes the propaganda they are spewing, he won't sign for 3.2.
This is the beauty in all this: at some point, they have to come clean.  Either they believe (and feel everyone but the Astros will agree with them) he has no greater long-term risk and go to school, or they tacitly acknowledge that the Astros' concerns are legit and sign.

As to Law and Callis and the "If he were a free agent" and "the system sucks" off-point ramblings.  If Aiken truly has a problem in the eyes of honest assessors, then this "sucky system" produced a crapload of money for someone who otherwise would not have got it.   In other words, instead of screwing him, it gave him an undeserving windfall.  

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #132 on: July 16, 2014, 10:04:50 am »
Let me get scenarios straight:

1) Sign Aiken for 3.2M, sign Nix and Marshall with remaining slot money
2) Aiken turns down 3.2M, pick #1A in 2015 draft, slot money for offering Aiken the required amount enables Astros to sign Nix and Marshall

Is that right?

No.  If Aiken doesn't sign, the Astros lose all $8MM of his slot money, and they will not have the money to sign Nix or Marshall.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #133 on: July 16, 2014, 10:15:55 am »
No.  If Aiken doesn't sign, the Astros lose all $8MM of his slot money, and they will not have the money to sign Nix or Marshall.

Ah shit.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #134 on: July 16, 2014, 10:16:30 am »
This is the beauty in all this: at some point, they have to come clean.  Either they believe (and feel everyone but the Astros will agree with them) he has no greater long-term risk and go to school, or they tacitly acknowledge that the Astros' concerns are legit and sign.

As to Law and Callis and the "If he were a free agent" and "the system sucks" off-point ramblings.  If Aiken truly has a problem in the eyes of honest assessors, then this "sucky system" produced a crapload of money for someone who otherwise would not have got it.   In other words, instead of screwing him, it gave him an undeserving windfall.  

I suspect we will see a renewed fight by MLB for pre-draft physicals. Not that they will necessarily win the fight.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #135 on: July 16, 2014, 10:17:45 am »
No.  If Aiken doesn't sign, the Astros lose all $8MM of his slot money, and they will not have the money to sign Nix or Marshall.

And we'll get to hear renewed carping from Tony Clark about the Astros getting what they deserve for trying to game the system.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #136 on: July 16, 2014, 10:23:36 am »
This is the beauty in all this: at some point, they have to come clean.  Either they believe (and feel everyone but the Astros will agree with them) he has no greater long-term risk and go to school, or they tacitly acknowledge that the Astros' concerns are legit and sign.

As to Law and Callis and the "If he were a free agent" and "the system sucks" off-point ramblings.  If Aiken truly has a problem in the eyes of honest assessors, then this "sucky system" produced a crapload of money for someone who otherwise would not have got it.   In other words, instead of screwing him, it gave him an undeserving windfall.  

Yeah basically when the MRI came back with bad news, the Astros had already lost (meaning they were already out a 1-1 pick).  The good news is they have 2 viable (but not as good as 1-1) contingency plans in either adding the full trifecta of Aieken, Nix and Marshall or getting 1-2 next year. 

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #137 on: July 16, 2014, 10:32:39 am »
The frustrating thing is it sounds like they couldn't have done anything to prevent this situation, just snakebit.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #138 on: July 16, 2014, 10:37:40 am »
And we'll get to hear renewed carping from Tony Clark about the Astros getting what they deserve for trying to game the system.

This is the hell of it.  The Astros have ZERO motivation to not get these two signed.  None.  What.  So.  Ever.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #139 on: July 16, 2014, 10:46:48 am »
The frustrating thing is it sounds like they couldn't have done anything to prevent this situation, just snakebit.

Well you could have drafted a safer pick.  High school pitcher = huge risk.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #140 on: July 16, 2014, 10:57:06 am »
Well you could have drafted a safer pick.  High school pitcher = huge risk.

This really is turning out to be the truth isn't it.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #141 on: July 16, 2014, 11:08:47 am »
Predictions?

I say we sign Aiken for $4.5M and get the other 2 as well.  Hopefully optimistic.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #142 on: July 16, 2014, 11:12:59 am »
This really is turning out to be the truth isn't it.

I don't buy this.  Low-probability shit can happen to any class of draftees.  However, it does highlight how low-probability shit can derail the best laid plans. 

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #143 on: July 16, 2014, 11:30:06 am »
Your theory is 3 more years for his elbow to explode?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #144 on: July 16, 2014, 11:44:57 am »
Your theory is 3 more years for his elbow to explode?

No my theory is that there were safer bets like Nola that may not have ace ceiling but could be a top notch #2.  And with likely ~2 years less development time.  2 years less time for bad shit to happen.  That is all.  That's not to say that Aiken was the wrong pick.  Just one that comes with a higher risk and likely higher reward. 


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Re: Aiken
« Reply #145 on: July 16, 2014, 12:44:16 pm »
No my theory is that there were safer bets like Nola that may not have ace ceiling but could be a top notch #2.  And with likely ~2 years less development time.  2 years less time for bad shit to happen.  That is all.  That's not to say that Aiken was the wrong pick.  Just one that comes with a higher risk and likely higher reward.

Meh. Barrett Loux was a safe college pick until AZ saw his physical and declined to sign him.  Rangers ultimately did (much to my chagrin), and Loux is currently rehabbing from TJ surgery...  Without pre-draft physicals, its all a crapshoot (be it Aiken, Nola, etc.).
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #146 on: July 16, 2014, 01:10:26 pm »
this is long but it may be the most reasonable take on this mess yet.  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/everyone-looks-bad-in-the-brady-aiken-mess/

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #147 on: July 16, 2014, 01:16:53 pm »
Meh. Barrett Loux was a safe college pick until AZ saw his physical and declined to sign him.  Rangers ultimately did (much to my chagrin), and Loux is currently rehabbing from TJ surgery...  Without pre-draft physicals, its all a crapshoot (be it Aiken, Nola, etc.).

But Barrett Loux was already questionable given his history at A&M and was not a consensus first rounder.  Nola is a much safer pick than Loux was.


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Re: Aiken
« Reply #148 on: July 16, 2014, 01:22:06 pm »
Well you could have drafted a safer pick.  High school pitcher = huge risk.

Generally, when they talk about the risk involved w/ taking a h.s. pitcher, they're more referring to the high bust/wash-out rate, not necessarily injury rate.  This situation will certainly reinforce that narrative, though.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #149 on: July 16, 2014, 07:10:09 pm »
BA article mostly just summarizing the situation, but with some interesting details about Marshall.

I love how carefully-worded Close's statements are. He says Aiken is ready to pitch, etc; but he doesn't deny that there's something wrong with the elbow, or that said something could cause him a serious injury in the future.

Barely having a UCL in your elbow, if true, does not sound like a trumped-up concern to me. And with the way Close has bad-mouthed the Astros over this, you have to wonder if it will affect future dealings with other clients of his.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #150 on: July 16, 2014, 08:55:24 pm »
The only thing clear about this situation is that the Astros will lose no matter what.  Best case for the team - they get all 3 players and get torched by the media.  Worst case - they fail to sign all 3 and get scorched by the fanbase (what is left of it) and media.


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Re: Aiken
« Reply #151 on: July 16, 2014, 09:08:01 pm »
I suspect we will see a renewed fight by MLB for pre-draft physicals. Not that they will necessarily win the fight.

Who are they fighting with? Not the players union, and certainly not with the yet-to-be-drafted, who have no say in the matter. MLB could institute a new rule tomorrow saying that they will have a combine-style event solely for physicals, and they'll pay for the physicals. Anybody who doesn't fork over a medical history before the draft, either from their own physician or from the combine, can't be drafted in the first N rounds. That ought to fix the problem.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #152 on: July 16, 2014, 09:45:24 pm »
Who are they fighting with? Not the players union, and certainly not with the yet-to-be-drafted, who have no say in the matter. MLB could institute a new rule tomorrow saying that they will have a combine-style event solely for physicals, and they'll pay for the physicals. Anybody who doesn't fork over a medical history before the draft, either from their own physician or from the combine, can't be drafted in the first N rounds. That ought to fix the problem.

I just assumed the union was preventing the pre-draft physicals. No? Why would MLB prevent it?

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #153 on: July 16, 2014, 09:47:12 pm »
The only thing clear about this situation is that the Astros will lose no matter what.  Best case for the team - they get all 3 players and get torched by the media.  Worst case - they fail to sign all 3 and get scorched by the fanbase (what is left of it) and media.


Neither of those matter.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #154 on: July 16, 2014, 09:51:40 pm »
I just assumed the union was preventing the pre-draft physicals. No? Why would MLB prevent it?

I obviously don't know anything definitive, but the players' union stance on everything else before has been all about maximizing the return for current major leaguers. I don't think they give a shit who is drafted first as long as the slot numbers remain the same (since they can presumably have some impact on future contract amounts).

I honestly don't know why MLB hasn't taken care of this before, because it was obviously a problem waiting to blow up in somebody's face. The NBA and NFL certainly don't make their teams make picks in the dark. There's already enough uncertainty around character, motivation, work ethic, future development, etc. Why add uncertainty about physical condition to that?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #155 on: July 16, 2014, 10:54:52 pm »
I don't understand why they don't just take whatever money they have and sign all three of these guys and if one of them blows out his arm, who cares, one of them was likely to blow out his arm anyway. You get three guys for $8MM and if one of them emerges as a valuable player you're ahead of the game. The price you're paying for these guys today is artificially depressed so take advantage of it and move on.

The last thing any Astros fan should want to see is these guys let loose with two top five picks in the same draft.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #156 on: July 17, 2014, 12:17:53 am »
I agree, Chuck, of course it's not my money.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #157 on: July 17, 2014, 04:10:29 am »
And Heyman weighs in again, correctly pointing out that both sides have a lot to lose if they can't work out a compromise.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #158 on: July 17, 2014, 06:38:31 am »
I don't understand why they don't just take whatever money they have and sign all three of these guys and if one of them blows out his arm, who cares, one of them was likely to blow out his arm anyway. You get three guys for $8MM and if one of them emerges as a valuable player you're ahead of the game. The price you're paying for these guys today is artificially depressed so take advantage of it and move on.

The last thing any Astros fan should want to see is these guys let loose with two top five picks in the same draft.

1.  The "money they have" is not enough to sign all three guys.  They can't get all three for $8MM, it'd take more like $10MM, which puts them well over their bonus pool, meaning they'd owe a luxury tax PLUS forfeit their first and second round picks next year (will be top 5 picks, if not number 1).

2.  The money they spend this year affects their bonus pool in coming years, so they have to be smart about that.

3.  Blowing $6.5MM on a 1-1 pick who has a pretty good chance of not being able to turn a door knob in 3 years is not a wise investment.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #159 on: July 17, 2014, 06:40:06 am »
Who are they fighting with? Not the players union, and certainly not with the yet-to-be-drafted, who have no say in the matter. MLB could institute a new rule tomorrow saying that they will have a combine-style event solely for physicals, and they'll pay for the physicals. Anybody who doesn't fork over a medical history before the draft, either from their own physician or from the combine, can't be drafted in the first N rounds. That ought to fix the problem.

No they can't.  The CBA is clear about what medical evaluations can and can't be done.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #160 on: July 17, 2014, 01:21:47 pm »
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #161 on: July 17, 2014, 01:30:04 pm »
I'm getting tired of the Aiken drama, and there's still a day left of it. I predict that the Astros will be slaughtered in the court of public opinion and fail to sign Aiken and Nix. The consolation of possibly getting Marshall and a comp pick in 2015 seems hardly worth the damage.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #162 on: July 17, 2014, 01:44:14 pm »
I'm getting tired of the Aiken drama, and there's still a day left of it. I predict that the Astros will be slaughtered in the court of public opinion and fail to sign Aiken and Nix. The consolation of possibly getting Marshall and a comp pick in 2015 seems hardly worth the damage.

If they don't sign Aiken, then they are not going to have available slot money to sign Marshall...  And speaking of Marshall, that'd be a shame as otherwise he will be forced to endure going to school at LSU which I think we can all agree is cruel and unusual punishment... [/ducking]
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #163 on: July 17, 2014, 01:48:45 pm »
If they don't sign Aiken, then they are not going to have available slot money to sign Marshall...  And speaking of Marshall, that'd be a shame as otherwise he will be forced to endure going to school at LSU which I think we can all agree is cruel and unusual punishment... [/ducking]

I thought that simply making him the 40% offer saved some of the slot money.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #164 on: July 17, 2014, 01:50:14 pm »
I thought that simply making him the 40% offer saved some of the slot money.

No.  The 40% offer gives them the compensatory pick next year, but they lose the entire $8MM of slot money if Aiken doesn't sign.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #165 on: July 17, 2014, 01:59:14 pm »
1.  The "money they have" is not enough to sign all three guys.  They can't get all three for $8MM, it'd take more like $10MM, which puts them well over their bonus pool, meaning they'd owe a luxury tax PLUS forfeit their first and second round picks next year (will be top 5 picks, if not number 1).

Of course they can sign all three for $8MM, they just need Aiken to step back a bit from the $6.5MM, that's the whole point of all this. Five for Aiken, one and a half for Nix, one and a half or a bit less for Marshall, bing bang boom, blackjack.

That's not to say that I doubt that Aiken's tests indicate some sort of abnormality. But even so, like I've said, these players are available right now at artificially low prices and I would certainly take risks on players I believe in. Hell, if I had to I would sign Aiken at the original $6.5MM and take Nix at his original $1.5 and move on from there.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #166 on: July 17, 2014, 01:59:24 pm »
I'm getting tired of the Aiken drama, and there's still a day left of it. I predict that the Astros will be slaughtered in the court of public opinion and fail to sign Aiken and Nix. The consolation of possibly getting Marshall and a comp pick in 2015 seems hardly worth the damage.

+1

For what its worth, Aiken may need to take stock in what he has to lose before turning up his nose to $3-5 MM.  A quick glance at slots shows that range covers picks 4 to 8.  It's hard enough to get into the top 3 in one year, much less multiple years - a single bad season either at UCLA or JC could hinder his ability to stay in that top 3.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #167 on: July 17, 2014, 02:05:51 pm »
Of course they can sign all three for $8MM, they just need Aiken to step back a bit from the $6.5MM, that's the whole point of all this. Five for Aiken, one and a half for Nix, one and a half or a bit less for Marshall, bing bang boom, blackjack.

Of course they *can*.  Hell, they *could* sign all three for $1MM, if they were willing.  It's not a matter of what's possible, it's a matter of what's realistic.


Quote
That's not to say that I doubt that Aiken's tests indicate some sort of abnormality. But even so, like I've said, these players are available right now at artificially low prices and I would certainly take risks on players I believe in. Hell, if I had to I would sign Aiken at the original $6.5MM and take Nix at his original $1.5 and move on from there.

That's just it...they don't believe in Aiken at this point.  They have the option of a do-over on him, and it appears more and more likely that's the way they're leaning, even if it means losing Nix in the process.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2014, 02:07:33 pm by HudsonHawk »
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #168 on: July 17, 2014, 02:24:10 pm »
That's just it...they don't believe in Aiken at this point.  They have the option of a do-over on him, and it appears more and more likely that's the way they're leaning, even if it means losing Nix in the process.

Right, and my point is that this is a bad idea.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #169 on: July 17, 2014, 02:47:59 pm »
Right, and my point is that this is a bad idea.

Worse than wasting a first round pick on and giving $6.5MM to someone you don't think will ever play for you?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #170 on: July 17, 2014, 03:02:42 pm »
Worse than wasting a first round pick on and giving $6.5MM to someone you don't think will ever play for you?

They're still paying Appel.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #171 on: July 17, 2014, 03:21:39 pm »
Worse than wasting a first round pick on and giving $6.5MM to someone you don't think will ever play for you?

First of all, he's able to play now. The uncertainty regards his durability which is a concern with every pitcher anywhere. Second, I'm averaging the initial cost of two prized prospects and in doing that I discover that the cost is to my liking.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #172 on: July 17, 2014, 03:28:30 pm »
First of all, he's able to play now. The uncertainty regards his durability which is a concern with every pitcher anywhere. Second, I'm averaging the initial cost of two prized prospects and in doing that I discover that the cost is to my liking.

Which is exactly what the Astros are doing, right?

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #173 on: July 17, 2014, 03:31:07 pm »
Which is exactly what the Astros are doing, right?

Unclear, it may be. But it's not what Hudson wants to do which is why I'm arguing with him.

Also, masochism.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #174 on: July 17, 2014, 03:36:47 pm »
Unclear, it may be. But it's not what Hudson wants to do which is why I'm arguing with him.

Also, masochism.

You silly guy, you. You two are entertaining me.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #175 on: July 17, 2014, 04:04:05 pm »
I feel very uneasy that I find myself agreeing with Hudson and disagreeing with Chuck.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #176 on: July 17, 2014, 04:05:19 pm »
They're still paying Appel.

Do the Astros doubt he'll ever make the big leagues?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #177 on: July 17, 2014, 04:07:44 pm »
I feel very uneasy that I find myself agreeing with Hudson and disagreeing with Chuck.

I bet agreeing with you even makes HH nervous.
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HudsonHawk

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #178 on: July 17, 2014, 04:08:21 pm »
First of all, he's able to play now. The uncertainty regards his durability which is a concern with every pitcher anywhere. Second, I'm averaging the initial cost of two prized prospects and in doing that I discover that the cost is to my liking.

The goal is not spend a first round pick and $6.5MM on a minor leaguer. The future is all that matters. The Astros have serious concerns he'll ever make it that far.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #179 on: July 17, 2014, 04:10:06 pm »
Unclear, it may be. But it's not what Hudson wants to do which is why I'm arguing with him.

Also, masochism.

I haven't said what I want to do (besides your mother, Trebek). I'm saying I understand why the Astros are considering Door #2.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #180 on: July 17, 2014, 04:24:15 pm »
Just listened to a Drellich interview on the Olney podcast.  Drellich figures that Close figures that the Astros will relent due to bad publicity.  Basically, that the Astros can't endure any more bad press this year.  Drellich agrees with Close's figuring. 

They both might be right, but if the Astros actually believe that Aiken is, or soon will be, broken and is therefore valueless, can they really afford to only get a possible bust, and two second round quality pitching prospects out of two years' worth of 1.1s?  In other words, will basic asset management trump more bad press?  They've been perfectly willing to endure plenty of bad press so far, why not more?

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #181 on: July 17, 2014, 04:37:46 pm »
Just listened to a Drellich interview on the Olney podcast.  Drellich figures that Close figures that the Astros will relent due to bad publicity.  Basically, that the Astros can't endure any more bad press this year.  Drellich agrees with Close's figuring. 

They both might be right, but if the Astros actually believe that Aiken is, or soon will be, broken and is therefore valueless, can they really afford to only get a possible bust, and two second round quality pitching prospects out of two years' worth of 1.1s?  In other words, will basic asset management trump more bad press?  They've been perfectly willing to endure plenty of bad press so far, why not more?

The Astros can't afford to let the media make their draft picks.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #182 on: July 17, 2014, 04:38:59 pm »
I haven't said what I want to do (besides your mother, Trebek). I'm saying I understand why the Astros are considering Door #2.

Door #2 necessarily means forfeiting one and possibly two other coveted pitching prospects all because of durability concerns regarding a seventeen year old. No one really knows what having a small UCL would do to Aiken. My point is paying your remaining allocated money for three coveted prospects is a good idea even if there is an above average risk that one of them will have elbow issues.

Beyond that there is the very real issue that the Astros are alienating themselves as a franchise and that will have a tangible impact on their ability to sign free agents and even future draft picks.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #183 on: July 17, 2014, 04:39:33 pm »
The Astros can't afford to let the media make their draft picks.

Letting the front office make the draft picks doesn't seem to be working all that great, either.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #184 on: July 17, 2014, 04:45:52 pm »
Door #2 necessarily means forfeiting one and possibly two other coveted pitching prospects all because of durability concerns regarding a seventeen year old.

It also means getting the second pick in next year's draft.

Quote
Beyond that there is the very real issue that the Astros are alienating themselves as a franchise and that will have a tangible impact on their ability to sign free agents and even future draft picks.

I cannot imagine this would ever be any real concern.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #185 on: July 17, 2014, 04:46:47 pm »
Letting the front office make the draft picks doesn't seem to be working all that great, either.

Where is Charlie Casserly when you need him?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #186 on: July 17, 2014, 04:47:35 pm »
No one really knows what having a small UCL would do to Aiken.
What if the Astros feel they do know, and in their assessment, it means that he won't ever see a major league mound?

One the other hand, if the Astros feel it is just another uncertainty which they have no handle on, then I think you are right and the Astros will end up doing what you want them to.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #187 on: July 17, 2014, 04:49:22 pm »
What if the Astros feel they do know, and in their assessment, it means that he won't ever see a major league mound?

We don't even know that a small UCL is the issue.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #188 on: July 17, 2014, 04:55:16 pm »
We don't even know that a small UCL is the issue.
True, but if the reports that they are offering the minimum are true, then either:

They feel he is a ticking time bomb for some physical reason (UCL or something else); or

They are gigantic assholes

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #189 on: July 17, 2014, 04:56:50 pm »
True, but if the reports that they are offering the minimum are true, then either:

They feel he is a ticking time bomb for some physical reason (UCL or something else); or

They are gigantic assholes

Sure. But we don't know the medical issue is *only* a smaller than normal UCL.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #190 on: July 17, 2014, 04:59:41 pm »
In the FWIW department:

Quote
@jimcallisMLB
My gut feel is Aiken, Newcomb, Fedde all sign & @Astros also get 5th-rder Nix & 21st-rder Marshall done.
4:44 PM - 17 Jul 2014

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #191 on: July 17, 2014, 05:08:46 pm »
What if the Astros feel they do know, and in their assessment, it means that he won't ever see a major league mound?

They should bear in mind that their analysis may be flawed and that the Aiken signing impacts the availability of two other important picks.

And while the FO shouldn't be unduly concerned with media perception or public perception they should certainly strive to be an organization that is trusted and respected throughout baseball.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #192 on: July 17, 2014, 05:12:00 pm »
They should bear in mind that their analysis may be flawed and that the Aiken signing impacts the availability of two other important picks.

I would imagine that possibility has crossed their minds.

Quote
And while the FO shouldn't be unduly concerned with media perception or public perception they should certainly strive to be an organization that is trusted and respected throughout baseball.

I think they rightfully understand that winning is what will bring respect.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #193 on: July 17, 2014, 05:13:43 pm »
Do the Astros doubt he'll ever make the big leagues?

They'd be the only ones who don't based upon the start to his professional career.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #194 on: July 17, 2014, 05:22:49 pm »
They'd be the only ones who don't based upon the start to his professional career.

If they don't believe he can ever help them, then they need to get rid of him.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #195 on: July 17, 2014, 05:34:49 pm »
If they don't believe he can ever help them, then they need to get rid of him.

Nah.  It's just that he has a lot of bad luck whenever he pitches.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #196 on: July 17, 2014, 05:40:41 pm »
They should bear in mind that their analysis may be flawed and that the Aiken signing impacts the availability of two other important picks.

And while the FO shouldn't be unduly concerned with media perception or public perception they should certainly strive to be an organization that is trusted and respected throughout baseball.
I think you might be overestimating the importance of Nix and Marshall. They were both seen by the industry as 2nd- or 3rd-round talents, and while the Astros probably like them a bit more than most other teams, it's unlikely that they see them as, say, a McCullers-level prize. If you reduce the question to Would you rather have Nix + Marshall, or the 2015 #2 overall pick, obviously the answer is B.

So it comes down to how they value Aiken now. If his value sinks down equal to that of a 2nd-round pick, then most teams would probably still prefer the #2 overall pick to the trio. Especially if the combo of #1&2, or 2&4 or whatever they end up with, gives them a huge pool that also lets them sign 3 or 4 Nix-types next year.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #197 on: July 17, 2014, 05:47:44 pm »
In baseball do you really think a #2 pick is worth more than 3 second round picks? Seems like such a crapshoot I wouldn't have thought so.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #198 on: July 17, 2014, 06:15:09 pm »
In baseball do you really think a #2 pick is worth more than 3 second round picks? Seems like such a crapshoot I wouldn't have thought so.
Me personally? In my amateur, unstudied opinion, I think the average 2nd-round pick is far more than 3x the crapshoot that a #2 overall pick is, as far as finding a future above-average or star-caliber player goes. Would anyone trade Buxton, or Bryant, or Kolek for a package of Nolan Fontana, Andrew Thurman, and AJ Reed?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #199 on: July 18, 2014, 02:03:00 am »
If they don't believe he can ever help them, then they need to get rid of him.

See e.g. Martinez, JD.

What?!? Huh?!?  No way... Nevermind...

FML...
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #200 on: July 18, 2014, 06:46:13 am »
In baseball do you really think a #2 pick is worth more than 3 second round picks? Seems like such a crapshoot I wouldn't have thought so.

I haven't seen anything lately, but as I recall there's a real fall-off in quality much quicker than you'd expect, and while there are flameouts the highest picks have a much better chance of being solid players.  They might bet lucky, but yes, probably.  I wouldn't bet on this team's luck.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #201 on: July 18, 2014, 07:09:51 am »
I guess that makes sense, it sounds like the success rate for top picks is higher than I realized.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #202 on: July 18, 2014, 07:26:09 am »
Well today's the day.  Never a dull moment with this organization, at least until the playoffs

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #203 on: July 18, 2014, 08:16:22 am »
 If they get the 2nd overall next year (6.8 million) slot   combined with their original high pick slot money,  there is a lot of pool money to pick up Nix-McCullers level guys  in semi later rounds next year.   

So the tradeoff would like this

1- Push back the premium pick (Aiken) one season.  to 1:2 next year.  Maybe trade damaged goods for similar talent? Not sure how Aiken is viewed in terms of top 2 picks.
2-Push back the McCullers type late rd guy (who was  very doubtful to sign before this happened)  to next year with extra slot money.
3-Lose value of 5th round pick on Nix this year, where you could have drafted say a not over slot guy.  But you might  make up the talent with extra $ to work with next year.

So from where they were sitting on draft day..  when Aiken was healthy and McCullers was going to LSU and Nix was going to get done.     They push  that talent back 1 season and get it on top of what they would get next year.   And you lose the marginal value of a "regular" guy in Nix' 5th round.  And  McCullers  20th?  round
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 08:18:07 am by Twoniner »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #204 on: July 18, 2014, 08:30:08 am »
 And lord help all the whiny  baseball writers if Astros end up with BOTH 1-1  and 1-2 next year.  Because then the screws would really be put to one or both the players, and the nerds would have about 4 million in pool money to work with afterwards.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #205 on: July 18, 2014, 08:34:50 am »
Whatever happens today, I'll be pissed if the Astros get the 1-1 next year.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #206 on: July 18, 2014, 08:39:21 am »
Whatever happens today, I'll be pissed if the Astros get the 1-1 next year.

I'd start preparing to be pissed off then now. Avoid the rush.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #207 on: July 18, 2014, 08:49:42 am »
I'd start preparing to be pissed off then now. Avoid the rush.

Hell, I'll be pissed if they finish behind the Rangers.

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #208 on: July 18, 2014, 08:57:25 am »
In the end, Aiken will be an Astro by the end of the day.  He literally has no cards to play.  The Astros aren't going to receive any more bad press than they already got so I don't see the pressure there.  3.2 million is the biggest bonus Aiken will ever see.  No team will be privy to medical information before his next draft.  Whose going to spend a top 10 pick that the another mlb team ran from after seeing the results of an MRI?  Doesn't matter what Aiken doesn't between now and his next draft the medical concern will be too great for a team to spend a top 10 pick.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #209 on: July 18, 2014, 09:09:00 am »
In the end, Aiken will be an Astro by the end of the day.  He literally has no cards to play.  The Astros aren't going to receive any more bad press than they already got so I don't see the pressure there.  3.2 million is the biggest bonus Aiken will ever see.  No team will be privy to medical information before his next draft.  Whose going to spend a top 10 pick that the another mlb team ran from after seeing the results of an MRI?  Doesn't matter what Aiken doesn't between now and his next draft the medical concern will be too great for a team to spend a top 10 pick.

Unless he really believes the Astros are fucking him around and shares information proactively
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #210 on: July 18, 2014, 09:11:33 am »
I hope the Astros keep failing to sign picks but still offer 40% of slot every year so that finally in 2020 we'll have the top 8 picks of the draft and some ridiculous pool amount.

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #211 on: July 18, 2014, 09:13:24 am »
Unless he really believes the Astros are fucking him around and shares information proactively

If this was true then his camp would have brought forth medical data or at least directly disputed the Astros claims which they have not done.  

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #212 on: July 18, 2014, 09:15:42 am »
In the end, Aiken will be an Astro by the end of the day.  He literally has no cards to play.  The Astros aren't going to receive any more bad press than they already got so I don't see the pressure there.  3.2 million is the biggest bonus Aiken will ever see.  No team will be privy to medical information before his next draft.  Whose going to spend a top 10 pick that the another mlb team ran from after seeing the results of an MRI?  Doesn't matter what Aiken doesn't between now and his next draft the medical concern will be too great for a team to spend a top 10 pick.

And his elbow could go kaput while pitching at UCLA or, more likely, a jr. college where he can re-enter next year rather than take the chance of three years of college wear-n-tear. In fact, I read where he may not be able to attend a four year school and retain his eligibility since he had an agent. Aiken's options really are limited. I feel bad for him. He seems like a fine young fellow who has worked hard and done all the right things to be a success as a baseball pitcher. This sucks all around.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #213 on: July 18, 2014, 09:19:40 am »
And his elbow could go kaput while pitching at UCLA or, more likely, a jr. college where he can re-enter next year rather than take the chance of three years of college wear-n-tear. In fact, I read where he may not be able to attend a four year school and retain his eligibility since he had an agent. Aiken's options really are limited. I feel bad for him. He seems like a fine young fellow who has worked hard and done all the right things to be a success as a baseball pitcher. This sucks all around.

Nix is also getting fucked by Close.   He is using Nix as a sacrificial lamb to try to get more for Aiken. If Aiken doesn't agree, then Nix either has to sign for 1/5th the agreed amount or take his chances next year.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #214 on: July 18, 2014, 09:21:43 am »
And his elbow could go kaput while pitching at UCLA or, more likely, a jr. college where he can re-enter next year rather than take the chance of three years of college wear-n-tear. In fact, I read where he may not be able to attend a four year school and retain his eligibility since he had an agent. Aiken's options really are limited. I feel bad for him. He seems like a fine young fellow who has worked hard and done all the right things to be a success as a baseball pitcher. This sucks all around.

He should be thankful of the 40% rule the current CBA has.  He's going to receive a 3.2 million dollar pay day even though he apparently is genetically (if everything leaked is actually true) unable to survive as a major league pitcher.  And should be kissing mom and pop everyday for making sure he wasn't overworked in high school like many other pitchers are.  I'm sure we all have met a guy that was heavily scouted in high school (and earlier) until he blew out his elbow.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 09:50:18 am by pots »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #215 on: July 18, 2014, 09:23:26 am »
I hope the Astros keep failing to sign picks but still offer 40% of slot every year so that finally in 2020 we'll have the top 8 picks of the draft and some ridiculous pool amount.

lol ..  but sorry.. they won't get compensation for compensatory pick...

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #216 on: July 18, 2014, 09:32:31 am »
I hope the Astros keep failing to sign picks but still offer 40% of slot every year so that finally in 2020 we'll have the top 8 picks of the draft and some ridiculous pool amount.

The Astros would have to sign next year's 2nd pick or lose that pick forever.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #217 on: July 18, 2014, 09:36:46 am »
You probably know the story, but R.A. Dickey had problems after being taken by the rangers in the first round out of college. He was missing the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow joint, according to wikipedia.
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pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #218 on: July 18, 2014, 09:46:51 am »
You probably know the story, but R.A. Dickey had problems after being taken by the rangers in the first round out of college. He was missing the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow joint, according to wikipedia.

And the numbers behind that:
Quote
So the Rangers then pulled their offer of $810,000 and replaced it with a far cheaper deal of $75,000.

Dickey has said that it feels like, "Winning the lottery and then losing the ticket." Dickey signed the measly $75,000 because he did not feel another team would take a shot at him and his missing UCL. 

So Dickey received just over 9% of the initial offer

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #219 on: July 18, 2014, 09:57:42 am »
I feel for the kid.  From a financial stand point it is not anywhere near the kick in the balls Dickey got.  But I imagine the whole thing is devastating to him.    He was on top of the world on June 6th.  #1 overall all a 6.5 million dollar pay day.  Dreams of pitching on a major league mound well on there way to coming true.  Then BAM!!.  Sorry kid, your pitching days are numbered.  Could be next week, could be 5 years.  Sooner or later that tiny ligament will give out.  His agent is crying financial misery but I'd guess Aiken has gone through a myriad of emotions after learning the news.  And I'd also guess given that he still is going to get half of what he was expecting that the baseball end of things has been much more painful.

Again though, still all wild ass speculation, since the actual facts in this case cannot be talked about
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 10:07:21 am by pots »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #220 on: July 18, 2014, 10:09:39 am »
And the numbers behind that:
So Dickey received just over 9% of the initial offer

I read Dickey's autobiography a couple of year's ago--it was one of those well-reviewed sports books that was better than it should have been.  The chapter about what he went through in the draft is pretty well worth reading.

Aiken might start working on his knuckleball.
"I think not having the estate tax recognizes the people that are investing... as opposed to those that are just spending every darn penny they have, whether it’s on booze or women or movies.”  Charles Grassley

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #221 on: July 18, 2014, 12:54:24 pm »
3 hours till deadline and not even a peep on mlbtr about Aiken since Tuesday. 

Edit:
As noted on Astros County.  Mac Marshall has changed his reply on whether the Astros have contacted him from no to no comment.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 01:01:03 pm by pots »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #222 on: July 18, 2014, 01:37:56 pm »
People who cannot recognize a palpable absurdity are very much in the way of civilization. Agnes Rupellier

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #223 on: July 18, 2014, 01:56:14 pm »
Snarky Rosenthal weighs in.

Quote
the Astros' entire rebuilding strategy was based on "tanking" --€“ losing enough games to secure multiple "1-1s"

Nice declaration there Kenny.  Snarky indeed.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #224 on: July 18, 2014, 02:56:15 pm »
Little more than an hour left to get this done....
There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #225 on: July 18, 2014, 03:01:20 pm »
Little more than an hour left to get this done....

tick tick tick...   Aiken's camp knows what they will do.  Nix and Marshall on the other hand, likely pacing.

Though I suppose it's possible the Aiken camp isn't settled on what they will do, perhaps some soul searching going on there.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 03:02:54 pm by pots »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #226 on: July 18, 2014, 03:10:56 pm »
I just get the feeling he isn't signing.  Hopefully next years draft is loaded.
There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #227 on: July 18, 2014, 03:12:09 pm »
Ironically, this is probably the most exciting day of the season.  The excitement is not exactly positive, though.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #228 on: July 18, 2014, 03:13:21 pm »
Ironically, this is probably the most exciting day of the season.  The excitement is not exactly positive, though.

Reminds me of last week and waiting to see if Chris Bosh was signing with Houston.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #229 on: July 18, 2014, 03:13:48 pm »
I just get the feeling he isn't signing.  Hopefully next years draft is loaded.

If his worth has fallen to near nothing then this is the best outcome by far.  But if that is true then one would think he would sign.  Likely the truth is in the middle.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #230 on: July 18, 2014, 03:15:39 pm »
This is all Rodon's fault.  Had he not fallen from grace this would be somebody else's problem.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #231 on: July 18, 2014, 03:20:45 pm »
So anyone knows what has to happen for to make the deadline happy with a sign? 

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #232 on: July 18, 2014, 03:37:08 pm »
tick tick tick
Quote
Trey Mongrue @TreyMongrue
Follow

It's being reported (on Twitter) that Astros have offered Aiken $5.75m. If that's true, good news for #LSU regarding Marshall.

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #233 on: July 18, 2014, 03:38:31 pm »
Actually that would be bad news for LSU as the Stros would seemingly have enough for Marshall

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #234 on: July 18, 2014, 03:40:42 pm »
And I'd guess real good news because 5.75 million sounds like Aiken still has good value.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #235 on: July 18, 2014, 03:43:25 pm »
And I'd guess real good news because 5.75 million sounds like Aiken still has good value.
I guess.  It would also lend credence to the dicking Aiken around theory, or a total capitulation to public pressure.

ValpoCory

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #236 on: July 18, 2014, 03:43:44 pm »
lol @ Twitter

Quote
Ron @Rontrarian

Jacob Nix just favorited my tweet about UCLA's potential pitching staff. Uhh...

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #237 on: July 18, 2014, 03:44:07 pm »
So anyone knows what has to happen for to make the deadline happy with a sign? 

I'm going to guess it's Aiken signs at a number small enough that it won't hamper the team if his tiny ligament explodes and his arm falls off and gives the FO enough room to honor the $1.5 million agreement (was that ever confirmed?) with Nix and still have enough to pry Marshall out of the bayou.  That's best case scenario.  It all hinges on Aiken though, cause if he doesn't sign and the Astros lose the slot cap space, they ain't getting the other two either.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #238 on: July 18, 2014, 03:45:27 pm »
This is ridiculous.  Starting to feel like it's not happening.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #239 on: July 18, 2014, 03:46:23 pm »
I'm getting a "Will Beltran agree?" feeling about all this.

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #240 on: July 18, 2014, 03:48:22 pm »
lol @ Twitter

Ron @Rontrarian

Jacob Nix just favorited my tweet about UCLA's potential pitching staff. Uhh...

Actually looks like he did.  Interesting

roadrunner

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #241 on: July 18, 2014, 03:54:26 pm »
5 minutes

Fuck

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #242 on: July 18, 2014, 03:55:24 pm »
Take the $5.75 million and run, kid.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #243 on: July 18, 2014, 03:56:38 pm »
5 minutes

Fuck

The contract has to be in NY before 4:00 central time.  It's already done or not done at this point.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #244 on: July 18, 2014, 03:57:54 pm »
The contract has to be in NY before 4:00 central time.  It's already done or not done at this point.

SOMEBODY PLUG IN THE FAX MACHINE!

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #245 on: July 18, 2014, 03:59:58 pm »
Pencils down

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #246 on: July 18, 2014, 04:00:32 pm »
the terms may be sent by email

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #247 on: July 18, 2014, 04:00:41 pm »
ok so now let's just get confirmation that this is going to be the biggest PR nightmare of the biggest PR nightmare organization.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #248 on: July 18, 2014, 04:00:43 pm »
Pencils down

"C....C....C....C....C...."

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #249 on: July 18, 2014, 04:01:56 pm »
the terms may be sent by email

Before 5:00 NY time. 
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #250 on: July 18, 2014, 04:02:29 pm »
ok so now let's just get confirmation that this is going to be the biggest PR nightmare of the biggest PR nightmare organization.

We going to bring Purpura out of mothballs to hold the presser?

ValpoCory

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #251 on: July 18, 2014, 04:03:32 pm »
Erick Fedde (18th overall pick) signed at the buzzer. $2.5mil with the Nationals.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 04:06:12 pm by ValpoCory »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #252 on: July 18, 2014, 04:03:43 pm »
If they didn't sign him, I'm hoping it's because the Astros stood firm at 3.1 million.  That's proof that they were worried about the elbow and this wasn't a ploy to try to bring his price down to sign Marshall.  The national media is still going to give them shit, but at least the Astros did what was in their best interests.
Crazy Joe McCluskey was fucking nuts.  It's why they called him Crazy Joe.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #253 on: July 18, 2014, 04:04:45 pm »
overtime?

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #254 on: July 18, 2014, 04:06:02 pm »
If they didn't sign him, I'm hoping it's because the Astros stood firm at 3.1 million.  That's proof that they were worried about the elbow and this wasn't a ploy to try to bring his price down to sign Marshall.  The national media is still going to give them shit, but at least the Astros did what was in their best interests.

Rumor has it they offered $5.75m, which I guess they could say was, "A good faith effort to sign him in spite of lingering doubts about his long term health" or some such.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #255 on: July 18, 2014, 04:08:22 pm »
I hope that isn't true because the PR hit and possible hard feelings by Aiken down the road if he pans out wasn't worth $750k.
Crazy Joe McCluskey was fucking nuts.  It's why they called him Crazy Joe.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #256 on: July 18, 2014, 04:10:30 pm »
I hope that isn't true because the PR hit and possible hard feelings by Aiken down the road if he pans out wasn't worth $750k.

Who cares about PR? If they win: no one. If they lose: they will all be gone.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #257 on: July 18, 2014, 04:11:30 pm »
...
Quote
Jim Callis        ✔ @jimcallisMLB

Still awaiting word on @Astros & Aiken, Nix, Marshall. Suddenly less optimistic it got done than I was. @MLBDraft

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #258 on: July 18, 2014, 04:11:33 pm »
Who cares about PR? If they win: no one. If they lose: they will all be gone.

No shit.  I don't give a fuck what the mouth breathing internet bloggers think, as long as the Astros win.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

kevwun

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #259 on: July 18, 2014, 04:13:12 pm »
Personally I don't like my favorite ball club jerking around 17 year olds.  If they signed him for 750k less than what they originally agreed upon, the elbow probably isn't that much of a concern.
Crazy Joe McCluskey was fucking nuts.  It's why they called him Crazy Joe.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #260 on: July 18, 2014, 04:13:17 pm »
Callis tweeting that Marshall didn't sign

cougar

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #261 on: July 18, 2014, 04:13:39 pm »
I hope that isn't true because the PR hit and possible hard feelings by Aiken down the road if he pans out wasn't worth $750k.

I doubt Luhnow cares about Aiken's feelings, hard or otherwise.  If the $5.75m rumor is true, Luhnow is either A) the FO version of Boras re: negotiating tactics or B)legitimately concerned about the condition of Aiken's arm, but was willing to still invest a large chunk of change in the young man.  If A, Luhnow won't care, if B, Luhnow believes he did his best and move on. Plus if Aiken didn't sign, it's not like he's going to care what Aiken thinks about him 10 years down the road anyway.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 04:15:50 pm by cougar »

HudsonHawk

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #262 on: July 18, 2014, 04:14:01 pm »
Personally I don't like my favorite ball club jerking around 17 year olds.  If they signed him for 750k less than what they originally agreed upon, the elbow probably isn't that much of a concern.

What about 17 year olds jerking around you favorite ball club?  What kind of jerking *do* you like?
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #263 on: July 18, 2014, 04:14:57 pm »
I doubt Luhnow cares about Aiken's feelings, hard or otherwise. 

From what I hear, Luhnow doesn't care about anyone's feelings about anything.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #264 on: July 18, 2014, 04:15:35 pm »
I wonder if Nix and Aiken just decided to say fuck the Astros we're going to UCLA.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #265 on: July 18, 2014, 04:16:16 pm »
Well fuck.  Got nobody.  What a cluster fuck of an organization.  Not sure I can handle it anymore.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #266 on: July 18, 2014, 04:16:38 pm »
I wonder if Nix and Aiken just decided to say fuck the Astros we're going to UCLA.

Perhaps they can sit on the porch discussing what they *would* have done with the $7.5MM they collectively turned down.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #267 on: July 18, 2014, 04:17:16 pm »

Jim Callis @jimcallisMLB  ·  1m

Baseball source: @Astros did not sign Aiken or Nix either. Houston gets No. 2 overall pick next year. @MLBDraft


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Re: Aiken
« Reply #268 on: July 18, 2014, 04:17:41 pm »
I don't care the reasoning or whatever, this was a colossal fuck up by Luhnow and company.  Even I can't defend this and they are going to get absolutely torched by the media and the fans.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #269 on: July 18, 2014, 04:18:16 pm »
Jim Callis @jimcallisMLB  ·  1m

Baseball source: @Astros did not sign Aiken or Nix either. Houston gets No. 2 overall pick next year. @MLBDraft



Likely the best case scenario occurerd for the Astros after the bad news came back in the MRI
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 04:24:40 pm by pots »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #270 on: July 18, 2014, 04:19:43 pm »
I don't care the reasoning or whatever, this was a colossal fuck up by Luhnow and company.  Even I can't defend this and they are going to get absolutely torched by the media and the fans.

Do you ever stop whining?
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #271 on: July 18, 2014, 04:19:49 pm »
Can't wait to hear Crane's response.

kevwun

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #272 on: July 18, 2014, 04:20:06 pm »
If they're legitimately worried about his elbow, it was the right move.
Crazy Joe McCluskey was fucking nuts.  It's why they called him Crazy Joe.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #273 on: July 18, 2014, 04:21:33 pm »
Do you ever stop whining?


What the fuck else is there to say about this organization?  Is it really whining for me to be upset that this team just fucked up and punted a huge chunk of a draft?  Do you remember how much 2007 set the Astros back??

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #274 on: July 18, 2014, 04:21:56 pm »
I don't care the reasoning or whatever, this was a colossal fuck up by Luhnow and company.  Even I can't defend this and they are going to get absolutely torched by the media and the fans.

So, it's their fault that they couldn't give him a physical before the draft, but instead had to depend on the word of a 17 year old and a bunch of people very interested in his bottom line that he was perfectly healthy, and had to wait until after they had a verbal agreement to actually get him in to see a doctor?  I blame MLB and the player's union being unable to find a way to come up with a better way to get potential draftees physicals (have to submit a complete physical by a deadline before the draft maybe?) so teams can make informed decisions.

Yes it's going to be a PR disaster for the Astros, but it's not like they're the only ones to blame in this.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #275 on: July 18, 2014, 04:22:20 pm »
Likely the best case scenario occurerd fr the Astros after the bad news came back in the MRI

I agree.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #276 on: July 18, 2014, 04:22:25 pm »
What the fuck else is there to say about this organization?  Is it really whining for me to be upset that this team just fucked up and punted a huge chunk of a draft?  Do you remember how much 2007 set the Astros back??

Your opinion that they somehow fucked up is noted.  It's completely whacked, but noted.  You're free to move on now.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #277 on: July 18, 2014, 04:22:57 pm »
I don't care the reasoning or whatever, this was a colossal fuck up by Luhnow and company.  Even I can't defend this and they are going to get absolutely torched by the media and the fans.
If they feel that he's broken, it is the responsible move by Luhnow.  

I'm frankly surprised though. It's hard to imagine the Astros think he's totally damaged, and Aiken's camp thinks he's lost no real value. Odd disconnect, but it appears to be the case.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #278 on: July 18, 2014, 04:23:06 pm »
Split a pair of eights against a dealer's six and double both hands. The dealer then deals himself a series of small cards to total twenty one.

Even at this jerky-ass five dollar table I wonder how much longer the player can continue to sit there and get his free drinks.
Y todo lo que sube baja
pregúntale a Pedro Navaja

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #279 on: July 18, 2014, 04:24:02 pm »
If they feel that he's broken, it is the responsible move by Luhnow.  

I'm frankly surprised though. It's hard to imagine the Astros think he's totally damaged, and Aiken's camp thinks he's lost no real value. Odd disconnect, but it appears to be the case.

What on earth did you think Aiken's camp would say?
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #280 on: July 18, 2014, 04:24:32 pm »
Your opinion that they somehow fucked up is noted.  It's completely whacked, but noted.  You're free to move on now.

Considering Appel's performances, it appears Luhnow/Elias are on track to miss two 1-1's in a row.  

But sorry for being upset guys.  I'm totally out of line.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #281 on: July 18, 2014, 04:25:07 pm »
So, it's their fault that they couldn't give him a physical before the draft, but instead had to depend on the word of a 17 year old and a bunch of people very interested in his bottom line that he was perfectly healthy, and had to wait until after they had a verbal agreement to actually get him in to see a doctor?  I blame MLB and the player's union being unable to find a way to come up with a better way to get potential draftees physicals (have to submit a complete physical by a deadline before the draft maybe?) so teams can make informed decisions.

Yes it's going to be a PR disaster for the Astros, but it's not like they're the only ones to blame in this.

This whole system is broken. The lack of physicals. The slotting that ties Nix to Aiken. Ridiculous.

Navin R Johnson

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #282 on: July 18, 2014, 04:25:54 pm »
Back to back #1 overall picks nets you Mark Appel and future #2 pick.  Ugh.  Hope they hit it out of the park next draft, this one sure looks like a bust.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #283 on: July 18, 2014, 04:26:18 pm »
Considering Appel's performances, it appears Luhnow/Elias are on track to miss two 1-1's in a row.  

But sorry for being upset guys.  I'm totally out of line.

I'm sure your scouting reports were clear to the contrary, but both Appel and Aiken were solid picks at the time they were made.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #284 on: July 18, 2014, 04:27:06 pm »
This whole system is broken. The lack of physicals. The slotting that ties Nix to Aiken. Ridiculous.

The slotting doesn't tie Nix to Aiken, Nix's demand for five time over his slot does.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #285 on: July 18, 2014, 04:27:18 pm »
I'm sure your scouting reports were clear to the contrary, but both Appel and Aiken were solid picks at the time they were made.

Exactly.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #286 on: July 18, 2014, 04:28:24 pm »
I'm sure your scouting reports were clear to the contrary, but both Appel and Aiken were solid picks at the time they were made.
Bingo.
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pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #287 on: July 18, 2014, 04:29:47 pm »
The slotting doesn't tie Nix to Aiken, Nix's demand for five time over his slot does.

Though it does put a little extra pressure on Aiken.  His decision directly effected his buddy. 

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #288 on: July 18, 2014, 04:31:24 pm »
Definitely not a shining week in Houston sports.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #289 on: July 18, 2014, 04:31:35 pm »
I'm sure your scouting reports were clear to the contrary, but both Appel and Aiken were solid picks at the time they were made.

I've never claimed I wanted anyone different than who they picked.  I agreed they were good picks at the time (only saying that because the experts agreed), but they have gone horribly wrong and there's no denying that.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #290 on: July 18, 2014, 04:31:44 pm »
Though it does put a little extra pressure on Aiken.  His decision directly effected his buddy. 

Not Aiken's fault either.  Nix put himself in position where someone else's signing affected his.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #291 on: July 18, 2014, 04:32:04 pm »
I've never claimed I wanted anyone different than who they picked.  I agreed they were good picks at the time (only saying that because the experts agreed), but they have gone horribly wrong and there's no denying that.

So then you agree the Astros haven't fucked up.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #292 on: July 18, 2014, 04:33:23 pm »
Definitely not a shining week in Houston sports.

Time to just focus on Tracy McGrady's retirement.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

cougar

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #293 on: July 18, 2014, 04:36:24 pm »
Time to just focus on Tracy McGrady's retirement.

I'm sure Andre Johnson sitting at home pouting  is plenty.

pots

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #294 on: July 18, 2014, 04:37:01 pm »
One thing is for certain if Aiken goes to JUCO or indy ball and the Astros end up with 1-1 and 1-2.  He isn't getting picked in the top 2

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #295 on: July 18, 2014, 04:37:39 pm »
Your opinion that they somehow fucked up is noted.  It's completely whacked, but noted. 
You seem dumb.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #296 on: July 18, 2014, 04:40:26 pm »
You seem dumb.

Thanks for that psychoanalysis, Private Pyle.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #297 on: July 18, 2014, 04:42:25 pm »
So then you agree the Astros haven't fucked up.

I can't agree to that right now.  Especially considering reports are out that the Astros offered Aiken $5M.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #298 on: July 18, 2014, 04:42:33 pm »
You seem dumb.

Well, look who wants to be involved in the discussion, Mr. Helper!

astrosfan76

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #299 on: July 18, 2014, 04:43:59 pm »
Quote
@EvanDrellich: “We tried to engage Casey Close three times today … there was no interest” — GM Jeff Luhnow tells the Chronicle


Quote
@MarkBermanFox26: Astros GM Jeff Luhnow on team's efforts to sign Brady Aiken today: "We didn't really get any response from the other side except no."
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 04:46:05 pm by astrosfan76 »

juliogotay

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #300 on: July 18, 2014, 04:44:34 pm »
I write this with no bitterness to camp Aiken. I wish him the best of luck in receiving an offer equal to what they just turned down. Maybe they will.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #301 on: July 18, 2014, 04:45:34 pm »
So then you agree the Astros haven't fucked up.
They fucked up because they were too cheap to buy a time machine. If they weren't so cheap they would've known Appel would get knocked around like a Little Leaguer in A-ball and that Aiken's elbow had been eaten by termites.
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Navin R Johnson

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #302 on: July 18, 2014, 04:45:46 pm »
So then you agree the Astros haven't fucked up.

In terms of who they drafted, it takes some serious 2nd guessing to crap on the picks.

The results of the 2 picks to date have been a dumpster fire.  Hopefully Appel figures it out, hopefully the #2 pick next year turns into a better player than Aiken. Hope, hope, hope....

What transpired with this draft is pretty tough to critique since none of us have access to the medical records and what all went on behind the scenes.  IF they truly were scared by the medicals, then nobody can argue with passing on him for a #2 next year.   

The end result, for now sucks ass though. 
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #303 on: July 18, 2014, 04:45:48 pm »
Ok, turns out these guys are in fact idiots if they actually offered 5mm plus
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Navin R Johnson

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #304 on: July 18, 2014, 04:47:01 pm »
How so?
There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #305 on: July 18, 2014, 04:47:50 pm »
So if Luhnow offered $5M the only way he was willing to take the risk of signing Aiken was to get Nix AND Marshall, but there was no way he was willing to take the risk of signing Aiken if it was only going to be Aiken and Nix.  I guess that's how to interpret it.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #306 on: July 18, 2014, 04:48:20 pm »
So the agent wanted to play "Catch me if you can" with a team that was already half inclined to let him walk? Bold strategy,  Cotton, let's see how it plays out.

Edited to correct the "Dodgeball" misquote. Bad me!
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 04:51:03 pm by cougar »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #307 on: July 18, 2014, 04:48:48 pm »
Realized that after I posted - if they offered the max that allowed Marshall,  that makes sense
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #308 on: July 18, 2014, 04:50:50 pm »
I write this with no bitterness to camp Aiken. I wish him the best of luck in receiving an offer equal to what they just turned down. Maybe they will.

He's taking one hell of a gamble.  I think they let pride get in the way of logic.  If they offered him 5, he has to be a top 3 pick next year.  An extra year for scouts to find stuff they don't like or to get injured isn't the smart move.  
Crazy Joe McCluskey was fucking nuts.  It's why they called him Crazy Joe.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #309 on: July 18, 2014, 04:54:00 pm »
Something to think about having the #2 next year.  The player is gonna have a lot of leverage, if the Astros don't sign them they lose the pick, unlike this years #1.   I'd think you'd be better off taking a college kid there who has less options than a HSer.  Can you imagine if the somehow fail to sign the #2 guy next year?

There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #310 on: July 18, 2014, 04:56:46 pm »
He's taking one hell of a gamble.  I think they let pride get in the way of logic.  If they offered him 5, he has to be a top 3 pick next year.  An extra year for scouts to find stuff they don't like or to get injured isn't the smart move. 

More than likely, his "adviser" is a jackass.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #311 on: July 18, 2014, 05:00:50 pm »
Something to think about having the #2 next year.  The player is gonna have a lot of leverage, if the Astros don't sign them they lose the pick, unlike this years #1.   I'd think you'd be better off taking a college kid there who has less options than a HSer.  Can you imagine if the somehow fail to sign the #2 guy next year?



I'd think the pool amount is going to the asset here...in that the Astros will do an easier sign with one of the picks and spread that pool money to lock up multiple tough sign guys. 

Going to be interesting to see how the players union reacts to this.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #312 on: July 18, 2014, 05:01:38 pm »
What law school do you have to flunk out of to get that job?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #313 on: July 18, 2014, 05:03:32 pm »
What law school do you have to flunk out of to get that job?
You don't necessarily even have to go to law school to be an agent; you could take the Jay-Z path.
"Come check us out in the Game Zone. We don’t bite. Unless you say something idiotic." -Mr. Happy

Navin R Johnson

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #314 on: July 18, 2014, 05:04:06 pm »
Maybe, I just see think whoever goes #2 will demand their entire slot value.  If they do, they Astros have zero choice but to acquiesce.  Thus their pool money really isnt affected by having the #2 pick.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #315 on: July 18, 2014, 05:05:01 pm »
Going to be interesting to see how the players union reacts to this.

"Astros screwed that poor boy out of his money! They should have taken his advisor's unbiased word that he was perfectly healthy and given him everything they had left in the pool!"

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #316 on: July 18, 2014, 05:05:36 pm »
Also, things you learn from Wikipedia.  Was looking up info on Aiken's agent.  He is married to.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretchen_Carlson
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #317 on: July 18, 2014, 05:06:35 pm »
Maybe, I just see think whoever goes #2 will demand their entire slot value.  If they do, they Astros have zero choice but to acquiesce.  Thus their pool money really isnt affected by having the #2 pick.

Yeah but then they could use the other pick's pool money to go after a bunch of guys.  Or just go after a guy they really like.  I guess it isn't that much different considering they're forfeiting a pick this year.


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Re: Aiken
« Reply #318 on: July 18, 2014, 05:08:07 pm »
Luhnow makes point that if best player next year is a college player, you may not have lost time
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #319 on: July 18, 2014, 05:12:12 pm »
Maybe, I just see think whoever goes #2 will demand their entire slot value.  If they do, they Astros have zero choice but to acquiesce.  Thus their pool money really isnt affected by having the #2 pick.
Thus the importance of ascertaining signability. It's really no different from their deal with say, Correa in 2012. They knew he would sign for only $4.8m. If he had gone back on his word, they'd have lost McCullers and Ruiz and the slot money for those picks.

But just to be safe, they probably shouldn't pick a Casey Close client.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #320 on: July 18, 2014, 05:15:12 pm »
What is this shit all about....

@JeffPassan 2m
Scary Astros possibility: If Nix wins grievance to pay agreed-upon $1.5M, Houston 17% over bonus pool, would forfeit next two 1st-rd picks.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #321 on: July 18, 2014, 05:27:27 pm »
What is this shit all about....

@JeffPassan 2m
Scary Astros possibility: If Nix wins grievance to pay agreed-upon $1.5M, Houston 17% over bonus pool, would forfeit next two 1st-rd picks.
That's been out there all week.  Presumably, the Astros are confident that won't happen.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #322 on: July 18, 2014, 05:33:24 pm »
Presumably, the Astros are confident that won't happen.

Their current modeling indicates that it is highly improbable.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #323 on: July 18, 2014, 05:37:45 pm »
The penalty probably won't happen, but some things to remember:

1) Bud Selig is the commissioner
2) 2005 World Series forced roof closing
3) Home game in Milwaukee
4) Hijacking Crane's purchase to move team to AL
5) Bud Selig is the commissioner

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #324 on: July 18, 2014, 05:44:52 pm »
And MLBPA weighs in....

The Players Association issued a statement critical of the Astros, saying,“Today, two young men should be one step closer to realizing their dreams of becoming Major League ballplayers. Because of the actions of the Houston Astros, they are not. The MLBPA, the players and their advisers are exploring all legal options.”
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #325 on: July 18, 2014, 05:53:36 pm »
 As long as fucking themselves is a legal option.  Explore away union.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #326 on: July 18, 2014, 05:55:50 pm »
And MLBPA weighs in....

The Players Association issued a statement critical of the Astros, saying,“Today, two young men should be one step closer to realizing their dreams of becoming Major League ballplayers. Because of the actions of the Houston Astros, they are not. The MLBPA, the players and their advisers are exploring all legal options.”

Of course. The Players Association hates the draft, hates draft slots and wants everyone to be a free agent.  That's been their objective with Aiken all along
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #327 on: July 18, 2014, 06:00:53 pm »
Of course. The Players Association hates the draft, hates draft slots and wants everyone to be a free agent.  That's been their objective with Aiken all along

Sort of related, but the whole "what would Aiken get in the open market?" discussions are so stupid and pointless, like it matters at all to the situation.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #328 on: July 18, 2014, 06:04:39 pm »
Can the MLBPA file suit on their behalf if they're still amateur players?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #329 on: July 18, 2014, 06:05:59 pm »
He's taking one hell of a gamble.  I think they let pride get in the way of logic.  If they offered him 5, he has to be a top 3 pick next year.  An extra year for scouts to find stuff they don't like or to get injured isn't the smart move.  

Next year? Not if he goes to UCLA which is the claim.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #330 on: July 18, 2014, 06:08:46 pm »
I'd expect he ends up at a JUCO and is back in the draft next year.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #331 on: July 18, 2014, 06:28:41 pm »
http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/07/18/jeff-luhnow-on-the-failed-brady-aiken-signing-and-whats-next/Luhnow speaks.
Quote
“Basically, we tried to engage the other side, Casey Close three times today. Made three increasing offers and never received a counter, really they just never engaged, for whatever reason there was no interest. There just didn’t appear interest to sign on their side.

“Very disappointed. I think this is a player we wanted obviously we took him 1-1. You know we would have liked to have signed him and (Jacob) Nix and (Mac) Marshall, all three of ‘em. But you can’t do that without the other side wanting to be a part of it, so we move on.

“We made that offer a while back, the 40 percent offer. But we came up from that three times without ever receiving a counter.”

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #332 on: July 18, 2014, 06:32:29 pm »
So they offered 3 million a week or so ago, Aiken passed.  Then they waited until today to try to get them to accept 5 million?  Am I reading that correctly?  
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #333 on: July 18, 2014, 06:38:19 pm »
So they offered 3 million a week or so ago, Aiken passed.  Then they waited until today to try to get them to accept 5 million?  Am I reading that correctly?  

How do you know when the 3 mil was offered?  And I read the three attempts to contact today as different than the three increasing offers.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #334 on: July 18, 2014, 06:39:17 pm »
How do you know when the 3 mil was offered?  And I read the three attempts to contact today as different than the three increasing offers.

It is a quote from the article, "We made that offer a while back, the 40 percent offer."
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #335 on: July 18, 2014, 06:48:36 pm »
It really sounds like bitterness  from camp Aiken was involved as well in shutting down talks.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #336 on: July 18, 2014, 06:59:39 pm »
It really sounds like bitterness  from camp Aiken was involved as well in shutting down talks.

Well, so far we have only gotten the Astros side of the story.

From the timeline above though.  Astros offer the lowest possible signing bonus.  Make none, and receive no counter offer.

The Astros, today, decide to try and reach out again and allegedly offer more.  Maybe the agent and the kid have enough animosity that they had no business in ever working with the Astros. 

I guess since the kids advisor refused to answer calls, when the MLBPA starts asking questions the Astros can say, hey we were gonna offer 6.5, but nobody would return our calls!

 

 
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #337 on: July 18, 2014, 07:05:19 pm »
So they offered 3 million a week or so ago, Aiken passed.  Then they waited until today to try to get them to accept 5 million?  Am I reading that correctly?  

FWIW:

Quote
@JonHeymanCBS: #astros made 3 offers friday, the 2nd w/30 mins to go, the 3rd, at $5M, w/5 mins. aiken side: no counters. he just said no

He was the first to report that they had lowered their offer, but was apparently a couple of million off. So, I don't know how accurate the timeline is. But, it sounds like they were throwing hailmarys at the end.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #338 on: July 18, 2014, 07:07:30 pm »
If they were serious about offering 5 million, you don't wait until 5 minutes before the deadline to do it.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #339 on: July 18, 2014, 07:10:24 pm »
If they were serious about offering 5 million, you don't wait until 5 minutes before the deadline to do it.

I've never negotiated something in my life, but it does seem weird.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #340 on: July 18, 2014, 07:12:00 pm »
No shit.  I don't give a fuck what the mouth breathing internet bloggers think, as long as the Astros win.

+1
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #341 on: July 18, 2014, 07:40:18 pm »
Anyway, the Astros lost a lot of games to put themselves in a position so they could choose any player they wanted and then they failed to sign him. Oh yeah, no one is held accountable. Oh well, run more sims next time.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #342 on: July 18, 2014, 08:04:42 pm »
Anyway, the Astros lost a lot of games to put themselves in a position so they could choose any player they wanted and then they failed to sign him. Oh yeah, no one is held accountable. Oh well, run more sims next time.

This is a system failure.  They drafted the right guy.  The same guy they wouldn't have picked had they known of his elbow issue.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #343 on: July 18, 2014, 08:59:14 pm »
If they were serious about offering 5 million, you don't wait until 5 minutes before the deadline to do it.

If you're serious about signing, you say more than "no".
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #344 on: July 18, 2014, 09:03:57 pm »
  If they offered him 5, he has to be a top 3 pick next year.

And one of those 3 teams, his advisor just told to pound sand.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #345 on: July 18, 2014, 09:03:59 pm »
If you're serious about signing, you say more than "no".

They obviously had decided - reasonably, most likely - that they wanted nothing further to do with the Astros.

I would guess that this will become a theme.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #346 on: July 18, 2014, 09:09:02 pm »
Oh yeah, no one is held accountable. Oh well, run more sims next time.

Who exactly should be accountable for the CBA preventing them from giving him a pre-draft MRI .
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #347 on: July 18, 2014, 09:10:01 pm »
I would guess that this will become a theme.

Yes, because agents treat everything personally and never hold out for the highest bidder.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #348 on: July 18, 2014, 09:16:56 pm »
They obviously had decided - reasonably, most likely - that they wanted nothing further to do with the Astros.

I would guess that this will become a theme.

I doubt it. It's business. If they don't understand a team not wanting to pay the same price for a damaged pitcher that they were willing to pay for a healthy one then they the young man really should go further his education.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #349 on: July 18, 2014, 09:19:59 pm »
Who exactly should be accountable for the CBA preventing them from giving him a pre-draft MRI .

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #350 on: July 18, 2014, 09:34:11 pm »
Yes, because agents treat everything personally and never hold out for the highest bidder.

The next time the Astros are the highest bidder for someone you be sure to let me know.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #351 on: July 18, 2014, 09:57:34 pm »
The nadirs keep getting nad...ier.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #352 on: July 19, 2014, 12:05:17 am »
@StreetJL: So I'm clear on #Astros v Aiken: HOU says "UCL is too small, size matters." Aiken says "size doesn't matter, performance does." Thoughts?!?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #353 on: July 19, 2014, 02:36:41 am »
@StreetJL: So I'm clear on #Astros v Aiken: HOU says "UCL is too small, size matters." Aiken says "size doesn't matter, performance does." Thoughts?!?

When you're writing multi-million dollar checks, size matters. Personally, I think that the Astros dodged a bullet.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #354 on: July 19, 2014, 05:45:08 am »
Who exactly should be accountable for the CBA preventing them from giving him a pre-draft MRI .

The guy that drafted the wrong guy. He fucked up. He should have drafted someone he could sign. I realize there is risk involved and there are no sure things but when one takes a risk and it backfires, the risk taker should be accountable. The player is now the risk taker for not signing, we'll see how that works out for him.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #355 on: July 19, 2014, 06:30:11 am »
The guy that drafted the wrong guy. He fucked up. He should have drafted someone he could sign. I realize there is risk involved and there are no sure things but when one takes a risk and it backfires, the risk taker should be accountable. The player is now the risk taker for not signing, we'll see how that works out for him.

He could have signed him!  The kid was in Houston with an agreed upon number.  They did the medical and didn't like the results. They dropped their price and Aiken said no - repeatedly.   The only fault I find with the FO on this is that if he was worth their final offer on Friday at 4:55 EDT, why did they drop it so low in June.  But "hind site is 50/50"

For those who think the world is ending let me remind you of  2007. When we stuck to the MLB slotting system even though other teams were not. 

Carlos Lee and Woody Williams cost us our first two rounds picks.

We couldn't sign/ didn't offer enough to Derek Dietrich and Brett Eibner at 3 & 4.  So our 5th pick was our highest draft pick in the org that year. 

We also missed on 8th rounder Chad Bettis who we couldn't sign. 

Dietrich and Bettis are in the majors now.   Eibner is in AAA with the Royals hitting .243/.319/.382 playing mostly CF.

The only player still in affiliated ball that they did sign that year is Albert Cartwright.  He got traded to the Philiies for a reliever and is still in AA as a 26 year old. 

Our compensation pick in 2008 for not signing Dietrich was Ross Seaton (RHP) who is on the DL at AAA OK City.   

That my friends is a draft that is the end of the world.  We won't know how bad this situation is for several more years.  When they took a HS pitcher as 1-1, everyone talked about how risky it was.  Nobody thought the risk would come at the medical.  I would advise folks to take a few deep breaths. 

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #356 on: July 19, 2014, 07:20:17 am »
The guy that drafted the wrong guy. He fucked up. He should have drafted someone he could sign. I realize there is risk involved and there are no sure things but when one takes a risk and it backfires, the risk taker should be accountable. The player is now the risk taker for not signing, we'll see how that works out for him.
So you're saying Luhnow fucked up by not being able to see the future and know that Aiken had a bizarre elbow issue?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #357 on: July 19, 2014, 08:15:42 am »
So you're saying Luhnow fucked up by not being able to see the future and know that Aiken had a bizarre elbow issue?

Given that he crossed out the only meaningful part of my question, yes, he is.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #358 on: July 19, 2014, 08:40:06 am »
You don't necessarily even have to go to law school to be an agent; you could take the Jay-Z path.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #359 on: July 19, 2014, 08:53:18 am »
The guy that drafted the wrong guy. He fucked up. He should have drafted someone he could sign. I realize there is risk involved and there are no sure things but when one takes a risk and it backfires, the risk taker should be accountable. The player is now the risk taker for not signing, we'll see how that works out for him.

SD, you are full of shit on this one. The Astros did everything right. These things have happened before. And they'll probably happen again as long as the current system is in place. In my opinion, the Astros were being magnanimous in offering 40% for damaged goods. I know why they did that: to at least get the comp No. 2 next year. In my opinion, the kid made a big mistake in not signing. Not only is his college eligibility in doubt because of his association with Close, but clubs are going to remember this for next year or whenever he is draft-eligible. He's not going to be able to hide the problem. The cat is out of the bag. I'll be damn surprised if next year he gets anywhere close to what the Astros offered him this year.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2014, 09:24:03 am by Mr. Happy »
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #360 on: July 19, 2014, 09:00:35 am »
Juco seems like a better idea than 3 years at UCLA.  He has a great year next season at a juco and he might actually be a top 3 pick.  Do that at UCLA and he's got to maintain that for 2 more years or at least the final year before he's draft eligible.  Look what happened with Rodon.  He had a great sophomore season and was everyone's number one going in to this year.  He only had a really, really good year and he dropped.  Granted it wasn't a big drop, but Aiken can't fall more than a couple spots without costing himself money.  Add the elbow questions to that and he's going to have to be real lucky to be picked this high again.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2014, 09:03:39 am by kevwun »
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #361 on: July 19, 2014, 09:11:06 am »
His best case is he plays really well and gets the same money he turned down. Worst case is he has a hell of a story to tell his co-workers at Burger King. Unbelievable choice for an 18 year old to make.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #362 on: July 19, 2014, 09:31:20 am »
Wish he would have signed. Also wish Lunhow would have drafted Rodon, but that was just personal preference because he was older and seemingly closer to the bigs. Either way, it looks almost certain, barring a big winning streak, that the Astros will have 2 of the top 5 picks in the draft next year. How does that affect their slot money?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #363 on: July 19, 2014, 10:01:15 am »
Juco seems like a better idea than 3 years at UCLA.  He has a great year next season at a juco and he might actually be a top 3 pick.  Do that at UCLA and he's got to maintain that for 2 more years or at least the final year before he's draft eligible.  Look what happened with Rodon.  He had a great sophomore season and was everyone's number one going in to this year.  He only had a really, really good year and he dropped.  Granted it wasn't a big drop, but Aiken can't fall more than a couple spots without costing himself money.  Add the elbow questions to that and he's going to have to be real lucky to be picked this high again.

There is all sorts of stuff on-line questioning eligibility issues now with Aiken and Nix from the NCAA. This could get really interesting and I hope it doesn't come to that. There will be grievances filed that could lead to free agency perhaps. Someone speculated the Astros could be forced legally to sign Nix to the verbal offer they made to him which would put them over the cap and cost two draft picks next year. Wouldn't that be a kick in the gonads.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #364 on: July 19, 2014, 10:02:25 am »
Wish he would have signed. Also wish Lunhow would have drafted Rodon, but that was just personal preference because he was older and seemingly closer to the bigs. Either way, it looks almost certain, barring a big winning streak, that the Astros will have 2 of the top 5 picks in the draft next year. How does that affect their slot money?

Their allotment will reflect money for both picks.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #365 on: July 19, 2014, 10:47:30 am »
His best case is he plays really well and gets the same money he turned down. Worst case is he has a hell of a story to tell his co-workers at Burger King. Unbelievable choice for an 18 year old to make.

Nah. Smart kid with money and good looks, his future looks fine, even without baseball.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #366 on: July 19, 2014, 10:48:52 am »
Nah. Smart kid with money and good looks, his future looks fine, even without baseball.

Right, I did fine without baseball.  And without money and good looks, for that matter.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #367 on: July 19, 2014, 10:57:15 am »
He could have signed him!  The kid was in Houston with an agreed upon number.  They did the medical and didn't like the results. They dropped their price and Aiken said no - repeatedly.   The only fault I find with the FO on this is that if he was worth their final offer on Friday at 4:55 EDT, why did they drop it so low in June.  But "hind site is 50/50"


The 4:55 and the fact that Luhnow decided to go on vacation and was in Mexico while this was all going down.

I realize there are phones in Mexico too, but it sure doesn't reflect a real sense of urgency when the GM is off at the beach while they are trying to sign their #1 pick. 

It does lead me to believe that the Astros were truly distressed by the results of the MRI and really had no intention of signing Aiken.  Which if true, was absolutely the right thing to do.

This is kinda how I think it went down yesterday, despite the bad medicals, the Astros decied lets roll the dice and offer 5 mil, just so we can sign Marshall and Nix, and maybe avoid some bad PR... so they went ahead and upped the 3 mil offer on the last day.  But at that point it appears the Aiken/Close wanted nothing to do with this organization and decided to pass.

At the end of the day, nobody in the industry thought drafting Aiken was a bad idea.

If this was any other Org, nobody would've questioned the "process," or the medical reports.  But with this front office's smartest guys in the room persona, and attempts to "game" the slotting rules (which is a BS claim), all hell broke loose.  Lots of folks don't like Luhnow and co.  I am 100% positive if this same thing happened and it was the Red Sox instead of the Astros, there wouldn't be 1/10th of the stink raised from the media and MLBPA.

At the end of the day, we are about 5 years from knowing if they did the right thing.  If Aiken gets taken top 5 next year and turns into an all-star the Astros are gonna look pretty bad, or at least whoever they were taking medical advice from does.  If he ends up injured, they look really smart.



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Re: Aiken
« Reply #368 on: July 19, 2014, 11:01:36 am »
Juco seems like a better idea than 3 years at UCLA.  He has a great year next season at a juco and he might actually be a top 3 pick.  Do that at UCLA and he's got to maintain that for 2 more years or at least the final year before he's draft eligible.  Look what happened with Rodon.  He had a great sophomore season and was everyone's number one going in to this year.  He only had a really, really good year and he dropped.  Granted it wasn't a big drop, but Aiken can't fall more than a couple spots without costing himself money.  Add the elbow questions to that and he's going to have to be real lucky to be picked this high again.

It was Rodon's freshman season that put him on he map. He had a slow start his sophomore season, which was pushed aside at the time as being a result of not pitching that fall and being rusty. His ERA was over three that season. I would agree that he didn't have a great junior season, though and admittedly wasn't his biggest fan. I was disappointed that he didn't wow this year because I was hoping for a homerun at 1/1, like he was supposed to be.

The elbow looks like it will be a catch-22 for him. The longer he pitches well, the better it looks for its durability, if you want to prove that it will hold up. On the other hand, the longer he pitches, the argument can be made that he is that much closer to falling apart, giving a club fewer years of production from him. Of course, he may never have problems, or they may not happen for 10-15 years, but it's a gamble.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #369 on: July 19, 2014, 11:22:28 am »
It will be fascinating following Aiken over the next few years.  If he goes JUCO there's a good chance the Rangers will have the opportunity to draft him next year.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #370 on: July 19, 2014, 11:25:37 am »
Don't be so literal
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #371 on: July 19, 2014, 11:29:23 am »
It will be fascinating following Aiken over the next few years. 

Agree.  Mr Happy brought up a really good point about his medicals.  It will be very interesting if other teams believe the Astros, where Aiken goes next year (assuming he goes JUCO) will say something to the veracity of the Astros doctors' medical opinions.

So does Aiken allow teams to test him prior to the draft?  Is that even allowed? 
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #372 on: July 19, 2014, 11:34:51 am »
Agree.  Mr Happy brought up a really good point about his medicals.  It will be very interesting if other teams believe the Astros, where Aiken goes next year (assuming he goes JUCO) will say something to the veracity of the Astros doctors' medical opinions.

So does Aiken allow teams to test him prior to the draft?  Is that even allowed? 

I'm sure someone will take a chance on him in the top 10, with or without a UCL.

I know the entire argument and have eased my knee-jerk reaction shitting on the Astros FO, but I still keep wondering if any other team would've let all of this happen.  Who knows.  Move on I guess.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #373 on: July 19, 2014, 12:14:36 pm »
Don't be so literal

No problem, just don't be so hyperbolic.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #374 on: July 19, 2014, 12:37:26 pm »
I'm sure someone will take a chance on him in the top 10, with or without a UCL.

I seriously doubt it. Without a UCL, he better start learning the knuckleball.

Quote
I know the entire argument and have eased my knee-jerk reaction shitting on the Astros FO, but I still keep wondering if any other team would've let all of this happen.  Who knows.  Move on I guess.

Other clubs may not have gambled on a high schooler. However, without an opportunity to kick the tires prior to the draft, every club could have made this mistake. As I said, it's happened before, and it'll probably happen again.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #375 on: July 19, 2014, 12:51:41 pm »
I seriously doubt it. Without a UCL, he better start learning the knuckleball.

Other clubs may not have gambled on a high schooler. However, without an opportunity to kick the tires prior to the draft, every club could have made this mistake. As I said, it's happened before, and it'll probably happen again.

Sorry, is it clear now that something was wrong with his UCL?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #376 on: July 19, 2014, 01:26:08 pm »
Sorry, is it clear now that something was wrong with his UCL?

No. That's still just speculation. However, if his test was clear, don't you think that his camp would have floated the pictures to the public? Something jolted the Astros about his arm.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #377 on: July 19, 2014, 01:26:37 pm »
Sorry, is it clear now that something was wrong with his UCL?

I don't think we'll ever know unless Aiken's camp releases the information.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #378 on: July 19, 2014, 01:59:47 pm »
No. That's still just speculation. However, if his test was clear, don't you think that his camp would have floated the pictures to the public? Something jolted the Astros about his arm.

Precisely. It appears that the Astros leaked some information to Evan Drellich earlier this week that hinted at big red flags with his elbow. The fact that the source characterized it as a "cut-and-dry issue" means there's most likely something substantive (a small to non-existent UCL) to that medical report. We can presume those results were shared with Aiken and Casey Close, who didn't hesitate to slam the organization and reveal details about their contract offers. It stands to reason that had Dr. Andrews or the other two independent specialists who examined him disagreed with Dr. Lintner's finding, we would have heard about it. However, all we heard from Close was "5 doctors have proven that he's not currently injured and is ready to pitch." No shit, counselor. But what about the UCL? Does he even have one?


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Re: Aiken
« Reply #380 on: July 19, 2014, 02:22:50 pm »
What is bothering me more is that the last offer came in five minutes before the deadline.  If the Astros were going to go to 5M, why not do it right after his physical instead of penny pinching?  From what I understand, Nix and Marshall could have both been signed with Aiken only getting 5M. 

Stepping over dollars to pick up a dime....

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #381 on: July 19, 2014, 02:23:24 pm »
I don't think we'll ever know unless Aiken's camp releases the information.

And I'd doubt seriously that teams are going to take a chance on him with a top 5 pick next year unless he agrees to show them his medicals... And if they are really iffy (which my WAG says they are), then he won't be a top 5 pick next year (or ever) either...
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #382 on: July 19, 2014, 02:28:08 pm »
What is bothering me more is that the last offer came in five minutes before the deadline.  If the Astros were going to go to 5M, why not do it right after his physical instead of penny pinching?  From what I understand, Nix and Marshall could have both been signed with Aiken only getting 5M. 

Stepping over dollars to pick up a dime....


What part of Aiken turning down the $5MM is confusing you?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #383 on: July 19, 2014, 02:37:27 pm »
If they offered 5 million, 5 minutes to the deadline, that sure seems like they would have risked not having time to get the paperwork in for the other 2 guys in time.  What if Aiken said at 3:59, OK I take it? 

Why in the world not offer the 5 Mil at least by 3PM?  Doesn't make any sense.  Must me more to this.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #384 on: July 19, 2014, 02:43:01 pm »
If they offered 5 million, 5 minutes to the deadline, that sure seems like they would have risked not having time to get the paperwork in for the other 2 guys in time.  What if Aiken said at 3:59, OK I take it? 

Why in the world not offer the 5 Mil at least by 3PM?  Doesn't make any sense.  Must me more to this.

I've read a variety of reports that seem to indicate a range of offers from 3.2MM to the initial 6.5MM and those were all before yesterday. Luhnow reportedly contacted Close multiple times on Friday so I'm sure they made that offer well before the deadline.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #385 on: July 19, 2014, 02:44:49 pm »
If they offered 5 million, 5 minutes to the deadline, that sure seems like they would have risked not having time to get the paperwork in for the other 2 guys in time.  What if Aiken said at 3:59, OK I take it? 

Why in the world not offer the 5 Mil at least by 3PM?  Doesn't make any sense.  Must me more to this.

What on earth makes you think the Astros did nothing until 3:55 yesterday?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #386 on: July 19, 2014, 02:52:05 pm »
Close yells at Luhnow

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24627331/brady-aikens-adviser-rips-astros-as-team-cant-reach-deal-with-picks

Fuck Close. He lost a fat little payday with his snit fit and failed brinksmanship and Nix should be blaming him. Fuck Close and his Borasetic whining. Goddamn mouthpieces.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #387 on: July 19, 2014, 02:55:09 pm »
If they offered 5 million, 5 minutes to the deadline, that sure seems like they would have risked not having time to get the paperwork in for the other 2 guys in time.  What if Aiken said at 3:59, OK I take it? 

Why in the world not offer the 5 Mil at least by 3PM?  Doesn't make any sense.  Must me more to this.

3:55 doesn't mean shit. If the paperwork is in motion, there are contingencies in MLB to allow some carryover. It's not a problem if the sides agree, they just didn't on this last Hail Mary.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #388 on: July 19, 2014, 03:06:33 pm »
What on earth makes you think the Astros did nothing until 3:55 yesterday?

I never said they did nothing.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #389 on: July 19, 2014, 03:07:05 pm »
3:55 doesn't mean shit. If the paperwork is in motion, there are contingencies in MLB to allow some carryover. It's not a problem if the sides agree, they just didn't on this last Hail Mary.

Thanks, i figured there had to be more to that.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #390 on: July 19, 2014, 03:18:11 pm »
I'm really not understanding how the Aikens let pride get in the way of life-changing money. Maybe they're rich already, but to any reasonable person $5MM is a lot of money to walk away from. Certainly there has to be truth to the medical reports or Close would also be protesting the actual reports rather than  just berating Luhnow for letting that information get out. In that case there's no fucking way this kid ever gets drafted anywhere close to the first overall pick, so he just pissed away the best offer he's going to get. All for what? To extend a middle finger to the Houston Astros?

If the Astros were wrong and Aiken's UCL is perfectly normal and not unusual, wouldn't they be risking a pretty big lawsuit talking about that? Where there's smoke, there's fire so I think we can safely assume his UCL is going to be a significant issue for any prospective buyer. What a disaster. Close really fucked him.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #391 on: July 19, 2014, 03:23:03 pm »
Thanks, i figured there had to be more to that.

Consider the source of that idiotic report. /Heyman

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #392 on: July 19, 2014, 03:44:25 pm »

What part of Aiken turning down the $5MM is confusing you?

I get that he said no, but he had 5 minutes to say no.  Why not offer it three hours ahead of time?  What's the point of making an offer five minutes prior to the deadline?  It's either they didn't want him at that price and just wanted it to be known they offered 5M (sort of make sense, I guess), or they were just playing chicken with the kid over 1-2M (which is outrageous and not worth it).

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #393 on: July 19, 2014, 03:47:11 pm »
I get that he said no, but he had 5 minutes to say no.  Why not offer it three hours ahead of time?  What's the point of making an offer five minutes prior to the deadline?  It's either they didn't want him at that price and just wanted it to be known they offered 5M (sort of make sense, I guess), or they were just playing chicken with the kid over 1-2M (which is outrageous and not worth it).

Stop listening to Jon Heyman. They made offers well before the deadline, Close shut them down.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #394 on: July 19, 2014, 03:50:40 pm »
Stop listening to Jon Heyman. They made offers well before the deadline, Close shut them down.

Are we just assuming the 5 minutes before the deadline rumor is BS? 

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #395 on: July 19, 2014, 03:59:03 pm »
Are we just assuming the 5 minutes before the deadline rumor is BS? 

Quote
“Basically, we tried to engage the other side, Casey Close three times today. Made three increasing offers and never received a counter, really they just never engaged, for whatever reason there was no interest. There just didn’t appear interest to sign on their side.

“Very disappointed. I think this is a player we wanted obviously we took him 1-1. You know we would have liked to have signed him and (Jacob) Nix and (Mac) Marshall, all three of ‘em. But you can’t do that without the other side wanting to be a part of it, so we move on.

“We made that offer a while back, the 40 percent offer. But we came up from that three times without ever receiving a counter.”

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/07/18/jeff-luhnow-on-the-failed-brady-aiken-signing-and-whats-next/#24048103=0&25194101=0

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #397 on: July 19, 2014, 04:23:27 pm »
Drellich's report doesn't explain the timing of the offers

So you're just going to take the viewpoint that these offers were all at the very last minute on the basis of a Jon Heyman article? Regardless, I remember reading a chron article earlier this week that said the Astros had supposedly made an offer of 5MM. That was well before the deadline, so yeah I think this "3:55" line you're buying into is total crap. 

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #398 on: July 19, 2014, 05:28:11 pm »
So you're just going to take the viewpoint that these offers were all at the very last minute on the basis of a Jon Heyman article? Regardless, I remember reading a chron article earlier this week that said the Astros had supposedly made an offer of 5MM. That was well before the deadline, so yeah I think this "3:55" line you're buying into is total crap. 

I hope you're right

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #399 on: July 19, 2014, 05:37:45 pm »
How does one not counter?  Isn't that how negotiations work?  Seems to me when you don't counter (even with your original number) you've decided you don't want to do business with the other party.  I hope the Astros did the right thing and are being honest about the negotiations because us fans have been watching this 1st pick kind of team too long.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #400 on: July 19, 2014, 05:47:35 pm »
I hope you're right
I don't see why it matters if they did up their offer to $5m 5 mins before the deadline. Aiken/Close either had a number in mind they were willing to say Yes to, or they didn't. They'd had weeks to think about this shit; it's not like it had never crossed their minds before whether they would accept $5m. Isn't raising your offer at the last minute kind of a common thing in high-stakes negotiations?

Frankly, I'm kinda surprised they went that high, but I suspect it boils down to they felt the risk on Aiken was worth it only if they could also get both Nix AND Marshall. And $5m was about as high as they could go and do that, if Marshall's price had gone up to $2m or so.

We also don't know how involved Crane was. Maybe Luhnow and co were planning to hold firm at $4m or whatever, and Crane panicked at the last minute and told them to offer 5. I hope not, but who knows.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #401 on: July 19, 2014, 05:59:28 pm »
Reuben, I completely agree with you.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #402 on: July 19, 2014, 06:12:31 pm »
We also don't know how involved Crane was. Maybe Luhnow and co were planning to hold firm at $4m or whatever, and Crane panicked at the last minute and told them to offer 5. I hope not, but who knows.
That's a good point.

Even though it has been rationalized, the willingness to offer 5 million seems at odds with Luhnow's reputation as a calculating asset manager.  Instead, it looks like a reaction to public image.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #403 on: July 19, 2014, 06:17:20 pm »
I can't help but think the Aiken's felt the Astros should have stuck to their original offer of 6.5 million. They probably resented it being reduced on a speculative situation. They didn't want to negotiate, they wanted the Astros to honor the initial offer. It's a position they may one day regret.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #404 on: July 19, 2014, 06:52:16 pm »
I can't help but think the Aiken's felt the Astros should have stuck to their original offer of 6.5 million. They probably resented it being reduced on a speculative situation. They didn't want to negotiate, they wanted the Astros to honor the initial offer. It's a position they may one day regret.

The eerie feeling is that no sane person would turn down the 5 million.  Which could mean they have something else planned.  Maybe they are sitting on evidence that the Astros organization leaked medical information.  Maybe they feel they have enough backing to make Aiken a free agent.  Who knows

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #405 on: July 19, 2014, 07:26:59 pm »
I've never negotiated something in my life, but it does seem weird.

I have done plenty of negotiations and it is pretty simple, if you really want something you will find a way.  If you don't, you don't.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #406 on: July 19, 2014, 10:37:29 pm »
I can't help but think the Aiken's felt the Astros should have stuck to their original offer of 6.5 million. They probably resented it being reduced on a speculative situation. They didn't want to negotiate, they wanted the Astros to honor the initial offer. It's a position they may one day regret.

If so, then who is responsible?  Under this situation, wouldn't Mejdal be responsible since he is the guru of decision sciences?

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #407 on: July 20, 2014, 02:59:00 am »
If so, then who is responsible?  Under this situation, wouldn't Mejdal be responsible since he is the guru of decision sciences?

The answer is that no one is responsible. The system failed. That's it.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #408 on: July 20, 2014, 06:28:12 am »
So you're saying Luhnow fucked up by not being able to see the future and know that Aiken had a bizarre elbow issue?

True, he didn't know he was drafting potentially damaged goods. But the bizarre elbow issue has never been a problem, may never be. And Luhnow is acting as if he can see into the future, he's saying there is likely going to be a problem. Like a baseball version of Minority Report.

Unless the initial offer went something like this, "We will give you a 6.5 million dollar signing bonus as long as we don't come up with a scenario about a potential medical problem that might or might not manifest itself in the future, if that is the case, we'll have to reduce the signing bonus to a much lower dollar figure." Then yes, I am saying Luhnow fucked up. If the kid turns out to be a good MLB player in spite of his bizarre elbow issue, then Luhnow really fucked up. If he blows up his elbow and can't pitch, then Luhnow's fuck up isn't as bad. 


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Re: Aiken
« Reply #409 on: July 20, 2014, 07:13:48 am »
True, he didn't know he was drafting potentially damaged goods. But the bizarre elbow issue has never been a problem, may never be. And Luhnow is acting as if he can see into the future, he's saying there is likely going to be a problem. Like a baseball version of Minority Report.

Unless the initial offer went something like this, "We will give you a 6.5 million dollar signing bonus as long as we don't come up with a scenario about a potential medical problem that might or might not manifest itself in the future, if that is the case, we'll have to reduce the signing bonus to a much lower dollar figure." Then yes, I am saying Luhnow fucked up. If the kid turns out to be a good MLB player in spite of his bizarre elbow issue, then Luhnow really fucked up. If he blows up his elbow and can't pitch, then Luhnow's fuck up isn't as bad. 




The offer was contingent on passing a physical, which Aiken didn't. I think that you're letting your other seething hatred of Luhnow cloud your thinking on this one. He didn't fuck up at all. Had we taken someone else at 1-1, Aiken would have been taken in the next two or three picks, and this discovery would have been made by some other club. It was bad luck, but it wasn't a fuckup.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #410 on: July 20, 2014, 07:21:53 am »
The offer was contingent on passing a physical, which Aiken didn't. I think that you're letting your other seething hatred of Luhnow cloud your thinking on this one. He didn't fuck up at all. Had we taken someone else at 1-1, Aiken would have been taken in the next two or three picks, and this discovery would have been made by some other club. It was bad luck, but it wasn't a fuckup.

Right.  Luhnow wasn't acting in a bubble.  The team doctors flunked Aiken.  Luhnow acted accordingly.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #411 on: July 20, 2014, 08:48:55 am »
The offer was contingent on passing a physical, which Aiken didn't. I think that you're letting your other seething hatred of Luhnow cloud your thinking on this one. He didn't fuck up at all. Had we taken someone else at 1-1, Aiken would have been taken in the next two or three picks, and this discovery would have been made by some other club. It was bad luck, but it wasn't a fuckup.

Right, bad luck. Like the history of the Cubs. Like the kind of bad luck that caused the Astros to have three 100 loss seasons in a row. No part of a plan that went awry. No accountability.

I was not aware of any contingency and I don't know that Aiken's camp was either. If so that's a shitty way of negotiating. We're prepared to offer x but only if you meet our criteria which will be determined by us. I understand any residual resentment. Maybe, Aiken's people knew he had an issue and were hoping the Astros would overlook it, but their behavior says otherwise.

I'm not in love with the man but I don't hate Luhnow, I hate seeing the Astros continue to lose. This is just another example of them not succeeding. If another club picked him and came to the same conclusion, it would have been them that got fucked. Look I get that the Astros couldn't help it, but how is not signing three draft picks not getting fucked? They didn't intend to fuck-up but they did. If a bind man walks into a door, it's unfortunate that he didn't see the door, and maybe the guy that closed it is partly to blame, but the blind guy still got fucked by the door.

Anyway one looks at it, regardless of who's to blame or not to blame, the Astros draft was far less fruitful than intended. I guess that's cool with the Kool-aid drinkers because the Astros tried to draft well, luck just wasn't on their side. They get an A for effort, and a F for results.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #412 on: July 20, 2014, 08:52:31 am »
Right, bad luck. Like the history of the Cubs. Like the kind of bad luck that caused the Astros to have three 100 loss seasons in a row. No part of a plan that went awry. No accountability.

I was not aware of any contingency and I don't know that Aiken's camp was either. If so that's a shitty way of negotiating. We're prepared to offer x but only if you meet our criteria which will be determined by us. I understand any residual resentment. Maybe, Aiken's people knew he had an issue and were hoping the Astros would overlook it, but their behavior says otherwise.

I'm not in love with the man but I don't hate Luhnow, I hate seeing the Astros continue to lose. This is just another example of them not succeeding. If another club picked him and came to the same conclusion, it would have been them that got fucked. Look I get that the Astros couldn't help it, but how is not signing three draft picks not getting fucked? They didn't intend to fuck-up but they did. If a bind man walks into a door, it's unfortunate that he didn't see the door, and maybe the guy that closed it is partly to blame, but the blind guy still got fucked by the door.

Anyway one looks at it, regardless of who's to blame or not to blame, the Astros draft was far less fruitful than intended. I guess that's cool with the Kool-aid drinkers because the Astros tried to draft well, luck just wasn't on their side. They get an A for effort, and a F for results.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #413 on: July 20, 2014, 09:00:43 am »
Close was playing word games in his first comments after the elbow info got out.  If Aiken's elbow was normal, he would have never said asymptomatic.  That's the key word in this whole deal because it confirms there's something not normal about the elbow, but that Aiken currently has no symptoms of problems from that issue.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #414 on: July 20, 2014, 09:27:13 am »
I was not aware of any contingency and I don't know that Aiken's camp was either. If so that's a shitty way of negotiating. We're prepared to offer x but only if you meet our criteria which will be determined by us. I understand any residual resentment. Maybe, Aiken's people knew he had an issue and were hoping the Astros would overlook it, but their behavior says otherwise.

Oh come on.  Every single contract offer is contingent upon passing the physical.  Every.  Single.  One.  It's been that way for decades, and everyone one on both sides knows this.


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Re: Aiken
« Reply #415 on: July 20, 2014, 09:36:53 am »
Reuben, I completely agree with you.

Reuben often is a voice of reason.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #416 on: July 20, 2014, 10:03:36 am »
Oh come on.  Every single contract offer is contingent upon passing the physical.  Every.  Single.  One.  It's been that way for decades, and everyone one on both sides knows this.




As noted with R.A. Dickey, this isn't the first time that a high profile draftee has lost contract value after drafting because of an elbow issue.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #417 on: July 20, 2014, 10:14:16 am »
Right, bad luck. Like the history of the Cubs. Like the kind of bad luck that caused the Astros to have three 100 loss seasons in a row. No part of a plan that went awry. No accountability.

I was not aware of any contingency and I don't know that Aiken's camp was either. If so that's a shitty way of negotiating. We're prepared to offer x but only if you meet our criteria which will be determined by us. I understand any residual resentment. Maybe, Aiken's people knew he had an issue and were hoping the Astros would overlook it, but their behavior says otherwise.

I'm not in love with the man but I don't hate Luhnow, I hate seeing the Astros continue to lose. This is just another example of them not succeeding. If another club picked him and came to the same conclusion, it would have been them that got fucked. Look I get that the Astros couldn't help it, but how is not signing three draft picks not getting fucked? They didn't intend to fuck-up but they did. If a bind man walks into a door, it's unfortunate that he didn't see the door, and maybe the guy that closed it is partly to blame, but the blind guy still got fucked by the door.

Anyway one looks at it, regardless of who's to blame or not to blame, the Astros draft was far less fruitful than intended. I guess that's cool with the Kool-aid drinkers because the Astros tried to draft well, luck just wasn't on their side. They get an A for effort, and a F for results.

This is sort of what I've been trying to say.  I just can't give Luhnow a free pass for this because aw shucks the system failed.  There are multiple parties to blame, but the bottom line is the Astros got fucked again.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #418 on: July 20, 2014, 10:26:28 am »
Right, bad luck. Like the history of the Cubs. Like the kind of bad luck that caused the Astros to have three 100 loss seasons in a row. No part of a plan that went awry. No accountability.

I was not aware of any contingency and I don't know that Aiken's camp was either. If so that's a shitty way of negotiating. We're prepared to offer x but only if you meet our criteria which will be determined by us. I understand any residual resentment. Maybe, Aiken's people knew he had an issue and were hoping the Astros would overlook it, but their behavior says otherwise.

I'm not in love with the man but I don't hate Luhnow, I hate seeing the Astros continue to lose. This is just another example of them not succeeding. If another club picked him and came to the same conclusion, it would have been them that got fucked. Look I get that the Astros couldn't help it, but how is not signing three draft picks not getting fucked? They didn't intend to fuck-up but they did. If a bind man walks into a door, it's unfortunate that he didn't see the door, and maybe the guy that closed it is partly to blame, but the blind guy still got fucked by the door.

Anyway one looks at it, regardless of who's to blame or not to blame, the Astros draft was far less fruitful than intended. I guess that's cool with the Kool-aid drinkers because the Astros tried to draft well, luck just wasn't on their side. They get an A for effort, and a F for results.

You've got to be fucking kidding me. You didn't know about the "physical" contingency? Get real. Every contract has this contingency. Players fail physicals all of the time. The Astros have had their share of bad luck. Look, I'm not happy with the present state of the club, and I also don't want another 1-1 pick. But I find no fault on the part of the front office, and I'm certainly no kool-aid drinker. I'm all for canning Porter right now.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #419 on: July 20, 2014, 10:28:15 am »
Welcome to the world of the major league draft and prospect development.

Exactly. It's a lot like farming. Some crops are successful; some aren't.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #420 on: July 20, 2014, 10:32:20 am »
Exactly. It's a lot like farming. Some crops are successful; some aren't.
Some farmer's plans work out, some don't.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #421 on: July 20, 2014, 11:06:17 am »
Some farmer's plans work out, some don't.

I know that you're trying to pin some blame on Luhnow for this, but it just isn't there. This failure was something that Luhnow has no knowledge of and couldn't control. In a perfect world, the physical might have been done before the offer was made.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #422 on: July 20, 2014, 11:13:21 am »
Reuben often is a voice of reason.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #423 on: July 20, 2014, 11:15:31 am »
Not that it would have mattered, but given what we know about Aiken's dedication to becoming a MLB pitcher - personal pitching coach, nutritionist, trainer, etc... - how likely was it that he'd had an MRI at some point and they knew about his elbow issue?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #424 on: July 20, 2014, 11:22:59 am »
I'd guess he would have only had an elbow MRI if he'd had pain in his elbow that didn't respond to some other kind of treatment.  It's probably automatic at every twinge for MLB players, but no so much for your average sports doctor.  They would do other things first.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #425 on: July 20, 2014, 11:24:10 am »
Some farmer's plans work out, some don't.

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #426 on: July 20, 2014, 11:38:42 am »
i like the rain we have been getting in austin. can you send more
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #427 on: July 20, 2014, 12:32:47 pm »
This may be the first time in my life that someone has accused me of this. Do I have your permission to put that on a framed plaque and hang it in my house?

I will send you a release.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #428 on: July 20, 2014, 12:40:32 pm »
I know that you're trying to pin some blame on Luhnow for this, but it just isn't there. This failure was something that Luhnow has no knowledge of and couldn't control. In a perfect world, the physical might have been done before the offer was made.

Or before the pick was made when it should have been.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #429 on: July 20, 2014, 12:59:26 pm »
Some farmer's plans work out, some don't.
Some farmers are better than others, but if your seeds never germinate your farm is fucked.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #430 on: July 20, 2014, 07:01:28 pm »
Some farmers are better than others, but if your seeds never germinate your farm is fucked.

Which is why you plant a shit load of seeds

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #431 on: July 20, 2014, 07:26:34 pm »
The Astros should have plenty of fertilizer.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #432 on: July 20, 2014, 10:39:48 pm »
Or before the pick was made when it should have been.
There are no pre draft physicals in baseball.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #433 on: July 21, 2014, 01:15:39 am »
Had forgotten this until lately, but not only did the Marlins not attempt to modify a bonus offer (1.6 M), but they withrew the offer entirely last year with the thirty fifth pick of the draft after Matt Krook failed his physical exam.

Time for everyone to stop vilifying the astros....just our back luck that it occured with a 1-1 pick.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #434 on: July 21, 2014, 05:06:03 am »
Had forgotten this until lately, but not only did the Marlins not attempt to modify a bonus offer (1.6 M), but they withrew the offer entirely last year with the thirty fifth pick of the draft after Matt Krook failed his physical exam.

Actually, the Marlins did make the 40% qualifying offer to Krook (or roughly $650,000) which he turned down. That allowed Miami to receive the 36th pick in this year's draft as compensation.

Krook then honored his original commitment to U of Oregon and was pitching well this past season (leading the Pac 12 in strikeouts at the time) until...he tore his UCL and had to undergo TJS.


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Re: Aiken
« Reply #435 on: July 21, 2014, 05:15:34 am »
Actually, the Marlins did make the 40% qualifying offer to Krook (or roughly $650,000) which he turned down. That allowed Miami to receive the 36th pick in this year's draft as compensation.

Krook then honored his original commitment to U of Oregon and was pitching well this past season (leading the Pac 12 in strikeouts at the time) until...he tore his UCL and had to undergo TJS.



Wow...foggy memory, but logic says one would at least offer the 40% to not lose the pick. 

Thanks for the correction and update.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #436 on: July 21, 2014, 07:23:34 am »
Interesting point but the Marlins are not exactly the model organization.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #437 on: July 21, 2014, 07:26:03 am »
There are no pre draft physicals in baseball.

I know. That needs to change. This could have been avoided.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #438 on: July 21, 2014, 07:45:30 am »
I know. That needs to change. This could have been avoided.

Which was my point. It could have been avoided but MLBPA chooses to use this, as all things, as a bargaining chip.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #439 on: July 21, 2014, 08:15:17 am »
We're forgetting the dream scenario here: Aiken pitches well at JUCO this year, the Rangers draft him #1 again, sign him for $7MM, and he blows out his UCL while setting down the pen after signing to contract.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #440 on: July 21, 2014, 09:08:02 am »
It is going to be a long time for Aiken to be anything in particular, in the mean time I like some of the players the Astros did sign. A. J. Reed stands out even though I barely know anything about him.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #441 on: July 21, 2014, 09:15:39 am »
We're forgetting the dream scenario here: Aiken pitches well at JUCO this year, the Rangers draft him #1 again, sign him for $7MM, and he blows out his UCL while setting down the pen after signing to contract.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #442 on: July 21, 2014, 09:22:08 am »
Which was my point. It could have been avoided but MLBPA chooses to use this, as all things, as a bargaining chip.

And then threatening the organization that finds a problem (or potential) and backs off on the offer.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #443 on: July 21, 2014, 09:30:56 am »
And then threatening the organization that finds a problem (or potential) and backs off on the offer.

You do understand that MLBPA is masterful at playing both sides of the fence? In my opinion, MLBPA sells out the younger players for the vets.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #444 on: July 21, 2014, 09:38:03 am »
You do understand that MLBPA is masterful at playing both sides of the fence? In my opinion, MLBPA sells out the younger players for the vets.

Not sure how they are playing both sides on the issue of pre-draft physicals? Help me.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #445 on: July 21, 2014, 09:48:29 am »
Not sure how they are playing both sides on the issue of pre-draft physicals? Help me.

MLBPA views pre-draft physicals as invasive and is using that as a bargaining chip for another benefit. MLB wants them. MLBPA is the obstacle.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #446 on: July 21, 2014, 11:22:19 am »
No pre-draft physicals has to be one of the dumbest things in a long line of stupid things in sports.  Other than using it as a bargaining chip, what in the world could possibly be the logic for not allowing pre draft physicals?

In what way does letting players get drafted, that end up failing a physical, benefit anyone?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #447 on: July 21, 2014, 11:24:59 am »
Well,  it gets players who may never pay 40% of the slot amount
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #448 on: July 21, 2014, 11:32:47 am »
Well,  it gets players who may never pay 40% of the slot amount

Speaking of the 40% #.  How many rounds does that rule apply to?  If you draft a guy in the 7th round offer him 40% (68K) and he refuses to sign do you get an extra pick in the 7th the following year?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #449 on: July 21, 2014, 12:10:59 pm »
Speaking of the 40% #.  How many rounds does that rule apply to?  If you draft a guy in the 7th round offer him 40% (68K) and he refuses to sign do you get an extra pick in the 7th the following year?

Wikipedia says the Astros will not get a 2nd 5th round pick ...

Quote
In a feature that did not change with the most recent CBA in 2012, teams can also earn compensation for unsigned picks from the previous year's draft. If a team doesn't sign a first or second round pick, they will get to pick at the same slot plus one the following year.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #450 on: July 21, 2014, 12:38:53 pm »
Thanks VC.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #451 on: July 21, 2014, 01:36:54 pm »
No pre-draft physicals has to be one of the dumbest things in a long line of stupid things in sports.  Other than using it as a bargaining chip, what in the world could possibly be the logic for not allowing pre draft physicals?

In what way does letting players get drafted, that end up failing a physical, benefit anyone?

There is no benefit to anyone.  The lack of pre-draft medical reports directly led to 8 million dollars not going to the players.  Yes the Astros will spend more next year but I believe slot values below them will drop to make up for it. 

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #452 on: July 21, 2014, 01:37:38 pm »
Right, bad luck. Like the history of the Cubs. Like the kind of bad luck that caused the Astros to have three 100 loss seasons in a row. No part of a plan that went awry. No accountability.

I was not aware of any contingency and I don't know that Aiken's camp was either. If so that's a shitty way of negotiating. We're prepared to offer x but only if you meet our criteria which will be determined by us. I understand any residual resentment. Maybe, Aiken's people knew he had an issue and were hoping the Astros would overlook it, but their behavior says otherwise.

I'm not in love with the man but I don't hate Luhnow, I hate seeing the Astros continue to lose. This is just another example of them not succeeding. If another club picked him and came to the same conclusion, it would have been them that got fucked. Look I get that the Astros couldn't help it, but how is not signing three draft picks not getting fucked? They didn't intend to fuck-up but they did. If a bind man walks into a door, it's unfortunate that he didn't see the door, and maybe the guy that closed it is partly to blame, but the blind guy still got fucked by the door.

Anyway one looks at it, regardless of who's to blame or not to blame, the Astros draft was far less fruitful than intended. I guess that's cool with the Kool-aid drinkers because the Astros tried to draft well, luck just wasn't on their side. They get an A for effort, and a F for results.

this is just wrong. the bonus must be conditioned on passing a physical. anything else would be stupid.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #453 on: July 21, 2014, 02:11:46 pm »
There is no benefit to anyone.  The lack of pre-draft medical reports directly led to 8 million dollars not going to the players.  Yes the Astros will spend more next year but I believe slot values below them will drop to make up for it.  


I think the latter is right.  The Astros #2 pick next year will be salary slotted near the #2 pick this year, taking into account the standard year-to-year draft inflation.    Considering next year will be the 3rd straight draft with exactly 1 compensatory pick added due to lack of signing (Appel in 2012 draft, Phillip Bickford in 2013 draft), there is no additional inflation adjusted slot money for the teams next year compared to this year.   The lack of pre-draft medical reports directly led to ~$8 million dollars not going to the players.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #454 on: July 21, 2014, 02:34:33 pm »
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #455 on: July 21, 2014, 02:46:08 pm »
Matt Purke is one I was trying to think of when this Aiken situation blew up on Thursday.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #456 on: July 21, 2014, 02:51:09 pm »
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #457 on: July 21, 2014, 02:52:59 pm »
Purke got fucked, as the Rangers had offered 6 mil, but got into financial limbo, and with MLB overseeing things, they nixed the deal.  I guess MLB is prescient.

It's a shame to see him get hurt.  His slider was almost as badass as Rodon's was last year.  

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #458 on: July 21, 2014, 02:59:56 pm »
As I predicted...

Nice to see that the internet is nurturing the next generation of quality "journalists."

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #459 on: July 21, 2014, 03:04:02 pm »
Nice to see that the internet is nurturing the next generation of quality "journalists."

I am waiting to hear this from others, which I think will happen.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #460 on: July 21, 2014, 04:13:09 pm »
Kinda surprised that you all have not discussed this Olney piece from earlier. I  am amazed at how Olney in particular seems to have a serious axe to grind with this current FO. Ferrchrissakes, you'd think Luhnow choked fair-minded Buster's pet rabbit to death.


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Re: Aiken
« Reply #461 on: July 21, 2014, 04:29:05 pm »
Kinda surprised that you all have not discussed this Olney piece from earlier. I  am amazed at how Olney in particular seems to have a serious axe to grind with this current FO. Ferrchrissakes, you'd think Luhnow choked fair-minded Buster's pet rabbit to death.



Are you able to read the whole piece? I was curious what it said about Kazmir and the Astros?

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #462 on: July 21, 2014, 04:42:07 pm »
I'm not. Can't answer that one.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #463 on: July 21, 2014, 04:55:35 pm »
Are you able to read the whole piece? I was curious what it said about Kazmir and the Astros?

Just a totally asinine parting jab: "The surcharge for their recent actions is already in place, and figures to cost them even more going into the future. Last winter, Scott Kazmir -- a Houston native -- opted to sign a two-year deal with the Oakland Athletics instead of following up on the Astros’ overtures."

You got me, Buster, I've no idea why anyone would want to play for the A's instead of Houston.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #464 on: July 21, 2014, 05:08:56 pm »
I can't read the article, but that nugget is puzzling: Did Kazmir know that Luhnow was going to screw over Aiken, and wanted a surcharge for that?

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #465 on: July 21, 2014, 05:11:59 pm »
If the Astros offered Kazmir more than the A's then that would be interesting, but I don't see that anywhere.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #466 on: July 21, 2014, 06:19:13 pm »
Kinda surprised that you all have not discussed this Olney piece from earlier. I  am amazed at how Olney in particular seems to have a serious axe to grind with this current FO. Ferrchrissakes, you'd think Luhnow choked fair-minded Buster's pet rabbit to death.



Olney is a thoughtless tool.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #467 on: July 21, 2014, 06:56:00 pm »
Finally able to read the non-insider part of it. What Olney is implying isn't what everyone else is implying, and doesn't make any sense.  He is implying that the Astros original offer to Aiken (reported to be 6.5 million) wasn't low enough to sign both Aiken and Nix, and they had to drop that offer to cover Nix' request. Everyone else has implied that they dropped the Aiken offer to cover both Nix and Marshall (and for the obvious physical reason). 

Until now, I've never been under the impression that the facts are as Olney is alluding to. Also, given that Close was the agent to both, Olney's story doesn't make sense: Close is a smart guy and can add two numbers together and would certainly have known if the Aiken original price precluded Nix' asking price.

Olney does seem like a fool in this article, but the part about haggling over 1.5 million can always be presented as a fact, and used to bludgeon Luhnow, even if it is disingenuous. If he had stayed at 3.1, that talk would have died.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #468 on: July 21, 2014, 07:29:33 pm »
It really is just a poorly written article altogether.  I completely understand how the Astros could have a perception problem, but he did a really shitty job trying to communicate that.  It's just random cheap shots about second-guessing the Appel decision and Kazmir deciding to sign with a playoff contender.

It's probably the worst piece of media I've read touching on the whole situation.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #469 on: July 21, 2014, 08:04:52 pm »
Olney has demonstrated time and again that he's a lying sack of shit. Why would anyone care what he thinks?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #470 on: July 21, 2014, 08:37:00 pm »
Olney has demonstrated time and again that he's a lying sack of shit. Why would anyone care what he thinks?

It's not so much caring what he thinks as acknowledging that he has influence in the national media and is a driver behind the bullshit narratives being written about this front office.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #471 on: July 21, 2014, 09:41:32 pm »
It's not so much caring what he thinks as acknowledging that he has influence in the national media and is a driver behind the bullshit narratives being written about this front office.

Why do you give a shit what the media think, especially those that engage in blind speculation and out and out deceit?  When the Astros win, Luhnow will be a genius. Until then, he's an idiot. Bloggers gotta blog.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #472 on: July 22, 2014, 03:46:55 am »
Why do you give a shit what the media think, especially those that engage in blind speculation and out and out deceit?  When the Astros win, Luhnow will be a genius. Until then, he's an idiot. Bloggers gotta blog.
That's preposterous! Remember how that guy Billy Beane was regarded as a cold, unfeeling, arrogant, manipulative GM that other teams and agents disliked dealing with? Whatever happened to that guy? Clearly it ruined his career and the success of his team.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #473 on: July 22, 2014, 08:15:24 am »
That's preposterous! Remember how that guy Billy Beane was regarded as a cold, unfeeling, arrogant, manipulative GM that other teams and agents disliked dealing with? Whatever happened to that guy? Clearly it ruined his career and the success of his team.

Luhnow doesn't look like Brad Pitt.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #474 on: July 22, 2014, 08:20:51 am »
Luhnow doesn't look like Brad Pitt.

He doesn't even look like Zasu Pitts.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #475 on: July 22, 2014, 09:12:20 am »
Was anyone else other than Oakland offering Kazmir a two-year deal? If not, that's probably a huge reason why he signed with the A's, not because of someone "reputation" problem in Houston.

The Marlins have had maybe the worst perception problem of any organization in MLB for years until the current Astros regime came along. And a few big-name free agents signed with the Marlins a couple of years ago when they went on their spending spree. Why? The Marlins offered the most money. Even in Houston, Scott Feldman signed with the Astros last offseason because they gave him a three-year deal, and I don't think anyone else was going to give him a third year, not to mention the money he got in the deal.

Bottom line: In most cases, players will go where the money (big names) or the years (mediocre to rehab projects) are more than anyone is offering.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #476 on: July 22, 2014, 09:39:29 am »
He doesn't even look like Zasu Pitts.
Or Elijah Pitts.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #477 on: July 22, 2014, 09:41:40 am »
Luhnow doesn't look like Brad Pitt.

or Brad Ausmus.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #478 on: July 22, 2014, 09:56:30 am »
or Mr. Pitt

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #479 on: July 22, 2014, 10:39:37 am »

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #480 on: July 22, 2014, 11:16:06 am »
That's preposterous! Remember how that guy Billy Beane was regarded as a cold, unfeeling, arrogant, manipulative GM that other teams and agents disliked dealing with? Whatever happened to that guy? Clearly it ruined his career and the success of his team.

No way he could have taken the A's back to respectability.  And certainly not have signed a top notch pitcher like....like....Scott Kazmir.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #481 on: July 22, 2014, 12:08:27 pm »
Does anyone else just picture Buster Bluth when the read Olney articles?
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #482 on: July 22, 2014, 12:16:00 pm »
Does anyone else just picture Buster Bluth when the read Olney articles?

not until now.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #483 on: July 22, 2014, 01:28:27 pm »
Does anyone else just picture Buster Bluth when the read Olney articles?

Just wait until you see his analysis of Operation Hot Mother.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #484 on: July 22, 2014, 09:20:59 pm »
That's preposterous! Remember how that guy Billy Beane was regarded as a cold, unfeeling, arrogant, manipulative GM that other teams and agents disliked dealing with? Whatever happened to that guy? Clearly it ruined his career and the success of his team.

Interesting stat I just heard on the radio broadcast from Ford re: Beane. The A's have traded five #1 draft picks in the past year for veterans. Now that's a different approach.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #485 on: July 22, 2014, 09:55:00 pm »
Interesting stat I just heard on the radio broadcast from Ford re: Beane. The A's have traded five #1 draft picks in the past year for veterans. Now that's a different approach.

Because everybody is now on the "build up your farm system" wagon, they're over-valuing high draft picks and under-valuing proven veterans. Why, just look at what happened with this year's 1-1 [ducking]. So it makes sense that Beane would take advantage of that situation by selling his draft picks.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #486 on: July 22, 2014, 10:22:21 pm »
Well, at least until the last trade, it's not like he has been letting go of highly touted players. So, Ford's point may not be that meaningful. You'll notice Beane didn't trade Sonny Gray away.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #487 on: July 23, 2014, 01:08:24 am »
Just wait until you see his analysis of Operation Hot Mother.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #488 on: July 23, 2014, 08:02:45 am »
Interesting stat I just heard on the radio broadcast from Ford re: Beane. The A's have traded five #1 draft picks in the past year for veterans. Now that's a different approach.

The market is overvaluing prospects, so deal your prospects.  It's actually consistent with Beane's history.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #489 on: July 23, 2014, 08:31:45 am »
Drinking for two.

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #491 on: July 23, 2014, 01:24:42 pm »
Well, here ya go.  Fairest assesment of the situation I have seen to date.

Just skip the headline, after that I think this is pretty spot on.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/23/houston-astros-number-one-pick-brady-aiken-inside-story
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #492 on: July 23, 2014, 01:33:19 pm »
Well, here ya go.  Fairest assesment of the situation I have seen to date.

Just skip the headline, after that I think this is pretty spot on.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/23/houston-astros-number-one-pick-brady-aiken-inside-story

This one is fairly comprehensive and objective.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24223#commentMessage
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #493 on: July 23, 2014, 02:09:35 pm »
Well, here ya go.  Fairest assesment of the situation I have seen to date.

Just skip the headline, after that I think this is pretty spot on.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/23/houston-astros-number-one-pick-brady-aiken-inside-story

I have a serious problem with the closing of the article.

Quote
As is usually the case when a 17-year-old finds himself in a contretemps with a multi-billion dollar industry, the real loser appears to be not the team, but the teenager.

Unless Aiken AGAIN goes 1-1, he's turned down $5M that he won't get offered again.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #494 on: July 23, 2014, 02:18:20 pm »
I have a serious problem with the closing of the article.

Unless Aiken AGAIN goes 1-1, he's turned down $5M that he won't get offered again.

I firmly believe that Aiken got lousy advice from Casey Close. How he could have recommended that the kid not take $5,000,000 in guaranteed money today with a cloud over his head for an upcoming draft is beyond me. I also think that Close crossed the line of advisor/agent and has put Aiken's amateur status in jeopardy.
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Re: Aiken
« Reply #495 on: July 23, 2014, 02:19:41 pm »
I also think that Close crossed the line of advisor/agent and has put Aiken's amateur status in jeopardy.

Not our problem.
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Mr. Happy

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #496 on: July 23, 2014, 02:29:41 pm »
Not our problem.

I never said that it was. It's Aiken's problem. I thought that I had made that clear.
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BudGirl

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #497 on: July 23, 2014, 03:00:59 pm »
I never said that it was. It's Aiken's problem. I thought that I had made that clear.

Don't take it personal.  It feels as though some are saying the Astros owe this kid something.  They would have if he had signed.  He didn't, they don't.
''I just did an interview with someone I like more than you. I used a lot of big words on him. I don't have anything left for you.'' --Brad Ausmus

Well behaved women rarely make history.

Mr. Happy

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #498 on: July 23, 2014, 03:04:31 pm »
Don't take it personal.  It feels as though some are saying the Astros owe this kid something.  They would have if he had signed.  He didn't, they don't.

On that we agree.
People who cannot recognize a palpable absurdity are very much in the way of civilization. Agnes Rupellier

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Navin R Johnson

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Re: Aiken
« Reply #499 on: July 23, 2014, 03:33:14 pm »
I have a serious problem with the closing of the article.

Unless Aiken AGAIN goes 1-1, he's turned down $5M that he won't get offered again.

Don't disagree with you there.  I thought the article did a pretty good job of laying out the timelines of what happened and what the options were.
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