By David in Jackson
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on September 30, 2001.
If the Astros are able to hang on and make the postseason, no player will be more important to their chances in the playoffs than Shane Reynolds.
Reynolds just won his 99th big league game, all in an Astros uniform. He ranks sixth on the team career wins list, trailing Joe Niekro, Larry Dierker, Mike Scott, J. R. Richard, Nolan Ryan, and Don Wilson. He has been the opening day starter five times, and would have been the first Astro to start six openings days had he not been injured this year. He was an All-Star in 2000, a reward for a consistent career in a dismal season for the team.
Still, with all these accomplishments, Reynolds has never been considered a true ace or the most dominating pitcher on the team. From Darryl Kile to Randy Johnson to Mike Hampton to Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt, the Astros have always entered the postseason with other pitchers capable of carrying the team to success.
With Oswalt questionable as of Saturday and Dave Mlicki currently the #3 starter (!?), things are different this season. Wade Miller and Reynolds hardly match up with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, but Houston resembles the Diamondbacks with a significant drop-off in talent after the first two starters. If the Astros can’t win when Reynolds starts, they have little chance.
The pressure on Reynolds comes at the end of another solid if unspectacular season. Reynolds 2001:
13-10 4.48 ERA 168.2 IP 192 H 34 BB 94 K
His ERA is 3.45 on the road, 5.55 at EFUS. Five of his wins have come against the Chicago Cubs. Taking away the Cubs, his numbers aren’t as good.
Shane has never been a power pitcher, but his strikeouts are down this year a disturbing trend for his future. Earlier totals:
Year IP K
———————
1994 124.0 110
1995 189.1 175
1996 239.0 204
1997 181.0 152
1998 233.1 209
1999 231.2 197
2000 131.0 93
2001 168.2 94
This dropoff is troubling, but has been offset by solid control. In 26 starts, Reynolds has pitched at least 5 innings all but twice.
How has Shane performed in the playoffs?
1997 vs Hated ATL
1 start. Went 6 innings, allowed 2 runs. Took loss in Game Three when John Smoltz and the Braves won 4-1 to eliminate Houston.
1998 vs San Diego
1 start. Went 7 innings, allowed 2 runs. No decision in Game Two. Astros win 2-1 in extra innings on Billy Spiers hit.
1999 vs Hated ATL
2 starts. Won Game One, going 6 innings and allowing 1 run. Pitching on three days rest (Saturday following a Tuesday) in Game Four, Reynolds went 5 innings and allowed 4 runs. He took the loss as Houston was eliminated by Atlanta in a 5-7 game.
No Astro pitcher has ever carried his team to a post season series victory. The best opportunities have been given to Nolan “Ranger” Ryan, who carried a 5-2 lead into the 8th inning against the Phillies in 1980. The Astros blew the game, losing 7-8. Ryan also lost the decisive final game against the Dodgers the following year.
If the Astros are to have any chance to win their first postseason series this year, Shane Reynolds will have to elevate his game to elite status. If he can, one of Houston’s most consistent pitchers can stake a claim as one of the team’s all-time greats.
With one week left in the 2001 season, David in Jackson is nervous as hell.