By Waldo
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on May 25, 2001.
When a team gets off to a bad start, its fans will generally say “It’s still early, we can still turn it around.” I, for one, was guilty of that with the Astros last season. I’m not quite sure how long I allowed myself to use that excuse before I finally realized how much the team actually sucked. The expectations one has for a team can often make him/her blind to the cold, hard truth, and I’m fairly certain that I wasn’t the only victim of that last season (at least, for a little while).
Usually by this point in the season (at the time of this writing, 27.737% of all games have been played) we can get a clear picture of the makeup of a team. Of course, that’s not to say that a team 10 games out of first place _can’t_ get back into the picture, but it’s highly unlikely. Likewise, it’s not impossible for a team with a 10-game lead for first place to completely collapse, but you’d be betting against better judgement if you predicted something like that.
The quarter pole is also a good time to think about how a certain player will perform for the rest of the year. It’s fairly safe to assume that players like Brad Ausmus, Steve Trachsel, and Jose Lima are all going to have a subpar-at-best 2001 season overall. It’s also safe to assume that Lance Berkman, Kevin Brown, and Albert Pujols are going to continue to put up monster numbers.
Having said all this, I’d like to step out from the bounds of the Series Preview to take you on a tour of the major leagues and speculate about each race. Quick, somebody burn some incense; the baseball gods must not hear of this. Will I get burned at the stake? Probably, but it’s all part of the job. Cook me medium-well.
AL East
Current divison leader: BOS (25-19, +.5 over NYY)
Predicted division winner: BOS in 1-game playoff with NYY
Statistically, you’d be hard pressed to find two teams more alike than the Red Sox and the Yankees (25-20). The difference in their team batting averages is .003 (Boston has the upper hand). The BoSox have scored all of 2 more runs than the Yanks. Their team ERAs are also comparable (Boston 3.38, New York 3.66), but the Yankees have allowed 29 more runs. The Blue Jays (24-21) got burned by the Wells/Sirotka trade, and they’re only in the middle of the pack when it comes to pitching and batting statistics. Baltimore (21-24) has not been doing _too_ badly, but they have a losing record against the East, and that will be their ultimate downfall. The Devil Rays (13-32) are… well, yeah. You know.
AL Central
Current division leader: MIN (30-14, +.5 over CLE)
Predicted division winner: CLE (MIN wins Wild Card)
One of the biggest surprises has been the phenomenal success of the Twinkies after their hideous 2000 campaign. Brad Radke (7-1, 3.39) and Eric Milton (5-3, 3.62) have finally turned into the pitchers that they were supposed to become, and Joe Mays (6-2, 2.67) has been a welcome addition also. The Twins and Indians (29-14) are pretty much on the same page with respect to pitching, but the simple truth is that the Cleveland offense rocks (league-leading .299 average and 260 runs scored; Minnesota is .266/214). Oddly enough, these two teams have not yet played each other this season. Both the Tigers (21-22) and Royals (18-28) are way out of the race already, and neither team has better than a .333 win percentage against the Central. The White Sox (14-29) have to be scratching their heads at their first-to-worst downfall, and their loss of Frank Thomas didn’t help things one bit. Look for them to trade David Wells for a pitcher and a first baseman.
AL West
Current division leader: SEA (33-12, +11 over OAK)
Predicted division winner: SEA
This is a no-brainer. The Mariners are the best team in baseball, and no one in the division even comes close. One wonders how you get to be so good when you’ve lost an ace pitcher (Johnson) and two franchise players (Griffey and ARod) within 2.5 years. Oakland (22-23) got off to a _terrible_ start but seems to have regained some hint of respectability. The Angels (20-24) are in the middle of the pack all the way and don’t pose anything of a threat. Of course, the big joke of the season has been the Rangers (16-29), and Doug Melvin had better be printing copies of his resume right now if he knows what’s good for him.
NL East
Current division leader: PHI (27-17, +6 over ATL & FLA)
Predicted division winner: PHI
Vern Ruhle could only be so happy. The Phillies own the best ERA in the league (3.80), have given up the least runs (earned or otherwise), and have terrorized the NL East with a .812 winning percentage. Their offense is mediocre at best, but fortunately for them, the Braves (22-24) are in the middle of the pack in both pitching _and_ offense. The Marlins (21-23) are right there with the Braves, and neither team has played well against the East. The Mets (19-27) made a foolhearty mistake in signing Steve Trachsel (1-6, 8.24), who also goes by the name Jose Lima. The Expos (19-28) would be happy just to have enough people at their home games to sing all four vocal parts to “O Canada,” but I guess you can’t have everything.
NL Central
Current division leader: STL (25-19, +.5 over CHC & MIL)
Predicted division winner: STL (MIL wins Wild Card)
Please, put down your tomatoes and batteries. This was not an easy call, not by a long shot. The Cards’ pitching and offense is just too good, and they do too well against the Central to not win it. The Brew Crew (25-20) doesn’t play well on the road, but the majority of their games played after the All-Star Break are at home, where they tear it up to the tune of 18-8. The sCrUBS (25-20) don’t really stand out against the other teams in the Central, and they do not have a good offense… something that the Cards and Brewers _do_ have. Our Houston Astros (24-21) would fare better in my mind if they didn’t play 41 of their last 85 games at EFUS, and if they didn’t suck at home. The Redlegs (19-26) are most likely out of the running thanks to many injuries, and no thanks to Junior Griffey. The Pirates (15-29) are the worst team in the National League and seem to like it that way. So does Derek Bell, I’m sure.
NL West
Current division leaders: SD & ARZ (25-21, +.5 over LA)
Predicted division winner: SD
Ladies in gentlemen, may I present the best division in baseball. All five teams have at least a .500 record, and only two games separate first and last place. Oddly enough, no team in the West has done spectacularly well against other teams in the division, so we have to look at other aspects of the game. The Padres have really dominated the Central (10-2) and are the only team that is ranked borderline high in league-wide batting (avg 4th, .266; hits 3rd, 425; runs 2nd, 260) and pitching (ERA 5th, 4.04; runs 9th, 212; walks 4th, 133; strikeouts 3rd, 352). The Dodgers (25-22) have an awesome pitching staff but no real offense to speak of. Arizona is pretty much middle of the pack in both aspects, and something wants me to believe that past financial trouble will rear its ugly head again soon. The Giants (24-22) have a relatively good offense but no pitching to go along with it, seeing as how they are ranked 13th in ERA with a 4.93. The Rockies are the most two-faced team in baseball: league-worst pitching with league-best offense (.305 average, 294(!) runs scored). This will definitely be an exciting race to keep tabs on.