Author Topic: Astros trade for Jennings  (Read 27304 times)

schlumburger04

  • Roster Filler
  • Posts: 160
    • View Profile
Astros trade for Jennings
« on: December 12, 2006, 05:48:11 pm »
The Link

hirsh straight up for jennings should of been enough

Froback

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2253
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2006, 05:50:47 pm »
ok, so that would lead to the who is Miguel Asencio question.

ETA: Seems he was a KC pitcher then had Tommy John type surgery.  Nothing special to see here... maybe a long reliver role in his future???

Andyzipp

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2006, 05:51:49 pm »
Quote:

ok, so that would lead to the who is Miguel Asencio question.




I think he used to go by the name Eny Cabrera...

schlumburger04

  • Roster Filler
  • Posts: 160
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2006, 05:54:29 pm »
Quote:

ok, so that would lead to the who is Miguel Asencio question.




from what i can tell, you really dont want the answer to that

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2006, 05:54:35 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

ok, so that would lead to the who is Miguel Asencio question.




I think he used to go by the name Eny Cabrera...





Que?

Golden Sombrero

  • Prime Time Player
  • Posts: 831
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2006, 05:55:06 pm »
Quote:

The Link

hirsh straight up for jennings should of been enough





Dang, sorry to see Willy T go.  Buchholz--meh.  Hirsh could be great but something needed to be done re: a proven pitcher.
Strikeout Machine

Froback

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2253
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2006, 05:57:16 pm »
OK, Rotation is now something like this:

Oswalt
Jennings
Williams
Wandy
Nieve

Does that sound right?

Bench

  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 16476
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2006, 05:57:59 pm »
It definately opens up a lot of questions.

Burke and Lane in center?

Two of Albers/Sampson/Wandy to round out the rotation?
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2006, 06:00:46 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

The Link

hirsh straight up for jennings should of been enough





Dang, sorry to see Willy T go.  Buchholz--meh.  Hirsh could be great but something needed to be done re: a proven pitcher.





Not without an extention though.  Hopefully they have something planned beyond just next year.  This is a very heavy price to pay.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2006, 06:01:17 pm »
Quote:

OK, Rotation is now something like this:

Oswalt
Jennings
Williams
Wandy
Nieve

Does that sound right?





No.

Froback

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2253
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2006, 06:01:56 pm »
Asencio was a starter before... and really didn't pitch much last year.  I guess he is still comming back from Tommy John, so he is a wild card, but even before the surgery he didn't seem to be anything special.

I figure he will get a look-see at the #5 spot.

Bench

  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 16476
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2006, 06:04:50 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

The Link

hirsh straight up for jennings should of been enough





Dang, sorry to see Willy T go.  Buchholz--meh.  Hirsh could be great but something needed to be done re: a proven pitcher.




Not without an extention though.  Hopefully they have something planned beyond just next year.  This is a very heavy price to pay.




One would hope that was explored through the agent before pulling the trigger. I'd say the Astros are painted into a corner on this one as far as Jennings goes. Similar to the Mets/Benson situation a few years ago.

It's definately a lot of talented warm bodies for one year of a decent 2/3 pitcher.
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

Russ99

  • Veteran Role Player
  • Posts: 281
    • View Profile
    • www.thrustjet.com
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2006, 06:05:40 pm »
Quote:

It definately opens up a lot of questions.

Burke and Lane in center?

Two of Albers/Sampson/Wandy to round out the rotation?





I don't think Purp is done. Maybe package Lane or Burke, a pitcher and prospect for Baldelli or go after Vernon Wells. I still doubt Ensberg will be an Astro in March

I wonder if the whole Boras thing led to Willy being sent out of town before the more obvious trade candidates...

" He is a throwback to the old days, when a player's most honored badges were mud and blood"

- Larry Dierker on Bill Doran -  The Scouting Report 1987

BizidyDizidy

  • Pope
  • Posts: 8836
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2006, 06:16:47 pm »
This is more than we gave up for Randy Johnson. Wow.
"My doctor told me to stop having intimate dinners for four. Unless there are three other people."
  -  Orson Welles

littlevisigoth

  • Disappointing Rookie
  • Posts: 62
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2006, 06:19:33 pm »
Quote:

The Link

hirsh straight up for jennings should of been enough





seems like an aweful lot.  wonder what it speaks most to... how the Astros feel about Jennings, how they feel about Willy/Hirsh/Buchholz, or how desperate they were to sign a "proven" pitcher to the rotation?  methinks the latter, which is understandable, but just unfortunate.  an extension is an absolute MUST to make this trade look good in the long run.

wonder what more is coming... are we really going to go into ST with Lane and Burke as our primary candidates for CF?

EasTexAstro

  • Pope
  • Posts: 5748
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2006, 06:20:57 pm »
Quote:

This is a very heavy price to pay.




I'll never be confused for a GM, and I was hoping the Astros could get the pitching strengthened, but wow...

Buchholz and Hirsh may never pan out, but they had some promise of a nice MLB future. I think the Astros are going to miss Willy Taveras. I know I am. Maybe not the best player ever traded by the Astros, but he was a fun player to watch.
It's my estimation that every man ever got a statue made of 'em was one kinda sombitch or another.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #16 on: December 12, 2006, 06:23:59 pm »
Nothing on the official site and even in the Chron.  What gives?

BudGirl

  • Contributor
  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 17776
  • Brad Ausmus' Slave
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #17 on: December 12, 2006, 06:25:37 pm »
Quote:

Nothing on the official site and even in the Chron.  What gives?




Not 4:30 yet?
''I just did an interview with someone I like more than you. I used a lot of big words on him. I don't have anything left for you.'' --Brad Ausmus

Well behaved women rarely make history.

OldBlevins

  • Prime Time Player
  • Posts: 633
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #18 on: December 12, 2006, 06:25:55 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

This is a very heavy price to pay.




I'll never be confused for a GM, and I was hoping the Astros could get the pitching strengthened, but wow...

Buchholz and Hirsh may never pan out, but they had some promise of a nice MLB future. I think the Astros are going to miss Willy Taveras. I know I am. Maybe not the best player ever traded by the Astros, but he was a fun player to watch.





I wasn't that impressed with Buchholz (not that I ever really saw him or know anything about pitchers, mind you), but Hirsch seemed pretty good.  The team needed pitching but the price seems very high.
blah, blah, blah . . .

littlevisigoth

  • Disappointing Rookie
  • Posts: 62
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #19 on: December 12, 2006, 06:26:47 pm »
790 says press conference with "big announcement" at 4:30 and reporting the details of the trade as they are outlined in the Fox Sports article.  not that that explains why the Chron hasn't picked up on it.  the official site won't put anything up until the press conference, of course.

Froback

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2253
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #20 on: December 12, 2006, 06:27:49 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Nothing on the official site and even in the Chron.  What gives?




Not 4:30 yet?




I guess, there is supposed to be a 4:30 press conference on it.  Hopefully someone will ask about extensions.

Russ99

  • Veteran Role Player
  • Posts: 281
    • View Profile
    • www.thrustjet.com
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #21 on: December 12, 2006, 06:27:52 pm »
After the Chron got burned on the premature Garland announcment, I can understand them now waiting on official word.

" He is a throwback to the old days, when a player's most honored badges were mud and blood"

- Larry Dierker on Bill Doran -  The Scouting Report 1987

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #22 on: December 12, 2006, 06:28:34 pm »
Quote:

790 says press conference with "big announcement" at 4:30 and reporting the details of the trade as they are outlined in the Fox Sports article.  not that that explains why the Chron hasn't picked up on it.  the official site won't put anything up until the press conference, of course.




It's three minutes to 4:30.  What gives with the Chron and main site though?  Maybe they want to make sure the players in question are correct or even if Jennings agreed to an extention of some sort?

BudGirl

  • Contributor
  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 17776
  • Brad Ausmus' Slave
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #23 on: December 12, 2006, 06:28:39 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Nothing on the official site and even in the Chron.  What gives?




Not 4:30 yet?



I guess, there is supposed to be a 4:30 press conference on it.  Hopefully someone will ask about extensions.




Who from OWA is there to ask that question?
''I just did an interview with someone I like more than you. I used a lot of big words on him. I don't have anything left for you.'' --Brad Ausmus

Well behaved women rarely make history.

BudGirl

  • Contributor
  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 17776
  • Brad Ausmus' Slave
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #24 on: December 12, 2006, 06:29:48 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

790 says press conference with "big announcement" at 4:30 and reporting the details of the trade as they are outlined in the Fox Sports article.  not that that explains why the Chron hasn't picked up on it.  the official site won't put anything up until the press conference, of course.




It's three minutes to 4:30.  What gives with the Chron and main site though?  Maybe they want to make sure the players in question are correct or even if Jennings agreed to an extention of some sort?





don't they usually put notice of the press conference also?

Cause, I really don't know.
''I just did an interview with someone I like more than you. I used a lot of big words on him. I don't have anything left for you.'' --Brad Ausmus

Well behaved women rarely make history.

Bench

  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 16476
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #25 on: December 12, 2006, 06:30:05 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

790 says press conference with "big announcement" at 4:30 and reporting the details of the trade as they are outlined in the Fox Sports article.  not that that explains why the Chron hasn't picked up on it.  the official site won't put anything up until the press conference, of course.




It's three minutes to 4:30.  What gives with the Chron and main site though?  Maybe they want to make sure the players in question are correct or even if Jennings agreed to an extention of some sort?





Could Jennings agree to an extensino alredy without it technically being tampering?

It is amusing that the Chron isn't reporting it. I guess a thousand and once bitten...
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

BizidyDizidy

  • Pope
  • Posts: 8836
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #26 on: December 12, 2006, 06:31:11 pm »
Doesn't look like conf. is on tv - are they usually and where would it be?
"My doctor told me to stop having intimate dinners for four. Unless there are three other people."
  -  Orson Welles

Bench

  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 16476
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #27 on: December 12, 2006, 06:31:15 pm »
It's on live, now on Astros.com.
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #28 on: December 12, 2006, 06:31:26 pm »
The press conference may be to announce the signing of Jeff Bagwell to a personal services contract as well.  Because there is nothing on the main site nor the Chron.

Strange.

BudGirl

  • Contributor
  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 17776
  • Brad Ausmus' Slave
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #29 on: December 12, 2006, 06:31:28 pm »
on the astros site now.
''I just did an interview with someone I like more than you. I used a lot of big words on him. I don't have anything left for you.'' --Brad Ausmus

Well behaved women rarely make history.

MusicMan

  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 25931
  • Thanks for 2015
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #30 on: December 12, 2006, 06:32:11 pm »
This does not sit well with me at all.
I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing AstroTurf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, torture of Bud Selig.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #31 on: December 12, 2006, 06:32:58 pm »
Quote:

This does not sit well with me at all.




Main site now saying it's a two for one deal: Taveras and Hirsh for Jennings.

Jacksonian

  • Contributor
  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12893
  • Anonymous Source
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #32 on: December 12, 2006, 06:35:58 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

This does not sit well with me at all.




Main site now saying it's a two for one deal: Taveras and Hirsh for Jennings.





Purp just mentioned the possibility of Pence in center next year without being prompted after mentioning Lane and Burke as possibilities.  I can't imagine Lane won't get first shot.
Goin' for a bus ride.

BudGirl

  • Contributor
  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 17776
  • Brad Ausmus' Slave
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #33 on: December 12, 2006, 06:36:02 pm »
no chance to talk extension yet.
''I just did an interview with someone I like more than you. I used a lot of big words on him. I don't have anything left for you.'' --Brad Ausmus

Well behaved women rarely make history.

Bench

  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 16476
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #34 on: December 12, 2006, 06:36:05 pm »
Quote:

on the astros site now.




Summary from Pup:

Jennings is excited to throw a sinker, will be the "#2 starter we've been looking for". Jennings had the second lowest run support last year, so he will fit in.

Ascensio to provide depth in the bullpen.

Lane is playing CF in Venezuela, that it opens up an "every day position" for Burke.

Pence was "pushing out" Willy.

Haven't talked about an extension, but will.

Summary from Drayton:

Go Baylor! Jennings can hit too!

This shows a commitment to a championship.

Drayton can't wait for spring training.
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

BudGirl

  • Contributor
  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 17776
  • Brad Ausmus' Slave
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #35 on: December 12, 2006, 06:36:47 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

This does not sit well with me at all.




Main site now saying it's a two for one deal: Taveras and Hirsh for Jennings.





TP mentioned the second pitcher.
''I just did an interview with someone I like more than you. I used a lot of big words on him. I don't have anything left for you.'' --Brad Ausmus

Well behaved women rarely make history.

MusicMan

  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 25931
  • Thanks for 2015
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #36 on: December 12, 2006, 06:39:16 pm »
Quote:

This is more than we gave up for Randy Johnson. Wow.




I have to agree with this.  I know RJ was a deadline deal, but this is the first time I can remember wildly disagreeing with a Purpura move.
I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing AstroTurf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, torture of Bud Selig.

BizidyDizidy

  • Pope
  • Posts: 8836
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #37 on: December 12, 2006, 06:40:13 pm »
It's def. the deal as reported by Rosenthal.
"My doctor told me to stop having intimate dinners for four. Unless there are three other people."
  -  Orson Welles

Froback

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2253
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #38 on: December 12, 2006, 06:40:45 pm »
Listening to press conference

Comments From Tim:
Asencio - bullpen bound
Burke to play everyday (so I guess that answers CF)
Lane to play more
Pence was mentioned as part of the future OF spots

Comments from Drayton:
From Baylor (Jennings)
Jennings is a good hitter

Response to questions:
Still things out there they are looking at, but nothing is making them feel motivated to do anything yet.
Thinks the team is better offensively with Burke playing CF over Wily.


Hard to hear some of the questions, so not sure if the first question was about extension or not.  If it was, then they have not talked about it... but then like I said, I couldn't hear the first question, just the response.

BudGirl

  • Contributor
  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 17776
  • Brad Ausmus' Slave
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #39 on: December 12, 2006, 06:42:57 pm »
Quote:

Listening to press conference

Comments From Tim:
Asencio - bullpen bound
Burke to play everyday (so I guess that answers CF)
Lane to play more
Pence was mentioned as part of the future OF spots

Comments from Drayton:
From Baylor (Jennings)
Jennings is a good hitter

Response to questions:
Still things out there they are looking at, but nothing is making them feel motivated to do anything yet.
Thinks the team is better offensively with Burke playing CF over Wily.


Hard to hear some of the questions, so not sure if the first question was about extension or not.  If it was, then they have not talked about it... but then like I said, I couldn't hear the first question, just the response.





He also mentioned Lane is playing Venezuala ball right now.
''I just did an interview with someone I like more than you. I used a lot of big words on him. I don't have anything left for you.'' --Brad Ausmus

Well behaved women rarely make history.

Bench

  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 16476
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #40 on: December 12, 2006, 06:43:16 pm »
Quote:

Listening to press conference

Comments From Tim:
Asencio - bullpen bound
Burke to play everyday (so I guess that answers CF)
Lane to play more
Pence was mentioned as part of the future OF spots

Comments from Drayton:
From Baylor (Jennings)
Jennings is a good hitter

Response to questions:
Still things out there they are looking at, but nothing is making them feel motivated to do anything yet.
Thinks the team is better offensively with Burke playing CF over Wily.


Hard to hear some of the questions, so not sure if the first question was about extension or not.  If it was, then they have not talked about it... but then like I said, I couldn't hear the first question, just the response.





Regarding the extension, Pup said he hasn't talked to him about it yet, he just said hello for the first time. Doesn't expect anything near term, but will discuss it.
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

JaneDoe

  • Contributor
  • Pope
  • Posts: 8603
  • Missing in Action
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #41 on: December 12, 2006, 06:43:17 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

This is more than we gave up for Randy Johnson. Wow.




I have to agree with this.  I know RJ was a deadline deal, but this is the first time I can remember wildly disagreeing with a Purpura move.





I was pissed about the Johnson deal. (really, ask my husband).  This was too much also, but not nearly as bad as the Johnson deal.
"My hammy is a little tight. I wish I was like Ausmus. He's Jewish and isn't allowed to have a pulled hamstring."

BizidyDizidy

  • Pope
  • Posts: 8836
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #42 on: December 12, 2006, 06:45:11 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

This is more than we gave up for Randy Johnson. Wow.




I have to agree with this.  I know RJ was a deadline deal, but this is the first time I can remember wildly disagreeing with a Purpura move.




I was pissed about the Johnson deal. (really, ask my husband).  This was too much also, but not nearly as bad as the Johnson deal.




Can't nearly agree, but what do I know. THe Johnson deal was great - hope this one is too.
"My doctor told me to stop having intimate dinners for four. Unless there are three other people."
  -  Orson Welles

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #43 on: December 12, 2006, 06:47:31 pm »
Quote:

It's def. the deal as reported by Rosenthal.




Just heard it.  Main quote from Purpura "A deal isn't a good deal unless it hurts both sides".  That is one way of saying win-win is a good deal.  They must have high expectation from Jennings to pay this much or lower expectations from either Hirsh or Buchholz.  Taveras is really not that big a deal to me, although I love watching him play.

It's giving up two young pitchers for a rental that makes it bit unsettling.  But I'm not the Houston Astros nor work for them nor know anywhere near the things they know.  If Chicago didn't want these three for Garland, then Colorado benefitted from it.  Obviously if they were willing to trade the three to Chicago, they just as willing to trade the three to Colorado, even if it is Jennings.

Okay, so let's rock and roll now!  I think the Astros are ready to go now.  I expect Burke in center, Lane/Scott in right, Lee in left, Palmeiro on the bench, somebody else (maybe Bruntlett) as #5.  Ensberg/Lamb at third, Everett at short, Ausmu/Gimenez behind the dish, Biggio/sometimes Burke at second and Berkman/Lamb at first.

Is there one player missing in there that you can see?

Oh, btw - I think Chris Sampson will get the job as #5 now.  He's got a clear shot at it.  Pence, Albers and Guiterrez in AAA as emergency callups next year.

Sounds about right (except for that Roger Clemens fella... wonder about him?  Hmmmm...)

Alkie

  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12195
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #44 on: December 12, 2006, 06:48:42 pm »
Quote:

This does not sit well with me at all.




Jason Jennings isn't a legitimate #2, that's why.  We traded the kind of players that should have brought us more of a Brad Penny or Ben Sheets type pitcher, not Jason Jennings.  ESPECIALLY for one guaranteed year.

I'm not totally against the whole thing, but I think the odds are much better we look back at this trade as desperation than "good for the team."

At this point, I sincerely hope we're not done.  

Oswalt/Jennings/WWilliams?  I don't think so.

BizidyDizidy

  • Pope
  • Posts: 8836
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #45 on: December 12, 2006, 06:49:03 pm »
Maybe I'm out of it, but who are you projecting as the number 4?
"My doctor told me to stop having intimate dinners for four. Unless there are three other people."
  -  Orson Welles

BizidyDizidy

  • Pope
  • Posts: 8836
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #46 on: December 12, 2006, 06:49:46 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

This does not sit well with me at all.




Jason Jennings isn't a legitimate #2, that's why.  We traded the kind of players that should have brought us more of a Brad Penny or Ben Sheets type pitcher, not Jason Jennings.  ESPECIALLY for one guaranteed year.

I'm not totally against the whole thing, but I think the odds are much better we look back at this trade as desperation than "good for the team."

At this point, I sincerely hope we're not done.  

Oswalt/Jennings/WWilliams?  I don't think so.





To me the problem is that it being a successful trade is based on an improvement in Jennings, and thats a scary plan.
"My doctor told me to stop having intimate dinners for four. Unless there are three other people."
  -  Orson Welles

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #47 on: December 12, 2006, 06:51:27 pm »
Quote:

Maybe I'm out of it, but who are you projecting as the number 4?




Woody Williams.  #3 is the issue.

Bench

  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 16476
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #48 on: December 12, 2006, 06:51:38 pm »
Pup was noticeably quiet about Hirsh, only discussing him in the questioning portion of the conference saying only , "yeah, he is a good prospect." Maybe the organization was a lot more down on Hirsh that we imagined.
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

Alkie

  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12195
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #49 on: December 12, 2006, 06:52:14 pm »
Man, I'm just SURE I'm wrong about this, but I'm not seeing where Jennings was THAT big of an upgrade over Hirsh.

After all the bullshit posturing the last 2 years about Hirsh being UNTRADABLE....for Jennings?  Really?  Jason Jennings??

the KEG

  • Disappointing Rookie
  • Posts: 88
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #50 on: December 12, 2006, 06:54:22 pm »
I wonder how much the pitchers that still remain will be missing Willy's defense in center.  He was still improving.  There sure is a hell of a lot of potential upside for the Rockies in this deal.

toddthebod

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 3385
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #51 on: December 12, 2006, 06:55:12 pm »
Well, this deal certainly gives the Astros some additional payroll flexibility.  Combined, Asencio and Jennings are getting $6 million for next season.

I expect a very good season from Jennings as he heads towards free agency.  And I am really hoping the Astros can sign Jennings to a long-term contract.

I think that this was a very expensive deal for the Astros, although I have to say that neither Buchholtz nor Hirsch impressed me in their outings last season.

I am also going to miss Willy T.  I would like to see the Astros go after Rocco but it doesn't appear that the Astros would have the pitching that the Rays are looking for.  I am curious to see Pence in centerfield.  The reports out of Arizona about his defense were encouraging.
Boom!

Jacksonian

  • Contributor
  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12893
  • Anonymous Source
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #52 on: December 12, 2006, 06:55:23 pm »
Quote:

Obviously if they were willing to trade the three to Chicago, they just as willing to trade the three to Colorado, even if it is Jennings.




It wasn't just for Jennings.  Ascencio adds another arm to the bullpen.  If Garner gets his 7 bullpen arms as he seems to like to have, who are they as of right now?

Lidge, Wheeler, Qualls, Miller, Ascencio, are 5 and Borkowski?, Nieve?, Wandy?, ??? for the other 2.
Goin' for a bus ride.

BizidyDizidy

  • Pope
  • Posts: 8836
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #53 on: December 12, 2006, 06:55:36 pm »
Jennings has to be as good as Pettitte at his best to make this deal worthwile, imo. Scary, scary, scary.
"My doctor told me to stop having intimate dinners for four. Unless there are three other people."
  -  Orson Welles

Alkie

  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12195
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #54 on: December 12, 2006, 06:56:26 pm »
I'm trying to step back as an Astros fan here and look at the trade from both sides.

I really hate to say it, and it may just be that I'm more familiar with the Astros who we lost than the Rockies we got, but it sure seems like we got reemed big time in this one.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #55 on: December 12, 2006, 06:56:40 pm »
Quote:

Pup was noticeably quiet about Hirsh, only discussing him in the questioning portion of the conference saying only , "yeah, he is a good prospect." Maybe the organization was a lot more down on Hirsh that we imagined.




I don't know about being down on him, haven't heard anything.  I'm glad Patton and Albers names were kept out of many talks though, but that is just me.  Hirsh was a great pitcher in AAA.  I mean the guy was excellent.  But so was Tim Redding.  I'm not saying Hirsh is Tim Redding-ish as a potential bust... I don't believe that.

I think Hirsh is the centerpiece of the trade, not Taveras and not Buchholz.  Pence is a good replacement in the future for right field.  He may prove to be the best hitter to come up since Lance Berkman and that is a good thing.  So it doesn't bother me at all that Taveras is gone.  Neither Buchholz.  But to add Hirsh to the mix just pushes it to a limit that I think Alkie is right about: for Jason Jennings?

Jon Garland sure, but Jason Jennings?  Maybe the stats are Coors inflated and he'll do much better now that he's away from there.  But he's also a one year rental and that just doesn't go away from the equation for me.

Alkie

  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12195
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #56 on: December 12, 2006, 06:57:28 pm »
Quote:

Well, this deal certainly gives the Astros some additional payroll flexibility.  




An excellent point.  I sure hope a Huff signing comes soon.  We're gonna need all the offense we can get if this is our rotation.

Bench

  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 16476
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #57 on: December 12, 2006, 06:58:38 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Well, this deal certainly gives the Astros some additional payroll flexibility.  




An excellent point.  I sure hope a Huff signing comes soon.  We're gonna need all the offense we can get if this is our rotation.





Purpura did make a point of mentioning that Jennings had the second worst run support in the league last year.
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

Golden Sombrero

  • Prime Time Player
  • Posts: 831
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #58 on: December 12, 2006, 06:58:49 pm »
Quote:

Well, this deal certainly gives the Astros some additional payroll flexibility.  Combined, Asencio and Jennings are getting $6 million for next season.

I expect a very good season from Jennings as he heads towards free agency.  And I am really hoping the Astros can sign Jennings to a long-term contract.

I think that this was a very expensive deal for the Astros, although I have to say that neither Buchholtz nor Hirsch impressed me in their outings last season.

I am also going to miss Willy T.  I would like to see the Astros go after Rocco but it doesn't appear that the Astros would have the pitching that the Rays are looking for.  I am curious to see Pence in centerfield.  The reports out of Arizona about his defense were encouraging.





Buchholz looked great...against the Rangers. Everyone else he would be fine for a bit--then the implosion.  Before you knew it we were down by 6.  Hirsh had a lot of build-up but not a lot of payoff.  He still reminds me of a lab experiment gone wrong combining the DNA of Wheels and Backe.
Strikeout Machine

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #59 on: December 12, 2006, 06:58:50 pm »
Quote:

Jennings has to be as good as Pettitte at his best to make this deal worthwile, imo. Scary, scary, scary.




But how many times was Pettitte at his best for Houston?  I think what Houston needed was a guy who can log as much if not more innings than Oswalt.  The starters were thin in that department.  Jeff Supan is still out there and he's a reknown inning eater.  If you get those *types* of starters, you then strengthen your already strong bullpen.

Gizzmonic

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 4588
  • Space City Carbohydrate
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #60 on: December 12, 2006, 06:59:56 pm »
Quote:

Man, I'm just SURE I'm wrong about this, but I'm not seeing where Jennings was THAT big of an upgrade over Hirsh.

After all the bullshit posturing the last 2 years about Hirsh being UNTRADABLE....for Jennings?  Really?  Jason Jennings??





Yeah, I'm with you on this one.  I obviously don't have the tools to evaluate talent that the Purpetrator does, but I liked Hirsch (and to a lesser degree, Buchholz).  

I don't think Jason Jennings is a number two starter.  I hope he proves me wrong, but I really don't like this trade.
Grab another Coke and let's die

Jacksonian

  • Contributor
  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12893
  • Anonymous Source
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #61 on: December 12, 2006, 07:00:17 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Pup was noticeably quiet about Hirsh, only discussing him in the questioning portion of the conference saying only , "yeah, he is a good prospect." Maybe the organization was a lot more down on Hirsh that we imagined.




I don't know about being down on him, haven't heard anything.  I'm glad Patton and Albers names were kept out of many talks though, but that is just me.  Hirsh was a great pitcher in AAA.  I mean the guy was excellent.  But so was Tim Redding.  I'm not saying Hirsh is Tim Redding-ish as a potential bust... I don't believe that.

I think Hirsh is the centerpiece of the trade, not Taveras and not Buchholz.  Pence is a good replacement in the future for right field.  He may prove to be the best hitter to come up since Lance Berkman and that is a good thing.  So it doesn't bother me at all that Taveras is gone.  Neither Buchholz.  But to add Hirsh to the mix just pushes it to a limit that I think Alkie is right about: for Jason Jennings?

Jon Garland sure, but Jason Jennings?  Maybe the stats are Coors inflated and he'll do much better now that he's away from there.  But he's also a one year rental and that just doesn't go away from the equation for me.





He is signed for 2007.  But as for extensions, is now the right time?  As Jennings looks at what mediocre pitchers are getting paid it seems logical that he'd be asking for a shitload of money right now.  It may be best to wait until much later, mid-season or later, to talk extension.
Goin' for a bus ride.

Bench

  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 16476
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #62 on: December 12, 2006, 07:01:30 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Jennings has to be as good as Pettitte at his best to make this deal worthwile, imo. Scary, scary, scary.




But how many times was Pettitte at his best for Houston?





2005 was one of his best seasons. Jennings certainly out-performed last year, however.
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

Alkie

  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12195
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #63 on: December 12, 2006, 07:03:55 pm »
Last year, Jason Jennings was in the Top 10 in the NL in two categories:

Losses
Most walks

The losses are a function of the run support and his team.  The walks?  From our new #2?  For a guy that only strikes out about 6 guys per 9 IP?  We've been had, boys.

the KEG

  • Disappointing Rookie
  • Posts: 88
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #64 on: December 12, 2006, 07:04:09 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Pup was noticeably quiet about Hirsh, only discussing him in the questioning portion of the conference saying only , "yeah, he is a good prospect." Maybe the organization was a lot more down on Hirsh that we imagined.




I don't know about being down on him, haven't heard anything.  I'm glad Patton and Albers names were kept out of many talks though, but that is just me.  Hirsh was a great pitcher in AAA.  I mean the guy was excellent.  But so was Tim Redding.  I'm not saying Hirsh is Tim Redding-ish as a potential bust... I don't believe that.

I think Hirsh is the centerpiece of the trade, not Taveras and not Buchholz.  Pence is a good replacement in the future for right field.  He may prove to be the best hitter to come up since Lance Berkman and that is a good thing.  So it doesn't bother me at all that Taveras is gone.  Neither Buchholz.  But to add Hirsh to the mix just pushes it to a limit that I think Alkie is right about: for Jason Jennings?

Jon Garland sure, but Jason Jennings?  Maybe the stats are Coors inflated and he'll do much better now that he's away from there.  But he's also a one year rental and that just doesn't go away from the equation for me.






It just also seems to me that our "throw-in" Buchholz is greater than what they threw in.  Then again, I don;t know a damn thing about Asencio, really.  

I'm guessing Jennings may be very re-signable in Drayton's eyes due to the whole Baylor connection.  I hope to hell that's true so it's not a one-year rental.

Alkie

  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12195
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #65 on: December 12, 2006, 07:06:08 pm »
Quote:

I hope to hell that's true so it's not a one-year rental.




I'll be the one to make this statement since I know a lot of other people won't: IF Jennings ends up being a one-year rental, this is one of the worst trades in the history of the franchise.  And no, I'm not trying to be dramatic.  Two Grade A pitching prospects (including our BEST pitching prospect) and a starting CF for one year of a #3/#4 pitcher?  Wow.

DVauthrin

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2929
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #66 on: December 12, 2006, 07:06:31 pm »
Jennings worries me somewhat, but scouts in the astros org must have seen enough to suggest he has number 2 type ability out of coors field.

Like I discussed with you in a past thread, I want Huff back and to trade Ensberg.   If Ensberg is on the team in april, i'll be stunned.   However, one thought did occur to me.  If huff costs 8-9 mil, do the Astros go that route, or do they use that money on a FA SP like suppan, because of a few questions at 4/5 starter.

I still think the jennings deal means huff returns.

Also, could a big reason why the club may not have been so upset about Hirsh was his attitude when called up?  If I remember right, some vets had to put him in his place about not doing an interview after a shellacking and that may not have been the only instance.

Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #67 on: December 12, 2006, 07:08:52 pm »
Quote:

I don't think Jason Jennings is a number two starter.  




I don't know about this.  It all depends on your criteria for a #2.  Mine is someone strong enough to keep you in most of the games you're playing.  Log those innings, keep the team in the game, even if you're one, maybe two runs down.  That saves the pen and gives you a chance to win your fair share.

I've heard some folks say Hirsh was as good as Jennings as a #2.  Again, depends what you mean by a #2.  I think Jennings is a poor man's #2.  He's strong, durable, will log the innings and keep the Astros in most of his games.  I remember when Woody Williams was the #2 guy in the Cardinal rotation behind Matt Morris.  Williams was infamous for bending but never breaking as a starter.  He logged much innings too.  That Cardinal rotation of Morris, Williams and Suppan, along with no-names like Simontachhi, had the most quality starts of all the majors that season.  By far!  The gap was incredible.  And it made their bullpen that much stronger too.

Houston just needs Oswalt to be a stopper as the ACE, Jennings to be a guy who keeps them in games, save the pen, the #3 needs to be somewhere a notch below that.  Then Williams and #5 can handle pitching their fair share and have the bully help them out.

I think the #3 is an item to consider either now or at the mid-season trading deadline.

the KEG

  • Disappointing Rookie
  • Posts: 88
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #68 on: December 12, 2006, 07:11:13 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

I hope to hell that's true so it's not a one-year rental.




I'll be the one to make this statement since I know a lot of other people won't: IF Jennings ends up being a one-year rental, this is one of the worst trades in the history of the franchise.  And no, I'm not trying to be dramatic.  Two Grade A pitching prospects (including our BEST pitching prospect) and a starting CF for one year of a #3/#4 pitcher?  Wow.





I don't remember being this pissed about a deal since the 1993 swap with the Padres.

Bob Sakamano

  • Disappointing Rookie
  • Posts: 82
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #69 on: December 12, 2006, 07:11:33 pm »
I don't think you'll find anyone in the world who considers Buchholz anywhere close to an A level pitching prospect.

For what it's worth, Jennings was the 11th ranked VORP pitcher in all of baseball last season. Yes, it's just one season. But, the fact that his peripherals were good is encouraging because it appears this was more than being lucky (i.e. a lot of balls hit right at a fielder). Instead, his stuff became more effective.

Doesn't mean it's going to last, but it's a good sign.

The Link

HudsonHawk

  • Administrator
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 42689
  • Gentleman About Town
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #70 on: December 12, 2006, 07:13:04 pm »
Quote:

Two Grade A pitching prospects (including our BEST pitching prospect) and a starting CF for one year of a #3/#4 pitcher?  Wow.





I don't think the Astros consider 1) Buchholz a "grade A propsect" nor 2) Hirsh their best.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

BizidyDizidy

  • Pope
  • Posts: 8836
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #71 on: December 12, 2006, 07:13:40 pm »
Quote:

I don't think you'll find anyone in the world who considers Buchholz anywhere close to an A level pitching prospect.

For what it's worth, Jennings was the 11th ranked VORP pitcher in all of baseball last season. Yes, it's just one season. But, the fact that his peripherals were good is encouraging because it appears this was more than being lucky (i.e. a lot of balls hit right at a fielder). Instead, his stuff became more effective.

Doesn't mean it's going to last, but it's a good sign.

The Link





If I knew what the fuck VORP was that would be a lot more comforting.
"My doctor told me to stop having intimate dinners for four. Unless there are three other people."
  -  Orson Welles

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #72 on: December 12, 2006, 07:13:44 pm »
Quote:

I don't think you'll find anyone in the world who considers Buchholz anywhere close to an A level pitching prospect.

For what it's worth, Jennings was the 11th ranked VORP pitcher in all of baseball last season. Yes, it's just one season. But, the fact that his peripherals were good is encouraging because it appears this was more than being lucky (i.e. a lot of balls hit right at a fielder). Instead, his stuff became more effective.

Doesn't mean it's going to last, but it's a good sign.

The Link





I have no idea what a VORP is (is that from Star Trek or something?), but I do agree that Jennings is an excellent candidate to handle the #2 (under the conditions I've laid out for what I consider a good #2).

I think what we're all concerned about is the rental aspect of his tenure here.

DVauthrin

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2929
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #73 on: December 12, 2006, 07:17:50 pm »
I don't think the extension will be a hard sell.   Jennings played at baylor and I don't see him trying to break the bank.

What this tells me is the astros soured on hirsh big time, for whatever reason, or they really thought jennings would step up outside coors field.   Taylor was nice in stretches, but inconsistent.   Buchholz doesn't bother me in the deal.  The key is the extension, and what hirsh does, as far this trade goes.

Btw VORP=Value over replacement player.   Meaning jennings by this "stat" was the 11th most valuable pitcher in MLB in 2006.
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted.

VirtualBob

  • Pope
  • Posts: 5630
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #74 on: December 12, 2006, 07:17:53 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

I don't think you'll find anyone in the world who considers Buchholz anywhere close to an A level pitching prospect.

For what it's worth, Jennings was the 11th ranked VORP pitcher in all of baseball last season. Yes, it's just one season. But, the fact that his peripherals were good is encouraging because it appears this was more than being lucky (i.e. a lot of balls hit right at a fielder). Instead, his stuff became more effective.

Doesn't mean it's going to last, but it's a good sign.

The Link





I have no idea what a VORP is (is that from Star Trek or something?), but I do agree that Jennings is an excellent candidate to handle the #2 (under the conditions I've laid out for what I consider a good #2).

I think what we're all concerned about is the rental aspect of his tenure here.





Twas brillig, and the slithy toves did gyre and gymbal in the wabe
All mangy were the borogroves and the mums wrath forgabe ...

I think there is something about 'Vorp' in the 3rd or 4th stanza.
Up in the Air

S.P. Rodriguez

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2932
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #75 on: December 12, 2006, 07:25:41 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Two Grade A pitching prospects (including our BEST pitching prospect) and a starting CF for one year of a #3/#4 pitcher?  Wow.





I don't think the Astros consider 1) Buchholz a "grade A propsect" nor 2) Hirsh their best.





I agree, because this is the only viewpoint that explains why Houston made this deal.  Hirsh was not a future #2, at best an effective 3/4.  Buchholtz was even lower.   Still, adding in Taveras, this seems like a lot for Jennings and a questionable bullpen arm.
"If you don't read the newspaper you are uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed."

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous, he will not bite you; that is the principal difference between a dog and a man. "

-Mark Twain

littlevisigoth

  • Disappointing Rookie
  • Posts: 62
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #76 on: December 12, 2006, 07:27:02 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

I don't think you'll find anyone in the world who considers Buchholz anywhere close to an A level pitching prospect.

For what it's worth, Jennings was the 11th ranked VORP pitcher in all of baseball last season. Yes, it's just one season. But, the fact that his peripherals were good is encouraging because it appears this was more than being lucky (i.e. a lot of balls hit right at a fielder). Instead, his stuff became more effective.

Doesn't mean it's going to last, but it's a good sign.

The Link





If I knew what the fuck VORP was that would be a lot more comforting.





for pitchers (if i'm not mistaken) VORP is analagous to park-adjusted ERA, and does not consider peripherals or differentiate roles (like positions for hitter's VORP), so it's not as wholistic as the name might insinuate.  for VORP, "value" is all about runs created and runs allowed.  having trouble finding a good link for pitcher's VORP, but maybe somebody else can.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #77 on: December 12, 2006, 07:31:39 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I don't think you'll find anyone in the world who considers Buchholz anywhere close to an A level pitching prospect.

For what it's worth, Jennings was the 11th ranked VORP pitcher in all of baseball last season. Yes, it's just one season. But, the fact that his peripherals were good is encouraging because it appears this was more than being lucky (i.e. a lot of balls hit right at a fielder). Instead, his stuff became more effective.

Doesn't mean it's going to last, but it's a good sign.

The Link





If I knew what the fuck VORP was that would be a lot more comforting.




for pitchers (if i'm not mistaken) VORP is analagous to park-adjusted ERA, and does not consider peripherals or differentiate roles (like positions for hitter's VORP), so it's not as wholistic as the name might insinuate.  for VORP, "value" is all about runs created and runs allowed.  having trouble finding a good link for pitcher's VORP, but maybe somebody else can.




My head hurts.

But if you see a list that has Johann Santana at the top followed by Roy Oswalt, then keep looking at that list... it probably means something.  That Jason Jennings is in there with the likes of Carpenter and Zambrano probably means something.

What?  I don't know, it's like hyroglyphics (sp?) to me.  But it's a list and his name is on it!  Hooray List!

JimR

  • Contributor
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 29345
    • View Profile
    • McGinnis, Lochridge & Kilgore, LLP
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #78 on: December 12, 2006, 07:46:38 pm »
bullshit
Often wrong, but never in doubt.

JaneDoe

  • Contributor
  • Pope
  • Posts: 8603
  • Missing in Action
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #79 on: December 12, 2006, 07:49:30 pm »
Jim, what is your opinion/evaluation of the trade?  Who does Jennings compare to?
"My hammy is a little tight. I wish I was like Ausmus. He's Jewish and isn't allowed to have a pulled hamstring."

JimR

  • Contributor
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 29345
    • View Profile
    • McGinnis, Lochridge & Kilgore, LLP
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #80 on: December 12, 2006, 07:50:46 pm »
you're dramatic without even trying, and it usually is the end of the world approaching. not this time either. chill.

maybe you were in love with Hirsh like Schumstupid is. i was not. Taveras is who i did not want to trade.
Often wrong, but never in doubt.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #81 on: December 12, 2006, 07:51:13 pm »
Quote:

I still think the jennings deal means huff returns.




I would also be in there with you as wanting Huff back now that this deal went down.  Jennings @ 6 million as opposed to Pettitte @ 14 million, plus if you trade away Ensberg's raise may buy you Huff for three years (and if he pro-rates his contract, could still leave wiggle room for some of the non-tenders that will flood the market tomorrow?)

Quote:

Also, could a big reason why the club may not have been so upset about Hirsh was his attitude when called up?  If I remember right, some vets had to put him in his place about not doing an interview after a shellacking and that may not have been the only instance.




Biggio and several vets cleaned out Hirsh's locker room and left only a jock in the stall.  Pinned to the jock, they wrote "Somebody lost their job in order to make room for you to come up here.  Respect the opportunity."  By all accounts, Hirsch got the message.  I will say one thing, Jason Hirsh is a good guy by all accounts, very level headed.  So is Taylor Buchholz.

If you really want to know who brooded just a tad last year before he got his head on straight, that was Willy Taveras.  Either way, I don't think any of the three were malcontents nor problem children at all.  I think this is a case of trading something good for what you consider to be something good in return.

The rental aspect bothers me, but it didn't seem to be a concern for Purpura today.  Maybe McLane is thinking he can charm his way into bringing Jennings into the fold.  Who knows!

JimR

  • Contributor
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 29345
    • View Profile
    • McGinnis, Lochridge & Kilgore, LLP
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #82 on: December 12, 2006, 07:55:39 pm »
that's just crazy. Randy Johnson was the premier pitcher in MLB.
Often wrong, but never in doubt.

JaneDoe

  • Contributor
  • Pope
  • Posts: 8603
  • Missing in Action
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #83 on: December 12, 2006, 07:58:39 pm »
Maybe I am crazy, but I felt like it was too much to give up for a 1/2 season rental.
"My hammy is a little tight. I wish I was like Ausmus. He's Jewish and isn't allowed to have a pulled hamstring."

JimR

  • Contributor
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 29345
    • View Profile
    • McGinnis, Lochridge & Kilgore, LLP
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #84 on: December 12, 2006, 07:59:37 pm »
Hirsh is NOT all that! Jennings is a big upgrade. Hirsh still is a prospect who does not throw all that hard. again, i hate to lose Willy more than Hirsh.
Often wrong, but never in doubt.

schlumburger04

  • Roster Filler
  • Posts: 160
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #85 on: December 12, 2006, 08:00:13 pm »
Quote:


maybe you were in love with Hirsh like Schumstupid is. i was not. Taveras is who i did not want to trade.





thats funny, i think hirsh isnt very good and will be a complete nightmare at coors. buchholz and willy both suck.

jennings isnt anything really special but we'll be much better next year because of this trade. the point is, though, we should of gotten alot more for what we traded.

jaklewein

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 3612
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #86 on: December 12, 2006, 08:01:51 pm »
Wow...took a long time to read threw all the posts.  My take:  I'm fine with the trade.  The Astros had two ways to approach this season after Andy left...1) sell the farm to make the team as competitive as possible now...or 2) fill in the holes with what they had and maybe a marginal FAgent and then play wait and see.  At that point maybe guys like Hirsh and Buch step it up and you'd try to improve the team at the deadline...or maybe you just wait till '08 to add a couple vets and make a run.

I was hoping for the latter...but I have to hand it to Drayton and Pupura.  Some have already called this a move of desperation...I'm going to look at it as a move built on confidence...a move that took balls.  I don't think this is the end...there's more to the Pup's grand plan than just this.  I feel confident he'll add a least one more impact player.  Hopefully a bat (i.e. Huff) or another SP (i.e.  Suppan)...heck, maybe both.  Again this move was balls-y.  I don't think the Pup can stop here.

Last note...only thing that really does rub me the wrong way about this deal...I want to know what kind of bat we could've got with this haul last July for the stretch run?  If the Stros would've added a bat like Lee last year around that time...you'd of had to of liked their chances.  Not at the playoffs...but at the whole fuck'n thing.

HudsonHawk

  • Administrator
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 42689
  • Gentleman About Town
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #87 on: December 12, 2006, 08:04:05 pm »
Quote:


thats funny, i think hirsh isnt very good and will be a complete nightmare at coors. buchholz and willy both suck.

jennings isnt anything really special but we'll be much better next year because of this trade. the point is, though, we should of gotten alot more for what we traded.






So in other words, the Astros should have gotten "a lot more" for a player who "will be a nightmare" and two players who "suck"?  Here's to you, Mr. Preposterous Trade Suggestor...
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

tophfar

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #88 on: December 12, 2006, 08:04:20 pm »
Quote:

thats funny, i think hirsh isnt very good and will be a complete nightmare at coors. buchholz and willy both suck.

jennings isnt anything really special but we'll be much better next year because of this trade. the point is, though, we should of gotten alot more for what we traded.





in all seriousness, if they, in your opinion, suck.  why would the astros have gotten more from them?

if they are that much better that we over paid, as you also claim, then they obviously couldn't suck now then could they?

and if jennings isnt that special how are we going to be "much better" next year?

and if he isnt anything special how did we overpay by trading players that sucked?
Here are just a few of the key ingredients: dynamite, pole vaulting, laughing gas, choppers - can you see how incredible this is going to be?

JaneDoe

  • Contributor
  • Pope
  • Posts: 8603
  • Missing in Action
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #89 on: December 12, 2006, 08:04:52 pm »
Quote:

Quote:


thats funny, i think hirsh isnt very good and will be a complete nightmare at coors. buchholz and willy both suck.

jennings isnt anything really special but we'll be much better next year because of this trade. the point is, though, we should of gotten alot more for what we traded.






So in other words, the Astros should have gotten "a lot more" for a player who "will be a nightmare" and two players who "suck"?  Here's to you, Mr. Preposterous Trade Suggestor...





I thought that was Tod the Bod.
"My hammy is a little tight. I wish I was like Ausmus. He's Jewish and isn't allowed to have a pulled hamstring."

tophfar

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #90 on: December 12, 2006, 08:07:26 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:


thats funny, i think hirsh isnt very good and will be a complete nightmare at coors. buchholz and willy both suck.

jennings isnt anything really special but we'll be much better next year because of this trade. the point is, though, we should of gotten alot more for what we traded.






So in other words, the Astros should have gotten "a lot more" for a player who "will be a nightmare" and two players who "suck"?  Here's to you, Mr. Preposterous Trade Suggestor...




I thought that was Tod the Bod.




while ttb might get outlandish, he generally doesnt have this kind of circular anti-logic.
Here are just a few of the key ingredients: dynamite, pole vaulting, laughing gas, choppers - can you see how incredible this is going to be?

Nate in IA

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 4279
  • To the stars...
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #91 on: December 12, 2006, 08:07:41 pm »
I like this trade.  Like JimR, I hate to see Willy go but if we've got some speed ready to come up, I'm okay with it.  I really like Jason Jennings as a pitcher.  I think he knows what he's doing and executes really well.  It was almost freaky last year how well Jeff Francis was supported and Jason Jennings was not.  Just one of those weird things you notice during a year.  Still, I think Jason Jennings will be a great addition to the rotation.  It may take him a little bit to re-adjust to sea level conditions but I think we'll all be satisfied with his performance next year.

Now to get a serviceable 3/4.  I'll enjoy watching the Astros next year.

schlumburger04

  • Roster Filler
  • Posts: 160
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #92 on: December 12, 2006, 08:10:31 pm »
hirsh is our top prospect, buchholz used to be our top prospect and willy is really really fast. all things teams might conider valuable that i really dont

5-6 years of hirsh should of been enough to get 1 year of jennings. thats a very fair deal

edit: replacing willy with burke will improve the team also, just another bonus

cougar

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 1318
  • I dare you
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #93 on: December 12, 2006, 08:14:51 pm »
Well, I'm not as avid a MLB fan as a lot of people on the board, so I don't know a whole lot about Jennings.  I do know that he was a sinker ball pitcher throwing at a park that is not kind to sinker ball pitchers.  Throwing at sea level should help his primary pitch quite a bit, leading to a more effective pitcher.

I wasn't too high of Taylor and marginally higher on Hirsch, but I'm not jumping up and down at the thought of trading Willy.  I can see why the Rockies wanted him (someone has to patrol the cavernesque center field out there) and I suppose the Astros wanted a spot open for whichever of Burke and Lane has the better spring.  Then, when Bidge has gone off to Bermuda with Bagwell, Burke can go over to 2nd and Lane or Pence can take over CF on a full time basis (barring a trade for a Baldelli or Wells type player).  Assuming Jennings signs an extension, I suppose I'll fall on the "cautiously optimistic" side of the fence.

Duder

  • Roster Filler
  • Posts: 203
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #94 on: December 12, 2006, 08:16:40 pm »
In my opinion it hurts most to lose Taveras, especially since Lee and Scott will probably be manning the outfeild corners next year.

tophfar

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #95 on: December 12, 2006, 08:17:11 pm »
Quote:

all things teams might conider valuable that i really dont




wow.  awesome.
Here are just a few of the key ingredients: dynamite, pole vaulting, laughing gas, choppers - can you see how incredible this is going to be?

tophfar

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 1049
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #96 on: December 12, 2006, 08:18:42 pm »
Quote:

In my opinion it hurts most to lose Taveras, especially since Lee and Scott will probably be manning the outfeild corners next year.




yup.
Here are just a few of the key ingredients: dynamite, pole vaulting, laughing gas, choppers - can you see how incredible this is going to be?

Sleepy

  • Veteran Role Player
  • Posts: 335
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #97 on: December 12, 2006, 08:27:29 pm »
If he gets an extension, I have some optimism.  I followed Jennings fairly closely last year (fantasy team and all that crap), and I really liked watching him.  He had games where he was dominant.  Despite walking too many, he kept the ball in the park (only four HRs in the second half).  He usually pitched at least 6 innings, and he's headed into his prime.

I'd be much happier with Clemens as the #2, though....

Bench

  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 16476
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #98 on: December 12, 2006, 08:31:48 pm »
Quote:

I like this trade.  Like JimR, I hate to see Willy go but if we've got some speed ready to come up, I'm okay with it.  I really like Jason Jennings as a pitcher.  I think he knows what he's doing and executes really well.  It was almost freaky last year how well Jeff Francis was supported and Jason Jennings was not.  Just one of those weird things you notice during a year.  Still, I think Jason Jennings will be a great addition to the rotation.  It may take him a little bit to re-adjust to sea level conditions but I think we'll all be satisfied with his performance next year.

Now to get a serviceable 3/4.  I'll enjoy watching the Astros next year.





I'm with you and Noe regarding Jennings as a serviceable number 2.

The drawbacks are:

(1) the fact that Jennings is a FA after next year, and that may pressure Pup and Co. to overpay for an extension in order to justify the trade (see Benson, Kris and Mets, the goddamn fucking); and

(2) the defensive hit taken in an important position that MMPUS makes even more important, especially when the CFer is surrounded by Lee and Luke. Burke has the speed to cover the ground, but there will be a learning curve to playing the position. Chris has a lot of hard work ahead of him, but from what I've seen of him he's more than willing to work hard. Nothing will replace the luxury of Willy's cannon. Also, the offensive speed just won't be there anymore. Also, as Biggio wears down over the course of the season and passes H3K, is Lane getting more and more time playing center an asset to the team? I'm looking forward to hearing reports of Pence's progress as a centerfielder.

I think it's a bold trade, but hardly the disaster that some make it out to be.
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #99 on: December 12, 2006, 08:41:09 pm »
Quote:

I like this trade.  Like JimR, I hate to see Willy go but if we've got some speed ready to come up, I'm okay with it.  I really like Jason Jennings as a pitcher.  I think he knows what he's doing and executes really well.  It was almost freaky last year how well Jeff Francis was supported and Jason Jennings was not.  Just one of those weird things you notice during a year.  Still, I think Jason Jennings will be a great addition to the rotation.  It may take him a little bit to re-adjust to sea level conditions but I think we'll all be satisfied with his performance next year.

Now to get a serviceable 3/4.  I'll enjoy watching the Astros next year.





212 IPs from Jennings last year and this while pitching in Coors Field.  And an ERA a little above 3 plus?  Oh come on now, that is not only a #2, that is a pretty darn good #2.  Other than Oswalt, who gave Houston those sort of IPs from the starters in 2006?

No. One.

Pettitte at #2 wasn't going to give you 212 IPs in 2007, that's for sure.  This sort of pitching makes a bullpen that is already good... GREAT!  Jennings as a rental is not a very good deal, but as a quality #2 I have no doubts at all!  IN fact, he's a freaking great acquire because he is EGGSZACTLY what a #2 is all about!  And because you save the bullpen with a workhorse starter, you can support your young #5 and possibly #4.  The pressure to be something other than just a good 5 to 6 inning pitcher can go a very long way.  That and having Dave Wallace at the helm as well.

The key is having the workhorse starters at the top.  Oswalt and Jennings fit that bill better than Oswalt and Pettitte and I'm not saying this because I have a little bit of distaste for Pettitte right now.  It's because it's true.

HudsonHawk

  • Administrator
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 42689
  • Gentleman About Town
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #100 on: December 12, 2006, 08:48:40 pm »
Quote:


5-6 years of hirsh should of been enough to get 1 year of jennings. thats a very fair deal





So 5-6 nightmares should merit one wet dream?
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

DVauthrin

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2929
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #101 on: December 12, 2006, 08:59:21 pm »
Another plus is you have two pitchers that can more than handle the bat in williams/jennings.  Not saying it's a big deal, but it's a nice luxury to have.

If they can resign huff and trade ensberg for a 4th starter, I'd be happy with this offseason.   I think both of those should be doable.
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted.

schlumburger04

  • Roster Filler
  • Posts: 160
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #102 on: December 12, 2006, 09:12:45 pm »
The Link

"Jennings becomes Houston's No. 2 starter behind Roy Oswalt, joined in the rotation by Wandy Rodriguez."

what an odd thing to say

HudsonHawk

  • Administrator
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 42689
  • Gentleman About Town
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #103 on: December 12, 2006, 09:18:42 pm »
Quote:

The Link

"Jennings becomes Houston's No. 2 starter behind Roy Oswalt, joined in the rotation by Wandy Rodriguez."

what an odd thing to say






ESPN saying something stupid surprises you?
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

schlumburger04

  • Roster Filler
  • Posts: 160
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #104 on: December 12, 2006, 09:24:00 pm »
wandy had the same number of wins that jennings had this past year

HudsonHawk

  • Administrator
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 42689
  • Gentleman About Town
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #105 on: December 12, 2006, 09:25:27 pm »
Quote:

wandy had the same number of wins that jennings had this past year





Being with you is just one epiphany after another.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

JaneDoe

  • Contributor
  • Pope
  • Posts: 8603
  • Missing in Action
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #106 on: December 12, 2006, 09:25:32 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

The Link

"Jennings becomes Houston's No. 2 starter behind Roy Oswalt, joined in the rotation by Wandy Rodriguez."

what an odd thing to say





ESPN saying something stupid surprises you?




No.  
"My hammy is a little tight. I wish I was like Ausmus. He's Jewish and isn't allowed to have a pulled hamstring."

JaneDoe

  • Contributor
  • Pope
  • Posts: 8603
  • Missing in Action
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #107 on: December 12, 2006, 09:26:46 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

wandy had the same number of wins that jennings had this past year





Being with you is just one epiphany after another.





Multiple epiphanies?  Impressive.
"My hammy is a little tight. I wish I was like Ausmus. He's Jewish and isn't allowed to have a pulled hamstring."

schlumburger04

  • Roster Filler
  • Posts: 160
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #108 on: December 12, 2006, 09:31:53 pm »
 
Quote:

"I wouldn't have traded Hirsh for Jennings straight up," one executive said.




interesting

Burzmali

  • Veteran Role Player
  • Posts: 262
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #109 on: December 12, 2006, 09:32:38 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I don't think you'll find anyone in the world who considers Buchholz anywhere close to an A level pitching prospect.

For what it's worth, Jennings was the 11th ranked VORP pitcher in all of baseball last season. Yes, it's just one season. But, the fact that his peripherals were good is encouraging because it appears this was more than being lucky (i.e. a lot of balls hit right at a fielder). Instead, his stuff became more effective.

Doesn't mean it's going to last, but it's a good sign.

The Link





If I knew what the fuck VORP was that would be a lot more comforting.




for pitchers (if i'm not mistaken) VORP is analagous to park-adjusted ERA, and does not consider peripherals or differentiate roles (like positions for hitter's VORP), so it's not as wholistic as the name might insinuate.  for VORP, "value" is all about runs created and runs allowed.  having trouble finding a good link for pitcher's VORP, but maybe somebody else can.




My head hurts.

But if you see a list that has Johann Santana at the top followed by Roy Oswalt, then keep looking at that list... it probably means something.  That Jason Jennings is in there with the likes of Carpenter and Zambrano probably means something.

What?  I don't know, it's like hyroglyphics (sp?) to me.  But it's a list and his name is on it!  Hooray List!




Put me in the cautiously optimistic camp.

The VORP ranking coupled with the fact that he is a sinkerballer makes me think this could turn out to be a great trade.

schlumburger04

  • Roster Filler
  • Posts: 160
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #110 on: December 12, 2006, 09:38:28 pm »
 
Quote:

 the fact that he is a sinkerballer makes me think this could turn out to be a great trade.




i too was optimistic about his sinkerballishness but his g/f suggets hes not that great at actually getting the ball on the ground.

DVauthrin

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2929
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #111 on: December 12, 2006, 09:44:20 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

"I wouldn't have traded Hirsh for Jennings straight up," one executive said.




interesting





Does that executive run the Astros?   Does that executive have the same goals the astros have?   Heck I could go interview a small market team who would obviously gamble on Hirsh because of his salary than trade for Jennings, and they would say that.

The worst part of the deal to me is the defensive downgrade in CF, honestly.   Buchholz is ok in stretches but gets hammered way too easily and Hirsh kept hanging pitch after pitch after pitch in his big league stint this season.

The bottom line is the astros are a better team today for 2007 than they were before this deal.   Add a Huff resigning(plus jennings extension) and perhaps a nice veteran 3rd/4th starter and they are ready to roll.  

It was a steep price to pay, but the organization deserves the benefit of the doubt.  They are one of the best run organizations in MLB.
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted.

SeanBergmanRules

  • Disappointing Rookie
  • Posts: 84
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #112 on: December 12, 2006, 09:48:44 pm »
The problem is Jennings was a better pitcher, ERA-wise, at Coors last year than he was on the road.  In the past, Coors has inflated his ERA, but not by much.
I don't know how valid of a concern this is, but theres also the possibility that attempting to adjust to Coors has screwed with his mechanics a bit.

Rebel Jew

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 3469
    • View Profile
    • Rebel Jew
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #113 on: December 12, 2006, 09:53:06 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

It's def. the deal as reported by Rosenthal.




Just heard it.  Main quote from Purpura "A deal isn't a good deal unless it hurts both sides".  That is one way of saying win-win is a good deal.  They must have high expectation from Jennings to pay this much or lower expectations from either Hirsh or Buchholz.  Taveras is really not that big a deal to me, although I love watching him play.

It's giving up two young pitchers for a rental that makes it bit unsettling.  But I'm not the Houston Astros nor work for them nor know anywhere near the things they know.  If Chicago didn't want these three for Garland, then Colorado benefitted from it.  Obviously if they were willing to trade the three to Chicago, they just as willing to trade the three to Colorado, even if it is Jennings.

Okay, so let's rock and roll now!  I think the Astros are ready to go now.  I expect Burke in center, Lane/Scott in right, Lee in left, Palmeiro on the bench, somebody else (maybe Bruntlett) as #5.  Ensberg/Lamb at third, Everett at short, Ausmu/Gimenez behind the dish, Biggio/sometimes Burke at second and Berkman/Lamb at first.

Is there one player missing in there that you can see?

Oh, btw - I think Chris Sampson will get the job as #5 now.  He's got a clear shot at it.  Pence, Albers and Guiterrez in AAA as emergency callups next year.

Sounds about right (except for that Roger Clemens fella... wonder about him?  Hmmmm...)




I don't know if I can, or need to, read the rest of this thread.  This post sums it up for me, Noe.  However possible, The Astros have gone out and built a contending team this offseason thaqt addresses much of their weaknesses from '06.  I've seen Jennings pitch a handful of times, and every time it's been a quality start.  I don't know if my view gels with an average Rukkakes fan impression, but the guy has always struck me as a solid mlb pitcher.  I've seen a lot of talk about what a #2 starter is, and, frankly, I still don't understand.  The goal is to have 5 good pitchers.  The Astros got a good pitcher today.  After opening weekend, the number of the pitcher is purely posterity.  I'm still pissed that the fucking Jakes one the world series this year.  the fucking JakeS!

HudsonHawk

  • Administrator
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 42689
  • Gentleman About Town
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #114 on: December 12, 2006, 10:05:53 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

"I wouldn't have traded Hirsh for Jennings straight up," one executive said.




interesting






In the way a shiny red rubber ball is interesting.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

Alkie

  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12195
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #115 on: December 12, 2006, 10:47:05 pm »
 Hirsh Named Top Astros Prospect on 11/30/2006

Hirsh top Astro prospect for '06.

  Buchholz top Astro prospect for '04.

All we read all year was how Hirsh was an untouchable super-stud starter of the future.  He wasn't available for anyone at the deadline.  I'll grant you Buchholz wasn't on anyone's A-list at this point in his career, but you can't tell me that Jason Hirsh, as recently as a week ago, wasn't considered the Astros best pitching prospect.

In any case, what we think is irrelevant as usual; but it sure seems like we gave up too much for too little.  Obviously, if we could have done better, TP would have done that; so I suppose I shouldn't be too disappointed.  I just wish they'd have gotten something more than a year of Jennings.  Just doesn't seem like we got perceived-value for perceived-value.

jaklewein

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 3612
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #116 on: December 12, 2006, 11:00:17 pm »
 Obviously, if we could have done better, TP would have done that; so I suppose I shouldn't be too disappointed.

Good point...now move away from the dead horse.

VirtualBob

  • Pope
  • Posts: 5630
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #117 on: December 12, 2006, 11:01:49 pm »
Quote:

Hirsh is NOT all that! Jennings is a big upgrade. Hirsh still is a prospect who does not throw all that hard. again, i hate to lose Willy more than Hirsh.




I agree ... Willy was rushed to the bigs and didn't become an instant star, but he is fast, has a good arm, is improving his already adequate defense and will (imo) eventually learn how to get on base more.  I would rather be watching him do all this in an Astros uniform.
Up in the Air

jaklewein

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 3612
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #118 on: December 12, 2006, 11:12:49 pm »
Quote:

Asencio was a starter before... and really didn't pitch much last year.  I guess he is still comming back from Tommy John, so he is a wild card, but even before the surgery he didn't seem to be anything special.

I figure he will get a look-see at the #5 spot.





Long time ago, but in 2002 (while with the Royals), BBA stated that he had the best changeup in the system.  Always nice to have a good change up in your bag of tricks.  Hopefully that's something he never lost.

Michael N

  • Prime Time Player
  • Posts: 799
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #119 on: December 13, 2006, 12:08:15 am »
Quote:

The problem is Jennings was a better pitcher, ERA-wise, at Coors last year than he was on the road.  In the past, Coors has inflated his ERA, but not by much.
I don't know how valid of a concern this is, but theres also the possibility that attempting to adjust to Coors has screwed with his mechanics a bit.





Jennings' road ERA last year was 3.97 and was better than Pettitte's overall ERA in 2006. Doesn't sound like much of a problem to me considering many hoped Pettitte would return to fill the role of #2 behind Oswalt.

I'm in the camp of Purp not being done. I don't think Huff will be back and Ensberg is the likely player to be shipped for additional pitching. Frankly, I'm fine with Lamb and Bruntlett sharing 3B if it means Houston can get another quality innings-eater for the rotation.

As an aside - hopefully Ascencio can stay healthy and be productive for Houston but I sure would have liked to have had Ian Stewart.
Cosmic American Soul

Duman

  • Contributor
  • Pope
  • Posts: 5446
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #120 on: December 13, 2006, 12:20:18 am »
Quote:

Quote:

"I wouldn't have traded Hirsh for Jennings straight up," one executive said.




interesting





That was in the article you linked to at the beginning of this thread.  Now you are acting like it backs up what you say?  I thought you had just stole the line from the article to begin with.
Always ready to go to a game.

cc

  • Prime Time Player
  • Posts: 949
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #121 on: December 13, 2006, 12:31:13 am »
Quote:

Quote:

The problem is Jennings was a better pitcher, ERA-wise, at Coors last year than he was on the road.  In the past, Coors has inflated his ERA, but not by much.
I don't know how valid of a concern this is, but theres also the possibility that attempting to adjust to Coors has screwed with his mechanics a bit.





Jennings' road ERA last year was 3.97 and was better than Pettitte's overall ERA in 2006. Doesn't sound like much of a problem to me considering many hoped Pettitte would return to fill the role of #2 behind Oswalt.

I'm in the camp of Purp not being done. I don't think Huff will be back and Ensberg is the likely player to be shipped for additional pitching. Frankly, I'm fine with Lamb and Bruntlett sharing 3B if it means Houston can get another quality innings-eater for the rotation.

As an aside - hopefully Ascencio can stay healthy and be productive for Houston but I sure would have liked to have had Ian Stewart.



So you don't think Purpura is preparing to pencil in Ensberg as the everyday guy?  He may have just been dissembling, but on the radio today he was talking about how Morgan deserves (yes, he used that word) a shot to prove that he can be the Ensberg of 2005 again.

And as far as quality innings-eater, are you in the pro-Suppan camp, if he comes in at a reasonable price?
"I'm against the knee-jerk dismissal of knee-jerk reactions."

Cnote

  • Roster Filler
  • Posts: 170
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #122 on: December 13, 2006, 12:36:42 am »
Quote:

Quote:

The problem is Jennings was a better pitcher, ERA-wise, at Coors last year than he was on the road.  In the past, Coors has inflated his ERA, but not by much.
I don't know how valid of a concern this is, but theres also the possibility that attempting to adjust to Coors has screwed with his mechanics a bit.





Jennings' road ERA last year was 3.97 and was better than Pettitte's overall ERA in 2006. Doesn't sound like much of a problem to me considering many hoped Pettitte would return to fill the role of #2 behind Oswalt.

I'm in the camp of Purp not being done. I don't think Huff will be back and Ensberg is the likely player to be shipped for additional pitching. Frankly, I'm fine with Lamb and Bruntlett sharing 3B if it means Houston can get another quality innings-eater for the rotation.

As an aside - hopefully Ascencio can stay healthy and be productive for Houston but I sure would have liked to have had Ian Stewart.





Jennings for his carrer at MMPUS is 0-3 with a 10.47 era, 6 HR, in 16.1 ip, I hope that was more of a result of our boys owning him rather than a factor of the park.  Each start was miserable the best was last year apperance, with 5.2 ip with 5 earned.  

That aside last yr minus a few early and late season starts he was nails.  I truley hope thats a sign of things to come.

Does anyone recall those 3 starts?
Shocks...Pegs...Lucky!

strobum

  • Roster Filler
  • Posts: 121
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #123 on: December 13, 2006, 12:47:52 am »
So, for a guy who really doesn't give up a ton of homeruns, does anyone find it troubling that he's given up six in just three career starts at MMPUS?

Also, the whole, "he'll be a much better pitcher outside of Coors" argument doesn't really hold up. For his career, Jennings is 27-34 with a 4.37 ERA on the road.

I'm with Alkie on this one. Let's hope the Astros hold off on that contract extension. They may be happy to part ways after 2007.

ValpoCory

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2461
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #124 on: December 13, 2006, 12:52:50 am »
I'm excited to go to a good ballclub and a team with playoff aspirations every year," Jennings said during a conference call. "I am looking forward to a new opportunity with a new team. It's almost like a breath of fresh air...."


Sorry, I know it's a cheap shot, but you don't often hear someone going from Denver, Colorado to Houston call it "a breath of fresh air".

stubbyc

  • Veteran Role Player
  • Posts: 497
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #125 on: December 13, 2006, 12:53:32 am »
Quote:

So, for a guy who really doesn't give up a ton of homeruns, does anyone find it troubling that he's given up six in just three career starts at MMPUS?

Also, the whole, "he'll be a much better pitcher outside of Coors" argument doesn't really hold up. For his career, Jennings is 27-34 with a 4.37 ERA on the road.

I'm with Alkie on this one. Let's hope the Astros hold off on that contract extension. They may be happy to part ways after 2007.





1. Coors is not a huge hitters park just because it inflates HRs.

2. You can't always look at a players road stats and assume you're getting an accurate picture. You're ignoring half the data that is there.

3. This deal looks a lot better with an extension than without one assuming the extension isn't for an insane amount of money.

Michael N

  • Prime Time Player
  • Posts: 799
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #126 on: December 13, 2006, 12:55:36 am »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

The problem is Jennings was a better pitcher, ERA-wise, at Coors last year than he was on the road.  In the past, Coors has inflated his ERA, but not by much.
I don't know how valid of a concern this is, but theres also the possibility that attempting to adjust to Coors has screwed with his mechanics a bit.





Jennings' road ERA last year was 3.97 and was better than Pettitte's overall ERA in 2006. Doesn't sound like much of a problem to me considering many hoped Pettitte would return to fill the role of #2 behind Oswalt.

I'm in the camp of Purp not being done. I don't think Huff will be back and Ensberg is the likely player to be shipped for additional pitching. Frankly, I'm fine with Lamb and Bruntlett sharing 3B if it means Houston can get another quality innings-eater for the rotation.

As an aside - hopefully Ascencio can stay healthy and be productive for Houston but I sure would have liked to have had Ian Stewart.


So you don't think Purpura is preparing to pencil in Ensberg as the everyday guy?  He may have just been dissembling, but on the radio today he was talking about how Morgan deserves (yes, he used that word) a shot to prove that he can be the Ensberg of 2005 again.

And as far as quality innings-eater, are you in the pro-Suppan camp, if he comes in at a reasonable price?




Certainly Morgan is penciled in as the OD starter. If, however, Tim's still shopping for pitching, and I hope he is, I believe he'd unload Ensberg. If Houston could keep Ensberg and get Suppan at a reasonable price, though, sure I'd be in favor.

That'd give Houston 4 guys in the rotation we could reasonably expect to throw 180 or more innings, 3 of whom (Oswalt, Jennings and Suppan) are really consistent ground ball pitchers. It's also worth noting that in most of the last 5 years these guys have better than league average ERAs (park adjusted) with Jennings seemingly heading into his prime.

It's not an awe inspiring rotation but a damn solid one.
Cosmic American Soul

Ty in Tampa

  • Contributor
  • Pope
  • Posts: 9111
  • You just gotta keep livin' man, L-I-V-I-N
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #127 on: December 13, 2006, 01:01:18 am »
Quote:

Sorry, I know it's a cheap shot, but you don't often hear someone going from Denver, Colorado to Houston call it "a breath of fresh air".




Never been to Denver on a stagnant summer day, huh?
"You want me broken. You want me dead.
I'm living rent-free in the back of your head."

Michael N

  • Prime Time Player
  • Posts: 799
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #128 on: December 13, 2006, 01:05:44 am »
Quote:



It's not an awe inspiring rotation but a damn solid one.





I think of it as Roy Oswalt followed by Shane Reynolds, Shane Reynolds and Shane Reynolds...
Cosmic American Soul

VirtualBob

  • Pope
  • Posts: 5630
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #129 on: December 13, 2006, 01:15:03 am »
Brandon Duckworthless is available ... How would he be as a #3?

 Link to MLB.com transactions
Up in the Air

Gizzmonic

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 4588
  • Space City Carbohydrate
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #130 on: December 13, 2006, 01:17:23 am »
Allow me to play devil in a blue dress for a second-

I really don't like this trade because :

1. The Astros now have a weak defensive outfield.  Lane doesn't have the range, Burke doesn't know how to play outfield well enough.  Lee, Scott, and Burke might be the worst collection of outfield arms in the National League.  I haven't seen Pence, but everything I've read says that he's a left fielder.  Great defense up the middle was a huge part of the Astros' runs in '04 and '05.  

2. Hirsch looked pretty good.  He could develop into a middle-of-the-rotation innings-eater just like Jennings.  Although it might be a bit tough pitching at Coors as a fly-ball type.  

3. Only one year of Jennings.  He's going to be a free agent for the first time, and with salaries the way they are, he's going to want to test the market.  Yet the Astros lose a starting CF, a top flight pitching prospect and another possible prospect, for one year?

Of course,  it's impossible to fully judge this deal, and even this off season, for some time to come.  Hopefully there's a deal out there for a good defensive CF, this team badly needs one.
Grab another Coke and let's die

Michael N

  • Prime Time Player
  • Posts: 799
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #131 on: December 13, 2006, 01:23:23 am »
Quote:

Brandon Duckworthless is available ... How would he be as a #3?

 Link to MLB.com transactions





Worthless?
Cosmic American Soul

Holly

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 1394
    • View Profile
    • The Dutton Family
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #132 on: December 13, 2006, 01:41:30 am »
Quote:

Quote:

Brandon Duckworthless is available ... How would he be as a #3?

 Link to MLB.com transactions





Worthless?





Ew, no kidding. Reminds me of some inanely immature auto-nicknames which sprang forth with great ease at certain other fansites.
Don't put the baby in the bulldozer.

Navin R Johnson

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 4882
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #133 on: December 13, 2006, 01:43:55 am »
 
Quote:



If I knew what the fuck VORP was that would be a lot more comforting.

 





It is so complicated it is calculated using this  LINK

An outfield of LEE-Lane-Scott is putrid.  There has to be another deal in the works.
There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.

DVauthrin

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2929
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #134 on: December 13, 2006, 01:58:23 am »
Quote:

So, for a guy who really doesn't give up a ton of homeruns, does anyone find it troubling that he's given up six in just three career starts at MMPUS?

Also, the whole, "he'll be a much better pitcher outside of Coors" argument doesn't really hold up. For his career, Jennings is 27-34 with a 4.37 ERA on the road.

I'm with Alkie on this one. Let's hope the Astros hold off on that contract extension. They may be happy to part ways after 2007.





4.37 era is not bad.   The win/loss record is a direct effect of pitching for one of the worst teams in MLB.

I still think they bring huff back and deal morgan.   My sense right now is the market for Aubrey is very limited(it's mid december and the interest for him seems very minute at best) and they just freed up some money to resign him.     Plus you could use ensberg to trade for something you need if you wanted and than the payroll difference is minimized.  

Purpura wants a number 5 hitter.   He has a solid one sitting in his lap in Huff.  He freed up 6 mil to use to extend him.   Get the deal done, and let's have the best 3-4-5 punch since bags-berkman-kent.   Then find out who wants to gamble on Ensberg and what kind of pitcher they will part with for his services, and get the best starter possible for morgan.
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted.

DVauthrin

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2929
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #135 on: December 13, 2006, 02:07:22 am »
Quote:

Allow me to play devil in a blue dress for a second-

I really don't like this trade because :


2. Hirsch looked pretty good.  He could develop into a middle-of-the-rotation innings-eater just like Jennings.  Although it might be a bit tough pitching at Coors as a fly-ball type.  

 





You and I have a different definition of good.   Jason Hirsh was horrible for the most part in his short big league stint last year.   He left fat pitches over the middle of the plate constantly and allowed a ton of homeruns consquently.  His first start vs SD was like that, as was the game at Cincy.   He did not look good at all at the big league level last year.     Minor leagues sure, but not MLB level.

And could be doesn't help the Astros in 2007 now does it?   I want my owner to always want to contend year in year out, and that is what this deal is all about in my eyes.  

I also expect a contract extension due to jennings texas connection provided he pitches well.
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted.

Rammer33

  • Disappointing Rookie
  • Posts: 91
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #136 on: December 13, 2006, 03:02:47 am »
I think Jennings is going to be a solid number 2; actually I think as highly of Jennings as I do Garland ? obviously his numbers are skewed by coors but I tend to think you can?t just look at home/road splits because I think pitchers tend to adjust for coors and the adverse affect bleeds in to their road performances as well (although to a lesser degree obviously) ? any way my two cents - I think Jennings will outshine many pitchers next season with better reputations now that he is out from the handicapping effect of coors field and the team that played in it ?

As for what the stros lost I have never been high on Willy and thought to a degree he was more show than results (ie exciting player whose style made it easy to overlook his offensive productivity or lack of) ? I didn?t really think Taylor B would ever get there ? but admittedly I can?t say I have watched Hirsh enough to have an educated opinion (so I?ll defer to others)? although what I did see oddly enough he reminded me of Elarton ?

I think the stros gave up some potential, sure, but nothing IMO they couldn't part with and I am not really sure I see it coming back to bite them ...

Arky Vaughan

  • Administrator
  • Pope
  • Posts: 6335
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #137 on: December 13, 2006, 03:42:16 am »
Jennings, 2004-2006:
Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   4.93  10.6   4.8  1.03   5.5
Road   4.50   8.9   3.5  0.83   6.3
Jennings, 2006:
Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   3.56   8.8   4.0  0.80   5.8
Road   3.97   8.7   3.2  0.65   6.2
In 2004, the Rockies and their opponents scored 41 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere, and in 2005 they scored 29 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. That changed drastically in 2006, when they scored just 15 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. Coors Field used to play something like the Moon. Last season, it played more like Cincinnati, Kansas City or Phoenix.

schlumburger04

  • Roster Filler
  • Posts: 160
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #138 on: December 13, 2006, 03:44:00 am »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

"I wouldn't have traded Hirsh for Jennings straight up," one executive said.




interesting




That was in the article you linked to at the beginning of this thread.  Now you are acting like it backs up what you say?  I thought you had just stole the line from the article to begin with.




the article i linked to was like 2 paragraphs long at the time, chill out.

fyi: i happen to not agree with this executive

Jose Cruz III

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 4094
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #139 on: December 13, 2006, 10:09:05 am »
And twice the ERA. Oh the horror.
Unga bungaed by the BBGs.

"No. Humans will die out. We're weak. Dinosaurs survived on rotten flesh. You got diarrhea last week from a Wendy's."

toddthebod

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 3385
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #140 on: December 13, 2006, 10:18:20 am »
 
Quote:

I sure would have liked to have had Ian Stewart




Didn't he sing "Year of the Cat"?

Yeah, that's a pretty wicked song.  I'd like to have him on my team as well.
Boom!

Tralfaz

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2223
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #141 on: December 13, 2006, 10:39:17 am »
Hate to see Willy go, but don't forget, his agent is satan so maybe that played into this a little.

Buchholz and Hirsh got the worst of this deal, imo.  

I like Albers as much as either though. In what I've seen of him,  he looks very tough mentally and physically.  He throws hard but hits the wall a little to quick. Hopefully his stamina will be addressed and improved this year.

Now, what about the line up.  Specifically, the #2 and #6 spots.  Assuming Biggio is your lead off hitter and Ensberg is the OD 3B, does Garner bat Burke #2 and Ensberg #6 (using Burke for speed and hope for '05 Ensberg)or the other way around (giving Ensberg the chance to get paid for walks and Burke for pop)?
RO RASROS!

JimR

  • Contributor
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 29345
    • View Profile
    • McGinnis, Lochridge & Kilgore, LLP
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #142 on: December 13, 2006, 11:05:49 am »
Burke at the top of the order

sign Huff today

trade Ensberg

...since you asked....
Often wrong, but never in doubt.

Froback

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2253
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #143 on: December 13, 2006, 11:27:41 am »
Seen alot of people talking about trading Ensberg in this thread, but the question keeps jumping in my mind, "For what?"

Not that the team doesn't have needs, but the Astros just traded away 3 of thier big bargaining chips in Taveras, Hirsh and Buchholz... I don't see Ensberg landing a good pitching all by himself (maybe I am wrong)...  The hopes I had was that Ensberg being packaged with someone else to land the piece the team needs, now I am not sure they have that 2nd piece anymore to package with him.

I am not in the camp to trade Ensberg just to trade him, even though I think Huff on the team makes it better.

BTW, I agree Jennings has alot to prove to make this deal seem balanced.  Like Hirsh or not, he was "supposedly" the Astros top pitching prospect and Taveras was the 2 year starting CFer.  Jennings improves the team, but I am not sure he improves it enough for this trade.  But as someone pointed out, Nobody cares what I think.

JimR

  • Contributor
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 29345
    • View Profile
    • McGinnis, Lochridge & Kilgore, LLP
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #144 on: December 13, 2006, 11:30:30 am »
apparently the Astros do not agree with your assessment of Hirsh. that is the only opinion that matters.
Often wrong, but never in doubt.

Nate in IA

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 4279
  • To the stars...
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #145 on: December 13, 2006, 11:31:08 am »
Jennings, 2004-2006:

Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   4.93  10.6   4.8  1.03   5.5
Road   4.50   8.9   3.5  0.83   6.3

Jennings, 2006:
Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   3.56   8.8   4.0  0.80   5.8
Road   3.97   8.7   3.2  0.65   6.2

In 2004, the Rockies and their opponents scored 41 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere, and in 2005 they scored 29 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. That changed drastically in 2006, when they scored just 15 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. Coors Field used to play something like the Moon. Last season, it played more like Cincinnati, Kansas City or Phoenix.


Those 2006 numbers look awfully weird.  H/9, BB/9, and HR/9 all went down and the S0/9 went up.  Yet his ERA is .41 higher?  Something doesn't compute for me (though I'm nowhere close to a stat freak).

strobum

  • Roster Filler
  • Posts: 121
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #146 on: December 13, 2006, 11:31:59 am »
Quote:

So, for a guy who really doesn't give up a ton of homeruns, does anyone find it troubling that he's given up six in just three career starts at MMPUS?

Also, the whole, "he'll be a much better pitcher outside of Coors" argument doesn't really hold up. For his career, Jennings is 27-34 with a 4.37 ERA on the road.





On the flip side, Jennings has fared quite well against most of the teams in the NL Central. Only Houston and, surprisingly, Pittsburgh have hit him hard.

Here's how it breaks out (sorry, I don't know how to do Arky's cool chart layout):

Cubs - 2-1   25 IP   3.96 ERA   .234 BAA
Reds - 2-3   44 IP   3.68 ERA   .247 BAA
Brewers 2-0   23.1 IP   3.47 ERA   .284 BAA
Pirates 1-5   35.1 IP   6.11 ERA   .285 BAA
Co-ards 3-3   46 IP   3.52 ERA   .279 BAA

Foghorn

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2839
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #147 on: December 13, 2006, 11:35:00 am »
Hirsch--looks like one of those guys who doesn't do any one thing great, but does everything good.  Not sure how that translates to the major league level.  I see his potential as that of an innings eater.

Buchholz--major league curve, had 2 or 3 great starts.  I guess the injury issue is out there if it is true the White Sox backed away from the Garland trade beacuse of it.  More upside than Hirsch, but health is a question mark.

Willie T--hits for a pretty good average, thanks to his incredible speed.  Doesn't walk much.  Seems overmatched at the plate on a consistant basis.  Above average on the bases, but I never really think of him as a heady base runner.  "Feets don't fail me now" seems to apply to him as well.  Great defense though.

All in all, I'll miss Willie's defense and the upside of Buchholz.  But thats it.
You see pal, that's who I am, and you're nothing. Nice guy, I don't give a shit. Good father, fuck you. Go home and play with your kids. You wanna work here, close. You think this is abuse? You think this is abuse, you cocksucker? You can't take this, how can you take the abuse you get on a sit?

Tralfaz

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2223
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #148 on: December 13, 2006, 11:39:05 am »
I know little of the Rockies rotation, was Jennings considered the Rockies ace or #2?
RO RASROS!

Froback

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2253
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #149 on: December 13, 2006, 11:40:55 am »
Quote:

apparently the Astros do not agree with your assessment of Hirsh. that is the only opinion that matters.



Obviously.  But as we have discussed, people inside an organization will value people differently than those outside.  And every publication that rates prospects had Hirsh rated #1.  That probably has some to do with closeness to the majors as well as actual prospective talent.

The point was that if most people are rating him #1 prospect, he should have more value than say someone rated #5 prospect.  Now for the past couple of years the Astros farm system has consistently been rated bottom half of the league, so that could also factor in.

Just seems that you "should" be able to get something pretty good for your #1 prospect, a young starting CFer who can lead off, and a pitching prospect who used to be #1 prospect.  Is Jennings that good?  Maybe, but even if he is that good, is only having him for 1 year worth that much?

I think that is where I have some issue, with the last two parts, is he that good and if so, why only 1 year?  If they sign a reasonable extension (who knows what that term means any more), then the move looks more balanced.

MikeyBoy

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2572
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #150 on: December 13, 2006, 11:43:27 am »
Quote:

Like Hirsh or not, he was "supposedly" the Astros top pitching prospect




This according to outside sources like Baseball America that have little more than box scores and rosters to reach their conclusions, but that doesn't mean he was the best pitching prospect according to the Astros themselves. If I recall correctly, the Astros went to Sampson and Albers last season when they needed help, before Hirsh.
"Buenos Dias, shitheads."

Bench

  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 16476
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #151 on: December 13, 2006, 11:45:14 am »
Quote:

I know little of the Rockies rotation, was Jennings considered the Rockies ace or #2?




I think the rotation shook out Jennings, Francis, Cook, Kim, and Fogg.

Jennings was the Rockies OD starter last season and in '03 (when he lost to Oswalt in Houston).
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

S.P. Rodriguez

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2932
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #152 on: December 13, 2006, 11:46:03 am »
Quote:

Burke at the top of the order

sign Huff today

trade Ensberg

...since you asked....





First off, I agree with your opinion, Huff makes the offense better and takes some pressure off of what will be a young rotation at the back end.  However, in light of Purpura's comments during the news conference, I have some doubts they are heading in this direction:

"When you start with Carlos Lee, Woody Williams and now Jason Jennings, we've put three huge pieces to our puzzle together," he said. "From here on out, what you try to do is look at situations that might come up and see if you can improve yourself in incremental ways."

 chron article - last sentence specificallly

And the various comments about Ensberg deserving another chance etc... mostly from radio interviews.   I am skeptical, but wouldn't surprise me if Houston was getting little interest from other teams hoping Houston would sell low on Ensberg.

I don't know that signing Huff to play RF and keep Ensberg at 3B is a bad idea. Other than resulting horrendous outfield defense, of course.
"If you don't read the newspaper you are uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed."

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous, he will not bite you; that is the principal difference between a dog and a man. "

-Mark Twain

Trey

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 1249
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #153 on: December 13, 2006, 11:52:18 am »
Quote:

Jennings, 2004-2006:

Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   4.93  10.6   4.8  1.03   5.5
Road   4.50   8.9   3.5  0.83   6.3

Jennings, 2006:
Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   3.56   8.8   4.0  0.80   5.8
Road   3.97   8.7   3.2  0.65   6.2

In 2004, the Rockies and their opponents scored 41 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere, and in 2005 they scored 29 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. That changed drastically in 2006, when they scored just 15 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. Coors Field used to play something like the Moon. Last season, it played more like Cincinnati, Kansas City or Phoenix.


Those 2006 numbers look awfully weird.  H/9, BB/9, and HR/9 all went down and the S0/9 went up.  Yet his ERA is .41 higher?  Something doesn't compute for me (though I'm nowhere close to a stat freak).





His ERA was DOWN almost half a run
Let me explain something to you. Um, I am not "Mr. Lebowski". You're Mr. Lebowski. I'm the Dude. So that's what you call me. You know, that or, uh, His Dudeness, or uh, Duder, or El Duderino if you're not into the whole brevity thing.

Tralfaz

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2223
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #154 on: December 13, 2006, 11:54:25 am »
Quote:

Quote:

I know little of the Rockies rotation, was Jennings considered the Rockies ace or #2?




I think the rotation shook out Jennings, Francis, Cook, Kim, and Fogg.

Jennings was the Rockies OD starter last season.





Hopefully, being slotted in behind the Wizard will have a positive effect on Jennings.  Kind of like when the Unit, bumped Shane Reynolds down to #2 and he really benefitted from not having the pressure of being the horse of the staff.
RO RASROS!

JimR

  • Contributor
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 29345
    • View Profile
    • McGinnis, Lochridge & Kilgore, LLP
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #155 on: December 13, 2006, 11:57:05 am »
publications do not know shit. they do not see games. BA and BP are especially laughable.
Often wrong, but never in doubt.

FLSnuffy

  • Clark
  • Posts: 19
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #156 on: December 13, 2006, 12:12:43 pm »
Quote:

An outfield of LEE-Lane-Scott is putrid.  There has to be another deal in the works.




 A few questions:

Aren't there some other options?  Didn't Bruntlett perform well in CF when given a shot?  

And what are the prospects for Jimmerson getting a shot at CF?  He has speed, defense and an arm, but is he a fit at CF?  

...and what help is he getting w/ cutting down his K's?  Is he coachable?

He's a great story, becoming a CWS MVP after being a walkon w/ Miami.  Have been pulling for him for a long time.

How soon will Jimmerson have to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft?

Thanks,
Snuff
Nothing worthwhile comes w/o pain, ask any Astros fan.

JimR

  • Contributor
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 29345
    • View Profile
    • McGinnis, Lochridge & Kilgore, LLP
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #157 on: December 13, 2006, 12:16:52 pm »
Jimerson will cut down on his Ks about the time hell freezes over. he is not an option, imo, despite his raw skills.

Bruntlett is an infielder and a utility guy. he is not an every day OFer. of course, i do not think Burke is either, but as DKR once said: "Old Ugly is better than old Nothing."

(i realize that by quoting Royal, i am inviting 50 posts from HH describing how DKR was not worth a shit as a coach.)
Often wrong, but never in doubt.

jaklewein

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 3612
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #158 on: December 13, 2006, 12:20:14 pm »
Quote:

Jimerson will cut down on his Ks about the time hell freezes over. he is not an option, imo, despite his raw skilly.

Bruntlett in an infielder and a utility guy. he is not an every day OFer. of course, i do not think Burke is either, but as DKR once said: "Old Ugly is better than old Nothing."





Sure is weird thinking that the '07 Astros are going to be trying to out hit teams, rather than out pitch/field them.

S.P. Rodriguez

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2932
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #159 on: December 13, 2006, 12:22:36 pm »
What about Mike Rodriguez from RR?  Someone gave a pretty solid breakdown on his performance.  He could provide something similar to Taveras, no?  

So far I like the upgrades to the offense but this team has a serious lack of speed.  Outside of Burke and Everett, maybe Biggio, there is no one who really threatens to go 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home on anything other that a well hit ball.
"If you don't read the newspaper you are uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed."

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous, he will not bite you; that is the principal difference between a dog and a man. "

-Mark Twain

JimR

  • Contributor
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 29345
    • View Profile
    • McGinnis, Lochridge & Kilgore, LLP
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #160 on: December 13, 2006, 12:22:42 pm »
i do not think that. why do you?
Often wrong, but never in doubt.

Tralfaz

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2223
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #161 on: December 13, 2006, 12:25:42 pm »
Bruntlett keeps the bench strong and gives Garner flexibility in late inning situations and spot starts.  He's perfect in that role.
RO RASROS!

Jacksonian

  • Contributor
  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12893
  • Anonymous Source
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #162 on: December 13, 2006, 12:26:17 pm »
Quote:

What about Mike Rodriguez from RR?  Someone gave a pretty solid breakdown on his performance.  He could provide something similar to Taveras, no?  

So far I like the upgrades to the offense but this team has a serious lack of speed.  Outside of Burke and Everett, maybe Biggio, there is no one who really threatens to go 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home on anything other that a well hit ball.





MRod is a 4th or 5th outfielder type.
Goin' for a bus ride.

jaklewein

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 3612
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #163 on: December 13, 2006, 12:32:18 pm »
Quote:

i do not think that. why do you?




Dammit JimR...just deleted a long, long post.  It made me realize that you're right.  I guess the OF defense (w/ Burke included in CF) is the main thing bothering me.  Just seems like we'll be average to below average at each position out there (defensively that is).

Froback

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2253
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #164 on: December 13, 2006, 12:36:16 pm »
I think this rotation has the potential to be sneaky good.  Kind of like the Co-ards a few years back when you kept looking at them going "They are not this good!" yet they kept winning.

One word of warning on Jennings though, from what I can tell he looks like a slow starter, ie April stats are poor compared to later months.

HudsonHawk

  • Administrator
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 42689
  • Gentleman About Town
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #165 on: December 13, 2006, 12:50:07 pm »
Quote:


How soon will Jimmerson have to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft?






Jimerson is already on the 40-man roster, he can't be exposed to the Rule 5 draft.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

Limey

  • Contributor
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 32079
  • Tally Ho!
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #166 on: December 13, 2006, 01:17:05 pm »
Quote:

Never been to Denver on a stagnant summer day, huh?



Maybe it's not the weather.
Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen.

toddthebod

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 3385
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #167 on: December 13, 2006, 01:23:37 pm »
 
Quote:

 Taveras is who i did not want to trade




The only thing that I didn't like about Taveras is that when the Astros had runners in scoring position with two outs and Taveras was up, he seemed to be incapable of getting that big hit.
Boom!

BUWebguy

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2118
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #168 on: December 13, 2006, 01:24:21 pm »
Quote:

publications do not know shit. they do not see games. BA and BP are especially laughable.




BP, sure -- they don't even try to portray themselves as game-watchers. But BA? From cursory reading, it seems most of their prospect rankings and that sort of thing are based on both stats and a lot of input from scouts and other organizational men. Is that not the case?
"If you can't figure out that Astros doesn't have an apostrophe, you shouldn't be able to comment." - Ron Brand, June 9, 2010

HudsonHawk

  • Administrator
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 42689
  • Gentleman About Town
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #169 on: December 13, 2006, 01:30:19 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

publications do not know shit. they do not see games. BA and BP are especially laughable.




BP, sure -- they don't even try to portray themselves as game-watchers. But BA? From cursory reading, it seems most of their prospect rankings and that sort of thing are based on both stats and a lot of input from scouts and other organizational men. Is that not the case?






BA is much better than BP IMO.  BA is much more grounded in reality, though they have to rely on heresay and stats too.  BP is only there for comic relief.
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #170 on: December 13, 2006, 01:33:44 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

publications do not know shit. they do not see games. BA and BP are especially laughable.




BP, sure -- they don't even try to portray themselves as game-watchers. But BA? From cursory reading, it seems most of their prospect rankings and that sort of thing are based on both stats and a lot of input from scouts and other organizational men. Is that not the case?




The problem with BA is the lack of shoe leather analysis.  They don't go out and watch prospects much.  The rely on reading stats... a lot!  Stats can lie sometimes.  Scouts telling them information can also taint the information at times.  I think you have to go out and see for yourself to finalize your thoughts on players.  We have the same limitations as BA.  We can't go out and watch many of the prospects, but we have tried like the dickens to get you first hand information coupled with watching as much of the Round Rock, Corpus Christi and even other avenues.  Duman, for instance, lives in Greenesboro and has at times housed some of the Astros prospects.  So Duman provides first hand analysis for us to go with what we're told by scouts and read in stat lines.  JimR goes to a ton of Round Rock games, as does Greg D.  We have a guy who watches many of the CC Hooks games as possible.  We hope to some day have a person giving us information like Duman and the rest for every minor league venue.

Until then, we are as limited as BA, but then again we don't put out information that we see as gospel or the last word on anything prospect related.  Jason Hirsh had his limitations and JimR has expressed them best in this thread.  BA, on the other hand, will lead you to believe that Hirsh is the second coming of Oswalt and they don't mean because they've seen him pitch, but because AAA stats say so.

It is not fair to Hirsh to have such a label.

Nate in IA

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 4279
  • To the stars...
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #171 on: December 13, 2006, 01:42:48 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Jennings, 2004-2006:

Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   4.93  10.6   4.8  1.03   5.5
Road   4.50   8.9   3.5  0.83   6.3

Jennings, 2006:
Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   3.56   8.8   4.0  0.80   5.8
Road   3.97   8.7   3.2  0.65   6.2

In 2004, the Rockies and their opponents scored 41 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere, and in 2005 they scored 29 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. That changed drastically in 2006, when they scored just 15 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. Coors Field used to play something like the Moon. Last season, it played more like Cincinnati, Kansas City or Phoenix.


Those 2006 numbers look awfully weird.  H/9, BB/9, and HR/9 all went down and the S0/9 went up.  Yet his ERA is .41 higher?  Something doesn't compute for me (though I'm nowhere close to a stat freak).





His ERA was DOWN almost half a run




Huh?  3.97 > 3.56 last time I checked...  

I don't think I was clear. I was talking about the home/road numbers in 2006.  His road numbers were all better than his home numbers and yet his road ERA was .41 GREATER than home.

BUWebguy

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2118
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #172 on: December 13, 2006, 02:37:47 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

publications do not know shit. they do not see games. BA and BP are especially laughable.




BP, sure -- they don't even try to portray themselves as game-watchers. But BA? From cursory reading, it seems most of their prospect rankings and that sort of thing are based on both stats and a lot of input from scouts and other organizational men. Is that not the case?




The problem with BA is the lack of shoe leather analysis.  They don't go out and watch prospects much.  The rely on reading stats... a lot!  Stats can lie sometimes.  Scouts telling them information can also taint the information at times.  I think you have to go out and see for yourself to finalize your thoughts on players.  We have the same limitations as BA.  We can't go out and watch many of the prospects, but we have tried like the dickens to get you first hand information coupled with watching as much of the Round Rock, Corpus Christi and even other avenues.  Duman, for instance, lives in Greenesboro and has at times housed some of the Astros prospects.  So Duman provides first hand analysis for us to go with what we're told by scouts and read in stat lines.  JimR goes to a ton of Round Rock games, as does Greg D.  We have a guy who watches many of the CC Hooks games as possible.  We hope to some day have a person giving us information like Duman and the rest for every minor league venue.

Until then, we are as limited as BA, but then again we don't put out information that we see as gospel or the last word on anything prospect related.  Jason Hirsh had his limitations and JimR has expressed them best in this thread.  BA, on the other hand, will lead you to believe that Hirsh is the second coming of Oswalt and they don't mean because they've seen him pitch, but because AAA stats say so.

It is not fair to Hirsh to have such a label.




Makes sense. Thanks to all who watch these guys whenever, wherever possible and share their evaluations with the rest of us. I definitely take that for granted.
"If you can't figure out that Astros doesn't have an apostrophe, you shouldn't be able to comment." - Ron Brand, June 9, 2010

JimR

  • Contributor
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 29345
    • View Profile
    • McGinnis, Lochridge & Kilgore, LLP
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #173 on: December 13, 2006, 02:57:55 pm »
Chen Feng Chin

i rest my case.
Often wrong, but never in doubt.

Trey

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 1249
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #174 on: December 13, 2006, 03:03:22 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Jennings, 2004-2006:

Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   4.93  10.6   4.8  1.03   5.5
Road   4.50   8.9   3.5  0.83   6.3

Jennings, 2006:
Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   3.56   8.8   4.0  0.80   5.8
Road   3.97   8.7   3.2  0.65   6.2

In 2004, the Rockies and their opponents scored 41 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere, and in 2005 they scored 29 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. That changed drastically in 2006, when they scored just 15 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. Coors Field used to play something like the Moon. Last season, it played more like Cincinnati, Kansas City or Phoenix.


Those 2006 numbers look awfully weird.  H/9, BB/9, and HR/9 all went down and the S0/9 went up.  Yet his ERA is .41 higher?  Something doesn't compute for me (though I'm nowhere close to a stat freak).





His ERA was DOWN almost half a run




Huh?  3.97 > 3.56 last time I checked...  

I don't think I was clear. I was talking about the home/road numbers in 2006.  His road numbers were all better than his home numbers and yet his road ERA was .41 GREATER than home.




gotcha.  I misunderstood what you were getting at.
Let me explain something to you. Um, I am not "Mr. Lebowski". You're Mr. Lebowski. I'm the Dude. So that's what you call me. You know, that or, uh, His Dudeness, or uh, Duder, or El Duderino if you're not into the whole brevity thing.

Burzmali

  • Veteran Role Player
  • Posts: 262
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #175 on: December 13, 2006, 03:05:36 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Jennings, 2004-2006:

Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   4.93  10.6   4.8  1.03   5.5
Road   4.50   8.9   3.5  0.83   6.3

Jennings, 2006:
Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   3.56   8.8   4.0  0.80   5.8
Road   3.97   8.7   3.2  0.65   6.2

In 2004, the Rockies and their opponents scored 41 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere, and in 2005 they scored 29 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. That changed drastically in 2006, when they scored just 15 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. Coors Field used to play something like the Moon. Last season, it played more like Cincinnati, Kansas City or Phoenix.


Those 2006 numbers look awfully weird.  H/9, BB/9, and HR/9 all went down and the S0/9 went up.  Yet his ERA is .41 higher?  Something doesn't compute for me (though I'm nowhere close to a stat freak).





His ERA was DOWN almost half a run




Huh?  3.97 > 3.56 last time I checked...  

I don't think I was clear. I was talking about the home/road numbers in 2006.  His road numbers were all better than his home numbers and yet his road ERA was .41 GREATER than home.




More K's, less walks, less homers, but higher ERA.

Means that when the ball was in play, he was hit harder away from Coors.

Maybe he's adjusted his game to fit into Coors?

BizidyDizidy

  • Pope
  • Posts: 8836
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #176 on: December 13, 2006, 03:14:04 pm »
Is that what it means? You are a brilliant statistical analyst.
"My doctor told me to stop having intimate dinners for four. Unless there are three other people."
  -  Orson Welles

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #177 on: December 13, 2006, 03:42:57 pm »
Quote:

Chen Feng Chin

i rest my case.





I remember back when BA and others had pronounced Chad Tracy as the next great third baseman phenom to come to the bigs.  I would sit at the Dell Diamond and *watch* Tracy play and would wonder what the fuss was about.  I saw a good player, but never a GREAT player.

I realized that BA was reading stats.  This was on a guy who played a lot of his games in El Paso and Tucson, infamous hitters parks.  Tracy has become a good player, maybe slightly above average, but he never looked like the next great thing I kept reading about.

Conversely, when I would watch Morgan Ensberg play, I saw a guy who could become a really good hitter in the majors.  He was very aggressive the one year I watched him at Round Rock (he and Ginter were the proverbial one-two punch in the offense that carried the team to a Texas League championship).  When no publication would notice Ensberg, I wondered why.  To me, Ensberg is his own worse enemy because he's too smart and thinks way too much.  Funny to say that, huh?

But he's trying to outsmart the pitcher instead of being a good hitter and do what he's supposed to do with his talent in the middle of a lineup.  Don't think, just hit the ball!

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #178 on: December 13, 2006, 03:45:05 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Jennings, 2004-2006:

Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   4.93  10.6   4.8  1.03   5.5
Road   4.50   8.9   3.5  0.83   6.3

Jennings, 2006:
Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   3.56   8.8   4.0  0.80   5.8
Road   3.97   8.7   3.2  0.65   6.2

In 2004, the Rockies and their opponents scored 41 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere, and in 2005 they scored 29 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. That changed drastically in 2006, when they scored just 15 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. Coors Field used to play something like the Moon. Last season, it played more like Cincinnati, Kansas City or Phoenix.


Those 2006 numbers look awfully weird.  H/9, BB/9, and HR/9 all went down and the S0/9 went up.  Yet his ERA is .41 higher?  Something doesn't compute for me (though I'm nowhere close to a stat freak).





His ERA was DOWN almost half a run




Huh?  3.97 > 3.56 last time I checked...  

I don't think I was clear. I was talking about the home/road numbers in 2006.  His road numbers were all better than his home numbers and yet his road ERA was .41 GREATER than home.




More K's, less walks, less homers, but higher ERA.

Means that when the ball was in play, he was hit harder away from Coors.

Maybe he's adjusted his game to fit into Coors?




Or that he had a very erratic defense behind him.  Example: Derek Jeter will make a pitcher look like he gets hit harder than he does simply because he isn't a very good shortstop.  Put a different shortstop behind the same pitcher, guess what!

He doesn't look the same statistically.  Go figure.

JimR

  • Contributor
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 29345
    • View Profile
    • McGinnis, Lochridge & Kilgore, LLP
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #179 on: December 13, 2006, 03:49:27 pm »
Mr. CFC was BA's #1 prospect for LA for the 2000 season. i sat and watch AA pitchers dominate him with fastballs. he was nearly helpless. that's when i learned about BA.
Often wrong, but never in doubt.

VirtualBob

  • Pope
  • Posts: 5630
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #180 on: December 13, 2006, 03:51:33 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Chen Feng Chin

i rest my case.





I remember back when BA and others had pronounced Chad Tracy as the next great third baseman phenom to come to the bigs.  I would sit at the Dell Diamond and *watch* Tracy play and would wonder what the fuss was about.  I saw a good player, but never a GREAT player.

I realized that BA was reading stats.  This was on a guy who played a lot of his games in El Paso and Tucson, infamous hitters parks.  Tracy has become a good player, maybe slightly above average, but he never looked like the next great thing I kept reading about.

Conversely, when I would watch Morgan Ensberg play, I saw a guy who could become a really good hitter in the majors.  He was very aggressive the one year I watched him at Round Rock (he and Ginter were the proverbial one-two punch in the offense that carried the team to a Texas League championship).  When no publication would notice Ensberg, I wondered why.  To me, Ensberg is his own worse enemy because he's too smart and thinks way too much.  Funny to say that, huh?

But he's trying to outsmart the pitcher instead of being a good hitter and do what he's supposed to do with his talent in the middle of a lineup.  Don't think, just hit the ball!





Great summary and I share your view of both Tracy & Ensberg from that first year in RR.  Your conclusion puts me in mind of Yogi Berra's famous quip when asked what he thought about as he faced certyain pitchers:  
Quote:

Think?  How the hell are you gonna think and hit at the same time?"


Up in the Air

Burzmali

  • Veteran Role Player
  • Posts: 262
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #181 on: December 13, 2006, 05:32:27 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Jennings, 2004-2006:

Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   4.93  10.6   4.8  1.03   5.5
Road   4.50   8.9   3.5  0.83   6.3

Jennings, 2006:
Split   ERA   H/9  BB/9  HR/9  SO/9
-----------------------------------
Home   3.56   8.8   4.0  0.80   5.8
Road   3.97   8.7   3.2  0.65   6.2

In 2004, the Rockies and their opponents scored 41 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere, and in 2005 they scored 29 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. That changed drastically in 2006, when they scored just 15 percent more runs at Coors Field than elsewhere. Coors Field used to play something like the Moon. Last season, it played more like Cincinnati, Kansas City or Phoenix.


Those 2006 numbers look awfully weird.  H/9, BB/9, and HR/9 all went down and the S0/9 went up.  Yet his ERA is .41 higher?  Something doesn't compute for me (though I'm nowhere close to a stat freak).





His ERA was DOWN almost half a run




Huh?  3.97 > 3.56 last time I checked...  

I don't think I was clear. I was talking about the home/road numbers in 2006.  His road numbers were all better than his home numbers and yet his road ERA was .41 GREATER than home.




More K's, less walks, less homers, but higher ERA.

Means that when the ball was in play, he was hit harder away from Coors.

Maybe he's adjusted his game to fit into Coors?




Or that he had a very erratic defense behind him.  Example: Derek Jeter will make a pitcher look like he gets hit harder than he does simply because he isn't a very good shortstop.  Put a different shortstop behind the same pitcher, guess what!

He doesn't look the same statistically.  Go figure.




I don't know if team defense can split that much home/away. It's interesting though.

BizidyDizidy

  • Pope
  • Posts: 8836
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #182 on: December 13, 2006, 05:40:12 pm »
Jennings pitched 212 innings last year - lets say 106 home and 106 away. A change of .5 in ERA over 106 innings is a difference of ~6 runs. That's what you're wringing your hands over?
"My doctor told me to stop having intimate dinners for four. Unless there are three other people."
  -  Orson Welles

Nate in IA

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 4279
  • To the stars...
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #183 on: December 13, 2006, 05:41:46 pm »
The Rockies were/are a very young team and last year they played like it sometimes.  I only got to see them at home (mostly watched the Astros on TV) but I distinctly remember a game earlier in the season where Garrett Atkins made 2 or 3 errors at the hot corner.  I don't remember who was pitching that day but that was sort of the Rockies last year.  Great one day, fairly horrible the next.  

I'm thinking if Noe is correct and that split can be attributed to erratic defense, Jason is going to enjoy having Adam Everett behind him.  It remains to be seen if he's going to enjoy having the center fielder behind him but if he remains the ground ball pitcher he has been, that won't matter that much.

geezerdonk

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 3342
  • a long tradition of existence
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #184 on: December 13, 2006, 06:40:09 pm »
Quote:

"Old Ugly is better than old Nothing."




Darrell just said that because he didn't know Old Ugly
E come vivo? Vivo.

geezerdonk

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 3342
  • a long tradition of existence
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #185 on: December 13, 2006, 06:52:08 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Never been to Denver on a stagnant summer day, huh?



Maybe it's not the weather.




It's all that snow. If it can make Jack Torrance go all Lizzie Borden, it can make you gay. Let me amend that - it can make SOME PEOPLE gay.
E come vivo? Vivo.

DVauthrin

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2929
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #186 on: December 13, 2006, 06:54:50 pm »
Jason Jennings meet Adam Everett.   Adam Everett meet Jason Jennings.   This should be the start of a beautiful friendship.   And jennings might want to lavish everett with gifts to keep his gold glove caliber(should have won last year at minimum) shortstop happy.

Heck I bet Everett gets a lot of stuff from Astro pitchers for making ridiculous and routine plays behind them on a nightly basis.   He is the best defensive shortstop in baseball as far as i'm concerned, and pitchers love pitching with him on their team.
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #187 on: December 13, 2006, 07:18:48 pm »
Quote:

Jason Jennings meet Adam Everett.   Adam Everett meet Jason Jennings.   This should be the start of a beautiful friendship.   And jennings might want to lavish everett with gifts to keep his gold glove caliber(should have won last year at minimum) shortstop happy.

Heck I bet Everett gets a lot of stuff from Astro pitchers for making ridiculous and routine plays behind them on a nightly basis.   He is the best defensive shortstop in baseball as far as i'm concerned, and pitchers love pitching with him on their team.





Not to mention the incredible power Adam Everett has in making Craig Biggio a part of the league leading double play combo.

Now *THAT* is power, people!

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #188 on: December 13, 2006, 07:20:30 pm »
Quote:

The Rockies were/are a very young team and last year they played like it sometimes.  I only got to see them at home (mostly watched the Astros on TV) but I distinctly remember a game earlier in the season where Garrett Atkins made 2 or 3 errors at the hot corner.  I don't remember who was pitching that day but that was sort of the Rockies last year.  Great one day, fairly horrible the next.  

I'm thinking if Noe is correct and that split can be attributed to erratic defense, Jason is going to enjoy having Adam Everett behind him.  It remains to be seen if he's going to enjoy having the center fielder behind him but if he remains the ground ball pitcher he has been, that won't matter that much.





Yes, this is what I was implying may affect the split numbers.  As Joaquin said "Juneberno!".  So juneberno one day from the next when your young infield is going to step over their own feet trying to make a routine play or not.  Makes for some interesting stat lines at times.

Burzmali

  • Veteran Role Player
  • Posts: 262
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #189 on: December 13, 2006, 08:05:52 pm »
Quote:

Jennings pitched 212 innings last year - lets say 106 home and 106 away. A change of .5 in ERA over 106 innings is a difference of ~6 runs. That's what you're wringing your hands over?




Stop trying to get a reaction. I'm not "wringing my hands", I'm just curious as to why the guy splits better at Coors of all places.

I've already said that I like the trade.

Michael N

  • Prime Time Player
  • Posts: 799
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #190 on: December 13, 2006, 10:08:49 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

publications do not know shit. they do not see games. BA and BP are especially laughable.




BP, sure -- they don't even try to portray themselves as game-watchers. But BA? From cursory reading, it seems most of their prospect rankings and that sort of thing are based on both stats and a lot of input from scouts and other organizational men. Is that not the case?





Of course it is the case. The guys at BA actually do watch quite a bit of minor league baseball. They also use statistical approaches to analysis and rely on the eyes and ears of managers, scouts and professionals in the business as well as local beat writers. I've dogged BA in the past for their methods but they certainly do a more thorough job than most other publications.
Cosmic American Soul

Twoniner

  • Veteran Role Player
  • Posts: 310
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #191 on: December 14, 2006, 01:28:01 am »
Quote:

Stop trying to get a reaction. I'm not "wringing my hands", I'm just curious as to why the guy splits better at Coors of all places.




 The humidor at Coors was cranked up like a son of a bitch last year for most of the year.  I can't tell you the amount of under wagers I won with the Rockies at home last season.  Also, As the above poster stated, the results are easily small sample size oriented when you are looking at only one season.

JimR

  • Contributor
  • High Order of the Ferret
  • *****
  • Posts: 29345
    • View Profile
    • McGinnis, Lochridge & Kilgore, LLP
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #192 on: December 14, 2006, 10:55:05 am »
bs.
Often wrong, but never in doubt.

Michael N

  • Prime Time Player
  • Posts: 799
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #193 on: December 14, 2006, 11:08:37 am »
Quote:

bs.




Call it bullshit if you want, Jim, but do you know who actually wrote the piece calling CFC the #1 prospect in the Dodgers system in 2000? BTW, their system totally SUCKED at that time and so a #1 ranking was somewhat dubious.

The guys name is David Rawnsley. At one time he was the Astros assistant director of scouting operations and was in charge of international scouting. His mentor is Andres Reiner. He has seen more minor league baseball than you, I or any other person on the board. He also knows more people in the game, is widely respected for what he does and has actually worked in the game.
Cosmic American Soul

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #194 on: December 14, 2006, 11:40:23 am »
Quote:

Quote:

bs.




Call it bullshit if you want, Jim, but do you know who actually wrote the piece calling CFC the #1 prospect in the Dodgers system in 2000? BTW, their system totally SUCKED at that time and so a #1 ranking was somewhat dubious.

The guys name is David Rawnsley. At one time he was the Astros assistant director of scouting operations and was in charge of international scouting. His mentor is Andres Reiner. He has seen more minor league baseball than you, I or any other person on the board. He also knows more people in the game, is widely respected for what he does and has actually worked in the game.





The irony of that is that I once conversed with Rawnsley (he had a segment on Sports610 with Rich and Charlie in the afternoons waaaaay back when...) on this very thing.  It wasn't over the air, it was via e-mail.  Rawnsley was getting ready to launch TeamOne Baseball and they were going to give Baseball America a run for their money (so they said).  I became a faithful follower of TeamOne, it was heads above BA.  One of the great things about TeamOne was the articles that Rawnsley would write on the way scouts operate.  This was eye-opening to me because of what they do in terms of evaluation and in Rawnsley's own words, pay little attention to stat lines at the lower levels of the minor leagues because of all the variables involved.  It's the variables that makes a scout stand up and take a hard look at some guys.  While some might tend to hone in on a guy hitting a lot of homeruns (*cough, cough... Einerston... cough, cough*), a good scout will evalute the league, the competition, the parks and use that to judge the hitter accordingly.  At times, a guy hitting less homeruns, maybe slighty lower batting average is a better *player* when you see him and make out your report for the organization.

Any way, the accusation of "lack of shoe leather" scouting was what Rawnsley said at TeamOne was wrong with *other* scouting websites (*hint, hint... BA... hint, hint*).  I then read soon afterwards Jim Callis admit in a chat session that he rarely goes out and looks at a player... it wasn't shocking to me any more because of what Rawnsley said.

The irony is that TeamOne fizzled even though they were said to provide true scouting from the shoe leather approach and connections to every college, minor league and professional organization.  Rawnsley left them to go into being a sports agent as I remember and TeamOne went down the drain soon afterwards.

Perhaps now Baseball America, who I still think pays way more attention to the upper levels because it is easier to scout and read stat lines for those levels, does more shoe leather.  But for lower minor league stuff that is even handed and well produced information, it is still hard to find anyone who does that well.

Arky Vaughan

  • Administrator
  • Pope
  • Posts: 6335
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #195 on: December 14, 2006, 12:29:40 pm »
Quote:

Or that he had a very erratic defense behind him.  Example: Derek Jeter will make a pitcher look like he gets hit harder than he does simply because he isn't a very good shortstop.  Put a different shortstop behind the same pitcher, guess what!




Did the Rockies use different shortstops at home and on the road?

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #196 on: December 14, 2006, 12:31:54 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Or that he had a very erratic defense behind him.  Example: Derek Jeter will make a pitcher look like he gets hit harder than he does simply because he isn't a very good shortstop.  Put a different shortstop behind the same pitcher, guess what!




Did the Rockies use different shortstops at home and on the road?





Are you kidding me with that question?  You *honestly* don't understand the point?

Foghorn

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2839
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #197 on: December 14, 2006, 12:50:42 pm »
I always liked what Rawnsley had to say.  He was a very good guest on the sports talk shows.
You see pal, that's who I am, and you're nothing. Nice guy, I don't give a shit. Good father, fuck you. Go home and play with your kids. You wanna work here, close. You think this is abuse? You think this is abuse, you cocksucker? You can't take this, how can you take the abuse you get on a sit?

Arky Vaughan

  • Administrator
  • Pope
  • Posts: 6335
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #198 on: December 14, 2006, 01:27:55 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Or that he had a very erratic defense behind him.  Example: Derek Jeter will make a pitcher look like he gets hit harder than he does simply because he isn't a very good shortstop.  Put a different shortstop behind the same pitcher, guess what!




Did the Rockies use different shortstops at home and on the road?




Are you kidding me with that question?  You *honestly* don't understand the point?




It was tongue-in-cheek. I do understand the point. But the question was how Jennings could allow fewer hits and walks on the road but end up with a higher ERA. I don't think the quality of shortstop behind him explains that.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #199 on: December 14, 2006, 01:35:11 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Or that he had a very erratic defense behind him.  Example: Derek Jeter will make a pitcher look like he gets hit harder than he does simply because he isn't a very good shortstop.  Put a different shortstop behind the same pitcher, guess what!




Did the Rockies use different shortstops at home and on the road?




Are you kidding me with that question?  You *honestly* don't understand the point?




It was tongue-in-cheek. I do understand the point. But the question was how Jennings could allow fewer hits and walks on the road but end up with a higher ERA. I don't think the quality of shortstop behind him explains that.




*Inconsistency* makes for interesting stats.  I'm sorry I was too literal with the shortstop comment ("For example" was very important to that statement about Jeter).

Arky Vaughan

  • Administrator
  • Pope
  • Posts: 6335
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #200 on: December 14, 2006, 01:39:57 pm »
Quote:

*Inconsistency* makes for interesting stats.  I'm sorry I was too literal with the shortstop comment ("For example" was very important to that statement about Jeter).




You weren't too literal. Perhaps my sarcasm broadcast signal was too weak.

Nate in IA

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 4279
  • To the stars...
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #201 on: December 14, 2006, 01:42:04 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Or that he had a very erratic defense behind him.  Example: Derek Jeter will make a pitcher look like he gets hit harder than he does simply because he isn't a very good shortstop.  Put a different shortstop behind the same pitcher, guess what!




Did the Rockies use different shortstops at home and on the road?




Are you kidding me with that question?  You *honestly* don't understand the point?




It was tongue-in-cheek. I do understand the point. But the question was how Jennings could allow fewer hits and walks on the road but end up with a higher ERA. I don't think the quality of shortstop behind him explains that.




*Inconsistency* makes for interesting stats.  I'm sorry I was too literal with the shortstop comment ("For example" was very important to that statement about Jeter).




I've been mulling this over and I'm not sure about the mechanics of such a statement.  How does inconsistency raise a pitcher's ERA while his hits, walks, and home runs go down?   If the defense makes an error, that doesn't affect the pitcher's ERA, right?  If they allow a hit, it should affect his hits/9.  I'm struggling trying to figure out how this happens.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #202 on: December 14, 2006, 01:43:04 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

*Inconsistency* makes for interesting stats.  I'm sorry I was too literal with the shortstop comment ("For example" was very important to that statement about Jeter).




You weren't too literal. Perhaps my sarcasm broadcast signal was too weak.




Don't know, I wasn't trying to be sarcastic about Jeter, but point taken.  I think looking too hard at Jennings splits is taking his singular contribution to those splits way too far.

I think it is a convergence of many factors, one of which is the Rockie young defense.  There is an annoying buzz amongst some know-it-all fans (Yeah, there are some others, not just me!) that Jennings' splits are indication of humidor enabled success at Coors.

Same fans will also turn around and say that Matt Holliday is a product of Coors inflated stats and not talent per se.

Cake and eat it too sort of thing.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #203 on: December 14, 2006, 01:47:59 pm »
Quote:

I've been mulling this over and I'm not sure about the mechanics of such a statement.  How does inconsistency raise a pitcher's ERA while his hits, walks, and home runs go down?   If the defense makes an error, that doesn't affect the pitcher's ERA, right?  If they allow a hit, it should affect his hits/9.  I'm struggling trying to figure out how this happens.




Errors aren't the only indication of a good or bad defense.

Nate in IA

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 4279
  • To the stars...
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #204 on: December 14, 2006, 01:57:11 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

I've been mulling this over and I'm not sure about the mechanics of such a statement.  How does inconsistency raise a pitcher's ERA while his hits, walks, and home runs go down?   If the defense makes an error, that doesn't affect the pitcher's ERA, right?  If they allow a hit, it should affect his hits/9.  I'm struggling trying to figure out how this happens.




Errors aren't the only indication of a good or bad defense.





C'mon Noe, you're better than that.  That's a statement of the obvious.  Follow the train there.  How do those other indications affect the stats as presented?

Bench

  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 16476
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #205 on: December 14, 2006, 02:09:56 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I've been mulling this over and I'm not sure about the mechanics of such a statement.  How does inconsistency raise a pitcher's ERA while his hits, walks, and home runs go down?   If the defense makes an error, that doesn't affect the pitcher's ERA, right?  If they allow a hit, it should affect his hits/9.  I'm struggling trying to figure out how this happens.




Errors aren't the only indication of a good or bad defense.




C'mon Noe, you're better than that.  That's a statement of the obvious.  Follow the train there.  How do those other indications affect the stats as presented?




Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're asking: if defense was lousy (I assume the Jeter comment reflects a lack of range and being a young defense means inconsistency in everything including positioning, routes to the ball, etc...), why would hits (including homers) be down, but runs be up?
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

Arky Vaughan

  • Administrator
  • Pope
  • Posts: 6335
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #206 on: December 14, 2006, 02:13:15 pm »
Quote:

C'mon Noe, you're better than that.  That's a statement of the obvious.  Follow the train there.  How do those other indications affect the stats as presented?




I think it was probably nothing more than a fluke, i.e., random deviation.

Nate in IA

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 4279
  • To the stars...
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #207 on: December 14, 2006, 02:16:03 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I've been mulling this over and I'm not sure about the mechanics of such a statement.  How does inconsistency raise a pitcher's ERA while his hits, walks, and home runs go down?   If the defense makes an error, that doesn't affect the pitcher's ERA, right?  If they allow a hit, it should affect his hits/9.  I'm struggling trying to figure out how this happens.




Errors aren't the only indication of a good or bad defense.




C'mon Noe, you're better than that.  That's a statement of the obvious.  Follow the train there.  How do those other indications affect the stats as presented?




Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're asking: if defense was lousy (I assume the Jeter comment reflects a lack of range and being a young defense means inconsistency in everything including positioning, routes to the ball, etc...), why would hits (including homers) be down, but runs be up?




That's exactly what I'm wondering.  I'm beginning to lean toward the notion that the numbers are just wrong.  I think the ERAs are switched between home and road.

Which, by the way, leads me even more to think that Jennings will be a fine #2 for the Astros.

BizidyDizidy

  • Pope
  • Posts: 8836
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #208 on: December 14, 2006, 02:18:31 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

C'mon Noe, you're better than that.  That's a statement of the obvious.  Follow the train there.  How do those other indications affect the stats as presented?




I think it was probably nothing more than a fluke, i.e., random deviation.





Although I was apparently just trying to get a reaction, that was what I was getting at by showing that its just a difference of 6 runs.
"My doctor told me to stop having intimate dinners for four. Unless there are three other people."
  -  Orson Welles

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #209 on: December 14, 2006, 02:23:33 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I've been mulling this over and I'm not sure about the mechanics of such a statement.  How does inconsistency raise a pitcher's ERA while his hits, walks, and home runs go down?   If the defense makes an error, that doesn't affect the pitcher's ERA, right?  If they allow a hit, it should affect his hits/9.  I'm struggling trying to figure out how this happens.




Errors aren't the only indication of a good or bad defense.




C'mon Noe, you're better than that.  That's a statement of the obvious.  Follow the train there.  How do those other indications affect the stats as presented?




Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're asking: if defense was lousy (I assume the Jeter comment reflects a lack of range and being a young defense means inconsistency in everything including positioning, routes to the ball, etc...), why would hits (including homers) be down, but runs be up?




Who knows?  It ain't just because of a humidor though.  To pinpoint exactly why there is such a deviation, you'd need to take it to a lab and replicate each and every inning pitched and then ask yourself if you made allowances for every variable imaginable.  IOW - take the noise out of the data.

At that point, you get your answer.  Until then, having inconsistent performances will lead to inconsistent stats.

Arky Vaughan

  • Administrator
  • Pope
  • Posts: 6335
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #210 on: December 14, 2006, 05:03:04 pm »
Quote:

That's exactly what I'm wondering.  I'm beginning to lean toward the notion that the numbers are just wrong.  I think the ERAs are switched between home and road.

Which, by the way, leads me even more to think that Jennings will be a fine #2 for the Astros.





I double-checked. They're correct:

The Link

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #211 on: December 14, 2006, 05:13:44 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

That's exactly what I'm wondering.  I'm beginning to lean toward the notion that the numbers are just wrong.  I think the ERAs are switched between home and road.

Which, by the way, leads me even more to think that Jennings will be a fine #2 for the Astros.





I double-checked. They're correct:

The Link





Looking at those splits, one guesses that something like this may of been his strategy for away games: Challenge more hitters!

Data Points: More Ks, More Hits, Less Walks, More ABs, Lower BAA (Batting Average Against).  Means the strategy he employed at Coors was to allow just a few more walks, get quicker outs when he had to, strand more runners, challenge less on the really good hitters.  His homerun splits are about the same, so I'm thinking it is basically he felt at ease challenging guys while away from Coors.

He explains it this way (from Astros.com):

Quote:

"I think it's just I'm a little more mature on the mound," Jennings said of his improvement. "I threw my four-seamer a lot more last year, which opened up a whole new world for me. When I throw it like I need to and I want to, it has a little late cut on it. When you combine that with my sinking fastball, I can have two different fastballs going two different directions, and when I have that going, that was the biggest turning point for me last year."




Here is the thing, he's gain alot of experience pitching in the majors so he knows how to pitch effectively.  Hirsh may someday develop the same way, because he uses the same approach: sinkerball and four seamer.  Four seamer is to challenge hitters, sinkerball is to get the quick outs and sit down (pitch to contact approach that Roy Oswalt learned from Burt Hooton at Round Rock).  So if Jennings is telling you he's using his four seamer more, believe him because he's managed to translate that into success because he freaking knows what he's doing out there!  

Humidor my arse!

Nate in IA

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 4279
  • To the stars...
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #212 on: December 14, 2006, 05:15:27 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

That's exactly what I'm wondering.  I'm beginning to lean toward the notion that the numbers are just wrong.  I think the ERAs are switched between home and road.

Which, by the way, leads me even more to think that Jennings will be a fine #2 for the Astros.





I double-checked. They're correct:

The Link





Okay, someone is going to have to explain this to me then.  Sorry, my engineering mind found an anomaly that I need to figure out.  I guess what we could say is that hits came in bunches on the road, thus leading to more runs (to the very minor tune of 6 extra runs) whereas at Coors the hits were not so bunched and didn't lead to runs.  

Okay, I'm satisfied.

DVauthrin

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2929
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #213 on: December 14, 2006, 05:19:42 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

That's exactly what I'm wondering.  I'm beginning to lean toward the notion that the numbers are just wrong.  I think the ERAs are switched between home and road.

Which, by the way, leads me even more to think that Jennings will be a fine #2 for the Astros.





I double-checked. They're correct:

The Link




Okay, someone is going to have to explain this to me then.  Sorry, my engineering mind found an anomaly that I need to figure out.  I guess what we could say is that hits came in bunches on the road, thus leading to more runs (to the very minor tune of 6 extra runs) whereas at Coors the hits were not so bunched and didn't lead to runs.  

Okay, I'm satisfied.




It's the doubles in my opinion.   At home he faced 378 hitters with only 11 doubles allowed.  On the road he faced 44 more hitters but allowed 25 doubles.   Those extra base hits with his walk rate could easily explain the difference.
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted.

Arky Vaughan

  • Administrator
  • Pope
  • Posts: 6335
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #214 on: December 14, 2006, 05:21:32 pm »
Quote:

It's the doubles in my opinion.   At home he faced 378 hitters with only 11 doubles allowed.  On the road he faced 44 more hitters but allowed 25 doubles.   Those extra base hits with his walk rate could easily explain the difference.




Maybe. Maybe not.

Ask, and ye shall receive:

The Link

DVauthrin

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2929
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #215 on: December 14, 2006, 05:24:46 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

It's the doubles in my opinion.   At home he faced 378 hitters with only 11 doubles allowed.  On the road he faced 44 more hitters but allowed 25 doubles.   Those extra base hits with his walk rate could easily explain the difference.




Maybe. Maybe not.

Ask, and ye shall receive:

The Link




Well I mean it was an educated guess based on looking at his home/road splits last year.   That was the one stat that really stood out to me, and I could see innings where he walks a guy or two, and allows one of those 25 doubles, producing a run.
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #216 on: December 14, 2006, 05:47:44 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

It's the doubles in my opinion.   At home he faced 378 hitters with only 11 doubles allowed.  On the road he faced 44 more hitters but allowed 25 doubles.   Those extra base hits with his walk rate could easily explain the difference.




Maybe. Maybe not.

Ask, and ye shall receive:

The Link




Well I mean it was an educated guess based on looking at his home/road splits last year.   That was the one stat that really stood out to me, and I could see innings where he walks a guy or two, and allows one of those 25 doubles, producing a run.




You know, normally you are just a little concerned with a pitcher who walks his fair share or even more.  But that fear should never be because of a singular stat.  Those who misuse stats should be... oh heck, I forget Jacksonian's famous line, so I'll have to get back to you on that.... but I digress.

The important thing to do with stats is combine them with other stats as Arky did in his excellent Crunch Time piece and see what develops.  From his  quick shot analysis, he gave us the comparison of two pitchers who allow 10 hits being totally different pitchers!  That is outstanding, because you can say the same about walks, what I see some pseudo, I know more than Purpura, wanna be GM fans saying is a problem with Jennings.

If Jennings scatters his walks to avoid facing very good hitters at Coors so he can face down the #7 or 8 hitter with his sinkerball, the man is brilliant.  It won't help his BB stat line, but that is damn good pitching right there mister.  And if the same Jennings uses his four seamer more on the road and walks less people, he's showing you he is a premiere pitcher in this league.  He freaking gets it... it's more than just talent, it is talent and know how couple with experience that brings you a solid, solid, solid #2.

Now, if only they can convince him to sign on a dotted line sometime in 2007, then they're going to be more than okay!

Arky Vaughan

  • Administrator
  • Pope
  • Posts: 6335
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #217 on: December 14, 2006, 05:50:32 pm »
Quote:

From his  quick shot analysis, he gave us the comparison of two pitchers who allow 10 hits being totally different pitchers!  That is outstanding, because you can say the same about walks, what I see some pseudo, I know more than Purpura, wanna be GM fans saying is a problem with Jennings.




This is what scares me so much about Wandy. He can cruise along effectively for a few innings, then he gets into a crunch and goes to pieces.

Ironically, I always had this image of Pettitte in mind as well. He got frustrated easily. Maybe Jennings can overcome that.

Froback

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 2253
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #218 on: December 14, 2006, 05:52:37 pm »
Quote:

This is what scares me so much about Wandy. He can cruise along effectively for a few innings, then he gets into a crunch and goes to pieces.



Dotel had that issue too, the difference is Dotel could dominate for an inning or 3 at a time.  Wandy looks shaky in almost any inning.

Jacksonian

  • Contributor
  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12893
  • Anonymous Source
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #219 on: December 14, 2006, 05:52:38 pm »
Goin' for a bus ride.

das

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 3465
    • View Profile
    • Faith Home Ministries
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #220 on: December 14, 2006, 06:02:28 pm »
I still use "15% off my sammich, that's no deal." in my casual conversation.  I don't know what's funnier, me giggling at myself or the quizical looks from the other person.
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

Bench

  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 16476
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #221 on: December 14, 2006, 06:03:08 pm »
Quote:

I will not be denied.




There goes the rest of my work day.
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

DVauthrin

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2929
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #222 on: December 14, 2006, 06:06:35 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

It's the doubles in my opinion.   At home he faced 378 hitters with only 11 doubles allowed.  On the road he faced 44 more hitters but allowed 25 doubles.   Those extra base hits with his walk rate could easily explain the difference.




Maybe. Maybe not.

Ask, and ye shall receive:

The Link




Well I mean it was an educated guess based on looking at his home/road splits last year.   That was the one stat that really stood out to me, and I could see innings where he walks a guy or two, and allows one of those 25 doubles, producing a run.




You know, normally you are just a little concerned with a pitcher who walks his fair share or even more.  But that fear should never be because of a singular stat.  Those who misuse stats should be... oh heck, I forget Jacksonian's famous line, so I'll have to get back to you on that.... but I digress.

The important thing to do with stats is combine them with other stats as Arky did in his excellent Crunch Time piece and see what develops.  From his  quick shot analysis, he gave us the comparison of two pitchers who allow 10 hits being totally different pitchers!  That is outstanding, because you can say the same about walks, what I see some pseudo, I know more than Purpura, wanna be GM fans saying is a problem with Jennings.

If Jennings scatters his walks to avoid facing very good hitters at Coors so he can face down the #7 or 8 hitter with his sinkerball, the man is brilliant.  It won't help his BB stat line, but that is damn good pitching right there mister.  And if the same Jennings uses his four seamer more on the road and walks less people, he's showing you he is a premiere pitcher in this league.  He freaking gets it... it's more than just talent, it is talent and know how couple with experience that brings you a solid, solid, solid #2.

Now, if only they can convince him to sign on a dotted line sometime in 2007, then they're going to be more than okay!




I'm not concerned about jennings production.   I was just looking at the stats trying to see if something jumped out at me as odd and that did.  It could just have easily been his bullpen sucking or flat luck.  Stats have to be analyzed correctly and mixed in with the eye test.   I think the interesting thing to watch is what happens to his walk rate now that the coors factor is out of play.   I have a feeling it may decline as he feels more comfortable as a pitcher, and challenging hitters because he is out of thin air.
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted.

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #223 on: December 14, 2006, 06:13:05 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

It's the doubles in my opinion.   At home he faced 378 hitters with only 11 doubles allowed.  On the road he faced 44 more hitters but allowed 25 doubles.   Those extra base hits with his walk rate could easily explain the difference.




Maybe. Maybe not.

Ask, and ye shall receive:

The Link




Well I mean it was an educated guess based on looking at his home/road splits last year.   That was the one stat that really stood out to me, and I could see innings where he walks a guy or two, and allows one of those 25 doubles, producing a run.




You know, normally you are just a little concerned with a pitcher who walks his fair share or even more.  But that fear should never be because of a singular stat.  Those who misuse stats should be... oh heck, I forget Jacksonian's famous line, so I'll have to get back to you on that.... but I digress.

The important thing to do with stats is combine them with other stats as Arky did in his excellent Crunch Time piece and see what develops.  From his  quick shot analysis, he gave us the comparison of two pitchers who allow 10 hits being totally different pitchers!  That is outstanding, because you can say the same about walks, what I see some pseudo, I know more than Purpura, wanna be GM fans saying is a problem with Jennings.

If Jennings scatters his walks to avoid facing very good hitters at Coors so he can face down the #7 or 8 hitter with his sinkerball, the man is brilliant.  It won't help his BB stat line, but that is damn good pitching right there mister.  And if the same Jennings uses his four seamer more on the road and walks less people, he's showing you he is a premiere pitcher in this league.  He freaking gets it... it's more than just talent, it is talent and know how couple with experience that brings you a solid, solid, solid #2.

Now, if only they can convince him to sign on a dotted line sometime in 2007, then they're going to be more than okay!




I'm not concerned about jennings production.   I was just looking at the stats trying to see if something jumped out at me as odd and that did.  It could just have easily been his bullpen sucking or flat luck.  Stats have to be analyzed correctly and mixed in with the eye test.   I think the interesting thing to watch is what happens to his walk rate now that the coors factor is out of play.   I have a feeling it may decline as he feels more comfortable as a pitcher, and challenging hitters because he is out of thin air.




Oh yeah, I was only trying to cling to your coattail just to get the BB stat off my chest.  Not really meant for you... it was for... ahum... *THAT* guy over there!

DVauthrin

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2929
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #224 on: December 14, 2006, 06:18:10 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

It's the doubles in my opinion.   At home he faced 378 hitters with only 11 doubles allowed.  On the road he faced 44 more hitters but allowed 25 doubles.   Those extra base hits with his walk rate could easily explain the difference.




Maybe. Maybe not.

Ask, and ye shall receive:

The Link




Well I mean it was an educated guess based on looking at his home/road splits last year.   That was the one stat that really stood out to me, and I could see innings where he walks a guy or two, and allows one of those 25 doubles, producing a run.




You know, normally you are just a little concerned with a pitcher who walks his fair share or even more.  But that fear should never be because of a singular stat.  Those who misuse stats should be... oh heck, I forget Jacksonian's famous line, so I'll have to get back to you on that.... but I digress.

The important thing to do with stats is combine them with other stats as Arky did in his excellent Crunch Time piece and see what develops.  From his  quick shot analysis, he gave us the comparison of two pitchers who allow 10 hits being totally different pitchers!  That is outstanding, because you can say the same about walks, what I see some pseudo, I know more than Purpura, wanna be GM fans saying is a problem with Jennings.

If Jennings scatters his walks to avoid facing very good hitters at Coors so he can face down the #7 or 8 hitter with his sinkerball, the man is brilliant.  It won't help his BB stat line, but that is damn good pitching right there mister.  And if the same Jennings uses his four seamer more on the road and walks less people, he's showing you he is a premiere pitcher in this league.  He freaking gets it... it's more than just talent, it is talent and know how couple with experience that brings you a solid, solid, solid #2.

Now, if only they can convince him to sign on a dotted line sometime in 2007, then they're going to be more than okay!




I'm not concerned about jennings production.   I was just looking at the stats trying to see if something jumped out at me as odd and that did.  It could just have easily been his bullpen sucking or flat luck.  Stats have to be analyzed correctly and mixed in with the eye test.   I think the interesting thing to watch is what happens to his walk rate now that the coors factor is out of play.   I have a feeling it may decline as he feels more comfortable as a pitcher, and challenging hitters because he is out of thin air.




Oh yeah, I was only trying to cling to your coattail just to get the BB stat off my chest.  Not really meant for you... it was for... ahum... *THAT* guy over there!




No big deal.   I still think it will be interesting to track his walk rate this season because I really do think it has a strong chance to decline somewhat.   But even if it doesn't, it just tells you he has been around long enough to know which battles are worth fighting and which ones are not.    Sort of like facing Adam Everett(worth fighting) or Lance Berkman(not worth fighting).
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted.

Spider Pellini

  • Clark
  • Posts: 19
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #225 on: December 14, 2006, 06:19:50 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

It's the doubles in my opinion.   At home he faced 378 hitters with only 11 doubles allowed.  On the road he faced 44 more hitters but allowed 25 doubles.   Those extra base hits with his walk rate could easily explain the difference.




Maybe. Maybe not.

Ask, and ye shall receive:

The Link




Well I mean it was an educated guess based on looking at his home/road splits last year.   That was the one stat that really stood out to me, and I could see innings where he walks a guy or two, and allows one of those 25 doubles, producing a run.




You know, normally you are just a little concerned with a pitcher who walks his fair share or even more.  But that fear should never be because of a singular stat.  Those who misuse stats should be... oh heck, I forget Jacksonian's famous line, so I'll have to get back to you on that.... but I digress.

The important thing to do with stats is combine them with other stats as Arky did in his excellent Crunch Time piece and see what develops.  From his  quick shot analysis, he gave us the comparison of two pitchers who allow 10 hits being totally different pitchers!  That is outstanding, because you can say the same about walks, what I see some pseudo, I know more than Purpura, wanna be GM fans saying is a problem with Jennings.

If Jennings scatters his walks to avoid facing very good hitters at Coors so he can face down the #7 or 8 hitter with his sinkerball, the man is brilliant.  It won't help his BB stat line, but that is damn good pitching right there mister.  And if the same Jennings uses his four seamer more on the road and walks less people, he's showing you he is a premiere pitcher in this league.  He freaking gets it... it's more than just talent, it is talent and know how couple with experience that brings you a solid, solid, solid #2.

Now, if only they can convince him to sign on a dotted line sometime in 2007, then they're going to be more than okay!




I'm not concerned about jennings production.   I was just looking at the stats trying to see if something jumped out at me as odd and that did.  It could just have easily been his bullpen sucking or flat luck.  Stats have to be analyzed correctly and mixed in with the eye test.   I think the interesting thing to watch is what happens to his walk rate now that the coors factor is out of play.   I have a feeling it may decline as he feels more comfortable as a pitcher, and challenging hitters because he is out of thin air.




Oh yeah, I was only trying to cling to your coattail just to get the BB stat off my chest.  Not really meant for you... it was for... ahum... *THAT* guy over there!





You fellars never heard of home field advantage?

No? in Austin

  • Guest
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #226 on: December 14, 2006, 06:23:16 pm »
Quote:

Sort of like facing Adam Everett(worth fighting) or Lance Berkman(not worth fighting).




"Ouch" - Chris Carpenter

DVauthrin

  • Fantasy Team Owner
  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2929
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #227 on: December 14, 2006, 06:25:28 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Sort of like facing Adam Everett(worth fighting) or Lance Berkman(not worth fighting).




"Ouch" - Chris Carpenter





It still makes me chuckle to read Lance's wilkpedia bio.  

 Owns Chris Carpenter
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted.

Arky Vaughan

  • Administrator
  • Pope
  • Posts: 6335
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #228 on: December 15, 2006, 12:36:02 am »
Quote:

So far I like the upgrades to the offense but this team has a serious lack of speed.  Outside of Burke and Everett, maybe Biggio, there is no one who really threatens to go 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home on anything other that a well hit ball.




For purposes of comparison, here's how most of the Astros did in 2006, plus Carlos Lee:
          1st to 3rd  2nd to Home  1st to Home
           on Single    on Single    on Double
Player   Taken  Opps  Taken  Opps  Taken  Opps
----------------------------------------------
Taveras     12    22     24    30      6     6
----------------------------------------------
Everett      2     7     12    21      2     4
Ausmus       4    18      8    15      3     4
Berkman      8    19      9    13      1     8
Biggio       7    27     11    20      5     6
Ensberg      5    28      8    11      0     1
Scott        1     5      5    10      0     0
Lane         5    11      6     8      5     7
Lamb         5    19      9    14      2     6
Bruntlett    1     2      3     6      0     0
Burke        4    15     10    15      1     2
----------------------------------------------
Total       42   151     81   133     19    38
----------------------------------------------
Lee          9    24     13    27      2    11
The totals are without Willy, so you can get an idea of how Willy stacked up to everyone else.

S.P. Rodriguez

  • Key Member of the Conspiracy
  • Posts: 2932
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #229 on: December 15, 2006, 08:52:20 am »
Quote:

Quote:

So far I like the upgrades to the offense but this team has a serious lack of speed.  Outside of Burke and Everett, maybe Biggio, there is no one who really threatens to go 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home on anything other that a well hit ball.




For purposes of comparison, here's how most of the Astros did in 2006, plus Carlos Lee:
          1st to 3rd  2nd to Home  1st to Home
           on Single    on Single    on Double
Player   Taken  Opps  Taken  Opps  Taken  Opps
----------------------------------------------
Taveras     12    22     24    30      6     6
----------------------------------------------
Everett      2     7     12    21      2     4
Ausmus       4    18      8    15      3     4
Berkman      8    19      9    13      1     8
Biggio       7    27     11    20      5     6
Ensberg      5    28      8    11      0     1
Scott        1     5      5    10      0     0
Lane         5    11      6     8      5     7
Lamb         5    19      9    14      2     6
Bruntlett    1     2      3     6      0     0
Burke        4    15     10    15      1     2
----------------------------------------------
Total       42   151     81   133     19    38
----------------------------------------------
Lee          9    24     13    27      2    11
The totals are without Willy, so you can get an idea of how Willy stacked up to everyone else.




Speed has no value, right <heavy sarcasm>?  I know, I know, not all singles are created equal and a great deal depends on the base coache, but that is a serious drop between Willy and the rest of the team.  What is even more surprising is that Berkman leads the rest of the team in those opportunties on singles, behind Willy. It will be interesting to see what Garner does with this lineup but I hope it involves Burke and Everett at the top of the lineup with a greenlight to take as many bases as they can.
"If you don't read the newspaper you are uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed."

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous, he will not bite you; that is the principal difference between a dog and a man. "

-Mark Twain

Phil_in_CS

  • Should Have Quit 500 Posts Ago
  • Posts: 1511
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #230 on: December 15, 2006, 09:22:30 am »
Quote:

I will not be denied.




I don't know if it was Breedlove's post on that page or not, but I found AC via an Iron Chef fan site in 2001...

BudGirl

  • Contributor
  • Illuminati
  • Posts: 17776
  • Brad Ausmus' Slave
    • View Profile
Re: Astros trade for Jennings
« Reply #231 on: December 15, 2006, 11:34:32 am »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

It's the doubles in my opinion.   At home he faced 378 hitters with only 11 doubles allowed.  On the road he faced 44 more hitters but allowed 25 doubles.   Those extra base hits with his walk rate could easily explain the difference.




Maybe. Maybe not.

Ask, and ye shall receive:

The Link




Well I mean it was an educated guess based on looking at his home/road splits last year.   That was the one stat that really stood out to me, and I could see innings where he walks a guy or two, and allows one of those 25 doubles, producing a run.




You know, normally you are just a little concerned with a pitcher who walks his fair share or even more.  But that fear should never be because of a singular stat.  Those who misuse stats should be... oh heck, I forget Jacksonian's famous line, so I'll have to get back to you on that.... but I digress.

The important thing to do with stats is combine them with other stats as Arky did in his excellent Crunch Time piece and see what develops.  From his  quick shot analysis, he gave us the comparison of two pitchers who allow 10 hits being totally different pitchers!  That is outstanding, because you can say the same about walks, what I see some pseudo, I know more than Purpura, wanna be GM fans saying is a problem with Jennings.

If Jennings scatters his walks to avoid facing very good hitters at Coors so he can face down the #7 or 8 hitter with his sinkerball, the man is brilliant.  It won't help his BB stat line, but that is damn good pitching right there mister.  And if the same Jennings uses his four seamer more on the road and walks less people, he's showing you he is a premiere pitcher in this league.  He freaking gets it... it's more than just talent, it is talent and know how couple with experience that brings you a solid, solid, solid #2.

Now, if only they can convince him to sign on a dotted line sometime in 2007, then they're going to be more than okay!




I'm not concerned about jennings production.   I was just looking at the stats trying to see if something jumped out at me as odd and that did.  It could just have easily been his bullpen sucking or flat luck.  Stats have to be analyzed correctly and mixed in with the eye test.   I think the interesting thing to watch is what happens to his walk rate now that the coors factor is out of play.   I have a feeling it may decline as he feels more comfortable as a pitcher, and challenging hitters because he is out of thin air.




Oh yeah, I was only trying to cling to your coattail just to get the BB stat off my chest.  Not really meant for you... it was for... ahum... *THAT* guy over there!





You fellars never heard of home field advantage?




I've missed Spider.
''I just did an interview with someone I like more than you. I used a lot of big words on him. I don't have anything left for you.'' --Brad Ausmus

Well behaved women rarely make history.