RedSox Insanity Question

[Alkie]

Did anyone ever find out for sure whether or not the Sox get their $51m back if they don't reach an agreement with Matsuzaka?

I think I figured this thing out.

[Bench]

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Did anyone ever find out for sure whether or not the Sox get their $51m back if they don't reach an agreement with Matsuzaka?

I think I figured this thing out.

Yeah. No deal reached, they get a complete refund.

For those Euro-types that hang about here, is this how transfers in Non-American football work? Are the transfer fees refundable? How much leverage does a player have to refuse to play for a team that he's transfered to?

[MusicMan]

They do get all of it back.  They also piss off an entire market where they're trying to expand Nation.

[Alkie]

Ok, it looks like that is the case.  The Sox get their money back if no deal is signed.

Alright, I'm sure this was brought up last week and I'm just being REALLY slow about this, but here goes.

Everyone on Earth knew the Yankees were going to win the bidding with somewhere between $20-$30m, right?

So you own the RedSox, what do you do?  You make an outrageous bid that the Yankees couldn't possibly top.  You put your giant sum in escrow in Japan and spend 30 days lowballing the Greatest Pitcher Who Hasn't Played Here Yet.

At the end of 30 days, you say "well, we tried!  Can we get our money back?"  

Japan releases the escrow, you get your cash back, and for literally $0 (minus legal fees) you blocked your rival from signing the hottest FA on the market.

Because at the end of 30 days, it doesn't go to the next highest bidder, he goes back to Japan.

Brilliant.

[Bench]

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Ok, it looks like that is the case.  The Sox get their money back if no deal is signed.

Alright, I'm sure this was brought up last week and I'm just being REALLY slow about this, but here goes.

Everyone on Earth knew the Yankees were going to win the bidding with somewhere between $20-$30m, right?

So you own the RedSox, what do you do?  You make an outrageous bid that the Yankees couldn't possibly top.  You put your giant sum in escrow in Japan and spend 30 days lowballing the Greatest Pitcher Who Hasn't Played Here Yet.

At the end of 30 days, you say "well, we tried!  Can we get our money back?"  

Japan releases the escrow, you get your cash back, and for literally $0 (minus legal fees) you blocked your rival from signing the hottest FA on the market.

Because at the end of 30 days, it doesn't go to the next highest bidder, he goes back to Japan.

Brilliant.

I think you're underthinking yourself here.

By doing that they piss off the Japanese teams which makes it far less likely they'll get a player in the future. Plus, Matsuzaka would be in the majors next year anyway, so your one year reprieve is hardly worth hampering their position in a growing talent market. That wouldn't be brilliant, that would be short-sighted and stupid.

I think they really want the pitcher, they really want a strong presence in Japan (think of the ratings  when Matsuzaka pitches against H.Matsui or Ichiro), the marketing and merchandise sold, and to be a place where Japanese, and other Asian players, want to go.

[Taras Bulba]

Do they have scrod in Japan?  Just curious.

[Froback]

That sounds worse than Jockitch.

[Limey]

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For those Euro-types that hang about here, is this how transfers in Non-American football work? Are the transfer fees refundable? How much leverage does a player have to refuse to play for a team that he's transfered to?

I think a player can refuse a transfer, but this rarely happens (or happens before the deal is struck so it doesn't become public).  The transactions are almost always for cash and the player gets 10-15% of the transfer fee, hence the rarity of a refusal.

Wayne Rooney, for example was transferred from Everton to the MU Rowdies for about $60mm, so he pocketed somewhere between $6mm and $9mm for his trouble.  He also gets paid about $5mm a year.

[pravata]

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Ok, it looks like that is the case.  The Sox get their money back if no deal is signed.

Alright, I'm sure this was brought up last week and I'm just being REALLY slow about this, but here goes.

Everyone on Earth knew the Yankees were going to win the bidding with somewhere between $20-$30m, right?

So you own the RedSox, what do you do?  You make an outrageous bid that the Yankees couldn't possibly top.  You put your giant sum in escrow in Japan and spend 30 days lowballing the Greatest Pitcher Who Hasn't Played Here Yet.

At the end of 30 days, you say "well, we tried!  Can we get our money back?"  

Japan releases the escrow, you get your cash back, and for literally $0 (minus legal fees) you blocked your rival from signing the hottest FA on the market.

Because at the end of 30 days, it doesn't go to the next highest bidder, he goes back to Japan.

Brilliant.

I think you're underthinking yourself here.

By doing that they piss off the Japanese teams which makes it far less likely they'll get a player in the future. Plus, Matsuzaka would be in the majors next year anyway, so your one year reprieve is hardly worth hampering their position in a growing talent market. That wouldn't be brilliant, that would be short-sighted and stupid.

I think they really want the pitcher, they really want a strong presence in Japan (think of the ratings  when Matsuzaka pitches against H.Matsui or Ichiro), the marketing and merchandise sold, and to be a place where Japanese, and other Asian players, want to go.

To me, the size of the Red Sox bid lends some credence to Alkie's theory. Way over bid. I like the 1 part too. That's a standard Price is Right tactic.  Or so I've seen as I surfed past looking for porn, or sports.  I like the other aspect of this strategy, the yanking Boras' chain part.  The pissing off Japan angle is also valid though.

[hostros7]

The revenues from the Japanese market will more than make up for the premium they paid for this guy.

Anyone else think the Red Sox Yankees feud at the end of Ocean's 12 was one of the low points in creative endeavor?  It was as though the writers' said, "Fuck it, maybe its at least a resume booster if I have to go work in TV at Fox."

[Bench]

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Ok, it looks like that is the case.  The Sox get their money back if no deal is signed.

Alright, I'm sure this was brought up last week and I'm just being REALLY slow about this, but here goes.

Everyone on Earth knew the Yankees were going to win the bidding with somewhere between $20-$30m, right?

So you own the RedSox, what do you do?  You make an outrageous bid that the Yankees couldn't possibly top.  You put your giant sum in escrow in Japan and spend 30 days lowballing the Greatest Pitcher Who Hasn't Played Here Yet.

At the end of 30 days, you say "well, we tried!  Can we get our money back?"  

Japan releases the escrow, you get your cash back, and for literally $0 (minus legal fees) you blocked your rival from signing the hottest FA on the market.

Because at the end of 30 days, it doesn't go to the next highest bidder, he goes back to Japan.

Brilliant.

I think you're underthinking yourself here.

By doing that they piss off the Japanese teams which makes it far less likely they'll get a player in the future. Plus, Matsuzaka would be in the majors next year anyway, so your one year reprieve is hardly worth hampering their position in a growing talent market. That wouldn't be brilliant, that would be short-sighted and stupid.

I think they really want the pitcher, they really want a strong presence in Japan (think of the ratings  when Matsuzaka pitches against H.Matsui or Ichiro), the marketing and merchandise sold, and to be a place where Japanese, and other Asian players, want to go.

To me, the size of the Red Sox bid lends some credence to Alkie's theory. Way over bid. I like the 1 part too. That's a standard Price is Right tactic.  Or so I've seen as I surfed past looking for porn, or sports.  I like the other aspect of this strategy, the yanking Boras' chain part.  The pissing off Japan angle is also valid though.

It definately was a significant overbid, reports I've heard had the Mets coming in second around $32 million. The 1.1 is classic. I can almost hear the debate between Theo and Larry:

"Screw it, let's just throw down 50 and be done with it."
"But what if someone else does that?"
"Fine. We'll go to 51."
"But George and Brian might be having that exact same thought!"
"I've got it. 51.1! There's no way they could come up with that!"
"What if they go to 52?"
"Please go away."

Also, Boras doesn't have his usual self-created leverage in this situation. There can be no mystery bidders, there's a finite deadline, and the client really wants to play in the majors. According to Gammons, Matsuzaka would "lose face" if he had to go back to Japan for a year, for whatever that's worth. The Red Sox are in the drivers seat in the negotiations, and can get a reasonable (though obviously lucrative for Matsuzaka) three to five year deal. The rest is just the cost of getting a foot in the door that opens up to a much larger room than the services of one very good pitcher.

[Arky Vaughan]

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The revenues from the Japanese market will more than make up for the premium they paid for this guy.

How are the Red Sox going to see a direct benefit to them of $51 million from Japan out of this?

[MusicMan]

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The revenues from the Japanese market will more than make up for the premium they paid for this guy.

How are the Red Sox going to see a direct benefit to them of $51 million from Japan out of this?

They have a private TV channel.  Between that and merchandizing, they'll do well.  Maybe not $51M well, but well.

[Arky Vaughan]

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The revenues from the Japanese market will more than make up for the premium they paid for this guy.

How are the Red Sox going to see a direct benefit to them of $51 million from Japan out of this?

They have a private TV channel.  Between that and merchandizing, they'll do well.  Maybe not $51M well, but well.

If they're able to keep most or all of the revenues from their channel (is it NESN?), then they can probably make it all up there. I assume the merchandising has to be split, but maybe I'm wrong.

[hostros7]

It's NESN, and I think those bastards get every game in HD.

[Lefty]

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They have a private TV channel.  Between that and merchandizing, they'll do well.  Maybe not $51M well, but well.

When pitching Matsuzaka to the Sox, Boras quoted a figure of $20M/year as the revenue generated for the Yankees in Japan from Hikeki Matsui.  Boras is lying, most likely, but say it's half that....

The Link

[schlumburger04]

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Ok, it looks like that is the case.  The Sox get their money back if no deal is signed.

Alright, I'm sure this was brought up last week and I'm just being REALLY slow about this, but here goes.

Everyone on Earth knew the Yankees were going to win the bidding with somewhere between $20-$30m, right?

So you own the RedSox, what do you do?  You make an outrageous bid that the Yankees couldn't possibly top.  You put your giant sum in escrow in Japan and spend 30 days lowballing the Greatest Pitcher Who Hasn't Played Here Yet.

At the end of 30 days, you say "well, we tried!  Can we get our money back?"  

Japan releases the escrow, you get your cash back, and for literally $0 (minus legal fees) you blocked your rival from signing the hottest FA on the market.

Because at the end of 30 days, it doesn't go to the next highest bidder, he goes back to Japan.

Brilliant.

Selig has the power to step in and bitch slap the redsox if he feels like they are doing just that. Theyre gonna have to actually try and sign him, but to be fair, its hard to see where the line between lowballing and actual worth is at.

He could give the rights to matsuzaka to the next highest bidder if he wants, which would be the mets i think.

[MusicMan]

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Ok, it looks like that is the case.  The Sox get their money back if no deal is signed.

Alright, I'm sure this was brought up last week and I'm just being REALLY slow about this, but here goes.

Everyone on Earth knew the Yankees were going to win the bidding with somewhere between $20-$30m, right?

So you own the RedSox, what do you do?  You make an outrageous bid that the Yankees couldn't possibly top.  You put your giant sum in escrow in Japan and spend 30 days lowballing the Greatest Pitcher Who Hasn't Played Here Yet.

At the end of 30 days, you say "well, we tried!  Can we get our money back?"  

Japan releases the escrow, you get your cash back, and for literally $0 (minus legal fees) you blocked your rival from signing the hottest FA on the market.

Because at the end of 30 days, it doesn't go to the next highest bidder, he goes back to Japan.

Brilliant.

Selig has the power to step in and bitch slap the redsox if he feels like they are doing just that. Theyre gonna have to actually try and sign him, but to be fair, its hard to see where the line between lowballing and actual worth is at.

He could give the rights to matsuzaka to the next highest bidder if he wants, which would be the mets i think.

It's a Japanese League rule.  How would Selig have authority to do squat about it?

[Alkie]

He doesn't.  Carry on.

[schlumburger04]

 

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How would Selig have authority to do squat about it?

It might be the anti-trust excemption, i dont know, but he just can. youre gonna have to trust me on this one cause i dont have time to find a link right now.

[Taras Bulba]

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How would Selig have authority to do squat about it?

It might be the anti-trust excemption, i dont know, but he just can. youre gonna have to trust me on this one cause i dont have time to find a link right now.

In Schulumberger We Trust.

[MusicMan]

Not that I don't trust you - well, I don't - but it appears you are correct in this instance.  According to Buster Olney, paragraph 13 of the US-Japanese player contract agreement reads:

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The U.S. Commissioner shall have the authority to oversee the bidding procedures & to ensure they have not been undermined in any manner. Among other actions that he may deem appropriate and in the best interests in baseball, the U.S. Commissioner shall have the authority to revoke a U.S. Major League Club?s negotiation rights with respect to a Japanese player& to award such rights to the next highest bidder& and to declare null and void any contract between a Japanese Player and a U.S. Major League club that the U.S. Commissioner deems was the result of conduct that was inconsistent with this Agreement or otherwise not in the best interests of professional baseball.

[Alkie]

No shit.

Schlumburger, I owe you an apology.  You were right, I assumed you weren't.

[homer]

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No shit.

Schlumburger, I owe you an apology.  You were right, I assumed you weren't.

1/109... not a bad average.

p.s. congrats on 4000 Alkie. By the low standards set by schlum you should have at least 40 posts that are worth a shit by now.

[VirtualBob]

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For those Euro-types that hang about here, is this how transfers in Non-American football work? Are the transfer fees refundable? How much leverage does a player have to refuse to play for a team that he's transfered to?

I think a player can refuse a transfer, but this rarely happens (or happens before the deal is struck so it doesn't become public).  The transactions are almost always for cash and the player gets 10-15% of the transfer fee, hence the rarity of a refusal.

Wayne Rooney, for example was transferred from Everton to the MU Rowdies for about $60mm, so he pocketed somewhere between $6mm and $9mm for his trouble.  He also gets paid about $5mm a year.

Also, the deal is usually worked out between player and new team first.  In the case at hand it is sort of a contingent transfer fee ... contingent on the Red Sox working out a deal with whatshisname.

[Arky Vaughan]

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No shit.

Schlumburger, I owe you an apology.  You were right, I assumed you weren't.

1/109... not a bad average.

p.s. congrats on 4000 Alkie. By the low standards set by schlum you should have at least 40 posts that are worth a shit by now.

Actually, with a 1/109 average and 4,000 posts, Alkie's WASPF, or worth-a-shit-post-factor, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity, would be:

4,000 / 109 = 36.697

Alkie would need 4,360 posts to break a WASPF of 40, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity.

Keep striving, Alkie.

[Arky Vaughan]

That's a rate stat, by the way, not a counting stat.

[VirtualBob]

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No shit.

Schlumburger, I owe you an apology.  You were right, I assumed you weren't.

1/109... not a bad average.

p.s. congrats on 4000 Alkie. By the low standards set by schlum you should have at least 40 posts that are worth a shit by now.

Actually, with a 1/109 average and 4,000 posts, Alkie's WASPF, or worth-a-shit-post-factor, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity, would be:

4,000 / 109 = 36.697

Alkie would need 4,360 posts to break a WASPF of 40, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity.

Keep striving, Alkie.

Yeah ... but Alkie has more power ... a lot of doubles and triples in those 36.almost7 hits.

[pravata]

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Not that I don't trust you - well, I don't - but it appears you are correct in this instance.  According to Buster Olney, paragraph 13 of the US-Japanese player contract agreement reads:

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The U.S. Commissioner shall have the authority to oversee the bidding procedures & to ensure they have not been undermined in any manner. Among other actions that he may deem appropriate and in the best interests in baseball, the U.S. Commissioner shall have the authority to revoke a U.S. Major League Club?s negotiation rights with respect to a Japanese player& to award such rights to the next highest bidder& and to declare null and void any contract between a Japanese Player and a U.S. Major League club that the U.S. Commissioner deems was the result of conduct that was inconsistent with this Agreement or otherwise not in the best interests of professional baseball.

Bud Selig? Drags around a podium wherever he goes?  Has a closet full of bad suits?  Rents space on his head to a family of hamsters? Or are ya'll talking about another Bud Selig?  On the other side we have Scott Boras, who is by definition, "...inconsistent with ...or otherwise not in the best interests of professional baseball".  

Good luck getting the Boston Red Sox Baseball Club Limited Partnership, John W. Henry, and Thomas C. Werner into court over that. The grim details of the Expos to Nationals, Marlins to Red Sox caper might finally see the light of day.  The Red Sox may indeed be serious about signing this guy, Red Sox fans will be scratching their heads as to why Johnny Damon is a Yankee and Bob Abreu isn't a Red Sox while it's going on, but fear of Bud Selig and some addenda to a codicil of an amendment to a contract wont be the reason.

[MusicMan]

I didn't say there was a snowball's chance in hell that he WOULD do it.  But he COULD, and schlumburger found the proverbial acorn on that one.

[pravata]

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I didn't say there was a snowball's chance in hell that he WOULD do it.  But he COULD, and schlumburger found the proverbial acorn on that one.

Selig has always been able to do anything, regarding any trade, if it's in "the best interest of baseball".

[homer]

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No shit.

Schlumburger, I owe you an apology.  You were right, I assumed you weren't.

1/109... not a bad average.

p.s. congrats on 4000 Alkie. By the low standards set by schlum you should have at least 40 posts that are worth a shit by now.

Actually, with a 1/109 average and 4,000 posts, Alkie's WASPF, or worth-a-shit-post-factor, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity, would be:

4,000 / 109 = 36.697

Alkie would need 4,360 posts to break a WASPF of 40, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity.

Keep striving, Alkie.

Yeah ... but Alkie has more power ... a lot of doubles and triples in those 36.almost7 hits.

Wrong. Alkie's WASPs count for more because he is a CPA/PFS. Its hard to find CPA/PFSs that post worth a shit with any sort of consistency...

Edit to fix my fuck up, in order that it might have a chance to be a post worth a shit.

[austro]

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Actually, with a 1/109 average and 4,000 posts, Alkie's WASPF, or worth-a-shit-post-factor, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity, would be:

4,000 / 109 = 36.697

Alkie would need 4,360 posts to break a WASPF of 40, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity.

Keep striving, Alkie.

That doesn't really tell us anything until you let us know his VORP (Value Over Replacement Poster).  But even with that, I'm not really sure how you quantify the value of learning what stray turtles will and will not eat.

[JaneDoe]

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Actually, with a 1/109 average and 4,000 posts, Alkie's WASPF, or worth-a-shit-post-factor, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity, would be:

4,000 / 109 = 36.697

Alkie would need 4,360 posts to break a WASPF of 40, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity.

Keep striving, Alkie.

That doesn't really tell us anything until you let us know his VORP (Value Over Replacement Poster).  But even with that, I'm not really sure how you quantify the value of learning what stray turtles will and will not eat.

It's not nice to call them stray turtles anymore.  They are velocity challenged mobile home inhabitants.

[Alkie]

It's not PC to use the term "politically correct" anymore either.

And if you want to get technical, first we called him "Mr. Snapee" and now he's "Stork Food".

[JaneDoe]

Ours is "Franklin" and he has salmonella, so he goes to the pond at the ranch over the Thanksgiving holiday.

[T. J.]

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No shit.

Schlumburger, I owe you an apology.  You were right, I assumed you weren't.

1/109... not a bad average.

p.s. congrats on 4000 Alkie. By the low standards set by schlum you should have at least 40 posts that are worth a shit by now.

Dang Alkie, wasn't your "Mr 3000" post just a month or so ago?  You're making up for quality with quantity, anyway.

(By the way, thanks again for the "office pool" magnets - got 'em the other day.)

[strosrays]

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Wrong. Alkie's WASPs count for more because he is a CPA/PFS. Its hard to find CPA/PFSs that post worth a shit with any sort of consistency...

IOW, he knows his FASBEs.

I usually go to Screwball Prospectus (ScrewPro) and look at a poster's PANOCHA card to get a real feel for WASPs, VORPs, and the like.

[VirtualBob]

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Actually, with a 1/109 average and 4,000 posts, Alkie's WASPF, or worth-a-shit-post-factor, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity, would be:

4,000 / 109 = 36.697

Alkie would need 4,360 posts to break a WASPF of 40, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity.

Keep striving, Alkie.

That doesn't really tell us anything until you let us know his VORP (Value Over Replacement Poster).  But even with that, I'm not really sure how you quantify the value of learning what stray turtles will and will not eat.

Given the recent run of Clarks as an indicator of the value of a replacement poster, I'd say that his VORP would be greater than his raw score.

[VirtualBob]

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Actually, with a 1/109 average and 4,000 posts, Alkie's WASPF, or worth-a-shit-post-factor, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity, would be:

4,000 / 109 = 36.697

Alkie would need 4,360 posts to break a WASPF of 40, assuming a schlumburger rate of productivity.

Keep striving, Alkie.

That doesn't really tell us anything until you let us know his VORP (Value Over Replacement Poster).  But even with that, I'm not really sure how you quantify the value of learning what stray turtles will and will not eat.

It's not nice to call them stray turtles anymore.  They are velocity challenged mobile home inhabitants.

So ... Does that mean that his VORP would need to be trailer-park adjusted?

[Limey]

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Also, the deal is usually worked out between player and new team first.  In the case at hand it is sort of a contingent transfer fee ... contingent on the Red Sox working out a deal with whatshisname.

"Name" players will be allowed to do this, but Joe Schmoccer gets to take his new assignment and lump it.  As I said before, he gets a piece of the transfer fee, so unless Chelsea are going to pay him $150,000 a week, he's better off collecting 10% of as many transfers as he can get.

[Limey]

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Selig has always been able to do anything, regarding any trade, if it's in "the best interest of baseball".

See roof, retractable.

[pravata]

Snake Lips, on how much his client is going to get

Currently, the highest average salary among pitchers is the $16 million Randy Johnson is getting from the Yankees. Houston's Roy Oswalt will average $14.6 million under the five-year contract he starts next year.

"I'm sure that he wanted to stay in Houston and took a hometown discount to do so," Scott Boras, Matsuzaka's agent, said when asked whether Oswalt's deal was a starting point in discussions for D-Mat. ...

I have it on good authority that Oswalt was as mad as a wet thing that gets very angry when it gets wet because the Astros almost traded him to the Mets.  Not to mention him saying very specifically he wasnt giving any discounts.  The reality based community will note that Oswalt does have the 2nd highest contract for a pitcher.  

For this next quote, I'm afraid I'm going to have to ask anyone with a weak heart and or bladder to leave the room.  We'll wait.... Ok,

"I'm going to first assume that this whole process is done in good faith," Boras said.
The Link

[Limey]

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"I'm going to first assume that this whole process is done in good faith," Boras said.

Thanks for that.

[MusicMan]

Good god, man.  Your YouTube skills are becoming disturbing.

At least prav's googling is used for good.

[pravata]

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I can almost hear the debate between Theo and Larry:

"Screw it, let's just throw down 50 and be done with it."
"But what if someone else does that?"
"Fine. We'll go to 51."
"But George and Brian might be having that exact same thought!"
"I've got it. 51.1! There's no way they could come up with that!"
"What if they go to 52?"
"Please go away."
...

But he didn't, even odder

The Boston Red Sox's bid -- $ 51,111,111.11, to be exact --
The Link

Just to answer your next question, his jersey number is 18.

[BUWebguy]

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But he didn't, even odder

The Boston Red Sox's bid -- $ 51,111,111.11, to be exact --
The Link

Just to answer your next question, his jersey number is 18.

Maybe that translates into an even amount of yen?

[Froback]

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But he didn't, even odder

The Boston Red Sox's bid -- $ 51,111,111.11, to be exact --
The Link

Just to answer your next question, his jersey number is 18.

Maybe that translates into an even amount of yen?

It did, 6 Billion to be exact.