footer: dunn and his drool

[HPFRic]

didn't see this anywhere; from footer's latest mailbag:

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Rumor has it that the Reds are getting rid of their big strikeout hitter -- Adam Dunn. Do you think the Astros will try to get him on a trade? I would love to see Adam here! His hometown is New Caney.
-- Samuel R., Houston

Apparently, Dunn is salivating at the idea of playing for his hometown Astros. And yes, the Reds are throwing around the idea of trading him for pitching. So it's something that I'm sure both teams will look into this winter.

I've made my opinions of Dunn clear in past mailbags, and those opinions aren't too popular among those who want the 6-foot-6 slugger in the Astros' lineup. I won't beat around the bush -- his 194 strikeouts make my stomach turn. The Astros have enough hitters who whiff on a much-too-regular basis. Why add another?

But a friend of mine who is close to the Reds organization swayed my opinions a bit. First of all, as we know, Dunn is a terrific home run hitter. He's hit at least 40 three years in a row. And he walks a lot. He's drawn at least 100 free passes in each of the last three seasons. He's averaging .380 in on-base percentage over that same span of time -- not too shabby.

He'd look quite nice hitting in the cleanup spot, behind Lance Berkman. Yes, I'll admit that. But a .234 batting average? Yikes.

her ridiculously asinine opinion of dunn aside (he's 26 and has a career ops of nearly .900 - nearly 60 points higher than lee and soriano), what would you be willing to part with to land him?

because if dunn CAN be had, he's jump to the top of my wishlist this winter.

[pravata]

The Link

[Taras Bulba]

What makes her opinion "ridiculously asinine?"

[Limey]

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What makes her opinion "ridiculously asinine?"

She's a chick.

[pravata]

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What makes her opinion "ridiculously asinine?"

I think he whistled past the Ensberg discussion.  Putting the ball in play is so 1970s.

[Froback]

I am still trying to figure out how Dunn had 40+ HRs last year and didn't have 100 RBIs...

I love the long-ball as much as anyone but doesn't it come down to RBIs in an RBI spot more than simply HRs?

Which is the better guy to have:

.310 hitter with 25 HRs and 110 RBIs
.234 hitter with 40 HRs and 95 RBIs?

So it either speaks to how bad Reds were in getting on infront of him or how over-rated HRs are instead of RBI production.

All that being said, I will take Dunn if the offer is right.  I like him as much as I like Lee, which means I think he would be a good addition, but is not in the Berkman cat.

Edited in: I just picked numbers out of the air, not real players.

[JimR]

because it is not his opinion.

[Alkie]

Just for the record here...if the Astros wanted Dunn, I have a feeling the talks would include something like Lidge, Qualls, Hirsh, Patton, and Buchholz.  Not one of them.  All of them.

Oh, or Oswalt.

[MusicMan]

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Just for the record here...if the Astros wanted Dunn, I have a feeling the talks would include something like Lidge, Qualls, Hirsh, Patton, and Buchholz.  Not one of them.  All of them.

Oh, or Oswalt.

Well, they started the talks with Oswalt last time.

Seriously - I think Dunn is a nice hitter, but what makes him a better cleanup hitter than Ensberg?

[HPFRic]

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What makes her opinion "ridiculously asinine?"

because it's ridiculously asinine to not want adam dunn on your team. especially for, of all reasons, his BA. good god.

true, as she points out, his K rate is a bit alarming, but not as much in light of his other production. a player is going to make anywhere from 350-450 outs a year; ultimately, who cares how they do it if they're still getting on base nearly 40% of the time (career OB% of .380), jacking 40 dingers, driving in 100+ runners and not killing rallies with DPs (he's grounded into 38 in nearly 3k ML ABs)?

[pravata]

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I am still trying to figure out how Dunn had 40+ HRs last year and didn't have 100 RBIs...

I love the long-ball as much as anyone but doesn't it come down to RBIs in an RBI spot more than simply HRs?

Which is the better guy to have:

.310 hitter with 25 HRs and 110 RBIs
.234 hitter with 40 HRs and 95 RBIs?

So it either speaks to how bad Reds were in getting on infront of him or how over-rated HRs are instead of RBI production.

All that being said, I will take Dunn if the offer is right.  I like him as much as I like Lee, which means I think he would be a good addition, but is not in the Berkman cat.

Edited in: I just picked numbers out of the air, not real players.

For a 4 hitter? I like the guy who hits the ball.  The homeruns are good, especially if Ensberg is on base in front of him...But with all the Ks, the best thing you could say about him is at least he didnt dp.  There is the theory that RBI is team dependent.  Of course it is, baseball is a team game.  When is that going to change?

[Taras Bulba]

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What makes her opinion "ridiculously asinine?"

because it's ridiculously asinine to not want adam dunn on your team. especially for, of all reasons, his BA. good god.

true, as she points out, his K rate is a bit alarming, but not as much in light of his other production. a player is going to make anywhere from 350-450 outs a year; ultimately, who cares how they do it if they're still getting on base nearly 40% of the time (career OB% of .380), jacking 40 dingers, driving in 100+ runners and not killing rallies with DPs (he's grounded into 38 in nearly 3k ML ABs)?

Did you not read her entire statement on Dunn?  I found it to be very well reasoned.  She stated her reservations and then displayed the rare talent among sportswriters that she may be wrong and had discussed her opionion with others to seek further insight.  There are very few adults intelligently opining on baseball matters and Footer is one of them.  "Asinine" is alternatively spelled J-U-S-T-I-C-E.

[Golden Sombrero]

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Just for the record here...if the Astros wanted Dunn, I have a feeling the talks would include something like Lidge, Qualls, Hirsh, Patton, and Buchholz.  Not one of them.  All of them.

Oh, or Oswalt.

Well, they started the talks with Oswalt last time.

Seriously - I think Dunn is a nice hitter, but what makes him a better cleanup hitter than Ensberg?

At least he's consistent.

[HPFRic]

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Seriously - I think Dunn is a nice hitter, but what makes him a better cleanup hitter than Ensberg?

consistentcy.

the guy'll turn 27 next month and is signed thru 2008; i couldn't find exact #'s, but my guess is that he'd come cheaper than carlos lee, in terms of salary.

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Just for the record here...if the Astros wanted Dunn, I have a feeling the talks would include something like Lidge, Qualls, Hirsh, Patton, and Buchholz. Not one of them. All of them.

i'd give them a choice: lidge or qualls? hirsh or patton? and we'll throw in buchholz.

froback, it is weird, but likely just the luck of the draw; i notice he hit 5th quite a bit last year behind jr. and aurilla, and they had 142 RsBI between them.

[HPFRic]

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Did you not read her entire statement on Dunn?

yes; and it ended with her "yikes"ing at his BA after she essentially conceded that she had never bothered to pull up his ESPN player page and look at tired, useless stats like homer runs, walks, runs created - and other such bothersome fodder, focusing instead on Ks, which, frankly, IS very justice of her. i expect better from ms. footer.

again, it?s asinine to, at any point, not want adam dunn on your baseball team.

[Alkie]

You'd give them Qualls, Hirsh, and Buchholz for Adam Dunn?

I'm not saying that's "crazy" or anything, but that seems excessive.

I don't know.  Maybe not.

[MusicMan]

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You'd give them Qualls, Hirsh, and Buchholz for Adam Dunn?

I'm not saying that's "crazy" or anything, but that seems excessive.

I don't know.  Maybe not.

Not if Krivsky gives Purpura the courtesy of a reacharound.

[JimR]

hell, yes, it is.

[JGrave]

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You'd give them Qualls, Hirsh, and Buchholz for Adam Dunn?

I'm not saying that's "crazy" or anything, but that seems excessive.

I don't know.  Maybe not.

Helping a division rival fix their biggest weakness (pitching) seems asinine when you can fix your weakness (run producing) elsewhere.

[Lefty]

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froback, it is weird, but likely just the luck of the draw; i notice he hit 5th quite a bit last year behind jr. and aurilla, and they had 142 RsBI between them.

He's hit 40 3 years running and his RBI totals are 102/101/92.  No luck involved.

He's signed for next year at 11M & has a club option for '08 at 13M.

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it's asinine to, at any point, not want Adam Dunn on your baseball team.

What if another player is a better fit?

[Lefty]

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Helping a division rival fix their biggest weakness (pitching) seems asinine when you can fix your weakness (run producing) elsewhere.

Bingo.

If ol' Adam wants so badly to play in Houston, he'll have the opportunity in 2 years.

[pravata]

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You'd give them Qualls, Hirsh, and Buchholz for Adam Dunn?

I'm not saying that's "crazy" or anything, but that seems excessive.

I don't know.  Maybe not.

Helping a division rival fix their biggest weakness (pitching) seems asinine when you can fix your weakness (run producing) elsewhere.

As Purpura says "It's tough to win without offense, but it's impossible to win without pitching."  Anybody who is following the Astros and doesn't realize that this is their guiding principle is going to be very disappointed.

[HPFRic]

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You'd give them Qualls, Hirsh, and Buchholz for Adam Dunn?

yes, i would. dunn is a *premiere* power hitter in this league. i'd give up a top prospect, mid-level prospect and middle reliever any day to get a guy like dunn.

again, he's 27 and signed thru 2008. and, per footer, "salivating' at the chance to come home.

[jwhudson]

then wait two years and see if he is still anxious to move.

[HPFRic]

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Helping a division rival fix their biggest weakness (pitching) seems asinine when you can fix your weakness (run producing) elsewhere.

cincinnati would be correcting one flaw while creating another; trading dunn would be asinine.

and carlos lee (especially at $13-15M/year) is NOT a better option. neither is soriano.

career ops:
ad: .893
cl/as: .835

2007 ages:
ad: 27
cl: 31
as: 31

2007 salary:
ad: $11M
cl/as: more than $11M

[Limey]

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I am still trying to figure out how Dunn had 40+ HRs last year and didn't have 100 RBIs...

He is an extreme, all or nothing hitter.  Perhaps with a good eye for the zone (unless all those walks were intentional).  But, when he sees a pitch to hit, he misses it way too much.

[JGrave]

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Helping a division rival fix their biggest weakness (pitching) seems asinine when you can fix your weakness (run producing) elsewhere.

cincinnati would be correcting one flaw while creating another; trading dunn would be asinine.

and carlos lee (especially at $13-15M/year) is NOT a better option. neither is soriano.

career ops:
ad: .893
cl/as: .835

2007 ages:
ad: 27
cl: 31
as: 31

2007 salary:
ad: $11M
cl/as: more than $11M

I never said either was a better option.  I just said they are an option.  

Cincy will be able to score runs.  They would still have a pretty good lineup.  Some good pitching (especially relief) would probably put them over the top.  

My vote is to wait the two years and then snag him.

[Golden Sombrero]

Dunn is not all that appreciated in Cincy.  They don't think he hits anything when runners are on base.  The HR-RBI numbers seem to bear that out.  Although he was improving with hitting with runners on this season.  

Bottom line, Dunn is not as popular in the Nasty Nati as he would be in Houston.  He'll come here when he has the chance, I think.  He certainly won't stay there.

[Arky Vaughan]

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Dunn is not all that appreciated in Cincy.  They don't think he hits anything when runners are on base.  The HR-RBI numbers seem to bear that out.  Although he was improving with hitting with runners on this season.  

Bottom line, Dunn is not as popular in the Nasty Nati as he would be in Houston.  He'll come here when he has the chance, I think.  He certainly won't stay there.

Dunn has a career .412 OBP and .512 slugging percentage with runners on base. He drives in runs just fine. He also doesn't make outs very often, which means he keeps the inning alive.

[HPFRic]

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I never said either was a better option.  I just said they are an option.

right; so let's take the older, more expensive, less productive option... sound.  

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Cincy will be able to score runs.  They would still have a pretty good lineup.  Some good pitching (especially relief) would probably put them over the top.

cincinnati was 22nd last year in runs scored and now they may move their top run producer... not generally a sound idea.

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My vote is to wait the two years and then snag him.

interesting, so you're suggesting we DON'T get him when he's in his prime, but instead wait for him to get older and pay him a lot more money. brilliant!

if that's the plan, might as well get carlos lee this year.

[schlumburger04]

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Just for the record here...if the Astros wanted Dunn, I have a feeling the talks would include something like Lidge, Qualls, Hirsh, Patton, and Buchholz.  Not one of them.  All of them.

Oh, or Oswalt.

reds GM traded half his team last year for bullpen help. He probably considers a guy like qualls or wheeler as GOLD

[pravata]

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...cincinnati was 22nd last year in runs scored ...

Yet they had Adam Dunn.  The Reds have begun to get a clue.  Their pitching kept them in it for as long as it lasted.

[Arky Vaughan]

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cincinnati was 22nd last year in runs scored and now they may move their top run producer... not generally a sound idea.

Hey, they could be 30th in runs scored, but if they had enough pitching, they could win the World Series. Theoretically.

[stubbyc]

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...cincinnati was 22nd last year in runs scored ...

Yet they had Adam Dunn.  The Reds have begun to get a clue.  Their pitching kept them in it for as long as it lasted.

Arroyo and Harang did, but the rest of their pitching didn't. Their bullpen acquisitions were for the most part disasters. They might have needed relief pitching, but trading Kearns, Lopez, and Wagner for Majewski and Bray looks like a pretty shitty move now (and did at the time too).

[Arky Vaughan]

Could you please point to me in the Wikipedia article where it says runs created is a rate stat?

[schlumburger04]

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Could you please point to me in the Wikipedia article where it says runs created is a rate stat?

is that a serious question or do i really have to explain it again

[seib22]

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I never said either was a better option.  I just said they are an option.

right; so let's take the older, more expensive, less productive option... sound.  

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Cincy will be able to score runs.  They would still have a pretty good lineup.  Some good pitching (especially relief) would probably put them over the top.

cincinnati was 22nd last year in runs scored and now they may move their top run producer... not generally a sound idea.

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My vote is to wait the two years and then snag him.

interesting, so you're suggesting we DON'T get him when he's in his prime, but instead wait for him to get older and pay him a lot more money. brilliant!

if that's the plan, might as well get carlos lee this year.

This is the same scenario as Vernon Wells.  You have to give up something to get something.  If the Astros sign Soriano or Lee, they are not dealing their top prospects.  Like others have stated...If Dunn wants to come to Houston so bad, wait 2 years until he becomes a FA.  Oh, and I dont believe that 28-29 years old would be considered washed up.  He just might still be in his prime?

[strosrays]

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I am still trying to figure out how Dunn had 40+ HRs last year and didn't have 100 RBIs...

He is an extreme, all or nothing hitter.  Perhaps with a good eye for the zone (unless all those walks were intentional).  But, when he sees a pitch to hit, he misses it way too much.

As someone already said, the way he missed 100 RBIs while hitting 40 HRs is by hitting .234.  I once was in a trivia contest on this topic -- who hit the most HRs in a season while failing to drive in 100 runs?  IIRC, it was either Harmon Killebrew or Willie Mays, something like 47 HR, 96 RBIs one year. (I believe this came up in 2000, when Troy Glaus was making a run at it.)

I wonder how 40+ HRs for a LH hitter who plays half his games at Smokestacks Field translates to MMPUS?

Just curious.

His career OPS at GAB is .953 (.254/.387/.566), on the road .852 (.240/.368/.452) -- 100 pts. difference.  1 HR every 11.38 AB at GAB, 1/16.53 on the road. (He strikes out every third AB no matter where he is.)

BTW, in MMPUS he is .245/.371/.468 (.839), 1 HR every 23.16 AB.  In his defense, Dunn's platoon splits aren't very significant overall.  

Still a good offensive player, but I wouldn't give up good pitching for him, not based on four years in a bandbox.

[pravata]

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...cincinnati was 22nd last year in runs scored ...

Yet they had Adam Dunn.  The Reds have begun to get a clue.  Their pitching kept them in it for as long as it lasted.

Arroyo and Harang did, but the rest of their pitching didn't. Their bullpen acquisitions were for the most part disasters. They might have needed relief pitching, but trading Kearns, Lopez, and Wagner for Majewski and Bray looks like a pretty shitty move now (and did at the time too).

All that was a disaster, but, they did something at the trade deadline; which is what's important.  The real problem for the Astros is, they've realized it's about the pitching.  No use sending a bunch of potentially good pitchers their way.

[Arky Vaughan]

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is that a serious question or do i really have to explain it again

You haven't explained why you think it's a rate stat.

[Froback]

Ric,

  I will agree Dunn is a better option than Lee or Soriano.  But the other two only cost money (and maybe a 1st round pick in 07).  Dunn would cost alot in proven pitchers (in the ML or in the minors).

   The Astros are already potentially losing their #2 and #3 starting pitching, and you are suggesting they trade away their #4 (Hirsh) a potential #5 (Buchholz) and their best young closer type RP (Qualls), for Dunn.  I am not sure I can swallow that much for the benefits Dunn gives you over Lee or Soriano.

   If all things were equal Dunn would be my #1 choice and for the right deal he still would be, but not for a deal like you suggested (or said you would do).  Not when someone close to the same middle of the order production like Lee is also available at a similar cost.

   I doubt the Astros pay Lee more than $13 per year, if that.  He (as others have pointed out) isn't in Berkman class to get the $15 Mil type contract.  Not to mention if he really wants to play in Houston, let's see the home town discount.  I would like to see them land him for $11-12 per year, which is pretty much in-line with what he is worth.

[HPFRic]

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Yet they had Adam Dunn.

and the astros had lance berkman and ranked 25th... my guess is that removing berkman from the astros' line-up for pitching would probably - pure speculation on my part - make the offense worse.

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The Reds have begun to get a clue.  Their pitching kept them in it for as long as it lasted.

maybe they should pay three frontline starters; that seems to be a guarantee of success.

[Froback]

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This is the same scenario as Vernon Wells.

If given equal deals for Wells and Dunn, give me Wells, every time!

[schlumburger04]

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is that a serious question or do i really have to explain it again

You haven't explained why you think it's a rate stat.

its formula is OBP times total bases i shouldnt have to explain to you why thats a rate and not a measurable

[pravata]

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Yet they had Adam Dunn.

and the astros had lance berkman and ranked 25th... my guess is that removing berkman from the astros' line-up for pitching would probably - pure speculation on my part - make the offense worse.

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The Reds have begun to get a clue.  Their pitching kept them in it for as long as it lasted.

maybe they should pay three frontline starters; that seems to be a guarantee of success.

Very nearly.  I hope the Reds don't try it.

[Nate in IA]

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is that a serious question or do i really have to explain it again

You haven't explained why you think it's a rate stat.

its formula is OBP times total bases i shouldnt have to explain to you why thats a rate and not a measurable

This must be what 'new math' gets you.

[Ty in Tampa]

Pompous assholes?

[HPFRic]

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Dunn would cost alot in proven pitchers (in the ML or in the minors).

no minor leaguer is "proven."

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I am not sure I can swallow that much for the benefits Dunn gives you over Lee or Soriano.

fair enough; but i think you're a) overvaluing potential (not to mention, middle relievers) and b) not accounting for the $$ savings.

i have NO idea what lee is willing to take, but we know he turned down 4/$48M from the beers, and we know dunn is set to make $24M the next two years. my guess is lee wouldn;t be a penny cheaper and that, as one of 2 really good FAs available, is likely to get offered something closer to the $15M range.

so not only could you potentially save $$ over the next two years (to be used to land arms), but you're not locked in to paying a 35-year old $12-15M as he (potentially) deteriorates 3-4 years from now.

[Golden Sombrero]

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This is the same scenario as Vernon Wells.

If given equal deals for Wells and Dunn, give me Wells, every time!

No argument here.

[Nate in IA]

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Pompous assholes?

Actually, yes.  That is what usuallly results when people think they know something but really don't.

[HPFRic]

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Very nearly.  I hope the Reds don't try it.

lucky for us, hirsh, buchholz and qualls are not frontline starters. so their search would continue on w/o dunn in their everyday line-up; i think the astros come out ahead in that deal.

[pravata]

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Very nearly.  I hope the Reds don't try it.

lucky for us, hirsh, buchholz and qualls are not frontline starters. so their search would continue on w/o dunn in their everyday line-up; i think the astros come out ahead in that deal.

Lucky for us it's not your call.

[Arky Vaughan]

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its formula is OBP times total bases i shouldnt have to explain to you why thats a rate and not a measurable

No, you shouldn't have to explain it to me, because it's wrong. The runs created formula arrives at a total that's the equivalent of a counting stat. A corresponding rate stat is runs created per 27 outs, although you could do it per at-bats, plate appearances or whatever.

Let's take a simple example:

In 2006, Craig Biggio created an estimated 71 runs:

.306 OBP * .422 slugging * 548 at-bats = 71 RC

In his career, Craig Biggio has created an estimated 1,658 runs:

.367 OBP * .436 slugging * 10,359 at-bats = 1,658 RC

Now, if runs created were a rate stat, that would mean that Craig Biggio has been 2,235 percent more productive in his career than he was in 2006:

1,658 / 71 = 23.35 - 1.00 = 22.35 or 2,235 percent

This would be a meaningless point. You can say, for example, that Craig Biggio's career batting average was 15 percent better than his 2006 batting average:

.283 / .246 = 1.15 - 1.00 = .15 or 15 percent

This is an illustration of why throwing around numbers without understanding them is problematic. It is also an example of why people keep telling you to read more, post less, until you can figure out what's going on.

[MusicMan]

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is that a serious question or do i really have to explain it again

You haven't explained why you think it's a rate stat.

its formula is OBP times total bases i shouldnt have to explain to you why thats a rate and not a measurable

Hmmmm... who wrote this?
 

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runs created = ((hits+walks) x total bases))/(atbats + walks)

you see, smarter guys than either me or you have put alot of thought into how to value a hitter. forgive me if i take their word and not yours.

OBP does not equal (hits+walks)/(AB+walks).  But surely you know this, since you're here to enlighten us all as to the mysteries of "math" and "statistics".

But even accepting that you are going to use this bastardized form of OBP, look at the above and tell me HOW IT IS A RATE.  A rate (OBP) multiplied by a counting stat(total bases) does not give another rate.

[MusicMan]

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This is an illustration of why throwing around numbers without understanding them is problematic. It is also an example of why people keep telling you to read more, post less, until you can figure out what's going on.

It also tells me that there's a high probability that we're dealing with an engineer who just got through school without understanding basic mathematic principles.

[jaklewein]

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its formula is OBP times total bases i shouldnt have to explain to you why thats a rate and not a measurable

No, you shouldn't have to explain it to me, because it's wrong. The runs created formula arrives at a total that's the equivalent of a counting stat. A corresponding rate stat is runs created per 27 outs, although you could do it per at-bats, plate appearances or whatever.

Let's take a simple example:

In 2006, Craig Biggio created an estimated 71 runs:

.306 OBP * .422 slugging * 548 at-bats = 71 RC

In his career, Craig Biggio has created an estimated 1,658 runs:

.367 OBP * .436 slugging * 10,359 at-bats = 1,658 RC

Now, if runs created were a rate stat, that would mean that Craig Biggio has been 2,235 percent more productive in his career than he was in 2006:

1,658 / 71 = 23.35 - 1.00 = 22.35 or 2,235 percent

This would be a meaningless point. You can say, for example, that Craig Biggio's career batting average was 15 percent better than his 2006 batting average:

.283 / .246 = 1.15 - 1.00 = .15 or 15 percent

This is an illustration of why throwing around numbers without understanding them is problematic. It is also an example of why people keep telling you to read more, post less, until you can figure out what's going on.

God bless ya Arky.  Gotta love this website and its members.

[VirtualBob]

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This is an illustration of why throwing around numbers without understanding them is problematic. It is also an example of why people keep telling you to read more, post less, until you can figure out what's going on.

It also tells me that there's a high probability that we're dealing with an engineer who just got through school without understanding basic mathematic principles.

You're going to offend a lot of engineers if you put scumburger in that category.

[Arky Vaughan]

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It also tells me that there's a high probability that we're dealing with an engineer who just got through school without understanding basic mathematic principles.

In the olden days, I had to learn this stuff using a TI calculator and accounting ledger paper, and if someone mentioned a thing called a wikipedia, you'd have thought it was a nasty injury sustained while playing cricket.

[Nate in IA]

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This is an illustration of why throwing around numbers without understanding them is problematic. It is also an example of why people keep telling you to read more, post less, until you can figure out what's going on.

It also tells me that there's a high probability that we're dealing with an engineer who just got through school without understanding basic mathematic principles.

You're going to offend a lot of engineers if you put scumburger in that category.

Not at all.  There are those of us who actually DO understand math and have no problem with the recognition of the contrary.

[MusicMan]

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In the olden days, I had to learn this stuff using a TI calculator  

RPN in da house!!

(Sorry, geek moment.)

[Nate in IA]

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In the olden days, I had to learn this stuff using a TI calculator  

RPN in da house!!

(Sorry, geek moment.)

Not on a TI.. that's HP.

[Froback]

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In the olden days, I had to learn this stuff using a TI calculator  

RPN in da house!!

(Sorry, geek moment.)

While I haven't used one since, my first calc was RPN... man that can screw you up going from RPN to non-RPN.

[Nate in IA]

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In the olden days, I had to learn this stuff using a TI calculator  

RPN in da house!!

(Sorry, geek moment.)

While I haven't used one since, my first calc was RPN... man that can screw you up going from RPN to non-RPN.

I can't stand using an infix calculator to this day because of that.  RPN is so much faster.

[schlumburger04]

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its formula is OBP times total bases i shouldnt have to explain to you why thats a rate and not a measurable

No, you shouldn't have to explain it to me, because it's wrong. The runs created formula arrives at a total that's the equivalent of a counting stat. A corresponding rate stat is runs created per 27 outs, although you could do it per at-bats, plate appearances or whatever.

Let's take a simple example:

In 2006, Craig Biggio created an estimated 71 runs:

.306 OBP * .422 slugging * 548 at-bats = 71 RC

In his career, Craig Biggio has created an estimated 1,658 runs:

.367 OBP * .436 slugging * 10,359 at-bats = 1,658 RC

Now, if runs created were a rate stat, that would mean that Craig Biggio has been 2,235 percent more productive in his career than he was in 2006:

1,658 / 71 = 23.35 - 1.00 = 22.35 or 2,235 percent

This would be a meaningless point. You can say, for example, that Craig Biggio's career batting average was 15 percent better than his 2006 batting average:

.283 / .246 = 1.15 - 1.00 = .15 or 15 percent

This is an illustration of why throwing around numbers without understanding them is problematic. It is also an example of why people keep telling you to read more, post less, until you can figure out what's going on.

oh i get it now thanks

[VirtualBob]

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In the olden days, I had to learn this stuff using a TI calculator  

RPN in da house!!

(Sorry, geek moment.)

While I haven't used one since, my first calc was RPN... man that can screw you up going from RPN to non-RPN.

OK.  Now only Polock engineers will be offended.

[MusicMan]

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In the olden days, I had to learn this stuff using a TI calculator  

RPN in da house!!

(Sorry, geek moment.)

Not on a TI.. that's HP.

(Shamefacedly hands over his geek card...)

[Froback]

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In the olden days, I had to learn this stuff using a TI calculator  

RPN in da house!!

(Sorry, geek moment.)

Not on a TI.. that's HP.

(Shamefacedly hands over his geek card...)

And here I thought it was attached since birth!

[Limey]

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In the olden days, I had to learn this stuff using a TI calculator and accounting ledger paper, and if someone mentioned a thing called a wikipedia, you'd have thought it was a nasty injury sustained while playing cricket.

Fuck that shit.  I had to do a three-hour math paper using only log tables.  No calculators allowed.

[Limey]

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oh i get it now thanks

Which part?  Arky's explanation or the fact that you should use your eyes more than your fingers on this board?

[Burzmali]

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For a 4 hitter? I like the guy who hits the ball.  The homeruns are good, especially if Ensberg is on base in front of him...But with all the Ks, the best thing you could say about him is at least he didnt dp.  There is the theory that RBI is team dependent.  Of course it is, baseball is a team game.  When is that going to change?

The point of the "theory" that you're talking about is that if it's team dependent, it really isn't a great measure of a player's ability because the player can't control it to the extent of other stats.

By your logic, do you consider all offensive statistics team dependent?

[pravata]

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For a 4 hitter? I like the guy who hits the ball.  The homeruns are good, especially if Ensberg is on base in front of him...But with all the Ks, the best thing you could say about him is at least he didnt dp.  There is the theory that RBI is team dependent.  Of course it is, baseball is a team game.  When is that going to change?

The point of the "theory" that you're talking about is that if it's team dependent, it really isn't a great measure of a player's ability because the player can't control it to the extent of other stats.

By your logic, do you consider all offensive statistics team dependent?

Of course I do. Everything is either true or false with me.  Or, a 0 or a 1.

[mihoba]

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because it's ridiculously asinine to not want adam dunn on your team. especially for, of all reasons, his BA. good god.

Adam Dunn has the glamour stats, but have you watched him play? Really watched him? IMO he is a terrible outfielder with absolutely no range, and as for his baserunning, think clogged.

He has massive power and a good eye at the plate. That is the two positive traits of Adam Dunn the baseball player.

He is a huge man. He is not going to get faster. It wouldn't be that big of a deal if he had a bit of quickness, but he is a plodder. First base/DH is the only place a club should consider him, if that club wants to win.

No thanks.

[Burzmali]

Come on man, I was just making a point. Just because baseball is a team game doesn't negate the fact that RBI's aren't a great way to determine ability. For the record, I think Dunn's H/R splits are a bit troubling. Still wouldn't mind having him on the team.

[pravata]

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Come on man, I was just making a point. Just because baseball is a team game doesn't negate the fact that RBI's aren't a great way to determine ability. For the record, I think Dunn's H/R splits are a bit troubling. Still wouldn't mind having him on the team.

The ability to produce RBI, other than the RBI that accumulate from the intersection of SLG and team OBP, comes from the hitters approach to an atbat.  Walking with a runner on second or taking the biggest cut possible isn't always helpful.  The Astros had a problem with RBI, Garner thought it was because they took the wrong approach.  He explained this here, The Link

[Burzmali]

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Come on man, I was just making a point. Just because baseball is a team game doesn't negate the fact that RBI's aren't a great way to determine ability. For the record, I think Dunn's H/R splits are a bit troubling. Still wouldn't mind having him on the team.

The ability to produce RBI, other than the RBI that accumulate from the intersection of SLG and team OBP, comes from the hitters approach to an atbat.  Walking with a runner on second or taking the biggest cut possible isn't always helpful.  The Astros had a problem with RBI, Garner thought it was because they took the wrong approach.  He explained this here, The Link

Interesting point of view. So you think Dunn's approach needs improvement?

I tend to think that if players really do change their approach with RISP, it won't help them too much. You want them to expand the strike zone to make sure they don't walk?

As far as approach goes, players should focus on having productive at-bats and not making outs. Dunn does this well in addition to having tremendous power. Pretty much an excellent hitter.

[mihoba]

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As far as approach goes, players should focus on having productive at-bats and not making outs. Dunn does this well in addition to having tremendous power. Pretty much an excellent hitter.

I wouldn't call a .234 batting average with 1.48 strikeouts for every hit an excellent hitter. However, he is a good on-base player, but the majority of his outs (194 K's in '06) are NOT productive.

I may be in the minority here, but Dunn in my eyes is not a good all around baseball player. All or nothing is how I would classify him.

[JimR]

"BA is not useful." "RBI are not useful."

how do you YOU determine a hitter's value, Mr. Just
Registered Genius?

Dunn is anything but "an excellent hitter." power, walks and a K machine.

why has the TZ become trolls on parade?

[stubbyc]

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why has the TZ become trolls on parade?

What the fuck is your definition of troll? Anyone who doesn't share the exact same viewpoint as you?

[homer]

 

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For the record, I think Dunn's H/R splits are a bit troubling. Still wouldn't mind having him on the team.

 

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Pretty much an excellent hitter.

Which is it?

I think its a stretch to call him excellent. Lance is excellent. Pujols is excellent. Dunn has too many problems to be considered excellent.

[JimR]

ah, ole stubby is back--my most consistent current stalker.

what is your complaint du jour?

[pravata]

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Come on man, I was just making a point. Just because baseball is a team game doesn't negate the fact that RBI's aren't a great way to determine ability. For the record, I think Dunn's H/R splits are a bit troubling. Still wouldn't mind having him on the team.

The ability to produce RBI, other than the RBI that accumulate from the intersection of SLG and team OBP, comes from the hitters approach to an atbat.  Walking with a runner on second or taking the biggest cut possible isn't always helpful.  The Astros had a problem with RBI, Garner thought it was because they took the wrong approach.  He explained this here, The Link

Interesting point of view. So you think Dunn's approach needs improvement?

I tend to think that if players really do change their approach with RISP, it won't help them too much. You want them to expand the strike zone to make sure they don't walk?

As far as approach goes, players should focus on having productive at-bats and not making outs. Dunn does this well in addition to having tremendous power. Pretty much an excellent hitter.

Do I think?  No, I'm not that arrogant.  I have noticed that the Astros were frustrated last season with hitters walking in RBI situations.  They were also publicly frustrated with some hitters approach with runners on, see the quotation by Phil Garner detailing the problem. I think Adam Dunn has both of those problems.

[stubbyc]

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ah, ole stubby is back--my most consistent current stalker.

I'm not stalking you. Don't flatter yourself.

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what is your complaint du jour?

The same as it always is. You label everyone who disagrees with you a troll and whine to someone to get them banned.

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Interesting point of view. So you think Dunn's approach needs improvement?

I tend to think that if players really do change their approach with RISP, it won't help them too much. You want them to expand the strike zone to make sure they don't walk?

As far as approach goes, players should focus on having productive at-bats and not making outs. Dunn does this well in addition to having tremendous power. Pretty much an excellent hitter.

You consider this trolling? I don't think Dunn's an excellent hitter at all, but this is not trolling.

[Burzmali]

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"BA is not useful." "RBI are not useful."

how do you YOU determine a hitter's value, Mr. Just
Registered Genius?

Dunn is anything but "an excellent hitter." power, walks and a K machine.

why has the TZ become trolls on parade?

Well, there are alot of factors to consider. Basically the stats reflect that he's a power hitter with good enough plate discipline to have a solid OBP even with the low average. Those two factors make him a productive hitter. I don't think the K's or the low average significantly mitigate his production.

As far as the Astros are concerned, if Huff is resigned I think Carlos Lee would be a better fit in the lineup. With Ensberg's power decrease, the lineup needs a right handed power hitter. Besides the lefty issue, the home/away splits are a concern.

[stubbyc]

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As far as the Astros are concerned, if Huff is resigned I think Carlos Lee would be a better fit in the lineup. With Ensberg's power decrease, the lineup needs a right handed power hitter. Besides the lefty issue, the home/away splits are a concern.

I agree which is another reason I'd prefer Ensberg to Huff. A middle of the order of Berkman, Huff, Scott figures to struggle mightily against LHP and be susceptible to the opposing manager just bringing in a lefty reliever when those 3 come up.

A lineup with Ensberg, Berkman, Lee, Scott, Burke/Biggio 2-6 would seem to provide more balance.

[kevinG]

Stubby, I'd recommend against endorsing Ensberg. This board is clearly against him, despite the fact that he's really good at not making outs, a main component of baseball.

Also I find the similarities between Dunn and Ensberg striking. Low BA causes them to be underrated, but both with great plate discipline and good at getting on base. The Reds have it right, using Dunn in the 2-hole. I wish the Astros had the same kind of wisdom.

[HudsonHawk]

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A lineup with Ensberg, Berkman, Lee, Scott, Burke/Biggio 2-6 would seem to provide more balance.

Balance means exactly squat if it doesn't mean more runs scored.  I'd rather have a L-L-L lineup who struggles against lefties than a L-R-L lineup that struggles against lefties AND righties.

[HudsonHawk]

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Stubby, I'd recommend against endorsing Ensberg. This board is clearly against him, despite the fact that he's really good at not making outs, a main component of baseball.

First of all, some friendly advice....the "martyr/me against the rest of the board" act is guaranteed to fail miserably every time.  Secondly, driving in runs is also a main component of baseball, something Ensberg is paid to and requested to do.  Yet he's not very good at it.  It's not all about OBP for every single hitter.

[JimR]

"very good at not making outs"

now tell me how Ensberg actually had a great year in 2006


hahahahahaha

[strosrays]

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Stubby, I'd recommend against endorsing Ensberg. This board is clearly against him, despite the fact that he's really good at not making outs, a main component of baseball.

Also I find the similarities between Dunn and Ensberg striking. Low BA causes them to be underrated, but both with great plate discipline and good at getting on base. The Reds have it right, using Dunn in the 2-hole. I wish the Astros had the same kind of wisdom.

Yes.  The Reds have been noted for their wisdom for some time.  Its why they do so well every year.

I'm not usually down with trolls, but this post made me laugh out loud, on a Monday morning, so credit where credit's due.

Ensberg
.270 BA
1 K/5.3 AB
1 HR/19 AB
1 BB/6.4 AB
.270/.370/.486 (.856)

Compact RH hitter with a relatively short swing

Dunn
.245 BA
1 K/3 AB
1 HR/14.3 AB
1 BB/4.9 AB
.245/.380/.513 (.893)

Extremely large LH hitter with a long, looping swing


Yes.  Strikingly similar.  And the Reds should be lauded for using a classic cleanup hitter out of the #2 hole.


Anyway, if you're here to educate us, 1.) don't assume we haven't already gone over some of your bright ideas, and 2.) lose the persecution complex.  Other than occasional debauchery and beer, this board isn't unified for or against anything, as far as I can tell.  Troll.

[VirtualBob]

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because it's ridiculously asinine to not want adam dunn on your team. especially for, of all reasons, his BA. good god.

Adam Dunn has the glamour stats, but have you watched him play? Really watched him? IMO he is a terrible outfielder with absolutely no range, and as for his baserunning, think clogged.

He has massive power and a good eye at the plate. That is the two positive traits of Adam Dunn the baseball player.

He is a huge man. He is not going to get faster. It wouldn't be that big of a deal if he had a bit of quickness, but he is a plodder. First base/DH is the only place a club should consider him, if that club wants to win.

No thanks.

Think Dave Kingman.  But slower.

[Limey]

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I tend to think that if players really do change their approach with RISP, it won't help them too much. You want them to expand the strike zone to make sure they don't walk?

Go and watch "Little Big League" where they very clearly and simply explain why this is way too complicated to answer with a "yes" and "no".

What base is the RISP on?  Who's hitting?  Who's on deck?  What inning?  Home or away?  What's the score?  Who's available to PH?  All of these things will have an impact on whether the hitter at the plate will choose to expand his zone or have a more patient approach (or even be told which to do by the manager).

[Burzmali]

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As far as the Astros are concerned, if Huff is resigned I think Carlos Lee would be a better fit in the lineup. With Ensberg's power decrease, the lineup needs a right handed power hitter. Besides the lefty issue, the home/away splits are a concern.

I agree which is another reason I'd prefer Ensberg to Huff. A middle of the order of Berkman, Huff, Scott figures to struggle mightily against LHP and be susceptible to the opposing manager just bringing in a lefty reliever when those 3 come up.

A lineup with Ensberg, Berkman, Lee, Scott, Burke/Biggio 2-6 would seem to provide more balance.

I think ideally the Astros re-sign Huff and sign Lee. Platoon Huff and Ensberg at 3B, and platoon Scott and Burke or Lane in the outfield.

vs. RHP, you'd have Berkman, Scott, Huff, Lee in the middle of the order. vs. LHP, you'd have Ensberg, Berkman, Lee, Lane/Burke. Not too shabby, if you look at Ensberg's splits.

[strosrays]

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As far as the Astros are concerned, if Huff is resigned I think Carlos Lee would be a better fit in the lineup. With Ensberg's power decrease, the lineup needs a right handed power hitter. Besides the lefty issue, the home/away splits are a concern.

I agree which is another reason I'd prefer Ensberg to Huff. A middle of the order of Berkman, Huff, Scott figures to struggle mightily against LHP and be susceptible to the opposing manager just bringing in a lefty reliever when those 3 come up.

A lineup with Ensberg, Berkman, Lee, Scott, Burke/Biggio 2-6 would seem to provide more balance.

I think ideally the Astros re-sign Huff and sign Lee. Platoon Huff and Ensberg at 3B, and platoon Scott and Burke or Lane in the outfield.

vs. RHP, you'd have Berkman, Scott, Huff, Lee in the middle of the order. vs. LHP, you'd have Ensberg, Berkman, Lee, Lane/Burke. Not too shabby, if you look at Ensberg's splits.

A Scott and Burke platoon isn't a bad idea - I am guessing that is one consideration the team is looking at, moving forward.  Of course, that would mean more complaints that Burke isn't getting enough playing time, is neglected, etc., but no matter.

An Ensberg/Huff platoon won't happen, for economic reasons first of all -- two of the higher salaries on the team sharing a position?  I doubt it.  Not to mention if it is a strict platoon, you are limiting Ensberg to 200-250 ABs, while meantime lesser hitters in the lineup get the full compliment.  Finally, Ensberg and Huff's splits aren't severe enough to warrant a platoon, even in a fantasy league.

Huff
vs. Right .288/.350/.498 (.848)
20.7 AB/HR

vs. Left  .276/.325/.427 (.752)
31.9 AB/HR


MoBerg
vs. Right  .263/.356/.469 (.825)
20.2 AB/HR

vs. Left  .290/.419/.541 (.960)
16.3 HR/AB


If you have both guys, you might do some intra-lineup platooning, moving them up and down in the order depending on the opponents starter.  The reduction in the number of available position players (due to bullpen roster hegemony) means strict platooning is going the way of complete games and the 250 IP, 20-game winner, anyway.

[stubbyc]

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A lineup with Ensberg, Berkman, Lee, Scott, Burke/Biggio 2-6 would seem to provide more balance.

Balance means exactly squat if it doesn't mean more runs scored.  I'd rather have a L-L-L lineup who struggles against lefties than a L-R-L lineup that struggles against lefties AND righties.

I agree. I wouldn't stick any RH hitter in there just to make sure we don't have three lefties in a row, I just think it's a consideration.