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Author Topic: If They Played the Games On Paper:  (Read 4716 times)

Alkie

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If They Played the Games On Paper:
« on: September 26, 2006, 11:09:43 am »
Today:
Astros at Pirates
Andy Pettite vs Ian Snell
Astros should win.
Padres at Cardinals
Woody Williams vs Chris Carpenter
Cardinals should win.  
Astros 2.5 out.

Wednesday:
Astros at Pirates
Jason Hirsh vs Shawn Chacon
Astros should win because they own Chacon.
Padres at Cardinals
Chris Young vs Anthony Reyes
Padres should win.  
Astros 1.5 out.

Thursday:
Astros at Pirates
Roy Oswalt vs Tom Gorzelanny
Duh.  Astros should win.
Brewers at Cardinals
Doug Davis vs Jason Marquis
Somewhat of a toss-up, but the Cardinals should win.  
Astros 1.5 out.

Friday:
Astros at Braves
Clemens vs James
Astros should win Rocket's last last last game ever.
Brewers at Cardinals
Capuano vs Weaver
Brewers should win.  
Astros .5 out.

Saturday:
Astros at Braves
Sampson vs Cormier
Braves should win.
Brewers at Cardinals
Sheets vs Suppan
Toss-up again, but Cardinals should win (Sheets has been pounded by the Cards this year).  
Astros 1.5 out.

Sunday:
Astros at Braves
Pettitte vs Smoltz
Man, I hate to say it, but Braves should win.  Fucking Smoltz.
Brewers at Cardinals
Villanueva vs Carpenter
Cardinals should win.
Astros 2.5 out.

Season ends.  No playoff game necessary.

Basically, Sheets and Sampson are the big variables if everything else goes as "planned."  Cardinals really have no business going better than 4-2.
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Limey

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2006, 11:22:45 am »
I think Sheets - Suppan is a toss up.  Suppan is not good, he's talked up by La Russa as being part of their strong rotation, because he's their #2 (entirely appropriate).  He lasted 3.2 innings last night and gave up 5 runs.  His ERA is near-5.

Suppan will be tight, Sheets will be relaxed.

Anyway, it doesn't matter.  Nothing this week will go according to plan.
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Alkie

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2006, 11:25:05 am »
I think you're probably right, which scares me.  Not that you're right, but that we won't sweep the Bucs as God intends, and that something stupid will happen and the Braves series will be meaningless.

Hell, we could beat Smoltz.  Carpenter could leave the game and the horrific Cards bullpen could lose the game.

I can tell you this...if I have to try to sleep tonight only a game and a half out, I'll be even more tired than I am today.
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OldBlevins

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2006, 11:36:42 am »
Of course, if they played the games on paper, the Astros should have taken a game or two from Philly in Houston and they shouldn't have swept the Cardinals.
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Alkie

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2006, 11:40:16 am »
I never said this is what would actually happen, I just wanted to know (for myself) what the season would end at if all the remaining pitching matchups played out.

The problem with rooting against the natural matchups is that we're the ones with the advantage in most of our remaining games.  

DAMN YOU, Backe, why did you have to get hurt this year???

At worst, we need to pick up one game in each of the last two series and force me to root for the Giants.  

And let's talk about that for a second.  Is there anyone in here that thinks for a second that Alou will play ANY of his regulars in that game?  You KNOW Bonds won't play.  DAMN YOU, ALOU.
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Limey

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2006, 11:44:08 am »
Quote:

And let's talk about that for a second.  Is there anyone in here that thinks for a second that Alou will play ANY of his regulars in that game?  You KNOW Bonds won't play.  DAMN YOU, ALOU.


MLB should make it clear to the Jonts that they have to at least look like they're trying.  However, Bonds in particular, will not be happy about having his offseason interrupted in this way.

The Astros will need to be a half game up if they are to force a tie.
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Alkie

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2006, 11:47:00 am »
Bonds probably won't even be with the club at that point.

Here's another question: does it amaze anyone else how many people are in PRISON because of Barry Bonds, yet Bonds continues to play baseball for millions of dollars?  I'm really going to hate rooting for him.  Or his team I guess.
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Limey

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2006, 11:52:22 am »
Quote:

Bonds probably won't even be with the club at that point.

Here's another question: does it amaze anyone else how many people are in PRISON because of Barry Bonds, yet Bonds continues to play baseball for millions of dollars?  I'm really going to hate rooting for him.  Or his team I guess.


Presumably, Bonds has offfered up significant portions of his wealth for these people to take the fall for him (the BALCO guy is in jail for refusing to testify about, not necessarily against Bonds).  Otherwise, I cannot see why any of these scumbags would do it.
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MusicMan

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2006, 11:55:00 am »
Quote:

The Astros will need to be a half game up if they are to force a tie.



I threw up when Morgan flat-out said "The Cardinals will absolutely win that game."

Of course, I'm throwing up a lot lately, so it could have been coincidence, but I don't think so.
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Bench

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2006, 11:55:31 am »
Quote:

Quote:

And let's talk about that for a second.  Is there anyone in here that thinks for a second that Alou will play ANY of his regulars in that game?  You KNOW Bonds won't play.  DAMN YOU, ALOU.


MLB should make it clear to the Jonts that they have to at least look like they're trying.  However, Bonds in particular, will not be happy about having his offseason interrupted in this way.

The Astros will need to be a half game up if they are to force a tie.



I figured they would absolutely love the idea of being the spoiler. Isn't that what non-contenders dream about this time of year? It's part of being a professional.
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Alkie

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2006, 11:58:05 am »
Quote:

It's part of being a professional.



Therein lies the rub.  Bonds ain't professional about anything.
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lc_db

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2006, 12:10:56 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

It's part of being a professional.



Therein lies the rub.  Bonds ain't professional about anything.



...but it IS another game that one might use to attain a "milestone"*.
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Limey

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2006, 12:27:07 pm »
Quote:

I threw up when Morgan flat-out said "The Cardinals will absolutely win that game."


Morgan also said that Biggio has to walk a tightrope between bases, and that the Falcons were going to the SuperBowl.
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toddthebod

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2006, 12:40:31 pm »
I would love to see Joe Niekro calling up Lance and saying:  "boy, you better hit two homeruns today cause my Astros need a win from you."
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Frobie

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2006, 12:49:19 pm »
Does anybody follow BP's Postseason Odds?  

For the Astros, as of the following dates:

9/19...0.96505%
9/20...0.20348
9/21...0.49349
9/22...0.77902
9/23...1.15731
9/24...1.92993
9/25...3.33454
9/26...7.90801

Not sayin' it's good for anything but entertainment value, but it's kind of interesting in a oddly precise sort of way.
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Alkie

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2006, 12:42:18 am »
Bonds announces he will play in the Los Angeles series and then go home.  

I'm not making this up.  

Why doesn't someone just do the world a favor and shoot this guy?
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austro

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2006, 12:58:04 am »
Quote:

Bonds announces he will play in the Los Angeles series and then go home.  

I'm not making this up.  

Why doesn't someone just do the world a favor and shoot this guy?


One would think that a commissioner who was actually interested in the "integrity of the game" might make a phone call or two.  Of course, with somebody with as little integrity as Bonds, making him stand out in the field probably won't matter anyway.
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Frobie

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2006, 01:03:50 am »
Not sayin' it's right, but I am surely not surprised.
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ValpoCory

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #18 on: September 27, 2006, 03:15:27 am »
Quote:

Bonds announces he will play in the Los Angeles series and then go home.  

I'm not making this up.  

Why doesn't someone just do the world a favor and shoot this guy?



Not only that, but Bonds announced he will not play in the current Arizona series in order to rest up for the Dodgers.
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Alkie

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #19 on: September 27, 2006, 10:02:55 am »
Well, I really REALLY hate to defend Bonds, but this one makes sense.  He's resting a series that means literally ironically nothing so that he can play in the series that absolutely has bearing on the playoffs.  

I wonder why he won't do the same when it's OUR division up for grabs.
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Limey

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2006, 10:54:54 am »
Quote:

Well, I really REALLY hate to defend Bonds, but this one makes sense.  He's resting a series that means literally ironically nothing so that he can play in the series that absolutely has bearing on the playoffs.  

I wonder why he won't do the same when it's OUR division up for grabs.


He's not actually doing what you said.  He's artificially loading up against the Dodgers at the expense of those deluded souls who still want to see him hit dingers....and the Astros.

If Baseball is entertainment, then he should play - the fans have paid to see him.  If it's a bona fide athletic competition, then he should play - anything less fucks with the integrity of the season.

Basically, he should play.
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Alkie

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #21 on: September 27, 2006, 10:58:24 am »
Well, basically, he should be in prison.  You say tamayto, I say sanquentin.
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Frobie

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #22 on: September 27, 2006, 11:00:54 am »
9/19...0.96505%
9/20...0.20348
9/21...0.49349
9/22...0.77902
9/23...1.15731
9/24...1.92993
9/25...3.33454
9/26...7.90801
9/27...15.13030

Getting interestinger and interestinger...
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Limey

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #23 on: September 27, 2006, 11:20:48 am »
Quote:

Getting interestinger and interestinger...


It would, if I had an effing clue as to what those numbers meant.  Me?  I just see blond...red...
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toddthebod

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #24 on: September 27, 2006, 11:30:12 am »
Just shows why games aren't played on paper.  Alkie.  I agreed with your assessment that the Cardinals would win last night because Carpenter was on the mound.  And but for a two stike shot down the baseline, he might have won.  But somehow the Padres got the win.  I've given up trying to disect the games beforehand.
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Frobie

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #25 on: September 27, 2006, 11:32:53 am »
Oops, sorry.  It's the likelihood (expressed as a percentage) of the Astros making the playoffs according to BP.  The methodology and such are described  here.
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Limey

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #26 on: September 27, 2006, 11:35:17 am »
Quote:

Just shows why games aren't played on paper.  Alkie.  I agreed with your assessment that the Cardinals would win last night because Carpenter was on the mound.  And but for a two stike shot down the baseline, he might have won.  But somehow the Padres got the win.  I've given up trying to disect the games beforehand.


La Genius is once again the Iraqi Tank Commander: can't move to his pen; can't stay with his starter.
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Alkie

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #27 on: September 27, 2006, 11:35:43 am »
Quote:

Just shows why games aren't played on paper.  Alkie.  I agreed with your assessment that the Cardinals would win last night because Carpenter was on the mound.  And but for a two stike shot down the baseline, he might have won.  But somehow the Padres got the win.  I've given up trying to disect the games beforehand.



Oh, COMPLETELY agree.  Understand, I wasn't for a SECOND saying "this is what I THINK will actually happen."  I was saying, if you look at the games on paper, this is who "SHOULD" win those games (based on the matchups).

The marquee pitching matchups always seem to be slug-fests and the Hall-of-Famer starting against a rookie almost always means put every dime you have on the rookie.
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Lefty

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #28 on: September 27, 2006, 02:09:28 pm »
Quote:

I wonder why he won't do the same when it's OUR division up for grabs.


Sayeth Alou:

"We would make people go to the game as an organization, and the league has to take a stand.  It's an important game for the National League and the integrity of the game to play."

Yet...

Outfielder Barry Bonds will likely play only Friday night and Sunday -- the regular-season finale -- against the Dodgers, according to Alou.

"We need to let the youngsters play," he said.

We'll see, I guess.

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Alkie

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Re: If They Played the Games On Paper:
« Reply #29 on: September 30, 2006, 06:38:49 pm »
And that's why the games are played on the field and not on paper.

Of the 9 games that have happened so far, the team that "should" have won is 4-5.

The reason I bring this up?  We "should" have lost tonight and tomorrow and the Cards have no business whatsoever losing tomorrow.  

Let's do this.

I don't want to have to watch Packers/Eagles.
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