I'm beginning to agree that Garner's an idiot

[HudsonHawk]

How can you not move Huff/Jimerson to 3B in the 9th tonight?  No excuse.  You statgeeks can rant and rave all you want about wasting outs, but the simple lack of fundemental baseball strategy has cost the Astros two wins in the last three games.

[Gizzmonic]

I just got back from the game...I thought the IBB to Howard in the 1st inning was a really stupid move.  It really seemed to screw up Clemens' timing.

[austro]

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How can you not move Huff/Jimerson to 3B in the 9th tonight?  No excuse.  You statgeeks can rant and rave all you want about wasting outs, but the simple lack of fundemental baseball strategy has cost the Astros two wins in the last three games.

But Scott isn't really a good bunter (at least I haven't seen him try, and I suspect there's a reason for that), and they were nearly out of players, so there's not a good bunter available to pinch hit in his place (who's going to play the outfield after you yank Scott; Bruntlett, I guess).  And Scott got a great pitch to punish, but he missed it.  What are you going to do?

[chuck]

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How can you not move Huff/Jimerson to 3B in the 9th tonight?  No excuse.  You statgeeks can rant and rave all you want about wasting outs, but the simple lack of fundemental baseball strategy has cost the Astros two wins in the last three games.

Maybe he knows that he doesn't have too many guys on the roster who can bunt worth a shit.

Maybe he wanted it to play out the way it did so that in the offseason he could point to the fact that the PH he had off the bench to win the game was the mighty Humberto Quintero.

Maybe he was so pissed that Lance got picked off that by the 9th he didn't give a fuck.

[ValpoCory]

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How can you not move Huff/Jimerson to 3B in the 9th tonight?  No excuse.  You statgeeks can rant and rave all you want about wasting outs, but the simple lack of fundemental baseball strategy has cost the Astros two wins in the last three games.

I agree.  You have to move him over.  I bet Garner was crossing his fingers for a 4-3 or a 3-1 groundout.

You mention two out of the last three games.  To which decision are you referring ... the one to pitch to Pujols?

[ValpoCory]

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How can you not move Huff/Jimerson to 3B in the 9th tonight?  No excuse.  You statgeeks can rant and rave all you want about wasting outs, but the simple lack of fundemental baseball strategy has cost the Astros two wins in the last three games.

Maybe he knows that he doesn't have too many guys on the roster who can bunt worth a shit.

Maybe he wanted it to play out the way it did so that in the offseason he could point to the fact that the PH he had off the bench to win the game was the mighty Humberto Quintero.

Maybe he was so pissed that Lance got picked off that by the 9th he didn't give a fuck.

I'm beginning to think the Round Rock Express advancing to the PCL Championship Series (even in getting swept) cost the Astros a game tonight.

Garner was down to Quintero and Bruntlett on the bench.  He knew that Ausmus was already removed, so he went with the slower Quintero in order to keep Bruntlett available for extra innings pinch hitting.

Meanwhile, the Phillies had about 9 pinch hitters available tonight, since their AAA team is done playing.

[HudsonHawk]

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But Scott isn't really a good bunter (at least I haven't seen him try, and I suspect there's a reason for that)

If you haven't seen him try, how do you know he isn't a good bunter?  Besides, if he can't bunt, the least he can do is try to get a pitch he can pull.

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, and they were nearly out of players, so there's not a good bunter available to pinch hit in his place (who's going to play the outfield after you yank Scott; Bruntlett, I guess).

Nearly out of players?  Garner sent up three pinch hitters right after that.  Can neither Bruntlett, Burke, or Lane play the outfield?  Besides, if you wanted to pinch hit to bunt, you've got a whole bench full of pitchers who do it all the time.  

But I wasn't asking to pinch hit for Scott, I just want him to move Jimerson to 3B.

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  And Scott got a great pitch to punish, but he missed it.

Huh?  He swung at a ball in his eyes on a 2-0 pitch.  With the tying run on 2B and no one out, Gordon got an out without having to throw a strike.  Pitiful.

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What are you going to do?

I'm not going to do anything, but I sure a shit wish Garner would.  That's two out of the last three the Astros have lost due to lack of fundemental offensive strategy.

[HudsonHawk]

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You mention two out of the last three games.  To which decision are you referring ... the one to pitch to Pujols?

No, the failure to move runners to 3B with no one out TWICE in that game.  Both times it cost them a run.  Had they executed, the Pujols hit wouldn't have mattered.

[HudsonHawk]

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Garner was down to Quintero and Bruntlett on the bench.  He knew that Ausmus was already removed, so he went with the slower Quintero in order to keep Bruntlett available for extra innings pinch hitting.

He was down to those two because he'd already used Palmeiro, Lamb, Burke, and Lane.  It wasn't as if he didn't have players on the bench tonight.  He just used them all.

[ValpoCory]

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You mention two out of the last three games.  To which decision are you referring ... the one to pitch to Pujols?

No, the failure to move runners to 3B with no one out TWICE in that game.  Both times it cost them a run.  Had they executed, the Pujols hit wouldn't have mattered.

Aah, Actually, Garner made that call three times (2nd, 4th, 7th).  Two of the three times (4th and 7th), the runner got to 3rd with less than two outs anyway.

When did Garner say bunt in that game?  With a runner on 1st and 0 out in the 8th.  They failed to score in that frame.  As Jim Deshaies says, "play for a run, lose by a run".

The bad news is, in tonight's game, Jimerson ended up at 3rd with less than two outs anyway, so Garner won't change.  What he fails to realize is that had Jimerson been moved over with a bunt, then maybe the inning happens differently and Jimerson scores.

[ValpoCory]

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Garner was down to Quintero and Bruntlett on the bench.  He knew that Ausmus was already removed, so he went with the slower Quintero in order to keep Bruntlett available for extra innings pinch hitting.

He was down to those two because he'd already used Palmeiro, Lamb, Burke, and Lane.  It wasn't as if he didn't have players on the bench tonight.  He just used them all.

True, but had Garner had a couple more pinch hit options, I bet Bruntlett gets sent up instead of Quintero.  That would have possibly burned both EB and Q had the game gone on, but Garner would have had further options.

Bruntlett has already come through this year in a bases loaded, 1 out, bottom of the 9th situation.

[HudsonHawk]

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Aah, Actually, Garner made that call three times (2nd, 4th, 7th).  Two of the three times (4th and 7th), the runner got to 3rd with less than two outs anyway.

Don't remember all three, but the one time it killed me was when Scott led off with a double (the 4th, I guess it was).  Burke struck out, then Bruntlett hit a long fly ball to CF, which moved Scott to 3B, but then there were two outs.  If you bunt Burke, Scott scores on the fly ball.

[ValpoCory]

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Aah, Actually, Garner made that call three times (2nd, 4th, 7th).  Two of the three times (4th and 7th), the runner got to 3rd with less than two outs anyway.

Don't remember all three, but the one time it killed me was when Scott led off with a double (the 4th, I guess it was).  Burke struck out, then Bruntlett hit a long fly ball to CF, which moved Scott to 3B, but then there were two outs.  If you bunt Burke, Scott scores on the fly ball.

That was the 2nd inning, the one time the runner did not get to 3rd with less than 2 outs.

[ValpoCory]

Our man Dave Clark is smarter than Phil Garner?

I've been following Game 4 of the Texas League Championship tonight.  Down by 1 in the 10th, the Hooks get a leadoff double and ...

Corpus Christi Bottom 10th

Jonathan Ash doubles (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Mitch Maier.
Jorge Cortes hits a sacrifice bunt. Jonathan Ash to 3rd. Jorge Cortes to 1st.
Josh Anderson grounds out, shortstop Angel Sanchez to first baseman Brett Groves. Jonathan Ash scores. Jorge Cortes to 2nd

Tie game!

The Link

[austro]

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If you haven't seen him try, how do you know he isn't a good bunter?  Besides, if he can't bunt, the least he can do is try to get a pitch he can pull.

Sorry, I didn't express myself well.  I should have said that I've seen a lot of Scott's ABs (both in RR and Houston) this year, and I don't remember him being asked to bunt. But you're right, he has to make sure that if he swings at a pitch, it's something he can pull.

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Nearly out of players?  Garner sent up three pinch hitters right after that.

Exactly. And he knew he would probably have to do that, because of the anemic sticks that follow Scott.  He probably had confidence in Scott, misplaced or not.

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But I wasn't asking to pinch hit for Scott, I just want him to move Jimerson to 3B.

Yup, and that's been the most frustrating aspect of this team this year.  In critical situations they simply don't produce in fundamental situations.  I realize that the other guys are trying too, but is it really that hard for a LH pull hitter to hit a ball to the right side?

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And Scott got a great pitch to punish, but he missed it.

Huh?  He swung at a ball in his eyes on a 2-0 pitch.  With the tying run on 2B and no one out, Gordon got an out without having to throw a strike.  Pitiful.

It looked like a hanging slider that was dropping down into the zone to me, but maybe it was higher than that. Regardless, the result was pitiful.

[stubbyc]

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How can you not move Huff/Jimerson to 3B in the 9th tonight?  No excuse.  You statgeeks can rant and rave all you want about wasting outs, but the simple lack of fundemental baseball strategy has cost the Astros two wins in the last three games.

Absurdity. Luke Scott's hitting .380something. He's fairly likely to get a hit himself As a left handed hitter he's fairly likely to pull the ball to the right side. He's capable of hitting it out of the ballpark and winning the game. He's capable of hitting an extra base hit and tying the game while putting himself in scoring position. If he walks you can have Burke sac bunt both of them into scoring position. This is all assuming that Luke Scott can even get a good bunt down.

You can complain about the stat geeks, but the numbers support letting Luke Scott there by a huge, huge, laughably huge margin.

[HudsonHawk]

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Absurdity. Luke Scott's hitting .380something. He's fairly likely to get a hit himself

He's twice as likely to make an out as he is to get a hit.  At least make it a productive out.  

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 As a left handed hitter he's fairly likely to pull the ball to the right side. He's capable of hitting it out of the ballpark and winning the game. He's capable of hitting an extra base hit and tying the game while putting himself in scoring position.

Then swing at a pitch you can hit.  

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 If he walks you can have Burke sac bunt both of them into scoring position.

Again, then don't swing at a 2-0 slider in your eyes.

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You can complain about the stat geeks, but the numbers support letting Luke Scott there by a huge, huge, laughably huge margin.

You can ballyhoo the stats all you want, but here are some numbers that you can't ignore...Phillies 4 Astros 3.  If you bunt in that situation, that doesn't happen.  Terrible mangaing.  Just downright terrible.

[mihoba]

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Terrible mangaing.  Just downright terrible.

I agree, but I had the biggest problem with the intentional walk IN THE FIRST FUCKING INNING at home.

Also, it appeared to me that Jimerson should have advanced to third on the slow roller, no one was covering third. Of course, I am limited in field of view due to television, but that's what I saw.

[BizidyDizidy]

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He's twice as likely to make an out as he is to get a hit.  At least make it a productive out.  

That's not true - his OBP is about .470, so his chance of making an out is about 50-50. He's hitting .370. Also, you don't consider the fact that he could make a productive out swinging the bat.

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Then swing at a pitch you can hit.

Okay, but what does that have to do with garner?

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Again, then don't swing at a 2-0 slider in your eyes.

Again, isn't the story around here not to blame managers for poor player execution

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You can ballyhoo the stats all you want, but here are some numbers that you can't ignore...Phillies 4 Astros 3.  If you bunt in that situation, that doesn't happen.  Terrible mangaing.  Just downright terrible.

If you bunt in that situation, the posts on the board are about the Astros being miserable about getting runners in from third with less than two outs. I don't understand why you act like it's automatic - I'd bet that our pitiful performance at it is what led Garner not to bunt in the first place.

[HudsonHawk]

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That's not true - his OBP is about .470, so his chance of making an out is about 50-50.

I meant he's twice as likely to not get a hit.  Stubby suggested that odds are he would get a hit.  It's about twice as likely that he won't get a hit.

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Also, you don't consider the fact that he could make a productive out swinging the bat.

I did consider that.

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Okay, but what does that have to do with garner?

Absolutely nothing.

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Again, isn't the story around here not to blame managers for poor player execution

Yes.  It's also the story around here to blame the manager for poor in-game decisions.

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If you bunt in that situation, the posts on the board are about the Astros being miserable about getting runners in from third with less than two outs.

I don't give a shit what the posts are on this board, only if the Astros win.  But if you bunt in that situation, you at least tie the game and at worst you go to extra innings.  

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 I don't understand why you act like it's automatic

Of course you don't.

[CJM]

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Terrible mangaing.  Just downright terrible.

...SNIP...

Also, it appeared to me that Jimerson should have advanced to third on the slow roller, no one was covering third. Of course, I am limited in field of view due to television, but that's what I saw.

It would have been a rather easy out.

[David in Jackson]

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How can you not move Huff/Jimerson to 3B in the 9th tonight?  No excuse.  You statgeeks can rant and rave all you want about wasting outs, but the simple lack of fundemental baseball strategy has cost the Astros two wins in the last three games.

Maybe he knows that he doesn't have too many guys on the roster who can bunt worth a shit.

Maybe he wanted it to play out the way it did so that in the offseason he could point to the fact that the PH he had off the bench to win the game was the mighty Humberto Quintero.

Maybe he was so pissed that Lance got picked off that by the 9th he didn't give a fuck.

I'm beginning to think the Round Rock Express advancing to the PCL Championship Series (even in getting swept) cost the Astros a game tonight.

Garner was down to Quintero and Bruntlett on the bench.  He knew that Ausmus was already removed, so he went with the slower Quintero in order to keep Bruntlett available for extra innings pinch hitting.

Meanwhile, the Phillies had about 9 pinch hitters available tonight, since their AAA team is done playing.

There is absolutely no excuse at all for having Quintero at the plate in that situation.  I thought from seeing the highlights that Quintero must have subbed for Ausmus after Brad had pulled for a PH or PR.  But he was a PH?  The last one on the bench?  Is this team carrying three catchers?  If not, why not?  Aren't we pretending to be playing for the wild card?

[Arky Vaughan]

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How can you not move Huff/Jimerson to 3B in the 9th tonight?  No excuse.  You statgeeks can rant and rave all you want about wasting outs, but the simple lack of fundemental baseball strategy has cost the Astros two wins in the last three games.

As a resident statgeek, I think it's worth pointing out that there are situations when it is worth trading an out for a base.  I believe last night was one of those occasions.

[David in Jackson]

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How can you not move Huff/Jimerson to 3B in the 9th tonight?  No excuse.  You statgeeks can rant and rave all you want about wasting outs, but the simple lack of fundemental baseball strategy has cost the Astros two wins in the last three games.

Maybe he knows that he doesn't have too many guys on the roster who can bunt worth a shit.

Maybe he wanted it to play out the way it did so that in the offseason he could point to the fact that the PH he had off the bench to win the game was the mighty Humberto Quintero.

Maybe he was so pissed that Lance got picked off that by the 9th he didn't give a fuck.

I'm beginning to think the Round Rock Express advancing to the PCL Championship Series (even in getting swept) cost the Astros a game tonight.

Garner was down to Quintero and Bruntlett on the bench.  He knew that Ausmus was already removed, so he went with the slower Quintero in order to keep Bruntlett available for extra innings pinch hitting.

Meanwhile, the Phillies had about 9 pinch hitters available tonight, since their AAA team is done playing.

There is absolutely no excuse at all for having Quintero at the plate in that situation.  I thought from seeing the highlights that Quintero must have subbed for Ausmus after Brad had pulled for a PH or PR.  But he was a PH?  The last one on the bench?  Is this team carrying three catchers?  If not, why not?  Aren't we pretending to be playing for the wild card?

Just read that we got two extra catchers on Saturday (Munson, Gimenez).  So, I assume we had only two last night.

[Alkie]

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Aren't we pretending to be playing for the wild card?

I'm not saying this in a jack-ass kind of way; but no, I don't really get the impression that we ARE pretending to be playing for the WC.  

Does anyone on the Astros, staff or players, appear to be all that interested at this point to you?  I think one of the mistakes a lot of us in here make is that the players are just these playoff-hungry machines.  I'm sure they want to win, win, win, but I bet you more of the players than not are very much looking forward to sitting in a boat or a deer stand on Oct 4, considering the miracle it would take to (a) make the playoffs and then (b) do anything once we're there.

[mihoba]

Bullshit, I don't see it. I see them pressing. Money is at stake here, and pride.

Fuck the Wild Card. Sweep the Reds and Cards, and hope like hell the Jakes tank against Milwaukee.

Go down in flames, dammit!

[Alkie]

You're drunk.

There are 30 games to be played between the Astros and Padres.  22 of those have to result in Astros wins or Padres losses for the Astros to make the playoffs.  

Ain't happenin' man.

[mihoba]

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You're drunk.

There are 30 games to be played between the Astros and Padres.  22 of those have to result in Astros wins or Padres losses for the Astros to make the playoffs.  

Ain't happenin' man.

Padres? Are they in our division?

Jakes are gonna tank. Believe it. Eight game lead w/15 to play. History in the making. Look at their rotation, Carpenter can only start 3 more games, including one against the good guys next Thursday. Look at their pen, Izzy is done.

LaRussian is the tank commander, after all.

[Alkie]

So, you think of the 30 games between the Astros and Cardinals, of which 24 things have to go our way (I'll give you that a 4 game sweep of the Cards means 8 of those 24 right there)...you think that sounds reasonable for a team that isn't even all that close to a .500 team?

Ain't happenin' man.  Only 25% of the NL teams make the playoffs.  We ain't one of them.

[mihoba]

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you think that sounds reasonable for a team that isn't even all that close to a .500 team?

Reasonable? No. Likely? No.

How fitting it would be for the Jakes to join the '64 Phillies (6? game lead w/ 12 to play) as the greatest downfall in baseball history. I'm rooting for them.