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Author Topic: Alkie Magic Numbers  (Read 1917 times)

Alkie

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Alkie Magic Numbers
« on: September 15, 2006, 06:26:36 pm »
I've killed the Tote Board, but where it used to live is now Alkie's Magic Numbers.  Not that anyone gives a shit at this point, but it'll tell you what our magic numbers are to finish ahead of each team, who we'll definitely finish behind and who we'll definitely finish ahead of.  

The Numbers
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austro

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2006, 06:57:46 pm »
"Loc: West U"

That accounting gig must be working out pretty well.
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Bench

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2006, 07:09:06 pm »
It took you half a month just to come up with that?

Just kidding. Even more helpful than magic numbers, for us folks who don't like to think for ourselves, is comparing possible records for the remaining games. For instance, if the Padres play .500 for the rest of the season (8-8), the Astros would have to go 15-2 to catch them.

Ouch. I just depressed myself. The end of the season is frighteningly near.
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mihoba

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2006, 07:19:09 pm »
Quote:

For instance, if the Padres play .500 for the rest of the season (8-8), the Astros would have to go 15-2 to catch them.

Ouch. I just depressed myself. The end of the season is frighteningly near.



Not quite that bad, is it? Padres are 76-69, add 9-8 makes it 85-77.

Astros are 71-74,  shoot for 14-3. Feel better?
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austro

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2006, 07:47:43 pm »
Quote:

Not quite that bad, is it? Padres are 76-69, add 9-8 makes it 85-77.

Astros are 71-74,  shoot for 14-3. Feel better?


He was probably going for the outright win, rather than playing for the one-game tie-breaker.  Personally, I'll take either one.

The good news is that all of the teams ahead of the Astros are on the road this weekend (including, obviously, the Phillies, whom the Astros are hosting).  I'd feel better about that if this year's Astros had last year's home record.
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I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
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But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

Bench

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2006, 12:07:46 am »
Quote:

Quote:

Not quite that bad, is it? Padres are 76-69, add 9-8 makes it 85-77.

Astros are 71-74,  shoot for 14-3. Feel better?


He was probably going for the outright win, rather than playing for the one-game tie-breaker.  Personally, I'll take either one.

The good news is that all of the teams ahead of the Astros are on the road this weekend (including, obviously, the Phillies, whom the Astros are hosting).  I'd feel better about that if this year's Astros had last year's home record.



The tiebreaker would be great, I just suck at that countin' skill. That being said, I did the research to see that the Pads have (including tonight, Friday) only 16 games left. So 8-8 would do it, but now the good guys have to go 14-2.

I can usually see the logic behind Gar's moves, but why pinch hit Q instead of Bruntlett in that situation? Usually Gar goes for the win, extra innings be damned, which is a strategy I agree with. However, hitting Q instead of Chin threw me for a loop.
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HudsonHawk

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2006, 12:13:49 am »
Quote:


I can usually see the logic behind Gar's moves, but why pinch hit Q instead of Bruntlett in that situation? Usually Gar goes for the win, extra innings be damned, which is a strategy I agree with. However, hitting Q instead of Chin threw me for a loop.




Q had to come in the game anyway.  If he uses Bruntlett to pinch hit, he's out of position players for extra innings.  I'm guessing he figured he needed to save at least one guy in case of that, and Bruntlett is more flexible than Q.
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Bench

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2006, 12:16:13 am »
Quote:

Quote:


I can usually see the logic behind Gar's moves, but why pinch hit Q instead of Bruntlett in that situation? Usually Gar goes for the win, extra innings be damned, which is a strategy I agree with. However, hitting Q instead of Chin threw me for a loop.




Q had to come in the game anyway.  If he uses Bruntlett to pinch hit, he's out of position players for extra innings.  I'm guessing he figured he needed to save at least one guy in case of that, and Bruntlett is more flexible than Q.



That certainly makes sense, but after watching Gar manage for the last two and a half seasons, it seemed to me that his priority would be for getting that game to extras, not planning in case it did get to extras.
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HudsonHawk

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2006, 12:21:15 am »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:


I can usually see the logic behind Gar's moves, but why pinch hit Q instead of Bruntlett in that situation? Usually Gar goes for the win, extra innings be damned, which is a strategy I agree with. However, hitting Q instead of Chin threw me for a loop.




Q had to come in the game anyway.  If he uses Bruntlett to pinch hit, he's out of position players for extra innings.  I'm guessing he figured he needed to save at least one guy in case of that, and Bruntlett is more flexible than Q.



That certainly makes sense, but after watching Gar manage for the last two and a half seasons, it seemed to me that his priority would be for getting that game to extras, not planning in case it did get to extras.




Well, I think you saw that with the three pinch hitters right in a row (Burke, Lane, and Q).  I guess you could say he shot *most* of his wad there in the 9th, but was holding back a little for just in case.  

But boy, the Phillies tried to gift wrap one for the Astros, and the Astros just would not take it.  They got three bases on errors.  All it took was one "productive out".  But NOOOOOOOOOOO...
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austro

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2006, 12:32:17 am »
Quote:

But boy, the Phillies tried to gift wrap one for the Astros, and the Astros just would not take it.  They got three bases on errors.  All it took was one "productive out".  But NOOOOOOOOOOO...


I think that's pretty much the theme song for this season. Very frustrating.
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I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

austro

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2006, 12:36:34 am »
Oh, and by the way: I want to give some props to Jimerson.  It would have been very easy for him to be forced out at 3rd on that dropped ball, but he kept his head up as he headed back to 2nd, and then turned around and busted ass to 3rd when he saw that the ridiculously improbable had actually happened.
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I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
Oh look out Lennon here I come - land ahoy-hoy-hoy

HudsonHawk

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2006, 12:53:46 am »
Quote:

Oh, and by the way: I want to give some props to Jimerson.  It would have been very easy for him to be forced out at 3rd on that dropped ball, but he kept his head up as he headed back to 2nd, and then turned around and busted ass to 3rd when he saw that the ridiculously improbable had actually happened.



Yeah, he had a bit of a bad read off the bat, but he kept his eye on the play and hustled hard to get to 3B.
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Limey

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2006, 04:32:50 am »
At this point, the only meaningful calculation is figuring out what the Astros need to do to finish at or above .500.
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Alkie

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2006, 11:02:09 am »
Yeah, I think I'm done with calculating anything about this season.  

I don't know why I thought to myself "you know, we'll sweep the Phils here at home and then it'll sure be interesting!"

Blah, blah, blah, not mathematically eliminated...so what.  No shame in it...we ain't goin' nowhere this October.  

In related news, I don't think I've ever been so excited about a free agency season.  If what everyone says is right, we have a chance to pick up any and all major pieces that are available this offseason.  Come mid-February, I expect there to be a lot of excitement around this club.
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Fredia

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2006, 12:47:58 pm »
hopefull good excitement and not the usual bitch fest.. but by february we all will be so desperate for anthing baseball the rumors will fly.. a rod fo lidge.. yea that would be a good start...
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Jacksonian

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Re: Alkie Magic Numbers
« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2006, 12:56:24 pm »
Quote:

Yeah, I think I'm done with calculating anything about this season.  

I don't know why I thought to myself "you know, we'll sweep the Phils here at home and then it'll sure be interesting!"

Blah, blah, blah, not mathematically eliminated...so what.  No shame in it...we ain't goin' nowhere this October.  

In related news, I don't think I've ever been so excited about a free agency season.  If what everyone says is right, we have a chance to pick up any and all major pieces that are available this offseason.  Come mid-February, I expect there to be a lot of excitement around this club.



You could count down until the Astros secure a record in the bottom 15.  (I think they have the 13th worst record in baseball right now.) That would guarantee the Astros a 1st round pick next June no matter how many arb-offered free agents the Astros signed.

What?  It's my schtick around here.
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