Keep an eye on Ernesto late next week (non-bb)

[das]

It's very early but the upper atmosphere looks to be well primed for rapid strengthing in the Gulf.  Please don't go on vacation without a weather radio from the North Gulf Coast around the horn to Brownsville.  More granular froecasts will be available in around 36 hours.

[EasTexAstro]

Thanks, das.

[Dobro]

das, what do you consider "North Gulf Coast?"

[das]

North Gulf Coast is the FLA panhandle to the NE Texas Coast. Hate to be so broad but its hard to predict where a small storm (tropical systems are relatively small from a meteorological standpoint) will go when it is in its infancy, thousands of miles out and the steering mechanisms do not even exist yet. There is a mid latitude ridge building in over the central CONUS and, this far out, the models resolve this feature as a straight line of blocking high pressure that would keep the storm on a westerly track. Experience shows that, in reality, little weaknesses form in the barrier and that storms *can* dive north into any of these. They are near impossible to predict more than 60 hours out and the storm will just be in the Gulf late next week.

[astrojo]

FYI everyone should go gas up today before prices start going up - 2.66 this am.  I'm sure by Monday or Tuesday it will be back up to 2.85+.

[Phil_in_CS]

Quote:
FYI everyone should go gas up today before prices start going up - 2.66 this am.  I'm sure by Monday or Tuesday it will be back up to 2.85+.

Seems like people have forgotten the old preperations. When I was learning to drive back in the 70's, down in Orange county, my folks always said to keep a half tank during hurricane season, and keep it topped off if there's a storm in the gulf.

The time to get your supplies in is well before the storm. When the county judge says 'evacuate' its too late.

[Edited to Add]
Thanks das! you were spot on for Rita last year, well before Sabine Pass was the offical target.

[Fredia]

rita .. that names still makes me nervous. my child was at nsu in natchitoches when that one came through.and lost powe and had tornadoes and tropical storm type winds.. she just went back to school i hope this does not become a repeat
but you are right even growing up in zwolle you did the common sense things like keep canned food fil up the car and tub.. even if the chances where not that great

[cougar]

Well, I've seen a Thursday or Friday landfall with a possible Category 3 storm.  Storm track is still wide open, with predictions ranging anywhere from Florida to Louisiana.  Everyone along the coast take care and get ready.  And do not worry.  Should your house end up damaged, hopefully I will be there to make sure you get your money as speedily as possible.  With my percentage, of course.

[Navin R Johnson]

Thursday would be much better than Saturday.  If we got to get hit, might as well get a day or two off work!

[Frobie]

Quote:
Thursday would be much better than Saturday.  If we got to get hit, might as well get a day or two off work!

Mr. Hartounian will understand.

[astrojo]

Wow, what a difference a day makes.  Poor Florida. Tampa is looking more like it could be in trouble.  Ty are you still in Tampa?  Anyone else?

[das]

Heh, that's the whole reason I became a meteorologist.  As a kid, I tried to better predict when winter storms in the mid-atlantic might make me miss school since the forecasters did such a poor job.  Little did I know then that meteorology required significant, difficult schooling...

Latest models have bent way to the right with US landfall near the big bend of FLA.  Like I said yesterday, the models will be all over the place for at least another day.  Here's an easy-to-read version of Andy's link:
The Link
Click "large" if you have a big monitor.

Cougar, the intensity forecasts this far our carry significant climatology (historical meteorology) data so will be near imposible to output a strong storm since they are just so rare.  Most forecaster discussions over the last 12 hours say the storm "has the significant potential to be a major storm" as it recovers from the effects of Cuba in the Gulf.

[cougar]

Quote:
Heh, that's the whole reason I became a meteorologist.  As a kid, I tried to better predict when winter storms in the mid-atlantic might make me miss school since the forecasters did such a poor job.  Little did I know then that meteorology required significant, difficult schooling...

Latest models have bent way to the right with US landfall near the big bend of FLA.  Like I said yesterday, the models will be all over the place for at least another day.  Here's an easy-to-read version of Andy's link:
The Link
Click "large" if you have a big monitor.

Cougar, the intensity forecasts this far our carry significant climatology (historical meteorology) data so will be near imposible to output a strong storm since they are just so rare.  Most forecaster discussions over the last 12 hours say the storm "has the significant potential to be a major storm" as it recovers from the effects of Cuba in the Gulf.

I'll take your word for it.  All I'm concerned about is the damage part of it.  

BTW since I'm an insurance adjuster and my bank account depends on storm (wind) damage, would it be improper if I start chuckling and rubbing my hands like Mr. Burns?

[mihoba]

Quote:
BTW since I'm an insurance adjuster and my bank account depends on storm (wind) damage, would it be improper if I start chuckling and rubbing my hands like Mr. Burns?

Yes it would, unless you want your neck 'adjusted' by my FEMA purchased chain saw.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Quote:

BTW since I'm an insurance adjuster and my bank account depends on storm (wind) damage, would it be improper if I start chuckling and rubbing my hands like Mr. Burns?

Best to leave your joy contained to loins tingling.

[ASTROCREEP]

The Weather Channel's got it going for Florida. Hope this is accurate, sorry Ty in Tampa

The Link

[Ty in Tampa]

Yes I am. I just saw the new 5-day cone and it looks to come right up our alley. Damn.

[Phil_in_CS]

Quote:

Quote:
BTW since I'm an insurance adjuster and my bank account depends on storm (wind) damage, would it be improper if I start chuckling and rubbing my hands like Mr. Burns?

Yes it would, unless you want your neck 'adjusted' by my FEMA purchased chain saw.

After he adjusts your neck, we can bury you in the blue tarp left over at mom and dad's house.

[cougar]

I love being a pariah.

[das]

Nice McForecast.

[strosrays]

Quote:
I love being a pariah.

OK, a "good" adjuster story.  

When my adjuster came out, sometime after our reoccupation of Jefferson Co., the first ten minutes he bitched about his experience with the Allstate adjuster who came out to assess his homeowners claim (my coverage is with a surplus lines carrier, who this guy contracted with.)  Then we walked around my house and he showed me how to A.) claim my privacy fence (which had been flattened) as part of the house ("Just attach this edge to the masonry with a couple of temporary lag bolts, and then it is technically part of the house"), and B.) which civil engineer I could call who would come out and certify my foundation failure in the NW corner was caused by Rita, and not the big oak tree growing too close to the house.

My roof was basically unscathed, but he also told me if I wanted a new one to climb up there and tear 20-30 shingles off and toss them around the yard.  I didn't do it because the roof was only two years old and fine, and getting a contractor to "repair" it at that point would've been a long-range proposition, at best.

Anyway, both his other suggestions worked, and saved me about $6,000.00 or so.  I'd never met the guy previously, but when he is in the area now he'll stop by and we'll slam down a few cold ones, sitting out on the back deck, looking at my new fence.

[chuck]

So it looks like along about the late innings of tomorrow's game Ernesto should make his cheerful appearance in my neighborhood.

The link.

It's a laugh a minute around here, let me tell you. I think this will make, what, the fifth in the last three years? I've lost count.

[Limey]

Quote:
Anyway, both his other suggestions worked, and saved me about $6,000.00 or so.  I'd never met the guy previously, but when he is in the area now he'll stop by and we'll slam down a few cold ones, sitting out on the back deck, looking at my new fence.

I'm not getting up in your face on this or anything, but one of the reasons we don't have mold coverage in Texas anymore is because a bunch of carpet cleaning firms annointed themselves as "mold abatement specialists", then went around assessing major mold damage in people's houses that could be turned into a new kitchen when all that was needed was some cleaning, drying and painting.  Mold claims spiralled out of control and companies withdrew the coverage.

Just to balance this out, a year or so ago the Texas insurance carriers were campaigning to be allowed to  increase their tariffs.  They were projecting out huge losses over the next ten years based on recent loss experience.  Of course, that recent loss experience included mold abatement claims, which they now excluded.  They didn't adjust the figures for the new coverage or lack thereof (accidentally, I'm sure...)

Bottom line, insurance companies will try and stiff you, but it's everyone's premiums that go into the pot to pay the claims, so if you fiddle your claim it costs everyone.

[Ty in Tampa]

Miami? Let's hope Cuba breaks it up as much or more than Haiti did.

I personally have enjoyed watching the cone move east.

[chuck]

Quote:
Miami? Let's hope Cuba breaks it up as much or more than Haiti did.

I personally have enjoyed watching the cone move east.

Miami Beach, yeah. With the exception of Wilma the other storms have not hit this area too terribly hard. I don't get very worked up about a Cat 1 or 2, but the possibility of a prolonged power outage is quite real. Hard to complain too much though in comparison to what others have to deal with.

[das]

"I personally have enjoyed watching the cone move east."

It's trending back to the west a bit but the storm took the perfect self-destructive path through the Carribean and hit just about every tall peak along the way so it has been badly crippled.  A quick thank you to our friends in Haiti and Cuba.  It will recover over the Straights of FLA but, happily, there just will not be enough time for it to spin up.  Should bring some beneficial rain to the *very* dry Central Penninsula.  And, blow some pool-side furniture around.

3.5 games out after tonight.  I can feel it...