Author Topic: WBC Tiebreaker calculus (Read 2285 times)

Bench · « **on:** March 09, 2006, 07:26:16 pm »

Does anyone understand the tie-breaker scenario being tossed around for US and Mexico?

While two way ties are broken by head to head, I don't understand what the basis is for breaking three way ties. I've seen the reports that if Mexico wins tonight 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1, the US is out. If Mexico wins tonight in nine innings and scores 5 runs, somehoe the US is in. And it goes on.

What is the theoretical basis? Like most tournaments, I assumed the tiebreaker would be run differential (like goal differential in UEFA, World Cup and in the Olympic hockey tourney). What is the standard? It's not runs scored, is it runs allowed? But why would Mexico winning and scoring more runs result in not going through? I'm confused.

MusicMan · « **Reply #1 on:** March 09, 2006, 07:33:11 pm »

The TB is runs allowed against the tied teams. This was to provide an incentive to keep pitching, even in a blowout.

If Mexico were to win by scoring one run, then the US would have the most runs allowed against the other two teams (8 for US, 7 for Canada, 3 for Mexico); thus, Canada and Mexico advance.

If Mexico were to win by scoring two runs, then the US and Canada tie on that tiebreaker, and Canada advances via their head-to-head win.

If Mexico wins by scoring three or more runs, then Canada loses the tiebreaker with nine or more runs allowed.

Bench · « **Reply #2 on:** March 09, 2006, 07:41:42 pm »

Ah ha. Thank you. That's actually a pretty clever tie-breaker.

Bench · « **Reply #3 on:** March 09, 2006, 09:29:30 pm »

Well, it's moot now. The Mexicans just dropped a four spot in the first, so it's win and in against the South Africans.

Golden Sombrero · « **Reply #4 on:** March 09, 2006, 09:33:37 pm »

I don't think it's over yet. Team USA needs a win tomorrow, plus a win by Canada of any margin, or a win by Mexico by a margin of 3 or more, unless it goes to extra innings. Right?

Bench · « **Reply #5 on:** March 09, 2006, 09:38:47 pm »

Quote:

I don't think it's over yet. Team USA needs a win tomorrow, plus a win by Canada of any margin, or a win by Mexico by a margin of 3 or more, unless it goes to extra innings. Right?

The US just needs to win tomorrow and either a Canada win tonight or for the Mexicans to win and score 3+ runs.

Since Mexico has scored 3+ runs, it's done. Assuming the US wins tomorrow (which is a major assumption since it's Clemens starting a big "playoff" game), then they join the winner tonight in the next round. If it's Canada, US is the second seed. If it's Mexico, US is the the top seed.

There's probably some obscure extra-innings wrinkle with which I'm not familiar, but I haven't seen anything about that.

Golden Sombrero · « **Reply #6 on:** March 09, 2006, 09:45:42 pm »

Gotcha. Thanks for the elucidation. Let's git-er-done on South Africa tomorrow.

Bench · « **Reply #7 on:** March 09, 2006, 10:59:25 pm »

Actually, I was wrong about the seeding. The seeding is also based on runs allowed rather than head to head. Therefore, at this point, it seems if the US wins tomorrow, they'll still be the second seed.

Fredia · « **Reply #8 on:** March 10, 2006, 12:05:57 am »

all very confusing.. but like in the great scene from the most undertated move "The Cutting Edge"the best skaters get low scores so no olympics but when the skating twins get caught up in the liderhosesn and the coach says "We are in"
well thankfully canada got caught up in the tequilla bottle tonight and the usa can skate on to the next round

Golden Sombrero · « **Reply #9 on:** March 10, 2006, 12:11:44 am »

Bud Selig called in a favor with Team Canada. In the next week an anonymous donor will give the Mounties the finest Arabian steeds alive. And Molsen Ice will be the only beer available in MLB stadiums. /tinfoil hat

MRaup

Re: WBC Tiebreaker calculus